Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 23rd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Duffy | KCR | NYY | 237.1 | 3.38 | 3.75 | 1.17 | 46.15% | 24.1% | 6.3% | 1.10 | 37.4% |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | WAS | 40.2 | 5.98 | 4.09 | 1.45 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 1.77 | 39.4% | |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | BAL | 242.1 | 3.05 | 4.42 | 1.13 | 46.67% | 19.7% | 8.0% | 0.97 | 42.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | CHC | 277.2 | 3.14 | 3.69 | 1.13 | 62.50% | 22.2% | 5.4% | 0.75 | 47.8% |
| German Marquez | COL | PHI | 49.2 | 4.71 | 4.26 | 1.43 | 33.33% | 17.6% | 7.2% | 0.72 | 49.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | BOS | 172.1 | 4.6 | 4.98 | 1.49 | 22.22% | 17.4% | 10.7% | 1.20 | 46.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | NYM | 196.2 | 4.76 | 4.32 | 1.39 | 27.27% | 19.0% | 8.6% | 0.96 | 50.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | CIN | 198.1 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 1.08 | 44.00% | 25.5% | 5.7% | 1.23 | 48.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | TBR | 210.1 | 4.02 | 3.94 | 1.24 | 51.85% | 21.9% | 5.7% | 1.20 | 39.7% |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | ATL | 57.2 | 6.09 | 4.79 | 1.77 | 21.9% | 13.3% | 1.25 | 43.6% | |
| Joseph Biagini | TOR | MIL | |||||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | HOU | 150 | 5.28 | 4.95 | 1.44 | 33.33% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 1.50 | 37.8% |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | ARI | 35.1 | 7.64 | 5.41 | 1.78 | 12.8% | 9.8% | 2.80 | 45.6% | |
| Jose Urena | MIA | OAK | 116.2 | 4.94 | 4.78 | 1.37 | 33.33% | 14.7% | 7.4% | 1.08 | 45.7% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | LAD | 45.1 | 2.78 | 4.29 | 1.13 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 1.59 | 48.0% | |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | KCR | 39.1 | 4.81 | 4.53 | 1.4 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 0.92 | 38.4% | |
| Joe Ross | WAS | SEA | 120.2 | 3.95 | 4.08 | 1.33 | 36.84% | 20.7% | 6.4% | 1.04 | 41.8% |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | MIN | 167.1 | 3.66 | 4.4 | 1.29 | 21.43% | 20.4% | 8.3% | 1.29 | 34.2% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | SFG | 255.2 | 2.68 | 3.66 | 1.09 | 71.88% | 24.6% | 7.1% | 0.92 | 48.6% |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | COL | 99.1 | 5.07 | 5.22 | 1.3 | 36.36% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 1.45 | 39.5% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | TEX | 278.1 | 3.36 | 3.74 | 1.09 | 45.45% | 21.8% | 3.9% | 1.07 | 42.6% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | SDP | 138 | 5.09 | 4.59 | 1.47 | 35.29% | 17.7% | 7.8% | 1.24 | 42.6% |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | CLE | 40 | 5.18 | 4.73 | 1.3 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 1.80 | 43.5% | |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | LAA | 78.1 | 5.06 | 4.44 | 1.39 | 20.00% | 15.9% | 6.2% | 1.26 | 49.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | PIT | 217.2 | 4.38 | 4.93 | 1.39 | 31.03% | 16.2% | 9.0% | 1.57 | 44.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | TOR | 223.2 | 4.47 | 4.77 | 1.48 | 34.38% | 18.2% | 10.1% | 1.21 | 48.2% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | DET | 135.1 | 2.99 | 3.38 | 1.36 | 42.86% | 29.0% | 10.5% | 0.67 | 58.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | CHW | 207 | 4.96 | 4.33 | 1.53 | 25.00% | 18.6% | 8.7% | 1.39 | 52.4% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | MIA | 94 | 4.5 | 4.89 | 1.41 | 22.22% | 15.3% | 9.1% | 0.86 | 48.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | STL | 211.2 | 1.83 | 2.61 | 0.77 | 80.95% | 29.9% | 2.4% | 0.64 | 48.9% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. STL, $13400) – Like there was any other option. Sure, he has “only” a strikeout per inning this season and has given up double his usual rate of homers, but even with a pair of Coors Field starts under his belt, Kersh has maintained a 2.15 ERA and nearly eight strikeouts for every walk on the year, limiting opposing batters to a .210/.235/.349 line this season. He’s carried an ERA of 1.27 over his last three games, finishing the seventh inning in all three starts with a K:BB of 18:5 over 21.1 innings, and that stretch includes a tour through Denver two starts ago. Kershaw days are always a bit weird – in 50/50 tournaments he’s a veritable must-play in two-pitcher formats – and it doesn’t help that his ownership rate is sky-high and the left-hander plays in the last set of games, meaning that no lead is safe unless he’s on the roster.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Lance McCullers HOU (vs. DET, $10200) – Remember when walks were a major problem? Last season, McCullers posted an ugly 5.0 BB/9 with a free pass to 12.8 percent of the batters he faced; this year, those rates have been cut nearly in half, as McCullers has cruised along with 2.5 BB/9 with a 6.8 percent rate. The change to a shorter arm path has fueled a leap in development for McCullers, who is a monster hiding behind the rock of Dallas Keuchel. Tigers are often feared, but the bengals have been just a middle-of-the-road offense for the first seven-plus weeks of the season. The mostly pounce on southpaws, but the re-insertion of J.D. Martinez to the Detroit lineup has already paid large dividends. McCullers hasn’t given up an earned run in three starts, with the only downside being that the strikeout maven has only punched out 14 batters over 19.0 innings over that stretch, but his squashing of hits, walks and runs has kept the right-hander above 19 points on DraftKings in every start this month.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at CIN, $9900) – This ranking is dependent on tonight’s workload, in his first game back on the mound since skipping a start.with a strained pectoral. There’s always the possibility that the pec flares up and causes an early exit, or that the Indians take it easy on Carrasco’s pitch count in order to re-integrate him slowly. Otherwise, his price tag is a bargain, the first time since mid-April that his salary came in under $10k, even though he is facing a Reds lineup that ranks seventh in baseball in runs scored and has the fifth-highest slugging percentage as a team. Performance-wise, Carrasco is killing it with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.885 WHIP, including a 52:11 K:BB in 52.0 innings. His last start was easily his worst of the year, giving up five runs and nine baserunners over 3.2 innings as he battled with the pec issue, an outing that provides a glimpse into the downside of rostering Carrasco in tonight’s game.
Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. MIN, $7800) – A couple turns ago, I cautioned that Bundy’s egregiously-low strikeout rate was at least partly the result of scheduling circumstance, as three of his first six games came against the Red Sox and their MLB-low K-count, with Bundy compiling just eight strikeouts in 20.1 innings over those starts. Sure enough, he went out and fanned eight Blue Jays, but the smile on my face was wiped off in his last start, as Bundy was tagged for six runs (all earned) against Detroit, doubling his previous high for runs allowed in a game this season. The Twins ought to be less imposing, but they are another low-strikeout team (fourth-lowest total in the majors) that will likely cap Bundy’s ceiling in tonight’s start.
Jon Lester CHC (vs. SF, $11100) – I get it. Lester is facing the Giants, and outside of a recent hot streak by Buster Posey, the Gigantes offense poses no threat to opposing pitchers. However, Lester has been shaky over the past month, with a 4.89 ERA and 37:16 K:BB over his last six starts, covering 35.0 innings of work. Most of the damage came in his last two start of April, but Lester has been mundane in May, giving up multiple runs in each start, trading nine-strikeout starts with those of the 5-K variety, and with two games in which control vacated the premises with four or more walks allowed. He’s only turned a profit on $11k in one of his nine starts this season, and though the GIants certainly provide the opportunity for him to makes it 2-in-10, to pay that price is to leave little wiggle room for downside. That said, he is the safest non-Kershaw option on the board, so expect the ownership rate to spike a bit in cash games.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Duffy | KCR | NYY | 0.218 | 1.99 | 0.321 | 3.66 | 0.242 | 3.75 | 0.297 | 3.64 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | WAS | 0.347 | 5.27 | 0.368 | 6.33 | 0.287 | 4.09 | 0.318 | 4.8 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | BAL | 0.273 | 2.71 | 0.288 | 3.39 | 0.22 | 4.42 | 0.253 | 3.95 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | CHC | 0.295 | 2.75 | 0.273 | 3.52 | 0.239 | 3.69 | 0.292 | 3.16 |
| German Marquez | COL | PHI | 0.337 | 4.74 | 0.349 | 4.68 | 0.271 | 4.26 | 0.319 | 3.71 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | BOS | 0.366 | 4.64 | 0.335 | 4.55 | 0.264 | 4.98 | 0.298 | 4.9 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | NYM | 0.338 | 5.92 | 0.297 | 3.69 | 0.26 | 4.32 | 0.305 | 4.08 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | CIN | 0.309 | 3.05 | 0.275 | 3.2 | 0.227 | 3.38 | 0.276 | 3.59 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | TBR | 0.309 | 4.36 | 0.324 | 3.65 | 0.257 | 3.94 | 0.306 | 3.87 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | ATL | 0.401 | 6.65 | 0.359 | 5.71 | 0.274 | 4.79 | 0.339 | 4.95 |
| Joseph Biagini | TOR | MIL | ||||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | HOU | 0.336 | 5.92 | 0.374 | 4.68 | 0.29 | 4.95 | 0.31 | 4.91 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | ARI | 0.334 | 3.38 | 0.495 | 12.42 | 0.32 | 5.41 | 0.313 | 7.34 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | OAK | 0.318 | 5.31 | 0.341 | 4.55 | 0.263 | 4.78 | 0.288 | 4.6 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | LAD | 0.408 | 5.71 | 0.201 | 0.96 | 0.202 | 4.29 | 0.217 | 5.02 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | KCR | 0.398 | 14.4 | 0.302 | 3.41 | 0.247 | 4.53 | 0.303 | 3.93 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | SEA | 0.37 | 4.53 | 0.274 | 3.49 | 0.268 | 4.08 | 0.319 | 3.84 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | MIN | 0.321 | 3.69 | 0.312 | 3.62 | 0.248 | 4.4 | 0.285 | 4.43 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | SFG | 0.231 | 2.07 | 0.289 | 2.87 | 0.219 | 3.66 | 0.271 | 3.42 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | COL | 0.355 | 6.7 | 0.318 | 3.44 | 0.266 | 5.22 | 0.27 | 5.09 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | TEX | 0.274 | 2.92 | 0.305 | 3.84 | 0.24 | 3.74 | 0.284 | 3.51 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | SDP | 0.364 | 5.66 | 0.326 | 4.52 | 0.282 | 4.59 | 0.321 | 4.44 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | CLE | 0.27 | 4.26 | 0.336 | 5.35 | 0.228 | 4.73 | 0.241 | 5.49 |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | LAA | 0.403 | 7.59 | 0.288 | 3.3 | 0.278 | 4.44 | 0.307 | 4.43 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | PIT | 0.342 | 4.26 | 0.346 | 4.48 | 0.258 | 4.93 | 0.275 | 5.28 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | TOR | 0.33 | 4.4 | 0.351 | 4.53 | 0.263 | 4.77 | 0.302 | 4.85 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | DET | 0.311 | 2.94 | 0.304 | 3.04 | 0.244 | 3.38 | 0.342 | 3.03 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | CHW | 0.307 | 4.67 | 0.363 | 5.05 | 0.279 | 4.33 | 0.319 | 4.72 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | MIA | 0.362 | 6 | 0.278 | 3.44 | 0.261 | 0.293 | 4.23 | |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | STL | 1.21 | 0.226 | 2.03 | 0.191 | 0.254 | 2.12 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Johnny Cueto SF (at CHC. $10400) – The Cubs are currently struggling, but this is still an incredible-deep lineup that could catch fire at any time, and “struggling” has equated to the tenth-highest total of runs scored in baseball. Typically, Cueto would be up to the challenge, but he hasn’t been the steady presence that the right-hander has been the past couple of seasons. Cueto has given up multiple runs in all nine of his starts this season and has struck out more than seven batters in just one of them. He has still been worth more than 21 points in five of those nine turns, but only once has he turned a profit on the $10k price tag. He’s also coming off his worst sea-level start of the season, as Cueto gave up five earned runs over 6.0 innings against the Dodgers his last time out. He might be worth rostering in a cheap tournament to zig against the zag, but Cueto should be low-owned in cash games despite his usual consistency.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TEX, $8500) – The WIns count may not be there, but Porcello has been a Quality Start machine this season, pitching the 6.0 frames and allowing the three or fewer earned runs necessary to earn a QS in seven of his nine starts this season. That said, he is adept at toeing the line of arbitrary stats that define a Quality Start, as just 26 of 33 runs allowed this season have been earned, and yet Porcello still has an unimpressive 4.23 ERA to show for his work. He leads the AL in hits allowed, and the overall stat profile looks more similar to his pre-2016 work than the Cy-winning performance of last season. But hey, the strikeouts are way up, with more than a punchout per inning, and his upside retains a semblance of seismic activity so long as the K-rate remains intact.
Danny Duffy KC (at NYY, $8800) – Like Porcello, Duffy has failed to build on his breakout performance of 2016, with both his strikeout and walk ratios stumbling back to pre-2016 levels. The big difference has been an ability to keep the ball in the yard, as Duffy has allowed just two homers in 57.2 innings after giving up 1.4 HR/9 last season. There are signs that he is emerging from the funk though, and his last start may have been the declaration of change, as Duffy piled up a season-high 10 strikeouts while allowing just five baserunners over 7.0 scoreless innings against the high-scoring Yankees, a trick that he’ll try to repeat tonight in the Bronx. He bookended the flip of the calendar with a pair of forgettable six-run starts, but in his last three turns Duffy has amassed an impressive 1.31 ERA with a K:BB of 18:5 over 20.2 innings.
Lance Lynn STL (at LAD, $7200) – For his first five years in the league, Lynn ended each season with a rate between 0.6-0.8 HR/9, displaying an advanced ability to keep the baseball out of the bleachers. That rate has more than doubled this season, with Lynn coughing up 1.6 HR/9 with eight homers allowed in 45.1 innings. His other true outcomes are right in line with his pre-TJ work, leading one to expect to find a bloated ERA on the back of his baseball card, but Lynn has effectively walked between the raindrops this season with a 2.78 ERA that sits in the shadow of a 5.02 FIP which screams regression. It may have begun already, as Lynn has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts, and he might be on the verge of a stat-correcting blowup.
Ervin Santana MIN (at BAL, $8100)
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. SD, $6500)
Alex Cobb TB (vs. LAA, $7900)
Jordan Montgomery NYY (vs. KC, $6800)
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. MIA, $6100)
Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. CHW, $7000)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. TOR, $7600)
Joe Ross WAS (vs. SEA, $5900)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at TB, $9200)
Tyler Glasnow PIT (at ATL, $7400)
Amir Garrett CIN (vs. CLE, $4800)
Jhoulys Chacin SD (at NYM, $7500)
Andrew Cashner TEX (at BOS, $5400)
German Marquez COL (at PHI, $6600)
R.A. Dickey ATL (vs. PIT, $6700)
Jose Urena MIA (at OAK, $5500)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jordan Zimmermann DET (at HOU, $5600)
Zach Eflin PHI (vs. COL, $4700)
Joe Biagini TOR (at MIL, $4600)
Dylan Covey CHW (at ARI, $4300)
Christian Bergman SEA (at WAS, $4900)