MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 1st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Minnesota at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM EST
| Minnesota | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Trevor May |  | Johnny Cueto | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-187) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.799 | 0.350 | 20.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.188 | 0.551 | 0.250 | 24.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.295 | 0.000 | 0.363 | 20.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.200 | 0.615 | 0.272 | 25.00% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Trevor May : FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 119.2 — SIERA: 3.86 — K%: 20.5% — BB%: 7.0% — FB Rate: 39.7% — HR/FB: 9.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.1 — SIERA: 3.48 — K%: 22.9% — BB%: 5.7% — FB Rate: 38.9% — HR/FB: 10.7%
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 23)
Analysis: May is a pitcher whose peripheral statistics look much better than his ERA. Since the start of 2014, his SIERA is nearly two full runs lower than his ERA. During that stretch, he has struck out 20.5% of the batters that he has faced, while walking only 7.0% of hitters. His career BABIP is over .360, which means that he should be in for some positive regression in the near future. Unfortunately, it may take a while for that regression to happen. He can safely be avoided today against the Reds, who are ranked above the major league average in wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating: 58.4
Johnny Cueto : FD: $10,400 — DK: $10,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 340.1 — SIERA: 3.17 — K%: 24.9% — BB%: 6.3% — FB Rate: 35.2% — HR/FB: 10.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.1 — SIERA: 3.16 — K%: 25.2% — BB%: 5.5% — FB Rate: 36.9% — HR/FB: 12.9%
Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Cueto has pitched well through his injury, posting a 3.16 SIERA with a high strikeout rate of 25.2% over the last month of play. He is looking to have a little more success against the Twins than the other Reds’ starters in this series. On paper, this is a favorable matchup, as the Twins are ranked 23rd in wOBA (.297) and 19th in strikeout rate (20.0%) against right-handed pitching this season. Cueto is the top pitching option on the board today, and that includes both afternoon and evening games.
Pitcher Rating:94.0
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins’ offense has had some great success in this series, but it will likely come to a screeching halt today. Over the last two seasons, Johnny Cueto has held left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA. The Twins come in with one of the lowest team totals on the board. They should be avoided in all league formats.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
NONE
Cincinnati
The Reds seem to either have a big offensive outing and score eight runs or be held to a few hits and only score one or two runs. Today feels like a day where they could score closer to the former than the latter. Trevor May has given up a .350+ wOBA to left and right-handed hitters since the start of last season. Joey Votto is the top play in this matchup, but don’t rule out Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce.
Elite Plays:
Joey Votto : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 427 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.178 — wRC+: 135
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 88
Secondary Plays:
Todd Frazier : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 757 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.228 — wRC+: 136
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.411 — wRC+: 173
Jay Bruce : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 626 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 93
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.482 — ISO: 0.326 — wRC+: 211
Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Rick Porcello |  | Mark Buehrle | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-137) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.747 | 0.326 | 15.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.758 | 0.332 | 13.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.715 | 0.315 | 17.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.280 | 0.736 | 0.321 | 13.30% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rick Porcello : FD: $7,400 — DK: $5,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 297.1 — SIERA: 3.92 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 5.1% — FB Rate: 31.0% — HR/FB: 10.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.2 — SIERA: 3.74 — K%: 16.9% — BB%: 3.1% — FB Rate: 30.6% — HR/FB: 6.7%
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Porcello is having another Porcello-like season. He has a SIERA just under 4.00 with a strikeout rate that is below the major league average. He doesn’t walk a ton of batters, but he’s not particularly efficient against hitters from either side of the plate. He draws a tough matchup today against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Toronto is ranked fourth in wOBA (.327) against right-handed pitching this season and this game easily has the highest run total in the early slate.
Pitcher Rating:48.6
Mark Buehrle : FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 301.1 — SIERA: 4.37 — K%: 13.3% — BB%: 5.2% — FB Rate: 33.3% — HR/FB: 8.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 3.71 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 4.3% — FB Rate: 25.2% — HR/FB: 10.7%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.352 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 9)
Pitchers per PA: 3.96 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Buehrle will have quality starts here and there, but they usually aren’t accompanied with a lot of strikeouts. He has one of the lowest strikeouts of any qualified starter. Since the start of last season, he has only struck out 13.3% of the batters that he has faced. That severely limits his upside, especially when he faces a team like the Red Sox that doesn’t strike out often. This is a game to target both offenses, while both pitchers should be avoided like the plague.
Pitcher Rating:49.1
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox have one of the highest team totals in the early slate of games, right behind the Blue Jays and A’s. They draw a favorable matchup against Mark Buehrle, who isn’t all that effective against hitters from either side of the plate. The left and right-handed bats from the Red Sox are in play today in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
Elite Plays:
Hanley Ramirez : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 194 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 26 — wOBA: 0.459 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 198
Mookie Betts : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 135 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 105
Last 14 Days: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.468 — ISO: 0.309 — wRC+: 204
Xander Bogaerts : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 244 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.158 — wRC+: 113
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 107
Secondary Plays:
David Ortiz : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 277 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 88
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 104
Mike Napoli : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 215 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 151
Last 14 Days: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 114
Toronto
As mentioned above, the Blue Jays have the highest team total in the early slate of games. They hit right-handed pitching well as a team and they are always a force to be reckoned with at home. Rick Porcello has given up a .315 wOBA to left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons, which puts hitters from both sides of the plate in play here.
Elite Plays:
Jose Reyes : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 644 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.116 — wRC+: 102
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.245 — ISO: 0.113 — wRC+: 49
Secondary Plays:
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,700 — DK: $5,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 783 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.238 — wRC+: 145
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 119
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 680 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 139
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 141
Russell Martin : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 578 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 138
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.266 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 64
Colorado at Oakland – 3:35 PM EST
| Colorado | Oakland | ||||||||
 | Chad Bettis |  | Jesse Hahn | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-175) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.731 | 0.323 | 16.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.701 | 0.310 | 17.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.306 | 0.866 | 0.376 | 16.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.191 | 0.542 | 0.253 | 19.90% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chad Bettis : FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,300
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 80.1 — SIERA: 4.07 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 7.5% — FB Rate: 29.3% — HR/FB: 10.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 4.01 — K%: 19.4% — BB%: 8.9% — FB Rate: 26.4% — HR/FB: 17.4%
Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 14.9% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Bettis hasn’t been nearly as bad as some of his fellow Rockies’ starters this season. Over the last month, he has a 4.01 SIERA with a 19.4% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, that’s not enough to persuade us to target him against an A’s offense that is ranked 11th or better in every offensive category listed above. Oakland hits right-handed pitching well, they don’t strike out often, and they take a ton of pitches with each and every at-bat. Bettis is a large underdog that should be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:46.2
Jesse Hahn : FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 164.0 — SIERA: 3.82 — K%: 18.6% — BB%: 8.0% — FB Rate: 24.4% — HR/FB: 7.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 4.29 — K%: 13.7% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 23.7% — HR/FB: 8.7%
Colorado Rockies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.353 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 21)
Analysis: If you are playing in the early slate of games, let me break down the pitching options really quick. For single pitcher sites such as FanDuel, Johnny Cueto is your guy. Lock him into your lineups. On multi-pitcher sites such as DraftKings, it’s Mr. Cueto as your SP1 and then either Jesse Hahn or a pitcher from Petco as your SP2. Hahn hasn’t been very sharp in his recent outings, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13.7%. He is a large favorite today though (-175), and he gets to face the Rockies away from Coors Field.
Pitcher Rating:63.1
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Jesse Hahn has been very tough on right-handed hitters in his career, holding them to a .253 wOBA. That really hurts the appeal of Nolan Arenado, Troy Tulowitzki, and DJ LeMahieu. Hahn has given up a .310 wOBA to left-handed hitters though, so if you are looking to target some Rockies’ bats, target the ones that can hit from the left side of the plate.
Elite Plays:
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Charlie Blackmon : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 732 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 116
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.260 — wRC+: 160
Carlos Gonzalez : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 401 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 103
Last 14 Days: PA: 41 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.316 — wRC+: 116
Oakland
Even though Chad Bettis is having a decent season, his handedness splits are nothing to write home about. He has given up a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .376 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The A’s hit right-handed pitching well as a team and they should bounce back nicely, after being held to a single run in last night’s loss.
Elite Plays:
Stephen Vogt : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 460 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.193 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.156 — wRC+: 183
Josh Reddick : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 513 — wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 150
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.214 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: 33
Secondary Plays:
Billy Burns : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 167 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 110
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 145
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 614 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 110
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.311 — wRC+: 182
Seattle at San Diego – 3:40 PM EST
| Seattle | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Taijuan Walker |  | James Shields | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-114) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.714 | 0.316 | 22.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.757 | 0.332 | 20.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.735 | 0.324 | 21.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.712 | 0.311 | 23.80% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Taijuan Walker : FD: $7,800 — DK: $9,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 123.1 — SIERA: 3.76 — K%: 22.1% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 35.3% — HR/FB: 11.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 2.74 — K%: 26.3% — BB%: 2.2% — FB Rate: 38.5% — HR/FB: 13.5%
San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 26)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 24.8% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Walker is my favorite tournament play in the early slate of games. He has been terrific over the last month, posting a 2.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.3%. What is most impressive during that stretch is that he has managed to walk only 2.2% of the batters that he has faced. He has always had ace-caliber type of pitches and we are finally starting to see it translate into success at the major league level. He draws a terrific matchup against a strikeout-prone Padres’ offense that is ranked 26th in wOBA (.293) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:77.0
James Shields : FD: $9,200 — DK: $10,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 324.2 — SIERA: 3.42 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 5.5% — FB Rate: 34.3% — HR/FB: 12.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 3.87 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 9.4% — FB Rate: 26.2% — HR/FB: 4.5%
Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.262 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: After getting off to a blazing start this season, Shields has cooled off over the last month, posting a 3.87 SIERA with a much more realistic strikeout rate of 21.9%. His walk rate has skyrocketed during that stretch, which would be a concern if he wasn’t facing a Mariners’ offense that is ranked near the bottom of the major league in wOBA (.288) and strikeout rate (22.5%) against right-handed pitching. The main concern here is that Shields has given up a .332 wOBA to left-handed hitters and this Mariners’ lineup is chock full of lefties.
