Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 9th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | SDP | 139.1 | 4.84 | 4.44 | 1.31 | 21.74% | 22.0% | 8.6% | 2.07 | 29.4% |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | PHI | 91 | 3.76 | 4.4 | 1.15 | 40.00% | 19.7% | 7.0% | 1.78 | 36.2% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | BAL | 269 | 2.91 | 3.03 | 0.96 | 67.65% | 31.6% | 6.3% | 1.20 | 32.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | TOR | 187.2 | 3.07 | 3.4 | 1.08 | 44.00% | 25.2% | 5.6% | 1.25 | 47.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFG | NYM | 242.2 | 4.01 | 3.94 | 1.19 | 46.88% | 21.5% | 6.5% | 1.11 | 45.7% |
| Chris Young | KCR | TBR | 99.1 | 5.98 | 4.41 | 1.66 | 15.38% | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.63 | 33.3% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | CIN | 212.2 | 4.15 | 4.42 | 1.35 | 40.00% | 19.3% | 8.7% | 1.18 | 49.2% |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | MIA | 228.2 | 4.84 | 4.25 | 1.48 | 33.33% | 19.3% | 7.0% | 1.02 | 43.8% |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | MIL | 197.2 | 3.41 | 3.71 | 1.19 | 46.67% | 26.9% | 9.0% | 1.23 | 45.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | HOU | 224.2 | 3.85 | 4.4 | 1.24 | 48.48% | 16.2% | 4.4% | 1.16 | 42.4% |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | CHW | 217.2 | 4.38 | 5.01 | 1.33 | 36.36% | 18.1% | 9.7% | 1.49 | 34.4% |
| John Lackey | CHC | COL | 223.1 | 3.63 | 3.79 | 1.11 | 55.17% | 23.9% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 42.1% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | ARI | 264 | 3.2 | 3.57 | 1.05 | 64.71% | 27.3% | 7.0% | 1.13 | 32.7% |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | OAK | 33 | 6.55 | 5 | 1.79 | 22.9% | 15.3% | 0.82 | 43.8% | |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | LAD | 204 | 3.75 | 3.7 | 1.18 | 30.77% | 18.3% | 3.4% | 1.10 | 52.9% |
| Jered Weaver | SDP | TEX | 210.2 | 5.13 | 5.33 | 1.43 | 35.48% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.09 | 31.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | SEA | 233.1 | 3.7 | 4.07 | 1.17 | 42.42% | 20.8% | 5.7% | 1.27 | 40.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | WAS | 168.1 | 5.61 | 4.9 | 1.58 | 24.00% | 18.9% | 11.9% | 1.18 | 48.2% |
| Michael Bolsinger | TOR | CLE | |||||||||
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | SFG | 26.1 | 4.78 | 3.89 | 1.25 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 1.03 | 50.7% | |
| Matt Andriese | TBR | KCR | 162.2 | 4.09 | 3.95 | 1.24 | 21.05% | 20.7% | 5.7% | 1.27 | 44.2% |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | NYY | 91 | 4.05 | 4.57 | 1.19 | 30.77% | 17.9% | 6.4% | 1.78 | 35.9% |
| Dan Straily | MIA | STL | 222.1 | 3.89 | 4.63 | 1.19 | 45.16% | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.46 | 32.7% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | BOS | 159 | 4.87 | 4.51 | 1.52 | 30.43% | 17.4% | 8.1% | 1.42 | 48.7% |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | ATL | 51.1 | 4.03 | 3.34 | 1.32 | 50.00% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 0.70 | 53.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | MIN | 133.1 | 5.06 | 5.37 | 1.7 | 18.18% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 1.08 | 50.7% |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | CHC | 34 | 2.65 | 4.42 | 1.32 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 0.26 | 64.2% | |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | DET | 210.2 | 4.66 | 3.55 | 1.43 | 28.13% | 28.8% | 9.6% | 1.20 | 45.6% |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | LAA | 62.1 | 3.47 | 4.39 | 1.17 | 60.00% | 19.7% | 7.3% | 1.01 | 37.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | PIT | 69 | 4.17 | 4.43 | 1.3 | 22.22% | 24.0% | 12.2% | 0.65 | 37.7% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (at BAL, $11800) – This was a close call, as Scherzer has a vulnerability towards home runs and the Orioles have a power-packed lineup and one of the game’s friendliest venues for homers, elements that bring an element of doubt to his profile. The homer issues that plagued him last season have begun to return, with five combined homers allowed in his last three games after giving up zero homers in his first three turns of the season. That said, he’s still one of the best accumulators of points on the mound today, with at least six full frames and no fewer than seven strikeouts (and as many as 11) in any start this season. He has topped 25 points on DraftKings in five of his six starts this season and has cleared 30 points in three of his last four, and though he carries the highest salary of the day, the $11800 price tag is on the low end to secure his services (his previous low cost this season was $12600).
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at TOR, $10600) – The margin that kept Carrasco out of the All-In throne was razor thin, as the right-hander is enjoying an outstanding season, his opponent is still an empty shell without the presence of their biggest bat, and the salary is very reasonable for a pitcher of his ilt. Unlike Scherzer, however, Carrasco is often priced within this range or lower, as he doesn’t have the big-game upside or the game-to-game consistency of the Nats’ Ace. Carrasco has been nearly as dominant so far this season, with a 2.18 ERA, less than two walks per nine and a Scherzerian 5.7 H/9 (Scherzer leads the NL with 5.8 H/9), though Carrasco has struck out just under a batter-per-inning on balance this season, far enough off pace from Scherzer’s 11.3 K/9.to warrant the relative ranking.
Justin Verlander DET (at ARI, $10000) – Verlander seems to have re-stabilized the boat after getting rocked by the Indians in mid-April, a game that has accounted for more than half of his earned runs to date (9 of 17), though a preponderance of walks has infiltrated two of his last three starts. He gave up three homers in that Cleveland game but has given up zero bombs in 32.1 innings across his other five starts. One of Verlander’s greatest strengths from a DFS perspective is his stamina and long leash, with seven-inning starts being a regular occurrence and pitch counts that routinely climb beyond 110 pitches. The strikeouts have been uncharacteristically tame, and though the season totals seem fine at first glance (35 K in 36.1 IP), a deeper look reveals that he has only had more than five strikeouts in two of his six starts. The innings count will likely push him past 20 points on DraftKings, but the strikeouts are the key to a big score.
Ivan Nova PIT (at LAD, $8200) – Nova gets extra credit in formats that reward quality starts, because he can rip through six frames in about 90 pitches and do so without putting any free passes on the bases. He’s gone at least 6.0 innings in every start this season, has two complete games on his 2017 resume (one a shutout), and yet has not needed more than 95 pitches in any game this season. Despite being a strike-thrower, a trait that often carries hard-contact consequences, Nova has given up just two home runs this season, and even his hit rate is better than average despite giving up 10 hits in 6.0 innings in his last start. He did give up four earned runs in his last turn, snapping a streak of five consecutive quality starts, but odds are in favor of his starting another streak today.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | SDP | 0.402 | 5.8 | 0.291 | 4.04 | 0.246 | 4.44 | 0.267 | 5.51 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | PHI | 0.328 | 2.5 | 0.301 | 4.07 | 0.23 | 4.4 | 0.241 | 4.95 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | BAL | 0.32 | 3.29 | 0.204 | 2.57 | 0.194 | 3.03 | 0.252 | 3.21 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | TOR | 0.309 | 2.92 | 0.277 | 3.19 | 0.227 | 3.4 | 0.274 | 3.64 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFG | NYM | 0.343 | 5.07 | 0.266 | 3.07 | 0.244 | 3.94 | 0.287 | 3.81 |
| Chris Young | KCR | TBR | 0.461 | 8.03 | 0.324 | 4.58 | 0.288 | 4.41 | 0.318 | 6.37 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | CIN | 0.288 | 2.88 | 0.324 | 4.45 | 0.251 | 4.42 | 0.289 | 4.45 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | MIA | 0.369 | 5.67 | 0.33 | 4.21 | 0.293 | 4.25 | 0.347 | 3.91 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | MIL | 0.299 | 2.37 | 0.287 | 3.76 | 0.218 | 3.71 | 0.272 | 3.81 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | HOU | 0.338 | 4.09 | 0.299 | 3.61 | 0.269 | 4.4 | 0.296 | 4.06 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | CHW | 0.347 | 4.83 | 0.318 | 4.28 | 0.239 | 5.01 | 0.259 | 5.07 |
