Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 26th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
UPDATE: The Cardinals/Blue Jays game has been postponed for today.
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Davis | CIN | MIL | |||||||||
| Nate Karns | KCR | CHW | 20.00% | ||||||||
| Lance McCullers | HOU | CLE | 105 | 3.26 | 3.37 | 1.46 | 42.86% | 30.2% | 11.3% | 0.77 | 57.4% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | PIT | 226.1 | 2.47 | 3.62 | 1.04 | 71.88% | 24.4% | 6.6% | 0.87 | 47.4% |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | PHI | 208 | 5.32 | 4.67 | 1.56 | 35.29% | 17.1% | 9.2% | 1.13 | 50.2% |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | BAL | 46 | 6.65 | 4.13 | 1.59 | 20.00% | 16.4% | 5.3% | 1.96 | 50.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | NYM | 188.1 | 4.4 | 4.77 | 1.37 | 31.03% | 17.1% | 8.6% | 1.48 | 43.1% |
| James Paxton | SEA | DET | 146.1 | 3.44 | 3.42 | 1.23 | 45.00% | 24.1% | 4.8% | 0.55 | 46.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | BOS | 220.2 | 3.34 | 3.83 | 1.13 | 58.06% | 20.4% | 5.1% | 1.02 | 48.6% |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | TEX | 206.2 | 4.4 | 4.96 | 1.32 | 36.36% | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 34.7% |
| Mat Latos | TOR | STL | 75 | 5.04 | 5.47 | 1.51 | 33.33% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 1.44 | 44.2% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | COL | 234.2 | 2.91 | 4.28 | 1.16 | 54.55% | 19.8% | 8.2% | 0.73 | 48.5% |
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | ARI | 84 | 2.89 | 3.74 | 1.23 | 24.3% | 11.7% | 0.96 | 57.3% | |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | LAA | 167 | 3.93 | 3.96 | 1.18 | 37.50% | 21.8% | 7.1% | 1.13 | 46.5% |
| Alex Wood | LAD | SFG | 74 | 3.65 | 3.54 | 1.26 | 50.00% | 25.4% | 8.6% | 0.73 | 54.0% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | CIN | 148.2 | 4.84 | 4.59 | 1.51 | 30.43% | 16.5% | 8.1% | 1.27 | 48.9% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | KCR | 231.1 | 3.5 | 4.08 | 1.2 | 62.50% | 21.4% | 6.6% | 1.05 | 40.2% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | HOU | 207 | 4.43 | 4.15 | 1.31 | 32.14% | 21.3% | 8.5% | 1.00 | 47.4% |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | CHC | 34.2 | 5.45 | 4.54 | 1.76 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 0.78 | 48.1% | |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | TBR | 136 | 3.51 | 4.13 | 1.3 | 21.43% | 21.7% | 8.0% | 1.19 | 35.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | ATL | 209.2 | 2.49 | 2.83 | 1.12 | 60.00% | 29.3% | 5.1% | 0.47 | 52.0% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | SEA | 86.1 | 3.44 | 4.19 | 1.42 | 23.08% | 21.6% | 8.2% | 1.04 | 39.2% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | NYY | 246.2 | 3.36 | 3.76 | 1.06 | 45.45% | 21.2% | 3.7% | 1.02 | 43.3% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | MIN | 226.2 | 3.26 | 4.08 | 1.28 | 56.25% | 22.5% | 9.0% | 1.07 | 49.4% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | TOR | 218 | 3.22 | 3.9 | 1.25 | 51.61% | 22.5% | 8.9% | 0.74 | 55.4% |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | WAS | 184.1 | 3.91 | 4.54 | 1.35 | 44.44% | 17.5% | 10.1% | 0.98 | 56.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | SDP | 156 | 4.27 | 4.06 | 1.26 | 36.00% | 21.0% | 6.6% | 1.67 | 43.9% |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | OAK | 181.2 | 4.01 | 3.91 | 1.22 | 51.85% | 21.4% | 5.2% | 1.19 | 40.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | LAD | 243.2 | 3.03 | 3.67 | 1.12 | 62.50% | 22.0% | 5.4% | 0.74 | 49.0% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
