Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 19th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
NOTE: CLE @ MIN has been postponed.
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | STL | 133 | 4.06 | 4.24 | 1.44 | 38.10% | 18.8% | 6.9% | 0.68 | 46.1% |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | CHC | 80.1 | 5.94 | 4.54 | 1.56 | 16.67% | 15.5% | 6.4% | 1.90 | 44.0% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | OAK | 215 | 4.23 | 5.1 | 1.44 | 48.48% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 0.84 | 52.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | SEA | 205 | 5.22 | 4.63 | 1.54 | 35.29% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.14 | 50.6% |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | NYY | 5.1 | 1.69 | 5.99 | 1.5 | 4.6% | 13.6% | 0.00 | 61.1% | |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | TOR | 239.2 | 3.45 | 3.75 | 1.06 | 45.45% | 21.4% | 3.7% | 1.05 | 42.8% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | NYM | |||||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | TBR | 116 | 4.89 | 4.9 | 1.36 | 33.33% | 14.6% | 6.5% | 1.16 | 41.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | CIN | 151 | 5.72 | 4.75 | 1.59 | 24.00% | 19.2% | 11.0% | 1.13 | 47.8% |
| Joseph Ross | WAS | ATL | |||||||||
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | MIN | 200.2 | 4.49 | 4.14 | 1.33 | 32.14% | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 48.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFG | KCR | 247.2 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.02 | 61.76% | 27.6% | 5.7% | 1.02 | 40.0% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | SDP | 175.1 | 4.36 | 4.09 | 1.29 | 50.00% | 20.0% | 6.2% | 1.23 | 46.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | LAD | 129 | 4.12 | 3.92 | 1.33 | 52.63% | 20.4% | 6.3% | 1.12 | 49.1% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | PIT | 150 | 4.92 | 4.22 | 1.46 | 33.33% | 19.5% | 7.3% | 1.02 | 45.8% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | MIL | 201 | 2.33 | 3.71 | 1 | 63.33% | 22.6% | 5.9% | 0.76 | 48.6% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | TEX | 58.1 | 5.55 | 5.06 | 1.58 | 22.22% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 1.23 | 46.2% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | MIA | 171.2 | 3.72 | 4.43 | 1.3 | 44.00% | 18.8% | 8.9% | 1.15 | 49.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | CHW | 213.2 | 3.41 | 3.85 | 1.13 | 58.06% | 20.3% | 5.0% | 1.05 | 48.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | BOS | 170 | 4.87 | 4.37 | 1.51 | 41.38% | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.43 | 51.0% |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | PHI | 55.1 | 3.74 | 3.7 | 1.36 | 42.86% | 23.4% | 8.5% | 0.49 | 53.6% |
| Chris Archer | TBR | DET | 221.2 | 3.86 | 3.51 | 1.24 | 33.33% | 26.9% | 7.8% | 1.22 | 47.6% |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | BAL | 12.2 | 1.42 | 3.58 | 0.71 | 19.6% | 4.4% | 0.71 | 47.1% | |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | WAS | 207 | 3 | 3.98 | 1.07 | 50.00% | 21.8% | 5.9% | 0.96 | 38.2% |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | CLE | 9 | 5 | 6.37 | 1.89 | 9.3% | 14.0% | 0.00 | 37.5% | |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 189 | 4.14 | 3.7 | 1.21 | 50.00% | 20.5% | 6.8% | 1.05 | 58.2% |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | SFG | 25.2 | 1.4 | 3.23 | 0.9 | 25.8% | 5.2% | 0.35 | 43.3% | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | ARI | 159 | 5.09 | 4.42 | 1.47 | 27.27% | 18.4% | 8.8% | 0.91 | 48.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | COL | 170.1 | 1.8 | 2.42 | 0.72 | 80.95% | 31.1% | 1.9% | 0.63 | 48.9% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (at KC, $11700) – The peripheral stats paint the picture of yet another run of dominance for Bumgarner, who has 24 strikeouts against just three walks in three starts covering 21.0 innings this season, yet his run prevention has sprung a leak in each of those first three turns, with the southpaw giving up multiple runs in each contest against division foes. He finally gets out of the NL West for today’s matchup, leaving the cozy (albeit chilly) confines of ATT Park for another pitcher-friendly venue in Kansas City. The Royals have scored the fewest runs in baseball with just 39 total tallies on the year (through 13 games), and they have been particularly useful against left-handed pitching, batting just .167/.272/.233 as a team against southpaws. The context of this matchup plays right into Bummer’s hands.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. COL, $13800) – The All-In space was Kershaw’s permanent parking spot last season, but with the incorporation of player salary and the value-related tint that was applied this season, he has found himself as merely a Raise option more often than not. That said, he’s so good that Kershaw is considered profitable even as his price tag approaches $14k. He walked his first batter of the season in his last start but otherwise cruised, tamping down 8.1 innings in just 100 pitches before finally giving way to the Dodgers’ bullpen. For any other pitcher, a 22:1 K:BB would be a remarkable feat, but for Kershaw it’s just another week at the office.
