RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 13

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-12-05 06:18:05

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Dallas Cowboys						Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	43.5	23.25				3	43.5	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.7	3	19	1		Offense	19.8	24	25	32
Opp. Defense	17.5	2	5	14		Opp. Defense	19.4	5	29	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	3	8	2	15		Dallas Cowboys	19	3	25	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	65	33	5	550		Diggs	88	67	2	747
Williams	39	27	2	381		Thielen	61	45	3	571
Beasley	73	58	5	647		Patterson	49	39	2	324
Witten	73	52	2	553		Rudolph	78	48	5	468

Notable injuries and suspensions: Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Questionable (Knee)

DAL Matchup Rating: 6.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback: The Cowboys are rolling, and they draw their second straight Thursday game here against the Vikings. Both these teams actually played on Thanksgiving, so it’s not a short week for either squad. This game should feature plenty of defense, and it has been slapped with one of the lower totals of the week. Dak Prescott continues to get the job done behind a great offensive line and a great running back, both of which help make Prescott a fine leader for this team. He’s a fine quarterback, but he is not a DFS option this week against Minnesota’s pass defense that is ranked fourth in DVOA. He is an easy pass at $8,000 on FanDuel, but it’s tough to even count on him at $5,900 on DraftKings.

Running Back: The Ezekiel Elliott show rolls on. He now leads the league in rushing yards by more than 150 over DeMarco Murray, and the big games keep on coming. He put up 97 yards and a pair of scores against Washington on Thanksgiving, and Minnesota has been much more leaky against the run of late. Given the likely slow pace of this game and the low total, I don’t think you have to play Elliott in this one, but I certainly wouldn’t talk you off him if you want to roll him out there on Thursday.

Pass Catchers: I am not going here this week. Minnesota’s pass defense is too good. There are better ways to spend your high dollar selections than opting for Dez Bryant, as his volume isn’t the same as other big play receivers since Dallas is content to run the ball. Cole Beasley and Jason Witten lack upside, while Terrance Williams has a risk of giving you zero points. This whole group gets a no from me in Week 13.

The Takeaway: Dallas might get challenged in this one, as they are on the road against a team that has a quality defense and desperately needs a victory. I won’t touch anyone from the passing game, but you can consider Ezekiel Elliott at running back if you decide to take anyone from the Cowboys. The Minnesota defense is a sneaky contarian pick to start the week off, if you want to try that in a GPP setting.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Just say no to Sam Bradford. He owns the lowest average depth of target in the league, and he threw a mind-numbingly bad interception to cost his team a chance at overtime against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Dallas doesn’t have a good pass defense, but they control the time of possession and limit plays for opponents. I wouldn’t roster Sam Braford against any team in the league, let alone a team with one loss.

Running Back: In what seems to be the norm in Minnesota now, Jerick McKinnon tends to play on more snaps than Matt Asiata, but you can bet that the lumbering Asiata will get almost every goal line chance. That makes this backfield painfully tough to stomach for DFS purposes, as McKinnon has just one lonely touchdown on the season. Throw in a limited number of snaps and Dallas’ sixth ranked DVOA rush defense on the other side, and you have another spot to avoid.

Pass Catchers: The majority of the reason why “(player-popup)Sam Bradford”:/players/sam-bradford-11617’s yards per attempt don’t look as horrendous as his average depth of target is Stefon Diggs. The dynamic young wide receiver is one of the best playmakers in the entire league, but he doesn’t get as many chances to showcase his skills because there isn’t much talent around him. Even though he missed the Thanksgiving Day game, he appears on track to play this week with practices on both Monday and Tuesday – and his team desperately needs him. Diggs is cheaper on FanDuel ($6,500) than on DraftKings ($6,700), and that has to be something we take into account here. Because FanDuel has a higher salary cap, players are almost always $1,000-$1,200 more expensive on FanDuel than on DraftKings. When we see a guy that is actually cheaper on FD, we generally have a major bargain. He is playable in all formats on FD, and he is a fine GPP target on DK. His return takes away most of the appeal of guys like Adam Thielen or Kyle Rudolph.

