NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 5
Week 5 appears as if it will be defined by how we approach a handful of matchups.
Each of the Giants-Packers, Jets-Steelers, Chargers-Raiders, and Buccaneers-Panthers games seems like it contains enough potential fantasy wildfire to take down a small tournament by itself. We want as much exposure to those matchups as we can reasonably get, but will need help from other games to do it.
Below are several players who can supplement the many stacks that can be drawn from the aforementioned high-ceiling games. For the most part, they will be mid-to-low salaried plays to help mitigate salary cap issues in a week with tight FanDuel pricing. Aaron Rodgers / Jordy Nelson and Ben Roethlisberger / Antonio Brown stacks tend to get expensive, after all. Good luck this week, everyone.
QB Ryan Tannehill – Miami Dolphins, $7,100
Although he’s priced as only the 22nd-most-expensive quarterback after Miami’s national television meltdown in Cincinnati, Tannehill will have extremely low ownership – even for a quarterback. He is $200 more expensive than Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is in an expected shootout and the more likely target for those looking to go slumming at quarterback. Although the Jets are staring at a funnel defense in Pittsburgh, the Dolphins – whose 33.2-percent run rate ranks second-to-last — are a funnel offense thanks to an ineffectual running game and poor game scripts.
Tannehill takes on our 30th-graded pass coverage and 19th-best pass rush. Considering he has a 35.2 NFL passer rating when facing pressure, and a 116.0 mark with a clean pocket, that’s significant. He was pressured on more than half of his dropbacks (16) by our second-graded pass rush in Cincinnati. Also working in his favor is the Dolphins’ heavier no-huddle usage in home games. Tempo tends to mute a pass rush, and Tannehill’s sack rate from the hurry-up (two-percent) is tiny compared to after he huddles (11-percent). He is not comfortable to start in fantasy, but he’s a cheap, stackable, up-tempo passer at home against fantasy’s fifth-most generous quarterback defense.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – New York Jets, $6,900
Despite his recent abysmal performances, Fitzpatrick is in play for tournaments. After nine interceptions in two games, he is easy to overlook in favor of Ben Roethlisberger when stacking the Jets-Steelers game. Yet, when making Brandon Marshall lineups, we only need to remember our Cam Newton-Julio Jones-Greg Olsen stacks from last week. Few, if any, contained Matt Ryan. As the 24th-most-expensive quarterback, using him instead of Roethlisberger (fourth-most expensive) provides a unique construction. Two tough run defenses will provide both quarterbacks with opportunity. The Steelers are facing the second-most pass attempts and allow the third-most passing yards.
Fitzpatrick has had a better passer rating against blitzes each year since 2011. The Steelers have increased their blitz rate in each game this season, culminating with the ninth-highest mark of Week 4 against the Chiefs. Like Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith has mostly been better against blitzes and Pittsburgh brought it anyway. Dating back to last season, Fitzpatrick has completed 77-percent of his 60 blitzed targets to Marshall, for 680 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions (138.9 passer rating). To be clear, we should not be majoring in Fitzpatrick lineups – or fading an incredible play like Roethlisberger — but when stacking this game, do not forget to sprinkle in some FitzMagic.
RB C.J. Anderson – Denver Broncos, $8,000
Okay, so Anderson isn’t exactly cheap. He does force us into a different lineup construction, however, as many folks will not be able to pay up at running back this week. He will not be low-owned either, but with Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, and Ezekiel Elliott within $700 of him, Anderson won’t be prohibitively popular. What Anderson will be is the lead back on a team favored by five points at home against one of the league’s worst run defenses. He has 73-percent of Denver’s backfield handoffs and 73-percent of the targets. Of the 263 total snaps played by Broncos running backs, 73-percent of them are Anderson’s.
Despite averaging only 3.0 yards per carry since Week 1, Anderson is still a top-12 fantasy running back, and he gets a far easier matchup than he has dealt with in recent weeks. The Falcons are our seventh-worst-graded run defense and allow 4.5 yards per carry (fifth-worst). Atlanta gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs despite facing the fifth-fewest rushing attempts per game (18.3) and surrendering only two rushing touchdowns. This is due to the Falcons allowing the most running back receptions on the second-most targets. Considering Anderson was the only Broncos back to see a target last week, he will eat through the air as well.
RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $7,500
Blount won’t be completely forgotten as a double-digit favorite up against a run defense that’s allowed 4.3 yards per carry (11th-most). Yet, he will be an afterthought when folks assess this game. While Cleveland’s run-stopping grades 20th-best, it’s their 24th-graded pass coverage and the return of an “angry” quarterback that will conspire to inflate ownership of the Patriots’ passing game. In most cases, that comes at the expense of a running back’s popularity. Despite a narrative surrounding Tom Brady now wanting to throw 10 touchdowns per game (he always does), the Patriots won’t forget Blount – especially in blowouts.
The Browns have surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs, and their competition has not been stiff. The Ravens and Dolphins featured backfields in total disarray when facing Cleveland, before the Browns proceeded to give up the best-graded rushing performance of Matt Jones’ professional career. Blount has scored 28 touchdowns in 42 games for the Patriots. He is a prime leverage play off of what is sure to be highly-owned pieces of the New England passing game, and correlates beautifully with a Patriots defense looking to rebound from a rough Week 4 performance while facing a rookie quarterback making his third start.
RB Jerick McKinnon – Minnesota Vikings, $6,200
In what’s projected to be the week’s lowest-scoring matchup, high-ceiling options are few and far between. However, the Vikings are nearly a touchdown favorite, McKinnon’s upside makes him viable in a week when prices are tight, and he is in a four-way tie for the 24th-most-expensive running back. While Matt Asiata will vulture the occasional goal line touchdown, as he did on Monday night, McKinnon punched one in from four yards out an was involved in the red zone. He also out-touched Asiata 21-to-8, saw three more targets, and has been on the field for 34 more plays over the last two weeks.
The Texans have a solid defense, but it is lead entirely by their eighth-graded pass coverage and fifth-graded pass rush. Their 28th-graded run defense allows 4.6-yards per carry (fourth-worst). Chiefs’ running backs averaged 7.4 yards per attempt in Houston, the Patriots ran them over, DeMarco Murray was fantasy’s top back last week, and even Jeremy Langford scored a touchdown against them. The Texans have allowed an NFL-high five runs of 20-plus-yards, and two went for touchdowns. Even if McKinnon does not get every goal line carry, his explosive profile and the Texans’ weak spots combine to push his ceiling upward.
RB DeAndre Washington – Oakland Raiders, $4,700
If we are going to eat chalk, it had better be cheap. It also helps if it comes from one of the best matchups on the slate. With tight pricing, even if Washington doesn’t explode, it will hurt us less than if he does and we don’t have him. He is the 66th-most expensive running back and affords extreme lineup flexibility relative to other backs with blow-up potential. The Raiders are home favorites, and Washington gets a matchup against a crumbling Chargers defense that allows the second-most receptions and fantasy points to running backs. He ranked second in both Elusive Rating and Breakaway Percentage last season among draft-eligible running backs.
Of course there are risks, even in the likely event Latavius Murray’s toe won’t allow him to play. Jamize Olawale may steal goal line work, although he’s received one carry from inside the five yard line this year. The larger worry is the workload of Jalen Richard, who had the same exact rushing grade as Washington (12th-best) among draft-eligible backs. As the Raiders’ likely starter, it’s reasonable to expect Washington to get the most work, and if he starts hot, perhaps a lot more. Getting the first touches in this equation is no small thing. The Chargers have been gashed on the ground in three of four games – Jacksonville being the fourth – and it’s easy to envision Washington shredding them while backed by our sixth-best run blocking unit.
WR Kelvin Benjamin – Carolina Panthers, $7,500
For those playing slates with Monday night’s game included, getting a piece of either team’s passing game is a good idea. Benjamin will be under-owned in the Sunday-Monday slates. He is priced among more attractive names like T.Y. Hilton, Brandon Marshall, and Terrelle Pryor. He also is probably going to be without Cam Newton, which not only reduces his point expectation, it makes it less likely he will be part of a quarterback-receiver stack. Locking him and backup quarterback Derek Anderson into your lineup on Sunday morning – while everyone has a full field to choose from – will provide an extremely unique lineup.
Anderson is a quality backup who has been in Carolina since 2011, and in his last start – also at home against the Buccaneers — he ran an offense that tied for the Panthers’ highest no-huddle rate of the 2014 season (35-percent). He completed 16 of 24 targets, for 187 yards and a touchdown to Benjamin in two games against Tampa Bay that season. This year, the Buccaneers pass coverage grades 25th-best, their pass rush 29th, and their defense is beat-up. They allow the fifth-highest passing yards per attempt and the fifth-lowest yards per carry. No matter who the quarterback is, he will throw often – and Benjamin faces the second-most receiver-friendly fantasy defense.
WR Jordan Matthews – Philadelphia Eagles, $7,000
As the 22nd-most expensive wideout, Matthews is an intriguing mid-priced option. The Eagles have a 24.3-point implied total against a team that allows the sixth-most points to wideouts, will use a high rate of no-huddle, and won’t be able to run the ball. This will boost Philadelphia’s offensive snaps, which already rank ninth-highest on a per-game basis. While the Eagles will go run-heavy against out 31st-graded run defense, the matchup for Carson Wentz and the passing game is similarly juicy. The Lions’ pass coverage grades 28th-best and their pass rush ranks dead last. Coming off of a bye, the rookie will not spend all game handing off – and crazy things often happen to short (2.5-point) road favorites.
If the game does turn more pass-heavy for the Eagles than assumed, Matthews will go from a solid, lightly-owned tournament option, to an under-owned money-maker. Zach Ertz will be popular due to the Lions’ generosity to fantasy tight ends, contributing to Matthews’ low ownership rate. With two touchdowns on four red zone targets thus far, and a propensity to run routes from an inside position (67.9-percent slot rate), some of Detroit’s struggles with tight ends also will apply to Matthews. The 6-foot-3, 212-pounder’s size will be a predicament for the appropriately-named Quandre Diggs (5-9; 197). He allowed six catches for 100 yards last week — all to Bears not named Alshon Jeffery – and is our 103rd-graded coverage cornerback.
WR Sterling Shepard – New York Giants, $6,900
An inexpensive path to Giants passing game exposure is to come down from Odell Beckham’s $8,500 salary, and pay Shepard’s 24th-most-expensive-wideout price. This comes in especially handy when building game stacks. With Beckham is priced in Jordy Nelson’s neighborhood ($100 more), we can use Shepard with Green Bay’s No. 1 receiver. With Randall Cobb only $200 pricier than Shepard, using him in conjunction with Beckham requires roughly the same salary cap percentage, making it a bit less complicated to build multiple lineups around. Shepard, however, may be the best combination of price and projection of any wideout playing Sunday night.
Shepard is priced in a narrow salary range spanning from $7,100 (Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders) to $6,700 (DeSean Jackson), that includes also includes Julian Edelman, Matthews, and Michael Crabtree. All are attractive this week and will syphon ownership away from Shepard, despite his juicy matchup with Quinten Rollins. Since Sam Shields has been out, Rollins has seen the most snaps in slot coverage for the Packers, by far (71). For the season, he’s allowed eight catches on 12 targets while manning the slot, for 137 yards and two touchdowns (144.8 passer rating). Shepard’s targets dropped to six in Minnesota, but will again be juiced by tempo and Green Bay’s funnel defense.
WR DeSean Jackson – Washington Redskins, $6,700
Jackson did not work out like we’d hoped last week (one catch on one target for five yards against the Browns), but we’re going back to the well. What did work out last week was targeting the Ravens’ money-maker of a cornerback, Shareece Wright. Our 96th-graded coverage cornerback, the man affectionately known as “Char-eece” had allowed three touchdowns in two games prior to his date with Crabtree. Now he’s allowed five touchdowns in three games. Jackson runs most of his routes on the right side (43 percent) — where he’ll see Wright — and in the slot (31 percent). Jerraud Powers will cover the slot and is also a plus-matchup for Jackson.
Washington is on the road as a 4-point underdog. The Ravens boasts our top-graded run defense, allow 3.7 yards per carry, and have faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts. A large reason Jackson only got one look last week was Matt Jones had a career day against the Browns. Jones will not have that kind of success in Baltimore. Another reason Jackson flamed out against Cleveland was Jordan Reed blew up with nine catches and two touchdowns on 10 targets against fantasy’s fourth-most-accommodative tight end defense. Now he faces the sixth-stingiest. The Redskins project to trail, won’t be able to run, and their best means of moving the ball will be via a Wright-fueled Jackson.
TE Delanie Walker – Tennessee Titans, $6,400
We can expect folks to pay up into the Reed zone, or – far more likely in a week with tight salaries — down to value town. Walker is priced awkwardly below the big boys and in between the Patriots’ tight ends, one of whom is causing the season’s first “To Gronk, or not to Gronk” dilemma (“To Unicorn or not,” is the real question). Walker is coming off of a disappointing two-catch, 34-yard return from injury. Of course, he did see eight targets and was held down in Houston by the third-stingiest defense against fantasy tight ends. Walker will have no such issue against a Dolphins defense that allows 11th-most points, and should be even worse than that.
Miami has faced a first-game-back Jimmy Graham, the Gronkless Patriots, Gary Barnidge with a rookie quarterback in his first start, and whatever it is the Bengals are doing at tight end these days. The Dolphins are still allowing the 11th-most points, despite facing the eighth-fewest targets to tight ends. Tennessee needs to get Marcus Mariota, who is currently our worst-graded quarterback, back on track. Reemphasizing the role of his most productive target from 2016, who can run more routes with the Titans’ tackles both grading top-five, is a good start. It appeared to be last week, when he led Titans pass-catchers by three targets, and it should carry over into a plus-matchup.
TE Zach Miller – Chicago Bears, $5,400
The highest-scorer at his position over the last two weeks, Miller supplies salary relief and offers two-touchdown upside against a paper-tiger tight end defense. With Kevin White out for the foreseeable future – if not the rest of the season – Miller moves up the target totem pole, with only Alshon Jeffery decidedly in front of him. White saw 21 targets over the last two games, and they all won’t be transferred to new No. 2 wideout Eddie Royal (questionable; calf). Miller already had been rolling since Brian Hoyer replaced Jay Cutler. Hoyer has completed 13 of 14 targets to his tight end, for 125 yards and three touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Colts don’t appear to be a favorable matchup for tight ends. They allow the 21st-most fantasy points to the position, with only one touchdown. Of course, other than the Lions’ Eric Ebron, who scored the touchdown back in Week 1, Indianapolis hasn’t been tested. They have faced the fewest targets to tight ends (4.3 per game), and been up against Virgil Green, Hunter Henry in his first start — he did catch all five targets for 76 yards — and Jaguars rookie Neal Sterling. What the Colts have improved, now that Vontae Davis is back, is their coverage on wideouts. Miller will be a focal point of the Bears’ offense and most legitimate pass-catching tight end Indianapolis has seen since Week 1.