MLB Grind Down: Sunday, October 4th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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St. Louis at Atlanta – 3:05 PM EST
| St. Louis | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Lance Lynn |  | Matt Wisler | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ATL (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.621 | 0.277 | 25.4% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.621 | 0.277 | 25.4% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance Lynn – Lynn has not allowed a run in his last two starts, but overall it’s been a rough end of the season for him. Since mid-August, he has a 28:24 K:BB ratio in 41 innings. It seems unlikely that they will let him pitch deep into the game even if he’s pitching well today. He has a decent shot for a win and a respectable outing against a weak Braves lineup, but there is very little upside here. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 170 – SIERA: 4.01 – ERA: 3.06 – K%: 22.6% – BB%: 9.3% – HR/9: 0.69
Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,400 DK
Matt Wisler – Wisler has shown some signs of life in the month of September, with three quality starts and an 18.1% strikeout rate. His high fly ball rate will give him the chance to have some good games, as fly balls tend to go for outs when they don’t clear the fence, but it also makes him risky. Overall, his strikeout rate is just not high enough to get me interested in playing him if the Cardinals play anything close to their best lineup. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 100 – SIERA: 4.99 – ERA: 5.11 – K%: 15.4% – BB%: 8.7% – HR/9: 1.44
Salaries: $4,800 FD, $5,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
If the Cardinals roll out their top hitters today, you can look to play some left-handed batters against Matt Wisler, as he has big splits with a .434 wOBA allowed to lefties. He has been very effective against righties.
Elite Plays
Matt Carpenter – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .393 – OBP: .385 – ISO: .250 – wRC+: 153
Secondary Plays:
Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .358 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .170 – wRC+: 129
Kolten Wong – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .338 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .157 – wRC+: 115
Atlanta
It’s hard to recommend any Braves hitters, but if you really want to play hitters here, the left-handed batters can be considered where their prices are low. Lance Lynn has allowed a .355 wOBA to left-handed batters this season.
Elite Plays
Freddie Freeman – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .382 – ISO: .232 – wRC+: 150
Secondary Plays:
Nick Markakis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .397 – ISO: .091 – wRC+: 120
A.J. Pierzynski – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .148 – wRC+: 118
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 3:05 PM EST
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Josh Smith |  | J.A. Happ | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.736 | 0.325 | 18.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.729 | 0.319 | 18.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.736 | 0.325 | 18.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.729 | 0.319 | 18.90% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | Batter Splits | PIT vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Josh Smith – Smith has not been good at all in his rookie campaign. He has not pitched more than five innings in any of his six starts, and his 14.8% walk rate is not going to give him much chance for success. He should not be used in any format today. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 28 – SIERA: 5.32 – ERA: 7.22 – K%: 18.3% – BB%: 14.8% – HR/9: 1.26
Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,400 DK
J.A. Happ – Happ has been pitching incredibly for the past two months, with what is probably the best stretch of his career. In his last nine starts, he has allowed just nine earned runs with a 56:8 K:BB ratio. The problem is not whether he can be expected to pitch well, but whether he can be expected to pitch deep enough into the game to be useful. On Monday, he was removed from the game after just 56 pitches and six shutout innings. With the Pirates needing to win today, you would think he would be allowed to pitch as deep as needed, but the Pirates seem to prefer using their bullpen later in games. Happ has only pitched seven innings once during his hot streak. He seems likely to pay off his salary and there is strikeout upside, but don’t count on more than six innings even if he’s pitching well. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 166 – SIERA: 3.84 – ERA: 3.74 – K%: 20.7% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 0.87
Salaries: $7,300 FD, $7,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
You don’t want to use left-handed batters against J.A. Happ, and he has been pretty good against righties as well, with a .311 wOBA allowed. Pittsburgh will be pulling out all the stops today to try and win this game, and there is not much upside for the Reds batters.
Secondary Plays:
Pittsburgh
It’s a small sample size on Josh Smith, but the Pirates should be thrilled to be facing him today when they need to win to wrap up home-field advantage for the Wild Card game. A 7.22 ERA, 5.32 SIERA and a 14.8% walk rate bode well for Pittsburgh. He has been worse against left-handed batters, but all Pirates batters are in play today in all formats.
Elite Plays
Andrew McCutchen – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .402 – ISO: .202 – wRC+: 145
Starling Marte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .153 – wRC+: 121
Neil Walker – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .182 – wRC+: 118
Gregory Polanco – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .323 – OBP: .338 – ISO: .134 – wRC+: 106
Secondary Plays:
Pedro Alvarez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .231 – wRC+: 114
Aramis Ramirez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .296 – OBP: .291 – ISO: .152 – wRC+: 89
Francisco Cervelli – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .090 – wRC+: 112
NY Yankees at Baltimore – 3:05 PM EST
| NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Michael Pineda |  | Chris Tillman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.697 | 0.300 | 22.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.746 | 0.324 | 16.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.697 | 0.300 | 22.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.746 | 0.324 | 16.50% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Michael Pineda – It has been an up and down season for Pineda, but we’ve seen more down in his seven starts since returning from the DL. He gave up seven runs in his last start against Boston, and has given up eight home runs in his last seven starts. The Orioles are a bit of a boom or bust offense, but I don’t see much more than a long shot GPP play on Pineda today. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 157 – SIERA: 3.11 – ERA: 4.24 – K%: 23.2% – BB%: 3.2% – HR/9: 1.20
Salaries: $8,800 FD, $8,300 DK
Chris Tillman – The Orioles were expecting big things from Tillman this year, but it just didn’t happen. He has only been fantasy relevant in five of his 30 starts, and even if the Yankees throw out a B lineup today, I don’t see any reason to consider using him. Pitcher Rating –4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 167 – SIERA: 4.66 – ERA: 5.05 – K%: 16.1% – BB%: 8.4% – HR/9: 1.07
Salaries: $6,700 FD, $4,900 DK
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Tillman has allowed a lot of power to right-handed batters with a .352 wOBA and 1.76 HR/9. His .302 wOBA to left-handed batters looks better, but that is aided by a low 3.5% HR/FB rate, and he has walked 10% of lefties, which gives him more downside if the Yankees play their top lineup today.
Elite Plays
Alex Rodriguez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .349 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .223 – wRC+: 121
Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .215 – wRC+: 106
Carlos Beltran – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .355 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .198 – wRC+: 125
Secondary Plays:
Greg Bird – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .312 – wRC+: 146
Jacoby Ellsbury – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .298 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .099 – wRC+: 85
Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .149 – wRC+: 105
Baltimore
The Orioles bats are an interesting tournament play, as few people will want to go against Michael Pineda, but as I mentioned, he has had some trouble since his return from the DL. Pineda has a strong ground ball rate against left-handed batters, but allows more fly balls to righties.
Elite Plays
Manny Machado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .225 – wRC+: 143
Chris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .401 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .337 – wRC+: 156
Secondary Plays:
Jonathan Schoop – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .262 – wRC+: 140
Matt Wieters – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .310 – ISO: .152 – wRC+: 95
Miami at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM EST
| Miami | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Adam Conley |  | David Buchanan | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-123) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.723 | 0.311 | 22.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.308 | 0.860 | 0.373 | 15.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.723 | 0.311 | 22.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.308 | 0.860 | 0.373 | 15.10% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Adam Conley – Conley has put together a strong run to close out his rookie season. In his last three starts he has a 19:3 K:BB with three runs allowed in 19 innings. His SIERA for the past month sits at 3.54 with a 25.4% strikeout rate. The Phillies offense is certainly capable of being shut down, so I don’t mind a tournament play on Conley today. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 61 – SIERA: 3.87 – ERA: 3.84 – K%: 22.2% – BB%: 7.8% – HR/9: 1.03
Salaries: $6,600 FD, $6,400 DK
David Buchanan – Buchanan has been less awful over his last three starts, but he has such a low strikeout rate, there is absolutely no upside, and he can be safely avoided. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 68 – SIERA: 5.14 – ERA: 7.54 – K%: 11.4% – BB%: 8.6% – HR/9: 1.46
Salaries: $4,300 FD, $4,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Buchanan has very ugly numbers against left-handed batters; a .453 wOBA allowed with a 7.7% strikeout rate and 12.3% walk rate. The Marlins have several good left-handed bats that are worth playing today.
Elite Plays
Dee Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .072 – wRC+: 102
Christian Yelich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .131 – wRC+: 128
Justin Bour – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .360 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .250 – wRC+: 128
Derek Dietrich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .240 – wRC+: 141
Secondary Plays:
Martin Prado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .305 – OBP: .324 – ISO: .092 – wRC+: 91
Philadelphia
Adam Conley has been pitching well enough that I’m not targeting any batters against him. He does allow some power to right-handed hitters if you want to take a shot in tournament and look for a home run.
Secondary Plays:
Darin Ruf – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .470 – OBP: .444 – ISO: .301 – wRC+: 203
Colorado at San Francisco – 3:05 PM EST
| Colorado | San Francisco | ||||||||
 | Christian Bergman |  | Matt Cain | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SFG (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.346 | 0.985 | 0.420 | 9.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.780 | 0.335 | 19.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.346 | 0.985 | 0.420 | 9.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.780 | 0.335 | 19.00% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Christian Bergman – Bergman has spent most of the season in the bullpen, and threw just 76 pitches and five innings in Tuesday’s start. It is unreasonable to expect any more than that, and he’s not good enough to be excited about even if he were able to pitch deeper into the game. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 65 – SIERA: 4.36 – ERA: 4.68 – K%: 13.6% – BB%: 5.2% – HR/9: 1.10
Salaries: $4,000 FD, $4,300 DK
Matt Cain – Cain is getting the start today, but is not likely to pitch more than two or three innings. He cannot be considered, as this will be a bullpen game for the Giants. Pitcher Rating – 1
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 55 – SIERA: 4.67 – ERA: 6.31 – K%: 15.9% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 1.94
Salaries: $5,900 FD, $7,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
We don’t really know who the Rockies will see for most of today’s game, but it probably won’t be Matt Cain. They may get a few innings of Yusmeiro Petit or Ryan Vogelsong, or it could be a parade of one-inning relievers. The top hitters make fine tournament plays, as they can hit off of anyone.
Elite Plays
Nolan Arenado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .319 – ISO: .320 – wRC+: 131
Carlos Gonzalez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .413 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .330 – wRC+: 148
Corey Dickerson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .402 – OBP: .351 – ISO: .273 – wRC+: 140
Charlie Blackmon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .359 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .179 – wRC+: 110
Secondary Plays:
San Francisco
Christian Bergman has big reverse splits, with numbers that look like they would come from a left-handed pitcher. For his career, he has allowed a .420 wOBA to right-handed batters with a 9.2% strikeout rate, and a .295 wOBA to left-handed batters with an 18.5% strikeout rate. Use the Giants right-handed batters first, but everyone can be considered, as Bergman is unlikely to pitch deep into the game and the Rockies have a weak bullpen.
Elite Plays
Buster Posey – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .363 – OBP: .385 – ISO: .145 – wRC+: 137
Matt Duffy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .147 – wRC+: 128
Secondary Plays:
Brandon Crawford – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .220 – wRC+: 123
Marlon Byrd – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .317 – OBP: .305 – ISO: .163 – wRC+: 102