NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, February 3rd
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens – 07:00 PM EST
| Buffalo Sabres | Montreal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 20-26-4 | 24-23-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.26 | 2.66 | 20.90% | 80.60% | Team Stats | 2.66 | 2.66 | 17.40% | 84.30% |
The Sabres snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Ottawa in their last game prior to the break, but still own just a 20-26-4 record on the season and are clearly still a year or two away from being a playoff threat in the Eastern Conference. They were absolutely smoked by the Canadiens in their only other meeting this season (a 7-2 shelling), but this is simply not the same Canadiens team right now and Montreal was the only team on tonight’s slate that was in action last night. With the Canadiens having allowed the second most goals against per game during the month of January (3.27 GA/G), there’s some value here. Ryan O’Reilly leads the charge with 17 goals and 23 assists in 50 games and will center Jamie McGinn and Sam Reinhart on the top forward line while also being the focal point of the #1 power-play unit. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Jack Eichel was heating up prior to the All-Star break as he posted two goals and two assists in the last two games and now owns 7 goals and 13 assists over his last 18 games. Evander Kane offensive struggles have resulted in a demotion to the third forward line, but he still sees plenty of run with the #1 power-play unit and has plenty of GPP upside. On defense, Rasmus Ristolainen is in the midst of a breakout season. The former first round pick has tallied 8 goals and 23 assists in 50 games this season and is averaging north of 25 minutes of ice-time per game.
As if they weren’t already, it’s panic time for Montreal fans after the Canadiens once again came out flat last night to drop their third straight game. After posting a ridiculous 18-4-2 record to start the season, Montreal has completely imploded and have posted a league worst 6-19-2 record over their last 27 games. They’ll look to save their season tonight as they kick off a four game home stand against the Buffalo Sabres. In an effort to spark some kind of offense, Michel Therrien finally broke up his top line of Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher. Gallagher and Plekanec will now skate alongside Alex Galchenyuk while Pacioretty joins David Desharnais and Dale Weise on another line. P.K. Subban has been the most consistent fantasy weapon for this team lately and not only racked up three assists in the only other meeting against Buffalo this season, but also owns 3 goals and 11 assists in his last 14 games. His blue-line partner Andrei Markov snapped a 2.5 month scoring draught last night with his third goal of the season and also lit up Buffalo for a goal and three assists in that first meeting. Up-front, Max Pacioretty has been held off the scoresheet in each of his last five games but his 201 SOG trails only Alex Ovechkin and Brent Burns and he’s just too talented to be held down for long.
Buffalo Sabres
CF%: 47.6, CP60: 103, 5×5 Differential: -25
Elite Options: Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel
Secondary Options: Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, Jamie McGInn, Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Ristolainen
Montreal Canadiens
CF%: 53.5, CP60: 109.1, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban
Secondary Options: David Desharnais, Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher, Dale Weise, Andrei Markov, Jeff Petry
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning – 08:00 PM EST
| Detroit Red Wings | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Petr Mrazek |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-16-8 | 26-18-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.47 | 2.47 | 17.60% | 80.90% | Team Stats | 2.65 | 2.38 | 18.20% | 80.70% |
In what looks to be a budding new rivalry, the Detroit Red Wings will open the second half of the season against the team that sent them packing in seven games last season and who’s also controlled by their long-time Captain Steve Yzerman. Detroit has won each of the first two meetings between these teams this season and posted a rock solid 7-3-1 record during the month of January. Coach Blashill has spread out his offensive weapons across three lines, and while it appears the depth is paying dividends for the Red Wings, it’s also become a bit of a headache for daily fantasy players. WIth that said, the top line of Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg and the NHL’s new fastest skater Dylan Larkin has easily been the most consistent offensively. Zetterberg and Larkin enter tonight’s game sitting tied for the team lead with 33 points while Larkin’s +24 is tied for the NHL lead. Both Zetterberg and Larkin have also posted a goal and added an assist in the two meetings against the Lightning and look like the safest cash game plays here. Alternatively, Pavel Datsyuk looks to finally be back to full speed and, after a very slow start to the season, has posted 4 goals and 17 assists over his last 24 games. On defense, the Red Wings moved Nicklas Kronwall to LTIR over the break and will be without his services for at least two more weeks. Therefore Mike Green will continue to see a heavy workload and run the point of the #1 power-play unit. This also keeps the door open for Danny Dekeyser to see an expanded role in the offense and he answered the call with goals in each of the last two games prior to the break.
