Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 18th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2017-04-19 02:29:53

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	Team	Opp	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%
Miguel Gonzalez	CHW	NYY	145.2	3.77	4.59	1.29	39.13%	17.2%	6.6%	0.80	40.3%
Zach Eflin	PHI	NYM	63.1	5.54	5.41	1.33	36.36%	11.4%	6.3%	1.71	36.2%
Michael Fulmer	DET	TBR	171	3	4	1.11	50.00%	20.6%	6.5%	0.89	48.7%
Kevin Gausman	BAL	CIN	195.2	3.63	3.92	1.31	50.00%	22.3%	6.8%	1.29	43.9%
Max Scherzer	WAS	ATL	241	2.91	3.03	0.97	67.65%	31.6%	6.3%	1.16	32.7%
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	CHC	192.1	4.4	4.8	1.47	34.38%	17.8%	10.3%	1.22	49.2%
Ricky Nolasco	LAA	HOU	214.1	4.49	4.36	1.25	37.50%	17.8%	5.3%	1.30	41.9%
Josh Tomlin	CLE	MIN	180.1	4.89	4.21	1.24	44.83%	16.3%	2.9%	1.90	44.3%
Matt Cain	SFG	KCR	98.2	5.56	4.68	1.54	23.53%	18.2%	8.6%	1.64	38.1%
Chad Kuhl	PIT	STL	82	3.95	4.5	1.33	57.14%	18.3%	7.4%	0.77	42.8%
Yu Darvish	TEX	OAK	119.2	3.23	3.24	1.13	47.06%	30.6%	8.3%	0.98	40.1%
Wei-Yin Chen	MIA	SEA	132.1	5.1	4.11	1.31	31.82%	19.3%	4.5%	1.63	40.0%
Shelby Miller	ARI	SDP	111.2	6.04	4.99	1.67	20.00%	16.0%	9.2%	1.21	42.0%
Kyle Freeland	COL	LAD	10.2	5.91	4.24	1.59		17.0%	10.6%	0.84	57.6%
Luis Severino	NYY	CHW	83	5.64	3.77	1.4	9.09%	23.1%	7.5%	1.41	44.7%
Marcus Stroman	TOR	BOS	219.1	4.19	3.6	1.27	43.75%	19.2%	6.2%	0.90	59.9%
Zack Wheeler	NYM	PHI	9.2	7.45	3.28	1.24		20.0%	5.0%	0.93	56.7%
Matt Andriese	TBR	DET	137.2	4.38	3.92	1.25	21.05%	20.6%	5.1%	1.24	42.4%
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	BAL	10	9.9	5.46	1.6		10.9%	6.5%	3.60	36.1%
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	WAS	129	4.4	4.16	1.33	31.82%	20.9%	6.9%	1.33	40.4%
Brett Anderson	CHC	MIL	22	6.55	5.09	1.91		10.3%	8.4%	1.64	48.8%
Joe Musgrove	HOU	LAA	72.1	4.11	4.17	1.26	40.00%	19.6%	6.6%	1.24	45.0%
Phil Hughes	MIN	CLE	70.2	5.6	4.98	1.44	18.18%	13.7%	5.2%	1.66	33.9%
Jason Hammel	KCR	SFG	176.1	3.98	4.37	1.25	53.33%	20.3%	8.0%	1.28	41.2%
Mike Leake	STL	PIT	191.2	4.37	3.85	1.27	40.00%	17.0%	3.8%	0.94	53.4%
Andrew Triggs	OAK	TEX	68	3.57	3.6	1.19	14.29%	20.7%	6.0%	0.66	51.0%
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	MIA	128	5.48	5.34	1.63	21.74%	15.8%	11.7%	1.20	44.1%
Jarred Cosart	SDP	ARI	61.2	5.84	5.49	1.78	7.69%	13.8%	14.9%	0.58	60.3%
Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	COL	14	7.71	3.87	1.79		21.2%	7.6%	2.57	45.5%

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Yu Darvish TEX (at OAK, $10,700) – Darvish has had an inconsistent ride through the start of the season but he is coming off his best start of the year, with 10 strikeouts over 7.0 scoreless innings versus the Angels, and over his last two turns Darvish has allowed just three earned runs across 13.0 innings. Oakland’s offense has mustered just 46 runs this season, the fourth-lowest total in the game, and the fact that this one will be played in the pitcher-friendly venue of Oakland further raises the bar on Darvish’s projected point total. The next pitcher on this list has the higher floor, but Darvish can match that ceiling with a salary that will leave an extra $2100 in the coffers.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Max Scherzer WAS (at ATL, $12,800) – The upside is tremendous and the floor is similarly-elevated, as Scherzer projected point total on any given day is exceeded by only Clayton Kershaw among the game’s starting arms. Facing the rebuilding Braves adds a dose of extra incentive, but beware that the Braves built a reputation last season for being stingy with the strikeouts against right-handed pitchers and their offense fueled plenty of disappointing outings by opposing righties due to the surprising resilience of the Atlanta offense. The same goes for this season, and though the Braves have scored an unimpressive total of 50 runs on the young year, their team total of 89 strikeouts is tied for the fourth-lowest total in the game, making it tougher for Scherzer to turn a profit.

Luis Severino NYY (vs. CHW, $6,500) – There is no better combination of cost and upside on today’s slate than Severino. His velocity is already in midseason form, averaging 96.7 mph on his fastball. Severino has been eminently hittable during his short time in the majors, leading to a career ERA of 4.46 and 1.4 HR/9 over 145.1 innings. There is definitely a steep downside in rostering Severino, who could get lit at a moment’s notice, but he is facing a White Sox lineup whose 44 runs scored mark the third-lowest total in the early going this season. Severino is coming off of an excellent start against the Rays that featured 11 strikeouts and just two runs allowed across 7.0 frames, and the recent success could buoy a high ownership rate, but the ability to re-allocate considerable funds to one’s lineup could prove invaluable in two-SP formats given the top-heavy nature of the starting pitchers on today’s docket.

Michael Fulmer DET (at TB, $8,900) – Last season’s AL Rookie of the Year has been up to his old tricks through two starts of the 2017 season, posting a 2.25 ERA and 11:3 K:BB over his first 12.0 frames of the year. The Rays are being treated as a bottom-feeding offense again this season when looking at the prices on DraftKings, but they have scored the third-most runs in the American League this season . That said, the Rays have also piled up 150 strikeouts already this season, by far the highest total in the majors, and the two points per K available on DK justifies the price tag. Fulmer is more about avoiding walks than he is piling up strikeouts, but his opponent should allow for a solid K-count while keep the bases clear of free giveaway.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. BOS, $8,300) – Stroman has been on fire ever since (and including) the WBC. The strikeouts are still unimpressive, checking in with nine Ks through his first 15.1 innings, but Stroman has allowed just three earned runs over that stretch (1.76 ERA) and is coming off a 100-pitch complete game against the Brewers. Facing Boston is typically a dicey proposition, the the Red Sox offense has been depleted recently, with Mookie Betts yet to get going and Jackie Bradley Jr absent from the lineup. That said, Stroman is likely to exit a bit earlier this time around, given the Red Sox team OBP of .353 (first in the majors) and the higher count of batters faced that it tends to precede, but the odds of crooked numbers in the runs column are decreased by Boston’s lack of power this season (.401 team slugging).

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	Team	Opp	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	SIERA	BABIP	FIP
Miguel Gonzalez	CHW	NYY	0.307	3.01	0.309	4.63	0.257	4.59	0.296	3.8
Zach Eflin	PHI	NYM	0.388	7.67	0.306	3.71	0.264	5.41	0.261	5.48
Michael Fulmer	DET	TBR	0.27	2.45	0.298	3.63	0.226	4	0.266	3.73
Kevin Gausman	BAL	CIN	0.287	3.3	0.344	3.92	0.261	3.92	0.311	4.03
Max Scherzer	WAS	ATL	0.32	3.4	0.206	2.47	0.195	3.03	0.256	3.14
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	CHC	0.331	4.37	0.344	4.42	0.259	4.8	0.295	4.95
Ricky Nolasco	LAA	HOU	0.312	3.66	0.33	5.2	0.265	4.36	0.294	4.26
Josh Tomlin	CLE	MIN	0.295	3.55	0.366	5.93	0.275	4.21	0.286	4.94
Matt Cain	SFG	KCR	0.396	5.59	0.347	5.55	0.285	4.68	0.319	5.19
Chad Kuhl	PIT	STL	0.363	4	0.288	3.91	0.26	4.5	0.306	3.8
Yu Darvish	TEX	OAK	0.271	3.58	0.278	2.94	0.209	3.24	0.283	3.1
Wei-Yin Chen	MIA	SEA	0.338	6.97	0.341	4.76	0.278	4.11	0.309	4.49
Shelby Miller	ARI	SDP	0.393	6.75	0.323	5.19	0.3	4.99	0.339	4.72
Kyle Freeland	COL	LAD	0.59	27	0.327	3.72	0.286	4.24	0.333	4.05
Luis Severino	NYY	CHW	0.31	4.61	0.366	6.64	0.27	3.77	0.325	4.24
Marcus Stroman	TOR	BOS	0.317	4.8	0.303	3.56	0.261	3.6	0.305	3.67
Zack Wheeler	NYM	PHI	0.428	9	0.195	6.35	0.263	3.28	0.31	3.24
Matt Andriese	TBR	DET	0.305	3.72	0.32	4.98	0.263	3.92	0.305	3.86
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	BAL	0.274	5.79	0.568	13.5	0.302	5.46	0.265	8.03
Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	WAS	0.329	4.27	0.332	4.5	0.263	4.16	0.307	4.3
Brett Anderson	CHC	MIL	0.48	6.23	0.369	6.62	0.337	5.09	0.349	5.63
Joe Musgrove	HOU	LAA	0.332	5.01	0.325	3.38	0.256	4.17	0.293	4.28
Phil Hughes	MIN	CLE	0.385	5.06	0.335	5.84	0.297	4.98	0.311	4.99
Jason Hammel	KCR	SFG	0.342	4.26	0.296	3.78	0.24	4.37	0.274	4.43
Mike Leake	STL	PIT	0.317	4.34	0.313	4.4	0.276	3.85	0.314	3.64
Andrew Triggs	OAK	TEX	0.289	4.06	0.288	3.16	0.242	3.6	0.294	3.21
Yovani Gallardo	SEA	MIA	0.353	6.24	0.352	4.94	0.278	5.34	0.311	5.03
Jarred Cosart	SDP	ARI	0.306
Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	COL

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at CIN, $7,100) – Prior to the season, this would have looked like an absolute bargain. We’ve been collectively waiting for Gausman to break out for a few years now, and the Reds are a bottom-feeding ballclub with a patchwork rotation that is not projected to contend for anything besides a high pick in the 2018 draft. But the Reds’ offense has been on fire in the first couple weeks of the 2017 season – they’ve scored the fourth-most runs in the game – and Gausman has continued his frustrating brand of pitching, with an eye-rolling K:BB of 11:9 in three starts covering 16.1 innings this season. He has gone 97 or more pitches in all three turns this season, so the O’s will stick with Gausman as long as they can, and he gets a theoretical break after facing Toronto twice and the red-hot Yankees once this season, but a continuation of early-season trends could spell trouble for the former top pick.

Mike Leake STL (vs. PIT, $7,600) – Leake has been a run-prevention machine in the first couple weeks of 2017, with just one earned run allowed through 15.0 innings in his first two starts. The rock-solid performance has allowed the Cardinals to exercise a slow hook on Leake, who needed just 92 pitches to cruise through 8.0 innings in his first start and who quieted the electric bats of the Nats with 7.0 scoreless innings and 104 throws in his last contest. The Pirates will be a less-intimidating ballclub despite an imposing top three bats in the lineup, and though Pittsburgh might manage a steal or two against the SB-prone Leake, those steals won’t directly hurt Leake’s DFS line for the day.

Brett Anderson CHC (vs. MIL, $6,600) – The Cubs have been careful with the oft-injured Anderson, stopping him at 90 pitches in each of his first two starts of the season. He has only allowed one run through 10.2 innings so far this season but the peripheral stats are less impressive, with just six strikeouts but five walks already on his stat-line. The low pitch count could be by design, as the Cubs attempt to coax a significant count of innings from his left arm, so odds are that he will fall short of 100 throws once again in today’s game. That said, he could put up enough points in even a somewhat-brief outing to more than offset the $6600 cost to the team’s budget, particularly if the juggernaut offense of the Cubs gets out to an early lead.

Hyun-jin Ryu LAD (vs. COL, $8,000) – It’s hard to know what to expect from Ryu at this juncture. He pitched just 4.1 innings last season after missing all of 2015, and the last time that he pitched a significant chunk of innings the southpaw was a pitcher who kept all three of the true outcomes low and induced a high rate of contact. His velocity has been down a couple ticks from his pre-surgery form, averaging less than 90 mph on his fastball, and the Dodgers have been extra careful with his workload, as Ryu has gone just 4.2 innings and 77 pitches in each of his first two starts this season. Another truncated pitch-count will make it extremely difficult for Ryu to turn a profit on his $8k salary, especially against the robust offense of the Rockies, though his left-handedness gives Ryu a theoretical advantage against some of the more feared Colorado hitters.

Zack Wheeler NYM (vs. PHI, $7,800) – Wheeler is back on the mound to face a light-hitting Philly ballclub, and the excitement generated by his once-lofty prospect status could invite managers to gravitate around him, but Wheeler has battled injuries and ineffectiveness throughout a career that has never come close to expectations. He’s given up eight runs through his first two turns and 9.2 frames of 2017, and his relatively-light workloads (85 or fewer pitches in each start) could be reflective of the team’s attempts to take it easy on his throwing arm, or it could just be the natural result of his getting hit up a bit in those first couple starts. Wheeler faced the Phillies in his last start, giving up three runs across 5.2 innings, a modest performance that indicates that his early hook was more related to pitch count than it was his effectiveness on the day. He’ll likely be capped around 90 pitches in today’s outing, making it tougher for him to earn a profit on a $7800 price tag that’s a bit too high for my tastes.

Joe Musgrove HOU (vs. LAA, $7,200)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. WAS, $6,400)

Wei-yin Chen MIA (at SEA, $7,700)

Shelby Miller ARI (at SD, $7,500)

Ricky Nolasco LAA (at HOU, $7,400)

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at CHC, $7,000)

Matt Andriese TB (vs. DET, $6,100)

Jason Hammel KC (vs. SF, $7,100)

Chad Kuhl PIT (at STL, $5,800)

Kyle Freeland COL (at LAD, $5,400)

Andrew Triggs OAK (vs. TEX, $5,000)

Matt Cain SF (at KC, $4,800)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at NYY, $6,300)

Brian Johnson BOS (at TOR, $4,200)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Zach Eflin PHI (at NYM, $5,100)

Josh Tomlin CLE (at MIN, $6,700)

Phil Hughes MIN (vs. CLE, $5,500)

Yovani Gallardo SEA (vs. MIA, $6,200)

Jarred Cosart SD (vs. ARI, $4,500)

Bronson Arroyo CIN (vs. BAL, $4,000)