RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 15

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-12-19 06:49:46

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get the best perks in the industry.

INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams						Seattle Seahawks
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		15	38.5	11.75				-15	38.5	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	14.9	32	29	30		Offense	21.1	22	11	19
Opp. Defense	17.8	3	9	13		Opp. Defense	23.4	19	7	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	8	2	21	4		Los Angeles Rams	13	19	30	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	99	63	5	937		Baldwin	96	74	5	878
Austin	90	51	3	463		Kearse	71	35	0	429
Quick	61	36	3	503		Lockett	55	32	0	429
Kendricks	76	44	2	446		Graham	83	58	5	785

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

LA Matchup Rating: 2.5
SEA Matchup Rating: 8.0

Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback: The Rams have done it! They have finally stopped breast feeding off Jeff Fisher, and the internet sure had a field day with that news on Monday. Even some of the players seem pleased, as evidenced by tweets from the likes of Tavon Austin and Todd Gurley. The problem is that the Rams now have a new interim coach, and they are playing on a short week on the road against a good team that just got embarrassed a week ago. The Rams also aren’t a good team, obviously. The combination of all these factors makes this game scream like a blowout. Seattle is a 15 point favorite, and the Rams’ 12 point implied team total is the lowest I have ever seen in an NFL game. Just say no to Jared Goff.

Running Backs: Well, Todd Gurley somehow became chalk last week. I am not sure how that happened, but his mediocre season continues. His longest run against the Falcons was nine yards, and he still has just one 20 yard run on the season to go along with zero 100-yard games. If he couldn’t perform against the Falcons, he certainly can’t be expected to perform well against the Seahawks. Throw in the anticipated game flow which features the Rams as 15 point underdogs, and you have an easy pass.

Pass Catchers: Don’t do it.

The Takeaway: Although Seattle’s defense is missing some key pieces, they don’t need to be at full strength to dominate the Rams, who are in the worst possible spot this week. Fire up Seattle’s defense as a top unit. They are going to come out with something to prove after playing poorly a week ago, and this could very easily be a 30-0 demolition. The Rams are better off without Jeff Fisher, but that’s not going to show up in three days, let alone before a new coach gets hired.

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: Hopefully the weather in Green Bay took you off Russell Wilson last week, as there were logical pivots at his price point. The Seahawks really struggled in the wintry conditions, turning the ball over six times against an average defense. The Rams have slipped in pass defense of late, and they now rank 20th in DVOA in that department. I don’t mind Wilson here, but I do worry that we won’t have to do a lot in order for the Seahawks to win this game. The Seahawks are massive 15 point favorites here, and Wilson might not be putting up much for stats in the second half of this one. He obviously makes sense if you need a quarterback on the Monday/Thursday slate, because you are definitely using him over Goff on the other side (assuming you didn’t already play Brady or Flacco). On the full week slates, however, I will likely pass on Wilson in Week 15.

Running Backs: Thomas Rawls played on just 52% of the snaps in Week 14, but a lot of that was due to game flow. The game was flat out over after three quarters. His snap count was down a bit the week prior because he had to go through concussion protocol in the first half, and that game turned into a blowout, too. This week profiles as the game where the Seahawks should ride Rawls for a huge workload. He is reasonably priced at $6,400 on FanDuel and $5,900 on DraftKings, and some players might avoid him thanks to the recent snap counts. Don’t worry about that. Rawls should get 20-25 touches in this game, and he is one of the best point-per-dollar projected running backs on the entire slate.

Pass Catchers: Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin were both massive disappointments in Week 14, and this week certainly can’t go much worse for that duo. Like I wrote above, my biggest worry here is game flow. With so many other mid-range receivers to choose from, I will likely avoid Baldwin on the full week slates. You can play him on the Monday/Thursday slate if you need a WR option from this game. Graham also doesn’t intrigue me a ton this week, as the Rams have been good against tight ends and held Graham to three catches for 42 yards in Week 2. It must be noted that Graham is healthier now than he was back then, but he’s still not my favorite tight end option on this slate. I’m pessimistic on how much upside there is with Baldwin and Graham in a game that could turn into a blowout.

