Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, August 25th
MLB is coming at you with the full Monty today. That means a 15-game night slate. All the games. That means we’re bound to find a few useful arms, but be forewarned that this likely one of the weaker full boards you’re going to see.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 2 | 4.64 | 5.01 | 37.1% | 1.01 | 4.5 | 4.53 | NYM | 107 | 100 | 86 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 1.8 | 4.62 | 5.43 | 39.7% | 0.94 | 5.13 | 4.66 | SDG | 81 | 74 | 64 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 7 | 4.81 | 5.6 | 31.7% | 1.01 | 5.95 | 5.34 | NYY | 114 | 91 | 127 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | -0.3 | 4.56 | 5.72 | 43.5% | 1.03 | 4.97 | 5.86 | TOR | 91 | 90 | 77 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.9 | 4.45 | 5.76 | 49.8% | 1.01 | 4.09 | 4.29 | SEA | 94 | 96 | 107 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -3 | 4.3 | 5.83 | 50.9% | 1 | 4.45 | 4.43 | ATL | 90 | 88 | 125 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -2 | 4.43 | 5.18 | 36.8% | 0.89 | 4.67 | 6.01 | LOS | 119 | 108 | 101 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -4.6 | 3.99 | 5.72 | 40.7% | 0.91 | 4.29 | 4.13 | ANA | 99 | 98 | 121 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -1.6 | 4.15 | 5.93 | 49.8% | 1.02 | 3.93 | 4.31 | CIN | 101 | 100 | 121 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | -0.7 | 4.03 | 5.93 | 43.1% | 1.03 | 3.84 | 3.51 | MIN | 91 | 91 | 132 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.7 | 3.48 | 6.24 | 45.3% | 1.01 | 3.42 | 3.32 | WAS | 112 | 102 | 33 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.52 | 33.2% | 0.98 | 4.93 | 7.35 | STL | 105 | 100 | 127 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3 | 4.64 | 5.63 | 39.0% | 1.09 | 4.74 | 3.78 | CLE | 104 | 101 | 99 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.8 | 4.22 | 5.86 | 40.0% | 0.96 | 4.38 | 5.28 | CHC | 95 | 96 | 111 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | -6 | 4.55 | 5.68 | 37.9% | 1.13 | 4.7 | 5.79 | BOS | 94 | 93 | 106 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4 | 3.94 | 6.24 | 42.8% | 0.96 | 4.18 | 4.27 | PHI | 98 | 83 | 120 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -1 | 4.38 | 6.06 | 39.1% | 1 | 4.39 | 4.13 | COL | 79 | 81 | 92 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1 | 3.83 | 6.51 | 33.8% | 0.98 | 4.07 | 2.85 | CHW | 90 | 87 | 85 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -9.8 | 4.63 | 5.89 | 50.9% | 0.93 | 4.09 | 4.47 | TEX | 82 | 100 | 114 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.4 | 3.76 | 5.42 | 41.8% | 0.89 | 3.78 | 2.69 | MIL | 94 | 93 | 94 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -0.3 | 4.32 | 5.43 | 47.1% | 0.98 | 3.75 | 5.03 | TAM | 96 | 103 | 107 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | -0.1 | 5.1 | 5.79 | 39.5% | 0.98 | 4.92 | 5.61 | DET | 89 | 94 | 114 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.8 | 5.46 | 5.28 | 44.3% | 0.93 | 5.75 | OAK | 110 | 104 | 104 | |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 4.1 | 4.91 | 6.09 | 38.0% | 0.91 | 4.27 | 5.21 | HOU | 127 | 126 | 95 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.3 | 3.84 | 6.64 | 0.427 | 1.13 | 4.02 | 4.58 | BAL | 95 | 99 | 112 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 6.2 | 5.18 | 4.76 | 0.374 | 1.02 | 4.89 | 5.29 | PIT | 85 | 88 | 89 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 1.1 | 3.96 | 4.07 | 0.53 | 1.09 | 3.59 | 5.64 | KAN | 91 | 85 | 97 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | -3.9 | 4.55 | 4.62 | 0.369 | 0.94 | 5.35 | 6.21 | MIA | 93 | 96 | 114 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -4.1 | 5.11 | 6.27 | 0.47 | 1.13 | 4.98 | 6.07 | ARI | 104 | 76 | 58 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.2 | 3.69 | 6.35 | 0.472 | 1.13 | 3.7 | 4 | SFO | 83 | 84 | 119 |
J.A. Happ has struck out at least eight in three of his last four starts and has an 11.5 SwStr% over the last month, pushing his season rate up to a career high 9.8% again. Since the All-Star break, seven starts, he has a -2.5 Hard-Soft%. He’s muted both left and right-handed contact over this span. He’s facing the lineup with top wRC+ over the last week, though they were just shut down by Derek Holland last night. They have a 10.0 HR/FB against LHP this year, but a 25.3 HR/FB over the last week without Sano…go figure.
Jacob deGrom has allowed exactly five runs in each of his last two starts, although it took a three-run HR in the seventh inning by Stanton for him to get there last time out, while he also came away with eight strikeouts. He’s gotten eight or more in five of his last six starts and seven of his last 10. His 21.2 K-BB% is second on the board and ninth among qualified pitchers. He has the top strikeout and swinging strike rate on the board. The Nationals entire offense has tanked without Harper. They have a 24.8 K% and 4.1 HR/FB (25.5 Hard%) over the last week.
Jose Quintana threw seven innings with 12 strikeouts in his first start for the Cubs, but hasn’t exceeded six innings in six starts since with an ERA, FIP and xFIP all a bit above four or even higher. While he has a double digit SwStr% in two of those starts, it’s been 5.1% or less in the other four. However, he’s exceeded a 55% ground ball rate with a hard hit rate below 10% in each of his last two starts, including one of the two with a double digit SwStr%. He’s in a nice spot in Philadelphia, against an offense that has struggled against LHP, though the park has turned a 29.2 Hard% at home into a 15.6 HR/FB.
Julio Teheran has allowed 28 HRs this season, but none over this last two starts, one of them in Colorado, while he’s striking out nearly a quarter of batters faced over the last month. Though the gap in his wOBA has closed this year, it’s through some BABIP magic and LHBs are still hitting him much harder. This is great news for Blackmon, but bad news for the rest of a Colorado lineup that has a 16.8 K-BB% and 8.1 Hard-Soft% on the road. Their numbers against RHP are below average too, despite playing half their games at Coors. RHBs have a -2.1 Hard-Soft% and 16.7 K-BB% against him this year.
Justin Verlander has a 24.3 K-BB% and 12.4 SwStr% over his last seven starts with just a 27.3 GB%, but a hard hit rate below 30%. The White Sox have a 16.0 K-BB% against RHP, but this is one of a few spots where I’d rather look at PlateIQ after tonight’s lineup has been confirmed. This is a different, better offense since trading off most of their vets, though one of their big rookie bats (Moncada) went down last night.
Kenta Maeda has struck out 27 of 89 batters in August. His 84.7 mph aEV and 28.3% 95+ mph EV are exceeded by just one other pitcher with more than two starts today. The problem is as it has always been and that’s his workload. He’s thrown exactly 85 pitches in each of his last two starts and has not reached 95 pitches since early May. That said, he’s in a tremendous strikeout spot and one of the best overall hosting the Brewers, who have a 25 K% on the road and vs RHP. Their 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP is a concern, but they have just a 5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week and transition to a severely negative run environment.
Zack Greinke struck out just four in his last start, while walking as many in Minnesota. He’d been coming off four straight with at least eight though, so the concern isn’t immediate, especially with a 9.4 SwStr%. He hasn’t dropped below that mark since June. His 22.2 K-BB% is best on the board and six best among qualified pitchers, while his 28.4% 95+ mph EV is one of the lowest marks on the board. The Giants have just a 10.7 HR/FB on the road, so the lack of power travels with them, along with a 23.4 Hard% over the last week, despite a 119 team wRC+. Still, the park is a difficult one to pitch in and they do strike out less than the average team.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jason Vargas (.294 – 80.2% – 10.4) has struck out at least six in three of four starts, but has a 44.5 Hard% since the start of July (eight starts), in which he’s gone more than five innings just twice. He’s also in one of the worst spots on the board in Cleveland. They have a 113 sOPS+ (third) against fly ball pitchers.
Chase Anderson (.267 – 79.2% – 7.2) threw five innings of one run ball in Colorado with three walks in his return from the DL. We might be able to take umbrage with his BABIP and LOB% along with the HR rate, but I’m feeling generous and his 25.5% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board. The Dodgers are a difficult opponent, somewhat neutralized by an extremely negative run environment and the loss of Cody Bellinger, but this is still a deep lineup.
Jake Odorizzi (.242 – 73.2% – 16.8) is facing an offense with a 23.8 HR/FB and 26.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week. His reverse split tendencies are likely to hurt him tonight with 17 of his 26 HRs allowed to RHBs (44.6 Hard%). The Cardinals have a 108 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers too.
Parker Bridwell (.267 – 83.8% – 12.1) has decreased his SwStr% over the last month rather than improving his K%. His 88.4 mph aEV and 39.7% 95+ mph EV are both among the worst rates on the board with a 23.3 LD% to match.
Miguel Gonzalez (.291 – 71.7 – 9.5) has a 13.6% unearned run rate. He’s allowed one run or less (earned or not) in five of his last seven starts, but with an 81% strand rate and 5.3 HR/FB despite a hard hit rate at least average (above 30%) in six of the seven. His strikeout rate barely exists.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Michael Wacha is in a high strikeout against the Rays (25% on the road and vs RHP), who lose either Duda or Morrison in an NL park. His 85.9 mph aEV, 29.3% 95+ mph EV and 27.7 Hard% tell an encouraging tale as well, which is why he nearly makes today’s list, but he hasn’t exceeded five strikeouts in a start in over a month and has failed to surpass five innings in three of his last four.
