MLB Grind Down: Monday, October 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:07:26

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Washington at LA Dodgers – 4:05 PM ET

Washington					LA Dodgers
			Gio Gonzalez					Kenta Maeda
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -140					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.280	1	27.8%	19.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.313	10	33.1%	19.2%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.326	18	34.1%	23.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.253	10	25.1%	30.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		67.2	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	91.2	3.36	7.43	23.2%	6.5%	8.3%	55.4%	17.6%	27.0%
2016	32	97.4	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	9.4%	47.6%	29.5%	32.7%
2015	31	95.1	3.77	3.79	22.3%	9.1%	9.8%	53.8%	26.6%	28.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.93 — K%: 23.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.307
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.42 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.321

Gonzalez is a pitcher that we have a hard time trusting in a meaningless game in June, how on Earth are we supposed to trust him in a playoff game on the road? His numbers have dipped away from home and he is coming off of a rough five-game stretch where he had a 7.43 ERA. He does have a nice matchup in his favor though, as the Dodgers were ranked dead last in team wOBA against left-handed pitching during the regular season. I don’t want to be sweating Gio in the first inning, especially in a slate that features the postseason GOAT, Madison Bumgarner.

Kenta Maeda
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		30.1	FPPG:		15.9
					Pitcher Rating:		82.1	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	84.0	3.75	4.03	24.8%	8.0%	10.9%	45.1%	28.0%	26.5%
2016	32	91.6	3.69	3.48	25.0%	7.0%	11.6%	43.9%	35.7%	29.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.22 — K%: 25.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.285
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.74 — K%: 24.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278

Maeda had an incredible rookie season for the Dodgers. In 32 starts, he posted a 3.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He pitched well at home and he was tough on both left and right-handed hitters. He comes into today’s game as a small favorite against the Nationals, who were ranked 12th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching during the regular season. I see the Dodgers winning this one rather easily, but anything can happen in baseball, especially in the postseason. It’s tough to fade Madison Bumgarner today, so I only recommend Maeda in tournaments and as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals picked up a big win in Game 2 to tie the series up at a game apiece. They now face the tough task of having to pick up a split in Los Angeles in order to face a winner-take-all Game 5 at home. They draw a difficult matchup today against Kenta Maeda, who pitched well all season. The one area to exploit this matchup is with left-handed hitters. During the regular season, Maeda allowed a .313 wOBA and a 33.1% hard contact rate to lefties.

• Nationals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (12 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.163 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (7 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.71 (8 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.52 (4 of 6)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers were downright awful against left-handed pitching during the regular season, ranking 30th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO. They don’t have a single hitter with a wOBA above .350 against lefties. While that’s obviously a concern, they do draw a favorable matchup against Gio Gonzalez at home. During the regular season, Gonzalez allowed a .326 wOBA, 18 home runs, and a 34.1% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.275 (30 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.118 (28 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 22.4% (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.98 (3 of 6)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Boston – 6:05 PM ET

Cleveland					Boston
			Josh Tomlin					Clay Buchholz
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -145					9.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.287	14	37.1%	15.6%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.342	6	35.8%	15.0%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.356	22	31.6%	16.8%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.300	15	26.8%	16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		25.9	FPPG:		12.8
					Pitcher Rating:		38.0	Pitcher Rank:		6
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	4	87.8	4.59	1.69	10.1%	0.0%	7.7%	46.6%	31.8%	25.8%
2016	29	90.1	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	7.4%	43.8%	35.2%	34.1%
2015	10	94.9	3.46	3.02	22.7%	3.2%	9.4%	37.5%	46.2%	33.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.95 — K%: 18.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.322
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.08 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306

Tomlin has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on this season. He is a slow-throwing right-hander that gives up a lot of hard contact. In 29 starts during the regular season, he posted a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.3% and a hard contact rate of 34.1%. He draws a terrible matchup against the Red Sox, who led the majors in team wOBA and runs scored per game during the regular season. Boston is also in a must-win situation, as they find themselves in an elimination game at home. Tomlin is an easy fade in all formats.