The Takeaway: Seattle is in a fine spot here against a team that is in shambles, but the big question is how close this game will be. If the Seahawks get out to a four touchdown lead, you might see the starters pulled after three quarters. There is risk here. I will likely stick to Thomas Rawls, who has had unusual circumstances limit his performance of late, but that has also depressed his price for DFS purposes. He should get a full workload this week, and he is one of my favorite running back options of the week. Seattle’s defense, of course, is also in play. Despite their injuries, they should easily handle the Rams in this one.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Miami Dolphins						New York Jets
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2	38	20				2	38	18
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.6	20	27	13		Offense	17.6	28	28	10
Opp. Defense	24.9	24	20	16		Opp. Defense	23.2	17	10	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	16	20	17	18		Miami Dolphins	29	15	19	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Landry	109	79	2	925		Marshall	114	57	3	743
Parker	71	46	3	597		Enunwa	83	47	4	682
Stills	63	34	6	598		Marshall	18	11	1	140
Sims	27	20	2	215		Bostick	9	7	0	56

Notable injuries and suspensions: Ryan Tannehill (MIA QB) – Out (Knee) / Matt Forte (NYJ RB) – Questionable (Knee) / Brandon Marshall (NYJ WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Quincy Enunwa (NYJ WR) – Questionable (Ribs)

MIA Matchup Rating: 6.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.0

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: The Dolphins got a much needed win over the Cardinals last week, so they are still in the AFC playoff race. However, they did lose their quarterback for the rest of the regular season, as Ryan Tannehill went out with a sprained ACL and MCL. Even though the Jets have an abysmal pass defense, it’s still very hard to trust Matt Moore for fantasy purposes. Colin Kaepernick only threw for 133 yards against the Jets, so it’s not like production is a lock no matter how bad the Jets are in pass coverage. They may rank last in DVOA, but they are only a few yards below league average in terms of per-game numbers allowed. This game has the lowest overall Vegas total of the week at 38 points, so we really don’t need to force anyone in at any position, let alone a fill-in backup quarterback.

Running Backs: This is an interesting discussion. The Jets are normally stout against the run, and they rank 6th in DVOA against the run this year. However, we have two points that should make us pause here. First, Carlos Hyde gashed this defense for 193 rushing yards on just 17 carries a week ago, while Shaun Draughn added 32 yards of his own. Second, Jay Ajayi ran for 111 yards on 24 carries against this Jets team a few weeks ago. The counter-point to this is that Ajayi has really been struggling of late, and he rushed for just 48 yards on 20 carries last week. I will probably side with the larger sample size with the Jets defense and the recent performance of Ajayi, as opposed to the recent data and Ajayi’s solid first game against them. I totally see the other side of the argument, though.

Pass Catchers: It has been a constant struggle throughout the entire season to peg who would perform best between PPR machine Jarvis Landry, deep threat Kenny Stills, and play-maker DeVante Parker. Now, they are going to have a backup quarterback throwing to them. This isn’t an ideal situation. We don’t have much data on Moore this year, so we can’t accurately peg who he is going to favor. If I had to pick one guy, I would opt for Landry, who should see plenty of targets on short routes and check-downs. He is the most expensive of the group, but he is still relatively affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m not looking anywhere else within this group in Week 15.

The Takeaway: This game isn’t going to feature a lot of firepower. Jarvis Landry has the least risk of the wide receivers, and he is in play despite the uncertainty at quarterback. Speaking of that, I can’t trust Moore even in a favorable matchup. Jay Ajayi could be an interesting GPP play given the recent struggles of the Jets’ normally stout rush defense, but I will likely avoid him as well.

New York Jets

Quarterback: We have our first “exciting” Saturday evening game of the year, and it’s Matt Moore against Bryce Petty! How great is that! The Jets somehow pulled off a victory despite digging a deep hole against the 49ers, but Petty didn’t throw a single touchdown pass in the game. He is not a fantasy option against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in DVOA against the pass. If you are looking to take a chance on a dirt cheap quarterback from this game, I would opt for Moore over Petty. Again, I’m not playing either. Let’s not forget that Vegas has stamped a 38 point total on this game.

Running Backs: The team is saying that Matt Forte is day to day, but Forte said he heard “cracking and popping” in his knee when he got injured. That suggests he is highly unlikely to play this week, especially since this game is being played on Saturday. That leaves the backfield to Bilal Powell, who played basically every snap after Forte got injured. It was against the 49ers poor rush defense, so we have to take the results with a grain of salt, but nobody can complain about 29 carries for 145 yards and two touchdowns. Powell is a great value at $6,200 on FanDuel, and he remains a solid play at $5,600 on DraftKings (remember, the average player is about $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings thanks to the salary cap differences between the sites). Despite the low total in this game, you can use Powell in any format. This is obviously under the assumption that Forte is eventually ruled out, so keep an eye on his status.

Pass Catchers: It is very clear that Bryce Petty loves throwing to Robby Anderson. He led the team in targets for the second straight week, hauling in six of 11 targets for 99 yards against the 49ers. He has also played on at least 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in every game since Week 4. Anderson remains priced under $5,000 on both sites, and he is the preferred value option over Quincy Enunwa. Brandon Marshall continues to see his price drop, but he is out of play until we see him establish some sort of rapport with his new quarterback. It’s a very DeAndre Hopkins-esque situation here.

The Takeaway: Bilal Powell is a fine mid-range play at running back, assuming Matt Forte doesn’t suit up this week. Powell should have the backfield all to himself in that case, especially after his dynamic performance against the 49ers. The passing game is tough to trust with a rookie quarterback at the helm, but Robbie Anderson remains a fine value play on virtually every DFS site. He clearly has the best connection with Bryce Petty.

SATURDAY AM UPDATE – Forte and Marshall are both game time decisions. It sounds like both will be limited even if they do play. Powell carries a little more risk at RB now. Anderson gets a bump at WR with both Marshall and Enunwa banged up.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Green Bay Packers						Chicago Bears
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6.5	40.5	23.5				6.5	40.5	17
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.6	7	10	22		Offense	17.0	30	16	20
Opp. Defense	22.3	15	6	19		Opp. Defense	24.0	21	22	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	10	4	23	8		Green Bay Packers	22	12	25	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	125	75	12	913		Royal	43	33	2	369
Cobb	83	60	4	610		Meredith	66	44	3	588
Adams	99	63	9	897		Wilson	16	9	1	160
Cook	30	17	1	199		Paulsen	10	3	0	15

Notable injuries and suspensions: James Starks (GB RB) – Doubtful (Concussion) / Christine Michael (GB RB) – Questionable (Illness) / Randall Cobb (GB WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle) / Aaron Rodgers (GB QB) – Questionable but expected to play (Calf) / Eddie Royal (CHI WR) – Out (Toe) / Marquess Wilson (CHI WR) – Out (Groin)

GB Matchup Rating: 7.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.0

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback: This is a cautious matchup rating for the Packers, with the realization that this might be the coldest NFL game of the year in terms of temperature. I live about two hours straight west of Chicago, and our current forecast shows a HIGH temperature of one degree on Sunday. We are talking about bone-chilling cold here. Now, these two teams are obviously familiar with playing in the cold, but I can sense this game being a lot like the Seattle/Minnesota playoff game from a year ago. If you recall, that game didn’t feature a whole lot of offense. The Bears rank in the middle of the pack in DVOA against the pass (14th), but they rank 6th best in terms of yardage allowed. A lot of that is due to the fact that teams get leads on the Bears and end up running the ball a lot, and the Packers might go with a run-heavier approach in the cold weather. I am not going to talk you off Aaron Rodgers if you want to play him, but these aren’t ideal circumstances. Rodgers is banged up right now, and playing in below zero temperatures isn’t going to make his calves and hamstrings feel great.

Running Backs: The only clarity that we have on the Green Bay backfield situation is that Ty Montgomery is no longer a wide receiver. Thanks for that, Mike McCarthy. Montgomery led the running backs in snaps last week with 30, while Christine Michael logged 17 and James Starks managed just seven. Starks is clearly last on the totem pole at this point, but this situation is still best left avoided for fantasy purposes as long as three guys are in the mix. Aaron Ripkowski is also around to snag some goal line looks, though Montgomery did get a one yard touchdown against the Seahawks. I will be avoiding this whole group. Montgomery isn’t cheap enough on DraftKings (where he is still listed as a WR), and he isn’t worth utilizing in one of your RB spots on FanDuel.

SATURDAY UPDATE – This situation may be changing. Starks is likely out with a concussion, and Michael has missed practice with an illness. Give Montgomery a big bump, especially if Michael happens to be limited.

Pass Catchers: Even in a difficult matchup against the Seahawks, Jordy Nelson continued his resurgence with a pair of touchdown grabs last week. He now leads the NFL with 12 touchdowns on the year, and this matchup certainly isn’t one to slow him down. The only thing that could slow him down is the cold weather. Davante Adams has emerged as the clear #2 receiver on the team, and he hauled in a long touchdown in the first quarter against Seattle on his way to another 100 yard day. Randall Cobb was hampered by an ankle injury last week and is the clear #3 option now. Nelson and Adams are the guys you want here, but I wouldn’t consider either guy a must play because of the weather.

The Takeaway: The cold weather is going to impact this game, and it has a relatively low total of 43 points. The Packers should be able to move the ball, but it likely won’t come with the ease that most people expect. The three-headed running back situation is one to avoid. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams are reasonable plays, but it’s not like they come at much of a value these days. You don’t have to reach for anyone here, if you don’t feel comfortable with it in your roster build.

Chicago Bears

Quarterback: Matt Barkley performed reasonably well last week against the Lions, but he is still primarily going to be used in a game manager type role. His results last week show this, as he threw for 212 yards and one touchdown in that game. I am certainly not going to use him in the bitter cold against a Packers defense that has shown improvement in recent weeks. This is an easy pass.

Running Backs: Jeremy Langford got a few more snaps last week, as the Bears are using him more in passing down situations. Jordan Howard does not do well at catching the football. In close games, however, Howard is still going to be the guy getting the bulk of the carries. He ran for 86 yards on 13 carries against the Lions for a fantastic 6.6 yards per carry average, and the Bears should have given him the ball more than that. They were never out of reach in the game, and it is strange that Howard didn’t get more than 13 carries. Green Bay has a solid rush defense, but they have slipped to 9th in DVOA in that department. I prefer some of the other mid-range running backs this week, but I don’t mind Howard as a likely 5% owned GPP pivot from the popular guys.

Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery is back from his suspension this week, so that removes any value from fringe options like Josh Bellamy and Cameron Meredith. We aren’t really getting a value price tag with him upon his return, and my interest is limited with the cold weather and Barkley at quarterback. Given the recent improved play in the Green Bay secondary, there isn’t much to like here.

The Takeaway: I am not super interested in anyone from the Bears this week. Their implied team total sits at a meager 17 points in this game. Jordan Howard is a reasonable GPP option at running back as he is likely to be low owned, but that’s about where my interest ends. The Packers defense is actually a sneaky good play this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers						Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	44	23.5				3	44	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.4	12	12	9		Offense	20.6	23	9	8
Opp. Defense	20.7	11	11	25		Opp. Defense	19.7	9	21	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	24	21	3	32		Pittsburgh Steelers	5	29	4	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	138	93	11	1,130		Green	100	66	4	964
Heyward-Bey	15	5	2	68		LaFell	77	44	5	574
Coates	45	20	2	425		Boyd	71	48	1	526
Green	26	13	1	232		Eifert	44	28	5	385

Notable injuries and suspensions: A.J. Green (CIN WR) – Doubtful (Hamstring)

PIT Matchup Rating: 7.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback: The Steelers rode Le’Veon Bell to victory in the snow in Buffalo last week, and the Steelers have been the victim of some tough weather games this year. In addition to last week’s game, they had a game in Cleveland which featured very heavy winds. It is no surprise that Ben Roethlisberger has struggled in those two contests. Outside of those games, he has performed just fine. Don’t fret about the recent performances, and enjoy the discount for which he can currently be obtained. Cincinnati has checked out on the 2016 season, and they rank in the bottom half of the league in DVOA against both the run and the pass. As long as the weather cooperates, Roethlisberger is a great option at quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings at his now discounted price.