Pitcher Rating:80.2
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
The Mariners have struggled to score runs all season, but this matchup may not be as bad as it appears on paper. James Shields gives up a high wOBA to left-handed hitters and the Mariners should be able to throw seven or eight right-handed bats at him today. The pitcher-friendly ballpark obviously doesn’t help, but Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano are both decent secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Kyle Seager : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 644 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.225 — ISO: 0.077 — wRC+: 41
Robinson Cano : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 643 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 129
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 107
San Diego
This is an interesting matchup, as the Padres are facing an inconsistent pitcher that has been in great form, while the Mariners are facing a consistent pitcher that is in bad form. Taijuan Walker has given up a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons, but he’s improved that number over the last month. Matt Kemp is really the only fantasy option of note here and he is a secondary option in the outfield.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Matt Kemp : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 696 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 125
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.313 — wRC+: 132
Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Texas | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Nick Martinez |  | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-185) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.759 | 0.335 | 12.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.674 | 0.297 | 17.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.284 | 0.806 | 0.351 | 13.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.742 | 0.323 | 19.10% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Nick Martinez : FD: $6,400 — DK: $4,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 230.2 — SIERA: 5.07 — K%: 12.8% — BB%: 8.7% — FB Rate: 41.8% — HR/FB: 8.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 5.23 — K%: 12.6% — BB%: 10.4% — FB Rate: 32.3% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.366 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 12)
Analysis: Martinez is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. Since the start of the 2014 season, he owns a 5.07 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 12.8%. If that wasn’t bad enough, he now has to face a red-hot Orioles’ offense in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Baltimore is ranked seventh in wOBA (.323) against right-handed pitching and second in wOBA (.366) over the last 14 days. Avoid, avoid, avoid.
Pitcher Rating:31.8
Wei-Yin Chen : FD: $7,800 — DK: $8,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 272.2 — SIERA: 3.79 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 5.0% — FB Rate: 38.5% — HR/FB: 11.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.1 — SIERA: 2.88 — K%: 28.0% — BB%: 6.0% — FB Rate: 32.8% — HR/FB: 14.3%
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 26.6% (Rank: 29)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Chen has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 2.88 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 28.0%. He’s typically not a pitcher that stands out as a great fantasy option, but he’s worth a look tonight. The Rangers have not hit left-handed pitching well this season, ranking 23rd in wOBA (.301) and 28th in strikeout rate (24.1%). He’s a large favorite tonight and his price is sitting at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pitcher Rating:79.1
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers right-handed hitters are in play tonight against Wei-Yin Chen, who has given up a .323 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate. Even though Wei-Yin Chen has pitched well recently, this is still a decent matchup for the Rangers in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Elite Plays:
Adrian Beltre : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 236 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.193 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 30 — wOBA: 0.219 — ISO: 0.034 — wRC+: 28
Secondary Plays:
Robinson Chirinos : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 165 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 108
Last 14 Days: PA: 34 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.241 — wRC+: 124
Baltimore
The Orioles’ offense has been red-hot over the last two weeks and they should be able to keep it going tonight against Nick Martinez, who only strikes out one batter in every eight that he faces. Since the start of last season, Martinez has given up a .331+ wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate. Load up on the O’s in both cash games and tournaments.
Elite Plays:
Manny Machado : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 508 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 135
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.273 — wRC+: 199
Chris Davis : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 588 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 103
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.229 — wRC+: 130
Adam Jones : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 733 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 100
Last 14 Days: PA: 17 — wOBA: 0.198 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 17
Secondary Plays:
Jimmy Paredes : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 254 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 138
Last 14 Days: PA: 36 — wOBA: 0.534 — ISO: 0.375 — wRC+: 251
Chris Parmelee : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 227 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 96
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.449 — ISO: 0.419 — wRC+: 193