Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, July 20th
I hate to start back up after the All-Star break on a sour note, but this is being written entirely on Thursday night because I won’t be around in the morning. Unfortunately, FanDuel has still not posted their Friday main slate as of 9pm on Thursday. As a result, today’s article will only be referencing DraftKings pricing. FanDuel players should adjust accordingly and hopefully, the analysis comfortably allows for that.
On a more positive note, I’ve updated league averages over the break. Everything has remained fairly steady. HR/FB hasn’t moved, average starter K% is down .02 points, BABIP is up .002 points. ERA and estimators are all up very slightly, less than five points.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 4.2 | 4.01 | 5.4 | 38.1% | 1.00 | 4.76 | 3.43 | Nationals | 98 | 94 | 99 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -2.7 | 4.19 | 6.1 | 59.5% | 0.99 | 4.25 | 6.65 | Phillies | 96 | 84 | 74 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.8 | 3.78 | 6.3 | 60.0% | 0.92 | 3.38 | 4.00 | Angels | 100 | 89 | 126 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.5 | 4.52 | 5.5 | 32.4% | 0.94 | 4.72 | 5.18 | Rays | 108 | 101 | 151 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 4.9 | 4.34 | 6.1 | 37.0% | 1.04 | 4.63 | 3.87 | Twins | 87 | 90 | 136 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 6 | 3.99 | 6.1 | 41.5% | 1.02 | 4.22 | 2.28 | Tigers | 95 | 105 | 57 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | -6.4 | 4.28 | 5.7 | 43.3% | 0.95 | 4.47 | 5.54 | Athletics | 88 | 108 | 93 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 6.2 | 3.69 | 5.3 | 41.1% | 1.03 | 3.18 | 4.55 | Mets | 100 | 94 | 71 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | -8.8 | 4.21 | 5.7 | 34.6% | 1.01 | 4.29 | 6.21 | Blue Jays | 101 | 100 | 107 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.3 | 5.05 | 5.6 | 38.1% | 0.95 | 5.44 | 6.67 | Giants | 83 | 97 | 75 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -1.8 | 4.14 | 5.5 | 46.3% | 1.00 | 4.10 | 1.97 | Diamondbacks | 92 | 81 | 75 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | -0.9 | 3.70 | 5.0 | 45.5% | 1.01 | 3.71 | 4.12 | Cubs | 114 | 108 | 89 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -8.1 | 4.27 | 5.8 | 49.6% | 0.99 | 4.05 | 3.92 | Padres | 71 | 81 | 85 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -5.3 | 5.03 | 5.8 | 37.0% | 0.91 | 5.28 | 4.56 | Mariners | 105 | 103 | 72 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -3.1 | 3.91 | 5.5 | 49.4% | 1.04 | 4.13 | 2.55 | Reds | 102 | 100 | 133 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.12 | 5.9 | 43.9% | 1.01 | 4.14 | 5.16 | Cardinals | 98 | 91 | 84 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.5 | 4.51 | 5.8 | 48.4% | 1.04 | 4.08 | 3.66 | Royals | 82 | 81 | 102 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 2.8 | 5.04 | 5.8 | 48.9% | 1.14 | 4.96 | 4.57 | Indians | 89 | 107 | 125 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 2.7 | 4.63 | 5.3 | 36.2% | 1.02 | 5.13 | 3.26 | Red Sox | 106 | 99 | 125 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 2 | 3.99 | 5.5 | 47.6% | 0.94 | 3.26 | 3.44 | Marlins | 90 | 90 | 95 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | -5.4 | 3.17 | 5.6 | 49.6% | 1.03 | 3.06 | 5.38 | Yankees | 123 | 111 | 129 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.58 | 5.2 | 36.4% | 1.04 | 3.75 | 3.62 | Brewers | 94 | 82 | 89 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.47 | 5.5 | 41.4% | 1.00 | 3.75 | 3.59 | Rockies | 85 | 97 | 146 |
| Sam Gaviglio | BlueJays | 4.54 | 5.1 | 49.6% | 4.68 | |||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | -4.1 | 3.32 | 6.1 | 43.4% | 1.00 | 3.37 | Braves | 107 | 93 | 67 | |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 5.8 | 3.70 | 6.1 | 45.8% | 1.14 | 3.62 | 3.17 | Rangers | 102 | 89 | 74 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | -2.4 | 4.57 | 5.2 | 41.4% | 1.04 | 3.35 | 5.61 | Pirates | 89 | 94 | 112 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 3.5 | 4.03 | 5.4 | 44.5% | 0.92 | 4.11 | 3.23 | Astros | 121 | 121 | 79 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | -1.4 | 4.10 | 5.5 | 38.7% | 0.91 | 4.21 | 4.77 | White Sox | 91 | 91 | 109 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.69 | 4.9 | 50.1% | 1.04 | 4.81 | 6.05 | Dodgers | 104 | 96 | 103 |
Anibal Sanchez has remained a pleasant surprise for the Braves. While his estimators don’t entirely back up the results, they’re still quite impressive with a strikeout rate above average (23.7%) and even higher over the last month (26.1%). He also has the lowest aEV (84.2 mph) and 95+ mph EV (26.4%) on the board which gives him the sixth best xwOBA (.293). Home run issues from recent seasons have not been a problem through 11 starts. His cutter (17.2%) and split finger (18.3%) both have a wOBA below .250. Washington is now a bit healthier than their season numbers reflect with peripherals much better than below average wRC+ marks.
Dallas Keuchel is still missing bats at a well below average rate (17 K% season and month), but has allowed just three runs over his last 20 innings due to a 59 GB% and -11.3 Hard-Soft%. Weak ground balls aren’t necessarily what we’re looking for in daily fantasy without some strikeout potential, but when the contact management has been this dominant with a pitcher who can give you six innings in a decent spot, it’s something worth considering. The Angels have just a 20.4 K% vs LHP and are predominantly right-handed, but that has still led to an 89 wRC+ and 11.8 HR/FB against southpaws. There really aren’t very many dangerous bats in this lineup.
Danny Duffy has gone at least six innings in seven straight starts (seven innings twice) and, although he’s allowed six earned runs twice in that span, he’s allowed a total of one run over the other five starts, striking out at least seven five times as well. His season strikeout rate is now up over 20% and 24.5% over the last month. The overall numbers still suggest he’s having a poor season, but this seems like a different pitcher over his last seven starts with the two beatings coming at the hands of the Astros and Indians. The Twins are certainly not that caliber of offense this year against LHP (90 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 7.1 HR/FB).
Domingo German has allowed 12 HRs in 12 starts, but has allowed just 5.1% Barrels/BBE this season. However, only half those HRs have come in half those starts at home. He did tie a season high with four walks in Cleveland last time out, but that was a tough offense. The Mets aren’t terrible (94 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP) and do add a DH today (could even be Cespedes), but they’re a banged up offense and I’m still buying that his elevated ERA is more a function of strand rate issues than anything else. His 14.9 SwStr% is best on the board.
German Marquez has a similar home/road xFIP around four for his career, but a HR/FB that drops from 20% to 13.3% on the road, which has allowed him to maintain a 3.90 ERA and 4.13 FIP on the road. He’s allowed four total runs over his last 20 innings (22 strikeouts) including a strong start against these Diamondbacks at home last time out. Now, he gets a park upgrade in the rematch against a team that is probably a bit better than their 81 wRC+ when healthy, but the 24.4 K% might stick.
Jake Arrieta has struck out 18 Pirates in two starts, but more than five in only one other start this season. The Padres (81 wRC+, 25.9 K%) are going to be the real test of his ability to miss bats…or fail to do so. He has completed seven innings in two straight and his 55.3 GB% is actually second highest on the board.
Jameson Taillon threw no sliders through May 5th. He threw a few over the next three starts. They’ve comprised a quarter of his pitches since then. His usage of the pitch (24.4%) nearly matches his strikeout rate (24.6%) over that span. By Statcast measures, it has the second highest whiff rate (29.9%) among all his pitches. His ground ball rate is up to 51.7% over this nine start span as well. The matchup is not ideal. The Reds are a difficult offense (11.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in a dangerous park, but his ability to miss bats and generate ground balls should serve him well here.
Nathan Eovaldi made me look like an idiot last time out. He had struck out nine without allowed a single run in two of his last three starts. I talked about how his Statcast page showed an elevated fastball, a feature of the Rays’ organization and raved about finally unlocking his potential. He proceeded to allow eight runs to the Twins in 2.2 innings with just a single strikeout. In my humble defense, he did a really (expletive) job of “locating his fastball”:https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/pitch3d?player_id=543135 in that start. What he wants to do has lots of potential, but it seems to not be something he’s always able to do and when he doesn’t, he gets hammered (9.6% Barrels/BBE). Let’s try again against the Marlins (90 wRC+, 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP)?
Noah Syndergaard struck out just three of 22 Nationals in his return from the DL and may be in the worst spot on the board in Yankee Stadium tonight (123 wRC+, 19.4 HR/FB at home, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but his 14.5 SwStr%, 3.1% Barrels/BBE and .281 xwOBA are all second best on the board. He misses bats (27.2 K%) and generates weak contact (86.2 mph aEV).
Robbie Ray continues to do very Robbie Ray things in three starts back from the DL (22 Ks, 8 BBs, 5 HRs). He has completed six innings just three times this year and has not recorded an out in the seventh yet. He also has the highest strikeout rate on the board (34.1%). The Rockies are a much more dangerous offense against LHP, but that really only gets them to league average with only half of their lineup full of outs and this game is in Arizona.
Sam Gaviglio has struck out just two of his last 27 batters, but has faced the Braves and Red Sox in his last two starts (two of the most contact prone offenses in the majors). His numbers are around league average (21.5 K%) and he’s facing a Baltimore offense (81 wRC+, 17.1 K-BB% vs RHP), who just traded away their best player. On the downside, while he’s completed seven innings in two of his last eight starts, he’s failed to even complete five in any of the other six.
Trevor Bauer struck out seven of 29 Yankees last time out, snapping a streak of eight straight starts with at least eight strikeouts. His 31.4 K% is second best on the board, 35.8% over this nine start stretch. While his ERA is a bit below his estimators, his 3.08 SIERA is still best on the board, as is his .273 xwOBA. His contact management has improved greatly since last season and this is something that may be getting lost in all the strikeouts. While he’s in the worst park on the board in Texas tonight (and really the only significantly run positive one), he’s also facing an offense with a 25.3 K% vs RHP, which is the third highest split on the board.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Wade LeBlanc (.272 – 79.9% – 11.9) has finally seen his breakout come to an end. In addition to the 16.3 K% over the last month (although with a 9.8 SwStr% and starts in Colorado and Boston), he’s allowed 19 runs (five HRs) over 27.2 innings. He is in one of the top spots on the board though (White Sox 91 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP).
Derrick Rodriguez (.296 – 75.7% – 6.4) is facing a hard hitting offense (A’s 108 wRC+ and 23.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and his 2.1% Barrels/BBE seems a bit fluky with an 88.3 mph aEV and 43.3 GB%.
Edwin Jackson (.211 – 76.6% – 7.1) hasn’t been bad for the A’s by results and while the Statcast numbers are fair, the peripherals are not very impressive.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
David Price has has some interesting starts in July, getting bombed by the Yankees, allowing four runs in 4.2 innings, but striking out nine Royals and then 6.2 innings of three run ball against the Blue Jays with nine strikeouts. Strikeouts have been very hit or miss recently, keeping his season and last 30 days rate at around a quarter of batters despite a below average SwStr%. He has also allowed 11 HRs over his last five starts with at least one in every one. His .390 xwOBA over the last month is worst on the board. The Tigers have been a surprisingly contact prone (20.2 K%) and formidable offense against LHP (105 wRC+).
Stephen Strasburg did face 24 batters in his second of two rehab starts and struck out seven of them, but both outings took place against A ball hitters and he’s the second most expensive pitcher on the board (and one of only two above $10K) against a contact prone offense (20.6 K% vs RHP).
James Shields got destroyed by Houston two starts back, but has still struck out 16 of his last 58 batters and has thrown at least 97 pitches in 12 of his last 13 starts. Look at his season strikeout rate. Below 20%. Look at his SwStr% for the season and over the last 30 days. League average. He has a 20.1 K% over the last month. I know all the bad we’ve seen from him over the last few seasons and still can’t say I like him against a good, contact prone offense (20.3 K% vs RHP), but it’s a great park, he doesn’t cost much, and has been going deep into games almost every time out. It may not be as insane as it may have even recently seemed.
Tyler Skaggs has gone seven innings in three of his last six starts and less than six innings just once in that span without allowing more than a single earned run once. He has a 26.1 K% on the season with an xwOBA just above .300 (.301) due to an 89 mph aEV that’s one of the higher marks on the board. The Angels play in a negative run environment, but the Astros have a 121 wRC+ and 20 K% both on the road and vs LHP. He’s the third most expensive pitcher on DraftKings.
Rich Hill threw seven innings last time out, has a 24.7 K% and the Brewers have just an 82 wRC+ vs LHP. However, he costs $8.6K, has exceeded 100 pitches just once this season with an 8.2 SwStr% and the Brewers have a 11.4 K-BB% and 14.8 HR/FB vs LHP.
Tyler Mahle can miss some bats and is cheap, but has allowed 12 HRs in eight home starts and the Pirates don’t strike out against anyone except Arrieta apparently (19.5 K% vs RHP).
Kyle Gibson has been fine, but finds himself with one of the more expensive price tags against an offense with just a 19.9 K% vs RHP. They also have an 81 wRC+, 6.7 BB% and 8.3 HR/FB vs RHP though.
Clayton Richard did complete six innings with just two earned runs in his last start, but has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in three straight starts, giving him a -8.0 K-BB% in July. Although he’s sustained a 59.2 GB% over that span, it’s with a 49% hard hit rate.
Matt Boyd has struck out 28 of his last 108 batters faced. He’s also allowed six HRs with a 40% hard hit rate over that span. He faces a much improved Boston offense vs LHP, though at least he gets them at home.
Dan Straily allows way too much hard contact, but still strikes out enough batters to okay be useful at a cheap price in a great park with a nice matchup. That doesn’t really fit here. The Rays are not a bad overall offense and don’t offer a lot of strikeout upside.
Dylan Bundy is now a home run machine with a below average strikeout rate over the last month and a total of five Ks and BBs each over his last two starts.
Wade Miley will be facing a Dodgers’ lineup that probably just got a bit better against LHP.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 6.0% | 15.7% | 14.1% | Season | 23.7% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 3.9% | Road | 20.7% | 8.0% | 18.4% | 13.5% | L14Days | 25.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 14.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.1% | 8.1% | 16.6% | 17.6% | Season | 17.6% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 22.3% | Road | 16.0% | 8.4% | 21.7% | 19.9% | L14Days | 10.7% | 18.7% | 11.1% | 39.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 7.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | Season | 17.8% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 3.8% | Road | 20.7% | 7.3% | 17.5% | 7.1% | L14Days | 16.3% | 6.3% | -11.3% | |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 18.8% | Season | 19.5% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 31.6% | Road | 20.5% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 17.5% | L14Days | 16.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 19.7% | Season | 20.5% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 23.3% | Home | 20.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 18.9% | L14Days | 24.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 9.1% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% | Season | 24.2% | 7.6% | 14.4% | 12.3% | Road | 23.7% | 7.5% | 15.3% | 12.1% | L14Days | 34.7% | 2.0% | 27.3% | 25.0% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 18.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 24.8% | Season | 18.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 24.8% | Road | 17.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 29.2% | L14Days | 11.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% | |
| Domingo German | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 27.3% | 9.7% | 16.5% | 18.8% | Season | 27.0% | 8.8% | 16.9% | 21.4% | Home | 31.2% | 10.7% | 20.5% | 12.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 21.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 15.9% | Season | 25.7% | 7.7% | 15.2% | 18.3% | Road | 25.0% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 22.3% | L14Days | 12.5% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 23.3% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 17.2% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 12.6% | Season | 17.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | Home | 20.0% | 10.0% | 18.6% | 7.1% | L14Days | 7.8% | 13.7% | 5.1% | |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 7.4% | 16.4% | 15.8% | Season | 23.5% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 14.2% | Road | 21.9% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 16.1% | L14Days | 27.7% | 4.3% | 66.7% | -6.3% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 26.6% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 12.2% | Season | 28.2% | 7.8% | 14.9% | 10.9% | Road | 26.0% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 17.4% | L14Days | 24.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | -8.1% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 7.6% | Season | 17.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | Home | 21.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 5.0% | L14Days | 21.6% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 17.4% | Season | 17.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 18.4% | Road | 17.9% | 9.7% | 16.9% | 17.3% | L14Days | 22.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 27.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 10.6% | Season | 23.3% | 6.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% | Road | 20.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 14.3% | L14Days | 33.3% | 4.2% | 11.1% | -6.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 10.6% | Season | 19.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 17.8% | Home | 21.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 8.2% | L14Days | 18.0% | 12.0% | 18.2% | 5.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 19.3% | Season | 23.7% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 18.8% | Road | 20.6% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 16.6% | L14Days | 25.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 24.1% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 13.5% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 17.8% | Season | 11.7% | 9.7% | 19.4% | 28.6% | Home | 14.3% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 18.4% | L14Days | 15.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.2% | Season | 21.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 15.5% | Home | 17.8% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 16.8% | L14Days | 25.0% | 2.3% | 23.1% | 25.8% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 5.2% | 16.9% | 14.4% | Season | 22.5% | 4.0% | 18.9% | 12.3% | Home | 30.8% | 5.1% | 20.0% | 29.1% | L14Days | 22.7% | 4.6% | 14.3% | 25.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 27.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 3.3% | Season | 27.2% | 5.2% | 9.4% | -2.6% | Road | 23.5% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | L14Days | 13.6% | 9.1% | -17.6% | |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 28.7% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 16.1% | Season | 24.7% | 8.2% | 17.7% | 31.0% | Road | 29.2% | 6.6% | 15.7% | 13.6% | L14Days | 25.9% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 47.2% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 32.5% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 25.8% | Season | 34.1% | 12.6% | 20.4% | 34.8% | Home | 31.1% | 12.0% | 24.7% | 32.1% | L14Days | 31.9% | 11.6% | 29.4% | 39.5% |
| Sam Gaviglio | BlueJays | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 7.9% | 19.1% | 14.9% | Season | 21.5% | 7.3% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 15.8% | 5.0% | 23.6% | 16.5% | L14Days | 16.7% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 31.4% | |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 29.0% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | Season | 29.1% | 5.8% | 18.2% | 15.3% | Home | 28.2% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 10.5% | L14Days | ||||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.4% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 17.4% | Season | 31.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 18.6% | Road | 28.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 15.9% | L14Days | 30.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 10.9% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 22.3% | Season | 22.3% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 26.8% | Home | 29.5% | 8.8% | 27.3% | 25.2% | L14Days | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 15.2% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 16.4% | Season | 26.1% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 23.6% | Home | 21.5% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 21.5% | L14Days | 21.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 5.1% | 14.6% | 13.0% | Season | 18.1% | 4.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | Home | 19.5% | 5.2% | 14.0% | 11.1% | L14Days | 14.7% | 4.4% | 19.2% | 9.2% |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 11.3% | 18.1% | 17.5% | Season | 18.0% | 18.0% | 31.2% | Home | 19.2% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 11.1% | L14Days | 21.7% | 21.7% | -7.7% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 21.1% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 12.4% | RH | 21.0% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 12.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.4% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 8.0% | LH | 23.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | -2.0% |
| Angels | Home | 21.0% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 20.4% | LH | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 16.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.3% | 18.3% | 26.0% |
| Rays | Home | 22.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 16.3% | RH | 22.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 15.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 6.4% | 12.7% | 20.7% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 16.7% | LH | 23.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 28.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 23.7% | LH | 20.2% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 17.7% | L7Days | 28.8% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 12.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 25.9% | RH | 22.1% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 23.8% | L7Days | 25.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% |
| Mets | Road | 21.9% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 20.4% | RH | 21.5% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 16.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.3% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 13.3% | RH | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 16.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| Giants | Road | 24.1% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 18.9% | RH | 23.5% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 19.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 14.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.7% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 25.4% | RH | 24.4% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 20.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 18.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.5% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.2% | RH | 21.1% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 25.2% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Padres | Road | 26.2% | 6.6% | 11.0% | 16.8% | RH | 25.9% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 26.3% | 7.7% | 16.1% | 30.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.2% | 6.6% | 13.5% | 8.9% | RH | 20.3% | 6.7% | 14.0% | 15.0% | L7Days | 20.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 11.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.7% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 25.5% | RH | 21.0% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 20.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 22.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 25.0% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 19.6% | LH | 23.8% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 20.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 19.4% |
| Royals | Home | 20.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 25.9% | RH | 19.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 22.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 6.1% | 13.3% | 21.7% |
| Indians | Road | 21.5% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 18.2% | LH | 18.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 18.0% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.7% | 18.3% | 27.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.1% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 20.0% | LH | 23.2% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.8% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 13.2% | RH | 22.5% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 16.7% | L7Days | 15.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 18.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.2% | 11.3% | 19.4% | 22.7% | RH | 23.5% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 18.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.6% | 17.9% | 21.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.2% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 25.8% | LH | 21.0% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 20.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.8% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 16.7% | LH | 21.9% | 8.0% | 16.9% | 17.6% | L7Days | 15.5% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 23.2% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 18.5% | RH | 20.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 18.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 15.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.1% | 10.3% | 14.9% | 24.0% | RH | 25.3% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 21.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 15.6% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 3.9% |
| Astros | Road | 19.7% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 22.4% | LH | 20.3% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 17.6% | L7Days | 15.9% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 6.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.1% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 16.8% | LH | 25.5% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 14.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 13.5% | -3.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 19.3% | LH | 22.1% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 18.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 25.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.49 | 26.1% | 10.1% | 2.58 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 17.6% | 9.1% | 1.93 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 1.92 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.05 | 17.1% | 8.7% | 1.97 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.89 | 19.3% | 9.4% | 2.05 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.99 | 24.5% | 11.5% | 2.13 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.72 | 25.4% | 9.5% | 2.67 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 18.7% | 9.4% | 1.99 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 2.36 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 27.0% | 14.9% | 1.81 | 25.4% | 13.4% | 1.90 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 25.7% | 13.3% | 1.93 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 1.98 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 17.4% | 8.3% | 2.10 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 2.10 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 23.5% | 10.0% | 2.35 | 26.5% | 11.3% | 2.35 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 28.2% | 12.4% | 2.27 | 31.2% | 13.8% | 2.26 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.36 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 2.38 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 17.1% | 10.0% | 1.71 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 1.93 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 23.3% | 10.2% | 2.28 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 2.17 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.25 | 15.2% | 5.4% | 2.81 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 23.7% | 11.8% | 2.01 | 23.6% | 13.5% | 1.75 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 11.7% | 5.9% | 1.98 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.56 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 21.1% | 9.9% | 2.13 | 25.9% | 10.7% | 2.42 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 22.5% | 10.6% | 2.12 | 26.1% | 12.9% | 2.02 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 27.2% | 14.5% | 1.88 | 13.6% | 8.0% | 1.70 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 24.7% | 8.2% | 3.01 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 3.00 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 34.1% | 13.5% | 2.53 | 31.1% | 13.6% | 2.29 |
| Sam Gaviglio | BlueJays | 21.5% | 9.1% | 2.36 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.21 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 29.1% | 11.6% | 2.51 | |||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 31.4% | 13.2% | 2.38 | 32.1% | 13.4% | 2.40 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.17 | 25.0% | 12.6% | 1.98 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 26.1% | 11.4% | 2.29 | 27.1% | 12.3% | 2.20 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 18.1% | 8.9% | 2.03 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.66 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 18.0% | 10.4% | 1.73 | 21.7% | 14.7% | 1.48 |
The guy we’re possibly looking at today is… James Shields? The numbers don’t lie though. Same SwStr%, increased K%. However, he has had a higher SwStr% in two of the last three seasons.
On the negative end, Rich Hill could be in some trouble, but has still only made 11 starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 2.60 | 3.89 | 1.29 | 2.60 | 1.43 | 3.65 | 1.05 | 3.13 | 0.53 | 3.49 | 3.67 | 0.18 | 3.94 | 0.45 | 2.90 | -0.59 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.43 | 4.28 | -0.15 | 4.43 | -0.39 | 4.17 | -0.26 | 5.28 | 0.85 | 4.80 | 5.40 | 0.60 | 5.23 | 0.43 | 4.58 | -0.22 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.75 | 3.97 | 0.22 | 3.75 | -0.06 | 3.73 | -0.02 | 3.69 | -0.06 | 2.17 | 4.03 | 1.86 | 3.67 | 1.50 | 2.58 | 0.41 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.29 | 4.92 | 0.63 | 4.29 | 0.56 | 5.43 | 1.14 | 4.77 | 0.48 | 4.39 | 4.81 | 0.42 | 4.98 | 0.59 | 4.91 | 0.52 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 4.59 | 4.76 | 0.17 | 4.59 | 0.37 | 4.98 | 0.39 | 5.79 | 1.20 | 3.16 | 4.14 | 0.98 | 4.17 | 1.01 | 3.55 | 0.39 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 4.42 | 3.89 | -0.53 | 4.42 | -0.32 | 4.38 | -0.04 | 4.49 | 0.07 | 6.41 | 3.35 | -3.06 | 3.82 | -2.59 | 7.04 | 0.63 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 2.89 | 4.28 | 1.39 | 2.89 | 1.34 | 3.42 | 0.53 | 4.89 | 2.00 | 1.93 | 4.10 | 2.17 | 3.95 | 2.02 | 3.07 | 1.14 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 5.49 | 3.65 | -1.84 | 5.49 | -1.67 | 4.42 | -1.07 | 3.66 | -1.83 | 6.04 | 3.78 | -2.26 | 3.97 | -2.07 | 4.60 | -1.44 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 4.35 | 3.81 | -0.54 | 4.35 | -0.23 | 4.55 | 0.20 | 4.06 | -0.29 | 7.32 | 4.83 | -2.49 | 4.93 | -2.39 | 5.33 | -1.99 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.59 | 4.72 | 2.13 | 2.59 | 2.02 | 3.80 | 1.21 | 6.30 | 3.71 | 2.59 | 4.73 | 2.14 | 4.61 | 2.02 | 3.80 | 1.21 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 4.81 | 3.93 | -0.88 | 4.81 | -1.02 | 4.43 | -0.38 | 3.92 | -0.89 | 3.99 | 3.15 | -0.84 | 2.79 | -1.20 | 3.45 | -0.54 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 3.24 | 3.43 | 0.19 | 3.24 | 0.24 | 3.76 | 0.52 | 2.71 | -0.53 | 3.68 | 3.40 | -0.28 | 3.39 | -0.29 | 4.00 | 0.32 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 3.23 | 4.34 | 1.11 | 3.23 | 0.88 | 4.06 | 0.83 | 4.38 | 1.15 | 3.00 | 4.17 | 1.17 | 3.87 | 0.87 | 4.68 | 1.68 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 4.43 | 4.98 | 0.55 | 4.43 | 0.67 | 4.49 | 0.06 | 3.88 | -0.55 | 3.93 | 4.63 | 0.70 | 4.69 | 0.76 | 4.51 | 0.58 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 3.91 | 3.73 | -0.18 | 3.91 | -0.34 | 3.61 | -0.30 | 3.10 | -0.81 | 3.81 | 3.47 | -0.34 | 3.11 | -0.70 | 3.21 | -0.60 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 2.58 | 4.64 | 2.06 | 2.58 | 2.01 | 4.34 | 1.76 | 3.81 | 1.23 | 3.45 | 5.35 | 1.90 | 5.16 | 1.71 | 4.64 | 1.19 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.42 | 4.07 | 0.65 | 3.42 | 0.39 | 3.79 | 0.37 | 3.75 | 0.33 | 3.82 | 3.85 | 0.03 | 3.58 | -0.24 | 3.72 | -0.10 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 7.67 | 5.48 | -2.19 | 7.67 | -2.05 | 6.72 | -0.95 | 9.15 | 1.48 | 1.29 | 4.57 | 3.28 | 4.02 | 2.73 | 2.86 | 1.57 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 4.76 | 4.51 | -0.25 | 4.76 | 0.05 | 4.27 | -0.49 | 5.64 | 0.88 | 9.78 | 3.70 | -6.08 | 4.07 | -5.71 | 5.41 | -4.37 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 4.59 | 3.58 | -1.01 | 4.59 | -0.98 | 4.46 | -0.13 | 2.99 | -1.60 | 4.55 | 3.30 | -1.25 | 3.47 | -1.08 | 4.52 | -0.03 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2.97 | 3.14 | 0.17 | 2.97 | -0.03 | 2.63 | -0.34 | 2.30 | -0.67 | 1.80 | 5.38 | 3.58 | 4.78 | 2.98 | 3.14 | 1.34 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 4.55 | 3.92 | -0.63 | 4.55 | -0.39 | 4.92 | 0.37 | 4.31 | -0.24 | 3.23 | 3.29 | 0.06 | 3.63 | 0.40 | 3.73 | 0.50 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 5.03 | 3.48 | -1.55 | 5.03 | -1.45 | 4.61 | -0.42 | 2.43 | -2.60 | 5.23 | 3.60 | -1.63 | 3.85 | -1.38 | 5.18 | -0.05 |
| Sam Gaviglio | BlueJays | 4.58 | 4.01 | -0.57 | 4.58 | -0.44 | 4.67 | 0.09 | 5.44 | 0.86 | 5.76 | 4.15 | -1.61 | 4.25 | -1.51 | 5.02 | -0.74 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 3.46 | 3.09 | -0.37 | 3.46 | -0.48 | 3.58 | 0.12 | 2.77 | -0.69 | |||||||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.24 | 3.08 | 0.84 | 2.24 | 0.80 | 2.23 | -0.01 | 2.17 | -0.07 | 1.27 | 2.92 | 1.65 | 2.9 | 1.63 | 1.90 | 0.63 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 4.02 | 4.36 | 0.34 | 4.02 | 0.19 | 4.73 | 0.71 | 5.36 | 1.34 | 4.21 | 4.40 | 0.19 | 4.15 | -0.06 | 4.59 | 0.38 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 2.57 | 3.49 | 0.92 | 2.57 | 0.80 | 3.01 | 0.44 | 3.27 | 0.70 | 1.50 | 3.10 | 1.60 | 2.7 | 1.20 | 1.70 | 0.20 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 3.63 | 4.33 | 0.70 | 3.63 | 0.86 | 4.38 | 0.75 | 5.47 | 1.84 | 4.58 | 4.31 | -0.27 | 4.25 | -0.33 | 4.47 | -0.11 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 2.38 | 5.86 | 3.48 | 2.38 | 2.71 | 3.94 | 1.56 | 5.46 | 3.08 | 3.60 | 6.05 | 2.45 | 5.12 | 1.52 | 4.14 | 0.54 |
Anibal Sanchez has a .240 BABIP and 81.4 LOB% with a 9.9 HR/FB that initially looks a bit suspect as well, but when you realize he’s generated the weakest contact on the board, there’s some hope that he can continue out-performing his peripherals. Not that this stuff is entirely projectable, but it does suggest that he at least deserves an ERA a bit below his estimators thus far. There’s likely to be at least some regression either way, but even the estimators are not bad.
Domingo German has a .289 BABIP (fine), 16.9 HR/FB (maybe Yankee Stadium) and a 64.8 LOB% (regression incoming?).
German Marquez has a 17.9 HR/FB with most of his issues coming at home.
Jake Arrieta has just a 67% strand rate, yet his ERA is around a run below his estimators because 28.8% of his runs have been unearned. That can’t all be bad defense.
Nathan Eovaldi has a .235 BABIP and 67.6 LOB%, but an 18.9 HR/FB, which actually has his ERA well above his estimators through nine starts.
Robbie Ray has a .343 BABIP and 20.4 HR/FB.
