RotoAcademy Preview: Charging The Mound
The first thing that I do when constructing a lineup for DFS baseball is to address the pitcher(s) on roster. Whether it’s a one-pitcher setup (such as FanDuel) or two (DraftKings), the pitching staff dictates the shape of the entire roster.
Pitchers earn the most points in fantasy, so they generally require the greatest chunk of salary. They are also a limited resource, with no more than 30 starting pitchers available each day, so there is no avoiding a certain degree of overlap with the pitcher position. This is why I prefer the two-pitcher formats, which give managers a better chance to differentiate at the position that has the smallest player pool yet the greatest impact on the DFS score.
No position in DFS baseball endures greater day-to-day variation than starting pitchers, with a constantly-churning player pool that incorporates a complex wheel of opponents, ballparks, and weather patterns, with a massive range of skills between the top and bottom of each day’s pitcher pool. Pitchers can make my day or they can ruin it, as blow-up starts can take down an otherwise strong roster. In fact, now that DraftKings has erased the penalty for caught stealing, pitchers are the only players that can incur negative points in the game – and those negatives can climb into the teens, often erasing the performance of the other pitcher in the lineup.
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Negatives aside, starting pitchers can also be the most reliable source of points in DFS baseball. Think about it this way: Mike Trout going hitless is no big deal (46 times last year), but Clayton Kershaw getting lit is an extremely rare occurrence – not one of his outings last season generated a negative score on DraftKings, and he scored 17 or more points on DK in 30 of his 33 starts last season, clearing 40 points eight different times.
The pitchers available will dictate not only the shape of my roster that day, but also which games I choose to play, how much to invest, and how many roster variations I want to use. Pitchers rule the day in DFS, such that many DFS experts will advise gamers to just aim for the top and don’t look down, but there can be tremendous value beyond the top tier. It all depends on the shape of that day’s slate.
The Rule of 20k
No, I’m not talking about Kerry Wood or Roger Clemens. I’m referring to the $50,000 salary cap on DraftKings, $20k of which I reserve for pitching on a daily basis.
There are a few exceptions to the rule, and we’ll cover the specifics in a moment, but I have found that the 40-percent mark is something of a hard cap when rostering two SP’s in DFS. To devote $20k is substantial, as there are typically just a handful of pitchers who cost more than $10k on a given day, and occasionally there isn’t a pitcher that clears the bar (one of the exceptions to the rule). In general, pitchers warrant the heavy investment due to their general consistency and the vaulted ceiling of potential fantasy points that they can score, relative to position players, in addition to the devastating impact to the bottom line when a pitcher has a horrible outing.
The rule of 20k is entirely sensitive to the shape of that day’s slate of starting pitchers. Every day is unique, but there are certain types of days that are common throughout the season, based on the quality of the starting pitchers that are available that day as well as the details of their context (opponent, ballpark, etc). Let’s take a look at some real examples from last season to illustrate some of these scenarios.
Slate-Dependent Rostering of Pitchers in DFS
The Standard: July 6, 2015
Chris Sale vs. TOR
Dallas Keuchel at CLE
Carlos Carrasco vs. HOU
James Shields at PIT
Jon Lester vs. STL
A.J. Burnett vs. SD
John Lackey at CHC
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. DET
Edinson Volquez vs. TB
The above example was taken from July 6 of last year, and it roughly represents the top end of the pitcher pool on an average day. I only chose to list the top-nine pitchers for that day, based on salary at DraftKings. There’s a high-strikeout option with Sale, though he’s playing the lefty-mashing offense of the Blue Jays; there’s some stability with Keuchel, who had not yet gone on his big strikeout run of 2015 and was facing a middle-of-the-road offense; there’s also a risk/reward option with Carrasco, who had a tendency towards extreme outings last season and was facing the most strikeout-prone offense in the AL. Lester appears to be a strong value based on rankings alone, and there’s also some secondary options with various levels of stability or intrigue.
I would follow the $20k rule on a day like this, taking aim at two of the pitchers from among the top five options.
The Lone Gunman: September 22, 2015
Jake Arrieta vs. MIL
Danny Salazar at MIN
Lance McCullers vs. LAA
Tyson Ross vs. SF
John Lackey vs. CIN
Hisashi Iwakuma at KC
Gio Gonzalez vs. BAL
Jose Quintana at DET
Luis Severino at TOR
The Big Cheese stands alone in this group. Arrieta is by far the most intriguing option, and at this point in the year (nearing the end of the regular season) the right-hander was dealing. It seemed that Arrieta was owned by every gamer on this day, particularly on the two-pitcher sites such as DraftKings. There is a zig opportunity here, but when a pitcher is on that type of run it is usually best to go with the flow and look for opportunities elsewhere in the lineup.
I would have a GPP or three that were built around two of Salazar/McCullers/Ross, who each had a solid matchup on a day where the middle set of pitchers were stuck facing some of the best offenses in the AL. When there is one pitcher who stands head-and-shoulders above the rest, and that player has the upside to lap the field in terms of fantasy points, then it’s usually best to pony up the cash for his services. Incidentally, Arrieta threw a shutout that day, with 11 strikeouts and only four baserunners allowed in his nine innings of work – 47.65 points on DraftKings, 24.00 points on FanDuel.
The Loaded Slate: May 22, 2015
Max Scherzer vs. PHI
Felix Hernandez at TOR
Chris Archer vs. OAK
Gerrit Cole vs. NYM
Zack Greinke vs. SD
Noah Syndergaard at PIT
Carlos Carrasco vs. CIN
Jon Lester at ARI
Michael Pineda vs. TEX
Garrett Richards at BOS
Lance Lynn at KC
Scott Kazmir at TB
I often get caught up having a heavy investment on days like these, as there are so many enticing arms that I end up configuring multiple lineups, with a sizable investment in each. It is just too much fun to mix-and-match various combinations of pitchers on these days, and the wide spread of talent helps to keep any one pitcher from dominating the ownership rate. Scherzer is an obvious choice for the top spot, as he was arguably the best pitcher of the first half and was facing the sad lineup of the Phillies, but his price tag was understandably steep. King Felix might look odd so close to the top, especially in a game that was at Toronto, but keep in mind that Hernandez was lights out for the first two months and carried a 2.30 ERA into this game; he allowed one run over seven, with eight strikeouts and the W. I could go on, but I can see an argument for starting any one of the dozen pitchers on the above list.
Days like this are where a gamer’s gaming style really shines through. A conservative player can differentiate his/her investment while still investing heavily in pitching, configuring several lineups around the various pitching concoctions. It’s the perfect slate to flood head-to-head games, flexing the strength of the different lineups to see how different strategies play out. It also works great for GPP tournaments with massive player pools, chipping in a cheap entry for each lineup and enjoying the stretched out ownership across the board.
Thin to Win: June 5, 2015
Tyson Ross at CIN
Carlos Martinez at LAD
Jake Odorizzi at SEA
Scott Kazmir at BOS
Tsuyoshi Wada at WAS
Nate Eovaldi vs. LAA
Tim Lincecum at PHI
Brett Anderson vs. STL
Jose Quintana vs. DET
On the surface, days like June 5 of last year appear to be brutal, as every single pitcher on the slate has warts. It might be impossible to break the $20k rule because no combination of two pitchers can break that mark, and watching every matchup feels like waiting for the other shoe to drop, sinking a fantasy score, which could happen at any moment.
But you know what? These are my favorite days in DFS baseball. We are forced to go scraping the bottom of the barrel, and there is no player available who is blatantly worth sinking considerable resources. It’s the type of slate where gamers have to go with their gut and take a chance on a player. Meanwhile, the ripple effect is to have more virtual money available for hitters, allowing for greater financial flexibility when differentiating lineups. Overlap is minimized on days like this, as the lack of a clear pitching choice leads managers astray and the fatter wallet for hitters enables a more complicated puzzle when configuring that day’s lineup.
I’m an admitted pitching junkie (I write the Daily Pitcher Breakdown at RotoGrinders), and though most days push us toward the top of the player pool, the best slates are those when the population of DFS managers is forced to go dumpster diving, a scenario that magnifies any edge in the pitching department.
In How to Go Against the Grain and Earn a Profit in MLB DFS you’ll learn:
• How each slate should dictate your approach and strategy
• How to deal with pitching on each slate, whether that day includes elite or average pitchers
• How to find edges with hitters to take your GPP lineup to the top
• Why splits provide one of the biggest edges in daily fantasy baseball
• Where to find resources to make your daily fantasy baseball research an easy one every day
To read the rest of Doug Thorburn’s: How to Go Against the Grain and Earn a Profit in MLB DFS, you must purchase the course!
