MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, May 27
Taylor Sith previews the Saturday, May 27th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got baseball games everywhere you look on this Saturday, and DraftKings and FanDuel have vastly different slates. DK’s main slate is a 5-gamer that gets underway at 7:15 ET. FanDuel, meanwhile, is rolling with a completely different 7-gamer that starts at 4:05 ET. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ . Needless to say, we’ll have vastly different MLB DFS picks for each site this afternoon/evening. Luckily, we’re here to break it all down.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Luckily, we don’t have a single weather concern anywhere on either slate. TEX/BAL has some breezy winds blowing in from right, which only concerns the FD slate.
- MIA/LAA has some winds blowing out to center, as was the case yesterday. PHI/ATL and NYM/COL have lighter winds that shouldn’t have too much impact on the proceedings.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Tyler Glasnow will make his highly-anticipated return to a MLB mound tonight at home against the Dodgers. He was outstanding in his minor-league rehab outings, though he threw just 67 pitches in his last start. He’s been dealing with an oblique injury, and we know the Rays are stingy with pitch counts to begin with. Glasnow surely won’t have a full workload in his season debut today.
- The A’s have a guy named Hogan Harris projected to start their game tonight against the Astros. Harris somehow allowed 6 earned runs on just 1 hit in 0.1 innings in his lone major-league appearance of the season earlier this year against the Mets. He issued 5 walks and didn’t strike anyone out. Not bad! This is a bullpen game for Oakland, but it’s worth noting their bullpen is very easily the worst in MLB. Despite the pitcher-friendly ballpark, the Houston stack looks terrific today on FD.
- Thairo Estrada missed last night’s game with a sore wrist, and he’s questionable to suit up tonight against Corbin Burnes in Milwaukee. Estrada isn’t expected to need an IL stint, so he could return tonight. We have him tentatively projected to return to the lineup tonight.
- Willy Adames will head to the 7-day concussion IL after leaving last night’s game early. Brice Turang should take over as the starting shortstop for as long as Adames is out of the mix. Darin Ruf led off for the Brew Crew last night against Alex Wood, but Christian Yelich will likely get the nod tonight against righty Logan Webb.
- The Rangers are expected to decide today whether Ezequiel Duran needs an IL trip for his injured rib. Hawks legend Josh Smith has been starting in his place over the past few games.
- Matt Duffy has been leading off for the Royals over the past few games, but we have Nick Pratto projected to assume the role tonight against right-hander Josiah Gray. Freddy Fermin will also likely head back to the bench and clear the way for Salvador Perez to resume his starting catching duties.
- Sean Murphy got Friday night off, but he’s projected to catch and hit clean-up tonight for the Braves against Zack Wheeler. Marcell Ozuna – who seems to hit a dong every single day – is projected to hit 5th after earning a promotion to a higher lineup spot in last night’s game.
- Noted defector Zach Davies will return to the DBax’ rotation tonight against the Red Sox. Davies has been out since April with an oblique injury. Gabriel Moreno had to undergo a root canal, though he’s expected to return to the lineup at some point this weekend.
- Garrett Whitlock will start for Boston on the other side of the same game. He’s been out for over a month with ulnar neuritis in his pitching elbow, which sounds like an injury you don’t want if you’re a pitcher. Whitlock was hit-or-miss in his 3 starts back in April. Rafael Devers should return to the BoSox’ lineup here after getting the night off last night.
- Brenton Doyle was carted off the field with a knee injury in Thursday’s game, and he didn’t appear in last night’s contest. He’s officially day-to-day. Nolan Jones is currently projected to draw another start in his spot.
- Wil Myers went on the IL yesterday with kidney stones. Brutal stuff, for sure. Will Benson was recalled from the minors in his place, though Stuart Fairchild has logged most of the playing time with Myers out of late.
- The aforementioned Astros stand out as a stellar stack on FanDuel, while the Royals look like a nice value stack against the homer-prone Gray. We’ve got Coors on the DK main slate, so the Mets are a very obvious top stack over there against sacrificial lamb Chase Anderson. New York’s 6.45 total is easily the highest on the board, as none of the other 9 teams on the DK slate are even projected to crack 5 runs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- FanDuel’s slate is a little richer on the pitching side. Framber Valdez will make his second straight start against the A’s after he twirled a complete game shutout against them in H-Town last weekend. He’s pricey at $11,600, but it’s hard to imagine him putting up anything other than another high score. Luis Castillo ($10,800) is a little cheaper in a nice matchup of his own at home against the Pirates. Something tells me Pittsburgh won’t hit another 7 home runs in this game, but you never know. These two pitchers should split most of the ownership on FD.
- Logan Webb ($11,000) is really just a leftover in a tougher matchup at Milwaukee. There are some whiffs in the Brewers’ lineup, but the salary is prohibitive. Corbin Burnes has been awful this season, so I’m really not all that interested in taking the discount here ($9,600) at home against the Giants. Charlie Morton ($9,800) and Zack Wheeler ($9,500) are both in risky matchups in the same game, while I’ll pass on a limited version of Tyler Glasnow ($9,100) at home against the mighty Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw ($10,600) gets a brutal matchup on the other side of that game, while Andrew Heaney ($9,400) will have to deal with a lefty-mashin’ Orioles offense. There are tons of excellent pitchers on this slate, but anyone other than Valdez or Castillo feels like getting a little too cute.
- Oakland’s bullpen has a collective 6.43 ERA on the season, which is over a full run higher than any other bullpen in the sport. The Astros should tee off against these guys today, even if this offense has been fairly underwhelming for much of the season. Given the salaries, it’s awfully easy to stack Alex Bregman ($3,000), Kyle Tucker ($3,300), and Jose Altuve ($3,200) along with one of the expensive pitchers. Yordan Alvarez ($4,500) is the only pricey hitter here, but he’s also the top bat on the board today.
- KC went off last night, and Bobby Witt ($3,300) is still the most expensive hitter in this stack. Josiah Gray has improved so far this season, but he has a history of yielding power to LHBs. He’s projected to face 7 of them in the Royals lineup today, which makes this an appealing value stack to target. Nick Pratto ($2,900), MJ Melendez ($2,800), and Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,100) are the core pieces alongside Witt and Salvador Perez ($3,200).
- With so much good pitching on the FD slate, it’s hard to find many other offenses that stand out. The Nationals could draw some ownership by default against Brady Singer, but this is also a groundball pitcher facing a groundball-heavy lineup. Seattle vs. Vince Velasquez and Texas vs. Dean Kremer look like solid secondary stacks to consider here. The Rangers have been absolutely raking all year, and the RHBs stand out against Kremer’s reverse splits. The salaries are an issue, however, as 5 hitters in this lineup are at $3,400 or higher.
- There is a grand total of one (1) pitcher we’ll feel good about rostering on the DK slate, and that’s Shohei Ohtani ($11,400). He’s been allowing tons of power of late, but he’s easily the best pitcher on the board in a home date against the Marlins. He won’t come cheap, but this is really a don’t overthink it situation given the lackluster alternatives at the position.
- The DK slate is a Coors slate, so the Mets should be heavy chalk on a limited 5-gamer. Chase Anderson has inexplicably fared well over the past couple of games against the Reds and Marlins, but that was the Reds and Marlins. Anderson’s long track record of reverse splits puts the RHBs at the top of the list, starting with Pete Alonso. Francisco Alvarez (.308 ISO) has also raked right-handed pitching this season. Most of the other good Mets (Lindor, Nimmo, Baty, McNeil) are lefties, but I’m not at all concerned with splits here. The huge ownership on the Ohtani/Mets combo is the only real concern here.
- After his 0-fer on Friday, I think Alonso will bounce back in a big way tonight against Anderson. I like taking higher than 10.5 fantasy points for Pete on Underdog today. If you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Any stack other than the Mets should be different enough on this slate. The Rockies are projected for 4.55 runs on the other side of this game, but they’ll have to deal with Justin Verlander. The Colorado stack also won’t come cheap, which should help to limit their ownership. JV’s long had reverse splits, which makes Kris Bryant, Elias Diaz, and Randal Grichuk the headliners in any Rockies stack.
- The Cubs have a sizable 4.84 total at home against lefty Brandon Williamson. He’s been respectable through a couple of starts, but he’s due for regression. Between Christopher Morel, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Patrick Wisdom, and Trey Mancini, the Cubs do have a nice collection of right-handed power bats to throw his way. The Cubs may well be my second-favorite stack on the board thanks to the matchup.
- Both sides of the BOS/AZ game are attackable. Davies and Whitlock have both been on the IL for over a month, and neither is a great pitcher to begin with. I’m more inclined to attack the low strikeouts of Davies, though all of Devers, Yoshida, and Verdugo are north of $5,000 on DK. You can find better value on the Arizona side of things, where Jake McCarthy, Pavin Smith, and Gabriel Moreno are all south of $3,000.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!