Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 16th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez | SEA | NYY | 437.2 | 2.78 | 2.91 | 1.04 | 81.0% | 25.3% | 6.0% | 0.80 | 2.11 |
| Sabathia | NYY | SEA | 213.1 | 4.85 | 3.85 | 1.43 | 25.0% | 19.8% | 6.4% | 1.60 | 1.46 |
| Weaver | LAA | MIN | 372.1 | 4.04 | 4.47 | 1.22 | 52.4% | 16.6% | 6.3% | 1.23 | 0.71 |
| Nolasco | MIN | LAA | 196.1 | 5.64 | 4.06 | 1.55 | 16.7% | 17.3% | 6.0% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Finnegan | CIN | STL | 55 | 3.27 | 3.41 | 1.18 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 1.31 | 1.93 | |
| Wainwright | STL | CIN | 255 | 2.29 | 3.52 | 1.03 | 84.2% | 19.7% | 5.4% | 0.35 | 1.62 |
| Bergman | COL | CHC | 123 | 5.27 | 4.53 | 1.48 | 33.3% | 12.7% | 4.7% | 1.24 | 0.95 |
| Arrieta | CHC | COL | 385.2 | 2.08 | 2.79 | 0.92 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.0% | 0.35 | 2.12 |
| Young | KCR | OAK | 288.1 | 3.40 | 5.20 | 1.17 | 47.4% | 16.1% | 8.7% | 1.31 | 0.41 |
| Bassitt | OAK | KCR | 115.2 | 3.66 | 4.47 | 1.34 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 0.39 | 1.27 | |
| Estrada | TOR | BOS | 331.2 | 3.69 | 4.29 | 1.12 | 27.8% | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.44 | 0.64 |
| Price | BOS | TOR | 468.2 | 2.88 | 2.97 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.2% | 4.5% | 0.81 | 1.09 |
| Harvey | NYM | CLE | 189.1 | 2.71 | 3.23 | 1.02 | 24.9% | 4.9% | 0.86 | 1.27 | |
| Tomlin | CLE | NYM | 169.2 | 4.08 | 3.34 | 1.11 | 23.1% | 21.7% | 3.2% | 1.64 | 0.95 |
| Danks | CWS | TBR | 371.1 | 4.73 | 4.64 | 1.43 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 8.0% | 1.19 | 1.02 |
| Ramirez | TBR | CWS | 238.2 | 4.22 | 4.13 | 1.26 | 27.3% | 18.5% | 7.4% | 1.09 | 1.25 |
| Jungmann | MIL | PIT | 119.1 | 3.77 | 4.11 | 1.28 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 0.83 | 1.40 | |
| Niese | PIT | MIL | 364.1 | 3.75 | 4.03 | 1.33 | 41.2% | 16.1% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 1.87 |
| Scherzer | WAS | PHI | 449 | 2.97 | 2.79 | 1.04 | 60.0% | 29.3% | 5.4% | 0.90 | 0.83 |
| Nola | PHI | WAS | 77.2 | 3.59 | 3.66 | 1.20 | 21.4% | 6.0% | 1.27 | 1.47 | |
| Norris | ATL | MIA | 248.1 | 4.68 | 3.97 | 1.34 | 26.7% | 19.7% | 7.8% | 1.27 | 1.19 |
| Koehler | MIA | ATL | 378.2 | 3.95 | 4.42 | 1.33 | 52.6% | 18.1% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Verlander | DET | HOU | 339.1 | 4.08 | 4.08 | 1.28 | 35.0% | 19.1% | 6.8% | 0.82 | 0.89 |
| McHugh | HOU | DET | 358.1 | 3.39 | 3.58 | 1.17 | 42.9% | 22.2% | 6.4% | 0.80 | 1.29 |
| Gallardo | BAL | TEX | 376.2 | 3.46 | 4.17 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 16.6% | 7.6% | 0.86 | 1.73 |
| Lewis | TEX | BAL | 375 | 4.90 | 4.33 | 1.37 | 11.8% | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 0.76 |
| Miller | ARI | SDP | 388.1 | 3.36 | 4.37 | 1.26 | 21.1% | 18.4% | 9.0% | 0.81 | 1.18 |
| Cashner | SDP | ARI | 308 | 3.62 | 3.88 | 1.31 | 75.0% | 19.7% | 7.3% | 0.76 | 1.56 |
| Cueto | SFG | LAD | 455.2 | 2.80 | 3.46 | 1.04 | 76.2% | 22.9% | 6.1% | 0.85 | 1.26 |
