Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, May 30th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana | CWS | NYM | 271.1 | 3.08 | 3.58 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 21.2% | 5.0% | 0.56 | 1.49 |
| Harvey | NYM | CWS | 242.2 | 3.45 | 3.49 | 1.17 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 0.96 | 1.24 | |
| Samardzija | SFG | ATL | 285 | 4.36 | 4.05 | 1.24 | 60.0% | 18.9% | 5.5% | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | SFG | 114 | 5.29 | 4.19 | 1.56 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 1.74 | 0.83 | |
| Wright | BOS | BAL | 133.1 | 3.38 | 4.35 | 1.21 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 1.01 | 1.06 | |
| Wilson | BAL | BOS | 78.2 | 3.66 | 4.86 | 1.25 | 10.7% | 6.4% | 0.80 | 1.56 | |
| Martinez | STL | MIL | 232.2 | 3.29 | 3.61 | 1.27 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 0.70 | 2.05 | |
| Guerra | MIL | STL | 34 | 3.71 | 3.92 | 1.24 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 0.79 | 1.00 | |
| Wood | LAD | CHC | 241 | 3.88 | 3.98 | 1.33 | 58.3% | 19.0% | 7.4% | 0.75 | 1.84 |
| Hammel | CHC | LAD | 224.2 | 3.36 | 3.62 | 1.16 | 47.4% | 23.6% | 6.6% | 1.04 | 1.08 |
| Santana | MIN | OAK | 149 | 4.05 | 4.38 | 1.35 | 38.9% | 18.5% | 8.2% | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Graveman | OAK | MIN | 162.2 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 1.47 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 1.38 | 1.78 | |
| Straily | CIN | COL | 71 | 3.55 | 4.28 | 1.20 | 14.3% | 21.9% | 10.6% | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| Bettis | COL | CIN | 175.2 | 4.46 | 4.09 | 1.37 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 0.92 | 1.75 | |
| McHugh | HOU | ARI | 256.1 | 4.14 | 3.91 | 1.34 | 42.9% | 20.0% | 6.0% | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| Escobar | ARI | HOU | |||||||||
| Cashner | SDP | SEA | 225.1 | 4.43 | 4.16 | 1.44 | 75.0% | 19.7% | 8.5% | 0.92 | 1.55 |
| Karns | SEA | SDP | 198 | 3.64 | 3.91 | 1.28 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.14 | 1.15 | |
| Lewis | TEX | CLE | 268.2 | 4.35 | 4.42 | 1.22 | 11.8% | 16.7% | 4.9% | 1.21 | 0.76 |
| Tomlin | CLE | TEX | 116.2 | 3.16 | 3.67 | 0.90 | 23.1% | 20.6% | 3.1% | 1.70 | 0.93 |
| Roark | WAS | PHI | 174 | 3.78 | 4.01 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 17.5% | 6.8% | 1.09 | 1.79 |
| Hellickson | PHI | WAS | 202.2 | 4.44 | 3.95 | 1.30 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 1.17 | |
| Nova | NYY | TOR | 131 | 4.67 | 4.25 | 1.33 | 25.0% | 15.2% | 6.7% | 1.24 | 1.86 |
| Estrada | TOR | NYY | 239.2 | 3.04 | 4.54 | 1.05 | 27.8% | 19.0% | 8.1% | 1.13 | 0.65 |
| Locke | PIT | MIA | 219.2 | 4.63 | 4.40 | 1.45 | 66.7% | 16.7% | 8.7% | 0.94 | 1.90 |
| Nicolino | MIA | PIT | 109 | 4.13 | 5.63 | 1.28 | 7.8% | 7.1% | 0.99 | 1.21 | |
| Andriese | TBR | KCR | 93 | 3.68 | 4.11 | 1.20 | 17.1% | 6.2% | 0.87 | 1.37 | |
| Kennedy | KCR | TBR | 221.2 | 4.06 | 3.67 | 1.26 | 47.6% | 24.4% | 7.5% | 1.58 | 0.94 |
| Verlander | DET | LAA | 198.1 | 3.58 | 3.83 | 1.11 | 35.0% | 22.9% | 6.8% | 0.95 | 0.76 |
| Chacin | LAA | DET | 70.2 | 4.46 | 3.98 | 1.30 | 18.2% | 19.3% | 7.6% | 1.27 | 1.85 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
There isn’t a pitcher available today who even earns consideration for the all-in tier. This isn’t a case of context, as it’s just a weak slate of arms, and the two players who might have had All-in aspirations prior to the campaign (Matt Harvey and Carlos Martinez) have been through such struggles that they fell below the raise threshold. The ownership should be spread around the pitcher pool today, and gamers should have enough money leftover to stack Coors or jam the lineup with All-Star bats.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jeff Samardzija SF (at ATL) – Facing the hapless Braves certainly helps his case, but the Shark is at the top of the pitcher food chain largely on his own merit. He has allowed just one earned run in four of his last five starts, with the outlier being a two-run effort, and Samardzija has pitched 6.2 or more innings in each of his five starts in May and topped out at eight full frames three different times, bringing his ERA down to 2.54 for the season. His last two turns came against the Padres and Samardzija didn’t falter, giving him a nice run of easy opponents to help pad his stats, a very necessary change-of-pace from the recurring beating of last season.
Jose Quintana CHW (at NYM) – We don’t roster Quintana for the strikeouts, despite the fact that he has a strong 60 Ks in 65.0 innings pitched this season, but he has struck out a pedestrian five batters in four of his five starts this month. What he does is keep the ball in the yard – one homer allowed this season – and restrict the walks, as he has no more than two free passes in any of five May starts and 12 walks on the campaign. He has thrown 6.0 or more innings in nine consecutive turns, including the four-run “disappointment” that he had against the Royals two starts ago, which was the only start since his first outing of the year that missed the qualifications for a quality start – and he was only one out shy in his opener.
Justin Verlander DET (at LAA) – On May 3, Verlander gave up seven runs to Cleveland, with just two strikeouts against eight hits and three walks in 5.0 innings. He left the game with a 6.49 ERA. In the four starts since, Verlander has gone at least 7.0 frames and struck out at least eight batters in each turn. The combined tally since the early-May disaster: a 1.19 ERA through 30.1 innings, with 37 strikeouts and just 16 hits (including 1 home run) allowed. He has a knack for walking two or three batters in every ballgame, and his last two starts (with 10 strikeouts apiece) came against the meager offenses of the Twins and Phillies, but the fact that he also shut down the Orioles in Baltimore provides some optimism that he can keep rolling into tonight’s matchup with the Angels.
Nate Karns SEA (vs. SD) – Karns is the beneficiary of the Padre bump, but he also deserves some recognition based on his own performance, particularly on a thin slate like that of today. He has struck out exactly a batter per inning over 51.0 frames this season, though he hasn’t racked up more than five Ks in any of his last three starts. The walks were a problem last season and continue to be a problem now, though he has tamed the walk count (8 total) over his last five turns. The problem is his expected innings count, as Karns has only finished the seventh inning in one of his starts this season and has only pitched more than 5.1 frames in four of nine. The low counts are due to a combination of his pitch-count inefficiency and a limit to his pitch-count each game, as he’s only been allowed to thrw more than 95 pitches three times this year.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana | 0.268 | 3.27 | 0.309 | 3.02 | 0.241 | 0.716 | 0.320 | 2.92 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 21.2% |
| Harvey | 0.327 | 4.00 | 0.263 | 2.94 | 0.251 | 0.700 | 0.298 | 3.35 | 0.244 | 0.01 | 23.2% |
| Samardzija | 0.344 | 5.33 | 0.289 | 3.50 | 0.254 | 0.676 | 0.297 | 3.90 | 0.258 | 0.00 | 18.9% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.412 | 5.86 | 0.347 | 4.83 | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.344 | 4.91 | 0.301 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Wright | 0.281 | 3.28 | 0.298 | 3.45 | 0.257 | 0.760 | 0.256 | 4.16 | 0.224 | 0.01 | 19.1% |
| Wilson | 0.311 | 3.50 | 0.300 | 3.86 | 0.271 | 0.763 | 0.268 | 4.25 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 10.7% |
| Martinez | 0.334 | 4.20 | 0.263 | 2.42 | 0.255 | 0.713 | 0.305 | 3.41 | 0.241 | 0.01 | 23.2% |
| Guerra | 0.306 | 3.77 | 0.292 | 3.66 | 0.264 | 0.756 | 0.295 | 3.45 | 0.234 | 0.03 | 24.1% |
| Wood | 0.263 | 3.61 | 0.327 | 3.97 | 0.241 | 0.713 | 0.313 | 3.61 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 19.0% |
| Hammel | 0.313 | 2.79 | 0.290 | 3.80 | 0.245 | 0.725 | 0.283 | 3.60 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 23.6% |
| Santana | 0.333 | 4.81 | 0.312 | 3.32 | 0.250 | 0.702 | 0.298 | 4.06 | 0.256 | 0.01 | 18.5% |
| Graveman | 0.338 | 3.40 | 0.357 | 5.54 | 0.242 | 0.695 | 0.307 | 4.91 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 15.8% |
| Straily | 0.292 | 3.82 | 0.290 | 3.24 | 0.270 | 0.770 | 0.238 | 4.31 | 0.202 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Bettis | 0.318 | 4.76 | 0.335 | 4.17 | 0.242 | 0.693 | 0.307 | 3.91 | 0.262 | 0.01 | 18.7% |
| McHugh | 0.309 | 4.25 | 0.332 | 4.04 | 0.267 | 0.745 | 0.326 | 3.56 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 20.0% |
| Escobar | 0.242 | 0.738 | |||||||||
| Cashner | 0.360 | 4.94 | 0.316 | 4.01 | 0.246 | 0.729 | 0.323 | 3.97 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 19.7% |
| Karns | 0.302 | 2.95 | 0.310 | 4.39 | 0.239 | 0.675 | 0.288 | 4.01 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 23.5% |
| Lewis | 0.326 | 4.36 | 0.304 | 4.35 | 0.252 | 0.726 | 0.285 | 4.22 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Tomlin | 0.231 | 2.14 | 0.325 | 4.06 | 0.257 | 0.735 | 0.216 | 4.41 | 0.209 | 0.01 | 20.6% |
| Roark | 0.328 | 3.42 | 0.302 | 4.09 | 0.244 | 0.676 | 0.289 | 4.23 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 17.5% |
| Hellickson | 0.342 | 4.28 | 0.327 | 4.55 | 0.245 | 0.711 | 0.295 | 4.30 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 20.5% |
| Nova | 0.360 | 5.23 | 0.311 | 4.17 | 0.259 | 0.776 | 0.286 | 4.69 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 15.2% |
| Estrada | 0.277 | 3.08 | 0.266 | 3.00 | 0.246 | 0.733 | 0.215 | 4.26 | 0.197 | 0.00 | 19.0% |
| Locke | 0.336 | 5.54 | 0.328 | 4.35 | 0.277 | 0.743 | 0.308 | 4.27 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Nicolino | 0.311 | 4.50 | 0.328 | 4.03 | 0.257 | 0.715 | 0.260 | 4.90 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 7.8% |
| Andriese | 0.309 | 4.17 | 0.277 | 3.29 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.277 | 3.83 | 0.244 | 0.01 | 17.1% |
| Kennedy | 0.340 | 4.22 | 0.332 | 3.90 | 0.244 | 0.706 | 0.293 | 4.47 | 0.247 | 0.01 | 24.4% |
| Verlander | 0.266 | 2.82 | 0.299 | 4.39 | 0.254 | 0.715 | 0.271 | 3.54 | 0.224 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Chacin | 0.337 | 5.30 | 0.296 | 3.60 | 0.269 | 0.743 | 0.282 | 4.32 | 0.249 | 0.01 | 19.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jason Hammel CHC (vs. LAD) – Hammel is coming off his longest start of the season, a 7.1-inning effort against the Cardinals in St. Louis that featured just one run allowed. He only notched four strikeouts in the game and modest K counts should be expected (he’s struck out four or fewer hitters four times), but Hammel has been relatively stable as a secondary starter with 5.0 innings pitched or more and four or fewer runs allowed in every start, with quality starts in six of his nine turns. He has also been on the road for six out of nine, so a return to the friendly confines might be just what the doctor ordered for a pitcher who carried a 1.24 ERA through his first five starts but has regressed to a respectable 3.24 mark in his last four.
Carlos Martinez STL (at MIL) – Martinez is a regular in the raise section and Milwaukee is hardly a formidable opponent (especially if Ryan Braun is absent from the lineup), but CarMart hasn’t been the same since dealing with the flu and an undisclosed injury issue, both of which sprang up about three weeks ago. He had a 3.1-inning start back on May 6, after which he took an extended rest, and in three starts since he has registered a 8.40 ERA in 15.0 innings with 12 strikeouts against nine walks. He has pitched exactly 5.0 innings in each of those three starts, has allowed four or more earned runs in each of those starts, and has walked exactly three batters in each of those three turns as well. He’s also plunked a batter each of those games, after having just one HBP total in his first six turns. If there’s a bright side, it’s that CarMart hasn’t been getting hit especially hard, with a .104 ISO allowed over that three-game stretch.
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. CHW) – To be honest, I’m still holding out hope that the Mets reverse course and skip this start for Harvey. He just hasn’t been right this season, with compromised mechanics, diminished stuff and a tendency to get lit up like a Christmas tree in single frames. He doesn’t appear to be in the physical shape necessary to dominate like he has in the past, and though the White Sox offense has been disappointing thus far in 2016, the odds of self-implosion suck the wind out of Harvey’s value. Over his last three starts. Harvey has allowed a 1.212 OPS and .434 BABiP, with a 10.80 ERA and an astounding 27 hits allowed (four of them homers) in 13.1 innings of work.
Marco Estrada TOR (vs. NYY) – Estrada is chewing up innings like they’re about to go out of season, tossing 28.0 innings across his last four starts and at 6.0 frames in eight of his nine starts overall. He has given up more than three earned runs twice this season and hasn’t yet given up more than four, though his K and walk counts have been extremely volatile. He has struck out eight or more batters four times, but has tallied less than four Ks three times. He has walked four batters in four separate games this season, but has walked either one or two batters in each of the other five. The result has been a DraftKings score that has broken 30 points twice yet been under 11 two other times. He faced the Yankees in his last start, with three runs allowed over 7.0 innings in Yankee Stadium; expectations for today are in the same ballpark, even if the game itself is being played in a different country.
Tanner Roark WAS (at PHI) – On April 23, Tanner Roark struck out 15 Twins in 7.0 innings. Outside of that game, he hasn’t whiffed more than seven batters in any one contest. He struck out 11 batters once in 2014, but otherwise he has never punched out more than eight batters in any game of his career. So yeah, that was an outlier, but the impact to his stat-line (and in some cases, his DFS salary) is still being impacted by a single-game K count that was equivalent to three of his normal outings. He has walked two or three batters in every start this season, so that aspect is consistent, and he has finished the seventh inning in five of his 10 turns. The key to his performance will be the ER column, as Roark has kept the earned runs at one or zero in six of his starts this season. Facing the Phillies increases the likelihood that Roark will make it 7-of-11.
Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. TEX) – Rostering Tomlin is a dangerous game, as his high-contact approach results in more than his fair share of deep flies (career 1.5 HR/9, a 1.6 HR/9 this season). He also doesn’t walk anyone, leading the majors with just 1.1 BB/9 so far this season, so this self-inflicted damage is minimized; five of his nine home runs allowed this season have been solo shots, and the other four were all two-run homers. He has caught the eye of old school proponents of won-loss record, with a 7-0 record in eight starts, and his low walk rate combined with kind results on balls in play have resulted in a sub-1.00 WHIP.
Collin McHugh HOU (at ARI)
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. WAS)
Ian Kennedy KC (vs. TB)
Matt Andriese TB (at KC)
Junior Guerra MIL (vs. STL)
Andrew Cashner SD (at SEA)
Ivan Nova NYY (at TOR)
Ervin Santana MIN (at OAK)
Alex Wood LAD (at CHC)
Justin Nicolino MIA (vs. PIT)
Derek Holland TEX (at CLE)
Jeff Locke PIT (at MIA)
Steven Wright BOS (at BAL)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. SF)
Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. MIN)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jhoulys Chacin LAA (vs. DET)
Edwin Escobar ARI (vs. HOU) – Acquired by the Diamondbacks off of waivers at the end of April, Escobar is a low-K lefty facing a powerful lineup that leans heavily to the right side of the plate. He has 4.0 career MLB innings under his belt from 2014, and his minor-league track record is uninspiring, including a career ERA of 4.17 and a 1.37 WHIP over 640.1 innings in the minors. This one could get ugly.
Tyler Wilson BAL (vs. BOS)
Chad Bettis COL (vs. CIN)
Dan Straily CIN (at COL) – In any other venue, Straily would vault up the rankings with a nod to the improvements that he has made this season, but instead he will be playing in the pitcher’s hell of Coors Field. Godspeed.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window