Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, June 25th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-26 02:29:56

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Santana	MIN	NYY	180.2	4.33	4.46	1.35	38.9%	17.6%	7.4%	1.15	1.14
Pineda	NYY	MIN	238	4.84	3.20	1.31	75.0%	24.0%	3.9%	1.29	1.52
Dickey	TOR	CWS	304.2	3.96	4.79	1.23	47.6%	14.6%	7.4%	1.12	1.21
Gonzalez	CWS	TOR	195	4.75	4.53	1.41	40.0%	18.0%	8.6%	1.34	1.16
Andriese	TBR	BAL	114	3.47	4.18	1.24		17.3%	6.5%	0.79	1.40
Gausman	BAL	TBR	180.1	4.29	3.80	1.28	37.5%	21.6%	6.1%	1.45	1.20
Carrasco	CLE	DET	230.2	3.55	2.93	1.10		28.0%	6.0%	1.05	1.75
Sanchez	DET	CLE	223.1	5.28	4.28	1.37	41.2%	20.1%	8.4%	1.73	1.01
De La Rosa	COL	ARI	191.2	4.84	4.12	1.41	40.0%	21.2%	10.1%	1.31	1.80
Lackey	CHC	MIA	312	2.77	3.78	1.14	57.9%	21.6%	6.1%	0.87	1.28
Clemens	MIA	CHC
Pomeranz	SDP	CIN	167	3.34	3.74	1.18	25.0%	25.7%	10.0%	0.86	1.19
Finnegan	CIN	SDP	135.1	3.72	4.72	1.29		18.3%	10.9%	1.26	1.39
Gonzalez	WAS	MIL	258.1	3.94	3.79	1.39	46.7%	22.5%	8.6%	0.56	1.86
Garza	MIL	WAS	158.2	5.33	4.64	1.56	35.0%	15.7%	8.2%	1.30	1.38
Fiers	HOU	KCR	259.2	3.92	3.96	1.26		21.5%	7.1%	1.28	1.03
Young	KCR	HOU	174.2	3.81	4.84	1.19	47.4%	18.8%	8.6%	1.80	0.47
Maeda	LAD	PIT	81.2	2.64	3.76	1.10		24.2%	7.4%	0.66	1.19
Locke	PIT	LAD	251	4.80	4.51	1.42	66.7%	15.8%	8.1%	0.97	1.76
Degrom	NYM	ATL	264	2.66	3.16	1.02	50.0%	26.3%	5.3%	0.75	1.32
Teheran	ATL	NYM	298.2	3.59	4.07	1.18	70.0%	21.4%	7.9%	1.21	1.05
Wright	BOS	TEX	171	2.89	4.49	1.18		18.6%	9.0%	0.84	1.20
Griffin	TEX	BOS	33.2	2.94	4.63	1.13		20.4%	10.2%	0.53	0.88
Overton	OAK	LAA
Chacin	LAA	OAK	97	4.92	4.42	1.40	18.2%	17.7%	8.7%	1.02	1.76
Hellickson	PHI	SFG	233.2	4.54	4.03	1.30		20.2%	6.6%	1.46	1.19
Bumgarner	SFG	PHI	320.1	2.58	3.11	1.01	47.6%	27.3%	5.2%	0.84	1.11
Leake	STL	SEA	279.2	3.80	4.15	1.16	45.0%	15.5%	5.5%	1.16	1.88
Karns	SEA	STL	223	3.91	4.00	1.34		23.7%	9.7%	1.05	1.12

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. PHI) – The best pitcher on the slate gets one of the easiest matchups in the game, pitching in a cavernous ballpark that squelches home runs. All-In was easy today.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. NYM) – The young right-hander was a mess out of the gate this season, but rather than merely right the ship he has instead shifted into a new gear. Wipe the first three games from his stat-line, and Teheran has a 1.89 ERA and 78:16 K:BB in 81.0 innings, covering 12 starts. He’s coming off a complete gem against these same, depleted Mets, allowing a single baserunner in a seven-strikeout, no-walk shutout. The only thing holding him back in tonight’s prime rematch is the 120 pitches that he threw in completing the last turn, and Teheran could be restricted to something closer to 100 throws in this one.

Jacob deGrom NYM (at ATL) – DeGrom has reeled off five consecutive quality starts by leaning on his friend that was so helpful last season: the strikeout. He has piled up 41 Ks against seven walks in his last five starts and 32.0 innings, and though he whiffed “just” six Braves and merely threw a baseline QS (6.0 innings, three earned runs) in his last start, one wouldn’t be surprised to see his K-count jump to the double digits, particularly if his leash is let out a bit after throwing 98 pitches in his last start. His lowest total since cinco de Mayo..

Kenta Maeda LAD (at PIT) – The Pirates are just reeling offensively, with a ,289 wOBA and .662 OPS over their last seven days to go with an astronomical K rate of 28.9 percent – 0.1 percentage points off the league leader in the category over that stretch. After an unrepeatably-awesome April followed by a May swoon, Maeda has settled into the level of consistent production that could become the new norm for the right-hander. Over his last five starts, Maeda has a 1.52 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 29.2 innings, though be forewarned that he threw 107 pitches in his last start, tying a season-high (set three starts prior), and the last time that he reached that mark the game was followed by consecutive sub-100s. But given how poorly the Pirates have been hitting, Maeda might not need more than 100 to put up a good stat line.

John Lackey CHC (at MIA) – Lackey has been one the most consistent starters in the big leagues over the last six weeks, and his newfound K-per-inning stat-line has taken well to fantasy owners. Over his last 10 starts, we’re looking at a 1.97 ERA and 70 strikeouts against 18 walks in 68.2 innings. The Marlins are starting to heat up offensively, but the veteran Lackey will likely be unfazed.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Santana	0.334	4.55	0.323	4.12	0.247	0.729	0.299	4.30	0.265	0.01	17.6%
Pineda	0.336	4.67	0.339	4.98	0.243	0.698	0.345	3.53	0.281	0.01	24.0%
Dickey	0.308	3.89	0.319	4.01	0.248	0.696	0.261	4.59	0.244	0.00	14.6%
Gonzalez	0.350	4.65	0.329	4.85	0.260	0.785	0.301	4.78	0.267	0.01	18.0%
Andriese	0.308	3.75	0.280	3.25	0.260	0.769	0.287	3.72	0.249	0.01	17.3%
Gausman	0.279	2.92	0.367	5.64	0.242	0.707	0.297	4.25	0.257	0.01	21.6%
Carrasco	0.288	3.24	0.292	3.83	0.269	0.744	0.300	3.21	0.232	0.01	28.0%
Sanchez	0.314	4.45	0.376	6.17	0.251	0.729	0.288	5.03	0.26	0.00	20.1%
Miller	0.336	3.87	0.280	3.55	0.270	0.779	0.290	3.97	0.246	0.00	18.7%
De La Rosa	0.311	5.66	0.349	4.80	0.268	0.773	0.296	4.61	0.252	0.01	21.2%
Lackey	0.315	2.75	0.264	2.79	0.261	0.699	0.286	3.47	0.238	0.00	21.6%
Clemens					0.249	0.741
Pomeranz	0.226	2.05	0.298	3.94	0.250	0.719	0.263	3.53	0.206	0.00	25.7%
Finnegan	0.326	3.41	0.307	3.83	0.251	0.712	0.245	4.90	0.223	0.01	18.3%
Gonzalez	0.271	3.20	0.321	4.15	0.235	0.686	0.332	3.19	0.26	0.01	22.5%
Garza	0.368	5.05	0.347	5.60	0.246	0.717	0.323	4.77	0.292	0.00	15.7%
Fiers	0.298	3.51	0.334	4.28	0.269	0.733	0.289	4.20	0.248	0.00	21.5%
Young	0.378	4.97	0.246	2.84	0.248	0.744	0.224	5.24	0.219	0.00	18.8%
Maeda	0.278	2.54	0.255	2.74	0.264	0.734	0.280	3.13	0.221	0.02	24.2%
Locke	0.329	5.43	0.330	4.60	0.253	0.731	0.304	4.30	0.27	0.00	15.8%
Degrom	0.286	3.19	0.231	2.10	0.253	0.678	0.278	2.80	0.216	0.01	26.3%
Teheran	0.358	4.88	0.243	2.52	0.241	0.712	0.263	4.21	0.227	0.00	21.4%
Wright	0.270	2.88	0.289	2.91	0.259	0.739	0.249	4.03	0.216	0.01	18.6%
Griffin	0.301	3.57	0.231	2.25	0.272	0.768	0.237	3.48	0.195	0.03	20.4%
Overton					0.240	0.684
Chacin	0.354	5.83	0.297	4.09	0.248	0.696	0.295	4.29	0.258	0.00	17.7%
Hellickson	0.364	4.85	0.318	4.35	0.263	0.737	0.291	4.48	0.257	0.00	20.2%
Bumgarner	0.226	2.33	0.273	2.64	0.249	0.669	0.276	2.90	0.214	0.01	27.3%
Leake	0.313	4.18	0.287	3.39	0.249	0.739	0.263	4.29	0.245	0.00	15.5%
Karns	0.297	3.05	0.330	4.83	0.265	0.759	0.301	3.94	0.242	0.01	23.7%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (at DET) – Since returning from the disabled list at the beginning of June, Carrasco has been shaking off the cobwebs to rediscover his timing mechanism. Things haven’t been horrible by any means, with a 3.96 ERA and 22:7 K:BB ratio over his last four starts and 25.0 innings, but there have been red flags in each of the four turns: June 2 – nine hits in 5.0 frames against the Royals, only striking out two batters; June 8 – four earned runs over 6.2 innings at Seattle; June 13 – 10 hits allowed over 6.0 innings at KC; June 19 – four walks allowed in 7.1 innings of his last start against the White Sox; at least one home run allowed in each of the last four games . He hasn’t cracked 20 points in a game on DraftKings since April. The Tigers are missing a tooth the size of J.D. Martinez, but they are chasing a gazelle whose hamstring is still recovering.

Drew Pomeranz SD (at CIN) – With left-handed sluggers like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, one might assume that the Reds are soft against southpaws in general, but one would be wrong. Cincy has hit lefties better than they have right-handed pitchers this season (they were almost dead-even last season), but the difference is not overly stark, amounting to 37 points of OPS. Pomeranz has cooled since flashing dominance at times in May and early June, highlights that were marred first at the end of May, with a six-run clunker against the Diamondbacks, but Pomeranz came back with seven scoreless innings with eight Ks and just four baserunners allowed. But he has given up more hits and runs in his last few starts (6.19 ERA over last three turns), with the three solo homers surrendered in his last start against Washington that is most concerning. Tread with caution, but know that there is gold somewhere to be found in them hills.

Chris Tillman BAL (vs. TB) – Look beyond the 10-1 record and Tillman still registers as easily the most potent of the Orioles starting pitchers this season. His 3.11 ERA is more than a full run lower than any pitcher on staff who has made more than two starts this season, His strikeouts rate – which stood at 17.5 percent for his career entering the 2016 campaign and had peaked at 21.2 percent in 2013 – has skyrocketed to 24.0 percent this season. THe walk rate is basically unchanged, as are the homers, and perhaps some good fortune has played a role in his low hit rate, but Tillman has made significant gains this season and deserves to be treated as such.

Steven Wright BOS (at TEX) – Steven Wright’s 2.01 ERA leads the American League. Never did I expect to be typing those words, let alone as we near the midpoint of the season. The unpredictability of knuckleballers and the pedestrian K rate still keep him near the middle of the pitcher pool, and tonight’s combination of opponent and venue adds to the risk, but there’s no denying that he has rewarded the believers thus far in 2016.

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. TB) – Gausman has endured a gauntlet of rough opponents, including his facing Toronto, Texas and Boston twice over his last five starts, but with the smoke cleared his overall numbers don’t look all that bad: a 4.37 ERA with a 62:18 K:BB ratio over 68.0 innings. He has yet to walk more than two batters in any of his twelve starts, but on the flipside he hasn’t struck out more than five batters in a ballgame since May. For what it’s worth, Gausman struck out seven Rays in 5.0 innings in his first start of the year (on April 25), with one run and three hits allowed.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at MIL) – It only took six starts for Gio’s ERA to balloon from 1.86 (on May 22) to its current level of 4.25. The strikeouts are still there, including eight or more punchouts in three of his last four games, but he has suddenly become a granter of wishes for crooked numbers. He has given up three or more runs in each of the last six starts, though his penchant to stay in the game and chew innings enables him to counterbalanced some of the damage with frames and Ks.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at BAL)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. SD)

Mike Leake STL (at SEA)

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. MIN)

Nate Karns SEA (vs. STL)

R.A. Dickey TOR (at CHW)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at SF)

Matt Garza MIL (vs. WAS)

Dillon Overton OAK (at LAA) – It’s not a very sexy profile when looking through the K-tinted glasses of DFS, but Overton has been an efficient pitcher in the minor leagues this season, chewing up innings while keeping runs off the board while limiting the walks (3.01 ERA, 2.4 BB/9). His strikeout total will depend on his ability to stay in the game, though the catch is that he might need to induce some weak contact early in counts if he hopes to stay in the game long enough to register some strikeouts. The upside is low but so is the price ($4400 on DraftKings).

Mike Fiers HOU (at KC)

Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. CLE)

Matt Andriese TB (at BAL)

Jhoulys Chacin LAA (vs. OAK)

Ervin Santana MIN (at NYY)

Jeff Locke PIT (vs. LAD)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

A.J. Griffin TEX (vs. BOS) – We’re in for a hot day in Arlington.

Chris Young KC (vs. HOU)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (vs. TOR)

Paul Clemens MIA (vs. CHC)

Jorge De La Rosa COL (vs. ARI)

Shelby Miller ARI (at COL) – Welcome to the wild wild NL West, Mr. Miller. The combined ERA of today’s starters is 6.77, but only De La Rosa gets the excuse of playing half his games in pitcher hell. What’s the over/under line with total runs scored in this game, 19.5? I’ll lean the over.
(actual Vegas line: 11.5 runs)

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