The Fantasy Grout, Week 7 - Props
Now, to this week in DFS Scandal:
Ethan Haskell was exonerated by a third-party investigation, Nevada finds it kind of dark and linty but says being in the casinos’ pocket “isn’t that bad,” and Pennsylvania’s proposed legislation to address daily fantasy proves that it is that guy in your season-long league offering you Ameer Abdullah for your Devonta Freeman, with a note saying “This is a totally fair offer.”
Nah! Just kidding. I can’t do this stuff again. Plus, in contrary to some of the stuff I’ve seen in the comment sections, I have zero influence over any of this. I’m basically just venting. You know who does? Money. I’m just hoping the NFL, MLB, the NBA, ESPN, NBC, FOX, CBS, Comcast, DIRECTV, TWC, et cetera, et cetera realize that the time is now. Otherwise, they will be in a meeting, filled with suits, and someone will say “Our viewership in non-close games is down 85%. Does anyone have any ideas why that is?”
Also, just to remind everyone that us fantasy players aren’t alone, ESPN released their site traffic data from September. I’ll just hit you with a paragraph from Deadspin, analyzing it:
Look at that s**t! Seven out of the 10 most popular stories on ESPN.com last month were run-of-the-mill fantasy football takes. Seven million people were like, “I gotta find out what’s good with Dion Lewis and Matt Jones this week.” This is also a reminder that the continued explosion of the NFL’s popularity has almost everything to do with fantasy football.
LAST WEEK
A “prop comic” is generally considered hacky, Bovada’s prop bets are to thank/blame for me starting Adrian Peterson instead of Matt Forte or Arian Foster last week, and when giving props, I don’t even know what “prop” is short for, if anything. Regardless, it’s time we give some props out, so that’s what we’re going to do!
Let’s start, of course, dirty6623, who shipped $1.2 Million by scoring 263.5 in the week six Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, which was only 26.5 shy of the optimal lineup. There were four players of overlap between the best lineup and his, Matthew Stafford, Chris Ivory, DeAndre Hopkins, and Alshon Jeffery, and a fifth player of his, Calvin Johnson, only missed the optimal lineup by 0.1. Congrats to dirty6623 for winning the biggest tournament around, and for that time in Omaha Hi-Lo when he sucked out with a pair of sixes, a trey, and a deuce.
Next was DailySportsGeek, who took down $500,000 for his runner-up finish, with his 18th of 18 lineups no less. Props to him for not quitting after 17 or, frankly, for not wasting $20 on lineups 19 and beyond. They say money changes people, so with half a million in his pocket, his handle will be DailySportsStud in no time.
In third place was dinsool. Among his seven flex-eligible players, he started four position players whose names start with “A”, a fifth “DeA”, and two players with names starting with “C.” C A $250,000 strategy? I do.
In fourth, ManofMayhem clicked in a lineup which was kind of a misnomer. Sure, he played four players under 5% ownership, but to be a true “Man of Mayhem,” you can’t play DeAndre Hopkins, who was 33% owned. Enjoy your $150,000, you fake!
The fifth place finisher, NLSoldier, was the last entrant to win six-figures, but his $100,000 haul is even more hypocritical than that of ManofMayhem. No one, who considers himself a soldier for the National League, should have his highest scoring player be a guy with the initials “D.H.”
MRL18, who finished tied for sixth, had a zany lineup. He rostered two Texan players, Hopkins and Foster, and three Dolphins, Cameron, Miller and the Miami DST. Then, he rounded out his lineup with Stafford, Forte, John Brown, and Keenan Allen. The zany part, in addition to the two team stacking, is that he didn’t feel the need to insert a single Lions pass catcher, despite starting Stafford. It’s hard to doubt the man though, as he took 17th as well, swapping out only Hopkins and Cameron for Steve Smith and Antonio Gates (a second Charger). Rather than knock his unusual stacking, I’ll just give the man his props, to go with his $82,500 haul.
Tied with him for sixth was YARDSNTDS5. With an ID like that, the “5” might as well be a “?”. It baffles me. He had 12 total TDs, so that’s not it. He only entered two entries, so that’s not it either. I can’t imagine “YARDSNTDS” 1-4 were taken, especially considering the random missing “I” in the center. Is he actually version 5 of a computer program? I think the most plausible explanation is that when he registered, he got the ID and Password mixed up, and in making the “password,” he assumed it required a number.
