NHL Grind Down: Saturday, March 12th - Page Two

by Joe (Joda) Last Updated 2016-03-12 16:31:25

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators – 07:00 PM EST

Toronto Maple Leafs					Ottawa Senators
			Garret Sparks					Craig Anderson
			Record					Record
			22-33-11					31-30-8
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.32	2.89	15.40%	80.20%	Team Stats	2.78	3.07	17.20%	74.30%

The Leafs put an end to a six game skid by edging an Islanders team that has been playing well for over a month. Goals came from a mix of youngsters including Zach Hyman, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly. Garrett Sparks picked up the win and is worth strong consideration here due to his atrocity of a price ($4,500) on FanDuel. While Toronto may not win this game, the volume of shots Sparks should see could pay off on saves alone, especially if you have interest in loading up the rest of your lineup. Toronto has a number of minimum salary guys who are intriguing given how porous Ottawa is defensively. Nikita Soshnikov is one who comes to mind as Mike Babcock is giving him ample opportunity in a top role. Soshnikov scored against Ottawa just a week ago and also produced the shootout winning goal in the Leafs’ win vs. the Islanders. William Nylander is one of the top prospects in the game and has found the back of the net twice already in a handful of games. Taking either of these guys seems worthwhile if you want to pay up for some of the stud skaters available on this slate. Ottawa has allowed the third most goals per game and has the second worst penalty kill in the league.

Craig Anderson returned for the Senators in their last game, but they were promptly blown out 6:2 by Florida. The loss marked Ottawa’s fifth in only six March games. The Leafs vs. Sens matchup has produced some goals over the years, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario different from that. As bad as Ottawa is defensively, they are top 10 in goals scored. Their lines are a bit of a mess at the moment though with Bobby Ryan receiving third line duties. Mika Zibanejad centers the second line with Mike Hoffman and Alex Chiasson. Normally this would be a spot to take Hoffman especially since his price has taken a nosedive, but his minutes are down and the coach doesn’t seem to have much faith in him despite Hoffman being top 20 in goals scored over the last two years. The one line which has been producing is the top line of Zack Smith, J.A. Pageau and Mark Stone. Zack Smith has goals in four straight and eight goals in his last 11 games in large part due to a ridiculous shooting percentage. After a very slow start to the new year when Mark Stone had a lone goal and assist in 12 January games along with a brutal -10, the talented winger has come on strong since then. He’s potted 10 goals and 11 assists along with a +8 rating in just 19 games. The silky smooth Swede Erik Karlsson had hit a rough spot over the last few weeks, but he found a goal and an assist in their most recent game. Karlsson has been a monster on home ice where he has 40 points (9 goals, 31 assists, +14) in 34 games. His price has come down on FanDuel, yet he likely has the most upside of anyone on this slate. Ottawa can be hard to trust, but the matchup here is excellent. Be weary of stacking lines though as the coach doesn’t seem intent on keeping guys together.

Elite Plays

TOR: Nikita Soshnikov, William Nylander
OTT: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson

Secondary plays:

TOR: Nazem Kadri, Garrett Sparks (FanDuel)
OTT: Zack Smith

Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens – 07:00 PM EST

Minnesota Wild					Montreal Canadiens
			Darcy Kuemper
			Record					Record
			31-27-10
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.60	2.49	18.60%	76.20%	Team Stats	2.66	2.75	17.30%	84.40%

The Wild have played better under their new coach, but they haven’t exactly had the most difficult schedule. They dropped a favorable matchup at home to the road weary Oilers, even after having three days rest to help Parise, who seems to be playing a bit hurt, rest up. Although Parise isn’t 100%, he still found the back of the net for Minnesota’s single goal on Thursday night. A matchup with Montreal is decent, but Mike Condon has been respectable at home. Charlie Coyle has already matched his point total from last season in 14 fewer games and continues to see big minutes on the top line. He has 23 shots on goal in his last six games and could make up for an interesting tournament option paired with Parise and Koivu as the Wild need every game they can get.

Montreal edged the Sabres the other night behind another multi-goal game from Alex Galchnyuk who is en fuego right now. It was his fifth multi-goal game in only eight games. While he won’t sustain this pace, his price has yet to adjust across the industry, making him a great mid-range option with massive upside, as we have seen. Likewise, his linemate and team captain Max Pacioretty continues to produce and his shot volume makes him one of the better options at wing every night. Outside of Galchenyuk and Pacioretty, Montreal has few threats especially with P.K. Subban picking up an injury in his last game. As of now, it seems like he will miss this game which will give Andrei Markov more incentive. Markov has 10 points in as many games and logs massive minutes even with Subban in the lineup.

Elite Plays

MIN: None
MTL: Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk

Secondary Plays

MIN: Zach Parise
MTL: P.K. Subban (doubtful), Andrei Markov

St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars – 09:00 PM EST

St. Louis Blues					Dallas Stars
								Kari Lehtonen
			Record					Record
			39-20-9					40-20-8
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.47	2.38	22.40%	86.40%	Team Stats	3.18	2.85	22.00%	79.90%

St. Louis is as hot as any team at the moment as they’ve picked up five consecutive wins, scoring 19 goals in the process. They scored five last night behind Tarasenko’s two late third period goals. The two goals marked his first multi-point game since February 22nd and he finds himself in a good spot tonight vs. Dallas. Jaden Schwartz finding his legs after a lengthy absence will certainly help Tarasenko find his groove once again. On defense, Kevin Shattenkirk finds himself an exceptional matchup given Dallas’ tendency to give up big games to defensemen. Furthermore, at least on FanDuel, his price has come down below 5,000. Shattenkirk is dynamite on the power-play and has torched Dallas in his career as he has 19 points (2 goals, 17 assists with 11 of those coming on the PP) in 21 games. With the Blues just a point behind Dallas for first in the West, expect a spirited effort from Ken Hitchcock’s team.

Despite the key injuries to John Klingberg and Patrick Sharp, Dallas blitzed past the Blackhawks last night behind a slump-breaking game from Tyler Seguin who found his first multi-point game in three weeks. The relegation to the third line seemed to energize Seguin as he peppered the Blackhawks with eight shots on goal. Seguin ended up skating with Spezza at even strength on the second line eventually, and it wouldn’t surprise me here if Ruff goes to Benn – Seguin – Spezza at times during this game. Speaking of Spezza, he scored for a fifth consecutive game last night and makes for a worthy mid-range option. Jamie Benn is also in play as he’s been simply outstanding at home. The captain has 42 points (23 goals, 19 assists, +10) in 33 home games. While all three are in consideration, be mindful as the Blues have the second best penalty kill and are top five in goals against in the league.

Elite Plays

STL: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk
DAL: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza

Secondary Plays

STL: Jaden Schwartz
DAL: None

Arizona Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers – 10:00 PM EST

Arizona Coyotes					Edmonton Oilers
			Louis Domingue					Cam Talbot
			Record					Record
			28-32-7					27-36-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.63	3.12	18.50%	77.90%	Team Stats	2.36	2.90	16.70%	81.10%

Arizona picked up a rare road (11-19-2 record) win last night against a Calgary team which has had an awful year. It marked only the second time in the Desert Dogs’ last 10 games that they scored three or more and with Oliver Ekman-Larsson expected to miss again tonight, their offense will have their work cut out for them, even vs. a leaky Edmonton defense. The one positive for Arizona is that they’ve handled the Oilers over the last two seasons as they are 7-0-1. On offense, it’s hard to recommend any specific player or line as no player on the team displays much consistency.

For a team already thinking about the lottery, Edmonton has still picked up six wins in their last 8 games, with four of those coming on the road. They draw an excellent matchup tonight vs. Arizona. Arizona has a bottom five penalty kill and playing on back-to-back nights is never easy. They’ll likely send Louis Domingue back out there, and the road hasn’t been a nice place for him as he’s 4-8-2 with a 2.92 GAA. Attention should be directed toward the Oilers’ offense here, namely Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid. Hall’s price is down across the industry, but he’s been exceptional at home where he has recorded 34 points (13 goals, 21 assists, +7) in 33 games. Hall also averages 3.57 shots per game. Paired with the speed and vision of McDavid, the Oilers’ top line should be able to find the scoresheet at least once, if not more. Furthermore, goalie Cam Talbot has been rock solid as he’s allowed three goals or less in 10 consecutive starts.

Elite Plays

ARI: None
EDM: Taylor Hall, Connor McDavid, Cam Talbot

Secondary Plays

ARI: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (doubtful)
EDM: Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl, Andrej Sekera

Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks – 10:00 PM EST

Nashville Predators					Vancouver Canucks
			Pekka Rinne					Ryan Miller
			Record					Record
			34-21-13					26-28-12
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.71	2.53	19.40%	79.50%	Team Stats	2.36	2.83	17.80%	81.00%

Nashville picked up a point for a 14th consecutive game. The last time they lost in regulation was over a month ago. A matchup with a bad Vancouver team should keep that streak going. Filip Forsberg has been as hot as anyone in the league as the young Swede has eight goals and five assists in his last eight games. Linemate Craig Smith has five goals and five assists in his last five games and is an interesting option, but he’s really struggled on the road (just 10 points in 35 games) this year, so be cautious. Ryan Johansen and James Neal are also in play as are blue line beasts Shea Weber and Roman Josi. Pekka Rinne is a great foundation for building a team tonight.

Henrik Sedin is expected to return which should help his brother, but the matchup here is poor. The Canucks are bottom five in goals scored per game and one look up and down the roster shows a team with little talent. Daniel Sedin is the only skater worth consideration as an off-the-wall type selection, but there are much better options not only at his price range but also cheaper. As was said, Nashville hasn’t lost in regulation in more than a month, and they are battling for playoff position. Vancouver is a team to avoid in all formats.

Elite plays

NSH: Filip Forsberg, Shea Weber, Pekka Rinne
VAN: None

Secondary Plays

NSH: Ryan Johansen, James Neal, Craig Smith, Roman Josi
VAN: Daniel Sedin

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