MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 11 - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-07-11 15:04:09

Houston at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM EST

Houston					Tampa Bay
			Dallas Keuchel					Jake Odorizzi
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-110)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.202	0.52	0.233	0.255	SP vs. Left	0.231	0.646	0.285	0.27
SP vs. Right	0.24	0.638	0.285	0.177	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.694	0.309	0.184
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel

Tampa Bay Rays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 22)

Keuchel has dominated just about every opponent this year. He has a minuscule 2.14 ERA that is backed up by his 2.70 xFIP. Keuchel also sports a very solid 21.7% strikeout rate, which should bode well against this Rays lineup who has a high .318 wOBA against lefties, but does strike out at a 22.6% clip. Due to park and matchup, Keuchel is right up there with the top options of the slate. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10,400 FD, $10,300 DK

Jake Odorizzi

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 25.6% (Rank: 30)

Odorizzi is making his first start since June 5th because he had an oblique injury. It is always tough to trust anyone coming off a lengthy injury, which makes Odorizzi a risky play this afternoon. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Odorizzi could pitch well today coming back from injury and Vegas agrees, as this has a total set at 7 with Houston being slight favorites. Some of the Houston bats are in play, but as secondary plays only.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Preston Tucker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.352

Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.257 — OBP: 0.294

Tampa Bay

Keuchel has shut down much better offenses than the Rays and he is a top option on the slate. Forsythe is an option, as he is cheap and should be hitting toward the top of the order, but he is nothing more than a value play.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Logan Forsythe
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.277 — OBP: 0.344

Cincinnati at Miami – 4:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					Miami
			Raisel Iglesias					Adam Conley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.315	0.782	0.35	0.148	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.217	0.708	0.309	0.32	SP vs. Right	0	0	0	0
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L		Batter Splits			MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Raisel Iglesias

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 23)

Iglesias has not pitched since the end of May and was not exactly someone we want to get excited about. After four starts and six total appearances, Iglesias holds a 5.11 ERA on the season. While he does provide a decent strikeout rate (22.5%), it is hard to trust someone that is in a spot like Iglesias is today. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $5,500 DK

Adam Conley

Cincinnati Reds vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 9)

Conley will be making his first career start for the Marlins today. He has a tough matchup against the Reds, who have a wOBA of .318 against left-handed pitching. He could pitch well today, but he is too difficult to trust to put a lot of shares on it. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $3,000 FD, NA DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Clearly, Frazier would be the top play today for the Reds, as he gets to square off against a young lefty thrower. This game does feature a low total, with Miami being slight favorites with Conley on the mound, who has allowed a 2.33 ERA in 89 Triple A innings.

Elite Plays:

Todd Frazier
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.393 — OBP: 0.315

Brandon Phillips
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.072 — OBP: 0.342

Secondary Plays:

Eugenio Suarez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.368

Miami

Iglesias has allowed a .350 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate in a small sample. Dee Gordon has been full of upside lately and makes an elite play in this matchup.

Elite Plays:

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.079 — OBP: 0.353

Justin Bour
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.350

Secondary Plays:

Christian Yelich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.340

Derek Dietrich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.204 — OBP: 0.345

Oakland at Cleveland – 6:35 PM EST

Oakland					Cleveland
			Chris Bassitt					Carlos Carrasco
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-163)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.686	0.319	0.165	SP vs. Left	0.21	0.582	0.26	0.269
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.637	0.287	0.139	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.649	0.284	0.271
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Bassitt

Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 8)

Bassit has been good recently for the Athletics. Over his two starts , Bassit has a allowed three earned runs in 10.2 innings. He does however hold an xFIP of 5+, which should spell some regression going forward. He has an average matchup with the Indians, and add the matchup to the fact that he has a low strikeout rate (15.4%) and you can avoid him today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,500 DK

Carlos Carrasco

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 4)

Carrasco had a rough outing in his last start, as he allowed five earned runs in just four innings pitched to the Astros. With this game, Carrasco comes into this start with an elite 2.74 SIERA and 27.7% strikeout rate. His upside is off the charts, but will have a below-average matchup against the Athletics, who have a very low strikeout rate of 17.6%. Carrasco is a risk/reward play today and should pitch well. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9,500 FD, $11,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Carrasco and the Indians are large favorites today with a total of 7.5. The A’s bats are in a tough spot and we saw what Salazar was able to do last night. The bats are secondary plays only today.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Josh Reddick
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.379

Stephen Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.240 — OBP: 0.389

Cleveland

Although Bassit has allowed a wOBA of under .300 (to both sides of the plate), the big bats for the Indians should be able to put up a number of runs today against him.

Elite Plays:

Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.459

Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.140— OBP: 0.384

David Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.368

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.222 — OBP: 0.358

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:15 PM EST

St. Louis					Pittsburgh
			John Lackey					A.J. Burnett
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-120)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.722	0.317	0.162	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.721	0.324	0.184
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.699	0.307	0.217	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.692	0.307	0.222
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 17)

Lackey comes into this game holding a xFIP of 3.98 (3.09 ERA) and an average 17.5% strikeout rate. When you play Lackey, the one thing you know is you are going to get around seven innings pitched and only a few earned runs given up. Yet, his upside is a bit limited by the strikeout rate; that shouldn’t matter as much today, as he does have a solid matchup against the Pirates. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,800 FD, $8,400 DK

A.J. Burnett

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 11)

Burnett comes into this game with a very low 1.99 ERA (3.23 xFIP) to go along with a solid 20.5% strikeout rate. Burnett has been superb at home this year, as he has made eight starts and has only allowed a 1.28 ERA. He now has a tough matchup against the Cardinals, but he has shut them down once this year, and should make for a great play in all formats tonight. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $9,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Burnett has allowed a wOBA of less than .289 to both sides of the plate this year. Avoid the Cardinals bats tonight.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.177 — OBP: 0.413

Pittsburgh

This game features a total of 6.5 and a very close moneyline. The batters in this game should be avoided for the most part, as there are much better spots in the late slate.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.224 — OBP: 0.395

Gregory Polanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.326

NY Yankees at Boston – 7:15 PM EST

NY Yankees					Boston
			Ivan Nova					Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-134)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.319	0.803	0.352	0.092	SP vs. Left	0.205	0.604	0.266	0.286
SP vs. Right	0.313	0	0.466	0.167	SP vs. Right	0.228	0.616	0.278	0.213
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 2)

Nova has been below average in his first three starts of the year off the DL. He has really struggled with his command, as he has a 9.5% walk rate to go along with a very low 12.2% strikeout rate. It is a small sample size we are looking at tonight, but he is a safe avoid in this matchup against the Red Sox offense. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,400 DK

Eduardo Rodriguez

New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 7)

Rodriguez has proven his upside so far this year, as he has a 22.9% strikeout rate after his eight starts. He has been pitching very well in those eight starts as well, as his SIERA sits at 3.60. The only problem with Rodriguez has been his short leash and the fact that he does not seem to be able to keep his pitch count down enough to pitch more than 5-6 innings. He is an average play today against a Yankees squad that have a top tier offense against lefties this year. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7,500 FD, $6,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Rodriguez has pitched very well this year for the Red Sox, yet, he does have to pitch in a high profile matchup tonight against the Yankees, and Gardner and Alex Rodriguez are both elite plays in this matchup.

Elite Plays:

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.215 — OBP: 0.378

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.411

Secondary Plays:

Chris Young
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.450— ISO: 0.299 — OBP: 0.412

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351— ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.384

Boston

The Red Sox are in a great spot today as large favorites against Nova. Nova has allowed a career wOBA of .326+ to both sides of the plate, which puts a lot of the Red Sox bats in play tonight.

Elite Plays:

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.393

Brock Holt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.377

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.299

Pablo Sandoval
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.350

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