Digression of the Week
It really makes me sad to think of it. For all of us, that spend so much time studying, playing and perpetually thinking about daily fantasy football, YARDSNTDS5 really cuts to the core of what we do. We are spending countless hours analyzing and re-analyzing, just for yards and touchdowns.
“I got an MBA in my spare time.”
“I joined the ‘Boys and Girls Club of America’.”
“I just go to church a lot.”
“What about you, Mr. of Oil?”
“Yards and Touchdowns.” (Bows head in shame.)
Finishing in eighth, an “Apex Predator” according to some, was ganondorf. He is a regular max entry guy, putting in 500 entries this week, as he does most weeks. It’s here I want to point out that to put in 500 entries costs $10,000. He took eighth place, which means 7 entries were better and 359,609 were worse. (In my best Chris Berman voice) That’s pretty good.
The reward for that exceptional accomplishment was that he won his entry for this week back, plus four more. $50,000 total. For those of you who think that if you had the bankroll to mass multi-enter, that you’d win for sure. 1) No, you wouldn’t, 2) Also, no you wouldn’t … 500) Still, you wouldn’t.
The ninth-place finisher, RobKaufman, has a plain-Jane screen name and had a run-of-the-mill, chalk lineup. The only player he rostered that wasn’t common among top finishers was Gary Barnidge, which makes me ask this question: If you had to come up with the single most perfect name for the guy that is in his mid-50s, that has a mustache, and that comes by quarterly to read your water meter, isn’t that guy’s name Gary Barnidge?
Purplesteel rostered no Ravens or Vikings, so he has no one to blame but himself for him not finishing higher than tenth. About the name though, if Derek Zoolander, when he was so angry he was seeing red, deployed his signature look, “Blue Steel,” would this guys’ ID be the result?
In 11th, was jside. Much like a “ZJ”, where if you have to ask what it is, you can’t afford it, if you don’t know how to find the “jside” of an album, you’re not ready to listen to those tracks anyway!
Finally, finishing tied for 12th is RotoGrinders.com’s own, JMtoWIN! I subbed for Adam Levitan on the Experts Roundtable on our GrindersLive channel last Friday. Along with Jeff Collins, JM is on every Friday. I proceeded to listen to JM tell me that Stafford-to-Megatron was his top stack, that Ivory was going to go off despite Washington’s stout front, that he liked Lamar Miller, but wasn’t sure if he’d have the guts to play him (He did), that Jordan Cameron was a sneaky tight end play thanks to his target totals, and that Fitzgerald and Hopkins were solid plays as well. I know he told everyone who tuned in as well, but I was literally talking to him, as he gave me the secret code for a $27,500 winner. This is all to say: Listen to him. He’s smart. Also, props!
(This Friday at 7:30 pm ET, you can catch me on The Friday Night Grind on the GrindersLive channel, where beermakersfan and dean78904 will continue the “make me look smart by proxy” process.)
QUARTERBACK
Assuming Roethlisberger sits again this week, 11 of the 28 total QB starters for the week are between $5,700 and the $5,000 salary floor. DraftKings has basically become a Pick ‘Em, at the position. Despite Gronk being an angel sent to us from the Planet Fun, it’s hard to roster him, with his price being $3,000 more than the seventh-highest priced tight end last week. Brady is starting to get to the same point. Sure he’s “safe,” as you’re very unlikely to take a whammy, but you’re getting scores from him that are available at other price points. You just have to find them. A good spot to look? The Fantasy Grout:
GANG GROUT
ANDY DALTON, $5,800 AT BYE WEEK – I learned my lesson in Week 5. If the Seahawks can’t stop him, a bye week can’t either. His 21.52 on a $5,700 salary means he went over 3.5 PT/$K, again. Ho hum. Even though he doesn’t technically have a price this week, I figured he’d still be under $6,000. What piece of evidence, over the last six weeks, makes you think it would be any different? But, if you are inclined to roster a quarterback with an actual matchup this week…
RYAN FITZPATRICK, $5,200 AT NE – As you slide your chips across the felt to the box labelled “Junk Time.”
There’s plenty of evidence that quarterback pricing is broken, and here is another example. Fitzpatrick’s price has been as high as $5,500, and is currently at $5,200. Here are his five scores for the year (oldest to newest): 14.06, 17.36, 17.62, 15.12, & 26.22. The lowest in this bunch, at his current price, would be 2.70 PT/$K. You can’t have your floor be 2.70 PT/$K, so his price should rise. It can’t rise though when Andy Dalton is still below $6K. Take advantage of it.
There’s a lot to love about Fitzpatrick. He has an excellent 1-2 punch in Marshall & Decker. Ivory, who has been incredibly effective this year, is probably opening up opportunity for Fitz as he draws attention. Plus he had 50 yards receiving last week. Then, there’s that Fitzmagic. He’ll scramble if needed. He’ll shake off a pick and keep firing (great when INTs are only -1). And, he went to Harvard. I don’t know if you know that.
Oh, did I mention junk time? No team has thrown less than 30 times on the Patriots this year, as every one of them has trailed in the fourth quarter. Nothing changes here with the Pats being nine-point favorites. In five games, opponents have tallied nine passing and one QB rushing score on them, which is exactly what Fitzpatrick has through five games! It’s almost magic. Fitzmagic!
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
LANDRY JONES, $5,100 AT KC – With those receiving weapons (Brown/Bryant/Bell/The Rest), against that secondary, it’s almost like the quarterback is just another center, unimportant to the transaction. Plus, October marks the 40-Year Anniversary of Reggie Cleveland’s only World Series start, so playing a Reggie Cleveland All-Star is karmically the right thing to do.
BLAKE BORTLES, $5,400 AGAINST BUF – Sometimes it isn’t pretty, but he just puts up numbers. Props to him for that. Fortunately, with a 9:30 ET kickoff and the game only streamed on Yahoo!, you probably won’t have to watch it.
RUNNING BACK
There are 11 running backs priced above our $5,500 Grout-line. Between Chris Ivory’s $5,800 and Todd Gurley’s $5,000, the only two players are Joseph Randle and LeSean McCoy (both $5,500). No one is playing Randle this week and McCoy isn’t in the main Sunday slate, leaving a $800 gulf dividing Grout and non-Grout players.
GANG GROUT
TODD GURLEY, $5,000 VS CLE – Just play him. Everyone you read is going to tell you to play him this week, so I’m not going to waste your time giving the same explanation why. Instead, I’m going to waste your time telling you about something that happened to me last Sunday:
I recommended Charcandrick West last week, for $4K, at Minnesota. Sorry about that. I had done a lot of research to figure out if I trusted him, and everything I found pointed to “Yes.” Then, when I recommended him, I dumped all that research, a couple paragraph’s worth, and I added an extra paragraph joking about his name.
The pick went poorly, to say the least. He got the lion’s share of the touches, but Knile Davis was more present than I thought he would be. West was ineffective running the ball, and he only got two targets, which really surprised me. He fumbled. He couldn’t convert on a few short 3rd and 4th down runs. It wasn’t great. One fourth-and-one from the seven-yard line, he was “stuffed,” though replays showed him maybe not being down, instead running for a touchdown. It was not to be, and he was a bust. Again, my apologies.
I’m mentioning this because I got trolled on Twitter about it (@GiantBallofOil). It was my first experience with someone just being a jerk, and I found my own reaction to it surprising. He has, of course, deleted the tweets since then, so I’ll paraphrase.
HIM: That Charcandrick pick was really bad.
ME: “Win some, lose some. If they were all right, you wouldn’t get ‘em for free.”
HIM: But you really recommended him. And were really wrong.
ME: “If I say I WAS WRONG in all caps, is the message clear enough?”
HIM: I can’t believe I took the time to read that pick.
ME: “I assure you, you’ll be taking no more of mine.”
Then, I blocked him. Matthew Berry is on record about how thin-skinned he is, blocking liberally. I’ve always thought that was a little, soft, I guess. It turns out, I’m the exact same way. Why have that as part of your Sunday? If you’re supposed to learn something every day, Sunday, I learned something about myself. I’m a blocker. Now, back to the picks.
CHARCANDRICK WEST, $4,200 VS PIT – Just kidding!
LAMAR MILLER, $4,600 VS HOU – What a difference a coach makes: 13 /10 / 7 / 7 / 13-IN-THE-1ST-HALF! Those are his carry totals by game. Last week, he finished with 19, as a blowout lessened his second half usage, but still! He also had three targets and two receptions in that first 30 minutes. The question with Miller has never been talent; it’s the fact that 15 carries was a pipe dream. It seems his new coach, “Man” Campbell, is just the plumber to fix the leak so Miller has a pipeline to mega-usage.
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
CHRISTINE MICHAEL, $3,000 AT NYG – It feels like Michael is Bigfoot at this point. There are reports and sightings about his role going forward and his raw tools, but outside of a grainy preseason game two years ago, no one has really seen it. I’m still kind of skeptical myself. That said, paying off $3,000 is so easy that it might behoove you this week to be a believer.