Rick Porcello generates enough strikeouts, but has allowed 29 HRs and too much hard contact. He might be in the worst spot on the board at home against a Baltimore offense with a 26.8 HR/FB over the last week.
C.C. Sabathia hasn’t had a terrible season, but hasn’t struck out more than five in nine starts and only that many twice.
Chad Bettis has thrown seven innings in each of his starts upon his return. He’s a guy you root for and his career 49.5 GB% can help him keep his team in some games, but a 16.8 K% means he needs perfect situations to be useful in a daily fantasy setting. Atlanta isn’t a bad spot and they don’t have much power (11.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but they’re unlikely to help his strikeout rate much.
Ivan Nova is missing bats at a sufficient rate, although he has not struck out more than six in a game since April and has allowed 18 HRs over his last 14 starts. LHBs have a .398 wOBA and 10 HRs over that span, though batters from either side have a hard hit rate above 35%. The Reds aren’t a bad offense and the park is not going to help him with the HR issues. Case in point, they’ve turned a 28.7 Hard% into a 16.2 HR/FB at home.
Collin McHugh is one of just four pitchers with a 12+ SwStr% today, but has been below 9% in each of his last two starts with his 22 K% pretty much at his career average. He’s only generating 32.6% ground balls, which could be a problem if his 9.3 HR/FB hits double digits. His 2.1% Barrels/BBE is best on the board among those with more than 10 innings though. The Angels don’t have a ton of power and it’s a park upgrade, but they’re about an average offense that doesn’t strike out a lot (17.9% at home). They have a magnificent team 1.5 K-BB% over the last week.
Kendall Graveman is in a nice spot, facing a Texas offense with a 26.3 K% on the road, but eight of his 13 strikeouts in four starts this month came in just one of those. His 89 mph aEV and 41.6 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board.
Jerad Eickhoff has a double digit walk rate since the break, exceeding six innings just once. Over that span, he has just a 35.3 GB% and a hard hit rate of at least 33.3% in six of seven starts.
Adam Conley struck out a season high 11 Mets in his last start, still has just a 17.8 SwStr% over the last month. It was only the second time since his first start that he struck out more than five. He has the best matchup on the board. The Padres have a 25.8 K% on the road and vs LHP.
A.J. Cole has a 6.1 K-BB% through 22.1 innings this year, but we should consider the state of a Mets offense that just lost Conforto yesterday too. PlateIQ will give us a more accurate assessment when the lineup is confirmed, though I still imagine it wouldn’t be enough to roster him.
Ryan Merritt has not allowed a barrel on the season yet, but has struck out just three of the 40 batters he has faced.
Ariel Miranda has 27.6 K% over the last month and the Yankees have a 23.6 K% vs LHP. He also leads the majors with 31 HRs allowed and his 9.0% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board. The Yankees have a second best 114 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers this year.
Jeremy Hellickson allowed five HRs in his last start and has a hard hit rate above 40% in five of his last seven starts without a ground ball rate exceeding 40% in any of those starts. LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% over that span.
Robert Stephenson has the only double digit barrel rate on the board.
Ty Blach is a decent contact manager (85.6 mph aEV), but will really put that to the test in Arizona. He strikes out nobody. The Diamondbacks have a 25.5 K% vs LHP, but check PlateIQ here too for the numbers against LHP from the confirmed lineup later. I’d expect them to be better than their 76 wRC+.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.8% | Home | 22.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.3% | 9.6% | Home | 17.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 9.4% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.2% | Road | 17.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 15.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 15.4% | 4.6% | Road | 11.9% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 11.8% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.7% | Home | 20.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.2% | 6.9% | Road | 17.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 1.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.6% | 7.9% | Road | 19.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 22.4% | 6.8% | Road | 21.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 4.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.8% | 4.4% | Road | 17.0% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.3% | 7.1% | Home | 22.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 10.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 6.5% | Road | 22.8% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 2.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.0% | Road | 19.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.1% | Road | 19.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 10.2% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.9% | 6.7% | Home | 21.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.7% | 6.0% | Road | 16.5% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 4.4% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.1% | 6.9% | Road | 22.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 12.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.3% | 7.3% | Home | 20.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 10.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.8% | 7.5% | Road | 25.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 1.9% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.3% | 6.3% | Home | 15.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 7.6% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.7% | 6.6% | Home | 25.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 2.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.3% | Home | 21.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 6.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 14.9% | 7.6% | Home | 16.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 13.7% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 11.6% | 8.1% | Road | 11.6% | 8.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 15.4% | 5.9% | Home | 16.1% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.3% | Home | 21.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 19.1% | 12.7% | Home | 21.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 12.1% |
| Ryan Merritt | Indians | L2 Years | 11.7% | 1.3% | Home | 10.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 19.7% | 9.9% | Road | 19.9% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 8.2% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.9% | 5.7% | Road | 9.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 8.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 24.0% | 6.0% | Home | 24.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 12.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 21.5% | 8.3% | RH | 19.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Padres | Road | 25.8% | 7.3% | LH | 25.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 26.9% | 7.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.3% | 10.2% | LH | 23.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.5% | 8.8% | RH | 20.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | LH | 19.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Home | 19.4% | 7.2% | RH | 19.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.1% | 10.5% | RH | 22.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 17.7% | 11.9% |