| Kazmir | LAD | SFG | 373.1 | 3.33 | 3.85 | 1.18 | 63.2% | 20.7% | 7.1% | 0.87 | 1.16 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (at PHI) – More than half the games start on the early side of the slate, and nearly all of the big-name arms will be on duty in the morning, but the lone wolf left in the afternoon is Scherzer, who presents the most enticing combination of the day in terms of talent and opponent. Despite the no.1 ranking, Scherzer may not be worth the cost to acquire his services, as he is $2600 more expensive at DraftKings than the next pitcher on board even when looking at the All Day player pool. Expect him to be very highly-owned in the evening set, but the fantasy upside is such that Scherzer might be a necessary roster in order to secure the highest possible score of the day. Or he could just get hit up like in his last start, in which the Braves – that’s right, the Braves – knocked him around for four runs over six innings. In fact, both of Scherzer’s starts have been modest by his standards, and those stats turn an uglier color when factoring in that both of his starts were against the lowly offense from Atlanta.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. COL) – It looks like Arrieta has picked up right where he left off 2015 (not counting the playoffs, that is): 12 K against one walk in 14.0 innings, with a 1.97 ERA and 10 hits allowed across the two ballgames. He has finished the seventh inning in each start, both of which were on the road, and he was facing some of the best hitters on the planet in victories against the Angels (Miek Trout) and Diamondbacks (Paul Goldschmidt). The Rockies are the biggest Story in town, but take away the altitude and add an Arrieta and you have the recipe for a low-scoring game for the team in purple.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at NYY) – Velo? We don’t need no stinkin’ velo! The King has been untouchable in his first two starts of the season, giving up just four hits and a 0.69 ERA in 13.0 innings, but his typically-solid control has been off-kilter. He walked five Rangers in his first start of the year but had his annual April domination of the A’s, walking two batters while striking out 10. He’s been a hard-luck loser thus far, taking the L after allowing one hit in his first game (five walks will do that) and watching the bullpen dismantle his great work against Oakland. Felix had a few bumps in the road last year but it’s easy to forget just how dominant he was in the first couple of months, finishing May with a 1.91 ERA. The short porches in new Yankee Stadium can be unforgiving, so Felix will want to keep the bags clear of freebies lest a flyball gets away from him.
Matt Harvey NYM (at CLE) – Harvey would normally be an All-in candidate in this situation, facing a mediocre offense (to be generous) and carrying the weapons to wreak havoc on the strikeout category, but he hasn’t been quite right this season. He only has five strikeouts across two starts, and though we can excuse his lowK effort against the contact-savants in KC, the three-strikeout performance at home against the Phillies is more troubling. His velo is off of last year’s average by 1.3 mph on average, but he’s still pumping gas at more than 95 mph and it’s common for pitchers to take some time before they reach peak velocity. It might be more than just the velo, as the fastball has been the biggest problem thus far: the heater accounted for 58.6-percent of Harvey’s strikeouts last season, but the next K that he gets with the fastball will be his first of 2016.
David Price BOS (vs. TOR) – This might be the lowest that we will see Price ranked, at least this season. He’s facing the toughest offense in baseball, particularly with Edwin Encarnacion recently awakening from his hibernation. Josh Donaldson rolled out of bed with his bat firing on all cylinders, and he poses a particular threat to left-handed pitchers thanks to an obscene platoon advantage (his career slugging percentage against southpaws is .600). The powerful right-handed bats of Toronto will be taking aim at the Green Monster, looking to copy the blueprint that led to five Oriole runs in five innings at Fenway during Price’s last start.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez | 0.233 | 1.20 | 0.276 | 3.08 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.272 | 3.09 | 0.216 | 0.00 | 25.3% |
| Sabathia | 0.378 | 4.93 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.324 | 4.70 | 0.284 | 0.00 | 19.8% | ||
| Weaver | 0.321 | 3.79 | 0.301 | 4.23 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.270 | 4.46 | 0.247 | 0.00 | 16.6% |
| Nolasco | 0.396 | 5.38 | 0.366 | 5.65 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.359 | 4.15 | 0.312 | 0.00 | 17.3% |
| Finnegan | 0.291 | 2.90 | 0.250 | 0.673 | 0.252 | 4.28 | 0.213 | 0.01 | 24.4% | ||
| Wainwright | 0.277 | 2.27 | 0.243 | 2.36 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.269 | 2.80 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 19.7% |
| Bergman | 0.340 | 3.28 | 0.423 | 6.85 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.330 | 4.46 | 0.308 | 0.00 | 12.7% |
| Arrieta | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.240 | 2.41 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.257 | 2.31 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 27.2% |
| Young | 0.355 | 3.63 | 0.259 | 3.29 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.226 | 4.80 | 0.216 | 0.00 | 16.1% |
| Bassitt | 0.356 | 3.00 | 0.314 | 4.06 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.303 | 3.65 | 0.253 | 0.01 | 17.1% |
| Estrada | 0.316 | 4.09 | 0.310 | 3.87 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.234 | 4.62 | 0.218 | 0.00 | 19.1% |
| Price | 0.292 | 3.19 | 0.275 | 2.92 | 0.299 | 0.831 | 0.299 | 2.78 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 26.2% |
| Harvey | 0.237 | 2.30 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.272 | 3.05 | 0.219 | 0.01 | 24.9% | ||
| Tomlin | 0.307 | 4.63 | 0.364 | 4.83 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.278 | 4.17 | 0.249 | 0.01 | 21.7% |
| Danks | 0.317 | 4.11 | 0.354 | 4.77 | 0.246 | 0.736 | 0.298 | 4.63 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 15.6% |
| Ramirez | 0.353 | 5.23 | 0.343 | 4.96 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.283 | 4.27 | 0.248 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Jungmann | 0.302 | 4.34 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.290 | 3.92 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 21.4% | ||
| Niese | 0.289 | 4.21 | 0.329 | 3.77 | 0.198 | 0.488 | 0.302 | 4.03 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 16.1% |
| Scherzer | 0.305 | 3.60 | 0.254 | 2.58 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.291 | 2.81 | 0.219 | 0.00 | 29.3% |
| Nola | 0.270 | 3.24 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.289 | 4.04 | 0.249 | 0.02 | 21.4% | ||
| Norris | 0.333 | 3.81 | 0.324 | 4.67 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.298 | 4.49 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 19.7% |
| Koehler | 0.292 | 3.43 | 0.321 | 3.95 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.286 | 4.18 | 0.248 | 0.00 | 18.1% |
| Verlander | 0.305 | 3.45 | 0.337 | 5.26 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.299 | 3.65 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 19.1% |
| McHugh | 0.272 | 2.58 | 0.301 | 3.54 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.289 | 3.38 | 0.237 | 0.00 | 22.2% |
| Gallardo | 0.287 | 2.77 | 0.318 | 3.49 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.298 | 3.97 | 0.262 | 0.00 | 16.6% |
| Lewis | 0.373 | 4.68 | 0.331 | 5.17 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.312 | 4.31 | 0.279 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
| Miller | 0.314 | 4.19 | 0.285 | 3.15 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.271 | 3.96 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 18.4% |
| Cashner | 0.294 | 3.45 | 0.279 | 2.89 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.307 | 3.55 | 0.257 | 0.00 | 19.7% |
| Cueto | 0.257 | 2.05 | 0.290 | 3.34 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.260 | 3.41 | 0.214 | 0.00 | 22.9% |
| Kazmir | 0.304 | 3.68 | 0.286 | 3.13 | 0.254 | 0.682 | 0.279 | 3.66 | 0.235 | 0.00 | 20.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Sonny Gray OAK (vs. KC) – The high probability of a low K count has to be acknowledged, given the weight that strikeouts carry in the DFS world, the consistent 7.5 K/9 that Gray puts up each season, and the Kansas City offense that has struck out far less than any other lineup over the past two seasons. Gray has kept the ERA low in his traditional fashion, thanks to just nine hits allowed in 13.1 innings, but he has struggled with putting runners on base for free, with seven walks.