DARREN MCFADDEN, $3,100 AT NYG – “The Lance Dunbar Role”. I’m playing McFadden > Michael, as “The Role” produced 9 for 62 in the Cowboys last game before the bye.
RASHAD JENNINGS, $4,000 VS DAL – Only dipping my toe in the murky Giants running back waters because the matchup is so good. The Cowboys have allowed crazy usage through the air to backs, and Jennings has at least a couple receptions in each of the last five games, to go with double-digit carries.
WIDE RECEIVER
Lots of options this week. They are needed too, as DeAndre Hopkins isn’t getting any cheaper!
GANG GROUT
MARTAVIS BRYANT, $4,700 AT KC – I can’t tell you how much disappointment it gives me to discover Martavis Bryant is all “clear-eyed” in his profile picture. (Note for my Dad – Pops, if you hold control when you click on a link, it will pop up a new tab or window, instead of redirecting you). The reason this bums me out is that, despite all that talk about Bryant having a marijuana problem that needs help, he isn’t able to join what I’m calling The Smile High Club. Big Props go to the charter members, Le’Veon, Doug, and Jordy.
Bryant is super athletic, seems to have some chemistry with Jones that stems back to the preseason, and faces a Chiefs team clearly over-compensating for their own wide receiver touchdown inadequacies by allowing gobs of wide receiver scores to their opposition.
JAMISON CROWDER, $3,700 VS TB – With target totals of 6, 12, 8, & 9 the last four weeks, and again without DeSean Jackson, the volume is just too loud to ignore. And, that would be in a neutral matchup, let alone Tampa, who has ceded nine wide receiver scores on the year, the third worst per game rate in the league.
Also, being named after Boston’s favorite liquor and their favorite soup, it’s strange he was born in North Carolina and not New England, isn’t it?
WILLIE SNEAD, $4,300 AT IND – For the Jets and Seahawks, they have an elite corner, but also have great players around him. In Carolina, their elite corner shadows everywhere except the slot. In Denver, they have elite corners, plural. All of those situations are easy to decipher: Avoid.
In Indianapolis, where they have one shut-down corner, to go with a group of players who couldn’t cover a bald spot if they lived in a hat factory, it’s a tricky situation to decipher. It’s made harder when you consider that typically, Davis plays one side of the field, so if a team wants to avoid him, they can. Considering all of that, I am dubbing Indianapolis a plus matchup for wide receivers, even knowing of Vaunted Vontae. With Harvin, Decker, Wright, Hurns, Strong, and Amendola all having got 100 or a touchdown (or both) on mega volume against the Colts, it’s pretty hard to ignore Willie’s matchup this week. Which brings me to this week’s Things I Stole From Al Smizzle:
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
STEFON DIGGS, $4,200 AT DET – There are two things that give me pause: 1) Chuckles Johnson being back to practice and 2) Theodore Bridgewater averaging half-a-pass-touchdown per week. Still though.
DANNY AMENDOLA, $3,500 VS NYJ – If Edelman sits with a case of the “finger pointing in the wrong direction,” Amendola is the back-up Edelman. In fact, if you re-arrange the letters in “AMENDOLA” it spells “EDOLMAAN”. So, there’s that.
MICHAEL CRABTREE, $4,300 AT SD – When he’s already 15th in the NFL in targets per game and his offensive coordinator says “We want to keep building (Crabtree’s) role in the offense,” playing him is barking up the right … tree.
RISHARD MATTHEWS, $4,300 VS HOU – Another apparent beneficiary of the “Man” Campbell Era.
TIGHT END
I’m not going to lie to you, it is bleak down here in the tight end Grout space. With Julius Thomas, Chuck Clay, Jordan Reed, and Delanie Walker all just missing the price cut, serious props are in order for someone who can play and win with the tight end Fantasy Grout.
GANG GROUT
TIM WRIGHT, $2,500 VS MIN – Last week, he was the only tight end active for Detroit. This week, with Eric Ebron likely to miss again, you’re looking at min price for the only show in town. Ebron had ten targets and 5 for 43, plus a TD in their first matchup. If expecting the same for Wright this week is wrong, I don’t want to be Wright.
LEFT IN THE BUCKET
JORDAN CAMERON, $3,300 VS MIA – With the tight end coach running the team last week, Cameron was the target leader with eight last week. The tight end coach is running the team this week.