Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 13th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Note: Saturday’s game between the Houston Astros @ New York Yankees on the early slate has been postponed due to rain
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Fiers | HOU | NYY | 199 | 4.66 | 4.29 | 1.39 | 36.67% | 18.6% | 6.4% | 1.81 | 43.3% |
| Dillon Overton | SEA | TOR | 36 | 9.75 | 5.2 | 1.94 | 12.9% | 5.1% | 3.50 | 29.2% | |
| Jon Lester | CHC | STL | 244 | 2.58 | 3.66 | 1.07 | 71.88% | 24.4% | 7.0% | 0.92 | 48.5% |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | SFG | 5 | 7.2 | 4.05 | 1.2 | 27.3% | 13.6% | 1.80 | 16.7% | |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | CLE | 58.1 | 8.02 | 5.36 | 1.87 | 17.4% | 12.5% | 1.85 | 38.0% | |
| Nicholas Pivetta | PHI | WAS | |||||||||
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | CHW | 101 | 2.85 | 3.73 | 1.24 | 25.6% | 11.9% | 0.80 | 56.8% | |
| Blake Snell | TBR | BOS | 125.1 | 3.66 | 4.75 | 1.62 | 26.32% | 22.5% | 12.9% | 0.72 | 37.5% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | MIA | 228.1 | 3.47 | 4.16 | 1.13 | 50.00% | 21.1% | 6.5% | 1.06 | 37.7% |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | MIL | 76.1 | 4.13 | 3.85 | 1.43 | 42.86% | 19.8% | 7.5% | 0.71 | 56.1% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | KCR | 177 | 3.66 | 4.63 | 1.28 | 46.67% | 19.5% | 9.4% | 0.97 | 41.3% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | TEX | 127.2 | 5.57 | 4.34 | 1.49 | 27.27% | 17.7% | 8.0% | 1.48 | 54.0% |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | ARI | 27.1 | 7.9 | 4.64 | 1.87 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 2.63 | 38.9% | |
| Alex Wood | LAD | COL | 90 | 3.4 | 3.22 | 1.18 | 50.00% | 27.6% | 8.0% | 0.60 | 56.2% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | LAA | 101 | 3.74 | 4.26 | 1.51 | 23.08% | 21.7% | 8.6% | 1.07 | 39.0% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | HOU | 110.2 | 4.96 | 3.61 | 1.26 | 9.09% | 23.8% | 6.9% | 1.46 | 46.7% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | SEA | 249.1 | 4.19 | 3.66 | 1.3 | 43.75% | 19.0% | 6.4% | 0.90 | 59.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | CHC | 237.1 | 3.19 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 51.61% | 22.6% | 8.8% | 0.80 | 55.5% |
| Matt Moore | SFG | CIN | 237 | 4.48 | 4.42 | 1.33 | 45.45% | 20.8% | 8.6% | 1.22 | 38.5% |
| Michael Clevinger | CLE | MIN | |||||||||
| Tanner Roark | WAS | PHI | 251.2 | 2.93 | 4.3 | 1.17 | 54.55% | 20.1% | 8.5% | 0.75 | 48.4% |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | SDP | 25 | 8.28 | 5.73 | 1.92 | 9.2% | 9.2% | 2.52 | 45.3% | |
| Chris Sale | BOS | TBR | 278.1 | 3.07 | 3.2 | 0.99 | 53.13% | 27.8% | 5.1% | 0.94 | 40.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | ATL | 218 | 5.28 | 4.76 | 1.58 | 35.29% | 17.3% | 9.9% | 1.11 | 50.1% |
| Zach Davies | MIL | NYM | 198.2 | 4.26 | 4.15 | 1.34 | 46.43% | 19.7% | 6.4% | 1.18 | 44.7% |
| Nathan Karns | KCR | BAL | 129.2 | 5 | 4.07 | 1.41 | 24.3% | 10.1% | 1.18 | 44.7% | |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | OAK | 63 | 5.43 | 5.41 | 1.51 | 10.6% | 8.5% | 2.14 | 48.2% | |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | PIT | 174.1 | 4.13 | 4.04 | 1.24 | 36.00% | 21.3% | 6.6% | 1.60 | 44.3% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | LAD | 150.2 | 4.3 | 3.91 | 1.34 | 52.63% | 20.8% | 6.3% | 1.25 | 48.2% |
| Ricky Nolasco | LAA | DET | 237.1 | 4.4 | 4.28 | 1.25 | 37.50% | 18.4% | 5.2% | 1.40 | 42.0% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