| Angels | Home | 17.9% | 8.0% | RH | 19.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 13.3% | 11.8% |
| Reds | Home | 21.5% | 9.5% | RH | 20.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.8% |
| Twins | Road | 21.7% | 9.3% | LH | 20.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.2% | 8.9% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 9.8% | RH | 21.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.1% |
| Indians | Home | 19.5% | 10.1% | LH | 17.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 9.7% | RH | 22.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | RH | 19.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.7% | 8.5% | LH | 20.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.4% | 7.6% | RH | 22.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 12.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.5% | 7.4% | RH | 22.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.3% | 8.0% | RH | 23.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 10.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.9% | 8.6% | RH | 25.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.7% |
| Rays | Road | 24.7% | 8.9% | RH | 24.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.7% | 8.9% | RH | 22.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.6% | 9.2% | RH | 24.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.9% |
| Astros | Road | 17.9% | 8.5% | RH | 17.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 15.5% | 8.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.6% | 6.0% | RH | 21.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.6% | 8.5% | RH | 18.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.5% |
| Royals | Road | 20.8% | 6.5% | LH | 19.0% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.5% | 5.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.9% | 8.6% | LH | 19.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.7% | 9.6% | LH | 25.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.4% |
| Giants | Road | 19.1% | 8.0% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.2% | 12.8% | 7.8% | 2017 | 29.9% | 16.7% | 9.0% | Home | 28.0% | 12.8% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 2017 | 35.1% | 10.2% | 16.0% | Home | 34.3% | 7.2% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.1% | -2.8% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.4% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 2017 | 30.5% | 14.6% | 8.7% | Road | 32.0% | 15.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 13.3% | 7.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | Twins | L2 Years | 34.6% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 2017 | 36.6% | 14.6% | 18.2% | Road | 36.9% | 11.9% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.8% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 2017 | 29.6% | 14.9% | 6.0% | Home | 27.7% | 16.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% | -38.9% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 2017 | 28.3% | 7.1% | 4.4% | Road | 31.1% | 15.3% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 7.1% | 4.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.9% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 2017 | 33.2% | 7.2% | 14.3% | Road | 34.7% | 13.3% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 2017 | 27.1% | 9.3% | 18.8% | Road | 33.9% | 12.0% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 0.0% | 20.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 35.0% | 16.4% | 17.1% | 2017 | 34.6% | 15.6% | 17.0% | Road | 36.6% | 18.2% | 22.7% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 11.1% | 23.6% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.0% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 2017 | 28.1% | 14.4% | 7.8% | Home | 32.8% | 12.0% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.8% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 2017 | 33.7% | 16.3% | 13.1% | Road | 34.6% | 16.7% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 29.5% | 16.7% | 3.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 34.3% | 13.9% | 17.5% | 2017 | 38.0% | 16.8% | 22.6% | Road | 32.9% | 13.4% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 14.3% | 23.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 32.6% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 2017 | 32.6% | 10.4% | 14.6% | Road | 32.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 58.6% | 12.5% | 44.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.1% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 2017 | 32.9% | 9.6% | 18.6% | Home | 29.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 8.3% | 18.8% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.9% | 9.2% | 2017 | 31.5% | 14.8% | 12.4% | Road | 31.3% | 12.6% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 28.6% | 16.2% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 2017 | 31.3% | 13.9% | 13.3% | Road | 31.5% | 6.6% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 6.9% | 0.0% | -20.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.8% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 2017 | 32.1% | 16.2% | 11.8% | Home | 32.7% | 13.6% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 26.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.4% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 2017 | 35.8% | 10.8% | 18.8% | Road | 31.2% | 11.9% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 23.5% | 29.4% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 2017 | 32.4% | 10.6% | 15.5% | Home | 28.3% | 10.4% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 21.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2017 | 27.4% | 13.2% | 7.6% | Home | 26.4% | 10.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 20.0% | 10.3% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 2017 | 27.7% | 12.7% | 6.8% | Home | 29.6% | 10.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 37.5% | -2.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 2017 | 32.9% | 9.5% | 17.3% | Home | 28.8% | 6.7% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 8.9% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.9% | 17.9% | 12.3% | 2017 | 30.4% | 19.0% | 10.0% | Road | 30.2% | 17.5% | 13.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Years | 35.0% | 13.4% | 19.6% | 2017 | 34.2% | 12.1% | 18.6% | Home | 34.1% | 17.8% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.4% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 2017 | 40.1% | 14.0% | 23.2% | Home | 34.3% | 9.1% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 9.1% | 11.2% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 38.9% | 18.9% | 23.6% | 2017 | 39.7% | 19.0% | 26.0% | Home | 39.5% | 15.4% | 20.9% | L14 Days | 47.6% | 11.1% | 33.3% |
| Ryan Merritt | Indians | L2 Years | 23.9% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% | Home | 11.1% | 0.0% | -5.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| Travis Wood | Padres | L2 Years | 31.5% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 2017 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | Road | 34.4% | 9.7% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 5.6% | 12.5% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 32.0% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 2017 | 32.2% | 8.6% | 13.5% | Road | 32.7% | 13.6% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 21.4% | 25.6% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 32.2% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2017 | 34.4% | 13.8% | 13.2% | Home | 36.8% | 12.8% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 0.0% | -7.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 36.2% | 16.1% | 18.9% | RH | 34.7% | 13.7% | 17.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 15.4% | 10.9% |
| Padres | Road | 30.6% | 14.8% | 8.3% | LH | 30.3% | 12.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.4% | 10.0% | 0.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.1% | 19.3% | 9.5% | LH | 29.4% | 12.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 36.6% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.7% | 14.6% | 10.1% | RH | 31.2% | 14.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 40.7% | 15.5% | 23.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.6% | 11.0% | 13.3% | LH | 30.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | L7Days | 32.1% | 6.2% | 10.7% |
| Braves | Home | 29.1% | 12.0% | 9.4% | RH | 30.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 27.2% | 13.7% | 6.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.7% | 16.5% | 21.0% | RH | 36.0% | 14.9% | 20.3% | L7Days | 35.8% | 10.0% | 17.2% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 12.5% | 9.9% | RH | 31.3% | 13.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 32.5% | 19.4% | 11.6% |
| Reds | Home | 28.7% | 16.2% | 7.8% | RH | 29.8% | 15.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 28.2% | 19.3% | 9.2% |
| Twins | Road | 30.5% | 12.6% | 13.0% | LH | 29.9% | 10.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 29.7% | 25.3% | 14.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.5% | 15.0% | 16.2% | RH | 31.6% | 14.8% | 14.7% | L7Days | 25.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 31.9% | 12.9% | 12.7% | RH | 31.7% | 13.0% | 13.2% | L7Days | 39.4% | 23.8% | 26.3% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.7% | 12.5% | LH | 31.3% | 12.3% | 12.9% | L7Days | 34.6% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.9% | 14.8% | 10.9% | RH | 31.4% | 15.4% | 13.7% | L7Days | 29.6% | 10.2% | 14.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.1% | 10.4% | 16.1% | RH | 33.8% | 11.4% | 16.0% | L7Days | 27.2% | 17.7% | 3.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.2% | 15.6% | 8.3% | LH | 29.5% | 13.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 32.6% | 22.4% | 11.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.2% | 11.7% | 8.1% | RH | 30.8% | 13.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 36.0% | 15.1% | 19.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.5% | 13.2% | 7.6% | RH | 30.1% | 13.5% | 10.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 11.8% | 9.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.2% | 16.4% | 10.9% | RH | 35.2% | 17.9% | 16.8% | L7Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 21.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.7% | 17.0% | 11.9% | RH | 33.7% | 18.9% | 14.8% | L7Days | 29.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% |
| Rays | Road | 32.1% | 16.0% | 12.0% | RH | 35.0% | 16.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 38.0% | 17.5% | 24.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.5% | 12.3% | 17.1% | RH | 39.8% | 11.7% | 24.3% | L7Days | 38.1% | 17.2% | 23.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.9% | 15.1% | 16.9% | RH | 33.6% | 14.8% | 17.6% | L7Days | 30.0% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| Astros | Road | 33.7% | 15.0% | 15.8% | RH | 33.1% | 15.3% | 15.9% | L7Days | 29.9% | 12.9% | 12.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.5% | 13.7% | 15.1% | RH | 32.4% | 16.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 36.6% | 26.8% | 20.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.7% | 11.8% | 10.5% | RH | 30.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 36.7% | 21.8% | 17.0% |
| Royals | Road | 32.4% | 14.0% | 13.6% | LH | 31.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.5% | 15.1% | 10.1% | LH | 27.1% | 13.9% | 3.5% | L7Days | 25.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.0% | 16.1% | 23.5% | LH | 33.1% | 15.4% | 15.9% | L7Days | 31.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Road | 30.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | RH | 28.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 18.4% | 9.5% | 1.94 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 1.98 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 17.1% | 9.8% | 1.74 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.84 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 20.5% | 10.7% | 1.92 | 27.6% | 13.5% | 2.04 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 13.9% | 5.5% | 2.53 | 14.1% | 6.8% | 2.07 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.3% | 8.7% | 2.10 | 15.9% | 8.8% | 1.81 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 14.6% | 9.9% | 1.47 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 1.47 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 23.2% | 10.8% | 2.15 | 19.1% | 13.7% | 1.39 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 22.0% | 12.1% | 1.82 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 1.81 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 15.5% | 8.3% | 1.87 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 1.81 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 22.8% | 9.8% | 2.33 | 27.9% | 11.5% | 2.43 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.3% | 13.4% | 2.11 | 30.0% | 13.5% | 2.22 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 19.2% | 10.8% | 1.78 | 11.9% | 7.1% | 1.68 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 18.5% | 10.3% | 1.80 | 21.2% | 12.1% | 1.75 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.2% | 8.5% | 2.38 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 2.39 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 14.6% | 8.4% | 1.74 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 2.51 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 25.3% | 8.4% | 3.01 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.24 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.5% | 9.4% | 1.97 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 2.26 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.34 | 29.1% | 11.5% | 2.53 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 15.7% | 6.8% | 2.31 | 14.1% | 5.3% | 2.66 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 24.3% | 12.8% | 1.90 | 27.7% | 11.4% | 2.43 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 22.5% | 9.8% | 2.30 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.02 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.06 | 14.6% | 5.5% | 2.65 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.03 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 2.32 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 15.2% | 9.1% | 1.67 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 1.97 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.0% | 9.1% | 2.31 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 2.61 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 19.7% | 10.7% | 1.84 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 2.00 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 7.5% | 4.8% | 1.56 | 5.6% | 6.6% | 0.85 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 16.8% | 6.4% | 2.63 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 3.00 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 11.4% | 6.5% | 1.75 | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.96 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 28.1% | 12.9% | 2.18 | 30.4% | 10.9% | 2.79 |
Jose Quintana has some bulls**t in his strikeout rate. Can’t put it any other way.
Zack Greinke has exceeded his SwStr% slightly over the last month, but he’s been consistently above 9% in every start. This is not too bad.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 5.32 | 5.3 | -0.02 | 5.23 | -0.09 | 5.63 | 0.31 | 5.42 | 0.10 | 6.75 | 4.74 | -2.01 | 4.96 | -1.79 | 6.07 | -0.68 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 4.93 | 5.07 | 0.14 | 5.24 | 0.31 | 4.67 | -0.26 | 5.65 | 0.72 | 4.02 | 4.87 | 0.85 | 5.05 | 1.03 | 5.11 | 1.09 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.78 | 4.82 | 0.04 | 5.27 | 0.49 | 5.41 | 0.63 | 4.99 | 0.21 | 6.84 | 4.14 | -2.7 | 5.01 | -1.83 | 6.51 | -0.33 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 6.66 | 5.12 | -1.54 | 5.18 | -1.48 | 5.31 | -1.35 | 7.43 | 0.77 | 3.78 | 5.34 | 1.56 | 5.61 | 1.83 | 5.86 | 2.08 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.99 | 4.62 | 0.63 | 4.34 | 0.35 | 4.45 | 0.46 | 4.54 | 0.55 | 6.52 | 4.27 | -2.25 | 3.62 | -2.9 | 5.77 | -0.75 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.93 | 4.43 | 2.5 | 4.01 | 2.08 | 3.13 | 1.2 | 3.67 | 1.74 | 1.93 | 4.43 | 2.5 | 4.01 | 2.08 | 3.13 | 1.2 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.83 | 4.25 | 1.42 | 4.5 | 1.67 | 3.49 | 0.66 | 4.25 | 1.42 | 1.8 | 6.01 | 4.21 | 7.41 | 5.61 | 4.53 | 2.73 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.01 | 4.37 | 0.36 | 4.75 | 0.74 | 3.99 | -0.02 | 5.53 | 1.52 | 3.41 | 4.19 | 0.78 | 4.35 | 0.94 | 3.2 | -0.21 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.81 | 4.39 | 0.58 | 4.08 | 0.27 | 4.29 | 0.48 | 4.68 | 0.87 | 4.66 | 4.25 | -0.41 | 4.08 | -0.58 | 4.58 | -0.08 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.9 | 4.11 | 0.21 | 3.96 | 0.06 | 4.04 | 0.14 | 4.22 | 0.32 | 3.34 | 3.95 | 0.61 | 3.52 | 0.18 | 2.12 | -1.22 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.49 | 3.5 | 0.01 | 3.33 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 0.13 | 3.06 | -0.43 | 4.31 | 3.06 | -1.25 | 2.87 | -1.44 | 3.39 | -0.92 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.74 | 5.08 | 0.34 | 5.35 | 0.61 | 5.89 | 1.15 | 5.42 | 0.68 | 6.59 | 7.24 | 0.65 | 7.98 | 1.39 | 7.01 | 0.42 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 3.59 | 4.7 | 1.11 | 4.78 | 1.19 | 4.23 | 0.64 | 4.11 | 0.52 | 5.81 | 4.53 | -1.28 | 4.27 | -1.54 | 4.8 | -1.01 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.46 | 4.72 | 0.26 | 4.84 | 0.38 | 4.17 | -0.29 | 5.96 | 1.50 | 3.62 | 5.16 | 1.54 | 5.43 | 1.81 | 4.01 | 0.39 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 5 | 5.18 | 0.18 | 5.34 | 0.34 | 5.51 | 0.51 | 5.21 | 0.21 | 6.35 | 4.66 | -1.69 | 5.07 | -1.28 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.27 | 4.03 | -0.24 | 3.98 | -0.29 | 3.99 | -0.28 | 3.99 | -0.28 | 4.5 | 4.29 | -0.21 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 4.56 | 0.06 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.02 | 4.91 | -0.11 | 4.99 | -0.03 | 5.35 | 0.33 | 4.53 | -0.49 | 6.51 | 4.22 | -2.29 | 4.26 | -2.25 | 4.72 | -1.79 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.96 | 4.45 | 0.49 | 4.59 | 0.63 | 4.11 | 0.15 | 3.58 | -0.38 | 2.06 | 3.49 | 1.43 | 3.91 | 1.85 | 3.82 | 1.76 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.54 | 4.79 | 0.25 | 4.54 | 0 | 4.13 | -0.41 | 4.21 | -0.33 | 6.2 | 5.04 | -1.16 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 3.38 | -2.82 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.88 | 3.86 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 0.05 | 3.84 | -0.04 | 3.99 | 0.11 | 2.86 | 3.35 | 0.49 | 3.44 | 0.58 | 3.31 | 0.45 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.08 | 4.12 | 0.04 | 3.84 | -0.24 | 3.71 | -0.37 | 4.43 | 0.35 | 4.68 | 4.55 | -0.13 | 4.21 | -0.47 | 4.77 | 0.09 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.44 | 5.55 | 1.11 | 5.72 | 1.28 | 4.91 | 0.47 | 5.76 | 1.32 | 3.9 | 5.64 | 1.74 | 6.19 | 2.29 | 4.54 | 0.64 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 5.38 | 5.35 | -0.03 | 5.35 | -0.03 | 6.23 | 0.85 | 6.41 | 1.03 | 11.57 | 6.09 | -5.48 | 6.56 | -5.01 | 9.24 | -2.33 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 2.92 | 4.94 | 2.02 | 4.82 | 1.9 | 4.55 | 1.63 | 5.48 | 2.56 | 2.67 | 5.06 | 2.39 | 4.8 | 2.13 | 3.46 | 0.79 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.48 | 4.15 | -0.33 | 4.32 | -0.16 | 4.34 | -0.14 | 4.82 | 0.34 | 4.31 | 4.29 | -0.02 | 4.2 | -0.11 | 4.79 | 0.48 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 6.13 | 5.23 | -0.9 | 5.59 | -0.54 | 6.41 | 0.28 | 6.53 | 0.40 | 2.65 | 6.44 | 3.79 | 6.59 | 3.94 | 5.9 | 3.25 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 3.12 | 4.5 | 1.38 | 4.03 | 0.91 | 2.79 | -0.33 | 9.13 | 6.01 | 2.45 | 5.64 | 3.19 | 5.37 | 2.92 | 3.41 | 0.96 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 5.81 | 5.14 | -0.67 | 5.49 | -0.32 | 4.71 | -1.1 | 7.23 | 1.42 | 4.18 | 5.06 | 0.88 | 5.41 | 1.23 | 5.03 | 0.85 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.59 | 5.19 | 0.6 | 4.83 | 0.24 | 4.09 | -0.5 | 5.90 | 1.31 | 4.86 | 5.57 | 0.71 | 5.21 | 0.35 | 4.66 | -0.2 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.16 | 3.37 | 0.21 | 3.23 | 0.07 | 3.23 | 0.07 | 2.67 | -0.49 | 4.15 | 3.48 | -0.67 | 3.2 | -0.95 | 3 | -1.15 |
If you believe the estimators, especially DRA, this is a group of over-achievers this year.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.293 | 0.302 | 0.009 | 46.2% | 0.169 | 8.3% | 88.8% | 86.8 | 4.50% | 32.80% | 67 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | 0.293 | 0.293 | 0 | 42.3% | 0.18 | 18.2% | 85.6% | 85.8 | 6.50% | 30.70% | 231 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.279 | 0.233 | -0.046 | 31.9% | 0.156 | 15.0% | 83.9% | 87 | 9.00% | 33.40% | 413 |
| Bartolo Colon | MIN | 0.298 | 0.338 | 0.04 | 41.9% | 0.197 | 9.7% | 92.4% | 87.9 | 7.30% | 37.10% | 385 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.271 | -0.019 | 50.0% | 0.21 | 6.4% | 87.5% | 85.1 | 4.20% | 30.50% | 331 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.302 | 0.289 | -0.013 | 46.5% | 0.209 | 7.1% | 92.1% | 81.5 | 4.30% | 28.30% | 46 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.267 | -0.033 | 37.6% | 0.18 | 9.9% | 83.0% | 83.9 | 4.20% | 25.50% | 259 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.295 | 0.323 | 0.028 | 32.6% | 0.221 | 4.7% | 82.9% | 88.1 | 2.10% | 35.40% | 96 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.308 | 0.294 | -0.014 | 47.5% | 0.239 | 8.8% | 91.3% | 88.1 | 6.00% | 35.70% | 530 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.307 | 0.302 | -0.005 | 45.8% | 0.205 | 6.7% | 83.9% | 85.5 | 4.80% | 29.00% | 310 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.298 | -0.022 | 44.8% | 0.207 | 10.2% | 79.4% | 86 | 6.70% | 29.80% | 433 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.284 | 0.242 | -0.042 | 29.9% | 0.229 | 9.7% | 82.8% | 87 | 7.80% | 34.60% | 332 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.299 | 0.294 | -0.005 | 39.3% | 0.203 | 9.8% | 82.6% | 86.9 | 5.10% | 31.20% | 433 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.297 | 0.322 | 0.025 | 39.0% | 0.214 | 7.5% | 88.6% | 88.1 | 5.60% | 34.50% | 377 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | BAL | 0.315 | 0.257 | -0.058 | 34.1% | 0.22 | 11.6% | 87.0% | 86.8 | 7.00% | 32.40% | 445 |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 0.283 | 0.289 | 0.006 | 44.2% | 0.193 | 11.1% | 88.3% | 87.2 | 6.00% | 36.00% | 400 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.292 | 0.280 | -0.012 | 39.2% | 0.214 | 6.4% | 86.9% | 86.3 | 7.10% | 30.70% | 449 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.309 | 0.285 | -0.024 | 32.7% | 0.242 | 10.3% | 85.6% | 87.6 | 7.70% | 35.50% | 453 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.292 | 0.321 | 0.029 | 47.5% | 0.221 | 7.6% | 91.3% | 89 | 6.80% | 41.60% | 219 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.280 | 0.272 | -0.008 | 38.6% | 0.215 | 11.6% | 81.6% | 84.7 | 3.50% | 28.30% | 314 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.294 | 0.325 | 0.031 | 47.9% | 0.216 | 7.3% | 83.8% | 85.9 | 5.70% | 29.30% | 368 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.288 | 0.291 | 0.003 | 38.4% | 0.198 | 8.3% | 90.8% | 87.8 | 6.80% | 33.80% | 411 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.289 | 0.258 | -0.031 | 40.9% | 0.21 | 11.4% | 90.8% | 86.4 | 8.60% | 30.70% | 280 |