UPDATE: Syndergaard’s next start has been pushed to Thursday.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. ATL, $12600) – Yesterday’s game between the Mets and Braves was rained out, one of three games to be washed away, and the Mets took that opportunity to skip Robert Gsellman in the rotation and loop back around to the top. Thor has somehow raised his game yet another level this season, with a 1.73 ERA and an incredible 30:0 K:BB in 26.0 innings. He’s given up enough unearned runs to nearly double his ERA if put on the scale of RA/9, but the counts of Ks versus walks has ascended to Kershaw’s level. His last start was the toughest of 2017 in terms of run prevention, with five runs allowed (three earned) over 7.0 frames, but he still managed 24.95 points on DraftKings thanks to a season-high 10 strikeouts against the Phillies. He also blanked the Braves through six frames in his first start of the year, laying the groundwork for a dominant outing in tonight’s contest.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
James Paxton SEA (at DET, $8200) – Paxton is enjoying a performance breakout this season, one which may have been highly anticipated by season-long fantasy managers based on the preseason hype, as his combination of high-90s velocity with a more repeatable delivery has rewarded optimism with excellent results thus far this season. His first three starts were pure gold, kicking off the season with 21.0 scoreless innings, including a 22:4 K:BB and a paltry total of eight hits allowed. Things fell apart a bit in his last start, as Paxton coughed up five runs over 4.1 innings against the A’s, though he still amassed eight strikeouts against one walk in the truncated outing. Detroit is coming off a 19-run bludgeoning of King Felix and the Seattle bullpen, despite playing without Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez, and the biggest threat to Paxton’s stat line is that the hot bats of the Tigers will still be on fire.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. TOR, $8900) – Martinez has had a rough ride through April, with a 4.76 ERA and 4.4 BB/9 through his first four starts, but a league-leading strikeout rate of 12.3 K/9 has kept him on the good side of his owners. He has pitched 5.0-5.1 innings in each of his last three starts, two of which involved five earned runs allowed. However, the bloated walks total is a bit misleading, as the issues were confined to just a single ballgame in which CarMart allowed an eye-popping eight free passes against the Yankees; in his other three starts, the right-hander has allowed just three walks combined. He has hit double-digit strikeouts twice this season and the injury-depleted Blue Jays open the window for a third.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. MIN, $9300) – The peripherals aren’t pretty, as Hamels has a weak 14:9 K:BB in 26.0 innings this season, but he has danced between the raindrops to the tune of a 2.77 ERA and three quality starts in four turns. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts, but he has yet to tally more than five strikeouts in any of them, either. Plus, Hamels has plunked exactly one batter in all four of his turns. The Raise ranking includes some optimism that he can rediscover the old strikeout totals against Minnesota.
Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. TB, $7800) – The Rays have scored a bushel of runs in the early going, but Bundy has already silenced the rival Red Sox and Tampa Bay is widely viewed as having an inferior offense to Boston. The Rays lead the majors in strikeouts, paving the way for Bundy to have a big night in terms of fantasy points, and DraftKings continues to undervalue the former phenom, whose addition of a slider to his repertoire has given him a new weapon that Bundy often deploys in strikeout situations. The cost plays a big role in this lofty ranking, but Bundy might earn Raise status at a price $1000 higher.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Davis | CIN | MIL | ||||||||
| Nate Karns | KCR | CHW | ||||||||
| Lance McCullers | HOU | CLE | 0.324 | 3.17 | 0.319 | 3.34 | 0.255 | 3.37 | 0.366 | 3.11 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | PIT | 0.235 | 2.22 | 0.277 | 2.54 | 0.214 | 3.62 | 0.264 | 3.33 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | PHI | 0.351 | 5.38 | 0.339 | 5.26 | 0.282 | 4.67 | 0.322 | 4.55 |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | BAL | 0.486 | 9.87 | 0.31 | 4.71 | 0.316 | 4.13 | 0.342 | 5.09 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | NYM | 0.331 | 4.25 | 0.341 | 4.5 | 0.256 | 4.77 | 0.278 | 5.01 |
| James Paxton | SEA | DET | 0.289 | 1.9 | 0.29 | 3.74 | 0.261 | 3.42 | 0.336 | 2.51 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | BOS | 0.291 | 3.12 | 0.288 | 3.55 | 0.239 | 3.83 | 0.278 | 3.62 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | TEX | 0.329 | 4.08 | 0.323 | 4.47 | 0.238 | 4.96 | 0.258 | 5.08 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | STL | 0.32 | 4.7 | 0.366 | 5.4 | 0.268 | 5.47 | 0.279 | 5.46 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | COL | 0.286 | 2.39 | 0.275 | 3.37 | 0.225 | 4.28 | 0.267 | 3.75 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | ARI | 0.268 | 2.23 | 0.278 | 3.4 | 0.197 | 3.74 | 0.243 | 4.13 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | LAA | 0.233 | 2.67 | 0.316 | 4.25 | 0.234 | 3.96 | 0.275 | 3.98 |
| Alex Wood | LAD | SFG | 0.305 | 6.98 | 0.276 | 2.47 | 0.232 | 3.54 | 0.302 | 3.21 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | CIN | 0.368 | 4.33 | 0.354 | 5.31 | 0.294 | 4.59 | 0.33 | 4.65 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | KCR | 0.287 | 3.16 | 0.313 | 3.6 | 0.247 | 4.08 | 0.293 | 3.77 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | HOU | 0.304 | 4.15 | 0.32 | 4.7 | 0.246 | 4.15 | 0.295 | 3.97 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | CHC | 0.363 | 4.5 | 0.361 | 6.1 | 0.273 | 4.54 | 0.35 | 4.31 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | TBR | 0.311 | 3.47 | 0.315 | 3.55 | 0.252 | 4.13 | 0.299 | 4.15 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | ATL | 0.297 | 2.91 | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.238 | 2.83 | 0.332 | 2.09 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | SEA | 0.304 | 4.98 | 0.331 | 2.92 | 0.264 | 4.19 | 0.32 | 3.78 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | NYY | 0.27 | 2.91 | 0.295 | 3.83 | 0.236 | 3.76 | 0.276 | 3.49 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | MIN | 0.257 | 2.76 | 0.316 | 3.38 | 0.238 | 4.08 | 0.287 | 4.08 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | TOR | 0.328 | 3.95 | 0.25 | 2.45 | 0.234 | 3.9 | 0.292 | 3.61 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | WAS | 0.32 | 4.26 | 0.314 | 3.53 | 0.246 | 4.54 | 0.28 | 4.41 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | SDP | 0.31 | 4.52 | 0.342 | 4 | 0.246 | 4.06 | 0.275 | 4.74 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | OAK | 0.309 | 4.38 | 0.32 | 3.58 | 0.258 | 0.303 | 3.85 | |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | LAD | 2.43 | 0.272 | 3.54 | 0.238 | 0.291 | 3.17 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jon Lester CHC (at PIT, $11600) – Lester might be the second-best pitcher on the list, but his lofty salary is a deterrent. The southpaw has been solid this season, with a 2.66 ERA and 21:7 K:BB in 23.2 innings, with a hit per inning and just one homer allowed through four starts. He pitched a gem against these Pirates two starts ago, with seven scoreless frames but just three strikeouts, but Lester is also coming off his worst start of the season, having allowed nine hits and five runs to the Reds in 5.2 innings of work. The price tag indicates the expectation that he’ll get back on track against Pittsburgh in today’s game, but given that his season-game high is a modest 22.5 points on DraftKings this season, Lester will have a very difficult time turning a profit on the $11600 price tag, thus knocking him down into Call territory.
Johnny Cueto SF (vs. LAD, $11100) – Cueto is in the same boat as Lester – a great pitcher whose price tag is too high, thus creating a barrier to his profit margin. Unlike Lester, however, Cueto’s stat line indicates struggles in the early going of 2017, including a 5.25 ERA and a 19:8 K:BB in 24.0 innings that fails to inspire optimism. Cueto can be forgiven for the worst of his transgressions, as the right-hander is coming off a six-run start against the Rockies over 5.0 innings in the thin air of Colorado, but even his best start of the year was only worth 24.35 points on DK, underscoring the difficulty imposed by his expensive price tag.
Julio Teheran ATL (at NYM. $8600) – Teheran’s game was rained out yesterday, and though he’s facing the same opponent, somehow his price tag fell by $1400, making him a better value despite nothing having changed. Here’s what I said in yesterday’s Breakdown: Everything was coming up aces for Teheran through his first three starts, with a 0.95 ERA despite sketchy underlying stats, including a 15:8 K:BB through his first 19.0 frames. Then he faced the juggernaut offense of the Nats, who scored 7 runs off Teheran in 4.0 innings of work, with three strikeouts, three walks and seven hits allowed (including two homers). His performance so far represents both ends of the spectrum, but the peripherals have been consistently mundane, and though high K-counts are not part of Teheran’s profile, the spike in walks is undermining the control artist’s skill set.
Sean Manaea OAK (at LAA, $7600) – Manaea is tied with Hamels for the MLB lead with four HBPs on the young season, a total that matches his plunk-count of 2016 but in 122.1 fewer innings, and his walk rate has more than doubled when compared to last season, from 6.2 percent to the 2017 mark of 12.6 percent. However, his overall stat line has been spared by a 6.5-point spike in K-rate (currently 27.4 percent) and just one home run allowed through 22.1 innings. His first two starts were a bit of a struggle, as Manaea surrendered 10 runs (nine earned) through 11.1 frames, but he has righted the ship with just three runs allowed (two earned) over 11.0 innings of his last two starts, though a lack of pitch-count efficiency has limited the lefty to 15-18 outs despite throwing more than 95 pitches in each outing. The last start was worth a season-high 22.7 points on DK, a solid total that underscores his profit potential tonight against the Angels.
Vince Velasquez PHI (vs. MIA, $8900) – Velasquez watched his price drop $400 on DraftKings after rain postponed yesterday’s game, likely due to a deeper pitcher pool. Here’s what I said about him in yesterday’s article: Well, the strikeouts are still there (19 Ks in 15.0 innings), but VV has allowed a storm of hits (including four homers) and walks to compile a 7.20 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through his first three starts. He compiled his big stats in fits and bursts last year but we haven’t seen any single-game performance spikes yet this season. That said, the profile is perfect for large tournaments, where the payout is all about catching lightning in a bottle; just don’t trust him in a cash game lineup.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. NYY, $9300) – Yesterday’s game was rained out, so they’ll make it up today. Here’s what I said about Porcello in yesterday’s column: Porcello is coming off his best start of the year, going seven innings while allowing three runs to the Blue Jays, though all of those runs were unearned. Then again, it was also a Donaldson-less ballclub that has been a bottom-five offense this season. Even with the earnie-less ballgame, Porcello has been hit for a 5.32 ERA this season, as the previous outing saw eight runs (all earned) cross the plate in 4.1 innings against the Rays. He’s still not walking anyone, but the egregious hit totals are back and too many of those hits have left the yard (5 HR in 23.2 IP).
Luis Severino NYY (at BOS, $7600)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. OAK, $7500)
Hector Santiago MIN (at TEX, $5500)
Tyler Glasnow PIT (vs. CHC, $6300)
Trevor Cahill SD (at ARI, $4200)
Alex Wood LAD (at SF, $7400)
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at PHI, $7100)
Alex Cobb TB (at BAL, $6400)
Daniel Norris DET (vs. SEA, $6900)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mat Latos TOR (at STL, $5600)
Tanner Roark WAS (at COL, $6000)
Tyler Chatwood COL (vs. WAS, $5400)