MLB Grind Down: Sunday, October 9th


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs


LA Dodgers at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Washington
Article Image Rich Hill Article Image Tanner Roark
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD -115 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.232 0 23.9% 18.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.281 6 29.2% 18.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.244 4 29.8% 32.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.283 11 20.0% 21.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,600
FPPG: 39.2 FPPG: 21.6
Pitcher Rating: 90.8 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.0 2.59 2.22 34.3% 4.8% 10.9% 31.1% 41.0% 34.4%
2016 20 91.0 3.29 2.12 29.4% 7.5% 10.6% 45.3% 35.8% 28.3%
2015 4 108.5 2.29 1.55 34.0% 4.7% 11.3% 48.4% 35.5% 22.2%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 2.04 — K%: 27.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.242
Away (2015-16):ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.223

At the beginning of the season, it was hard to imagine that the Dodgers would have a southpaw with nearly as good of numbers as Clayton Kershaw. In 20 starts, Hill had a 2.12 ERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. The only knock on him is that he typically doesn’t pitch deep into games (91 pitches per start this season, 86 in his last five). He has been as effective on the road as he has been at home and he is listed as a small favorite today against the Nationals. The Dodgers are looking to head back to Los Angeles up 2-0 in the series.

Tanner Roark
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $9,000
FPPG: 33.5 FPPG: 17.4
Pitcher Rating: 69.8 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 94.8 4.59 2.60 23.2% 12.7% 10.0% 46.1% 32.6% 22.2%
2016 33 101.7 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 8.9% 48.7% 31.2% 24.3%
2015 12 150.0 4.16 4.38 15.0% 5.6% 7.1% 47.8% 30.6% 26.3%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.25 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.47 — K%: 16.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304

Roark had a career year, posting a 2.83 ERA with a strikeout rate of 20.1%. He has been a regression candidate all season though, as his peripheral statistics aren’t nearly as good. While he does get to pitch at home, he draws a difficult matchup against the Dodgers, who were ranked sixth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Roark comes in as the lowest ranked pitcher in this two-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers come into today’s game with the second-highest implied team total in the slate. While Tanner Roark has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA, he had a 4.85 xFIP against left-handed hitters. All of the lefties in this lineup are in play, as is Justin Turner, who loves playing in Nationals Park.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.334 0.152 38.8% 0.325 2B $2,900 2B $3,500
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.400 0.223 39.6% 0.277 SS $3,700 SS $4,500
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.385 0.258 37.2% 0.370 3B $3,600 3B $4,400
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.362 0.185 36.9% 0.335 1B $2,900 1B $3,800
5 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.371 0.163 32.8% 0.388 OF $2,800 OF $3,900
6 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.386 0.278 41.3% 0.446 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
7 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.351 0.268 39.7% 0.435 C $2,900 C $3,700
8 Andrew Toles LEFT 0.375 0.185 32.4% 0.227 OF $2,100 OF $2,400
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $9,000 P $9,600
Team Averages 0.329 0.190 33.2% 0.311

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington

The Nationals need to find a way to win this game or they will fall in an 0-2 hole against the Dodgers. Unfortunately, they draw the most difficult matchup in the slate. In the regular season, Rich Hill held both left and right-handed hitters under a .245 wOBA. Jayson Werth is on my radar in all formats, but the rest of the Nationals’ hitters are secondary plays at best.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.325 0.095 42.0% 0.341 OF $3,800 2B/OF $4,700
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.322 0.212 31.4% 0.281 OF $3,500 OF $3,800
3 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.432 0.298 46.3% 0.298 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.383 0.219 31.2% 0.000 2B $3,700 2B $4,200
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.355 0.143 34.9% 0.263 3B $3,100 3B $3,900
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.292 0.200 39.7% 0.329 1B $2,900 1B $3,400
7 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.297 0.261 40.7% 0.260 SS $2,800 SS $3,100
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.200 0.200 20.0% 0.323 C $2,300 C $3,000
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.129 0.071 16.7% 0.138 P $8,000 P $9,000
Team Averages 0.304 0.189 33.7% 0.248

