Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 24th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2017-05-24 18:29:23

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	Team	Opp	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%
Jose Berrios	MIN	BAL	73.2	6.48	4.96	1.56		19.1%	11.0%	1.47	38.0%
Marcus Stroman	TOR	MIL	261	4.07	3.6	1.31	43.75%	19.4%	6.3%	0.86	60.4%
Edinson Volquez	MIA	OAK	230	5.28	4.76	1.57	35.29%	17.4%	9.9%	1.10	50.0%
Jose Quintana	CHW	ARI	265.1	3.36	4.09	1.18	62.50%	21.8%	6.9%	0.95	39.9%
Lisalverto Bonilla	CIN	CLE	18.1	6.38	4.82	1.36		17.5%	10.0%	1.96	40.4%
Jason Hammel	KCR	NYY	207.1	4.3	4.44	1.31	53.33%	19.8%	7.9%	1.35	40.6%
Sam Gaviglio	SEA	WAS	7	1.29	3.54	0.86		21.4%	3.6%	1.29	40.0%
Tyler Chatwood	COL	PHI	211	4.18	4.63	1.38	44.44%	17.8%	10.9%	1.02	56.9%
Martin Perez	TEX	BOS	249.2	4.25	5.07	1.45	48.48%	12.9%	9.0%	0.79	51.3%
Ricky Nolasco	LAA	TBR	249.1	4.33	4.35	1.25	37.50%	18.3%	5.6%	1.41	41.8%
Jarred Cosart	SDP	NYM	70.1	5.37	5.4	1.71	7.69%	13.9%	14.2%	0.51	60.0%
Trevor Williams	PIT	ATL	38	6.63	4.83	1.63		15.4%	9.1%	2.13	45.0%
Matt Moore	SFG	CHC	250.1	4.35	4.45	1.34	45.45%	20.8%	8.7%	1.19	37.9%
Daniel Norris	DET	HOU	112.1	3.93	4.25	1.52	23.08%	21.8%	8.5%	1.12	39.6%
Mike Leake	STL	LAD	230	4.07	3.91	1.24	40.00%	16.7%	4.1%	0.94	53.7%
Chris Tillman	BAL	MIN	187.1	3.75	4.63	1.3	46.67%	19.4%	9.3%	0.91	41.3%
Matt Garza	MIL	TOR	131.1	4.04	4.51	1.42	26.32%	15.9%	7.3%	0.96	52.8%
Sonny Gray	OAK	MIA	139.2	5.41	4.29	1.45	27.27%	18.1%	8.0%	1.42	54.3%
Randall Delgado	ARI	CHW	101.2	4.34	4.11	1.42		20.4%	9.1%	1.06	42.9%
Trevor Bauer	CLE	CIN	234.2	4.72	4.1	1.34	32.14%	22.0%	8.6%	1.15	47.4%
Luis Severino	NYY	KCR	118	4.96	3.7	1.32	9.09%	23.8%	7.5%	1.37	47.5%
Tanner Roark	WAS	SEA	261.1	3.2	4.37	1.21	54.55%	19.9%	8.8%	0.79	48.2%
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	COL	238.2	3.66	4.4	1.13	40.63%	17.9%	5.5%	1.24	39.2%
Chris Sale	BOS	TEX	292.1	3.08	3.14	0.98	53.13%	28.5%	5.0%	0.95	40.6%
Erasmo Ramirez	TBR	LAA	120.2	3.58	3.93	1.19		17.6%	6.3%	1.27	53.1%
Robert Gsellman	NYM	SDP	83.1	4.43	3.96	1.49	42.86%	19.5%	7.8%	0.65	55.7%
Julio Teheran	ATL	PIT	237.1	3.68	4.21	1.15	50.00%	20.8%	6.5%	1.14	37.5%
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	SFG	235.2	2.37	3.82	1.03	63.33%	22.3%	6.7%	0.80	49.1%
Charlie Morton	HOU	DET	68	4.24	3.6	1.4	50.00%	26.3%	9.4%	1.06	52.2%
Rich Hill	LAD	STL	123.1	2.19	3.37	1.04	63.16%	28.9%	7.7%	0.51	44.8%