The Takeaway: You probably don’t want Sam Bradford or anyone from the running game here. Assuming Stefon Diggs is a full go for this one, he is a great play at a bargain price on FanDuel, while he also makes a nice GPP option on DraftKings. Should he happen to sit up, Adam Thielen and Cordarrelle Patterson get a boost again.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs						Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	49	22.75				-3.5	49	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.9	16	24	23		Offense	32.5	1	3	15
Opp. Defense	27.5	29	32	11		Opp. Defense	19.5	8	20	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	32	31	24	30		Kansas City Chiefs	27	6	32	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Conley	53	34	0	380		Jones	104	65	5	1,140
Wilson	43	25	2	186		Sanu	67	47	3	495
Hill	56	45	5	428		Hardy	17	13	2	130
Kelce	82	57	3	675		Hooper	22	17	2	257

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jeremy Maclin (KC WR) – Out (Groin)

KC Matchup Rating: 7.5
ATL Matchup Rating: 6.5

Kansas City Chiefs

Editor’s Note: Jeremy Maclin has been ruled OUT for Week 13.

Quarterback: Even in a game last week that turned into an unexpected shootout and went a full five quarters, Alex Smith still produced just 220 passing yards and one touchdown. That seems to be his standard line. He hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in any game this season and has just ten touchdown throws in ten games played. Even in a tasty matchup against the Falcons, there simply isn’t enough upside with Smith to consider him in any format.

Running Back: Spencer Ware still has a firm grasp on the lead back duties in Kansas City, but they are mixing in Charcandrick West and Knile Davis a little more on passing downs. West logged 32 snaps against Denver while Davis logged 10. Ware led the team with 41 snaps, and he had 17 carries compared to just three for West and three for Davis. It seems unlikely that Ware will lose all the passing down work, as he has proven capable in that department this season. Last week’s split usage was likely somewhat attributable to the fact that the Chiefs ran a hefty 76 offensive plays. This is a prime spot for Ware to have a big game against an Atlanta defense that ranks just 26th in DVOA against the run, but he isn’t a must play given his lackluster results of late.

Pass Catchers: Atlanta has been stronger against the pass than the run this year, but not by much. They also just lost their top cornerback in Desmond Trufant for the rest of the season. Even though it’s hard to trust Alex Smith, I don’t mind taking a pass catcher in this matchup. Tyreek Hill has been showing off his athleticism over the past few games, turning in a GPP-winning type performance against a good Denver pass defense a week ago. He was heavily involved in the game plan, and his snap usage hit 67% for the second straight week. I don’t think his snap rate will be affected even if Jeremy Maclin returns; Hill has earned it. Travis Kelce saw 15 targets last week and caught eight for 101 yards, and he is a reasonable play at the tight end position, too.

The Takeaway: This is a favorable matchup for Kansas City, and we can certainly target players outside of the quarterback. Spencer Ware has struggled of late but has another favorable matchup, while Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should have success against a weak secondary that is now missing its best player.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Maclin is expected to return this week, but he’s not a fantasy option in his first game back. His return is a slight downgrade for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

SATURDAY UPDATE #2 – Maclin has now been ruled out. That’s quite the 180 degree turn. Ignore the first update!

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback: Matt Ryan has “slipped” to third in the league in passing yards, but he is still having a fine season. He wasn’t needed for a massive yardage total as the Falcons coasted to victory in the second half against Arizona last week in what was a very impressive victory. Ryan connected on 26 of 34 passes in the game, so his accuracy is still on point despite throwing an interception in the contest. The Chiefs are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, but he is certainly in play at home. The price tag on DK ($6,800) is much more favorable than the price tag on FD ($8,600), so DK is the preferred spot to give him a spin.

Running Back: Tevin Coleman returned last week and resumed his customary role, playing on 45% of the offensive snaps while leaving the rest to Devonta Freeman. As usual, Freeman got a larger percentage of the carries with 16 compared to Coleman’s eight. Both logged a rushing touchdown, but Freeman tallied 60 yards and 3.8 yards per carry while Coleman struggled with just nine yards and a 1.1 yards per carry average. The pricing on the two guys really makes you think, as Coleman is considerably cheaper on almost every site. I probably won’t touch this situation in cash games, but both players are viable GPP options and should be relatively low owned this week.

Pass Catchers: The Cardinals predictably took Julio Jones out of the game last week, shadowing him with top corner Patrick Peterson. Jones should find more room against the Chiefs here, as Kansas City’s top cornerback Marcus Peters doesn’t shadow opposing #1 receivers. Peters has also been banged up and allowed some production last week against Denver. This isn’t a spot where you need to fade Julio, and he is primed for a better game here. He also has a more attractive price point, especially on FanDuel at $8,300. It is strange that Ryan is so much cheaper on DK, but Jones is the guy that is a great value on FD. Don’t be fooled by Taylor Gabriel. He is only playing roughly 50% of the offensive snaps and has not seen more than five targets in a game this season. Variance is going to catch up with him soon, though he does deserve a few more snaps. Mohamed Sanu caught all eight of his targets last week and is a reasonable low-cost option, though his upside is limited.

The Takeaway: Feel free to target some Atlanta players here, as they are having a fine offensive season. This game also has sneaky shootout potential in a dome. Matt Ryan is a great price-based play on DraftKings, while Julio Jones is in the same boat on FanDuel. The running back production will be hit-or-miss with both guys healthy, but both Freeman and Coleman are fantastic GPP options. The Falcons are going to score some points in this one, especially with the Chiefs coming off a grueling overtime game on Sunday night in Denver.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Detroit Lions						New Orleans Saints
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	53.5	24				-5.5	53.5	29.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.5	19	18	30		Offense	30.4	2	1	9
Opp. Defense	27.9	30	27	11		Opp. Defense	21.6	15	15	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	17	27	16	19		Detroit Lions	28	10	10	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Tate	85	57	2	617		Cooks	75	51	6	736
Jones	77	42	4	730		Snead	70	51	4	593
Boldin	66	48	6	392		Thomas	84	65	7	789
Ebron	49	35	1	451		Fleener	58	37	3	461

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marvin Jones (DET WR) – Questionable (Thigh) / Theo Riddick (DET RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle) / Mark Ingram (NO RB) – Questionable (Toe)

DET Matchup Rating: 9.0
NO Matchup Rating: 9.5

Detroit Lions

Editor’s Note: NFL Networks’ Ian Rapoport is reporting that Marvin Jones is a “long-shot to play,” but according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Lions will test Jones’s leg during pre-game warmups before making a determination.

Quarterback: This is easily the most fantasy-friendly game on the Sunday slate, as the Lions/Saints tilt has been pegged with a hefty 53 1/2 point total. The Lions somehow reside at 7-4 and atop the NFC North despite trailing in the fourth quarter in all eleven of their games this season. That is remarkable. Matthew Stafford has been great down the stretch of games, and now he will be slinging it alongside Drew Brees in the Superdome. The Saints rank a meager 25th in DVOA against the pass and allowed three scores to Jared Goff a week ago. This is a fine spot to play Stafford, though his price has been inflated a little bit on both of the major sites. It would be a surprise to see him held under 275 yards in this game.

Running Back: Detroit simply isn’t a team that can run the football effectively. A week after logging just 14 rushing yards in a game, the Lions did manage 94 last week against Minnesota. However, 30 of those came from Stafford. Theo Riddick has comfortably established himself as the lead guy ahead of Dwayne Washington, as Riddick out-snapped Washington 48 to 13 last week. This also profiles as a game that will feature plenty of passing on both sides, and that obviously makes Riddick the better option. He is a decent mid-range play on both sites, while Washington has to be avoided right now.

Pass Catchers: As usual, if you can figure out the primary pass catcher in this offense, you can win a lot of money. Ironically, the same thing can be said about the opposing Saints in this game (more on that momentarily). Anquan Boldin dusted off the cobwebs to lead the team in receptions and score the only receiving touchdown on Thanksgiving, but he generally doesn’t have GPP-winning performances at this stage of his career. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are both hit or miss, but they should see plenty of targets in this game. Tate is the safer cash game option, but Jones is a fine target for GPPs, especially on DraftKings where he is value priced at $4,400. Eric Ebron put up a dud on Thanksgiving, but he still played on 80% of the snaps. He could be poised for a bounce back here.

The Takeaway: Every skill position player for the Lions, from Stafford to Riddick to Jones to Tate to Ebron, is in play this week. This game has the highest total of the week and should be a gun-slinging shootout between Stafford and Drew Brees. Fire up the Lions as you see fit.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Jones seems like a real question mark to play this week. If he does go, it sounds like he is nowhere near 100%. This makes Jones extremely risky, and he’s definitely a tough sell on FanDuel where he is more expensive. Give a bump up to Riddick, Tate, and Ebron with this news.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: You can dismiss home/road splits in the NFL all you want, but we can’t argue them with Drew Brees. It’s been humming along for years now. He is averaging 357 passing yards per game at home this year and has a TD/INT ratio of 19/4. He is fresh off dismantling the Rams’ decent pass defense, and now he has a mouthwatering matchup against Detroit’s pass defense that just happens to rank dead last in the league in DVOA against the pass. Look out. Brees is your top overall quarterback option in all formats in Week 13.

Running Back: It appears that Mark Ingram got the message when he was benched for his fumble a few weeks ago. Although he still cedes about 30-40% of the snaps to Tim Hightower, the Saints know who their best running back is. Ingram was electric against the Rams in Week 12, logging 10.4 yards per carry (146 yards on 14 carries) while also catching a 21 yard touchdown pass. He has immense upside against the Lions, but his often volatile nature makes him better as a GPP play than a cash game staple. Don’t be afraid to use him in GPPs, especially if you are playing an intentional ownership-based fade of Brees.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Ingram is truly questionable for this game with a toe injury. That makes him much more risky. Give Tim Hightower a look as a value play if Ingram ends up being inactive.

Pass Catchers: While Drew Brees handsomely rewarded his owners last week, he did not do so well if you paired him with Brandin Cooks, who somehow didn’t have a single target. He did not show up in the box score at all, even though the Saints scored seven offensive touchdowns. Perhaps most concerning was that Cooks saw his snap rate dip to 60.8%, his lowest figure of the year when fully healthy. This sets up as a “squeaky wheel gets the grease” game, as Cooks had some harsh comments after that game on Sunday. Perhaps this angers the coaching staff and gets Cooks in the doghouse, but that’s generally not how things work with star players. Enjoy the newfound discount and lower ownership. If you don’t trust cooks, there should certainly be targets to go around for Willie Snead, the ever consistent Michael Thomas, and Coby Fleener as well.

The Takeaway: As with the Lions, feel free to use any skill players from the Saints. Drew Brees is pretty easily the top quarterback of the week, while the other pieces are definitely in play too. Michael Thomas is a safe cash game option at this point, while Ingram and Cooks have generous upside for your GPP contests.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Los Angeles Rams						New England Patriots
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		13.5	44.5	15.5				-13.5	44.5	29
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.5	32	29	29		Offense	26.6	6	7	7
Opp. Defense	17.9	3	16	13		Opp. Defense	21.5	12	7	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	20	16	7	14		Los Angeles Rams	12	17	19	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	81	54	4	788		Edelman	100	64	2	617
Austin	79	44	3	401		Hogan	35	23	2	461
Quick	50	30	3	445		Amendola	25	20	4	215
Kendricks	68	41	2	420		Gronkowski	38	25	3	540

Notable injuries and suspensions: Tavon Austin (LA WR) – Doubtful (Chest) / Rob Gronkowski (NE TE) – Out (Back) / Martellus Bennett (NE TE) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle) / Tom Brady (NE QB) – Questionable but expected to play (Knee) / Julian Edelman (NE WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot) / Chris Hogan (NE WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Back)

LA Matchup Rating: 3.0
NE Matchup Rating: 7.0

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback: The Rams have perhaps the lowest team total that I have seen all year at 15.50 points. That is somewhat surprising considering the offense wasn’t horrendous last week against the Saints, and it’s not like the Patriots have a shut down defense. That said, Jared Goff did throw for just 214 yards despite the three touchdowns in New Orleans, and the team has struggled all year to score points. Goff is not a fantasy option in this matchup, regardless of how cheap you can find him. If he had a home game against a bad defense, he might be worth a look as a cheap flier. That’s just not the case.

Running Back: If you want a guy that can give you 60 rushing yards with a 33% chance of scoring a touchdown, Todd Gurley is your man. He has yet to top 85 yards in any game this season, and he has just one run of 20 or more yards. Aim for more upside at your running back spots, especially since the Rams might have to abandon the run early as two touchdown underdogs in this game.

Pass Catchers: Kenny Britt continues to put up respectable numbers as the clear top receiver for the Rams, and he doesn’t get much attention nationally because the team is so bad. I am very concerned about the low total in this game, but that should force the Rams to the air a lot. If forced to take one player on the team, Britt would be the guy I choose. That’s not necessarily a ringing endorsement, but he fits better than the limited upside of Lance Kendricks or the inconsistency of Tavon Austin.

The Takeaway: The Rams own a very low team total this week, and you are not missing out on much if you avoid the whole team. If targeting anyone, Kenny Britt makes the most sense. New England will be a popular defensive selection this week, but they have under-performed in several favorable matchups already this season. I don’t hate the play, but I will avoid them in GPPs if they are going to be the “chalky” pick of the week (like the Titans a week ago).

New England Patriots

Quarterback: The Rams have had respectable defensive numbers this season, but Drew Brees showed last week what a good offense can do to them. The Saints marched their way to seven offensive touchdowns in the game, and it would surprise absolutely nobody if the Patriots did the same. New England should dominate the clock in this game, and there’s a chance that they can pound the ball on the ground by the time the second half comes around — this is one of the largest spreads we have seen all season. Brady is certainly fine, and there is plenty of upside here, but you don’t have to spend on him in your cash games this week.

Running Back: New England predictably used their passing down guys more often last week, as the snaps were almost an even split between LeGarrette Blount (27), James White (26), and Dion Lewis (23). This profiles as more of a “Blount week” with the Patriots likely to be nursing a large lead in the second half. However, that is not a guarantee. Bill Belichick loves to keep opponents guessing with game plans, so all of the guys carry plenty of risk. There aren’t enough touches to support fantasy production for three guys. Until there is an injury, this has to be a hands-off situation for me, especially for as long as Blount remains more expensive than the others.

Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski returned a week ago only to be sidelined by yet another new injury, leaving early with a back ailment. He has not practiced yet this week (as of Wednesday), and it seems silly for the Patriots to rush him back for a game that they should win handily. Should he sit out this week, the entire receiving corps around him gets a boost. Malcolm Mitchell has been playing very well of late, but he only played on 47% of the snaps last week with Chris Hogan healthy again. Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett would be the safest targets if Gronk is out. Check back later in the week for an update.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Gronkowski is out for the year with his injury. This gives an obvious upgrade to all the other New England receivers. Edelman, Bennett, and Hogan continue to be listed as questionable, but only Bennett seems to be significantly less than 100%. All of them are in play with Gronk out, but you don’t need them in a game that New England should have well in command by the second half.

The Takeaway: The Patriots are going to score points in this game, but there is some risk. New England loves to spread the ball around, and they are also huge favorites here. Tom Brady is obviously safe, but he’s not a must play this week. The running back triumvirate makes all of them risky plays. The pass catchers get a boost if Rob Gronkowski is out, a situation that will need to be monitored throughout the week.

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