Clay Buchholz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		15.4	FPPG:		7.3
					Pitcher Rating:		44.8	Pitcher Rank:		5
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	85.4	4.91	3.14	17.8%	8.5%	10.3%	38.8%	51.8%	36.1%
2016	21	106.0	5.09	4.78	15.8%	9.4%	9.5%	41.2%	43.0%	31.3%
2015	18	95.3	3.35	3.26	22.8%	4.9%	10.6%	48.3%	30.5%	23.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.68 — K%: 17.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.337
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.45 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.275

Buchholz had one of his worst seasons as a pro, posting a 5.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8%. He is listed as a sizable favorite today, but his matchup against the Indians is less than ideal. During the regular season, Cleveland was ranked tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. I like the potential run support for Buchholz, but he will be on a quick leash in a must-win game for the Red Sox. There is a good chance that he doesn’t pitch enough innings to be eligible for the win.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians picked up two huge wins in Cleveland and now have a chance to close out the series and move on to the ALCS. Even though they are listed as underdogs, they draw an exploitable matchup against Clay Buchholz. In addition to the high ERA and SIERA, Buchholz allowed a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters during the regular season. This matchup bodes well for the Indians, who should have seven left-handed bats in their lineup.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.49 (2 of 6)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Coco Crisp

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox are going to show up today, right? This could potentially be the last Major League Baseball game for David Ortiz. They can’t let him go out by getting swept in the ALDS, can they? One of my favorite things about sports is taking a stroll down narrative street and we get to do that today. I fully expect the Red Sox to come out firing and put up a big game against Josh Tomlin. As far as the suggested plays go, give a big edge to the right-handed hitters, as Tomlin has some serious reverse-splits.

• Red Sox Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (1 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.183 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.42 (1 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.01 (1 of 6)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Brock Holt, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco – 9:35 PM ET

Chicago Cubs					San Francisco
			Jake Arrieta					Madison Bumgarner
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -125					6.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.278	7	29.6%	24.3%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.223	4	25.2%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.246	9	21.8%	23.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.279	22	32.9%	26.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$9,800
					FPPG:		37.9	FPPG:		20.6
					Pitcher Rating:		74.5	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	99.0	3.95	4.60	23.6%	8.9%	12.3%	46.8%	25.3%	24.7%
2016	31	100.8	3.94	3.10	23.9%	9.6%	10.5%	52.6%	27.9%	25.2%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 27.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.241
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.244

Arrieta still had a great season by most standards, but it wasn’t quite as magical as 2015 (and yes, I used the term magical). In 31 starts this season, he posted a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9% and a walk rate of 9.6%. Even though he is only a small underdog tonight against the Giants, it’s hard to justify the play with Madison Bumgarner pitching opposite him. He does make for an interesting leverage play in tournaments, but he is an easy fade in cash games.

Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$12,300
					FPPG:		39.0	FPPG:		22.1
					Pitcher Rating:		96.8	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	103.7	3.04	3.92	28.0%	3.2%	12.4%	42.9%	45.7%	30.5%
2016	34	105.0	3.36	2.74	27.5%	5.9%	11.5%	39.6%	41.5%	31.6%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.04 — K%: 28.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.241
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 25.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296

Is Bumgarner the greatest postseason pitcher of all time? You can certainly make the case. In his last nine outings, he has a 0.79 ERA with a 0.67 WHIP. No pitcher has ever had more scoreless starts. He hasn’t allowed a run in 23 consecutive innings. And his postseason ERA is the best of all time. Do you really want to fade him today? Of course not! I know that the Cubs are one of the best offenses in baseball against lefties, but we are seeing greatness and we might as well be on the right side of it when it comes to DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the lowest implied team total in the slate. It’s a little strange though, as they are projected to score 2.85 runs. The last time I checked, Madison Bumgarner doesn’t give up runs in the postseason. In addition to the absurd postseason numbers, Bumgarner held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA during the regular season. The Cubs’ offense can safely be avoided in cash games.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.182 (3 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (6 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.92 (9 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.02 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 2.85 (6 of 6)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

The Giants are favored in this game, but they still have the second lowest implied team total in the slate. They draw a difficult matchup against Jake Arrieta, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA this season. If possible, the ideal play in this slate is to load up on both offenses from the Indians/Red Sox game. Runs will be hard to come by with these two pitchers on the mound.

• Giants Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (12 of 30)
  Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.302 (27 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (27 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 17.3% (2 of 30)
  Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (17 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.41 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.15 (5 of 6)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE