NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 30th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets – 07:30 PM EDT
| Ottawa Senators | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Andrew Hammond |  | Ondrej Pavelec | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 34-33-9 | 31-38-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.78 | 3.00 | 15.70% | 75.40% | Team Stats | 2.53 | 2.89 | 14.30% | 78.70% |
The month of March has been very unkind to the once promising playoff chances of the Ottawa Senators. They dropped a 4-3 overtime decision against the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday for their fourth straight loss and now own an ugly 4-6-3 record in 13 games this month. They’ll head to Winnipeg tonight to kick off a three game road trip, and while it’s easy to doubt their current motivation, it’s hard to ignore anyone on a three game slate. While the season will go down as a disappointment when all is said and done, the Ottawa offense hasn’t been the problem this season. Dave Cameron has two very dangerous scoring lines to throw over the boards at the Jets with the trio of Mark Stone, Zack Smith and Jean-Gabriel Pageau leading the charge lately. Stone has posted 12 goals, 15 assists and a plus 12 in 26 games since the All-Star break and looks like a fine option in all formats. Mike Hoffman played his way into Cameron’s doghouse at times this season, but the talented winger is looking to finish strong as he scored his 27th goals of the season against Anaheim over the weekend and has now racked up two goals and six assists in his last seven games. Hoffman is joined by Mika Zibanejad and Bobby Ryan to create a very capable secondary scoring line. With all of that said, Erik Karlsson remains the premier fantasy option on this team. He leads all NHL defensemen (fourth in the entire league) with 76 points and leads the league in average ice-time at an astounding 29:08/game. With Winnipeg being the fifth most penalized team in the league and owning an ugly 78.4% penalty kill, he should be well worth his big-ticket asking price.
The Jets will take the ice tonight sitting in the cellar of the Central Division and already mathematically eliminated from the playoff race, but a home matchup against the defensively challenged Ottawa Senators makes them a strong team to target on tonight’s short slate. Ottawa has allowed an ugly 3.00 goals against per game this season and own the 29th ranked penalty kill at just 75.4%. With that in mind, the duo of Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler shoot up my rankings tonight. Wheeler leads the club with 68 points in 76 games and scored a goal against Philadelphia on Monday to extend his point streak to five games. Scheifele was given a chance to play alongside Wheeler after the season-ending injury to Bryan Little and the former 7th overall draft pick has never looked back. He scored a goal and added an assist on Monday and has now amassed 13 goals and 12 assists over his last 20 games. If that wasn’t enough, he’s also been an absolute force at the MTS Centre where he’s posted 17 goals, 17 assists and a plus 12 in 30 home games. Dustin Byfuglien has slowed down a bit on the blue-line lately, but he did light the lamp against Ottawa in their first meeting and is a lethal weapon from the point of the Jets’ top power-play. With Toby Enstrom done for the season with a knee injury, the Jets are going to take a long, hard look at what they have in former first round pick Jacob Trouba. He’s slotted to join Byfuglien on the point of the #1 power-play and is locked into nearly a 25 minute workload each night. He’s not the most offensively gifted defenseman on the planet, but the combination of both a plus matchup and added responsibilities makes him a solid value option.
Ottawa Senators
CF%: 47.4, CP60: 111.2, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson
Secondary Options: Mike Hoffman, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Bobby Ryan
Winnipeg Jets
CF%: 51.6, CP60: 106.8, 5×5 Differential: -3
Elite Options: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien
Secondary Options: Nikolaj Ehlers, Drew Stafford, Jacob Trouba
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers – 08:00 PM EDT
| Washington Capitals | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Braden Holtby |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 54-16-5 | 37-25-13 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.09 | 2.32 | 22.70% | 84.80% | Team Stats | 2.59 | 2.55 | 18.00% | 80.80% |
With the Presidents Trophy all wrapped up, the only thing left for Washington to play for right now is Braden Holtby quest for a NHL record 49 wins. Holtby is currently sitting on 46 wins and, as a Red Wings fan, I’m really hoping Washington does their best to get him to 47 tonight in Philadelphia. While he’s been held off the scoresheet in each of the last three games, Alex Ovechkin still leads the NHL in both goals (43) and SOG (364) making him a dangerous player to fade on these short slates. Ovechkin is slated to be joined by Nicklas Backstrom and Justin Williams on the top forward line, while T.J. Oshie has dropped down to play alongside Evgeny Kuznetsov on the “second” line. Kuznetsov leads the team with 73 points in 75 games and his plus 28 is the fourth best mark in the league. He’s already dished out four assists in the first three meetings with Philadelphia this season but does happen to be stuck in a season long five game pointless drought. The Capitals were ecstatic to welcome John Carlson back to the lineup over the weekend and the stud blue-liner wasted no time getting back into the swing of things as he posted a goal and an assist in three games since returning. While his return is a bit of blow to Matt Niskanen value, Niskanen proved to still be worth a look as he dished out a pair of assists against the Blue Jackets on Monday night.
The Flyers have posted an impressive 11-3-2 record over their last 16 games to put themselves right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, and after watching both Detroit and Boston lose last night, picking up two points against the Washington Capitals tonight would suddenly put them in very good shape. While Claude Giroux leads the team with 64 points in 72 games, Brayden Schenn is starting to show why he was the 5th overall selection in the 2009 draft as he’s tallied 12 goals and 15 assists in 27 games since the All-Star break. Alternatively, Michael Raffl ,Sean Couturier and Sam Gagner have not only proved to be very solid defensively, but they’re also now starting to provide some consistent secondary scoring. Couture has quietly racked up 11 points in 13 games this month while Raffl has chipped in four goals and six assists during the same span. Jakub Voracek has not be the offensive force we’ve grown accustomed to in years past, but his talent is undeniable and he still sees some exposure to Claude Giroux on the Flyer’s top power-play unit. On defense, Shayne Gostisbehere has picked up an assist in each of the last three games and has now tallied 42 points in 57 games. He runs the show from the point of the top power-play unit and should be looking to put a bow on what could very well could (should) be a Calder Trophy winning rookie season.
Washington Capitals
CF%: 50.4, CP60: 109.5, 5×5 Differential: 34
Elite Options: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov
Secondary Options: T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, John Carlson, Matt Niskanen
Philadelphia Flyers
CF%: 50.2, CP60: 113.6, 5×5 Differential: 8
Elite Options: Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere
Secondary Options: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier, Mark Streit
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks – 10:00 PM EDT
| Calgary Flames | Anaheim Ducks | ||||||||
 | Joni Ortio |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 32-38-6 | 42-23-10 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.74 | 3.12 | 16.50% | 74.50% | Team Stats | 2.57 | 2.32 | 23.40% | 86.80% |
The Flames snapped a three-game losing streak with a win in the desert on Monday, but will be hard-pressed to keep things rolling as they head to Southern California for tonight’s clash with the Anaheim Ducks. Anaheim has not only embarrassed the Flames four times this season, but they’ve also allowed just 2.03 goals against per game this season at the Honda Center. Calgary’s road woes are not a secret, so it’s tough to trust anyone here too heavily in cash games even on a three game slate. With that said, if Johnny Gaudreau plays (he missed Monday’s game) then both he and Sean Monahan are still very intriguing GPP options. Gaudreau has posted 73 points in 74 games this season and has had some success against Anaheim; scoring a goal and adding three assists in their three meetings. Monahan scored a goal and added a pair of assists against the Coyotes in Monday’s game and has racked up 13 goals and 17 assists in 27 games since the All-Star break. On the blue-line, the Flames have two top-tier playmaking defensemen that deserve your full attention. Mark Giordano has surpassed the 50 point plateau for the first time in his impressive career and has really come on strong lately with four goals and nine assists in his last 13 games. Dougie Hamilton shares the duties with him on the point of the #1 power-play unit and the former first round pick is blossoming late in the season. Hamilton has added two goals and 11 assists in his last 13 games and has averaged nearly 22 minutes of ice-time per game this month.
With Anaheim sitting just one point behind the Los Angeles Kings for the lead in the Pacific Division, they should be very popular selections tonight against the defensively inept Calgary Flames. The Ducks have faltered just a bit down the stretch, but just wrapped up a five game road trip with back-to-back wins and should be happy to return to the Honda Center where they own a rock solid 23-9-5 record. They’ll take on a Calgary team that they’ve not only man-handled in all four previous meetings this season, but who also happen to own the league’s worst defense (3.12 goals against per game), the worst penalty kill (74.5%) and the worst road record (12-22-3). Ryan Getzlaf leads the Ducks with 59 points this season and has absolutely torched the Flames; posting a goal and six assists in their four previous meetings. He’ll lead the revitalized duo of Brandon Pirri and Jamie McGinn on the top line where all three look like terrific options this evening. Getzlaf’s former partner-in-crime Corey Perry scored his 31st goal of the season in Edmonton on Monday and is now riding a four-game point streak. He owns three goals and two assist against the Flames and is another top-tier target. Ryan Kesler has matched Perry with three goals and two assists against the Flames and has come on strong after an eerily slow start to the season with four goals and seven assists in his last 11 games. With the Flames dreadful penalty kill in mind, there are three very strong options on the Anaheim blue-line, as well. Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm all see a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage and have put up similar offensive numbers this season. Vatanen returned to the lineup after a three week absence and is arguably the most offensively talented of the three.
Calgary Flames
CF%: 48, CP60: 110.2, 5×5 Differential: -17
Elite Options: Johnny Gaudreau (if healthy), Mark Giordano
Secondary Options: Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Dougie Hamilton, T.J. Brodie
Anaheim Ducks
CF%: 53.1, CP60: 107.6, 5×5 Differential: -9
Elite Options: Ryan Getzlaf, Brandon Pirri, Corey Perry, Sami Vatanen
Secondary Options: Jamie McGinn, Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm