MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/3/2022
We have a big 12-game slate to end the week with great weather across the country and plenty of great pitchers and offenses to choose from.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
There is zero rain to worry about today and the only wind above 5mph will be in BOS/OAK ~7mph out to center and in ATL/COL ~9mph out to left.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for HOU/KCR are +12% while total runs for ATL/COL are +12.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
George Springer is back at leadoff today while Chapman and Kirk are getting days off while Josh Donaldson has been activated off the IL hitting cleanup today and has a nice price on FD at just $3,000 while Stanton remains out but is getting closer to a return and Gleyber Torres is getting breather today. Yoan Moncada said he expects to play today so look for him to be in there at 3B or DH and with the lefty going for TB we should see AJ Pollock hit leadoff again with Anderson on the IL. With Segura out indefinitely with a broken finger look for Johan Camargo and Nick Maton to cover the 2B spot and Rhys Hoskins should move back to the 2-hole where Segura was hitting before his injury. Omar Narvaez just landed on the covid-IL so Victor Caratini or newly added Alex Jackson will start at C against the righty Musgrove and we could see Nomar Mazara draw another start against a righty but I’m not touching him with his pinch-hit risk when a lefty comes in along with the tough matchup with Burnes to start. Lastly Francisco Lindor hurt his finger in a door yesterday and had to sit out but there is optimism he can play tonight.
Like yesterday the Braves are the clear top stack again facing Kuhl in Coors as they put up 13 runs yesterday and currently have a 6.3 run total just like yesterday. Chad Kuhl is coming off a solid game with 7 K’s and 2 ER but he still has 13 ER over his last four starts including two starts with 1 strikeout or less in that span so stack the Braves at will. The Rockies have a tougher matchup against Fried and are more of a GPP stack for me today. The Yankees and Blue Jays are my next favorite stacks both at home facing mediocre righties and are very affordable on both sites with lower than usual ownership with Coors in play. Other stacks to consider include the Phillies, Astros, and Red Sox.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Matt Olson at $4k with the platoon advantage against Kuhl on my favorite stack of the day and after hitting 2 HR’s last night Travis d’Arnaud will be a very tempting play at just $3,200. It’s going to be hard to choose between Acuna, Swanson, Ozuna, and Riley today but I would try fitting the max 4 Braves in your lineup depending on salary and positional needs. Next I want some Blue Jays exposure and Teoscar Hernandez at $2,900 is too cheap to pass up on a 7-game hitting streak while Bo Bichette ($3,400) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,600) both have great prices as well. If you want some cheap Yankees exposure I’d look at Matt Carpenter ($2,500) hitting 6th today and Miguel Andujar ($2,200) hitting 5th and Aaron Judge ($4,400) can always win a slate especially at a depressed ownership today. Some other FD bats I like for the price are Amed Rosario ($2,400), Jesse Winker ($2,600), Alex Verdugo ($2,800), Orlando Arcia ($2,600), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), and J.D. Davis ($2,400).
Looking at DraftKings the Braves are still too cheap with Matt Olson ($4,700), Marcell Ozuna ($4,300), and Adam Duvall ($2,500) my favorite plays for the price and Ronald Acuna is $700 cheaper than yesterday at $5,200 and should be pretty easy to fit in as well while Dansby Swanson ($4,600) and Travis d’Arnaud ($4,200) are squarely in play as well at those prices and Orlando Arcia is starting over Albies today and has the minimum $2k. Teoscar Hernandez ($4,000) remains my favorite Blue Jay to target and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at $4,300 is going to be very tempting to use over Matt Olson at 1B. Matt Carpenter remains a great value play at just $3,300 hitting 6th and Miguel Andujar is hitting 5th and is just $2,500. If you need some extreme salary relief I’d consider Oscar Gonzalez ($2,000) and/or Ernie Clement ($2,200) with the platoon advantages and at slightly higher prices I like Kyle Garlick ($2,700), Kole Calhoun ($2,900), Alex Verdugo ($3,400), and Mark Canha ($3,300) as solid value plays.
We have a ton of elite pitching to choose from between Corbin Burnes, Joe Musgrove, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, and Shane McClanahan. On FanDuel Shane Bieber is the only one of that group under $10k and will make fitting in a Braves stack much easier and it really is splitting hairs between McClanhan, Cole, and Burnes for highest upside today if you don’t go Bieber. On DraftKings Shane McClanahan is the cheapest of that group at just $9,600 and he will be my SP1 there while Shane Bieber remains under $10k so either he, Cole, or Burnes will be my SP2 depending on how much salary I need to save. I also really like Nathan Eovaldi on both sites if you need more salary for bats especially on DK where he’s only $8k. For cheap GPP plays I like Zach Eflin, JT Brubaker, Merrill Kelly, and Jose Urquidy.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn