MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 4 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-07-04 17:30:45

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:15 PM EST

Milwaukee					Cincinnati
			Jimmy Nelson					Josh Smith
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-117)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.288	0.863	0.372	0.162	SP vs. Left	0.231	0.829	0.362	0.167
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.664	0.297	0.212	SP vs. Right	0.25	0	0.393	0.143
Batter Splits			MIL vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Nelson

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 6)

Nelson has been extremely inconsistent on the year, evidenced by his lackluster showing in his last start against the Phillies. On the year, Nelson has allowed two earned runs or less in eight starts and has allowed four or more in seven starts. He has faced this Reds team twice, one time giving up seven earned in 2.1 innings, while the other was an eight inning, one earned run gem. He is a risk, but has shown the ability to put up solid efforts and should be a tournament play only. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $6,500 DK

Joshua Smith

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 24)

Smith is someone that we can safely ignore tonight. Even though he has the solid matchup against the Brewers, they have been much better recently and have actually been one of the top offenses over the last two weeks. Smith is not going to pitch too deep into the game and lacks any type of upside tonight. He is safe to avoid. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Smith has walked ten batters in only eight innings pitched in his major league career. If this Brewers squad can be patient today against the youngster and should be able to put up a nice number on him as well.

Elite Plays

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.225 — OBP: 0.381

Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.155 — OBP: 0.333

Carlos Gomez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.308

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.229 — OBP: 0.328

Cincinnati

Nelson has been mashed by lefties on the year and has allowed a wOBA of .391 against them this year. This makes the matchup against the Reds a tough one and Vegas has this game at virtually a pickem with an 8.5 total.

Elite Plays:

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.245 — OBP: 0.390

Jay Bruce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.320

Secondary Plays:

Todd Frazier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.293 — OBP: 0.352

Billy Hamilton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.251 — ISO: 0.039 — OBP: 0.286

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 7:15 PM EST

Miami					Chicago Cubs
			Jarred Cosart					Donn Roach
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (-125)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0.693	0.312	0.152	SP vs. Left	0.354	0.945	0.418	0.07
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.668	0.297	0.148	SP vs. Right	0.3	0.79	0.352	0.139
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jarred Cosart

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 24.6% (Rank: 29)

Cosart is not someone that should be depended upon for a quality fantasy start. He has struggled recently to pitch more than five innings without allowing a few earned runs. He has a SIERA of 4.41 on the season and does nothing to help his value with his 14.8% strikeout rate. This game has an early total of 9.5 and Cosart can be avoided. Rating = 3.5

EDIT – This game’s total is now set at 7.5 due to the wind blowing in. This does not make either pitcher playable, but does bump down the hitters a bit.

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $5,300 DK

Clayton Richard

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 18)

It has been a while since we have see Clayton Richard take the mound and he will attempt to do it today in Wrigley with one of the biggest totals of the slate. He does get the benefit of not having to face Giancarlo, but he is still an easy avoid tonight as he has not pitched in the majors in two seasons and his minor league numbers are nothing special. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Both of these offenses are in excellent positions to score runs today. With the Marlins, they could be a nice, cheap stack as some of their righties should get pushed to the front of the order and the lefties are in play as well. Do not be afraid to use them in both cash and tournament formats.

Elite Plays:

Adeiny Hechavarria
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.403

Jeff Baker
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.245 — OBP: 0.339

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.076 — OBP: 0.387

Christian Yelich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.277 — ISO: 0.088 — OBP: 0.308

Chicago Cubs

Just like the Marlins, the Cubs are in an excellent spot to score a bunch of runs as they are favorites in this matchup with a 9.5 total. This Cubs squad features some big bats with a lot of upside and they have a nice matchup against Cosart who has allowed wOBAs of .313+ from both sides of the plate.

Elite Plays:

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.426 — ISO: 0.204 — OBP: 0.364

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.154 — OBP: 0.370

Miguel Montero
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323— ISO: 0.159— OBP: 0.341

Secondary Plays:

Chris Coghlan
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.363

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.157 — OBP: 0.286

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:15 PM EST

Philadelphia					Atlanta
			Kevin Correia					Alex Wood
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL (-190)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.304	0.863	0.374	0.094	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.649	0.289	0.24
SP vs. Right	0.294	0	0.343	0.148	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.681	0.303	0.214
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Correia

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 3)

Correia has now made four starts this year and has not been good. He has allowed 14 earned runs (eight earned) over only 20 innings pitched. Correria is just allowing way to many base runners in those four starts as he has given up at least seven hits in his last three starts. Avoid him even against this Braves offense right now. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5,300 FD, $4,600 DK

Alex Wood

Philadelphia Phillies vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 10)

Wood has been pretty good this year for the Braves. He has a 3.79 xFIP on the year to back up his 3.17 ERA. The lefty will take on a Phillies squad that matches up well on paper, but has actually has a wOBA of .306 against lefties and a low strikeout rate. Wood is still in play, but don’t go all in. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,400 FD, $9,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are very large underdogs against Wood today who has allowed righties to get to him a bit this year (.328 wOBA). A couple of these Phillies could be slotted in as value plays tonight, but there are much better matchups on the late slate to choose from.

Elite Plays:

Maikel Franco
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.375 — OBP: 0.385

Secondary Plays:

Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.075 — OBP: 0.489

Jeff Francoeur
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.260— ISO: 0.102 — OBP: 0.258

Atlanta

The tough thing here is the Braves are in such a good matchup, yet their bats are so weak now without Freeman in the lineup. The potential is clearly here in a matchup with Correia who has allowed lefties a wOBA of over .400 in a small sample size. They are a very cheap stack tonight.

Elite Plays:

Nick Markakis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.060 — OBP: 0.413

A.J. Pierzynski
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.305

Secondary Plays:

Juan Uribe
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.355

Jace Peterson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.118 — OBP: 0.348

LA Angels at Texas – 9:05 PM EST

LA Angels					Texas
			Hector Santiago					Wandy Rodriguez
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-123)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.199	0.523	0.239	0.204	SP vs. Left	0.287	0.797	0.347	0.149
SP vs. Right	0.243	0.738	0.325	0.212	SP vs. Right	0.274	0.837	0.361	0.189
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago

Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 23.9% (Rank: 27)

Santiago has been an above-average pitcher so far this season for the Angels. Yet, there are some big warning signs for the lefty going tonight. His 2.58 ERA is not truly supported by his xFIP that is almost two runs higher at 4.46. Also, he has a fly ball rate of 52.7%, which could spell trouble pitching in Globe Life tonight. With that said, the Rangers do not have a ton of big-time righties in the lineup and Santiago has held lefties to a wOBA of under .200. This one could go either way, which makes Santiago as a tournament play only. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7,600 FD, $6,900 DK

Wandy Rodriguez

Los Angeles Angels vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 8)

Wandy burned a lot of people on Monday when he was able to shut down the Orioles offense in Camden Yards. Other than the blowup against the Athletics, Wandy has actually pitched pretty well in his 13 starts. He has a SIERA of 4.20 and a strikeout rate of 18.8%. Wandy continues to be tough to trust though and will have a tough time shutting down the big two of the Angels tonight in a hitter friendly environment. This game features a very high total of 9 and Wandy should be avoided. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $5,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Even though Wandy has been decent this season, he is still in a very tough matchup against some big bats in this Angels squad and also has to deal with a hitter’s environment tonight. This Angels squad is in play against the lefty and Trout in a top option at the outfield position.

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.432 — ISO: 0.297 — OBP: 0.411

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.258 — OBP: 0.265

Secondary Plays:

David Freese
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.286

Texas

I like Santiago a bit tonight against the lefty-heavy Rangers squad, but the park factors and Vegas total shows that this should be a high-scoring matchup on both sides. While Santiago kept lefties down to a wOBA of .195, he has allowed righties a wOBA of .324, putting some of those bats in play for Texas.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.298

Secondary Plays:

Elvis Andrus
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.107 — OBP: 0.336

Robinson Chirinos
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.346

Colorado at Arizona – 10:10 PM EST

Colorado					Arizona
			David Hale					Patrick Corbin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (-162)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.295	0.833	0.360	0.123	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.255	0.716	0.311	0.145	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Hale

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 17)

David Hale takes the mound for the Rockies as someone who has struggled this season in seven starts, and now has to go into another hitter friendly park against the Diamondbacks. His 5.95 ERA is not telling the whole story as he does have a SIERA of 3.76 on the year. Yet, he is a big underdog in a game featuring a 9.5 total. Avoid him tonight. Rating = 2.5

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $4,000 DK

Patrick Corbin

Colorado Rockies vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.284 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 30)

Partick Corbin will be making his first start of the 2015 season after coming off the DL. It is tough to know what you are going to get out of a pitcher after such a long layoff, but Corbin was great for the Diamondbacks in 2013 as he put up a 3.41 ERA in 32 starts that season. He is a heavy favorite today, but it is better to take a wait and see approach with him tonight unless you want to go out on a limb for tournaments as the Rockies have struggled against lefties this year. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Corbin was on his way to be one of the better starts in the National League prior to going down with an injury and missing 2014. Making his first start back against this Rockies squad may not be the worst spot as they are terrible against lefties this year. Yet, he has walked a lot of batters in his rehab starts and if he tries to keep his command together, guys like Tulo and Arenado can make him pay.

Elite Plays:

Nolan Arenado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329— ISO: 0.169 — OBP: 0.348

Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.461 — ISO: 0.237 — OBP: 0.435

Secondary Plays:

D.J. Lemahieu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.371

Arizona

Hale has allowed a 2.34 HR/9 (11 home runs in just seven starts) and now has to go into Chase field. This Arizona offense is a great one to target with a ton of upside tonight and you are going to want some exposure to them.

Elite Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.276 — OBP: 0.471

David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.202 — OBP: 0.345

A.J. Pollock
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.333

Secondary Plays:

Jake Lamb
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.141 — OBP: 0.356

Yasmany Tomas
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.105 — OBP: 0.361

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