NFL Chalk Talk: Week 8
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Philip Rivers $6600: 27 percent
Last week, Rivers was “only” 18.6 percent in the Milly Maker. That was because Carson Palmer turned out to be the public’s preferred option at 27.8 percent. This week is a different story as Rivers is the one with far more hype. The Chargers can’t run the ball, the Ravens have given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than anyone and Rivers is on pace to set the NFL record for yards in a season. Expect him to be the chalk quarterback in all formats this week.
2. Andy Dalton $6000: 14 percent
As I’ve previously mentioned, DraftKings pricing algorithm appears to be broken when it comes to the Red Rifle. Dalton is fantasy’s No. 2 QB on a per-game basis and is riding a five-game streak of at least 21 DK points. He’s done it despite tough matchups with the Chargers, Seahawks and Bills. This week, Dalton is the 12th-most expensive quarterback and is facing a Steelers team whose secondary has overperformed to date. In a week with limited value options, plenty of people will safely take the savings with Dalton.
3. Drew Brees $6700: 12 percent
I suspect Carson Palmer will be close to Brees, likely in the 8-10 percent range. But most DFS players are aware of how bad the Browns’ run defense is and will therefore shy away a bit from Palmer. Meanwhile, Brees is the big name at home against a Giants defense that funnels play calls to the pass game. Still, note that he has just eight touchdowns in six games, a reminder of how poor his pass-catching arsenal is. I’m off Brees at this elevated percentage.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Matt Ryan 6 percent, Jay Cutler 2 percent, Ben Roethlisberger 5 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. Todd Gurley $6300: 61 percent
I was way, way off on Gurley last week. I thought he’d be around 40 percent owned in the Milly Maker, which I considered a massive number. It turned out that he was an eye-popping 67.1 percent owned at a $5000 price tag against the worst run defense in the league. This week, Gurley costs $6300 but is at home again and the 49ers are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Most people that used Gurley will be back on him this week and most people that didn’t will be chasing their mistake. I like to fade massive ownership like this in GPPs like the Milly Maker in an effort to eliminate almost two-thirds of the field with one injury or one dud. It really depends on what your goals are: Do you want to cash in the tournament or would you prefer to take a Ricky Bobby “If you ain’t first, you’re last” approach?
2. Devonta Freeman $8000: 33 percent
Freeman was $7900 last week and was at 44.7 percent in the Milly Maker. I ticked him down significantly for this week because Le’Veon Bell ($8300) should garner a lot of attention with Ben Roethlisberger back. Still, Freeman’s volume is impossible to ignore – he’s averaging 27.2 touches per game across his last five. Even in a neutral matchup like this one against the Bucs, he’ll be deservedly popular. He’s a great play yet again.
3. Le’Veon Bell $8300: 16 percent
Running backs like Justin Forsett ($6100), Matt Forte ($7300) and Danny Woodhead ($4500) will be reasonably popular. But Bell is the safe one that people rightfully gravitate toward. Even with Mike Vick and Landry Jones sapping the life out of the Steelers’ offense for the last month, Bell averaged 125.5 total yards per game. Now that Ben Roethlisberger (knee) is back, Bell’s ceiling gets a serious boost. He’s a very nice pivot off Freeman at half the projected ownership.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Darren McFadden 7 percent, Chris Ivory 8 percent, Adrian Peterson 9 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Stefon Diggs $4800: 30 percent
You’re not being sneaky by rostering Diggs this week. In fact, you weren’t even that sneaky last week as he was 17.4 percent owned. But now we have even more safety in rostering the fifth-round rookie as we know he’s going to lead the Vikings in snaps even with Charles Johnson healthy. Everyone also knows the matchup against the Bears is pristine and they should know that Mike Wallace has let Teddy Bridgewater down a ton lately. I certainly like Diggs this week, but I think there’s merit for a fade here given his projected ownership.
2. Julio Jones $9200: 28 percent
Last week, Julio was coming off three straight bad games and was on the road against a Titans secondary that has played surprisingly well. He was still 13.8 percent owned. Now comes a dream spot as Jones is home against a Bucs secondary that is simply overmatched. He’ll see a lot of Johnthan Banks, who was PFF’s No. 94 corner last year and will get lit again now that he’s back from injury. From a game theory perspective, the time to be on Julio was last week. That doesn’t mean he’s not a really good play again this week.
3. DeAndre Hopkins $8600: 17 percent
Just as Hopkins’ ownership peaked, he burned everyone with a disappointing 6-50-0 performance against the Dolphins. That’s going to tank his percentage in a big way heading into Week 8 against the Titans. It shouldn’t though, as Hopkins still saw 12 targets, Arian Foster (Achilles) is done and Cecil Shorts (hamstring) remains iffy at best. Throw in a Titans secondary that is struggling with a lot of injuries of their own, and we have a nice bounce-back spot for Nuk. I think Antonio Brown will be in this 15-18 percent range as well with his price down at $7800 and Big Ben healthy.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Odell Beckham 5 percent, A.J. Green 8 percent, Willie Snead 4 percent, Randall Cobb 5 percent
TIGHT END
1. Ladarius Green $3300: 37 percent (assuming Antonio Gates is ruled out)
We saw a ton of people get on Green last week even with Gates’ status still unclear as of 1pm ET Sunday. The athletic backup ended up at 21.8 percent in the Milly Maker. With limited value options this week, Rob Gronkowski playing Thursday and Travis Kelce playing in London, Green is going to be massively more popular this week. His price is extremely low and everyone knows the Chargers are incapable of running the ball. Rivers/Ladarius is the chalk Week 8 stack.
2. Tyler Eifert $5300: 17 percent
After Green, there’s not a lot to love at tight end this week. Gary Barnidge has a very difficult matchup (Arizona isn’t bad against TEs anymore with Todd Bowles gone), no one wants to play Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen is price-prohibitive. Eifert’s floor is low because of all the mouths to feed in Cincy, but his ceiling is higher than “(player-popup)Ladarius Green”:/players/ladarius-green-13578’s. We’ve seen 9-104-2 and 8-90-1 performances out of him already this year.
3. Martellus Bennett: 11 percent
Tight ends like Delanie Walker, Gary Barnidge, Jimmy Graham and Jason Witten will all be around this range as well. The bottom line is that once we get past Green, I wouldn’t worry about ownership at the tight end position. I’d consider Bennett the strongest play as the one averaging 11.6 targets per game since Jay Cutler returned from injury three weeks ago.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (if healthy) 4 percent, Jacob Tamme 3 percent