With Tampa Bay and Detroit exiting the All-Star break tied for second place in the Atlantic Division, tonight’s game at Amalie Arena could set the tone for the stretch run between these two teams. Tampa has picked up wins in nine of their last eleven games and own an impressive 15-8-2 home record this season, so they’re clearly a team the Eastern Conference better take very seriously the rest of the way. Steven Stamkos leads the team with 21 goals and usually receives the most fantasy attention. He’s posted 11 goals and 14 assists in 25 home games this season and will lead Ondrej Palat and Vladislav Namestnikov on the top forward line. While that trio has plenty of offensive upside, it’s the combination of Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson (with Alex Killorn) on the second line that likely cost Coach Blashill several hours of sleep last night. Kucherov leads the Lightning with 41 points in 49 games and has really turned things on lately; posting 14 goals and 15 assists over the last 23 games. Johnson, on the other hand, is in the midst of a rather disappointing season but this Detroit team simply had no answer for his skill/speed combination in the playoffs last season as he torched them for six goals and an assists in their seven game series. With Detroit’s best penalty killer Drew Miller lost for the season, there should also be plenty of scoring opportunites for power-play point-men Anton Stralman and Victor Hedman this evening. Hedman has racked up two goals and eight assists over the last nine games and is a mortal lock for 20+ minutes of ice-time, making him a top tier option on the blue-line tonight.
Detroit Red Wings
CF%: 50.7, CP60: 100, 5×5 Differential: 7
Elite Options: Henrik Zetterberg, Dylan Larkin, Pavel Datsyuk
Secondary Options: Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green, Danny DeKeyser
Tampa Bay Lightning
CF%: 52.2, CP60: 105.7, 5×5 Differential: 11
Elite Options: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman
Secondary Options: Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Valtteri Filppula, Anton Stralman
Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames – 09:30 PM EST
| Carolina Hurricanes | Calgary Flames | ||||||||
 | Eddie Lack |  | Karri Ramo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 23-20-8 | 21-23-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.63 | 16.70% | 82.50% | Team Stats | 2.64 | 3.02 | 13.90% | 75.70% |
Carolina is averaging just 2.41 goals per game and is not the most appetizing team to target in DFS hockey, but the combination of the short slate and solid matchup against the defensively inept Calgary Flames changes things tonight. Carolina cruised to an easy 5-1 victory against the Flames in Raliegh shortly before the break and only the Blue Jackets and Senators are allowing more than Calgary’s 3.00 goals against per game this season. With the Flames sporting an NHL worst 75.7% penalty kill and the Hurricanes owning a solid 7-2-1 record over their last ten games, overlooking Carolina could be an expensive mistake. Kris Versteeg notched a pair of goals against the Flames in last weeks meeting and joins Eric Staal (and Phil Di Giuseppe) on the top forward line. Alternatively, Eric’s brother Jordan centers the second forward line as well as the #2 power-play unit and not only had a pair of assists against Calgary but also owns four goals and eight assists in the last 11 games. On defense, it’s Justin Faulk that still leads this team with 33 points in 51 games. He’s racked up 12 power-play goals already this season, and despite a recent slump and inflated asking price, is still one of the night’s best blueline options.
The argument could easily be made that the Calgary Flames were the most disappointing team of the first half, and after dropping each of their last three games prior to the break, they’re playoff aspirations are on life support. With that said, this team has been far more threatening on home ice where they own a very solid 14-10-0 record at the Saddledome. Johnny Gaudreau is easily the top fantasy option up-front for the Calgary Flames and his dominance on home-ice this season shouldn’t go overlooked on a three game slate. “Johnny Hockey” has posted 17 goals and 17 assists (and a +17) in just 24 home games this season. Bob Hartley finally looks ready to reunite Gaudreau and Sean Monahan with Jiri Hudler on the top line, and that trio was dynamic for the bulk of the 2014-15 season. While Carolina is allowing an NHL low 26.5 SA/G this season, all three players look like fine options in all formats considering tonight’s three game slate. The Flames are stacked on the blue-line, but with Dennis Wideman being reprimanded for boarding a linesman right before the break, the trio or Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie and Dougie Hamilton should all see a small fantasy boost. Giordano has once again emerged as the top option as he’s not only posted 8 goals and 12 assists in 24 home games, but racked up 5 goals and 14 assists in his last 17 games.
Carolina Hurricanes
CF%: 53.1, CP60: 106.5, 5×5 Differential: -12
Elite Options: Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg, Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk
Secondary Options: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, John-Michael Liles
Calgary Flames
CF%: 47.5, CP60: 110.9, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler, Mark Giordano
Secondary Options: Sam Bennett, Michael Frolik, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie, Kris Russell