Trevor Bauer has a 5.2 HR/FB (5.1 HR/FB over his last nine starts as well). This portion of his dominance is probably unsustainable.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.278 | 0.240 | -0.038 | 41.4% | 17.8% | 7.0% | 83.8% | 35.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.304 | 0.288 | -0.016 | 57.9% | 20.8% | 7.7% | 88.7% | 36.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.275 | 0.297 | 0.022 | 55.0% | 21.6% | 9.8% | 89.2% | 33.8% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.250 | -0.043 | 32.0% | 29.6% | 10.3% | 88.6% | 40.8% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.310 | 0.290 | -0.020 | 34.0% | 22.0% | 9.3% | 85.8% | 39.8% |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.294 | 0.292 | -0.002 | 40.2% | 18.3% | 13.6% | 86.4% | 36.0% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.299 | 0.296 | -0.003 | 43.3% | 23.4% | 12.8% | 88.7% | 33.4% |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.289 | 0.009 | 39.1% | 22.3% | 9.6% | 79.5% | 30.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.321 | 0.300 | -0.021 | 34.6% | 19.2% | 9.1% | 84.3% | 33.2% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.275 | 0.211 | -0.064 | 32.4% | 28.2% | 21.4% | 90.7% | 42.8% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.310 | 0.005 | 46.2% | 22.1% | 8.4% | 88.1% | 39.0% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.287 | 0.269 | -0.018 | 44.7% | 20.0% | 14.9% | 82.8% | 39.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.296 | 0.272 | -0.024 | 55.3% | 17.8% | 10.8% | 91.4% | 32.4% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.291 | 0.255 | -0.036 | 36.6% | 20.6% | 7.8% | 86.2% | 37.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.302 | 0.295 | -0.007 | 49.7% | 19.3% | 5.4% | 85.4% | 33.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.273 | 0.253 | -0.020 | 38.2% | 24.1% | 7.5% | 87.1% | 39.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.310 | 0.275 | -0.035 | 46.5% | 22.6% | 13.4% | 87.6% | 34.5% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.371 | 0.069 | 48.6% | 18.9% | 5.6% | 95.7% | 41.1% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.262 | -0.028 | 31.8% | 22.5% | 10.9% | 85.0% | 37.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.271 | 0.235 | -0.036 | 49.0% | 14.5% | 17.0% | 84.5% | 38.9% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.300 | 0.346 | 0.046 | 46.3% | 25.8% | 7.5% | 85.9% | 34.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.293 | 0.306 | 0.013 | 36.4% | 22.5% | 8.1% | 85.6% | 35.2% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.283 | 0.343 | 0.060 | 33.6% | 21.8% | 8.2% | 84.2% | 33.4% |
| Sam Gaviglio | BlueJays | 0.288 | 50.0% | 14.1% | 6.6% | 92.7% | 32.8% | ||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.289 | 0.002 | 44.2% | 24.0% | 4.5% | 83.6% | 33.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 43.5% | 21.3% | 10.3% | 85.0% | 31.4% |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.295 | 0.305 | 0.010 | 39.1% | 24.6% | 8.7% | 83.6% | 36.2% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.295 | 0.318 | 0.023 | 47.9% | 19.8% | 9.4% | 81.6% | 32.1% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.272 | -0.023 | 37.0% | 20.3% | 6.8% | 86.4% | 27.9% |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.275 | 0.250 | -0.025 | 53.1% | 21.9% | 12.5% | 86.7% | 32.3% |
Anibal Sanchez has a decent profile and defense, but the expectation should not be for the BABIP to remain this low.
Nathan Eovaldi has a really strong profile and really strong defense, while the elevated fastball should lead to weaker contact when it stays in the yard.
Noah Syndergaard has a .346 BABIP with a 25.8 LD% that seems likely to regress. The defense does him on favors though.
Robbie Ray doesn’t look all that awful, but let’s look below for more.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.293 | -0.019 | 0.348 | 0.022 | 0.291 | -0.013 | 0.100 | 84.2 | 5.6 | 26.400 | 178 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.341 | -0.022 | 0.349 | 0.011 | 0.375 | -0.019 | -1.900 | 89.2 | 5.1 | 38.300 | 376 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.304 | -0.001 | 0.300 | 0.004 | 0.285 | -0.013 | -0.300 | 87.6 | 4.5 | 34.800 | 396 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.385 | -0.059 | 0.344 | -0.013 | 0.326 | -0.030 | -0.400 | 88.9 | 8.6 | 40.700 | 209 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.365 | -0.033 | 0.354 | -0.028 | 0.306 | -0.035 | 0.500 | 89.1 | 7.6 | 39.100 | 343 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.340 | -0.016 | 0.333 | -0.005 | 0.390 | 0.028 | -0.800 | 88.1 | 8.9 | 36.800 | 302 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.301 | 0.005 | 0.340 | 0.013 | 0.266 | 0.007 | -0.100 | 88.3 | 2.1 | 36.600 | 145 |
| Domingo German | Yankees | 0.306 | 0.019 | 0.284 | -0.004 | 0.311 | 0.043 | -1.000 | 87.8 | 5.1 | 37.200 | 215 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.347 | -0.018 | 0.334 | -0.015 | 0.382 | 0.018 | -1.300 | 89.2 | 10.3 | 38.600 | 290 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.318 | -0.065 | 0.339 | 0.011 | 0.318 | -0.065 | -0.200 | 85.9 | 5.5 | 30.100 | 73 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.304 | 0.027 | 0.313 | -0.001 | 0.284 | 0.004 | -1.600 | 88.3 | 5.6 | 37.000 | 303 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.286 | -0.004 | 0.299 | 0.009 | 0.266 | 0.024 | 1.000 | 85.9 | 5.2 | 32.300 | 192 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.315 | -0.020 | 0.283 | -0.011 | 0.341 | -0.043 | -0.800 | 86.9 | 4.2 | 32.600 | 313 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.353 | -0.050 | 0.383 | -0.027 | 0.361 | -0.060 | 0.700 | 88.3 | 8.2 | 