NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 4

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With nearly a month of the season in the books, we are staring at what should be the lowest-scoring week yet. The Packers and Eagles are on bye, and the game with the second-highest projected total is off the main slate and being played in London. The Saints and Chargers face off in the only contest with a total north of 50.

The matchup with the most hidden fantasy goodness has the Lions in Chicago, and as I looked at this week in Snaps and Pace (subscription required), both sides should enjoy elevated play volume. Similar to how the Week 3 Lions and Packers game lent itself to stacking, this week’s matchup has the same appeal. Value running backs Dwayne Washington and Jordan Howard, while highly-owned, widen our lineup-diversifying options.

Keep an eye on Marvin Jones’ injury status. Golden Tate has disappointed, but his seven-target average will rise, even if his aDOT (average depth of target) doesn’t. Last season’s leading receiver in generating missed tackles will match up with Jacoby Glenn, who’s tied for the fourth-most missed tackles while in coverage. Stacking Tate with Matthew Stafford and Eric Ebron (or Zach Miller) is only one combination in play here.

While appealing matchups exist in every game, there looks to be fewer high-scoring contests this week. Do not run away from the top options simply because they’re chalk, as high ownership can be mitigated by unique lineup construction. Leveraging games with moderate totals, but potentially high snap volume, is an excellent way to accomplish this.

Here are some Week 4 FanDuel tournament plays. Good luck everyone.

QB Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers, $8,400

Roethlisberger does not have a strong paper matchup against a Chiefs team allowing the second-fewest points to quarterbacks and who, last week, picked everything off Ryan Fitzpatrick except his beard. Yet, they were more beatable in Houston two weeks ago, and Roethlisberger is light years better than Brock Osweiler – especially when playing in Pittsburgh. The Steelers play faster at home, Roethlisberger has thrived both during games in Pittsburgh and while using the no-huddle, and he gets Le’Veon Bell back to boost an offense with a top-five implied total.

Despite some high-end games, Roethlisberger was bad against blitzes and pressure last season. He had a 76.8 passer rating and 6.4 yards-per-attempt when blitzed, versus a 99.9 rating and 9.0 yards-per-attempt on his other throws. This year, his 104.6 passer rating when not pressured dwarfs his 32.2 mark when feeling heat. Fortunately, the Chiefs have an NFL-low 15.8-percent blitz rate, our 28th-graded pass rush, and Tamba Hali is essentially their one defender who consistently gets after the quarterback. As strong as Kansas City’s pass coverage is, Roethlisberger will have time to pick it apart.

QB Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals, $8,000

There’s no way around it — Palmer was bad in Buffalo. He was our 32nd-graded quarterback out of 33 qualifiers, behind only Fitzpatrick. It came a week after the Amish Rifle ignited a Bills bonfire on national television, and nearly everyone is asking what’s wrong with the Cardinals instead of looking forward to them getting right. They blasted the Bucs in Week 2 after an opening night embarrassment courtesy of the better-than-we-thought-then Patriots, and are back home with a top-seven implied total against a team with stronger run-stopping than pass coverage.

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The Rams have our sixth-highest-graded run defense and are allowing 3.4 yards per carry (sixth-lowest). David Johnson probably could give the ’85 Bears fits, but Bruce Arians isn’t going to aim a game plan down the path of most resistance. Palmer averaged 354 passing yards and threw three touchdowns against the Rams last year, and his most productive receiver – 6-foot-3, 218-pound Larry Fitzgerald – will work against 5-foot-8, 184-pound slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner. Michael Floyd and John Brown are both trending up, health-wise, while Johnson ranks sixth among running backs in targets and third in receiving yards.

RB Lamar Miller – Houston Texans, $8,200

It is not often we can get an elite running back as a near-touchdown home-favorite at moderate ownership. Yet, that’s the spot Miller finds himself in. There will be more attention paid to high-end running backs either coming back from suspension (Le’Veon Bell; $8,300), or coming off of a breakout game for a plus-matchup (Ezekiel Elliott at San Francisco; $8,100) – not to mention the Texans’ passing game is in a juicy spot against our third-worst-graded pass coverage unit. Miller’s 3.6 yards per carry average and zero a touchdowns should also keep his ownership low.

The Titans so far have a reputation as tough on running backs, in large part because they held an aged Adrian Peterson down while Shaun Hill wasn’t threatening the secondary. In their other two games, Tennessee allowed 5.2 yards per carry to running backs. Their 18th-graded run defense will not have the luxury of a loaded box, as DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller will stretch the defense horizontally and vertically. With nine days between the Texans and their embarrassment in Foxborough, the NFL’s rushing attempt leader (74) is well-rested and well-positioned to crush early-season doubters.

RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $7,500

After being cheap for so long – and absent from last week’s weekend slate – paying this much for Blount feels extravagant. Only $100 cheaper than Melvin Gordon and $200 more expensive than DeMarco Murray, Blount will not be heavily owned despite being tied for the league lead in handoffs (74) and rushing touchdowns (four). The Patriots are a home favorite, which usually means a Blount game is coming. Without Tom Brady and down to their third-string rookie quarterback, New England is out of other options anyway.

Rob Gronkowski returned last week and earned the sixth-best run-blocking grade among tight ends – tied with Martellus Bennett — despite only playing 14 snaps. The offensive line is getting healthier and the Patriots’ run-blocking grade has increased each game. The Bills will not be pushovers on the ground, but few thought the Texans run defenders were going to get road-graded to the tune of 4.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns on 39 attempts. Buffalo is traveling after a highly-emotional upset of the Cardinals and will face a Patriots team on extra rest.

RB Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints, $6,800

Despite being priced as the 17th-most-expensive running back, Ingram is a tournament play only. While he saw season-highs with 16 carries and six targets last week, it came during a Superdome shootout. Last season he averaged 17.2 carries and 4.3 targets in home games, versus 10.5 carries and 5.2 targets on the road. Of course, he averaged 6.4 yards per attempt with 4.2 coming after contact, and had an 89.8 Elusive Rating on the road, compared with a 3.6 yards-per-attempt, 2.1 yards-after-contact, and an 39.1 Elusive Rating at home.

The Chargers run defense grades 20th-best, they allow 4.4 yards per carry, and they gave up a monster day to Spencer Ware and a strong performance by Frank Gore. San Diego allows the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, and the second-most receptions (nine per game). Ingram’s five-target average over the last two games is in line with his 4.8 mark from 2015. While Ingram will be far from forgotten, the first place DFS players will invest in this game is the passing offenses, especially with the Saints. Ingram has the better matchup against a Chargers team that defends non-running-back-passes better than they stop the run.

RB Duke Johnson – Cleveland Browns, $5,400

Isaiah Crowell makes for a sharp leverage play in the unlikely even the touchdown-plus-underdog Browns hang in a road game against a team that finally saw things click a week ago. Johnson offers access to viability in both scenarios — with big-play upside from there – at a $1,200 savings. He will also be far lower-owned, which is nice. Johnson played only one fewer snap than Crowell last week. He got 10 carries to Crowell’s 15, and ran for 69 yards while his running mate gained 79. Johnson was also the Browns second-most-targeted player with six looks.

While it’s clear we’d rather have 10 carries and five catches, instead of 15 handoffs, Johnson’s workload is not bankable. His targets have increased in each game so far, but the carries jumped way up from three. He is not a cash game play, despite the light price tag. However, last week is the only real sample we have with Cody Kessler at quarterback. In a game with some back-and-forth potential, against a Redskins defense allowing the fourth-most points to running backs (and the seventh-most passing targets), Johnson is the more likely of Cleveland’s running backs to blow up.

WR Alshon Jeffery – Chicago Bears, $8,200

In a matchup with a top-five-and-rising projected total, and as the Alpha receiver on a team that’s showed zero ability to run the ball (30th-graded rushing offense), Jeffery is well-positioned to remind everyone of his dominance. He doesn’t need to remind the Lions, against whom he’s averaged 12.3 targets, 7.7 catches and 96.7 yards, while scoring four times in their last three meetings. Detroit currently grades 27th in pass coverage, and their pass rush – now without top pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah – grades dead last.

The thing keeping his ownership down, even though Jeffery is Chicago’s Alpha receiver, is he hasn’t been targeted like it. Kevin White, who is essentially a rookie due to missing all of 2015, has five more targets than Jeffery. He has 139 fewer yards and zero touchdowns on one fewer catch. It is only a matter of time until Jeffery, who has been limited by a knee injury, gets the target load he is accustomed to. In a matchup with an up-tempo, pass-leaning opponent, snaps and targets should be plentiful for both sides.

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WR Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks, $7,400

Targeting a game with the one of the lowest projected totals on the slate is not exciting. However, eliminating several methods for scoring the 41.5 projected points — 22.3-point implied total for the Seahawks – helps get us interested in Baldwin. Seattle will struggle to run the ball with their league-worst-graded run blocking against the NFL’s best defensive line. If the Seahawks get out to a lead, they won’t be salting it away against a defense allowing 3.3 yards per carry, no matter how well an awakened Christine Michael is running.

Baldwin has seen 10 targets in two of his three games, is the eighth-highest-scoring receiver, and will be matched up with Buster Skrine. The slot cornerback has played well thus far, but graded negatively in coverage every season of his six-year career. With stiffer coverage on the outside and Russell Wilson’s mobility limited by multiple leg injuries, he will frequently look for his top passing game option. The Jets will not consistently move the ball on the ground either, potentially injecting additional play volume for both sides via the pass. Baldwin may seem boring, but it just makes him a lightly-owned offensive focal point.

WR DeSean Jackson – Washington Redskins, $6,900

Despite producing 96 yards and a touchdown on five catches against the Giants last week, Jackson should be palatably owned. Teammate Jamison Crowder is the apple of everyone’s eye and is tied as the 45th-most-expensive wideout (Jackson is 23rd). The veteran is priced the same as Emmanuel Sanders and more expensive than Mike Wallace and Will Fuller – whose profiles resemble Jackson’s. Fuller’s point production on six more targets is the same as Jackson’s, while Wallace’s three touchdowns are more than the difference between them.

Washington’s 27.8-point implied total is the second-highest on the slate and they face a Browns defense that’s tied for the third-most passing plays of 15-plus yards allowed (24). Jackson has a 15-yard aDOT. None of Washington’s other main pass-catchers have double-digit aDOTs. Cleveland may again be without top cornerback Joe Haden and while he is not the cover man he once was, the rest of the Browns’ secondary is sub-par, to be kind. Without Haden’s grade, they would rank 26th in coverage. Cleveland’s run defense has been steady (14th-best grade; 3.9 yards per carry allowed) and Washington’s running game is not their strength.

WR Michael Crabtree – Oakland Raiders, $6,500

Although he’s not a sexy name, Crabtree has been heavily involved in our second-highest-graded passing game, and his 11 targets tied for the seventh-most among wideouts last week. He has cracked 85 yards or scored a touchdown in each game so far this season, and will again be relied upon with the Ravens defense deploying our second-highest-graded run defense. With both offenses projected to struggle running the ball, another double-digit target load in an elevated-tempo game for our sixth-highest-graded wide receiver is well within his range of outcomes.

The Ravens haven’t given up a ton of production to wideouts (24th-most points allowed), but they surrendered two-touchdown games to Corey Coleman and Allen Robinson over the last two weeks. Crabtree will primarily be marked by frequent burn-victim Shareece Wright, whose coverage grade ranks 93rd out of 104 cornerbacks and gave up three of the aforementioned four touchdowns. Amari Cooper will attract more ownership at a higher price point and tangles with Ravens’ top cornerback Jimmy Smith. Riding Crabtree against “Char-eece” Wright is the sharper play.

TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,500

In a game with sneaky shootout potential and likely high pass volume, Kelce will play a pivotal role for the underdog Chiefs. Despite Spencer Ware’s impressive performance thus far, the Chiefs’ running game grades 27th, their run blocking ranks 29th, and the sledding will be tough against a defense allowing 3.8 yards per carry. Kelce has seen seven targets in each game, ranks third in catches and second in yards among tight ends, and he found the endzone in Week 3 for the first time this season.

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The Steelers are allowing the fifth-most catches to tight ends (6.3 per game), but none have found paydirt – suppressing their fantasy-points-against average (15th-most). If they continue to see tight ends targeted at an NFL-high 11.3 per-game clip, it’s only a matter of time before the touchdowns come. Pittsburgh has four linebackers who rank in or are tied for bottom-10 “honors” in tackling efficiency, and Ryan Shazier — questionable with a knee injury — has allowed the second-most catches out of 53 inside linebackers. Kelce is tied for sixth among tight ends in forced missed tackles, a year after tying for first.

TE Hunter Henry – San Diego Chargers, $4,500

Are the Saints good at stopping tight ends, as their fifth-fewest points allowed to the position would indicate? After all, they did allow the most points to tight ends last season. Or perhaps in a small sample of three games, against teams who moved the ball at will in every other way imaginable, New Orleans just happened to not get tested? They have faced the sixth-fewest targets to tight ends (5.7 per game) and have been up against a relatively motley crew — including Clive Walford, Jacob Tamme, and the Giants’ two-headed monstrosity.

None of the tight ends the Saints faced are even the second option in their passing offense, and although Henry probably isn’t either, the tight end role in Philip Rivers’ passing attacks holds an esteemed position. Last week, Henry started for a still-injured Antonio Gates, played 97-percent of snaps, and hauled in all five targets for 76 yards. His minimum salary and quick production put Henry on the DFS map this week, but New Orleans’ early-season “success” against tight ends should suppress his ownership to a level that’s manageable with creative roster construction.

About the Author

pthorman
Pat Thorman (pthorman)

Pat is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and a consultant for Draft Day Consultants Inc. He won the FSWA Newcomer of the Year in 2013, and placed 6th in the 2014 FantasyPros weekly rankings contest in his first year competing. Pat lives north of Boston with his wife and son, and you can follow him on Twitter @Pat_Thorman.