NFL Grind Down: Week 13 - Page Two
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Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 42 | 23.25 | 4.5 | 42 | 18.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.2 | 13 | 20 | 19 | Offense | 19.5 | 26 | 22 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.6 | 27 | 3 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 9 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 17 | 6 | 7 | Denver Broncos | 1 | 23 | 1 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 93 | 60 | 5 | 738 | Robinson | 105 | 53 | 6 | 591 | |
| Sanders | 105 | 61 | 4 | 830 | Hurns | 76 | 35 | 3 | 477 | |
| Fowler | 18 | 9 | 2 | 135 | Lee | 69 | 46 | 2 | 581 | |
| Green | 28 | 18 | 0 | 211 | Thomas | 51 | 30 | 4 | 281 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Trevor Siemian (DEN QB) – Out (Foot) / Julius Thomas (JAX TE) – Doubtful (Back) / Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Hamstring) / Chris Ivory (JAX RB) – Out (Hamstring)
DEN Matchup Rating: 6.5
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: The Broncos let one get away at home on Sunday night, but it wasn’t the fault of Trevor Siemian. His receivers made some big plays, allowing Siemian to throw for 368 yards and three scores in the game despite completing just 20 passes. That type of production cannot be expected from Siemian long-term, and taking him this week pretty much epitomizes the definition of chasing points. Jacksonville has a respectable pass defense, and they held Tyrod Taylor to 166 yards and 12 completions last week (though the Bills only threw the ball 18 times and didn’t run a lot of offensive plays). The Jaguars rank just above average at 14th in DVOA against the pass, and it’s tough to get behind Siemian on the road in this spot.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Siemian is out with a foot injury, thrusting Paxton Lynch into a starting role. He hasn’t shown much in his opportunities this year, but how much of a downgrade can he be from Siemian? This doesn’t move the needle much for me. Lynch isn’t on the fantasy radar. Jacksonville’s defense might be in play as a sneaky low-cost option, especially at their price on FanDuel
Running Back: Denver is starting to give Kapri Bibbs a few more snaps, though he was still out-touched almost three to one by Devontae Booker against the Chiefs. Booker continues to be relatively under-whelming despite getting solid praise from various football experts. The struggles have even come in some good matchups. In the games since C.J. Anderson got hurt, the Broncos have faced San Diego, Oakland, New Orleans, and Kansas City. None of those teams have great defenses; Kansas City has the best unit, but they are weaker against the run. This matchup is another decent one, as Jacksonville is also weaker against the run. The DFS sites continue to put the bait out there, as Booker is very affordable on both FD and DK this week. He’s tough to trust at this point, and this is probably the last shot he gets with me.
Pass Catchers: Emmanuel Sanders won the Denver pass catching game in Week 12, hauling in seven passes for 162 yards and a touchdown, including two big grabs on the drive that gave Denver the lead in the fourth quarter (which they eventually relinquished). That was the first 100 yard game for either Sanders or Demaryius Thomas since Week 3 when both of them got there. Against Jacksonville’s solid secondary, there are better ways to go this week.
The Takeaway: I didn’t expect to be low on the Broncos here, but I suppose that’s where I stand. The combination of Trevor Siemian at quarterback and a decent pass defense for Jacksonville has me off the passing game, and Devontae Booker continues to disappoint on the ground. I’ll give Booker one last shot on a few rosters this week, but it’s hard to say that with confidence given his recent game logs since becoming the primary ball carrier.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles may be a garbage time hero, but it would have to be quite a short slate for me to consider him as a fantasy option against a team that is first in the league in DVOA against the pass. Bortles completed just 50% of his passes and threw for a meager 126 yards last week against Buffalo. Surely, you can find a better option with him drawing the Broncos the very next week.
Running Back: Chris Ivory was off to a good start against the Bills before being forced from the game early due to a hamstring injury. With T.J. Yeldon nursing an ankle injury of his own, the Jaguars were forced to give the ball to Denard Robinson 13 times in the loss. Denver is definitely exploitable on the ground, but it’s tough to tell who is going to play at this point. If Robinson is the only healthy player, he might be worth a look as a punt play. Check back later in the week for an update.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Ivory is out. Yeldon is going to play, but he may be limited to some degree. I don’t mind Denard Robinson as a dirt cheap punt play against a mediocre rush defense.
Pass Catchers: For one week, give yourself a break from the pain of Allen Robinson. Marqise Lee caught a touchdown last week, but he has not caught more than four passes in any of the last five games. This isn’t the week to get cute with Jacksonville’s receivers, even if Allen Hurns is out.
The Takeaway: I likely won’t be playing anyone from Jacksonville outside of a possible punt play with Denard Robinson if he happens to be the only healthy running back option. Even though they are playing at home, the Jaguars have a meager team total of 18 points in this game. Denver’s defense will be a popular option, especially with Bortles’ propensity for pick-sixes.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
| Houston Texans | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 45.5 | 19.5 | -6.5 | 45.5 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.6 | 29 | 31 | 5 | Offense | 24.9 | 11 | 8 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.3 | 25 | 23 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 21.5 | 12 | 4 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 22 | 15 | 28 | 25 | Houston Texans | 5 | 21 | 3 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 105 | 55 | 3 | 610 | Nelson | 108 | 61 | 9 | 754 | |
| Fuller | 61 | 30 | 2 | 449 | Cobb | 77 | 54 | 3 | 558 | |
| Miller | 26 | 15 | 1 | 99 | Adams | 86 | 58 | 8 | 776 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 59 | 39 | 3 | 429 | Cook | 24 | 13 | 1 | 165 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Aaron Rodgers (GB QB) – Questionable but expected to play (Hamstring)
HOU Matchup Rating: 6.0
GB Matchup Rating: 7.0
Houston Texans
Quarterback: In what comes as a surprise to absolutely nobody, Brock Osweiler had no touchdown passes and three interceptions last week. He vultured a rushing touchdown from Lamar Miller, thus making him even more worthless to many. Friends don’t let friends roster Brock Osweiler, even against the Green Bay defense.
Running Back: Somehow, the Texans are still alone in first place in the AFC South. They certainly know that Brock Osweiler isn’t going to be the guy to win them football games, and as such they will try to ride the running game as much as they can. Green Bay has been much better against the run than the pass this year, but they have faced an abysmal group of running backs for the season as a whole. Lamar Miller saw four times as many snaps as any other Houston RB last week, and he should be close to 100% healthy again. He also would have had a goal line score last week if not for Osweiler running one in. I expect Miller to fly under the radar a bit here, and I like him for all formats.
Pass Catchers: I still feel bad for DeAndre Hopkins, but that doesn’t mean I will roster him out of pity. I wouldn’t be surprised if he made a big play in this game, but it’s impossible to trust him with Osweiler at the helm. We haven’t seen much upside from Hopkins or Will Fuller since the early weeks of the season. The most reliable target has been C.J. Fiedorowicz, who should perform well against the Packers. He’s the only guy we can trust at this point (and that’s pretty sad).
The Takeaway: Thanks to the quarterback situation, the only fantasy options on this team are Lamar Miller and C.J. Fiedorowicz. That is the case even against a poor Green Bay defense. What is this world coming to? It’s about time to start a #FreeDeAndre movement, as his talent is going to waste in Houston.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Just when everyone is ready to write off the Packers, they go out and play one of their most complete games of the year on Monday in Philadelphia. Aaron Rodgers played a nearly flawless game, completing 30-of-39 passes for 313 yards and two scores. With his receiving corps fully healthy (outside of Jared Cook missing a few bricks mentally), Rodgers should put up top three production at the quarterback position down the stretch. I prefer Brees if you are spending up this week, but Rodgers will likely be a lower owned option if you want a pivot for GPP purposes.
Running Back: Let this crazy stat sink in for a second. It is very possible that Aaron Rodgers will lead the Packers in rushing this season. He is just 85 yards behind the injured Eddie Lacy, and he could easily grab 85 rushing yards in the final five games of the year. He is also about 140 yards clear of Ty Montgomery and James Starks. This is a pass-first team. Starks is a reasonable low cost option, as he clearly is the top running back on the team right now. However, Aaron Ripkowski vultured the goal line touchdown last week, and that really limits Starks’ upside, because he’s not a big play guy. You are better off sticking with the passing game in Green Bay.
Pass Catchers: With everyone healthy here, the cast is a little crowded. The snap distribution from last week’s game is as follows:
Nelson 64 (90.1%)
Adams 64 (90.1%)
Cobb 56 (78.9%)
Montgomery 16 (22.5%)
Janis 6 (8.5%)
That should be a good benchmark moving forward. If the NFL has a comeback player of the year award, Davante Adams would get serious consideration for it. The guy has come a long way from the roster bubble to being one of the most consistent receivers in the NFC. I was hard on him for a long time, so I have to give him some credit. He deserves it. Nelson, Adams, and Cobb are all in play this week, though Cobb has shown limited upside this season after battling injury and losing snaps to Adams.
The Takeaway: Houston’s pass defense has fallen off a bit of late, and Aaron Rodgers and his weapons are certainly in play at home. This is a key game for both teams, and I will give the edge to the Packers. James Starks isn’t a terrible play at running back, but his upside is very limited if he isn’t going to get goal line work. A Rodgers/Nelson or Rodgers/Adams stack makes a lot of sense in a GPP, as Rodgers will almost certainly be lowed owned than Drew Brees at the top this week.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
| Philadelphia Eagles | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.5 | 22 | 1.5 | 42.5 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.1 | 15 | 26 | 8 | Offense | 19.4 | 27 | 10 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 17 | 13 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 23 | 24 | 5 | 31 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 11 | 22 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 89 | 57 | 3 | 686 | Green | 100 | 66 | 4 | 964 | |
| Green-Beckham | 54 | 29 | 2 | 330 | LaFell | 64 | 36 | 4 | 457 | |
| Treggs | 9 | 3 | 0 | 80 | Boyd | 59 | 38 | 1 | 411 | |
| Ertz | 52 | 38 | 1 | 373 | Eifert | 36 | 21 | 2 | 312 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ryan Mathews (PHI RB) – Out (Knee) / Jordan Matthews (PHI WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / A.J. Green (CIN WR) – Out (Hamstring)
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: The Eagles/Bengals game checks in with one of the week’s lowest totals at just 42 points, and the early indications are showing that weather might be a factor in this one. That makes this game pretty ugly to target, especially since you have two struggling offenses battling it out. The league has quickly adjusted to Carson Wentz, and he has been awful of late with a 3/7 TD/INT ratio over his last seven starts. Yikes. Move along to a better option.
Running Back: I could spend all day listing things I’d rather do than attempt to figure out the Philadelphia backfield. Wendell Smallwood did get more work last week, carrying the ball nine times for 37 yards against Green Bay. However, that was with Ryan Mathews inactive. You also know that a “Sproles week” is coming soon. If Mathews sits, you can consider Smallwood and Sproles as cheap GPP options. If Mathews plays, I would just avoid this mess. You’re not missing out on massive upside.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Mathews is out. Proceed as noted here.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews tweaked an ankle against Green Bay and has not practiced yet this week, but that is not currently a concern because of the short week. If Matthews is limited in any capacity, this is an interesting spot to take a chance on Dorial Green-Beckham. He led the team in receptions (six), yards (82), and targets (ten) against the Packers, while Nelson Agholor was a healthy scratch. Priced at the bare minimum on both FD and DK, this could be the last chance to get DGB at a discount. His hands are still as bad as they have always been, but it’s hard to argue with that volume at his price. Zach Ertz was a disappointment last week but is also worth a look.
The Takeaway: Carson Wentz can’t be used as a quarterback option, and the running game is a nightmare to figure out. The best targets are in the receiving corps, with a minimum-priced Dorial Green-Beckham worth a look as a punt play (especially if Jordan Matthews is limited in any way). Zach Ertz also gets a boost if Matthews is held out, though he could be in play for GPPs regardless. He is a better receiver than his stats show, and that is largely attributable to the struggles of Wentz.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: The season has slipped away from the Bengals, and last week’s loss in Baltimore cemented this as a lost year. Andy Dalton was a fringe fantasy player at best even when A.J. Green was healthy. With Green out, Dalton is an afterthought, especially against Philadelphia’s pass defense. Don’t go here.
Running Back: As expected, Jeremy Hill saw an uptick in usage with Giovani Bernard out. He set a career high with six pass catches, 23 routes run, and 61 receiving yards against Baltimore, while he played on 78% of the offensive snaps. The Eagles rank 12th in DVOA against the run, but they rank 2nd against the pass. Expect Hill to be heavily involved in this one, and he is still very reasonably priced on almost every site. Highlight him as one of the better values of the week, even in a game that is projected to be low scoring.
Pass Catchers: The loss of Green opens up targets for plenty of other players in Cincinnati. Tyler Eifert saw a team high 11 targets against the Ravens and led the team in receiving with a 5/68/1 line. He is an elite tight end option for as long as Green is out. Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell both saw nine targets, while Boyd got quite a few red zone looks and also had a catch negated by penalty. Boyd is the higher upside option and remains a fine value play even in a tough matchup.
The Takeaway: Cincinnati is actually a home underdog in this game, and they are only projected to score 20 points. This isn’t a great matchup, but Cincinnati provides opportunity thanks to their value. Jeremy Hill is a better play this week than he was a week ago, while Tyler Eifert and Tyler Boyd are in play in the passing game.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
| Miami Dolphins | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 40.5 | 18.75 | -3 | 40.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 17 | 27 | 6 | Offense | 19.8 | 24 | 16 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 21.8 | 16 | 8 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 1 | 18 | 3 | Miami Dolphins | 18 | 12 | 15 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 89 | 64 | 2 | 735 | Wallace | 86 | 51 | 4 | 792 | |
| Parker | 64 | 41 | 2 | 549 | Smith | 67 | 48 | 3 | 536 | |
| Stills | 51 | 26 | 5 | 480 | Aiken | 36 | 21 | 0 | 236 | |
| Sims | 21 | 15 | 1 | 167 | Pitta | 76 | 52 | 0 | 439 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable (Back) / Kamar Aiken (BAL WR) – Questionable (Thigh)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Three of the four lowest-totaled games of the week are sitting here on Page 2, so I apologize for the lack of options on this page. This Miami/Baltimore game checks in with a 41 point total, and the Dolphins are three point underdogs. That gives them an implied team total of just 19 points. Even though they have won six games in a row, they have come against the likes of the Bills, Jets, Chargers, Rams, and 49ers. None of the six teams have a record better than 6-5. I don’t necessarily think they are a fraud, but this isn’t a spot to get excited about them for fantasy purposes. Against Baltimore’s defense, there are better places to look than the ever frustrating Ryan Tannehill.
Running Back: Miami is dealing with multiple injuries to their offensive line right now, and it sure did show last week against San Francisco. Against the worst rushing defense in the league, Jay Ajayi managed just 2.5 yards per carry on 18 carries. He found the end zone to salvage his fantasy day, but the per carry numbers were alarming. If that’s what he did against the worst rush defense (by far) in the NFL, you can’t expect him to succeed against the best rush defense in the NFL. The Ravens are allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and just 3.4 yards per carry. The matchup and patchwork offensive line make Ajayi an easy avoid in Week 13.
Pass Catchers: Devante Parker was a few breaks away from a huge performance last week. He had two catches, including a touchdown, overturned by replay, but he still managed to squeak out 64 receiving yards on the day. He would still be my pick of the Miami receivers on FanDuel, where the half point PPR negates the impact of catches a little bit. On DraftKings, I would side with Jarvis Landry this week, as he is now cheaper than Parker over there. That’s not a strong endorsement for either guy in a tough matchup.
WEDNESDAY UPDATE – DeVante Parker is looking doubtful for this game. That upgrades the opportunity for both Landry and Stills.
The Takeaway: This is a bad spot for the Dolphins. Their offensive line is banged up, and they are traveling north into the cold to take on a very good defense. Ryan Tannehill and Jay Ajayi are players to avoid. You could take a chance on a receiver if you want, but Miami spreads the ball around to several players. Baltimore’s defense just might be the best target, especially if Miami is still without two or three starting offensive linemen come Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: You are more likely to win a GPP with Justin Tucker than Joe Flacco. Baltimore loves driving to the opposing side of the field and stalling between the 30 and 40 yard line, allowing Tucker to bomb field goal after field goal. That’s great for Tucker and bad for Joe Flacco owners. Are there even any Joe Flacco owners? I’m a Baltimore fan, and I can’t endorse Flacco even in the slightest.
Running Back: The backfield in Baltimore has finally become a virtual split between Kenneth Dixon and Terrance West. It is still my belief that Dixon is the more talented guy. Both saw 13 carries against Cincinnati, with Dixon totaling 49 yards and West totaling 48 yards. That’s not going to separate them from each other! Both are GPP-only options as long as they are splitting carries down the middle. Dixon is a bit cheaper on both sites and would be my preferred option. To be fair, neither guy has really shown much upside this year.
Pass Catchers: Nine different Ravens caught passes last week. Nobody caught more than four, and nobody topped 60 receiving yards. That shouldn’t get you excited about taking any of these guys, especially against a Miami defense that ranks 6th in DVOA against the pass.
The Takeaway: Justin Tucker is a great play on FanDuel. Sadly, he is the best player the Ravens have. I have no interest in anything other than a possible flier on the running back value of Dixon or West in a GPP.
