NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Three
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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
| Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 46 | 24.5 | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 5 | 3 | 16 | Offense | 15.0 | 30 | 20 | 30 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.7 | 23 | 8 | 30 | Opp. Defense | 28.3 | 27 | 16 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 18 | 23 | 11 | 14 | Detroit Lions | 32 | 10 | 19 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 22 | 13 | 0 | 94 | Jeffery | 20 | 14 | 0 | 271 | |
| Jones | 29 | 18 | 2 | 408 | White | 27 | 13 | 0 | 132 | |
| Boldin | 16 | 11 | 2 | 105 | Royal | 15 | 11 | 1 | 130 | |
| Ebron | 20 | 14 | 1 | 168 | Miller | 18 | 15 | 2 | 125 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Eric Ebron (DET TE) – Questionable (Ankle) / DeAndre Levy (DET LB) – Out (Quadriceps) / Ziggy Ansah (DET DE) – Out (Ankle) / Marvin Jones (DET WR) – Questionable but fully expected to play (Hamstring) / Ka’Deem Carey (CHI RB) – Doubtful (Hamstring) / Jeremy Langford (CHI RB) – Doubtful (Ankle) / Alshon Jeffery (CHI WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Hamstring) / Jay Cutler (CHI QB) – Doubtful (Thumb) / Danny Trevathan (CHI LB) – Doubtful (Thumb)
DET Matchup Rating: 7.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 6.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: On the surface, this sets up as a fine matchup for Matthew Stafford and the Lions. Stafford has been putting up solid numbers this season in what should remain a pass-happy Detroit offense. Starting running back Ameer Abdullah is out, which leaves Theo Riddick as the primary ball carrier. Riddick is better in the passing game than he is in the running game, for the most part. Stafford threw for 385 yards last week against Green Bay, but a lot of that was attributable to the Lions falling behind by four scores in the first half. In addition, Green Bay has the best rush defense in football. The Bears are the opposite, in that they have been better against the pass this year. However, they just lost top CB Kyle Fuller to injured reserve, and a lot of the stats are skewed because the Bears have fallen behind in every game, so teams have run on them more often. In any case, Stafford is certainly in play this week regardless of your game format.
Running Backs: Theo Riddick is an obvious asset in PPR formats, though I wouldn’t play him on a half PPR site like FanDuel. His rushing upside is limited, as evidenced by his ten carry, nine yard performance against the Packers. Expect Dwayne Washington to continue to eat into the early down and goal line workload, and this may be a cheeky spot to play Washington in a GPP. He won’t be this cheap around the DFS industry for very long. If the Lions get a lead in this game, he could become the second half hammer.
Pass Catchers: Marvin Jones is good, but he’s not this good. He currently leads the NFL with 408 receiving yards, but one of his long touchdowns last week was simply a 100% blown coverage. Now, I don’t expect the Fuller-less Bears to slow him down, but I don’t mind playing the fade or swerving to under-performing teammate Golden Tate or tight end Eric Ebron in GPP formats this week. Ebron is a tight end in a wide receiver’s body, and he is going to have a monster game sometime soon. It could very well come against the Bears.
The Takeaway: Detroit’s offense should put up some points in this one, but it’s a little bit tricky to peg where they will come from. Marvin Jones will regress at some point, and Golden Tate will improve at some point. Eric Ebron will have some big games. Dwayne Washington could start to become the primary rushing threat over Theo Riddick. Stafford is the safest option here, though everyone is in play.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: The Bears are a mess. I believe they are the worst team in the NFL, and yes, that includes the Browns. Brian Hoyer is who he is, a journeyman backup that should not be starting for a team in 2016. Alas, the Bears have no choice with Jay Cutler on the sidelines. Even in an average to above average matchup, it’s hard to put faith in Hoyer for DFS purposes. That said, he is basically as cheap as they come at $6,000 on FanDuel and $5,000 on DraftKings. He is a “serviceable” quarterback that can put up numbers, especially if the Bears fall behind again. Remember, he threw two touchdowns to Zach Miller in his first start. I understand the logic in a GPP, but there’s enough value at other positions where you don’t have to reach for Hoyer in cash games. A reliable quarterback performance is too important in those formats to take this chance.
Running Backs: Speaking value at other positions, I present to you Jordan Howard. With Jeremy Langford headed toward a multi-week absence, Jordan Howard and Ka’Deem Carey will split reps at running back. Howard has been by far the best runner on this Bears team in 2016, and he looked comfortable last week against Dallas. He averaged five yards per carry on nine totes and chipped in four catches for 47 yards, too. The Bears are actually only three point underdogs here, and Howard is one of the best value plays of the week. He should see 14-17 carries and grab a few catches on top of that. For $5,600 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings, there is plenty of upside with little downside risk. I’ll take that in any game format.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery is obviously the Bears’ favorite target, but he is going to see consistent double coverage until someone else makes opponents pay. Kevin White has not shown an ability to do that, though Hoyer tossed a massive 14 targets White’s way last week. He caught six of them for 62 yards, which is the definition of “meh.” Zach Miller was the primary red zone target and put up a solid 8/78/2 line. A lot of this was volume-induced, as Hoyer was forced to throw 49 passes with the Bears in come-from-way-behind mode. If that happens again, we have upside here. If not, the Bears pass catchers will struggle to approach anything close to these numbers. I’ll likely stick with the backfield value in Howard, though Miller is intriguing given the Lions’ tendency to struggle against tight ends.
The Takeaway: Jordan Howard is one of the more obvious value plays of the week. If you want to play a GPP fade with him, perhaps consider a Hoyer/Jeffery or Hoyer/Miller QB/WR or QB/TE pairing to leverage the Howard fade. It’s a risky proposition that could pay off, but let’s not forget that this Bears team is bad. Perhaps that will cause them to fall behind yet again, leading to more pass attempts. There’s plenty of risk/reward on this whole offense, especially given their respective price tags.
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Denver Broncos | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44 | 23.5 | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | Offense | 23.3 | 16 | 6 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 33.7 | 32 | 18 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 8 | 5 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 | 26 | 27 | 6 | Denver Broncos | 10 | 20 | 3 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 20 | 15 | 1 | 238 | Evans | 37 | 21 | 3 | 301 | |
| Sanders | 29 | 17 | 2 | 205 | Jackson | 22 | 9 | 0 | 99 | |
| Fowler | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | Humphries | 25 | 18 | 0 | 201 | |
| Green | 8 | 7 | 0 | 74 | Brate | 18 | 11 | 2 | 92 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Virgil Green (DEN TE) – Out (Calf) / DeMarcus Ware (DEN LB) – Out (Forearm) / Doug Martin (TB RB) – Out (Hamstring)
DEN Matchup Rating: 7.0
TB Matchup Rating: 3.0
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: The Bengals forced Denver to the air last week, and Trevor Siemian quieted a few of his doubters with his best NFL performance to date. He tossed for 312 yards and four touchdowns on the day en route to an impressive road victory. He draws a juicy matchup this week against Tampa Bay and their well-known “funnel defense” which is much better against the run than against the pass. The stats don’t look as bad after last week, but that’s because they faced Case Keenum. Siemian isn’t really cheap enough to grab my eye here, though he is a better bargain at $5,400 on DraftKings. He comes up in the middle of the pack in my QB list this week. There is so much value at RB, WR, and TE that I can’t fathom playing him in cash games in any case.
Running Backs: C.J. Anderson continues to get the bulk of the work in the Denver backfield, playing around 73% of the snaps so far this season. He was bottled up last week against the Bengals, as Cincinnati made a concerted effort to take Anderson away and force Siemian to beat them through the air (which he did). Expect a similar approach out of Tampa Bay this week, and as I already mentioned, their defense is generally better against the run. I’ll pass on Anderson in this spot. There are better expensive running backs out there.
Pass Catchers: In the past, we always enjoyed targeting the Denver wide receivers because so many of the targets were sent to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. Last week was a flash back to those times, as Sanders and Thomas combined for 20 of the 35 targets from Siemian. Sanders parlayed 13 targets into a 9/117/2 line, and Thomas made the most of his seven targets with a 6/100/1 line. They are both in play this week, with Thomas checking in as $1,000 more expensive than Sanders on FanDuel and just $300 more expensive on DraftKings. I would generally opt for Sanders on FD and Thomas on DK based on these prices, but they are both in play on either site.
The Takeaway: Expect the Bucs to take a similar approach that the Bengals did a week ago, attempting to force Trevor Siemian to beat them through the air. I don’t mind targeting the Denver passing attack here, with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas both in play. I will avoid C.J. Anderson this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Jameis Winston: Garbage Time Hero. This film is coming soon to a theater near you. As the Buccaneers tried to hang with the Rams last week, Winston was forced to the air 58 times, and he threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns in the process. Alas, this week presents a different story. Against Denver’s suffocating secondary, I want no part of Mr. Winston in Week 4. He struggled to a 52% completion percentage and four interceptions against the last tough defense in played (Arizona in Week 2).
Running Backs: With Doug Martin sidelined, Charles Sims pretty much has a firm grasp on the starting gig in the backfield. They did rotate Jacquizz Rodgers in for one series in each half, but Sims played on 85% of the offensive snaps last week. The rushing production wasn’t there as the Bucs were in comeback mode for much of the game, but Sims did a fine job in the passing game, catching six passes for 69 yards in the contest. His price tag still sits at an affordable $6,500 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings, but it’s a tough sell in a difficult matchup. His receiving prowess might come in handy on check downs in this game, and therefore I prefer Sims on full PPR sites like DK.
Pass Catchers: Adam Humphries was probably my best call in the Grind Down last week. Thanks, Adam! As with the quarterback situation, I want no part of Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, or Humphries against the best secondary in the league.
The Takeaway: Don’t bother looking at the Tampa Bay passing game in this one. You can make a case for Charles Sims, especially in full PPR formats, because he is capable of being a factor in the passing game.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
| Los Angeles Rams | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 43 | 17.5 | -8 | 43 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.3 | 29 | 30 | 22 | Offense | 26.3 | 9 | 10 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 12 | 6 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 12 | 17 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 16 | 12 | 4 | Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 21 | 15 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Britt | 22 | 14 | 0 | 199 | Fitzgerald | 33 | 21 | 3 | 222 | |
| Austin | 29 | 14 | 1 | 145 | Floyd | 24 | 9 | 1 | 134 | |
| Quick | 8 | 6 | 1 | 84 | Brown | 18 | 8 | 0 | 92 | |
| Kendricks | 13 | 6 | 0 | 76 | Fells | 7 | 6 | 0 | 46 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Kenny Britt (LA WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)
LA Matchup Rating: 2.0
ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: Against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, Case Keenum managed a stat line of 14-for-26 for 190 yards passing. Now he has to travel to Arizona to take on one of the best defenses in the league. Don’t play Case Keenum.
Running Backs: Arizona has been surprisingly susceptible to the run this year, so that is bound to be where the Rams try to attack. They showed that they are willing to ride Todd Gurley as long as games stay competitive, as he got the ball 27 times last week. Though he tallied just 85 rushing yards against a tough Tampa Bay front seven, he did manage a pair of goal line touchdown runs. There is significant risk here that the Rams will fall way behind and be forced to abandon the run, but Gurley is an interesting risk/reward GPP play that will come at a very low ownership percentage.
Pass Catchers: There’s no reason to get cute with the inefficient Tavon Austin or the unspectacular duo of Kenny Britt and Brian Quick, especially against a good Arizona secondary.
The Takeaway: The only player worth considering is Todd Gurley, and he even carries plenty of risk if the game flow goes against the Rams, which is a major risk with the Rams sitting as eight point underdogs in this game.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: If you have read the first three Grind Downs, you know I am of the opinion that Carson Palmer is on the Peyton Manning quarterback death train. So far, I am not that displeased with my call. Palmer looked awful against the Bills, barely completing 50% of his passes and throwing four interceptions without a single touchdown. The Rams have an average defense at every level, but that’s not going to entice me to overpay for Palmer. At $8,000 on FanDuel, he is a pass in every format. At $6,300 on DraftKings, there is a little more appeal. I’m still sticking to my “decline” mantra.
Running Backs: David Johnson is good. He single-handedly kept the Cardinals in last week’s game, and he draws a favorable game script here against the Rams in a game where the Cardinals should control the clock and win comfortably. He’s expensive, but he has such a high floor given his role and ability to contribute in the passing game. If he’s not the clear-cut #1 running back on the board this week, he’s awfully close to it.
Pass Catchers: Michael Floyd is still in the concussion protocol, but the early signs look good. If he doesn’t play, we have to give a massive bump to Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. This receiving corps is often hard to peg because they spread the targets around so much. As a result, this is important news to monitor. All three players had at least 11 targets last week, with Brown leading the team with 70 receiving yards. I am relatively lukewarm on all three players if Floyd is active. Keep an eye on the situation.
The Takeaway: Carson Palmer still doesn’t look quite right, and the downfall could really be occurring this year. That gives the passing game some risk, especially if the Cardinals use the running game and get out to a comfortable lead in this one. Palmer shouldn’t have to attempt 50 passes again. David Johnson is the top Cardinals player to target this week, and probably for many weeks to come.
New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers
| New Orleans Saints | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 53.5 | 24.75 | -4 | 53.5 | 28.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.3 | 9 | 1 | 28 | Offense | 29.0 | 3 | 16 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.3 | 19 | 31 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 32.0 | 31 | 25 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego Chargers | 27 | 27 | 17 | 28 | New Orleans Saints | 20 | 32 | 25 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooks | 26 | 15 | 2 | 224 | Benjamin | 21 | 17 | 2 | 229 | |
| Thomas | 22 | 17 | 1 | 185 | Inman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 45 | |
| Coleman | 12 | 9 | 0 | 93 | Williams | 20 | 11 | 1 | 201 | |
| Fleener | 23 | 10 | 1 | 144 | Gates | 9 | 6 | 1 | 35 | |
Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Delvin Breaux (NO CB) – Out (Fibula) / Willie Snead (NO WR) – Questionable (Toe) / Joey Bosa (SD DE) – Out (Hamstring) / Antonio Gates (SD TE) – Doubtful (Hamstring) / It is also worth noting that San Diego might be without two or three starting offensive linemen.
NO Matchup Rating: 7.5
SD Matchup Rating: 9.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Drew Brees is good. The Saints defense is bad. That will lead to Drew Brees having a fantastic fantasy season, as the Saints are going to need to score piles of points in every game. His home/road splits are a concern, but Brees is going to get 300 yard games in his sleep this season. He has already thrown for 1,062 yards in three games, putting him on pace for an NFL record 5,664 yard season. The Chargers rank in the bottom three of the NFL in pass defense, and it’s hard to see Brees getting shut down in this game. He’s the #2 overall quarterback on my board this week behind only Cam Newton.
Running Backs: Mark Ingram has struggled to put up fantasy stats so far this year, mainly because the Saints have often eschewed the run after falling behind. He still had a respectable 5.1 YPC average last week against the Falcons, and he even got involved in the passing game with four grabs for 30 yards and a touchdown. He is still playing just under 50% of the total snaps, and he needs a positive game flow to become a safe pick. That might not happen often with the state of the Saints’ defense. He is a GPP-only option until we see him become more reliable in terms of snap count.
Pass Catchers: Willie Snead’s absence last week opened the door for both Brandon Coleman and Michael Thomas, who each caught seven passes for over 70 yards, with Thomas finding the end zone on a short slant play. Coby Fleener also had his biggest game as a Saint, with a 7/109/1 line of his own. It was Brandin Cooks who was surprisingly bottled up with a two catch day, and Cooks is likely to see a lot of top CB Jason Verrett’s coverage in this game. I like Fleener a lot this week against a porous San Diego pass defense, and his price has yet to rise since his big game was on Monday. The other cheaper wide receivers are definitely in play if Snead happens to miss another game. Keep an eye on this situation closely.
The Takeaway: The Saints defense is so bad that their offense is going to have to put up piles of points every week. Drew Brees might break his own yardage records this year. With Brandin Cooks likely to see tough coverage once again, expect Coby Fleener, Michael Thomas, and Brandon Coleman to step up again, especially if Willie Snead is out.
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: The Saints defense is bad against the pass. The Chargers are expected to score around 30 points this week. You can play Phillip Rivers. There is always the chance that he puts up a dud, but in a pass happy offense against a bad defense, it’s hard to see him completely flopping.
Running Backs The Saints defense is REALLY bad against the run, ranking dead last in the league in that department. The Chargers are expected to score around 30 points this week. You can play Melvin Gordon. This unit got shredded by both Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman on Monday. In the absence of Danny Woodhead, Gordon’s snap rate went all the way up to 87% last week. That is great news for his outlook in this one, especially since he isn’t “premium” priced right now.
Pass Catchers: The Saints defense is bad. The Chargers are expected to score around 30 points this week. You can play Travis Benjamin or Tyrell Williams, and with Antonio Gates looking unlikely to be ready for this game, you can fire up Hunter Henry as a punt play at tight end against a Saints team that has been bad against the position in recent seasons. Based on the pricing and the targets from a week ago, Henry is my favorite play across the board, followed by Williams on DK and Benjamin on FD.
The Takeaway: Fire ‘em up. With the Chargers expected to score almost 30 points facing the worst defense in football, there isn’t a wrong move here. The Saints defense is basically the Coors Field of the NFL.
SATURDAY UPDATE – With some uncertainty on the offensive line, we have to at least downgrade this unit somewhat. To what extent we downgrade them is difficult to peg. Remember, the Saints are an awful defense.