| John Lackey | CHC | COL | 0.309 | 3.64 | 0.281 | 3.62 | 0.224 | 3.79 | 0.265 | 3.96 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | ARI | 0.274 | 3.42 | 0.279 | 2.97 | 0.208 | 3.57 | 0.26 | 3.49 |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | OAK | 0.398 | 7.43 | 0.341 | 5.95 | 0.265 | 5 | 0.344 | 4.38 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | LAD | 0.348 | 4.04 | 0.288 | 3.54 | 0.262 | 3.7 | 0.298 | 3.77 |
| Jered Weaver | SDP | TEX | 0.352 | 4.65 | 0.378 | 5.51 | 0.289 | 5.33 | 0.288 | 5.9 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | SEA | 0.344 | 3.95 | 0.264 | 3.43 | 0.243 | 4.07 | 0.279 | 4.06 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | WAS | 0.38 | 6.24 | 0.313 | 5.16 | 0.265 | 4.9 | 0.308 | 4.78 |
| Michael Bolsinger | TOR | CLE | ||||||||
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | SFG | 0.358 | 6.94 | 0.236 | 3.07 | 0.23 | 3.89 | 0.278 | 3.83 |
| Matt Andriese | TBR | KCR | 0.298 | 3.42 | 0.319 | 4.69 | 0.257 | 3.95 | 0.297 | 3.96 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | NYY | 0.327 | 4.43 | 0.336 | 3.75 | 0.244 | 4.57 | 0.255 | 5.2 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | STL | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.32 | 3.85 | 0.212 | 4.63 | 0.234 | 4.86 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | BOS | 0.385 | 4.6 | 0.346 | 5.1 | 0.294 | 4.51 | 0.33 | 4.78 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | ATL | 0.263 | 2.22 | 0.361 | 5.67 | 0.253 | 3.34 | 0.338 | 3.09 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | MIN | 0.379 | 5.21 | 0.364 | 4.91 | 0.321 | 5.37 | 0.338 | 5.12 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | CHC | 0.303 | 4.91 | 0.289 | 2.03 | 0.24 | 4.42 | 0.278 | 3.62 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | DET | 0.281 | 4.61 | 0.341 | 4.67 | 0.256 | 3.55 | 0.344 | 3.67 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | LAA | 0.261 | 3.21 | 0.309 | 3.67 | 0.226 | 0.26 | 3.85 | |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | PIT | 4.73 | 0.275 | 3.68 | 0.22 | 0.284 | 3.64 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Julio Urias LAD (vs. PIT, $8000) – I want to boost Urias to the Raise category based just on his talent, but the young southpaw will not be able to cross that threshold until he puts together a more impressive run at the major-league level. Perhaps I shouldn’t quibble with a 20-year-old who carries a 0.84 ERA through his first two starts of the season, but I can’t look past the inefficient pitch usage given that his workloads are being so closely monitored. Urias has walked four batters in each of his starts, but a lack strikeouts has given him a weak 5:8 K:BB and the extra batters with deep counts have rung up his pitch totals and resulted in his exit before finishing the sixth inning.
Robbie Ray ARI (vs. DET, $9200) – Ray flashed his considerable upside in his last start, striking out 10 batters against just one walk, surrendering two runs on four hits along the way. Even more impressive was that he did this against the Nats and their potent lineup. It was his lowest walk count of the season and tied for his highest K-count, and the true outcome hero has now compiled a 49:18 K:BB across 36.1 innings this season. The Tigers have several patient hitters that will test Ray’s control of the strike zone, but perhaps more importantly is the fact that Tigers eat southpaws for breakfast, and Detroit’s lineup is especially tuned to tee off.