Adam Wainwright STL (vs. CIN) – Waino has had a brutal start to the season, the roughest of which was a five-run outing against Atlanta in his last turn. Wainwright got the win but walked five batters (first time since 2012) with just two strikeouts in his 5.0 innings of work, securing the minimum number of outs necessary for the win while the Cardinals offense piled on runs. With modest fastball velocity that only cracks the 90 mph barrier about half the time, Wainwright lives on pitch command, finishing with 2.5 BB/9 or fewer in every season since 2007. He has walked just 5.0-percent of batters since coming back in 2012 from Tommy John surgery, yet in his slim-sample slice of 2016 Wainwright has walked 11.8-percent of the batters he’s faced. The combination of high walks and low strikeouts (just five K so far in 11.0 innings) is alarming for a pitcher who’s only warning flag from last season was a non-arm injury that cut his season short in April.
Johnny Cueto SF (at LAD) – Cueto gets his first taste of the epic Dodgers-Giants rivalry, facing off against the struggling Scott Kazmir. He scared the locals with his inconsistent performances in Kansas City, but the San Francisco faithful will be happy with the 12:2 K:BB ratio and the 2-0 record that Cueto is currently sporting. Strikeouts are not his game, which instead is predicated on deception and exploiting batter weaknesses. He’s a joy to watch, with his scatterbrained approach of head-fakes, quick-pitches and Tiant twists, though sometimes the craziness becomes too complicated, even for him.
Shelby Miller ARI (at SD) – Shelbias T. Miller has been lit this season, but facing the Padres has a way of curing all woes. He doesn’t even need the marine layer to help, necessarily, just for the Padre bats to do their usual song and dance, which culminates in few runs on the scoreboard and many Ks in the scorebook.
Aaron Nola PHI (vs. WAS) – When did the Phillies get this killer pitching staff? Or is it just an illusion caused by looking through the prism of a team that has faced the Padres four times in their first ten games this season? Vincent Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff, and Aaron Nola has each impressed across two starts, and Nola carries the most esteemed pedigree of the group. Nola has 17 strikeouts so far this season in 14.0 innings and has yet to walk a batter, with the pitch-count efficiency to complete seven frames despite throwing just 95 pitches in each of his two starts this season. The Nats will be a much tougher opponent than were the Padres or Reds, giving us the opportunity to see how the right-hander does against a real lineup.
Erasmo Ramirez TB (vs. CHW)
Justin Verlander DET (at HOU)
Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. SF)
Andrew Cashner SD (vs. ARI)
Collin McHugh HOU (vs. DET)
Marco Estrada TOR (at BOS)
Chris Young KC (at OAK)
Colby Lewis TEX (vs. BAL)
Yovani Gallardo BAL (at TEX)
Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. NYM)
Jered Weaver LAA (at MIN) – If the Twins hitters can’t hit 82 mph fastballs, then we’ll need to get a live chicken to take a hex off their bats.
Taylor Jungmann MIL (at PIT)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (at STL)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. ATL)
Jon Niese PIT (vs. MIL)
John Danks CHW (at TB)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. SEA)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (vs. LAA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Bud Norris ATL (at MIA) – Giancarlo Stanton costs $5100 on DraftKings today; that means you have $44900 of cap room to spend on the rest of the roster.
Christian Bergman COL (at CHC)