NFL Preseason Picks: Thursday/Friday Edition
Week 2 of the NFL Preseason continues tonight. DraftKings is running a two-game slate and FantasyAces is running a THU-FRI set that includes tonight’s games and tomorrow’s. Before we get into the picks, I need to provide a quick reminder. Preseason NFL is wildly unpredictable. We are searching for players who will play at least a quarter, and preferably closer to a half. With this being the second week of preseason, we can expect starters to play about one quarter, second teamers for a quarter and a half, and then third and fourth teamers for the rest of the game. Most of the targets listed below are second teamers. You are obviously free to use a starter on your team if you feel that they can score a touchdown in limited time. I’m not recommending starters below, but I will note any that are already declared out so you can avoid them.
Detroit at Washington
Detroit:
QB: Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore – As we saw last week, a case can be made for playing a starter in preseason. If the starting offense scores quickly, that TD could be all you need for your player to pay off. If you want to take Matthew Stafford here, you can, even though I’m not. After Stafford, we should see Moore and then Orlovsky. I’m leaning Moore over Orlovsky as long as he gets the second team reps again. If that changes, I like Orlovsky better.
Update: Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press confirmed, Orlovsky will play with the second team I like him better than Moore now*
RB: Ameer Abdullah –The options at RB are very limited on this slate. All things considered, Ameer Abdullah is probably the top option. Abdullah ran for 67 yards on just seven carries last week. He’s a tough fade on a two-game slate. If you want to dig a little deeper, George Winn and Zach Zenner are in a fierce battle for the #4 RB job. Last week, Zenner received 13 carries while Winn received just 4. I would rather have Zenner here. Also consider: Zach Zenner, George Winn
WR: Greg Salas – Last week, Salas ended up being the top play at WR with five catches for 92 yards and a TD. I wouldn’t blame you if you chased the points here and went back to the well with Salas. We should also get a good long look at Jeremy Ross and Ryan Broyles. They both need good showings to avoid being jumped on the depth chart and possibly cut. Also consider: Jeremy Ross, Ryan Broyles
TE: Jordan Thompson – Last week, I recommended Eric Ebron in this spot. You could go that direction again if you choose, but I’m leaning towards the backups here. Jordan Thompson, Casey Pierce, and Jordan Maxwell played 23, 22, 21 snaps respectively while Ebron only played 12. The smart move is to chase reps in preseason. Also Consider: Casey Pierce, Jordan Maxwell
Washington:
QB: Kirk Cousins – If we learned anything last week, it is that Kirk Cousins truly is the king of preseason hype. Last week, we saw RG3 play the first quarter and then Kirk Cousins for the entire second and part of the third. According to Gruden, the plan is for the starters to play about the same amount again on Thursday. That should open up enough playing time for “Captain Kirk” to make him a very good option. If you want to go with Robert Griffin instead, I don’t hate that idea either. He should play the whole first quarter and maybe the first drive of the second. Also consider: Robert Griffin
Update: According to John Keim of ESPN, Colt McCoy will play with the second team tonight and Kirk Cousins with the third team. This puts Colt McCoy in play and really hurts Cousins’ value. I have them as 1.) RG3 2.) McCoy 3.) Cousins now.
RB: Matt Jones – Last week the Washington RB carries went like this: Alfred Morris (8), Matt Jones (5), Chris Thompson (5), Trey Williams (7). I would expect something similar again this week. Picking the one that gets a TD is going to be the key. My guess is that guy is Matt Jones. I think he sees a few more touches this week. He had a sore ankle last week that may have slightly limited him.
WR: Andre Roberts and Rashad Ross – With Desean Jackson and Jamison Crowder still out, the younger Washington WRs should get some extended reps on Thursday. Last week, Andre Roberts had 4 catches for 71 yards on 4 targets. I would expect a similar role again this week. The other WR I like is Rashad Ross who was great in garbage time. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 68 yards. Ross actually played 31 snaps which were 47% of the team’s total. It looks like he is being given ample opportunity to make this team. Also consider: Ryan Grant, Evan Spencer
TE: Chase Dixon – The Redskins TEs have been a bit of a M.A.S.H. unit so far this preseason. Jordan Reed is still injured, and Logan Paulsen and Niles Paul were placed on IR this week. That should open up some reps for Chase Dixon and Devin Mahina. Of the two, I like Dixon better as he led the team last week with 44 snaps played. Also consider: Devin Mahina
Buffalo at Cleveland
Buffalo:
When breaking down this game, we need to consider the Bills injury situation at RB. LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Anthony Dixon, Bryce Brown, and Karlos Williams are all out. That leaves just Bronson Hill and Ricky Seale as the only two healthy RBs (neither is available on DraftKings). I think this gives a slight bump to QBs and WRs but it also bumps Cleveland’s defense.
QB: Tyrod Taylor – As Adam Levitan pointed out, Tyrod Taylor has played 280 career preseason snaps. On those plays, he has rushed 36 times for 237 yards. The Bills have a three-way competition at QB between Taylor, Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel. It looks like Taylor is being given enough opportunity to win the job. As far as DFS playability, I think it goes Taylor, Cassel, and then Manuel.
RB: Bills RBs – As I pointed out above, the Bills only have two RBs and you can’t play either on DK. If you are playing on FantasyAces, I would definitely give Bronson Hill and Ricky Seale a look. I like Hill slightly better but I wouldn’t be opposed to playing both and locking up nearly all the carries. I say nearly all, because WR Marcus Thigpen has worked some at RB and could see a few carries as well.
WR: Marquise Goodwin – The lack of healthy RBs should give the Buffalo WRs a slight bump. Here are the WR snap counts from last week versus Carolina. Chris Hogan (35), Robert Woods (33), Dezmin Lewis (27), Marquise Goodwin (23), Deonte Thompson (23), Sammy Watkins (18), Andre Davis (15), Tobais Palmer (13). Goodwin only played 23 snaps but he was second on the team with three targets. I’d expect both of those numbers to go up this week. After Goodwin, I like Robert Woods, and Deonte Thompson in that order. Also consider: Deonte Thompson. UPDATE: Robert Woods is OUT
TE: Charles Clay and Nick O’Leary – As Mike Rodak of ESPN pointed out this week, the Browns defensive line has owned the Bills offensive line in practice. The Browns racked up four sacks in nine plays at one point in practice. When pressure is getting to a QB, especially a young QB, the TE is usually used as a safety valve. I like Charles Clay and Nick O’Leary to catch a few check downs as the Browns pass rush gets to the QB often.
Cleveland
QB: Johnny Manziel – With Connor Shaw out with an injured thumb, the Browns are down to just three QBs. Josh McCown should run with the starters for a quarter or less. After that, we should see quite a bit of Johnny Manziel and then maybe a little bit of Thaddeus Lewis. With his running ability, and likely playing time, Manziel is firmly in the upper-tier of QB options for this slate.
RB: Isaiah Crowell – Will anyone seize the Browns RB job? Just four RBs played last week for the Browns (snap counts in parenthesis). They were Timothy Flanders (17), Jalen Parmele (13), Isaiah Crowell (13), and Terrance West (13). They all received between three and five carries and not a single one gained more than eight yards. My guess is that the Browns focus on running the ball more this week, but I think the carries still get split pretty evenly. I’m hesitant to pick anyone out of this group, but we may be forced to. For now, I’m leaning Crowell. Also consider: Timothy Flanders, Jalen Parmele, Terrance West
WR: Josh Lenz – One of the biggest disappointments for me last week was Josh Lenz. He played a team-high 30 snaps (54%) but managed just one catch for five yards on four targets. I’m expecting similar playing time and better results this week. I also like Vince Mayle, Darius Jennings and Travis Benjamin a little bit. They all played at least 30% of the offensive snaps last week. Also consider: Vince Mayle, Darius Jennings, Travis Benjamin
TE: Emmanuel Bibbs – Last week, Bibbs played 28 offensive snaps and registered three catches for 29 yards on three targets. I like him again this week. Right behind Bibbs, I like Rob Housler as well. He played 26 snaps but only managed one target. Also consider: Rob Housler
Atlanta at New York Jets
Atlanta
QB: T.J. Yates – Atlanta playing time should be about the same this week as last. Matt Ryan played 10 snaps, Sean Renfree 23, and T.J. Yates 32. Both Renfree and Yates were unimpressive last week and rumors even emerged that the Falcons are interested in veteran Rex Grossman. Yates needs a good showing to hold onto his spot as the backup QB. He makes a fine option on both DK and especially FantasyAces where you need 2 QBs.
UPDATE: Sean Renfree will play with the second team tonight instead of T.J. Yates. Based on probable playing time I now like Renfree over Yates.
RB: Antone Smith – From this far out, it is hard to get a strong read on the Atlanta backfield. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both sat out last week with hamstring injuries they are game time decisions tonight,. If both are out again, that should leave plenty of work for their backups. Antone Smith also missed practice all week and is unlikely to play. That leaves Jerome Smith Terron Ward and Michael Ford. Make sure to get clarity on this situation on Friday. As of now, I like Jerome Smith over the other two but Ward is closely behind. Also consider: Terron Ward
WR: Justin Hardy – Star WR Julio Jones caught 4 balls for 61 yards and TD last week. I don’t recommend starters in the first two weeks of preseason, but that is hard to ignore. After Jones, the star at WR was Justin Hardy who caught three of six targets for 41 yards. He also played a team-high 35 snaps. After Hardy, I like Marquez Clark and Nick Williams but they each played only 15 snaps last week. Also consider: Marquez Clark, Nick Williams
TE: Levine Toilolo – Third-string TE Levine Toilolo is doing everything he can to make this team. He played 25 snaps last week and caught three of four targets for 36 yards. He should be a safe option at TE again this week.
New York Jets
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty – If you read last week’s article and followed my advice on Ryan Fitzpatrick, I apologize. With Geno Smith injured, I assumed the QB reps would be split evenly between Bryce Petty and Ryan Fitzpatrick. That wasn’t even close to being the case. Fitzpatrick barely played and only attempted three passes, while Petty attempted 18. If the same thing happens again, my recommendation here is Petty, but I have to caution that he looked terrible. The Jets even went out and signed veteran Matt Flynn this week. If you decide to look to a Jets QB, try to get some clarity closer to kickoff on what the reps will look like. I’m personally staying away from this situation though.
UPDATE: Ryan Fitzpatrick will play most of the first half tonight. This elevates him to one of the better plays at Quarterback for this slate. I would also avoid Bryce Petty based on this information.
RB: Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy – Last week, only three Jets RBs carried the football. They were Powell (8), Chris Ivory (6), and Stacy (3). Obviously, Ivory will run with the starters again, but he’s not in play unless you think he gets a first quarter TD. That leaves Stacy and Powell. Based on last week’s carries, Powell would be the play, but I also think Stacy gets a longer look this week.
WR: Jeremy Kerley – I have to be honest, I’m not high on any of the Jets WRs. I try to list some good options for every team but take this with a grain of salt. Jeremy Kerley has an uncertain role in this offense and needs a good game to play his way into some regular season reps. Chris Owusu has been great in camp, but he’s injured and may not play. Quincy Enunwa should see plenty of snaps, but I’m not sure he will do anything with them. Also consider: Chris Owusu Quincy Enunwa
TE: Kellen Davis and Wes Saxton – I would have been all in on Jace Amaro here but he’s out with a sprained shoulder. Jeff Cumberland and Kellen Davis are secure in their roles as the starting TEs. They won’t play very much, though. That leaves Davis and Saxton as our choices. The ceiling on both is about 3 catches and 35 yards, but that would be plenty from a preseason TE.
Seattle at Kansas City
Seattle
QB: R.J. Archer – Backup QB Tarvaris Jackson sprained his ankle last week and will not play on Friday. Obviously, Russell Wilson will run with the first team, but that won’t be for long. The Seahawks did sign Jake Waters on Tuesday, but he can’t possibly have a grasp on the playbook. That should open up a lot of reps for R.J. Archer who was decent against the Broncos last week. He went 11 for 20 with a TD. You could do a lot worse than R.J. Archer on a short slate.
RB: Thomas Rawls – With Marshawn Lynch unlikely to play more than a series, we should see plenty of reps for the Seahawks backup RBs. Most will assume Christine Michael is the play here. I assumed that last week and then he only played 14 snaps and saw 5 carries. The RB who saw the most volume was Thomas Rawls who played 27 snaps and saw 9 carries. You could probably play Robert Turbin, Christine Michael, or Thomas Rawls here. I’m giving the slight edge to Rawls though. Also consider: Robert Turbin, Christine Michael
WR: Kevin Norwood – Last week, Norwood played a team-high 36 snaps at WR. He saw four targets during that time but was only able to haul one in. I will take that kind of volume any day though. After Norwood, I also like Kasen Williams who is having a great camp. He played 43% of the offensive snaps last week but only saw one target. Hopefully, that changes this week. Also consider: Kasen Williams, Kevin Williams
TE: Jimmy Graham – The only Seattle TEs to record a catch last week were Jimmy Graham and Cooper Helfet. Usually, I don’t recommend starters, but this is one exception. There is no price penalty for playing a talented player in preseason. Would you rather have a backup who plays 30% of the snaps or Jimmy Graham who played 10% but actually saw a few targets? Graham is my recommendation here but if you want to go the backup route then Cooper Helfet is your guy. Also consider: Cooper Helfet
Chiefs
QB: Chase Daniel -Last week Chase Daniel went 17 of 21 for 189 yards and 3 TDs. It was easily the most impressive performance of the preseason for a QB so far. Daniel did that while playing 29 snaps to third teamer Aaron Murray 23. I haven’t heard anything yet about playing time drastically changing so I would say that Daniel is the KC QB you want again.
UPDATE: Chiefs coach Andy Reid has stated that the starters could play as much as one half tonight. This is quite a downgrade for Chase Daniel. I would look to one of the other QB options on this slate.
RB: Chandrick West -Only four Chiefs RBs carried the ball last week against Arizona. They were Kniles Davis, Darrin Reaves, Spencer Ware and Chandrick West. Be very afraid of using Knile Davis on FantasyAces as he may not play tomorrow. I’m not expecting much from Jamaal Charles. That should just leave West, Reaves, and Ware. Of the three I like West best but he was outcarried last week by Reaves 6 to 12. Also consider: Darrin Reaves
WR: Fred Williams -The Chiefs WR corps managed to score just one TD last season. They managed to triple that last week against Arizona. Frankie Hammond, Da’Ron Brown, and Fred Williams all caught TDs. I like Williams the best as he also saw a team-high six targets, but I think all three are in play. Also consider: Da’Ron Brown, Frankie Hammond
TE: James O’Shaughnessy -The only Chiefs TE to score a fantasy point last week was starter Travis Kelce. If you want to chase reps though James O’Shaughnessy is your guy. He played 30 snaps last week. I like many of the options mentioned above better on this slate though.
That’s it for this week. If you have any questions or comments feel free to chime in below or join me in the Preseason Week 2 forum thread.
Good luck!