| Parker Bridwell | ANA | 0.285 | 0.267 | -0.018 | 38.8% | 0.233 | 13.2% | 88.9% | 88.4 | 4.90% | 38.70% | 243 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.305 | 0.325 | 0.02 | 39.4% | 0.207 | 10.6% | 87.4% | 88 | 7.90% | 34.90% | 521 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.293 | 0.289 | -0.004 | 39.7% | 0.191 | 5.2% | 88.4% | 88.7 | 11.60% | 39.70% | 146 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 0.303 | 0.389 | 0.086 | 52.8% | 0.306 | 16.7% | 94.2% | 85.5 | 0.00% | 30.60% | 36 |
| Travis Wood | SDG | 0.307 | 0.321 | 0.014 | 36.3% | 0.217 | 9.5% | 89.6% | 87.4 | 5.70% | 34.80% | 230 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.317 | 0.299 | -0.018 | 46.0% | 0.22 | 7.3% | 89.8% | 85.6 | 4.10% | 31.60% | 488 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.294 | 0.288 | -0.006 | 47.2% | 0.177 | 11.0% | 85.0% | 86.3 | 6.90% | 28.40% | 419 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Kenta Maeda (2t) would inspire more confidence if we could project at least six innings, especially for $10K on DraftKings, but what we might be able to project him for is the top strikeout rate,, which he combines with great contact management. Ninety pitches could get him through six with eight strikeouts. He’s reached seven in each of his last two starts.
Value Tier Two
Jacob deGrom (1) hasn’t had the greatest results in his last two starts, but is piling up the strikeouts and facing the coldest offense in the majors tonight. He’s the most expensive FanDuel pitcher, but only third costliest on DraftKings.
Value Tier Three
Justin Verlander (2t) is facing an offense that’s a bit better than their season long numbers suggest, but probably still one of the better matchups on the board with the bottom half of the lineup still consisting of mostly outs, while they may be down a top rookie bat tonight. He’s also been dominant by peripherals for over a month now, while limiting the hard contact has helped him survive a miniscule ground ball rate.
Zack Greinke (4) is the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but at least $700 more than any other arm on DraftKings. He has a high enough strikeout rate, where he can still be of some value with a slightly lower expectation tonight and while the park is of concern against any offense, the biggest one we have here is the amount of contact the Giants make rather than the quality of it.
J.A. Happ (5t) has been, dare I say the word, dominant over the last month and potentially since the break, even though he has two starts of five or more runs over that span, including last time out. It’s hard to find much fault when generating a negative Hard-Soft% and above average strikeout rate, no matter how many runs cross the plate. He could stand to improve the walk rate though.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Julio Teheran hasn’t been pitching too badly and has one of the best matchups on the slate among usable pitchers. In fact, for less than $7K, this matchup is so ideal for his skillset (just one really potent LHB), I might consider him a bit better off than the overall numbers suggest and would certainly like him to compliment a higher priced SP2 on DraftKings.
Jose Quintana (5t) is a bit over-rated and probably not someone I’d strongly consider on a better slate, but he has looked better last two times out and is in a favorable spot tonight. I’d still probably rather just avoid this altogether.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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