Running Backs: If you didn’t have Le’Veon Bell last week, you probably had a tough go of it. He was very highly owned, and he had perhaps the best offensive performance of the entire season with 236 rushing yards, 298 total yards, and three touchdowns against the Bills. He is easier to fit on FanDuel than DraftKings, and that is often the case for the “stud” players. Whereas the average player is generally around $1,000 more expensive on FD than DK, FD also has a lower cap on the stud players. That means guys like Bell and David Johnson are actually cheaper on FD than DK. That obviously makes them great FanDuel plays, but we must also account for the value that Bell provides in the full PPR format that DK offers. This is a really interesting game theory discussion that I could write pages about, but that’s not ideal for our setting here. Suffice it to say that Bell is obviously a fine play if you can fit him into your lineups, especially if you aren’t playing Roethlisberger at quarterback. Bell has a floor that is virtually unmatched in fantasy (outside of Johnson), and his ceiling is pretty darn good, too (as we saw last week).

Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown has been conspicuously quiet of late, failing to top 100 yards in any of his last four games — though he did score three touchdowns against the Colts on Thanksgiving. Two of those performances can be attributed to weather, and the targets have still been there. I have a feeling that Pittsburgh goes with more of an aerial-focused attack in this game. It is also worth noting that every game is important for the Steelers as they attempt to hold off the Ravens in the AFC North. This is a get right spot for Brown, and he is $900 cheaper than Bell on FD and $1,400 cheaper than Bell on DK. Brown will also carry less ownership than his teammate, making him a fine play in GPP formats in addition to cash games. Ladarius Green is the only other pass catcher of interest here, but he played on less than 40% of the snaps against the Bills. That makes him a GPP-only option at tight end. I can’t trust any of the other inconsistent wide receivers the Steelers throw out there.

The Takeaway: It’s all about the Killer B’s for the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown have been relatively quiet of late, but this should be a spot for them to get back on track. They also won’t have the ownership of Le’Veon Bell, so I like the contrarian Roethlisberger/Brown GPP stack this week. Of course, Bell is a fine play in his own right, and he is about as much of a lock as they come these days. I won’t talk you off any of the big three in this one, though I’m really not interested in anyone else from this team.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: This is an interesting spot for Andy Dalton. He has actually been playing well of late, though he didn’t have to throw the ball much in the second half of last week’s win over the lowly Browns. The Bengals will likely be playing from behind in this game, too, which means we could see an increased number of pass attempts in this game. Pittsburgh has a middle of the pack pass defense, and Dalton is very cheap for DFS purposes. He is by no means a top play, but I would choose him in the value range over guys like Matt Moore and Matt Barkley. That’s not a ringing endorsement, but you can go here in a GPP if you want.

Running Backs: After a string of tough matchups against the likes of the Ravens and Eagles, Jeremy Hill finally had a solid performance a week ago. He rushed for 111 yards on 25 carries against the Browns, and he added three catches for 31 yards. If he is going to continue to provide some contributions in the passing game, it definitely adds to his fantasy value. He’s not cheap enough to entice me in this game, especially since he is generally game-flow dependent. I’ll pass on Hill in this spot.

Pass Catchers: We still don’t have clarity on A.J. Green for this week, and it sounds like he might return to practice here in the middle of the week. If he plays, that would downgrade the outlook for guys like Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd, and Tyler Eifert. If he sits, the other three guys maintain their value. This is a key spot to monitor throughout the week, especially if you are planning on having exposure to this passing game. Check back later for an update.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Green is listed as doubtful, but he will go through a pre-game workout to see if he can play. Only two players listed as doubtful have played all year, so tentatively expect Green to sit. This preserves some value for Eifert, LaFell, and Boyd.

The Takeaway: The Bengals have a relatively low team total here, and I am surprised to see the game total at just 44 points in this one. That seems a bit low in my opinion. I will avoid Jeremy Hill here, but I don’t mind a piece or two from the passing game. Who to target is largely dependent on news regarding A.J. Green, so hopefully we will get some clarity in the next few days.

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