Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 31st

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-01 02:17:34

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
McCullers	HOU	ARI	141.1	3.38	3.63	1.23		25.4%	9.3%	0.70	1.53
Corbin	ARI	HOU	147	3.86	3.78	1.29		19.7%	5.8%	1.16	1.67
Shields	SDP	SEA	267	3.71	3.80	1.33	42.9%	24.2%	9.3%	1.35	1.36
Iwakuma	SEA	SDP	192	3.80	3.68	1.17	60.0%	20.4%	4.9%	1.17	1.44
Lewis	TEX	CLE	268.2	4.35	4.42	1.22	11.8%	16.7%	4.9%	1.21	0.76
Kluber	CLE	TEX	288.2	3.55	3.06	1.07	57.1%	27.0%	5.3%	0.84	1.29
Rodriguez	BOS	BAL	121.2	3.85	4.16	1.29		18.8%	7.1%	0.96	1.29
Gausman	BAL	BOS	154	3.97	3.68	1.20	37.5%	21.8%	5.9%	1.34	1.21
Ross	WAS	PHI	130.1	3.18	3.87	1.15		20.6%	6.9%	0.76	1.49
Nola	PHI	WAS	143.2	3.38	3.24	1.08		23.8%	5.4%	1.00	1.78
Sabathia	NYY	TOR	208.2	4.36	4.11	1.38	25.0%	19.2%	7.2%	1.25	1.37
Happ	TOR	NYY	236.2	3.50	4.02	1.24	30.8%	19.8%	6.7%	0.87	1.24
Latos	CWS	NYM	167.1	4.68	4.29	1.34	66.7%	17.6%	7.0%	1.13	1.31
Matz	NYM	CWS	85.1	2.32	3.23	1.09		24.5%	5.5%	0.74	1.71
Cole	PIT	MIA	261.1	2.58	3.42	1.13	28.6%	23.4%	5.7%	0.48	1.51
Fernandez	MIA	PIT	125.1	2.87	2.73	1.17	75.0%	33.1%	7.7%	0.57	1.25
Peavy	SFG	ATL	159	4.70	4.39	1.32	42.1%	17.5%	6.4%	1.13	0.90
Wisler	ATL	SFG	170.1	4.12	4.74	1.30		16.3%	7.6%	1.16	0.79
Kazmir	LAD	CHC	240.2	3.52	4.04	1.23	63.2%	21.2%	8.0%	1.20	1.14
Arrieta	CHC	LAD	297	1.76	2.86	0.87	50.0%	26.8%	6.1%	0.39	2.44
Leake	STL	MIL	254.1	3.75	4.19	1.16	45.0%	15.1%	6.0%	1.10	1.93
Peralta	MIL	STL	160.1	5.33	4.78	1.65	47.4%	13.2%	8.2%	1.29	1.79
Smyly	TBR	KCR	128.2	3.50	3.31	1.11	50.0%	27.6%	6.7%	1.54	0.72
Gee	KCR	TBR	74.2	4.94	4.24	1.57	50.0%	16.9%	7.1%	1.45	1.44
Moscot	CIN	COL	27.1	4.28	6.00	1.39		9.8%	11.4%	1.98	1.06
Gray	COL	CIN	80	5.74	3.61	1.47		24.2%	7.7%	0.79	1.43
Sanchez	DET	LAA	210.2	5.25	4.21	1.36	41.2%	20.6%	8.4%	1.71	0.98
Santiago	LAA	DET	235.2	3.82	4.50	1.26	16.7%	20.3%	9.1%	1.53	0.64
Duffey	MIN	OAK	94.2	3.42	3.83	1.31		20.8%	7.0%	0.67	1.59
Surkamp	OAK	MIN	25.1	7.11	5.78	1.89		12.4%	11.6%	2.13	0.73

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. LAD) – Safety versus upside. That’s what the decision will boil down to when choosing a top-end ace on today’s slate, at least that’s how it will look on the surface, though it’s odd that a pitcher with two no-hitters in his last 17 starts would be considered the “safe” option rather than the one with upside. Arrieta is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up four runs to the Cardinals over five innings in St. Louis. He also gave up his first home run since April 10 and still got the win, taking his record to 9-0. Otherwise, he’s been up to his same old tricks, with a sub-2.00 ERA on the season and a strikeout-per-inning. He has pitched 7.0 or more frames in seven of his ten starts, and in the two games prior Arrieta had averaged more than 33 points per game (DraftKings).

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. PIT) – In the fantasy mound game, strikeouts reign supreme, and there may not be a better choice in the league to rack up a high K count right now than Jose Fernandez. His strikeout rate of 13.4 K/9 leads the majors by a wide margin (runner-up Noah Syndergaard has 11.3 K/9), and though Fern’s biggest K count in a game this season (13) came in his first game of the season, he is currently on a ridiculous run. In his last four starts, Fernandez has a 1.00 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 27.0 innings, averaging nearly seven innings and 11 strikeouts per start. He hadn’t cracked 6.0 frames in any of his first six starts, but in three of the past four he has completed the seventh inning and done so with 11 or more strikeouts. The Pirates have been turning the offensive wheels lately, with a .356 wOBA and .827 OPS over the last seven days, but there’s no stopping a Fern on fire.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Steven Matz NYM (vs. CHW) – Young pitchers are supposed to be volatile, but Matz carries one of the highest floors in baseball when looking at his 2016 track record. His first start of the season was a disaster, but he has earned the big W in each of the seven starts since, tossing 6.0 or more frames while allowing zero runs in four of the starts and exactly two earned runs in each of the other three. Matz has recorded more than 19 points (DraftKings) in each of those seven starts. He has punched out a consistent batter-per-inning this season and his K:BB ratio of 50:9 demonstrates his ability to manipulate the strike zone at will.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. TEX) – Kluber has been a frustrating pitcher to roster this season, mixing good starts and bad with a seeming disregard for the strength of opponent. He coughed up six runs at home against the Mets in one start, then turned around and two-hit the Tigers over eight innings in Detroit, with 10 strikeouts and no walks. He gives up nine runs over 9.1 innings across two consecutive starts against the Twins and Astros, then turns around and spins 14.1 frames of 1.88-ERA baseball with 15 combined strikeouts against the Red Sox and White Sox (both on the road). The latter represented his last two turns, and though facing Texas at home is theoretically an easier task, his wayward patterns of performance leave open the possibility that things go south for the right-hander.

Gerrit Cole PIT (at MIA) – The zero-K start of two turns ago will likely mar the perception of his strikeout upside for several weeks, but he didn’t help his current stock much by lasting just 5.0 innings and scoring just 15.25 points (DraftKings) in his followup performance. His run prevention has actually been excellent for the last four starts, compiling a 1.04 ERA over 26.0 combined innings, but his pitch-count efficiency has been a bit lacking. In four of his last six starts, Cole has thrown 103 or more pitches yet registered 18 outs or fewer, but Cole also flashed his upside two turns ago when he blanked the Cubs over 8.0 innings with seven strikeouts, zero walks and just three hits allowed at Wrigley Field. His task should theoretically be easier this time around.

