MLB Grind Down: Sunday, October 4 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-10-04 14:09:25

Washington at NY Mets – 3:10 PM EST

Washington					NY Mets
			Tanner Roark					Jacob Degrom
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.64	0.28	0.2	SP vs. Left	0.201	0.536	0.237	0.269
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.64	0.28	0.2	SP vs. Right	0.201	0.536	0.237	0.269
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tanner Roark – The Nationals close out a disappointing season with Tanner Roark on the mound. After a breakout 2014 season, Roark has not had the same success in sporadic innings this season. His middling strikeout rate and below average SIERA give him very little upside regardless of what kind of lineup the Mets put on the field. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 105 – SIERA: 4.22 – ERA: 4.63 – K%: 14.4% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 1.46

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $4,600 DK

Jacob deGrom – deGrom has cemented his status as an ace with an excellent season. In his last start at Cincinnati, he struck out nine batters in six innings, showing he has some upside even if the Mets limit his innings today. He is too risky for cash games with the likelihood of a shortened start, but there is certainly some upside here. Pitcher Rating – 7.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 187 – SIERA: 3.03 – ERA: 2.60 – K%: 26.9% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.77

Salaries: $10,800 FD, $11,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Washington

You don’t want to use batters against Jacob deGrom, as he has allowed a .211 wOBA to righties and a .292 to lefties. If you want to go very contrarian in tournaments, you can hope that deGrom gets pulled after five innings, and the Nationals can score some runs off of the bullpen.

Elite Plays

Bryce Harper – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .476 – OBP: .472 – ISO: .349 – wRC+: 208

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rendon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .317 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .111 – wRC+: 98
Jayson Werth – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .300 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .130 – wRC+: 87

NY Mets

Tanner Roark has not been effective against left-handed batters this season, allowing a .377 wOBA with a low 11.3% strikeout rate. If the Mets put their best lineup on the field, they are in play in all formats.

Elite Plays

Curtis Granderson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .388 – ISO: .220 – wRC+: 149
Lucas Duda – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .237 – wRC+: 129
Daniel Murphy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .347 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .196 – wRC+: 124

Secondary Plays:

Michael Conforto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .381 – OBP: .351 – ISO: .265 – wRC+: 148
Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .262 – wRC+: 147
David Wright – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .117 – wRC+: 121

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 3:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Milwaukee
			Dan Haren					Jorge Lopez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.699	0.302	0.156	SP vs. Left	0.357	0.867	0.385	0.188
SP vs. Right	0.243	0.699	0.302	0.156	SP vs. Right	0.357	0.867	0.385	0.188
Batter Splits			CHC vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Haren – Because the Cubs are still playing for home field in the wild card game, they should play to win today. Haren is in a good position to pick up a win, but doesn’t have the kind of strikeout upside to get excited about. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 181 – SIERA: 4.48 – ERA: 3.67 – K%: 17.3% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 1.54

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,900 DK

Jorge Lopez – Lopez will make his second career start on the season’s final day. He was solid in his first game at San Diego, striking out seven batters in five innings and picking up a win. He was good at AA this year, with 137 strikeouts in 143 innings with a 2.26 ERA. The Cubs are a much tougher matchup than the Padres assuming they play their A lineup, so I can’t recommend using Lopez as anything but a very long shot GPP play. Pitcher Rating – 5

Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

We don’t have much to go on with Jorge Lopez, as he skipped AAA and only has one major league start to look at. The Cubs should be playing to win with their top lineup, and they can be a tough lineup for right-handed pitchers to deal with. They are in play, especially in tournaments.

Elite Plays

Anthony Rizzo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .260 – wRC+: 147
Kyle Schwarber – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .409 – OBP: .397 – ISO: .282 – wRC+: 162
Kris Bryant – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .377 – OBP: .374 – ISO: .217 – wRC+: 140

Secondary Plays:

Dexter Fowler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .168 – wRC+: 101
Chris Coghlan – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .208 – wRC+: 121

Milwaukee

Dan Haren has allowed a lot of power to left-handed hitters this season, with a .370 wOBA and 2.25 HR/9. Unfortunately, the Brewers don’t have anyone besides Adam Lind who can take advantage of that.

Elite Plays

Adam Lind – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .385 – ISO: .214 – wRC+: 138

Secondary Plays:

Scooter Gennett – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .310 – OBP: .314 – ISO: .126 – wRC+: 90

Kansas City at Minnesota – 3:10 PM EST

Kansas City					Minnesota
			Johnny Cueto					Ricky Nolasco
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.222	0.656	0.288	0.223	SP vs. Left	0.309	0.828	0.36	0.206
SP vs. Right	0.222	0.656	0.288	0.223	SP vs. Right	0.309	0.828	0.36	0.206
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto – Cueto is pitching acceptably for real baseball standards, but it has been a long time since he’s shown the upside worthy of using him on your fantasy roster. He is simply a league average pitcher at this point, and his reputation is stronger than his ability. He should have a good chance for a win and is unlikely to hurt you, but he’s also unlikely to be one of the top scoring pitchers today. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 207 – SIERA: 3.78 – ERA: 3.48 – K%: 20.4% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 0.91

Salaries: $10,500 FD, $8,600 DK

Ricky Nolasco – After the Twins were eliminated from postseason contention, they decided to throw Ricky Nolasco in today’s season finale, which makes me think they are rooting for Kansas City to get home field advantage. Nolasco hasn’t made a start since May and should be overmatched by this Royals offense. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 34 – SIERA: 3.90 – ERA: 5.97 – K%: 20.9% – BB%: 7.0% – HR/9: 0.52

Salaries: $6,000 FD, $5,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Ricky Nolasco is a guy who keeps the ball around the strike zone and can be hit very hard at times. With this being his first start since May, I don’t expect him to pitch long, and the Twins have nothing at stake in today’s game. Royals bats look like strong plays in all formats today.