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Chris Sale BOS (vs. TEX, $13500) – Sale has entered Kershaw territory, in which the salary generator at DraftKings seems to have hit a ceiling and yet Sale finds a way to profit off of nearly every start, making him a regular bargain despite being the most expensive pitcher on the board by a wide margin. The string of games with double-digit strikeouts has now reached eight in a row, matching his own record-breaking streak of consecutive games with 10 or more strikeouts. He’s the perfect DFS pitcher right now, going deep into ballgames (7.0 or more innings in eight of nine starts, over 100 pitches in every start), keeping the scoreboard clean (eight quality starts) and piling up the K-counts. His overall numbers have taken on a video game quality, including 95 strikeouts in 65.2 innings with just 39 hits allowed and 13 walks surrendered. Like Kershaw, Sale will be very heavily owned today, and like Kershaw, he will be worth every virtual dollar spent on his hefty salary.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Rich Hill LAD (vs. STL, $8900) – The Dodgers limited Hill to just 82 pitches in his first start back from the DL, but that was enough for Hill to coast through five full frames of one-run baseball, recording six strikeouts, zero walks and one hit batsman. It helped that he was facing a soft San Francisco lineup in the pitcher-friendly confines of ATT Park, but it was an encouraging sign for a vulnerable pitcher whose leash will likely be lengthened in tonight’s game. He’s a six-inning starter even at full strength, as Hill pitched into the seventh inning in just four of his 20 starts last season. The Dodgers have also been lighter on his per-game workloads since Hill arrived from Oakland – he threw 99 or more pitches in 11 of his final 13 games in the green n’ gold, but he has maxed out at 93 pitches in any start with the Dodgers and has surpassed 89 pitches in just one of his nine turns. What keeps him ranked so high is the very reasonable price tag and the lack of viable alternatives on tonight’s slate.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. SF, $8500) – Hendricks is back preventing run at an impressive rate, forging a 3.35 ERA through eight starts this season, but all of his peripherals have taken a major step backward when compared to last season, and his 4.32 FIP suggests that he might be gaining back some of those earned runs if he doesn’t step up his game in a hurry. He posted K rates above 8.0 K/9 and walk rates of 2.2 BB/9 or lower over the last two seasons, but those frequencies have come closer together in 2017 with just 7.5 K/9 and a massive spike to 3.5 BB/9. The home run rate has jumped as well, swelling from the 0.7-to-0.9 HR/9 of the past two seasons to this year’s 1.2 HR/9, and his hit rate – while still low at 7.3 H/9 – has still regressed back from last season’s unsustainable 6.7 H/9, a predictable move given that the historic Cubs defense of 2016 was bound to take a step backward this season. All of these details point in the wrong direction, but the weak-hitting Giants are likely to be very forgiving with such transgressions. Kendricks has also come alive recently: after giving up three or more earned runs in each of his first three turns, Hendricks has compiled a 1.82 ERA over his last five contests, keeping the opposition at two runs or fewer in each outing.

Charlie Morton HOU (vs. DET, $8600) – Morton’s gigantic leap in velocity has been grabbing all the headlines, and deservedly so, given that he jumped nearly 5 mph in two years and has seen his strikeout rate swell along with his radar gun readings this season. That fact alone might make it a bit of a head-scratcher that Morton’s 4.26 ERA is right in line with the mediocre performances of the past and that his 1.42 WHIP is the right-hander’s worst mark in five years. It gets a bit easier to explain if dig a bit deeper, as Morton’s pitches have lost movement across the board, a likely result of the faster pitch speeds, and his vertical movement in particular has greatly suffered. Opposing batters might have less time to read and react to the incoming pitch, but it’s flight path is more predictable and they have been hitting the ball hard when they get around and make contact on the newfound heat. The strikeouts will likely buffer his DFS score, but the imposing lineup of the Tigers could put up some crooked numbers early and hasten Morton’s exit.

