Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 24th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-25 02:41:07

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Odorizzi	TBR	MIA	219.0	3.45	3.98	1.17	36.8%	20.80%	6.5%	1.07	0.91
Koehler	MIA	TBR	229.1	4.20	4.79	1.43	52.6%	17.00%	10.3%	0.98	1.29
Miller	ARI	PIT	246.0	3.62	4.42	1.34	21.1%	18.90%	9.3%	0.80	1.33
Liriano	PIT	ARI	233.1	3.63	3.54	1.26	12.5%	26.00%	9.7%	0.93	1.89
Harvey	NYM	WAS	237.2	3.33	3.42	1.15	0.0%	23.70%	5.3%	0.87	1.27
Strasburg	WAS	NYM	188.1	3.25	2.78	1.10	52.4%	30.00%	5.5%	0.86	1.29
Dickey	TOR	NYY	268.1	4.02	4.68	1.23	47.6%	14.90%	7.0%	1.11	1.16
Eovaldi	NYY	TOR	203.0	4.26	3.83	1.39	50.0%	19.00%	6.8%	0.75	1.97
Hellickson	PHI	DET	195.2	4.46	3.99	1.31	0.0%	20.30%	6.6%	1.43	1.15
Verlander	DET	PHI	190.1	3.74	3.89	1.13	35.0%	22.40%	6.7%	0.99	0.76
Hammel	CHC	STL	217.1	3.44	3.57	1.17	47.4%	23.90%	6.4%	1.08	1.10
Wacha	STL	CHC	232.2	3.52	4.04	1.27	53.3%	20.00%	7.7%	0.89	1.49
De La Rosa	COL	BOS	169.1	4.89	4.07	1.44	40.0%	21.90%	10.4%	1.28	1.82
Price	BOS	COL	275.2	3.07	3.19	1.11	52.4%	26.20%	5.4%	0.72	1.13
Nelson	MIL	ATL	236.0	3.85	4.17	1.26	0.0%	19.60%	8.9%	0.99	1.66
Teheran	ATL	MIL	256.2	3.75	4.21	1.26	70.0%	20.30%	8.4%	1.12	1.09
Chacin	LAA	TEX	64.2	4.45	3.97	1.31	18.2%	19.60%	7.6%	1.25	1.76
Perez	TEX	LAA	133.0	4.06	4.47	1.39	37.5%	14.00%	9.2%	0.47	2.56
Tillman	BAL	HOU	224.2	4.45	4.51	1.34	42.9%	18.30%	9.0%	0.88	1.18
Fister	HOU	BAL	152.0	4.20	4.56	1.36	58.3%	13.80%	6.0%	1.18	1.40
Tomlin	CLE	CWS	108.2	3.23	3.70	0.91	23.1%	20.60%	3.1%	1.74	0.87
Sale	CWS	CLE	277.0	2.96	2.68	1.00	64.3%	30.40%	4.7%	0.91	1.17
Volquez	KCR	MIN	255.0	3.60	4.34	1.33	50.0%	18.20%	8.4%	0.78	1.43
Santana	MIN	KCR	145.1	3.78	4.38	1.31	38.9%	18.50%	8.1%	0.93	1.16
Wright	CIN	LAD
Bolsinger	LAD	CIN	113.2	3.72	4.11	1.39	33.3%	20.50%	9.7%	0.95	1.80
Graveman	OAK	SEA	158.1	4.43	4.42	1.45	0.0%	15.90%	7.9%	1.42	1.77
Karns	SEA	OAK	193.0	3.59	3.88	1.28	0.0%	23.80%	9.1%	1.12	1.14
Cashner	SDP	SFG	219.1	4.43	4.09	1.45	75.0%	20.10%	8.3%	0.94	1.53
Samardzija	SFG	SDP	278.1	4.43	4.05	1.23	60.0%	18.80%	5.3%	1.07	1.09

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. CLE) – Sale’s consistency of greatness puts him in the class of the Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta of the world. Over his last seven starts. Sale has posted a ridiculous ERA of 0.99 with a 48:7 K:BB ratio in 54.1 innings. Whatever fantasy upside that Sale gave away by prioritizing pitch-efficiency over strikeout totals this season has been more than counterbalanced by his run prevention and longer outings, going 7.0 innings or more in eight of his nine starts. He’s coming off of consecutive complete games, each involving one run along with zero walks allowed., and the only possible knock against him at this point is that Sale has had a relatively soft schedule, a trend that continues with tonight’s matchup with the Indians.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. NYM) – Tonight’s rematch between Stras and Matt Harvey lacks the the title-bout feel that it would have at the end of last season, but that’s not due to anything that Stras is doing. He has been a stable source of innings and strikeouts throughout the season, going 6.0 or more frames in all nine starts and cracking double-digit Ks in four of his last seven turns. He has been vulnerable to run tallies recently, but in his start just five days ago versus the Mets he broke the string of multi-run outings, limiting the Mets to a single run on six hits and walk, striking out 10 hitters over 6.0 innings. We’ll see if he can top that stat-line with the home performance.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

David Price BOS (vs. COL) – The Price is still on discount due to his atrocious run of games a couple weeks ago, but the southpaw has turned in a pair of very strong starts since making a mechanical adjustment. Facing the Astros and the Royals, Price pitched a combined 14.0 innings of 1.93 ERA baseball with 17 strikeouts against two walks and 11 hits allowed. He faces the Rockies at home today in an interleague matchup, where not only have the Rockies been grounded, but Price also gains a generous platoon advantage against Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. MIL) – With a 1-4 record in nine starts this season despite a 2.73 ERA, rostering Teheran essentially assures that the W points will be left on the table. Ryan Braun returned to the Milwaukee lineup Sunday, so Teheran won’t likely get the benefit of facing a Braun-less Brewers lineup, though it remains to be seen whether all of the nagging injuries start to affect him at the plate. Teheran has been a factory of run prevention over his last six starts, allowing just five earned runs over his last 39.0 innings (1.15 ERA). Despite the recent run of dominance, the strikeouts have been been a bit light, including 13 Ks in his last three starts and 19.2 innings pitched.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at ATL) – Nelson is having a career year so far in 2016, that is if you look only at his 3.07 ERA. Otherwise, his strikeouts are down (19.3 percent) and his walks are up (9.6 percent), both to below-average levels, and his rate of homers allowed (3.4 percent) is also a career worst. How he has skirted between the raindrops is beyond me, but Nelson will likely continue to stay dry with an easy road assignment in Atlanta.

Jeff Samardzija SF (vs. SD) – The laws of inertia state that a pitcher in motion tends to stay in motion (or something like that), and if that holds then Samardzija should continue mowing down hitters like he has over his last four turns. He has pitched 8.0 full innings in three of his last four starts, and the one “outlier” fell one out short at 7.2 innings pitched. Samardzija has also struck out eight or more batters in three of those starts, the last of which came May 19 against these same Padres. In that contest, Samardzija allowed just three base runners over eight full frames, striking out eight batters en route to the easy W.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Odorizzi	0.270	2.79	0.333	4.21	0.259	0.698	0.273	3.80	0.234	0.01	20.8%
Koehler	0.339	4.34	0.315	4.05	0.244	0.706	0.291	4.52	0.255	0.00	17.0%
Miller	0.337	3.74	0.277	3.51	0.266	0.739	0.288	3.96	0.244	0.00	18.9%
Liriano	0.270	2.94	0.301	3.82	0.262	0.754	0.293	3.59	0.227	0.01	26.0%
Harvey	0.324	3.85	0.254	2.85	0.245	0.712	0.299	3.17	0.241	0.01	23.7%
Strasburg	0.245	2.41	0.310	4.14	0.244	0.717	0.311	2.65	0.229	0.01	30.0%
Dickey	0.307	3.93	0.317	4.11	0.247	0.735	0.264	4.48	0.245	0.00	14.9%
Eovaldi	0.353	4.81	0.284	3.83	0.259	0.775	0.329	3.51	0.276	0.01	19.0%
Hellickson	0.348	4.33	0.325	4.55	0.268	0.740	0.292	4.40	0.256	0.01	20.3%
Verlander	0.266	2.92	0.309	4.61	0.243	0.676	0.273	3.64	0.228	0.01	22.4%
Hammel	0.312	2.77	0.294	3.95	0.266	0.760	0.286	3.61	0.235	0.01	23.9%
Wacha	0.283	3.53	0.315	3.51	0.249	0.740	0.287	3.79	0.243	0.01	20.0%
De La Rosa	0.308	5.63	0.352	4.93	0.273	0.763	0.303	4.51	0.254	0.01	21.9%
Price	0.279	2.76	0.280	3.17	0.259	0.705	0.302	2.76	0.233	0.01	26.2%
Nelson	0.358	5.18	0.264	2.89	0.256	0.679	0.274	4.23	0.236	0.01	19.6%
Teheran	0.379	5.24	0.250	2.57	0.256	0.715	0.280	4.25	0.241	0.00	20.3%
Chacin	0.340	5.34	0.292	3.58	0.257	0.736	0.286	4.22	0.251	0.02	19.6%
Perez	0.247	1.86	0.331	4.67	0.234	0.671	0.299	3.88	0.262	0.01	14.0%
Tillman	0.306	3.19	0.334	5.72	0.247	0.746	0.292	4.09	0.251	0.00	18.3%
Fister	0.341	4.39	0.330	3.99	0.259	0.765	0.299	4.55	0.278	0.00	13.8%
Tomlin	0.224	2.06	0.337	4.31	0.252	0.702	0.217	4.47	0.211	0.01	20.6%
Sale	0.254	2.44	0.269	3.06	0.264	0.726	0.290	2.75	0.216	0.01	30.4%
Volquez	0.292	3.05	0.319	4.16	0.241	0.693	0.293	3.86	0.250	0.00	18.2%
Santana	0.335	4.67	0.294	2.92	0.265	0.729	0.289	4.01	0.249	0.01	18.5%
Wright					0.245	0.725
Bolsinger	0.345	2.36	0.292	4.63	0.244	0.698	0.303	4.01	0.253	0.01	20.5%
Graveman	0.336	3.44	0.356	5.47	0.243	0.723	0.302	4.96	0.277	0.01	15.9%
Karns	0.301	2.95	0.310	4.29	0.249	0.703	0.289	3.97	0.236	0.01	23.8%
Cashner	0.364	4.98	0.316	3.99	0.264	0.739	0.327	3.95	0.272	0.01	20.1%
Samardzija	0.344	5.37	0.288	3.60	0.240	0.676	0.297	3.90	0.259	0.00	18.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. PHI) – Verlander found another gear following his last seven-run drubbing, and now he has a three-start run of a 1.61 ERA and 27:7 K:BB ratio in 22.1 innings. He’s pitched 7.0 or more innings in each contest and struck out at eight hitters or more, with a hit count of 13 over over the stretch. He was beating the likes of Baltimore and Texas in those games, so tonight he gets a vacation despite pitching at home against the Phillies, whose offense is one of the worst in the majors no matter how we slice up the numbers. Verlander will look to lower his 4.58 ERA but also tack on to the rates of better than a K per inning and a three-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. There’s plenty of risk that Verlander will turn back into a pumpkin, but Phillies have a way of extending that curfew past midnight.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. ARI) – Liriano seems to have a self-destruct button that will go off at any time. He’s a walk machine, has given up nine homers already this season and has a knack for crooked numbers on the scoreboard (4.63 ERA this season). He’s had two dominant starts on his 2016 resume, both of which exceeded 30 points on DraftKings and which both occurred against the Cardinals. It might be a coincidence, or perhaps Liriano has the Cards hitters figured out, but outside of those games he has only exceeded 15 points one other time this season. For their part, the Diamondbacks bring a top-10 offense in terms of wOBA and OPS that only gets bettered when looking at their performance against left-handers. The upside’s there, but it comes at a heavy cost of risk, which makes Liriano an excellent play for large tournaments but inherently risky for cash games.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at MIA) – For the most part, Odorizzi has been a solid performer this season, holding the opposition to two runs or fewer in six of his nine starts. However, his K count topped out in his first start of the year (10) and he hasn’t cleared more than a half-dozen strikeouts in any game since. The bad starts have been pretty rough, dropping down into the negatives for fantasy points in two of his turns. When taking a step back to look at the overall numbers, we see that the strikeouts are down and the homers are up, a dangerous combination that could explode on Odorizzi if the Miami bats wake up from their nap.

Matt Harvey NYM (at WAS) – Harvey is far off the mark on multiple levels. His velocity is down, his mechanical balance is all over the place, he is throwing the baseball from a shallower release point and his arm slot is more erratic. Harvey imploded in his last start, lasting just 2.2 innings while the A’s scored nine runs, further padding the juggernaut offense of the Red Sox. The Mets have been very cautious with Harvey and tried to bring him along slowly, but his issues seem to stem from poor physical fitness, related to functional strength and flexibility. In other words, it could take awhile before he right the ship.

Jason Hammel CHC (at STL)

Nate Karns SEA (vs. OAK)

Nathan Eovaldi NYY (vs. TOR)

Edinson Volquez KC (at MIN)

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. CHW)

Chris Tillman BAL (at HOU)

Michael Wacha STL (vs. CHC)

Andrew Cashner SD (at SF)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at DET)

Shelby Miller ARI (at PIT)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. LAA)