Elite Plays – Jayson Werth

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at Boston – 4:05 PM ET

Cleveland Boston
Article Image Josh Tomlin Article Image Clay Buchholz
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -142 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.287 14 37.1% 15.6% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.342 6 35.8% 15.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.356 22 31.6% 16.8% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.300 15 26.8% 16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,400
FPPG: 25.9 FPPG: 12.8
Pitcher Rating: 53.7 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 87.8 4.59 1.69 10.1% 0.0% 7.7% 46.6% 31.8% 25.8%
2016 29 90.1 4.24 4.40 16.3% 2.8% 7.4% 43.8% 35.2% 34.1%
2015 10 94.9 3.46 3.02 22.7% 3.2% 9.4% 37.5% 46.2% 33.2%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.95 — K%: 18.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.322
Away (2015-16):ERA: 4.08 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.306

Tomlin has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on this season. He is a slow-throwing right-hander that gives up a lot of hard contact. In 29 starts during the regular season, he posted a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.3% and a hard contact rate of 34.1%. He draws a terrible matchup against the Red Sox, who are in a win-or-stay-home game at home. During the regular season, Boston led the majors in team wOBA and runs scored per game.

Clay Buchholz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 15.4 FPPG: 7.3
Pitcher Rating: 50.9 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 85.4 4.91 3.14 17.8% 8.5% 10.3% 38.8% 51.8% 36.1%
2016 21 106.0 5.09 4.78 15.8% 9.4% 9.5% 41.2% 43.0% 31.3%
2015 18 95.3 3.35 3.26 22.8% 4.9% 10.6% 48.3% 30.5% 23.7%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 4.68 — K%: 17.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.337
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.45 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.275

Buchholz had one of his worst seasons as a pro, posting a 5.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8%. He is listed as a sizable favorite today, but his matchup against the Indians is less than ideal. During the regular season, Cleveland was ranked tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. I like the potential run support for Buchholz, but there is a good chance that he doesn’t pitch deep enough into the game to even be eligible for the win.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are one game away from advancing to the ALCS, but they have a tough test ahead of them playing in Fenway. They draw a favorable matchup against Clay Buchholz, who has allowed a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.388 0.285 39.5% 0.526 1B $3,500 1B $4,900
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.353 0.200 38.9% 0.333 2B $3,700 2B $4,800
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.351 0.139 26.8% 0.320 SS $3,400 SS $4,700
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.338 0.242 34.9% 0.178 1B $3,300 1B $3,900
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.351 0.146 25.5% 0.398 3B $3,400 3B/OF $4,500
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.333 0.156 28.1% 0.197 OF $2,900 OF $3,500
7 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.309 0.175 24.6% 0.381 OF $2,900 OF $3,700
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.378 0.225 40.3% 0.282 OF $2,600 OF $3,600
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.247 0.087 25.9% 0.307 C $2,300 C $2,800
Team Averages 0.339 0.184 31.6% 0.325

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

This could be David Ortiz final major league baseball game. Let that sink in for a minute. Something tells me that the Red Sox aren’t going to go out that way though, as they were one of the best home teams in baseball during the regular season. I will be stacking the Red Sox in all formats today, as they square off against the hittable Josh Tomlin.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.358 0.136 33.1% 0.295 2B $3,300 2B $4,200
2 Brock Holt LEFT 0.329 0.147 25.5% 0.234 OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,400
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.388 0.208 33.0% 0.429 OF $4,200 OF $5,300
4 David Ortiz LEFT 0.435 0.350 46.2% 0.396 1B $4,300 1B $5,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.342 0.185 36.8% 0.295 1B $3,900 1B $3,800
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.340 0.146 29.7% 0.325 SS $3,600 SS $4,100
7 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.416 0.247 34.4% 0.329 OF $2,900 OF $3,000
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.329 0.141 34.1% 0.124 C $2,600 C $3,300
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.378 0.261 38.5% 0.268 OF $3,500 OF $4,000
Team Averages 0.368 0.202 34.6% 0.299