Chris Archer TB (vs. DET, $9700) – Archer has been very consistent through his first three starts of the year, giving up one-to-two earned runs over a half-dozen innings with another half-dozen strikeouts (give or take) in each outing. The Rays gave him a long leash at the start of the year, and after three games his pitch counts stand at 108-114-102, so there are no workload concerns for the right-hander and he should be left in to chew up innings and spit outs deep into the ballgame. The first-place Tigers have been staying afloat offensively in the absence of J.D. Martinez with a well-rounded attack, as seven of their regulars have a slugging percentage of .412 or higher, yet the team leader is the mercurial Justin Upton with a modest .472 slug, as no single bat has particularly stepped up in Martinez’s absence. The strikeouts have yet to come out in full force for Archer, but he carries the upside for double-digit Ks if he can harness the release point on his wicked slider, which the right-hander has deployed at a greater-than-40-percent frequency over the past two years combined.
Zack Greinke ARI (at SD, $8700) – Simple regression would call for a bounceback season from Greinke following his nightmare campaign of 2016, and everything was on track following his first two turns of the year, but then he went out and coughed up five runs on 10 hits and three walks over just 5.0 frames against the Dodgers in his last start, upending any optimism generated by those first two starts and once again calling into question whether the right-hander will rediscover his former ace-hood. The price tag indicates that those dominant years are behind him, despite the fact that Greinke is facing a thin Padres lineup that is prone to high strikeout totals, and that tonight’s game will be played under the marine layer at Petco Park. Greinke has gone over 105 pitches in each of his last two starts, so the workload concerns that have dogged Greinke in the past appear to be of little concern in tonight’s game, and there is profit potential here given Greinke’s baseline skills, his upside and his weak opponent.
Amir Garrett CIN (vs. BAL, $4800) – I’ll be the first to line up and say that Garrett is playing way over his head, and by all means his headache-inducing opponent and the homer-friendly venue up the ante of blowup risk. I definitely wouldn’t pencil him in for one of the top scores among starting pitchers today, but the salary is so outrageously low that he becomes a very attractive option, particularly in two-pitcher formats. At just $4800, a DFS gamer can splurge on Kershaw and still have plenty of money left over to field a strong lineup, and Garrett doesn’t need to do much to justify his salary. His efficiency has allowed Garrett to chew through six or more innings despite throwing just 78 and 96 pitches in each of his two starts, and there’s a non-zero chance that he puts together another solid start to reap heaps of fantasy profit for his owners.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | STL | 0.377 | 4.7 | 0.291 | 3.54 | 0.284 | 4.24 | 0.341 | 3.49 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | CHC | 0.353 | 4.42 | 0.37 | 6.39 | 0.302 | 4.54 | 0.321 | 5.37 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | OAK | 0.256 | 1.98 | 0.341 | 4.76 | 0.266 | 5.1 | 0.29 | 4.52 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | SEA | 0.349 | 5.38 | 0.335 | 5.05 | 0.28 | 4.63 | 0.318 | 4.55 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | NYY | 0.292 | 2.45 | 0.439 | 0 | 0.263 | 5.99 | 0.278 | 4.22 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | TOR | 0.273 | 2.98 | 0.298 | 3.97 | 0.237 | 3.75 | 0.277 | 3.53 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | NYM | ||||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | TBR | 0.304 | 5.49 | 0.369 | 4.23 | 0.274 | 4.9 | 0.298 | 4.47 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | CIN | 0.379 | 6 | 0.321 | 5.52 | 0.274 | 4.75 | 0.322 | 4.58 |
| Joseph Ross | WAS | ATL | ||||||||
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | MIN | 0.305 | 4.14 | 0.325 | 4.8 | 0.249 | 4.14 | 0.298 | 4.03 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFG | KCR | 0.212 | 2.4 | 0.281 | 2.89 | 0.21 | 3.3 | 0.267 | 3.17 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | SDP | 0.311 | 4.23 | 0.33 | 4.54 | 0.26 | 4.09 | 0.299 | 4 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | LAD | 0.304 | 2.9 | 0.338 | 4.5 | 0.27 | 3.92 | 0.318 | 3.87 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | PIT | 0.311 | 3.39 | 0.361 | 6.13 | 0.282 | 4.22 | 0.334 | 3.87 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | MIL | 0.28 | 1.91 | 0.241 | 2.63 | 0.208 | 3.71 | 0.252 | 3.27 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | TEX | 0.403 | 7.82 | 0.305 | 3.82 | 0.299 | 5.06 | 0.321 | 4.88 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | MIA | 0.314 | 3.35 | 0.32 | 4.02 | 0.243 | 4.43 | 0.277 | 4.52 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | CHW | 0.296 | 3.26 | 0.284 | 3.55 | 0.24 | 3.85 | 0.278 | 3.67 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | BOS | 0.323 | 4.23 | 0.343 | 5.06 | 0.248 | 4.37 | 0.301 | 4.86 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | PHI | 0.249 | 2.42 | 0.345 | 4.91 | 0.257 | 3.7 | 0.333 | 2.96 |
| Chris Archer | TBR | DET | 0.298 | 4.09 | 0.302 | 3.65 | 0.235 | 3.51 | 0.297 | 3.65 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | BAL | 0.126 | 0 | 0.229 | 1.69 | 0.163 | 3.58 | 0.182 | 3.22 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | WAS | 0.322 | 3.73 | 0.242 | 2.42 | 0.222 | 3.98 | 0.263 | 3.62 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | CLE | 1.06 | 0 | 0.365 | 5 | 0.306 | 6.37 | 0.344 | 4.41 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 0.245 | 2.38 | 0.319 | 4.64 | 0.244 | 3.7 | 0.285 | 3.84 |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | SFG | 0.318 | 2.45 | 0.216 | 1.23 | 0.196 | 3.23 | 0.258 | 2.16 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDP | ARI | 0.339 | |||||||
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | COL |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. WAS, $8500) – Teheran has been uncharacteristically wild so far this season, giving away eight free passes across his first three starts and 19.1 innings (3.8 BB/9), though his 15 strikeouts (7.1 K/9) are right in line with his established rates. The pitcher with a K/BB over 4.0 last year is under 2.0 in 2017, but the run prevention has been as strong as ever, with just two earned runs allowed this season for a 0.95 ERA. The next homer that Teheran allows will be his first of the ‘17 campaign, but he is facing a dangerous lineup full of hitters who can take him deep, starting with public enemy no. 1: Bryce Harper has five home runs in 31 career at-bats (36 plate appearances) against Teheran, with a video-game line of .419/.500/1.000 against his division rival.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs, LAA, $9900) – Keuchel has been the toughest pitcher on hits in the early part of this season. He has surrendered just eight hits in 21.0 innings this season, a ridiculous rate that laps the field in terms of the difference between innings pitched and hits allowed this season. Inducing weak contact is Keuchel’s specialty and he adds to that effort by fielding his position exceptionally well, but even given those strengths, the .115 BABiP that he has allowed thus far is so outrageously low that it has no choice but to rise. Expect regression to start pulling his numbers toward the mean (his career BABiP is much closer to league average at .296). The salary reflects his hit suppression thus far in the early season, but expect that strength to peter out quickly.
Rick Porcello BOS (at TOR, $10900) – Porcello has ratcheted up the K-count so far this season, with 18 whiffs in 16.2 innings that puts his career rate of 6.1 K/9 (16.1 percent) to shame. The strikeouts have been the lone bright spot, however, as Porcello has been knocked around to the tune of 25 hits – five of them homers – and a 7.56 ERA through his first three starts. The Jays have been a mess this year, scoring the second-fewest runs in baseball and now having lost top bat Josh Donaldson to the disabled list, and the floundering bats of Toronto might be just the medicine that Porcello needs to get back on track. Last season was an outlier for the right-hander and 2017 has also been out of line with his career track, but the disparate directions of those outlier performances raise the warning flags. I would better about rostering Porcello today if not for the outrageous price tag, which is so high that it will be very difficult for Porcello to turn a profit even if he rights the ship against Toronto.
Vince Velasquez PHI (at NYM, $9400) – There is no doubting the strikeout-related upside. VV has already punched out 17 hitters in 9.0 innings this season, but he’s also coughed up nine runs on ten hits (including three homers) and seven walks (plus one HBP), thwarting his own efforts to pitch deep into ballgames and saddling him with losses against the Nats and Mets. The Mets are primed for round two, which may not last long given that Velasquez required 194 pitches to chew through his first nine innings of work this season. Pitch-count efficiency was his biggest issue last season and the problems seem to have carried over into 2017, and his expected point total suffers greatly due to the expectation that he falls short of 6.0 innings pitched, even on a good day, as he exceeded 18 outs in just three of his 24 starts last season.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. CHW, $9000) – Slowly but surely, Tanaka is crawling out of the much from his first couple starts, but he isn’t out of the woods yet and has given us little reason to trust the right-hander. He has gone successively deeper in each of his three starts, building his pitch count from 67 to 92 and then 103 tosses in his last start, creeping his innings-count up from the 2.2 frames of his Opening Day disaster to the 6.1 innings of his last game. That said, he has still given up at least three earned runs in each of his starts and has posted a weak 13:8 K:BB for the campaign, with three homers allowed and two HBPs in 14.0 innings of work. A full-strength and well-tuned Tanaka is worth $9000 in salary, but the current iteration requires a bit of dreaming before that price tag becomes an attractive target.
Joe Ross WAS (at ATL, $7400)
Robert Gsellman NYM (vs. PHI, $6700)
Jason Vargas KC (vs. SF, $5300)
Trevor Bauer CLE (at MIN, $7200)
Francisco Liriano TOR (vs. BOS, $8000)
Jordan Zimmermann DET (at TB, $6500)
Tyler Anderson COL (at LAD, $7000)
Adalberto Mejia MIN (vs. CLE, $5700)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
J.C. Ramirez LAA (at HOU, $4300)
Dylan Covey CHW (at NYY, $4000)
Jhoulys Chacin SD (vs. ARI, $5500)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at CIN, $5600)