MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 20 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-20 13:26:16

Seattle at Texas – 3:05 PM EST

Seattle					Texas
			Felix Hernandez					Derek Holland
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX (-120)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.213	0.59	0.263	0.229	SP vs. Left	0.27	0.614	0.27	0.203
SP vs. Right	0.217	0.616	0.273	0.285	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.698	0.301	0.169
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez – We need to accept that King Felix is just not the Cy Young level pitcher that we’ve come to expect. He is still very good, with the ability to post the occasional gem, but the numbers are what they are. His high ground ball rate is all that remains of his elite skill set, and his still strong walk rate is not enough to make up for his loss of strikeout ability. He is certainly a GPP option as he probably has another shutout or two left in his arm, but he is not worth his price in cash games. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 190 – SIERA: 3.30 – ERA: 3.55 – K%: 23.3% – BB%: 6.6% – HR/9: 0.99

Salaries: $11,000 FD, $10,900 DK

Derek Holland – Holland looked sharp in his first four starts off the DL, but has come back to earth allowing 10 runs in his last two starts. His control remains sharp with a low 4% walk rate, and that is going to give him a chance for success every time out. His 3.99 SIERA shows that we are looking at an average pitcher and not someone to be excited about. His 11 strikeout shutout against Baltimore three weeks ago should be viewed as the outlier, as he is much more a safe steady pitcher than a high-upside option. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 43 – SIERA: 3.99 – ERA: 3.77 – K%: 17.8% – BB%: 4.0% – HR/9: 1.26

Salaries: $9,500 FD, $7,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Derek Holland has been an average pitcher throughout his career against right-handed batters. He is not someone you generally want to stack against, but Seattle righties can be used in moderation. Nelson Cruz is an elite option against all left-handed pitchers.

Elite Plays

Nelson Cruz – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .459 – OBP: .426 – ISO: .318 – wRC+: 202
Franklin Gutierrez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .444 – OBP: .378 – ISO: .341 – wRC+: 192

Secondary Plays:

Mark Trumbo – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .315 – ISO: .210 – wRC+: 124
Ketel Marte – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .312 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .128 – wRC+: 101

Texas

Rangers bats cannot be used in cash games against Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has had enough bad starts this season that if you want to take a GPP shot on the Rangers left-handed bats, you should get low ownership with some upside, but it’s a low probability play.

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .412 – ISO: .154 – wRC+: 141
Shin-Soo Choo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .389 – OBP: .396 – ISO: .208 – wRC+: 144
Mitch Moreland – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .235 – wRC+: 137

Arizona at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST

Arizona					San Francisco
			Jeremy Hellickson					Tim Hudson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-140)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.251	0.72	0.314	0.184	SP vs. Left	0.288	0.771	0.338	0.104
SP vs. Right	0.278	0.826	0.356	0.196	SP vs. Right	0.257	0.681	0.297	0.179
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson has shown flashes of putting things together but doesn’t have enough upside to warrant playing in a matchup against a tough Giants team. He is basically a league average pitcher who is going to be at the mercy of his defense, BABIP and the team he’s facing. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 130 – SIERA: 4.16 – ERA: 4.78 – K%: 19.0% – BB%: 6.8% – HR/9: 1.38

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,400 DK

Tim Hudson – The fact that Hudson is still pitching in the major leagues deserves our utmost respect. He has learned how to pitch with underwhelming stuff and keep his team in games more often than not. While that is all wonderful, there is no justification at all for considering using him. He doesn’t get strikeouts, and he is unlikely to pitch deep into the game. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 114 – SIERA: 4.22 – ERA: 4.42 – K%: 12.5% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 1.03

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $5,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

While Tim Hudson is a smart pitcher and gets a good ground ball rate, his stuff is so underwhelming, especially against left-handed batters that he can play against aggressively. He has allowed a .351 wOBA to lefties with a terribly low 6.6% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.