Elite Plays

Eric Hosmer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .385 – ISO: .193 – wRC+: 142
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .255 – wRC+: 146
Mike Moustakas – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .175 – wRC+: 124
Alex Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .372 – ISO: .158 – wRC+: 117
Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 111

Secondary Plays:

Salvador Perez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .323 – OBP: .304 – ISO: .180 – wRC+: 103
Alcides Escobar – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .262 – OBP: .285 – ISO: .058 – wRC+: 61

Minnesota

Cueto has been tougher on left-handed bats this season, and has allowed a .318 wOBA to right-handed batters. He’s not really a pitcher you want to play heavily against, but we should expect the Twins to be able to put up a few runs against him.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Sano – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .396 – OBP: .387 – ISO: .281 – wRC+: 153
Brian Dozier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .321 – OBP: .301 – ISO: .209 – wRC+: 102

Boston at Cleveland – 3:10 PM EST

Boston					Cleveland
			Rick Porcello					Danny Salazar
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-156)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.71	0.311	0.185	SP vs. Left	0.249	0.702	0.308	0.243
SP vs. Right	0.27	0.71	0.311	0.185	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.702	0.308	0.243
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello – Porcello’s SIERA shows some upside, as does his 45 strikeouts in 44 September innings. A pitcher with a low walk rate, decent strikeout rate and a high ground ball percentage is always going to have a chance for success. He tends to give up a lot of hits, which can lead to the occasional big inning, but overall, he is a decent option today, though certainly not safe. Pitcher Rating – 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 165 – SIERA: 3.77 – ERA: 5.02 – K%: 20.1% – BB%: 5.2% – HR/9: 1.36

Salaries: $7,700 FD, $7,300 DK

Danny Salazar – Salazar was an elite strikeout pace through the early part of the season. Maybe he’s worn down, but the strikeouts have fallen off a cliff, with a 13.8% K rate over his last five starts. Because of how dominant he was earlier in the season, I suppose you could take a GPP shot that he can find that stuff for one last start, but it seems unlikely to resurface until next season. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 179 – SIERA: 3.41 – ERA: 3.51 – K%: 25.7% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 1.15

Salaries: $9,100 FD, $10,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The season long numbers would imply that you should avoid using batters against Danny Salazar, as he has allowed a .307 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .283 wOBA to right-handed batters. But with his drastic drop in strikeout rate, he is not the same pitcher. I’m not going out of my way to target Red Sox batters, but they do not need to be written off either.

Elite Plays

David Ortiz – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .412 – OBP: .395 – ISO: .319 – wRC+: 161

Secondary Plays:

Mookie Betts – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .195 – wRC+: 120
Dustin Pedroia – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .136 – wRC+: 115
Jackie Bradley Jr. – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .338 – OBP: .309 – ISO: .268 – wRC+: 110
Travis Shaw – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 328 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .182 – wRC+: 103

Cleveland

While Porcello has been pitching well, he can give up quite a few hits on occasion, so I don’t mind the left-handed bats at the top of the Cleveland lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 389 – OBP: .412 – ISO: .161 – wRC+: 150
Francisco Lindor – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .151 – wRC+: 121
Carlos Santana – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: 328 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .194 – wRC+: 108

Houston at Arizona – 3:10 PM EST

Houston					Arizona
			Lance McCullers					Robbie Ray
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.713	0.311	0.216	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.773	0.338	0.198
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.713	0.311	0.216	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.773	0.338	0.198
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L		Batter Splits			ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance McCullers – The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers as they remain in contention for the AL West title. McCullers is showing no signs of slowing down, as he’s maintained his strong strikeout rate throughout the year. After a three week break from the rotation in August, he has come back with seven straight starts allowing three runs or less and has at least six strikeouts in five of those games. Despite going to a difficult ballpark in Arizona, McCullers is an upside option today. Pitcher Rating – 7.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 120 – SIERA: 3.57 – ERA: 3.21 – K%: 24.8% – BB%: 8.3% – HR/9: 0.67

Salaries: $8,700 FD, $8,700 DK

Robbie Ray – Ray has had a nice season, showing some decent upside from time to time, but facing this Astros team in this ballpark is not a good time to take a shot on him. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 123 – SIERA: 4.16 – ERA: 3.50 – K%: 21.2% – BB%: 9.2% – HR/9: 0.66

Salaries: $6,600 FD, $6,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Robbie Ray has decent numbers against both right and left-handed batters, but I don’t expect him to shut down this Houston offense. He has given up a high 37.8% hard contact rate to right-handed batters, which is going to cause his HR/FB% to rise, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen today.

Elite Plays

Carlos Correa – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .381 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .287 – wRC+: 144
George Springer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .391 – ISO: .226 – wRC+: 151
Jose Altuve – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .407 – OBP: .427 – ISO: .162 – wRC+: 162

Secondary Plays:

Evan Gattis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .292 – OBP: .274 – ISO: .187 – wRC+: 82

Arizona

Lance McCullers has allowed just a .261 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .311 wOBA to right-handed batters this season. Paul Goldschmidt is the only Arizona hitter on my radar today.

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .400 – OBP: .424 – ISO: .236 – wRC+: 152

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