Luis Severino NYY (vs. KC, $9900) – I don’t love the price tag, but Severino brings a blend of strikeout-related upside and a weak-swinging opponent that is rare among today’s cohort of non Sale-priced pitchers. Like each of the four pitchers above him, Severino has the home-field advantage in tonight’s contest, playing against a Kansas City team that has the worst record in the American League, has scored the fewest runs in the majors and which is just 7-17 on the road this season. He’s run an excellent 54:13 K:BB in 47.0 innings this season, and though his susceptibility to home runs is still intact (seven homers allowed, 1.3 HR/9, Severino’s overall profile of defense-independent metrics balance out near his actual performance, with a 3.64 ERA and a 3.56 FIP.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	Team	Opp	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	SIERA	BABIP	FIP
Jose Berrios	MIN	BAL	0.333	6.08	0.39	6.95	0.269	4.96	0.308	5.34
Marcus Stroman	TOR	MIL	0.317	4.51	0.31	3.63	0.268	3.6	0.318	3.59
Edinson Volquez	MIA	OAK	0.353	5.31	0.339	5.25	0.28	4.76	0.322	4.6
Jose Quintana	CHW	ARI	0.271	3.02	0.306	3.46	0.241	4.09	0.288	3.62
Lisalverto Bonilla	CIN	CLE	0.403	7.71	0.314	5	0.243	4.82	0.25	5.98
Jason Hammel	KCR	NYY	0.335	3.95	0.319	4.58	0.252	4.44	0.286	4.57
Sam Gaviglio	SEA	WAS	0.264	2.7	0.329	0	0.192	3.54	0.211	4.03
Tyler Chatwood	COL	PHI	0.339	4.78	0.307	3.56	0.247	4.63	0.282	4.55
Martin Perez	TEX	BOS	0.278	2.47	0.336	4.67	0.27	5.07	0.296	4.37
Ricky Nolasco	LAA	TBR	0.307	3.32	0.336	5.22	0.261	4.35	0.289	4.4
Jarred Cosart	SDP	NYM	0.317	6.55	0.345	4.25	0.268	5.4	0.308	4.67
Trevor Williams	PIT	ATL	0.378	8.31	0.37	5.23	0.289	4.83	0.301	5.99
Matt Moore	SFG	CHC	0.332	5.5	0.313	4.02	0.249	4.45	0.292	4.27
Daniel Norris	DET	HOU	0.321	5.46	0.347	3.42	0.279	4.25	0.34	3.97
Mike Leake	STL	LAD	0.311	4.12	0.308	4.02	0.267	3.91	0.302	3.68
Chris Tillman	BAL	MIN	0.316	4.06	0.316	3.5	0.243	4.63	0.286	4.13
Matt Garza	MIL	TOR	0.357	4.9	0.298	3.31	0.27	4.51	0.304	4.13
Sonny Gray	OAK	MIA	0.323	5.22	0.36	5.6	0.275	4.29	0.308	4.68
Randall Delgado	ARI	CHW	0.361	5.18	0.297	3.75	0.253	4.11	0.3	4.11
Trevor Bauer	CLE	CIN	0.317	5	0.325	4.45	0.251	4.1	0.301	4.12
Luis Severino	NYY	KCR	0.301	4.5	0.346	5.4	0.255	3.7	0.308	4.12
Tanner Roark	WAS	SEA	0.298	2.88	0.276	3.49	0.229	4.37	0.272	3.88
Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	COL	0.311	3.45	0.296	3.83	0.236	4.4	0.259	4.25
Chris Sale	BOS	TEX	0.262	3.38	0.268	3.03	0.213	3.14	0.276	3.05
Erasmo Ramirez	TBR	LAA	0.355	4.43	0.282	3.12	0.246	3.93	0.27	4.39
Robert Gsellman	NYM	SDP	0.289	2.45	0.36	5.98	0.283	3.96	0.345	3.53
Julio Teheran	ATL	PIT	0.344	5.03	0.248	2.56	0.232	4.21	0.268	4.02
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	SFG	0.271	1.88	0.256	2.73	0.209	3.82	0.251	3.42
Charlie Morton	HOU	DET	0.313	2.48	0.35	5.86	0.255		0.333	3.8
Rich Hill	LAD	STL		1.95	0.255	2.26	0.202		0.28	2.71

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Mike Leake STL (at LAD, $8100) – Leake has spun eight consecutive quality starts to begin the season, and every turn has been of better quality than the baseline of three earnies over six frames. He has given up two or fewer runs in seven of those eight turns, and the one time he gave up three Leake also went 7.0 innings. He just got through a set of playing the Cubs and Red Sox with just four total runs allowed over 13.0 innings (2.77 ERA). The ceiling is limited by a pedestrian K-rate, and the fact that Leake hasn’t struck out more than seven batters or gone deeper than 7.0 innings in any game this season. This is a high-floor player rather than one with a high ceiling, but he makes for an interesting complement to someone like Chris Sale in cash games on DraftKings.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. PIT, $8200) – You’re forgiven for avoiding Teheran with a 40-foot pole. After starting the year on fire, he has been brutal since late April, having given up six or more earned runs in three of his last six starts. The latest blowup was the most damaging of all, as he gave up a whopping nine runs (all earned) on eight hits (including three home runs), a walk and a hit-by-pitch over just 3.0 innings against the Blue Jays. The Josh Donaldson-less, Troy Tulowitzki-less Blue Jays. The Pirates might be even thinner than the Jays these days, given the absence of Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco from the lineup, and with just the skeleton of Andrew McCutchen left to patrol the outfield. It doesn’t matter – avoid in all formats, save for the random zig lineup in a large tournament.

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. SEA, $7800) – Roark has given up multiple runs in all nine of his starts this season, and the month of May has been particularly harsh, with a 6.23 ERA over four starts, the worst of which was his last outing: seven earned runs on eight hits (two home runs) and four walks, with just three strikeouts over 5.0 innings. And there’s the rub with Roark: we know the strikeouts will be low, so he needs to limit the walks and the damage on contact in order to be successful. With a career-high walk rate of 3.7 BB/9 along with predictable regression to his rates of hits and homers allowed, in addition to a 7.4 K/9 that is an exact match for last season, and Roark owners are feeling the pain of walking on a razor’s edge.

Matt Moore SF (at CHC, $7600) – There’s a steep cliff of talent as we head down the call list, and it can be a slippery slope as we slide deeper into the player pool. The Cubs haven’t been as dominant as last season, but the pieces are still there to hang an albatross run total on an imposing pitcher’s ERA, and Moore is next on the target list. He’s been maddening for DFS owners this season, littering disaster starts with solid performances, the culmination of which is a poor 5.37 ERA and 45:21 K:BB in 52.0 innings. He has nine total starts this season, four of which saw him surrender five or more runs, while three of them involved just a single run. He has given up a ton of hits, so stacking Cubbies isn’t worst idea. Moore went as deep as 120 pitches in a game two starts ago, but the Giants took their foot off the gas pedal in his following start with just an 84-pitch outing (despite a solid performance), but his pitch counts have been all over the map this season so it’s tough to say how long his leash is in tonight’s game.

Erasmo Ramirez TB (vs. LAA, $5600) – The Eraser probably won’t go deep, but he won’t need to in order to recoup his $5600 cost, and he might last long enough to be in position for a W.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. COL, $7100)

Ricky Nolasco LAA (at TB, $7700)

Tyler Chatwood COL (at PHI, $6900)

Robert Gsellman NYM (vs. SD, $6200)

Daniel Norris DET (at HOU, $6400)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Trevor Williams PIT (at ATL, $4800)

Jarred Cosart SD (at NYM, $4700)

Martin Perez TEX (at BOS, $6000)

Jason Hammel KC (at NYY, $6600)

Sam Gaviglio SEA (at WAS, $4900)