Elite Plays:

David Peralta – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .218 – wRC+: 140
Paul Goldschmidt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .425 – ISO: .225 – wRC+: 149
Ender Inciarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .110 – wRC+: 112

Secondary Plays:

Jake Lamb – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .144 – wRC+:105
A.J. Pollock – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .179 – wRC+: 127

San Francisco

Jeremy Hellickson can be hit by both right and left-handed batters. He has allowed a .346 wOBA with a 16.3% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 34.3% hard contact rate to lefties. He also allows a high 35% hard contact rate to right-handed batters.

Elite Plays:

Buster Posey – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .370 – OBP: .397 – ISO: .144 – wRC+: 142

Secondary Plays:

Brandon Crawford – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .222 – wRC+:119
Marlon Byrd – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .283 – ISO: .210 – wRC+: 96
Matt Duffy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .142 – wRC+: 128
Alejandro De Aza – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .177 – wRC+: 114

Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers – 4:10 PM EST

Pittsburgh					LA Dodgers
			Gerrit Cole					Mike Bolsinger
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-105)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.655	0.293	0.233	SP vs. Left	0.292	0.774	0.34	0.176
SP vs. Right	0.243	0.65	0.287	0.251	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.694	0.302	0.231
Batter Splits			PIT vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole – I remain slightly worried about Cole wearing down as the season moves on. He has surpassed his career high in innings pitched, but his numbers over the past month are extremely close to his season long numbers, and he has put up 15 strikeouts in his last two starts, so perhaps there is no cause for concern. The Dodgers have not been hitting well, sitting at 26th in the league in scoring over the past month with a 22.4% strikeout rate, so there is some upside here for Cole. While I am personally not going to be using him much today, I can’t really find any reason not to recommend him as an option. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 187 – SIERA: 3.24 – ERA: 2.60 – K%: 24.3% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 0.43

Salaries: $9,600 FD, $11,100 DK

Mike Bolsinger – Bolsinger will get another start today for the Dodgers. He has respectable numbers this season with a 53.7% ground ball rate to go along with his slightly above average strikeout rate. He has not pitched deep into games very often which limits his value, and he looked rocky in his last start at Arizona with four walks and just one strikeout in 3 innings pitched. He seems likely to pitch a decent game, but it will be hard for him to be a winning piece of your roster if he only pitches five innings. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 97 – SIERA: 3.97 – ERA: 3.13 – K%: 21.0% – BB%: 9.1% – HR/9: 0.46

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Mike Bolsinger is not an easy pitcher to figure out how to attack. He has a strong 23.8% strikeout rate to right-handed batters, and while that number drops to 17.2% against lefties, it comes with a 61% ground ball rate that makes it tough to look for extra base hits. I am going to simply stay away from this game.

Secondary Plays:

LA Dodgers

While I have some slight concerns with Gerrit Cole at his price, he is certainly not a pitcher I want to play against. He has allowed just a .268 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .282 wOBA to right-handed batters.

Secondary Plays:

San Diego at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST

San Diego					Colorado
			James Shields					Kyle Kendrick
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (-120)					11
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.77	0.336	0.196	SP vs. Left	0.294	0.886	0.381	0.15
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.694	0.303	0.242	SP vs. Right	0.269	0.775	0.338	0.119
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields – Shields came out of the gate on fire this season with elite strikeout numbers in the early going. However, his strikeout numbers have been dropping steadily while his walk rate is up to 12.5% over the past month. While he certainly still has that elite strikeout ability in him, he comes with an incredible amount of risk pitching at Coors Field with his home run troubles and recent loss of control. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 189 – SIERA: 3.70 – ERA: 3.80 – K%: 24.9% – BB%: 9.1% – HR/9: 1.38

Salaries: $8,700 FD, $7,200 DK

Kyle Kendrick – It is remarkable to me that this guy is still a starting major league pitcher. He seems to just squeak by with enough five inning, three run starts that he keeps his job. His 5.10 SIERA is the third-worst mark in the league of any pitcher with over 100 innings. I shouldn’t need to tell you this, but don’t put him on your roster. Pitcher Rating – 1
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 127 – SIERA: 5.10 – ERA: 6.15 – K%: 12.2% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 1.98

Salaries: $4,800 FD, $4,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

You need to have Padres bats in your cash game lineups today, as they face one of the league’s worst pitchers in the best hitter’s park. Kyle Kendrick is allowing a .411 wOBA to left-handed batters with a 13.3% strikeout rate and a .366 wOBA to right-handed batters with an 11.3% strikeout rate.

Elite Plays

Justin Upton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .370 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .233 – wRC+: 139
Matt Kemp – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .304 – ISO: .166 – wRC+: 101
Wil Myers – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .307 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 119
Yangervis Solarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .160 – wRC+: 114

Secondary Plays:

Brett Wallace – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .434 – OBP: .393 – ISO: .294 – wRC+: 183
Derek Norris – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .290 – OBP: .278 – ISO: .157 – wRC+: 85
“(player-popup)Melvin Upton Jr – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .308 – OBP: .287 – ISO: .190 – wRC+: 97

Colorado

While a lot of it is due to a high HR/FB rate, James Shields is allowing a .369 wOBA to left-handed batters. Coors Field is not the place you go to look for a positive regression, and the Rockies bats, starting with the lefties, can be loaded up today, especially in tournaments.

Elite Plays

Carlos Gonzalez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .411 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .335 – wRC+: 146
Charlie Blackmon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .359 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .173 – wRC+: 110
Nolan Arenado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .396 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .327 – wRC+: 136
Corey Dickerson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .230 – wRC+: 122

Secondary Plays:

Jose Reyes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .308 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .103 – wRC+: 87
Justin Morneau – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .160 – wRC+: 94

NY Yankees at NY Mets – 8:10 PM EST

NY Yankees					NY Mets
			CC Sabathia					Matt Harvey
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-150)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.189	0.548	0.245	0.279	SP vs. Left	0.224	0.698	0.303	0.241
SP vs. Right	0.308	0.878	0.378	0.183	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.553	0.241	0.238
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia – Sabathia is a bit of a mystery. It sort of feels like he is finished and he can get hit incredibly hard by right-handed batters, but then he throws some solid starts, and his peripherals are really not bad at all. He looks like a league average pitcher from the strikeout to walk ratio and SIERA. While I don’t think he’s as bad as his reputation at this point, you certainly can’t use him against the Mets offense with the way they have been hitting over the past month. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 149 – SIERA: 4.03 – ERA: 4.94 – K%: 19.1% – BB%: 6.5% – HR/9: 1.56

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,300 DK

Matt Harvey – After allowing seven runs to Washington, Harvey was skipped his last time through the rotation and looks to be limited to five or maybe six innings in this start against the Yankees. While it’s probably the right move for the Mets to limit his innings, it takes away any value he may have had for us. A pitch count combined with a difficult Yankees lineups makes him easy to avoid tonight. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 171 – SIERA: 3.37 – ERA: 2.88 – K%: 23.9% – BB%: 5.3% – HR/9: 0.94

Salaries: $10,400 FD, $11,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Yankees batters could be an interesting tournament play, as nobody is going to get excited about starting hitters against Matt Harvey. However, as I mentioned, they are unlikely to see more than five innings of Harvey before getting a shot at the Mets bullpen. In addition, Harvey does give up a fair amount of fly balls and hard contact to left-handed batters, giving some upside to the Yankees power bats.

Secondary Plays:

Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .324 – ISO: .222 – wRC+: 111
Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .342 – ISO: .159 – wRC+: 109
Carlos Beltran – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .188 – wRC+: 122

NY Mets

Sabathia has elite numbers against left-handed batters, but a rough .370 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters. The Mets righties are core plays today, and if you think they can knock Sabathia out of the game early, then some left-handed bats could make for sneaky low owned tournament plays against the bullpen.

Elite Plays

Travis d’Arnaud – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .511 – OBP: .439 – ISO: .405 – wRC+: 236
David Wright – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .492 – OBP: .469 – ISO: .276 – wRC+: 223
Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .304 – OBP: .283 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 93

Secondary Plays:

Wilmer Flores – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .408 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .296 – wRC+: 166
Juan Uribe – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .375 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .243 – wRC+: 143
Juan Lagares – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .175 – wRC+: 121

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