MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 19 Page Three

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-07-19 12:27:16

Minnesota at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

Minnesota					Oakland
			Tommy Milone					Jesse Chavez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-135)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.214	0.617	0.276	0.134	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.703	0.311	0.187
SP vs. Right	0.272	0.773	0.34	0.156	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.656	0.29	0.243
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tommy Milone

Oakland Athletics vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 20)

Strikeout Rate: 17.0% (Rank: 28)

Like Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Milone has a good ERA and miserable advanced statistics. Don’t fall for this trap, either. With just six strikeouts per nine innings and a high walk rate, run away while you can, especially as he has to face a Oakland offense that is often dangerous at home and doesn’t strike out much. Rating = 3.5

Jesse Chavez

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 17)

Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 12)

Jesse Chavez tends to be that pitcher that is always a safe cash game play. He almost never gets shelled, but it’s also rare when you will see him throw eight scoreless innings with a bunch of strikeouts. You generally know what you are going to get, and that has value. One word of caution, though, has to be that Minnesota’s offense has been much more potent since they added Miguel Sano to the middle of the order. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8,200 FD, $6,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

There is little reason to actively target Minnesota bats against Chavez here. As I wrote above, he doesn’t get hit hard very often. There are better ways to use your cap space today.

Elite Plays

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays

Miguel Sano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.527 — ISO: .310 — OBP: 0.528

Oakland

A lot of the popular Oakland hitters are better against RHP (Billy Burns and Josh Reddick come to mind). With that said, I like their chances to put up some runs today, and they are one of my favorite sneaky stacks for GPP’s on this Sunday.

Elite Plays

Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: .091 — OBP: 0.373

Secondary Plays

Josh Phegley
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: .213 — OBP: 0.364

Brett Lawrie
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: .247 — OBP: 0.330

San Francisco at Arizona – 4:10 PM EST

San Francisco					Arizona
			Madison Bumgarner					Patrick Corbin
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-125)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.579	0.258	0.302	SP vs. Left	0.667	0	0.717	0
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.679	0.298	0.238	SP vs. Right	0.333	0.882	0.377	0.167
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 4)

Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 17)

The ace parade is not yet complete, as we have Madison Bumgarner throwing in the desert against the Diamondbacks. The beat also goes on with the fact that this is not the best matchup. Chase Field is very favorable for hitters, and the Diamondbacks’ offense is much more potent against left-handed pitching. Bumgarner is still an elite pitcher, and I will put him right there with Chris Sale today in the “always a solid option but he is not an auto-play today” group of aces. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11,500 FD, $10,600 DK

Patrick Corbin

San Francisco Giants vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 13)

Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 22)

Patrick Corbin is still working his way back from injury and is not yet a fantasy option. The Giants have been the best offense in baseball over the last week, making Corbin an easy avoid today. With Bumgarner on the hill opposite Corbin, that conclusion is further cemented. Rating = 2.5

Salaries: $6,600 FD, $6,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are the hottest team on the planet right now, and it’s hard to argue with any of their bats as they continue to bang out 15, 18, or 20 hits with regularity. The offensive improvement has coincided with Hunter Pence return to the lineup and the team is much more dangerous with him in the middle of the order. The only Giant bat I would definitely avoid is Brandon Belt, who just can’t hit left-handed pitching.

Elite Plays

Hunter Pence
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: .250 — OBP: 0.300

Buster Posey
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: .157 — OBP: 0.320

Secondary Plays

Brandon Crawford
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: .229 — OBP: 0.368

Arizona

Arizona has several guys that hit the ball very well against left-handers, but they also carry very high price tags. Using a large percentage of your cap space on them against Bumgarner probably isn’t the best decision, but their upside makes them okay options in a GPP format.

Elite Plays

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: .297 — OBP: 0.447

A.J. Pollock
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: .203 — OBP: 0.376

Colorado at San Diego – 4:10 PM EST

Colorado					San Diego
			Eddie Butler					Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.345	1.025	0.439	0.093	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.776	0.336	0.187
SP vs. Right	0.291	0.837	0.365	0.101	SP vs. Right	0.235	0.607	0.269	0.203
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Eddie Butler

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 28)

Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 6)

Eddie Butler has walked more batters than he has struck out over 11 major league starts in 2015. I don’t care that this game is in Petco Park. You can’t win with those ratios, and there is no reason to consider Butler here. I wouldn’t roster him if this game was being played in a park with outfield walls that were 600 feet away. Rating = 1.5

Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,300 DK

Andrew Cashner

Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 1)

Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 16)

The 2015 season began with a lot of fanfare for Andrew Cashner, and the balloon has slowly deflated over the first three and a half months of the season. His advanced stats aren’t terrible, and he has been victimized by a high home-run to fly ball rate along with an abnormally high BABIP. I expect some improvement, and facing the Rockies at pitcher-friendly Petco Park could be the way to get the second half started. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Colorado’s bats get their prices inflated by virtue of playing half their games at Coors Field. Don’t be fooled by their top overall wOBA rating against RHP, as most of that damage comes in home games. Their team wOBA in road games is 25th in the league. That combination of a bad park shift and overpriced bats makes it hard to get excited here.