None. It’s a thin day at the top, and there isn’t a pitcher who earns the All-In designation in this field of landmines. In fact, even the Raise options are sparse, and the gamers who earn a profit on today’s slate will be those that are willing to take a few risks, including the risk of blowup.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Trevor Cahill SD (at CHW, $9300) – There isn’t a bargain to be had on today’s slate, so it’s going to cost upwards of $9000 just to get a pitcher whose profile is full of warts. Enter Cahill, a DFS darling in three of his last four starts, posting more than 25 points at the cost of a bargain basement starter. He provided tons of profit last week with 25.8 points for just $7600, and even that price was $2000 more than Cahill had cost all season. The going price for rostering him today is more than double what it was just two weeks ago, sucking out the profit margin. The fleas on Cahill were large enough to weigh down his price tag up until now, as he hadn’t pitched more than 70 innings since 2014 and came seemingly out of nowhere to post his current 11.2 K/9. He has always walked too many batters and that is still true during his current breakout, walking 11.0 percent of the batters he faces for a 4.1 BB/9. In fact, he walked five Rangers in his last start, though he gave up zero runs and only one hit in 5.1 innings.
Taijuan Walker ARI (vs. PIT, $9000) – It’s hard to tell what we’re gonna get from Taijuan. Maybe he goes 8.0 innings and strikes out 11 batters, as he did against the Padres at the end of April; or maybe he is ousted by the sixth inning and only punches out one hitter, as in his last start (caveat: that was in Colorado). He actually survived the gauntlet of Coors Field despite giving up so much contact, escaping with just one earned run and zero walks on the day. It was the fifth time in seven starts that Walker had walked one or zero hitters, but in his other two starts the right-hander has given away nine free passes in 9.2 innings. The Padres game was the only one in which Walker went beyond the sixth inning, but he has kept the run prevention within a steady range, never giving up more than four earned runs in any of his seven starts. The 40:12 K:BB in 40.0 innings paints a picture of better things to come, and the Pirates – who have scored the third-fewest runs in baseball this season – might help to get him on the right track.
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. PHI, $9100) – Roark was scheduled to pitch yesterday before the game was rained out, so he’ll take another run at it in today’s contest. He ranked as the eight-best option in that slate, but today he rockets up to the top three, an indictment of the weak crop of pitchers available. Here’s what I said about Roark in yesterday’s Breakdown (keep in mind he is $300 pricier today): “His FIP of 3.79 is a dead ringer for last season’s fielding-independent pitching performance, a mark that helps to explain the cynicism with which many evaluators saw a 2016 season that featured a likely-unsustainable 2.83 ERA, and in fact his current mark of 3.46 might be artificially low if we are to trust the FIP stat as an oracle. I have no such trust for the FIP stat, believing that Roark has a skill-set that is better than that mark, yet I have often found myself to be the low man on the totem pole with respect to Roark because I still see last season’s run-prevention as an aberration. He gets a boost with facing a weak Philly lineup, but Roark’s upside is still limited given the strikeout-rich environment of today’s MLB and the power of Ks in DFS (he has a career rate of just 6.6 K/9).”
Julio Teheran ATL (at MIA, $8600) – A few weeks ago, it would have been a slam dunk to put Teheran in the top spot, as he is the most talented arm on the docket for today and he was cruising through his first few starts of the season, with a 0.95 ERA through his first three turns of the rotation. However, he has been torched over his last four starts, giving up a composite ERA of 8.02 with an ugly 15:12 K:BB ratio and five home runs across 21.1 innings. The only silver lining being that the poor performance has driven down his price, but to invest in his services is to roll the dice that Teheran has A) identified the problem that has infected his last several starts, and B) worked to fix the problem. All pitcher prices are inflated tonight due to the lack of viable alternatives, making the $8600 more palatable, at least in theory.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Fiers | HOU | NYY | 0.327 | 4.06 | 0.377 | 5.18 | 0.277 | 4.29 | 0.303 | 5.07 |
| Dillon Overton | SEA | TOR | 0.437 | 15.43 | 0.465 | 8.38 | 0.363 | 5.2 | 0.359 | 7.72 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | STL | 0.229 | 2.04 | 0.287 | 2.75 | 0.217 | 3.66 | 0.267 | 3.44 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla | CIN | SFG | 0.584 | 20.25 | 0.214 | 2.45 | 0.167 | 4.05 | 0.182 | 5.62 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | CLE | 0.368 | 7.63 | 0.437 | 8.46 | 0.307 | 5.36 | 0.344 | 6.2 |
| Nicholas Pivetta | PHI | WAS | ||||||||
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | CHW | 0.268 | 2.13 | 0.276 | 3.38 | 0.199 | 3.73 | 0.257 | 3.81 |
| Blake Snell | TBR | BOS | 0.295 | 1.8 | 0.336 | 4.13 | 0.264 | 4.75 | 0.338 | 3.87 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | MIA | 0.341 | 4.73 | 0.24 | 2.44 | 0.229 | 4.16 | 0.267 | 3.88 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | MIL | 0.29 | 2.38 | 0.354 | 5.53 | 0.276 | 3.85 | 0.336 | 3.57 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | KCR | 0.315 | 4.05 | 0.313 | 3.34 | 0.239 | 4.63 | 0.279 | 4.2 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | TEX | 0.322 | 5.4 | 0.377 | 5.74 | 0.28 | 4.34 | 0.313 | 4.81 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | ARI | 0.386 | 10.13 | 0.431 | 5.79 | 0.319 | 4.64 | 0.341 | 6.63 |
| Alex Wood | LAD | COL | 0.308 | 7.66 | 0.251 | 2 | 0.221 | 3.22 | 0.299 | 2.76 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | LAA | 0.32 | 5.47 | 0.341 | 3.18 | 0.276 | 4.26 | 0.337 | 3.87 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | HOU | 0.296 | 4.42 | 0.341 | 5.5 | 0.248 | 3.61 | 0.295 | 4.16 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | SEA | 0.316 | 4.51 | 0.312 | 3.86 | 0.267 | 3.66 | 0.312 | 3.7 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | CHC | 0.316 | 3.78 | 0.258 | 2.56 | 0.231 | 3.88 | 0.286 | 3.65 |
| Matt Moore | SFG | CIN | 0.325 | 5.57 | 0.314 | 4.17 | 0.249 | 4.42 | 0.291 | 4.3 |
| Michael Clevinger | CLE | MIN | ||||||||
| Tanner Roark | WAS | PHI | 0.292 | 2.46 | 0.271 | 3.34 | 0.224 | 4.3 | 0.267 | 3.79 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | SDP | 0.342 | 3.68 | 0.536 | 14.81 | 0.346 | 5.73 | 0.337 | 7.22 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | TBR | 0.244 | 2.81 | 0.272 | 3.12 | 0.214 | 3.2 | 0.276 | 3.09 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | ATL | 0.355 | 5.31 | 0.338 | 5.26 | 0.28 | 4.76 | 0.322 | 4.62 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | NYM | 0.331 | 3.96 | 0.328 | 4.54 | 0.27 | 4.15 | 0.314 | 4.07 |
| Nathan Karns | KCR | BAL | 0.295 | 3.69 | 0.353 | 6.16 | 0.25 | 4.07 | 0.312 | 4.14 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | OAK | 0.395 | 5.81 | 0.358 | 5.15 | 0.281 | 5.41 | 0.269 | 6.62 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | PIT | 0.314 | 4.76 | 0.334 | 3.5 | 0.245 | 4.04 | 0.276 | 4.62 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | LAD | 0.303 | 3.38 | 0.349 | 4.61 | 0.272 | 0.32 | 4.04 | |
| Ricky Nolasco | LAA | DET | 3.49 | 0.337 | 5.2 | 0.265 | 0.294 | 4.33 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Sonny Gray OAK (at TEX, $7400) – Gray was bombed for three home runs by the Twins in his first start of the 2017 season, following a month-long delay for his 2017 debut, and he only lasted 4.2 innings in his second turn despite the fact that he was stretched out to 98 pitches against Detroit. He gave up four runs in each game, though only one of the runs was earned against the Tigers, but his peripherals are also uninspiring, including 12 hits allowed and a 6:3 K:BB through 10.2 innings. His pitch velocity is at full steam but Gray has applied a simplified approach this season, throwing fewer sliders such that 80 percent of the pitches he throws are either fastballs or curves.
