Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 14th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana | CWS | NYY | 252 | 3.00 | 3.59 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 21.1% | 5.1% | 0.61 | 1.51 |
| Nova | NYY | CWS | 112.2 | 4.95 | 4.37 | 1.38 | 25.0% | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.20 | 1.79 |
| McHugh | HOU | BOS | 238 | 4.12 | 3.95 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 19.6% | 6.0% | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| Buchholz | BOS | HOU | 153 | 3.94 | 3.78 | 1.27 | 33.3% | 20.9% | 6.2% | 0.71 | 1.39 |
| Locke | PIT | CHC | 201 | 4.52 | 4.31 | 1.46 | 66.7% | 17.1% | 9.0% | 0.81 | 2.11 |
| Arrieta | CHC | PIT | 277 | 1.66 | 2.85 | 0.87 | 50.0% | 26.7% | 6.1% | 0.39 | 2.48 |
| Santana | MIN | CLE | 131.1 | 3.97 | 4.41 | 1.36 | 38.9% | 18.4% | 8.3% | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| Kluber | CLE | MIN | 267.2 | 3.60 | 3.03 | 1.06 | 57.1% | 27.2% | 5.2% | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| Graveman | OAK | TBR | 147 | 4.41 | 4.35 | 1.43 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 1.47 | 1.72 | |
| Andriese | TBR | OAK | 72.2 | 3.84 | 4.12 | 1.29 | 16.9% | 6.8% | 0.99 | 1.44 | |
| Adleman | CIN | PHI | |||||||||
| Nola | PHI | CIN | 123.2 | 3.42 | 3.31 | 1.07 | 23.7% | 5.5% | 1.02 | 1.63 | |
| Sanchez | DET | BAL | 193.2 | 5.16 | 4.17 | 1.35 | 41.2% | 20.9% | 8.6% | 1.63 | 1.03 |
| Wright | BAL | DET | 74 | 5.96 | 4.91 | 1.53 | 14.2% | 7.9% | 1.46 | 1.02 | |
| Nicolino | MIA | WAS | 93.1 | 3.76 | 5.68 | 1.22 | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.87 | 1.26 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | MIA | 176.1 | 3.27 | 2.77 | 1.09 | 52.4% | 29.8% | 5.3% | 0.87 | 1.30 |
| Perdomo | SDP | MIL | 13.2 | 9.88 | 4.56 | 2.34 | 12.7% | 8.5% | 0.00 | 1.79 | |
| Peralta | MIL | SDP | 144.2 | 5.23 | 4.79 | 1.64 | 47.4% | 12.6% | 8.0% | 1.18 | 1.82 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | KCR | 97.1 | 5.64 | 4.19 | 1.60 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 1.94 | 0.76 | |
| Gee | KCR | ATL | 60.1 | 4.77 | 4.33 | 1.52 | 50.0% | 15.1% | 7.0% | 1.34 | 1.59 |
| Estrada | TOR | TEX | 218.2 | 3.00 | 4.49 | 1.05 | 27.8% | 19.0% | 7.9% | 1.11 | 0.66 |
| Lewis | TEX | TOR | 249.2 | 4.40 | 4.44 | 1.24 | 11.8% | 16.7% | 5.2% | 1.26 | 0.77 |
| Verrett | NYM | COL | 69 | 2.87 | 3.93 | 1.06 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 1.04 | 1.21 | |
| Butler | COL | NYM | 93.1 | 5.59 | 5.08 | 1.68 | 13.4% | 10.6% | 1.45 | 1.75 | |
| Peavy | SFG | ARI | 144.2 | 4.73 | 4.35 | 1.31 | 42.1% | 17.8% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 0.85 |
| Corbin | ARI | SFG | 128.2 | 3.78 | 3.72 | 1.27 | 19.6% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 1.66 | |
| Chacin | LAA | SEA | 53.1 | 4.39 | 3.90 | 1.33 | 18.2% | 21.1% | 7.9% | 1.35 | 1.53 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | LAA | 172.2 | 3.70 | 3.54 | 1.14 | 60.0% | 21.0% | 4.9% | 1.15 | 1.56 |
| Martinez | STL | LAD | 217.2 | 2.94 | 3.53 | 1.23 | 23.7% | 8.2% | 0.70 | 1.98 | |
| Kazmir | LAD | STL | 220.1 | 3.51 | 4.08 | 1.24 | 63.2% | 20.6% | 7.6% | 1.18 | 1.12 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. PIT) – Hurricane Arrieta may have been dormant over the winter, but it entered the 2016 season with essentially the same ferocity of his CY-winning season if 2015. Arrieta leads the majors with a 1.13 ERA, and though it seemed that last year’s MLB-leading 5.9 H/9 would be impossible to repeat, instead he’s topping that mark just 4.9 H/9 this season. The only thing he’s really lacked is dominance in the strikeout category, as Arrieta has yet to top eight strikeouts in a game this season, though who needs strikeouts when the pitcher’s snagging extra points for throwing a no-hitter?
Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. MIA) – Stras is a top-end option who pales only in comparison to the Arrietas and Kershaws of the world. He’s completed at least six frames in all seven starts this season, has struck out at least seven batters in each of his last six turns and, though he allowed two homers in his last start, that effectively tripled his home run count on the season. Just be careful of Giancarlo Stanton, who owns a career slash of .400/.475/.857 in 40 career matchups head-to-head, which is the most that Strasburg has faced any batter in his career. I’m not the biggest proponent of batter-vs-pitcher stats, but when it comes to elite batters versus elite pitchers, I’ll go ahead and take the discount knowing that Stanton’s bat isn’t compromised by the matchup.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Corey Kluber CLE (at MIN) – This should be an automatic all-in situation, but Kluber’s performance remains shrouded in inconsistency. He has the talent to win a second CY, and though it is tempting to wave away issues in run prevention when the peripherals are as strong as Kluber’s are (K:BB of 45:10 this season), the fact that Kluber has been hounded by an inflated ERA for over a year raises questions about his consistency and pitch command. There aren’t answers to those questions, at least not yet, but rostering Kluber is to do so for the upside while acknowledging the risk.
Jose Quintana CHW (at NYY) – How to lead the league in ERA, vol. 1, chapter one: Don’t allow any home runs. Homers are bad. Maybe give up one every 45 innings, like Jose Quintana. Chapter two: Take whatever your best strikeout rate is of all time, and beat it. Your best walk rate? Beat that, too. It’s not that hard; Jose Quintana is doing it. Chapter three: Stop allowing so many hits. Just take the defense out to a nice steak dinner before every start, to ensure that the rate of hits allowed remains at career-low levels, like Jose Quintana.
Aaron Nola PHI (vs. CIN) – What does a guy have to do to get noticed? Nola has an obscene K:BB ratio of 49:8 over his first 46.0 innings, and two of those walks were intentional. He has gone seven full innings in five of his seven starts this season and has been a consistent source of Ks, with every start falling within the range of 5-to-9 strikeouts. His last four starts have all been on the road yet Nola has been unfazed, putting up a 1.33 ERA, a perfect 4-0 record and a 26:3 ratio of K:BB. The last time that he pitched at home, Nola gave up seven runs over 5.0 innings in his worst outing of the season.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana | 0.264 | 3.10 | 0.312 | 2.97 | 0.255 | 0.738 | 0.320 | 2.99 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 21.1% |
| Nova | 0.382 | 5.47 | 0.304 | 4.50 | 0.252 | 0.702 | 0.294 | 4.73 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 14.8% |
| McHugh | 0.306 | 4.18 | 0.332 | 4.07 | 0.269 | 0.755 | 0.320 | 3.65 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 19.6% |
| Buchholz | 0.303 | 3.94 | 0.307 | 3.95 | 0.245 | 0.744 | 0.317 | 3.31 | 0.259 | 0.01 | 20.9% |
| Locke | 0.344 | 5.44 | 0.323 | 4.25 | 0.238 | 0.699 | 0.314 | 4.07 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 17.1% |
| Arrieta | 0.216 | 1.42 | 0.229 | 1.85 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.238 | 2.42 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 26.7% |
| Santana | 0.346 | 4.98 | 0.299 | 2.98 | 0.252 | 0.721 | 0.295 | 4.09 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 18.4% |
| Kluber | 0.321 | 4.08 | 0.238 | 3.13 | 0.241 | 0.694 | 0.296 | 2.92 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 27.2% |
| Graveman | 0.325 | 3.21 | 0.360 | 5.59 | 0.243 | 0.699 | 0.299 | 4.95 | 0.275 | 0.01 | 16.2% |
| Andriese | 0.337 | 4.96 | 0.282 | 2.93 | 0.250 | 0.702 | 0.290 | 4.08 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 16.9% |
| Adleman | 0.242 | 0.675 | |||||||||
| Nola | 0.303 | 4.10 | 0.257 | 2.99 | 0.246 | 0.703 | 0.272 | 3.40 | 0.226 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Sanchez | 0.312 | 4.31 | 0.366 | 6.11 | 0.259 | 0.766 | 0.284 | 4.83 | 0.252 | 0.00 | 20.9% |
| Wright | 0.417 | 6.03 | 0.327 | 5.90 | 0.267 | 0.734 | 0.316 | 5.33 | 0.294 | 0.00 | 14.2% |
| Nicolino | 0.286 | 3.32 | 0.320 | 3.87 | 0.266 | 0.770 | 0.251 | 4.75 | 0.251 | 0.00 | 6.9% |
| Strasburg | 0.240 | 2.29 | 0.314 | 4.29 | 0.260 | 0.696 | 0.309 | 2.65 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 29.8% |
| Perdomo | 0.256 | 0.715 | 0.464 | 3.08 | 0.4 | 0.00 | 12.7% | ||||
| Peralta | 0.385 | 5.37 | 0.372 | 5.09 | 0.241 | 0.680 | 0.338 | 4.90 | 0.313 | 0.00 | 12.6% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.412 | 5.96 | 0.357 | 5.37 | 0.265 | 0.730 | 0.346 | 5.18 | 0.304 | 0.00 | 20.0% |
| Gee | 0.410 | 5.40 | 0.284 | 4.15 | 0.255 | 0.676 | 0.320 | 4.74 | 0.292 | 0.01 | 15.1% |
| Estrada | 0.279 | 3.08 | 0.269 | 2.92 | 0.258 | 0.737 | 0.220 | 4.22 | 0.2 | 0.00 | 19.0% |
| Lewis | 0.329 | 4.40 | 0.311 | 4.40 | 0.260 | 0.775 | 0.287 | 4.35 | 0.261 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Verrett | 0.271 | 2.27 | 0.269 | 3.51 | 0.269 | 0.771 | 0.230 | 4.05 | 0.203 | 0.01 | 20.4% |
| Butler | 0.437 | 6.17 | 0.342 | 5.12 | 0.244 | 0.718 | 0.321 | 5.60 | 0.299 | 0.00 | 13.4% |
| Peavy | 0.330 | 4.11 | 0.342 | 5.30 | 0.266 | 0.744 | 0.298 | 4.17 | 0.264 | 0.01 | 17.8% |
| Corbin | 0.241 | 1.86 | 0.348 | 4.33 | 0.271 | 0.719 | 0.306 | 3.93 | 0.266 | 0.01 | 19.6% |
| Chacin | 0.364 | 6.17 | 0.285 | 3.00 | 0.242 | 0.720 | 0.292 | 4.27 | 0.252 | 0.02 | 21.1% |
| Iwakuma | 0.309 | 3.35 | 0.293 | 4.03 | 0.248 | 0.703 | 0.286 | 3.74 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 21.0% |
| Martinez | 0.327 | 3.62 | 0.260 | 2.30 | 0.244 | 0.722 | 0.299 | 3.32 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Kazmir | 0.333 | 4.66 | 0.301 | 3.12 | 0.234 | 0.677 | 0.278 | 4.25 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 20.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Carlos Martinez STL (at LAD) – He hasn’t thrown more than 51 pitches in a ballgame since May 1, as his last start was cut short due to a battle with the flu and the illness was bad enough to push back his next scheduled start until today. He only threw 87 pitches in his last “full” start, so it’s reasonable to expect that Martinez will have a low pitch threshold tonight for the Cardinals, and that’s before seeing how fatigued he looks when CarMart does take the mound.
Marco Estrada TOR (at TEX) – Estrada has been a home run machine throughout his career, giving up at least 1.1 HR/9 in every season of his nine-year career. And yet this season he is allowing just 0.7 HR/9. Estrada is walking a very fine line, with an exceptionally low hit rate that only appears sustainable because he did exactly the same thing for Toronto last season, but over a larger sample. Call me a skeptic.
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. MIA) – Roark had one of the game’s more bizarre pitching lines, and his exceedingly-high walk rate belies his true talent. When Roark struck out 15 T wins on April 23, it wasn’t just a great moment in sports, but also a pivotal turning moment in the hockey postseason.
Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. SF) – Pitchers who throw a lot of strikes have a pronounced tendency to give up home runs, which is the natural consequence for a pitcher who lives in the strike zone but hose stuff is not overpowering enough to generate empty swings on its own merit. The Giants have struggled mightily over the past seven days, with just a .267 wOBA and .587 OPS. San Francisco gets dinged ever so so slightly for a team-wide OPS split that leans away from the right-handed bats, but the southpaw also creates a perfect opportunity to deploy Buster Posey agaisnt a non-threatening southpaw.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. LAA) – Iwakuma is on the wrong side of the hill, trying to stave off inevitable age-related decline, but his fantasy utility is quickly vanishing from sight as Iwakuma slips deeper into the mid-80s for fastball velocity. He’s only registered more than 13 points on DraftKings in just one of his seven starts this season, and that was in a game that featured just three strikeouts by Iwakuma, so there’s theoretically more in the tank though the realistic chances of his accessing that little something extra is closer to zero percent.
Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. STL)
Colby Lewis TEX (vs. TOR)
Ivan Nova NYY (vs. CHW)
Justin Nicolino MIA (at WAS)
Matt Andriese TB (vs. OAK)
Tim Adleman CIN (at PHI)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. SD)
Dillon Gee KC (vs. ATL)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at KC)
Anibal Sanchez DET (at BAL)
Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. HOU)
Jhoulys Chacin LAA (at SEA) – The change of address didn’t change the fact that Chacin brings sub-par stuff to battle with him every time out. Cue salivating hitters from Seattle’s lineup.
Jake Peavy SF (at ARI)
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. CLE)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at TB)
Collin McHugh HOU (at BOS)
Kendry Flores MIA (at WAS) – His minor-league career has been all about limiting the true outcomes, striving for weak contact early in the count, but such a tactic could have perilous consequences against Bryce Harper and company.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Wright BAL (vs. DET)
Jeff Locke PIT (at CHC)
Luis Perdomo SD (at MIL) – With a name that sounds like what you get right before a migraine hits, which might just be a harbinger of things to come. With a minor-league ERA of 5.78, Perdomo has struggled throughout his pro career to prevent runs at levels, and tonight’s matchup with the Brewers could produce a nightmare scenario.
Logan Verrett NYM (at COL)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. NYM)
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