Jeff Samardzija SF (at NYM, $9400) – The peripherals are dominant, including an excellent 46:10 K:BB over 39.1 innings this season, but the outlandish 5.03 ERA brings back memories have the Shark’s horrific 2015 season, especially because those runs are built on the homer, as Samardzija has given up six home runs already this season. Despite the copious amount of runs being scored against him, Samardzija has pitched deep enough and strung together enough strikeouts to score 17 or more points on DraftKings in four of his last five starts, including 38.2 points in his 8.0-inning, 11-strikeout gem against the rival Dodgers in his last start.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. SEA, $7400) – Eickhoff is having a decent season despite the 0-3 record, with a 4.06 ERA that’s better than league average and a 3.33 FIP based on strong peripherals, but it is concerning that his walk rate has skyrocketed. The right-hander kept the free passes to a minimum the last two seasons, but his rate has jumped from a career 5.4 percent mark entering the season to the 8.6 percent rate of 2017, fueling a career-high WHIP (still a respectable 1.25) and acting as a drag on his innings-counts thanks to the inefficient distribution of pitches. Eickhoff hasn’t finished the sixth inning in any of his last three starts despite throwing 97 or more pitches in each contest. His strikeouts currently outnumber his hits allowed (33 to 32), but he will need to trim the walks for his value to go unscathed through his next few starts. The Mariners’ offense can punish a pitcher who isn’t hitting his spots.
Matt Andriese TB (vs. KC, $7900) – Andriese is coming off his best start of the season, as he tied for his longest outing of the year by spinning 7.0 scoreless frames (his first run-free outing) and set a season-high with eight strikeouts against Miami. He had stroke out exactly four or five batters in each of his first five starts, but Andriese threw a season-high 113 pitches en route to his fourth quality starts in the last five outings. He’s unlikely to match that K-count against the Royals, who rank 24th in baseball in terms of batter strikeouts, but Andriese’s ERA (currently at 3.09) could plunge into the twos against the lowest-scoring offense in the game.
Drew Pomeranz BOS (at MIL, $8100) – It might only be five starts, but so far this season Pomeranz has put up true outcome stats that are a bit haywire. Last season was his first to finish with more than a K per inning, tallying 9.8 K/9, and this season he has upped the ante even further with 34 punchouts in 27.0 innings (11.3 K/9). He’s kept up a league average walk rate of 3.0 BB/9, but that represents an improvement for a pitcher that hasn’t walked fewer than 3.2 batters per nine since his 18-inning cameo as a rookie. The K and walk rates would seem to set him up for a career-best ERA, but Pomeranz has been giving away home runs when batters do make contact, with five homers allowed this season. He’s given up two or fewer runs in four of his five starts, but Pomeranz has not flashed much in the way of stamina, as his longest outing this season went just 6.0 innings, but at least some of the issue is tied to opponents, as Pomeranz has faced the powerful Orioles in three of his five starts this season, with games against the Cubs and Rays making up the other two turns. He won’t get much of a reprieve in today’s outing, given the Brewers and their MLB-leading homer total.
Jharel Cotton OAK (vs. LAA, $7800)
Zack Wheeler NYM (vs. SF, $7700)
Charlie Morton HOU (vs. ATL, $7600)
Adam Wainwright STL (at MIA, $7200)
Hector Santiago MIN (at CHW, $6800)
Ariel Miranda SEA (at PHI, $6900)
Dan Straily MIA (vs. STL, $7500)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. BOS, $5900)
CC Sabathia NYY (at CIN, $6400)
Tim Adleman CIN (vs. NYY, $5500)
Bartolo Colon ATL (at HOU, $6500)
Alex Meyer LAA (at OAK, $4800)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Chris Young KC (at TB, $4500)
Mike Pelfrey CHW (vs. MIN, $4400)
John Lackey CHC (at COL, $7000)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. WAS, $6200)
Kyle Freeland COL (vs. CHC, $5400)