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. WAS) – Nola lies on the opposite end of the pitch-efficiency spectrum as Cole, at least this season, having thrown (exactly) 7.0 innings in seven of his 10 starts yet keeping the pitch count at 100 pitches or less in four of those games. He has struck out a half-dozen batters or more in nine of ten (the other game had a five-count of Ks), has only walked more than one batter three times (and more than two batters once) and has recently dodged bullets with six of the last 11 runs he allowed being unearned. He only has one real trip-up this season, when he gave up seven hits, three walks and seven runs (all season highs) in 5.0 innings… against these Nationals.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
McCullers	0.263	3.17	0.321	3.58	0.267	0.745	0.293	3.29	0.225	0.01	25.4%
Corbin	0.267	1.89	0.342	4.43	0.242	0.738	0.308	3.93	0.266	0.01	19.7%
Shields	0.364	3.89	0.297	3.54	0.246	0.729	0.301	4.31	0.248	0.01	24.2%
Iwakuma	0.311	3.53	0.302	4.04	0.239	0.675	0.290	3.81	0.252	0.01	20.4%
Lewis	0.326	4.36	0.304	4.35	0.252	0.726	0.285	4.22	0.259	0.00	16.7%
Kluber	0.318	4.12	0.242	3.01	0.257	0.735	0.296	2.95	0.228	0.01	27.0%
Rodriguez	0.350	4.91	0.292	3.51	0.237	0.670	0.289	3.92	0.249	0.01	18.8%
Gausman	0.262	2.79	0.361	5.17	0.271	0.763	0.284	4.06	0.245	0.01	21.8%
Ross	0.343	3.21	0.226	3.15	0.244	0.676	0.273	3.47	0.229	0.01	20.6%
Nola	0.298	3.90	0.259	3.03	0.245	0.711	0.276	3.35	0.228	0.01	23.8%
Sabathia	0.250	4.01	0.350	4.45	0.269	0.790	0.312	4.34	0.271	0.01	19.2%
Happ	0.285	2.22	0.309	3.90	0.253	0.728	0.299	3.64	0.253	0.00	19.8%
Latos	0.342	4.99	0.309	4.40	0.242	0.715	0.297	4.18	0.262	0.01	17.6%
Matz	0.325	2.37	0.245	2.31	0.245	0.666	0.291	2.98	0.231	0.02	24.5%
Cole	0.277	2.20	0.284	2.95	0.260	0.697	0.307	2.75	0.24	0.01	23.4%
Fernandez	0.348	3.61	0.218	2.34	0.268	0.742	0.345	2.27	0.231	0.02	33.1%
Peavy	0.337	3.96	0.333	5.36	0.254	0.676	0.300	4.14	0.266	0.01	17.5%
Wisler	0.363	4.58	0.280	3.73	0.263	0.737	0.277	4.50	0.252	0.01	16.3%
Kazmir	0.334	4.70	0.296	3.11	0.241	0.713	0.272	4.25	0.234	0.01	21.2%
Arrieta	0.217	1.47	0.230	2.00	0.245	0.725	0.240	2.43	0.18	0.01	26.8%
Leake	0.311	4.26	0.282	3.19	0.255	0.713	0.259	4.29	0.24	0.00	15.1%
Peralta	0.377	4.97	0.390	5.69	0.264	0.756	0.340	5.03	0.314	0.00	13.2%
Smyly	0.264	1.84	0.305	3.99	0.267	0.717	0.270	3.96	0.223	0.01	27.6%
Gee	0.418	5.25	0.297	4.66	0.244	0.706	0.336	4.76	0.3	0.01	16.9%
Moscot	0.358	3.29	0.299	5.27	0.270	0.770	0.200	6.73	0.222	0.02	9.8%
Gray	0.326	4.81	0.353	6.64	0.242	0.693	0.367	3.29	0.283	0.00	24.2%
Sanchez	0.313	4.55	0.370	6.03	0.254	0.715	0.285	4.95	0.255	0.00	20.6%
Santiago	0.280	2.76	0.331	4.20	0.272	0.781	0.252	4.91	0.228	0.00	20.3%
Duffey	0.323	2.85	0.303	3.86	0.250	0.702	0.319	3.27	0.26	0.01	20.8%
Surkamp			0.371	4.82	0.253	0.713	0.31	7.28	0.303	0.00	12.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Joe Ross WAS (at PHI) – Ross was the toast of DC through his first five starts of the season, with his celebrity status stamped by a nine-strikeout, two-run outing over 6.2 innings against the Cubs (Ross would go on to get the loss in that game), but he followed that up with his roughest start of the year. Ross allowed zero home runs across those first five games, but he has allowed exactly one bomb in each of the last four turns. He keeps the walks down, never having more than two batters in a start this season, but limited strikeouts keep a low ceiling on the fantasy-point upside. He’s now at 41 strikeouts in 53.2 innings for a low strikeout rate of 6.9 K/9, a value low enough to nearly negate the p[ositive impact of his 2.52 ERA in the world of DFS.

Drew Smyly TB (at KC) – Remember when this guy was the new big thing, striking out double-digit hitters and dominating the Red Sox with eight scoreless innings of one-hit baseball? That time seems like a long time ago, and May has written a completely different story for the southpaw. He has pitched between 5.0-6.1 innings in each of five starts this month, totaling 27.1 frames, and has posted a 5.60 ERA over that stretch. He hasn’t struck out more than six batters in any one game this month, and he has been particularly susceptible to homers with six given up this month and 11 home runs surrendered on the season (HR/9). The strikeouts are unlikely to rebound against the Royals, but he might also be able to keep the ball in the yard given the World Champions’ contact-heavy style of play.

James Shields SD (at SEA) – Shields has quietly and consistently put together a strong campaign in 2016. He has thrown at least six innings in all 10 starts, earning a quality start in eight of those turns. The former control artist may have recently fixed what ailed him for the first seven starts of the season, as Shields has allowed just three walks over his last 19.2 innings (three starts) with 22 strikeouts on the positive side of the ledger. Prior to that run, he had given away free passes to 20 batters in 45.0 innings, or 4.0 BB/9. Shields might be turning things around, but the losing environment in San Diego might serve to obscure his value from view.

Lance McCullers HOU (at ARI) – Well, that’s one way to keep the opponent off the board. McCullers was burying everything in his last start, throwing a ton of dirty breaking balls yet never elevating a single pitch above the strike zone, and the tough-to-hit locations resulted in one hit yet six walks and ten strikeouts through just 5.0 innings, but the tick counts on batters escalated McCullers to 108 pitches despite his getting just the 15 outs. McCullers now has 21 strikeouts but 12 walks through three starts and 15.2 innings, with improving run prevention along the way. He returned from injury with a difficult three-start run against Boston, Baltimore and Texas, and things won’t get much easier in today’s matchup with Arizona.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. SD)

Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. HOU)

CC Sabathia NYY (at TOR)

J.A. Happ TOR (vs. NYY)

Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. BOS)

Colby Lewis TEX (at CLE)

Mike Leake STL (at MIL)

Scott Kazmir LAD (at CHC)

Jake Peavy SF (at ATL)

Matt Wisler ATL (vs. SF)

Mat Latos CHW (at NYM)

Hector Santiago LAA (vs. DET)