Elite Plays

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays

Nolan Arenado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: .338 — OBP: 0.325

San Diego

San Diego could do some damage against Butler in this game if his control gets the best of him again. The Padres are a team that is much better to target when they draw a LHP, but it’s hard to be picky on a day where the bats are so hard to come by.

Elite Plays

Justin Upton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: .203 — OBP: 0.355

Secondary Plays

Will Venable
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: .161 — OBP: 0.333

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 5:05 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Atlanta
			Jake Arrieta					Shelby Miller
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (-137)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.202	0.573	0.260	0.288	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.715	0.313	0.17
SP vs. Right	0.217	0.567	0.251	0.249	SP vs. Right	0.214	0.632	0.282	0.190
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20)

Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 28)

I am not sure what else Jake Arrieta has to do to get noticed as an elite fantasy pitcher. He was simply dazzling in a complete game victory against the White Sox on Sunday, allowing just two baserunners while striking out the side in the 9th inning to finish the job. His 2.66 ERA is backed up by a solid 2.72 xFIP, and he limits damage by pitching to contact when he gets in trouble. With a low walk rate and an increasing strikeout rate, don’t sleep on Arrieta in the favorable matchup against the Braves, who were almost no-hit by Jon Lester on Saturday. He is my second favorite option next to Hamels. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10,100 FD, $11,900 DK

Shelby Miller

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 23)

Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 2)

Shelby Miller was dominant at the start of the 2015 season, but his production has slowly dipped in recent weeks. He is still a decent mid-range play in the right matchup, as he is generating a ton of ground balls and pitching to contact more than he did with the Cardinals. He has more strikeout upside in this matchup against the Cubs, but the win will be hard to come by with Arrieta opposing him here. *Rating = 5.5 *

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $9,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

I don’t hate the Cubs as a sneaky team stack in tournaments against Miller, and I think you can target a bat or two in cash games if you’re feeling up to it. If you are doing that, it would be best to go with the known commodities – especially on sites that do not allow late swap as this game is a late start and the lineups likely won’t be out by 1:00 EST.

Elite Plays

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: .271 — OBP: 0.390

Secondary Plays

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: .152 — OBP: 0.292

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: .176 — OBP: 0.379

Atlanta

The Atlanta offense is even more timid without Freddie Freeman, and there’s no reason to be looking to their bats against one of the best pitchers in the game.

Elite Plays

NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS

Boston at LA Angels – 8:05 PM EST

Boston					LA Angels
			Eduardo Rodriguez					Hector Santiago
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-129)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.205	0.604	0.266	0.286	SP vs. Left	0.209	0.547	0.247	0.198
SP vs. Right	0.228	0.616	0.278	0.213	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.719	0.317	0.212
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez

Los Angeles Angels vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 17)

Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 26)

Eduardo Rodriguez has made nine major league starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in seven of them. He has allowed 15 earned runs total in the other two starts. The upside is there, but Rodriguez obviously carries some risk. I don’t want to take my chances against a hot Angels’ offense in prime time on national television. He is likely to feel some pressure in this contest. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,500 FD, $8,500 DK

Hector Santiago

Boston Red Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 22)

Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 25)

Hector Santiago has transformed himself into a very solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Angels, and he has proven that he can eat innings for the team. However, there are some alarming signs here. His 2.33 ERA is somehow a full two runs better than his 4.32 xFIP, and he also allows a lot of fly balls. Boston’s offense is capable of going deep at times, which has me off Santiago this evening. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,600 FD, $9,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Boston offense has been one of the most frustrating ones to peg for fantasy players this season. They often disappoint in good spots and then produce when you least expect it. Therefore, I now have no idea what to expect. If you target anyone, look to the long-ball threats against a fly-ball pitcher.

Elite Plays

Xander Bogaerts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: .139 — OBP: 0.388

Secondary Plays

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: .289 — OBP: 0.353

Mookie Betts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: .156 — OBP: 0.294

LA Angels

I respect the stuff that Eduardo Rodriguez has, and the Angel bats are all priced up given their power surge in the month of July. They certainly have bats that are in play, but it’s hard to find a good value with the prices at their current levels.

Elite Plays

Mike Trout
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: .350 — OBP: 0.400

Secondary Plays

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.270 — ISO: .205 — OBP: 0.247

David Freese
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: .205 — OBP: 0.310

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