Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 6th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Porcello | BOS | MIN | 259.1 | 3.33 | 3.74 | 1.06 | 45.45% | 21.7% | 3.9% | 1.04 | 43.0% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | TBR | 213 | 3.3 | 4.21 | 1.12 | 41.38% | 23.2% | 8.6% | 1.10 | 34.3% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | KCR | 197.1 | 4.93 | 4.18 | 1.26 | 44.83% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 1.78 | 44.9% |
| A.J. Cole | WAS | PHI | 38.1 | 5.17 | 4.33 | 1.33 | 12.50% | 23.2% | 8.3% | 1.64 | 31.9% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | PIT | 112.1 | 4.41 | 4.49 | 1.48 | 26.32% | 16.0% | 7.7% | 1.04 | 54.4% |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | BAL | 21 | 7.29 | 6.03 | 1.76 | 8.4% | 10.5% | 2.14 | 46.7% | |
| Mike Leake | STL | ATL | 210 | 4.16 | 3.85 | 1.27 | 40.00% | 16.9% | 3.9% | 0.86 | 53.9% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | NYM | 30.1 | 5.93 | 5.49 | 1.71 | 12.6% | 11.9% | 0.89 | 39.6% | |
| Ty Blach | SFG | CIN | 34.2 | 1.82 | 5.14 | 0.84 | 50.00% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 0.26 | 51.0% |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | CHC | 21.2 | 4.15 | 4.1 | 1.48 | 25.0% | 10.9% | 0.83 | 37.9% | |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | COL | 191 | 4.62 | 4.34 | 1.51 | 25.00% | 18.9% | 9.0% | 1.27 | 52.6% |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | SDP | 69 | 4.17 | 4.45 | 1.3 | 22.22% | 24.0% | 12.2% | 0.65 | 37.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | OAK | 133 | 5.14 | 4.93 | 1.42 | 33.33% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 1.29 | 39.1% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | LAA | 116.1 | 3.48 | 3.39 | 1.47 | 42.86% | 30.3% | 11.2% | 0.77 | 57.3% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | SEA | 230.1 | 4.38 | 5.2 | 1.47 | 48.48% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 0.82 | 51.6% |
| Nick Tepesch | MIN | BOS | 4 | 11.25 | 4.53 | 1.75 | 15.8% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 25.0% | |
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | TOR | 205.2 | 3.68 | 4.21 | 1.17 | 45.45% | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.44 | 36.4% |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | CLE | 43.2 | 1.65 | 3.57 | 0.96 | 23.5% | 4.7% | 0.41 | 40.5% | |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | WAS | 157.1 | 4.35 | 3.78 | 1.35 | 33.33% | 26.7% | 9.0% | 1.54 | 37.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | MIL | 152 | 3.79 | 4.08 | 1.37 | 38.10% | 20.2% | 6.6% | 0.77 | 45.7% |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | CHW | 149.1 | 3.44 | 4.33 | 1.29 | 21.43% | 20.6% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 35.1% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | STL | 223.1 | 3.39 | 4.12 | 1.11 | 50.00% | 21.3% | 6.5% | 1.01 | 37.8% |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | MIA | 71.1 | 4.04 | 3.85 | 1.42 | 42.86% | 20.6% | 8.0% | 0.50 | 55.7% |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | SFG | 30 | 4.5 | 4.03 | 1.13 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.80 | 50.6% | |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | NYY | 33 | 8.18 | 4.99 | 2.09 | 12.1% | 9.6% | 1.64 | 50.4% | |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | ARI | 144.2 | 4.42 | 4.04 | 1.35 | 52.63% | 20.0% | 6.3% | 1.31 | 47.5% |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | LAD | 103.1 | 3.66 | 4.23 | 1.6 | 55.56% | 14.0% | 9.2% | 0.78 | 64.7% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | DET | 78.1 | 4.6 | 4.86 | 1.39 | 22.22% | 14.7% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 47.2% |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | TEX | 7.1 | 11.05 | 6.82 | 2.32 | 8.1% | 13.5% | 2.45 | 31.0% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SD, $14200) – The scenario is ideal for Kershaw to buzzsaw through the San Diego lineup. Anything under $15k is a bargain when the best pitcher dials up the ideal opposition for piling on the strikeouts without having to worry about many of those pesky runs crossing the plate. It will surprise nobody to learn that Kershaw leads the National League in WHIP, posting a 0.87 mark and inching his career WHIP close to dipping below 1.00, and Kersh has an absolutely goofy 44:3 K:BB this season in 41.1 innings.. The decision of whether to roster Kershaw on a slate like tonight’s will dictate one’s strategy for the entire roster, and he’s so good that an extra large slice of the gamer pool will still choose to utilize his services despite the heavy cost, leaving DFS managers with the choice of whether to hop on board the Kersh train just to keep pace or whether to save some dough and reinvest it into the lineup. He has exceeded 32 points on DraftKings in three of his six starts this season, so his profit margin is certainly within reach, and there’s a chance that he posts a season-best score in DFS.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. CHW, $8400) – Bundy’s leash has been extended this season, throwing at least 99 pitches in each of his six starts and topping out with the 111 throws of his last outing. Part of the explanation behind the longer leash is that Bundy is chewing through innings with solid effectiveness. He’s spun six consecutive quality start and has allowed two runs or fewer in five of those turns, three of which came against a Red Sox team that has yet to hit their offensive stride this season. Tonight will mark Bundy’s first start outside the AL East, and though his K-count has included a modest 25 strikeouts in 39.1 innings pitched, consider once again that three of those games came against the Red Sox, who have the least strikeouts in all of baseball (169) by a fairly wide margin (23 fewer Ks than the next-lowest total). Against non-Boston teams, Bundy has amassed 17 punchouts in 19.1 innings, a frequency that forms a more realistic expectation for tonight’s game.
“(player-popup)Lance McCullers Jr HOU (at LAA, $11400) – I am one of McCullers’ biggest advocates, pointing at the right-hander’s powerful delivery and sharp breaking stuff in anticipation of a breakout campaign, and he is thus far living up to that praise with an impressive 46:11 K:BB in 35.1 innings this season. The run prevention hasn’t gone quite as smoothly, as evidenced by his 4.08 ERA, with his five homers allowed looming large over the small early-season sample. Of his six starts this season, two have been clunkers, each involving five earned runs allowed across five or fewer innings and scoring less than 7.0 points on DraftKings, but in his other four turns McCullers has earned more than 25.0 points in each starts and totaled 35 strikeouts over 26.0 innings. Praise aside, the price tag of $11400 is just too high, marginalizing his profit potential on a day where the only other pitcher priced above $10K is Kershaw. McCullers still earns a spot in the Raise category given the lofty ceiling and the outside shot at a day with double-digit strikeouts, and the cost might need to be stomached, considering the complete lack of options on the second (read: non-Kershaw) tier of the pitcher pool for tonight.
Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. MIL, $9600) – Cole’s situation is similar to that of McCullers, though not as severe, in that his cost is probably too high but the lack of viable alternatives might force the hand of some DFS managers to invest the funds and close their eyes Rewind the tapes two years and it looked like Cole was on the fast track to becoming one of the more dominant starters in the majors, but he took a step backward last season in essentially every category of his statsheet. The impressive rates of his past have returned this season, including strikeout (8.5 K/9) and walk (1.8 BB/9) frequencies that are right in line with his impressive 2015 campaign, but the run prevention still leaves something to be desired thanks to a home run rate that has tripled over even last season’s struggles. Consider that in 2016, Cole gave up seven homers in 116.0 innings and that his career mark was 0.6 HR/9 entering the season (never having risen higher than 0.7 HR/9 in a single season), but in 2017 he has already surrendered six bombs in just 36.0 innings with a rate of 1.5 HR/9. His recent proclivity to giving up homers is a dangerous omen against a Brewers offense that currently leads the majors with 49 home runs.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Porcello | BOS | MIN | 0.267 | 2.86 | 0.298 | 3.83 | 0.234 | 3.74 | 0.276 | 3.5 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | TBR | 0.265 | 2.66 | 0.298 | 4 | 0.207 | 4.21 | 0.244 | 3.94 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | KCR | 0.293 | 3.96 | 0.367 | 5.71 | 0.279 | 4.18 | 0.294 | 4.75 |
| A.J. Cole | WAS | PHI | 0.331 | 4.87 | 0.325 | 5.5 | 0.243 | 4.33 | 0.283 | 4.74 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | PIT | 0.364 | 5.05 | 0.301 | 3.86 | 0.273 | 4.49 | 0.307 | 4.32 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | BAL | 0.329 | 4.05 | 0.53 | 12.91 | 0.321 | 6.03 | 0.31 | 6.95 |
| Mike Leake | STL | ATL | 0.315 | 4.32 | 0.309 | 4.02 | 0.273 | 3.85 | 0.312 | 3.54 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | NYM | 0.369 | 4.5 | 0.383 | 7.16 | 0.305 | 5.49 | 0.337 | 4.99 |
| Ty Blach | SFG | CIN | 0.198 | 1.35 | 0.221 | 2.11 | 0.151 | 5.14 | 0.165 | 3.64 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | CHC | 0.357 | 5.4 | 0.333 | 4.05 | 0.272 | 4.1 | 0.357 | 3.64 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | COL | 0.298 | 3.97 | 0.356 | 4.83 | 0.274 | 4.34 | 0.316 | 4.58 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | SDP | 0.311 | 4.73 | 0.275 | 3.68 | 0.22 | 4.45 | 0.284 | 3.65 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | OAK | 0.311 | 5.16 | 0.387 | 5.12 | 0.288 | 4.93 | 0.312 | 4.63 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | LAA | 0.328 | 3.42 | 0.325 | 3.54 | 0.26 | 3.39 | 0.374 | 3.12 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | SEA | 0.276 | 2.3 | 0.341 | 4.85 | 0.271 | 5.2 | 0.295 | 4.54 |
| Nick Tepesch | MIN | BOS | 0.424 | 9 | 0.421 | 12 | 0.368 | 4.53 | 0.4 | 4.9 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | TOR | 0.265 | 2.05 | 0.333 | 4.88 | 0.233 | 4.21 | 0.263 | 4.39 |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | CLE | 0.283 | 1.42 | 0.229 | 1.69 | 0.21 | 3.57 | 0.267 | 2.38 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | WAS | 0.343 | 4.9 | 0.322 | 3.79 | 0.252 | 3.78 | 0.314 | 4.3 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | MIL | 0.359 | 4.33 | 0.286 | 3.35 | 0.273 | 4.08 | 0.33 | 3.46 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | CHW | 0.309 | 3.26 | 0.317 | 3.63 | 0.247 | 4.33 | 0.288 | 4.32 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | STL | 0.333 | 4.54 | 0.238 | 2.43 | 0.225 | 4.12 | 0.264 | 3.79 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | MIA | 0.296 | 2.53 | 0.333 | 5.26 | 0.27 | 3.85 | 0.336 | 3.26 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | SFG | 0.353 | 6.75 | 0.305 | 4.15 | 0.218 | 4.03 | 0.231 | 5.11 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | NYY | 0.515 | 9 | 0.404 | 8 | 0.353 | 4.99 | 0.379 | 5.68 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | ARI | 0.312 | 3.34 | 0.35 | 4.76 | 0.273 | 4.04 | 0.315 | 4.2 |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | LAD | 0.277 | 1.33 | 0.365 | 4.48 | 0.298 | 4.23 | 0.335 | 4.31 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | DET | 0.361 | 6.48 | 0.286 | 3.2 | 0.266 | 4.86 | 0.293 | 4.46 |
| Chase De Jong | SEA | TEX | 12.27 | 0.367 | 9.82 | 0.375 | 0.37 | 7.82 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. STL, $8600) – Teheran has been brutalized in two of his last three starts, including the six-run drubbing of last turn, though he did take just 83 pitches to complete six full frames in that contest against the Mets. Perhaps he can be forgiven for the seven runs that he gave up to Washington over 4.0 innings a couple weeks ago, given that the Nats’ offense is an efficient run-scoring machine that cannot be stopped by conventional means. Teheran has allowed two earned runs or fewer in his other four turns, but the peripherals back up the assertion that something is wrong with the right-hander, who has a 27:18 K:BB in 35.1 innings that represents a drag on both categories. It’s still early, but if the yips of 2015 have returned, then it could be a long summer in the new stadium for Teheran.
Mike Leake STL (at ATL, $8200) – Everyone knows that Leake’s NL-leading 1.35 ERA is overdue for a correction, so I get the general avoidance of his services, but the price tag is very reasonable for a pitcher that has posted five strikeouts for every walk with a 25:5 K:BB in 33.1 innings this season. The next home run that Leake gives up will be his first of the season, and his dominance of two of the three true outcomes has fueled a 1.98 FIP that also leads the National League. He is facing a subpar lineup and is one of the few pitchers who has tamed the Nationals’ offense this season, and with a string of five consecutive quality starts on the line (two or fewer earned runs allowed in each), Leake is in a good position to extend his streak to a half-dozen QS in a row.
Amir Garrett CIN (vs. SF, $7100) – In four of his five starts this season, Garrett has been excellent. In four of his five starts, he’s gone 6.0-7.0 innings with two or fewer runs allowed in each. The K-count has generally been unimpressive, but against Baltimore he spiked a 12-K performance, his only game with more than five punchouts. That other game was the ruiner of hopes, dreams and ratios. Garrett gave up 10 runs (nine earned) over 3.1 innings against Milwaukee, two starts ago, immediately following the 12-K game, spoiling owner’s trust immediately after he had earned it, and it might take him a month or more to earn it back. The optimist will see one bad start and give Garrett a Mulligan, but ownership rates might be low as owners are once bitten, twice shy.
Robert Gsellman NYM (vs. MIA, $6600) – Gsellman is a toss-up, equally likely it seems to post a 15-point day or to get bombed for more runs than innings pitched, but truth be told it has been much more of the latter in 2017. He’s only cracked five points on DraftKings in three of his six starts this season, once dipping into the negatives, and has cleared 10 points just twice, capping out at 18.35. Last season was much more impressive, as Gsellman ended the campaign on a run of four straight starts above 15.0 points on DraftKings, capping it off with 32.75 and 24.70 points in his last two starts, respectively. It’s a risky proposition, but if looking for an option to pair with Clayton Kershaw on a poor slate that is full of landmines, then Gsellman might be worth a roll of the dice.
Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. WAS, $8100) – Velasquez has been the target of many fantasy managers due to his drool-worthy K-rate, but this is still an inefficient pitcher (career 10.0 K/9, 26.3 percent) who struggles to finish the sixth inning, is in the midst of his third consecutive season with more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance and whose career ERA now stands at 4.35 over 213.0 innings in the majors. Facing the Nats offense has become the opponent equivalent of playing in Coors Field, and the odds of Velasquez turning a profit are extremely low, though they admittedly slide up a chunk if Bryce Harper is out of the lineup once again.
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. DET, $7600)
Matt Garza MIL (at PIT, $6400)
Brett Anderson CHC (vs. NYY, $6900)
Patrick Corbin ARI (at COL, $5200)
Jordan Zimmermann DET (at OAK, $6300)
Martin Perez TEX (at SEA, $6700) – 20 strikeouts against 19 walks in 31.2 innings. Pass.
J.C. Ramirez LAA (vs. HOU, $6800)
Jordan Montgomery NYY (at CHC, $7000)
A.J. Cole WAS (at PHI, $5400)
Odrisamer Despaigne MIA (at NYM, $4400)
Clayton Richard SD (vs. LAD, $6100)
Ty Blach SF (at CIN, $5800)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Chase De Jong SEA (vs. TEX, $6200)
Dylan Covey CHW (at BAL, $4500)
Tyler Anderson COL (vs. ARI, $5000)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if “”(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Felix_Hernandez-10954 is $9,000 on FanDuel and “”(player-popup)Justin Verlander”:/players/justin-verlander-10908(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Justin_Verlander-10908 is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window