Chris Tillman BAL (at KC, $9900) – Like Gray, Tillman also endured a long hiatus before making his 2017 debut, though Tillman enjoyed much cleaner results in his first go-around. The right-hander blanked the White Sox over five innings, allowing three hits and three walks to go along with four strikeouts. It was a short outing in terms of outs, but the Orioles let him go 93 pitches, so there aren’t many workload-related concerns going into tonight’s matchup. Apparently, that was enough for DraftKings to price him near $10k, which is high enough to be the most expensive pitcher on tonight’s slate. Aside from his weak opponent, nothing about Tillman’s price tag makes sense, given that we don’t know the extent to which he has shaken off his injury and that he wasn’t that good to begin with – a perfectly healthy Tillman from a peak season with ideal context is still not worth $10k, given his profile as a low-strikeout, high-walk pitcher with a vulnerability to home runs.
Daniel Norris DET (at LAA, $8400) – Norris has earned the quality start in three of his six turns this season, but he has yet to last more than 19 outs despite having one of the most reliable pitch counts imaginable, with each of his last five starts lasting 101-to-106 pitches. His three non-quality starts were nearly identical in terms of box score, each lasting 4.1-4.2 innings with four earned runs allowed on eight or nine hits, with four strikeouts and two walks in each outing. He’s walked multiple batters in each game this season, carries a rough K:BB of 27:17, and has given up 39 hits in 31.2 innings. There’s not a lot of upside to be had here, but there’s plenty of downside.
Nate Karns KC (vs. BAL, $7900)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. NYM, $7700)
Ricky Nolasco LAA (vs. DET, $8200)
Edinson Volquez MIA (vs. ATL, $7500)
Robert Gsellman NYM (at MIL, $5800) – The nightmare just keeps getting worse for Gsellman. After a promising performance to close out last season, he is getting rocked to the tune of a 6.54 ERA this year, and things could be even worse considering that only 23 of the 28 runs that he has given up this year have been deemed as “earned.” He’s pitched more than 5.0 innings in just one of his six starts this season but has coughed up at least three earned runs in each, and over his last three games he has lost the ability to buffer the run damage with strikeouts, as he has just four punchouts combined over his last three starts, spanning 14.0 innings. Now he faces a Brewers club that specializes in knocking baseballs over the fence, presenting a stacking opportunity for Eric Thames and company, though that strategy admittedly takes a hit with Ryan Braun hitting the disabled list.
Dylan Covey CHW (vs. SD, $5300) – Just about the only thing that could pull Covey out of the dregs of Fold status is a play-date with the Padres. Covey might just earn his salary today, though it would be the first time all season for a pitcher that has never scored as many as 9.0 points on DraftKings. Or maybe it’s just enticing to throw caution to the wind on such a dangerous slate of pitchers, grab the cheapest non-toxic items off the shelves and funnel the rest of the money under the salary cap to hitters playing in Coors Field.
Nick Martinez TEX (vs. OAK, $6700)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Alex Wood LAD (at COL, $6800)
Nick Pivetta PHI (at WAS, $5300)
Trevor Williams PIT (at ARI, $4700)
Tyler Anderson COL (vs. LAD, $6300)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if “”(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Felix_Hernandez-10954 is $9,000 on FanDuel and “”(player-popup)Justin Verlander”:/players/justin-verlander-10908(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Justin_Verlander-10908 is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window