36.200 | 392 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.291 | 0.003 | 0.300 | 0.004 | 0.319 | -0.016 | -0.200 | 87.6 | 4.2 | 34.500 | 307 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.352 | -0.058 | 0.324 | -0.019 | 0.378 | -0.050 | -0.300 | 88.7 | 6.8 | 36.900 | 325 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.320 | -0.029 | 0.323 | -0.021 | 0.325 | 0.001 | 0.800 | 87.2 | 6.0 | 37.100 | 318 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.405 | 0.025 | 0.382 | -0.010 | 0.259 | -0.023 | -1.100 | 90 | 7.1 | 44.600 | 112 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.299 | 0.001 | 0.318 | -0.012 | 0.291 | 0.091 | -0.800 | 86.4 | 4.3 | 28.700 | 282 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Rays | 0.325 | -0.035 | 0.333 | -0.097 | 0.342 | -0.016 | -0.900 | 89.1 | 9.6 | 39.000 | 146 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.281 | 0.017 | 0.297 | -0.032 | 0.363 | 0.047 | -0.100 | 86.2 | 3.1 | 31.100 | 193 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.368 | -0.026 | 0.297 | 0.017 | 0.320 | -0.025 | -0.600 | 87.7 | 9.5 | 41.100 | 158 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.331 | 0.013 | 0.349 | -0.004 | 0.321 | 0.041 | -0.300 | 90.3 | 10.7 | 45.500 | 112 |
| Sam Gaviglio | BlueJays | 0.321 | 0.004 | 0.337 | 0.019 | 0.200 | 88 | 5.8 | 39.300 | 173 | ||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.325 | -0.034 | 0.295 | -0.025 | 0.400 | 89.4 | 9.1 | 40.200 | 209 | ||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.273 | -0.015 | 0.293 | 0.009 | 0.246 | 0.003 | -0.600 | 87.3 | 4.8 | 30.600 | 333 |
| Tyler Mahle | Reds | 0.342 | -0.005 | 0.302 | 0.037 | 0.318 | 0.017 | 0.100 | 88.1 | 9.2 | 40.000 | 295 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.301 | -0.011 | 0.339 | -0.014 | 0.290 | -0.034 | -0.500 | 89 | 6.8 | 38.000 | 266 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.346 | -0.040 | 0.323 | -0.042 | 0.381 | -0.026 | -0.300 | 87.2 | 8.6 | 36.600 | 279 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.328 | -0.049 | 0.355 | 0.000 | 0.307 | -0.004 | -0.700 | 90.2 | 0.0 | 43.800 | 32 |
Anibal Sanchez not only has the lowest aEV and 95+ mph EV on the board, but he does so by a decent margin on both counts.
Nathan Eovaldi is an example of what may happen when you pitch up in the zone, but struggle with command occasionally.
Robbie Ray needs to strike out at least one-third of the batters he faces just to be a functional pitcher with the contact he allows (not to mention the walks).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Pricing is very odd today on DraftKings (FanDuel has not yet released the Friday slate as of this writing on Thursday night). A lot of guys in a tight middle range with one guy more than $4K more than anyone else not coming off the DL today.
Value Tier One
Danny Duffy has been a higher upside arm since early June and is still fairly cheap in a nice matchup. We can probably thank those couple of bad outings for keeping the price this low.
Value Tier Two
Jameson Taillon is not in a great spot, but the slider has made him a much better pitcher. He now misses bats at an above average rate and generates ground balls on around half of contact and still only costs $7.5K.
German Marquez has a .304 xwOBA that’s a top 10 mark on tonight’s board. He’s actually a fairly formidable arm away from Coors (which he is tonight) and has been pitching really well in July. The Diamondbacks may be better than their 81 wRC+ against RHP, but he costs just $7.4K.
Value Tier Three
Nathan Eovaldi has upside at a decent price in a nice spot if he does what he wants to do. The question is if he can actually do that.
Dallas Keuchel is difficult to rank higher, not because he’s facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, but because the strikeout expectation is not much. He’s been dominating contact in July.
Anibal Sanchez may be in a slightly worse spot the numbers for the Nationals to this point suggest, but he’s priced closer to what his estimators suggest (league average) than what he’s actually done. He’s missed enough bats to be useful and continuing to manage contact even nearly as well as he has suggests there’s still some value here.
Robbie Ray has some upside and costs less than $9K, but his strikeouts will like come with walks and HRs. Hopefully, he just separates the latter two with the first enough to be useful.
Trevor Bauer (1) is in a dangerous spot, but it’s certainly not one without upside. He combines the upside of Ray without any of the flaws, but he costs much more than any other pitcher in a difficult spot.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Noah Syndergaard may not be all the way back to normal yet and he’s got the toughest matchup on the board, but at less than $10K, it still may be worth taking a chance because it’s a price the standard version of this pitcher can blow past.
Jake Arrieta doesn’t inspire confidence that he’s going to start striking out batters at even a league average rate again, but if he were to, this would be the start. At worst, he should keep the ball on the ground and seems a decent shot to give owners seven innings in this one. The cost really isn’t ideal without some strikeouts though.
Domingo German is a pitcher with some risk in a dangerous park. The results haven’t matched the underlying numbers, but the enormous SwStr% at a reasonable price in a decent matchup keeps him in consideration tonight.
Sam Gaviglio hasn’t been terrible and is cheap against one of the worst offenses in baseball, which just got even worse. You may get seven outings out of him in this matchup, but you may also not even get five.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.