NFL Chalk Talk: Week 11
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Tom Brady $8500 at BUF: 16 percent
Generally speaking, players are realizing that paying up for quarterback on a full-PPR site is often a mistake. That’s especially true on DraftKings, when guys with reasonable floors like Mark Sanchez, Ryan Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor and Matthew Stafford are all under $5500. Still, this is a week where there aren’t a lot of extremely high-priced options to love at other positions outside of Devonta Freeman. Even without Julian Edelman (foot), Brady makes for a decent play against a Bills defense that funnels action toward the pass. Last time these two teams met, the Pats recorded 10 RB runs and Brady dropped back to throw 61 times.
2. Carson Palmer $6700 vs. CIN: 14 percent
Palmer just does it every week. He put 363 yards and three TDs on the Seahawks in Seattle last week as everyone watched on Sunday Night Football. He hasn’t scored fewer than 18.3 DK points in a game all year and is averaging 23.6. So even though Michael Floyd (hamstring) and John Brown (hamstrings) are both banged up, and Cincy is far easier to run against the throw, Palmer is a fine play that people will be on. He’s certainly in cash-game consideration along with a lot of other guys.
3. Cam Newton $6900 vs. WAS: 12 percent
Newton is never highly owned even though all the designed runs and goal-line carries give him a very high floor. He’s had at least 20 DraftKings points 6-of-9 games. This week, I think he’ll see an ownership bump as he’s home against the Redskins. However, he won’t be overowned because Carson Palmer ($6700) and Philip Rivers ($6900) will also be reasonably popular. This is not a week to worry about ownership or being contrarian at the quarterback position – things are going to be very spread out. For the record, I also think Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr will be in this 10-14 percent range.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Mark Sanchez 6 percent, Tyrod Taylor 7 percent, Russell Wilson 4 percent, Matt Ryan 5 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. Charcandrick West $4300 at SD: 46 percent
West is the mega-chalk of Week 11. He’s coming off a 31.1-point outburst against the vaunted Broncos defense in Mile High and now he faces a Chargers team that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and 30th in YPC allowed (4.85). West is also getting Jamaal Charles-esque usage, averaging 25.0 touches per game with red-zone work over his last three. There’s always room for a fade in mass-field GPPs when we can project a guy around 50 percent ownership. But there’s no way I’d do it in cash or smaller-field GPP.
2. Devonta Freeman vs. IND $8400: 37 percent
There aren’t a lot of quality spots to spend money this week. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are overpriced relative to the other QBs/TEs on DraftKings, Le’Veon Bell is done, Julio Jones will see Vontae Davis, Nuk Hopkins will see Darrelle Revis and Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown are on a bye. There is also a ton of value out there in the form of Charcandrick, Amendola and others. So everyone will have money to spend and will want to spend it on Freeman – myself included. No player in the NFL has the kind of floor Freeman has given his role in this offense. He’s scored at least 18 DK points in seven straight games.
3. Adrian Peterson vs. GB $6800: 20 percent
Peterson was lightly owned last week (9.2 percent) as everyone was on Todd Gurley (33.8 percent). That was a perfect example of leveraging projected high ownership against a player with a similar projection at a similar price. As for this week, Peterson’s price has actually gone down $300 for a home game against a Packers team that is a middling 17th in run defense DVOA. With all the value at quarterback and wide receiver, I think a smart cash-game lineup construction can include both Freeman and Peterson.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Todd Gurley 8 percent, James Starks 7 percent, Ronnie Hillman 2 percent
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WIDE RECEIVER
1. Danny Amendola $4000 vs. BUF: 38 percent
Amendola is not Julian Edelman. First of all, Edelman is a freak talent that doesn’t get enough credit. But more importantly, Edelman split his time between slot and Z in the Patriots’ offense. Amendola, meanwhile, is really only a slot man. So don’t go projecting Amendola directly into Edelman’s stats. That said, this is an offense that has lost a ton of targets lately (Dion Lewis as well) and an offense that the slot man typically produces in a big way. It would be a shock if Amendola didn’t see at least seven targets from Tom Brady, making his $4000 price tag criminally low. The argument for a fade is Amendola’s lack of red-zone appeal and a possible blowout of the Bills at home.
2. Stevie Johnson $3900 vs. KC: 20 percent
The Chargers’ receiving situation continues to be a mess. Keenan Allen (kidney) is done, Malcom Floyd (shoulder) is doubtful, Ladarius Green (ankle) is questionable and Antonio Gates (knee) may not be 100 percent. Stevie is a great bet for another 8-11 targets, which means I’ll be on him at $3900. The only reason I suspect his ownership won’t be higher is because he’s off a bye and only had 13.8 DK points in his last game.
3. Mike Evans $7300 at PHL: 16 percent
I wouldn’t worry about ownership too much in this tier of wideouts. Michael Crabtree, Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper are all going to be around the same spot in terms of popularity, so we can just pick the one (or ones) we like most. I do think people will shade slightly toward Evans, as he’s the one that’s seeing the massive amount of targets without Vincent Jackson (knee) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder). The Bucs are also up in pace against the Eagles, who have the green “30th” tag in WR defense as anyone considering Evans on DK will see.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Demaryius Thomas 7 percent, Calvin Johnson 8 percent, T.Y. Hilton 4 percent, Marvin Jones 3 percent
TIGHT END
1. Jordan Reed $4600 at CAR: 28 percent
Reed is in play every week he suits up. He’s averaging 8.2 targets per game, a massive number for anyone at $4600. Throw in unique separation ability and a go-to role in the red zone and we have a high ceiling. Note that Reed was a whopping 41.1 percent owned last week – I think that number will come way down this week due to the Panthers defense and Antonio Gates back in the slate.
2. Rob Gronkowski $7700 vs. BUF: 18 percent
Gronkowski was only 15.3 percent owned last week as people realized paying $8000 for a guy averaging eight targets per game doesn’t make a lot of sense – even if that guy has one of the highest touchdown projections on the slate. Gronk only got seven targets last week even in a game the Patriots trailed for most of and lost Julian Edelman in. So even though he ended up with 25.3 DK points, that’s a little deceptive. Gronk remains a threat for massive, multi-touchdown games – but anyone who has chased that notion all year is likely down a lot of money. His price tag relative to the other tight ends makes roster construction difficult.
3. Antonio Gates $4800 vs. KC: 12 percent
One would think Gates’ knee is close to 100 percent as he comes out of a bye. If that’s the case, Philip Rivers are going to have to rely on him heavily — as noted above in the Stevie Johnson section, the Chargers have been decimated by injury at the pass-catcher position. So Gates makes plenty of sense as a primary red-zone threat on a team that has struggled to run the ball all year and will continue to do so. Assuming Gates is healthy, his projection is only slightly under Reed’s but it should come with less ownership.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Greg Olsen 8 percent, Jimmy Graham 5 percent, Zach Ertz 4 percent