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Brock Holt, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at Toronto – 7:35 PM ET

Texas Toronto
Article Image Colby Lewis Article Image Aaron Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -190 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.295 8 37.3% 13.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.292 11 32.7% 21.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.302 11 36.7% 17.5% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.260 4 27.9% 19.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Colby Lewis
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 26.1 FPPG: 13.6
Pitcher Rating: 37.0 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 82.8 5.98 6.38 13.8% 10.3% 7.3% 25.0% 53.1% 36.9%
2016 19 92.1 4.95 3.71 15.5% 5.9% 8.0% 34.1% 47.4% 37.0%
2015 33 96.4 4.43 4.66 16.5% 4.9% 8.2% 33.7% 44.2% 33.3%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 4.89 — K%: 15.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.319
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.72 — K%: 16.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.302

It’s hard to believe that the Rangers’ playoff lives hinge on a start from Colby Lewis. They are a game away from being swept by the Blue Jays, who seem to have their number in the postseason (five straight wins). Lewis draws arguably the worst matchup in the slate and he has to face the Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. This is not the spot to get cute with your pitcher. Lewis is an easy fade in all formats.

Aaron Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $10,500
FPPG: 34.8 FPPG: 18.3
Pitcher Rating: 69.8 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 93.0 4.65 3.64 22.0% 11.4% 9.3% 40.0% 41.3% 39.5%
2016 30 97.3 4.01 3.00 20.4% 8.0% 8.2% 54.4% 25.1% 30.7%
2015 11 131.7 4.43 3.22 16.1% 11.6% 7.0% 60.6% 21.6% 21.0%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.32 — K%: 18.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.291
Away (2015-16):ERA: 2.85 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Sanchez was a lot better in the first half of the season, but he still finished the year with a 3.00 ERA and a strikeout rate of 20.4%. He is the largest favorite in the slate, but the total for the game is set at 9.0 runs. The Rangers need a win tonight or else they will be eliminated from the postseason, so we can expect their offense to show up here. Sanchez is my second favorite pitching target in the slate, but I have him quite a bit lower than Rich Hill.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers’ offense forgot to show up in the first two games of the series, but need a big performance tonight in order to keep their postseason hopes alive. They draw a decent matchup against Aaron Sanchez, who allowed a .292 wOBA to left-handed hitters during the regular season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.304 0.172 30.0% 0.426 OF $3,000 OF $3,000
2 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.326 0.160 30.5% 0.256 OF $3,600 OF $3,300
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.340 0.204 33.6% 0.291 OF $3,700 OF $3,400
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.357 0.207 33.9% 0.466 3B $3,200 3B $3,600
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.340 0.247 34.5% 0.237 2B $3,400 2B $3,600
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.371 0.195 33.1% 0.297 C $3,300 C $3,500
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.299 0.186 36.5% 0.095 1B $2,800 1B $2,800
8 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.335 0.133 26.2% 0.501 SS $2,800 SS $3,400
9 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.299 0.114 43.8% 0.146 OF $3,500 OF $3,200
Team Averages 0.330 0.180 33.6% 0.302

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gomez, Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the Rangers number and they have a chance to sweep the series with a win tonight at home. They come into this game with the highest implied team total in the slate, as they square off against the very hittable Colby Lewis. We can stack Toronto in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.282 0.102 25.5% 0.353 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.405 0.272 41.0% 0.395 3B $3,900 3B $5,400
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.370 0.264 37.5% 0.349 1B $4,100 1B $4,500
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.220 41.0% 0.443 OF $3,500 OF $5,100
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.325 0.173 29.9% 0.283 C $2,800 C $3,400
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.326 0.196 34.5% 0.290 SS $2,900 SS $4,600
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.335 0.205 38.6% 0.270 OF $2,600 OF $3,700
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.291 0.104 25.4% 0.326 OF $2,400 OF $3,300
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.284 0.099 25.8% 0.314 2B $2,000 2B/3B $2,900
Team Averages 0.331 0.182 33.2% 0.336

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious