Advanced Stats – Pitching: Friday, July 7th
The immediate thought when first glancing at this board as a whole is that just about every pitcher has been either an All-Star or a big time prospect (or both) at some point, even if many of them are far removed from that point now. Still, it seems difficult work to find reasons not to use many of them today because you can only consider so many arms on any given slate. The few top guys are easy, but then it’s the considerable depth on this slate that makes it so interesting. It may be even more interesting from an offensive aspect because there are only really a few arms you’d really want to attack.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | -2.8 | 4.02 | 6.17 | 54.2% | 1.03 | 4.04 | HOU | 130 | 128 | 164 | |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -1.1 | 3.27 | 6. | 48.8% | 1.09 | 3.7 | 3.57 | DET | 85 | 97 | 103 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -4.3 | 3.79 | 6.26 | 54.0% | 0.98 | 3.66 | 4.76 | NYM | 116 | 104 | 95 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -4.7 | 3.83 | 5.45 | 54.1% | 1.03 | 3.2 | TOR | 89 | 91 | 87 | |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -6.8 | 4.16 | 6. | 60.5% | 0.96 | 4.3 | 5.67 | PHI | 92 | 81 | 69 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 4.3 | 4.03 | 6.35 | 48.7% | 1.11 | 4.32 | 4.87 | ANA | 83 | 85 | 78 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.1 | 4.49 | 5.76 | 34.2% | 0.93 | 4.66 | 4.67 | SFO | 75 | 80 | 83 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.6 | 4.83 | 5.56 | 39.4% | 1.39 | 5.43 | 3.95 | COL | 79 | 83 | 61 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 6.3 | 3.66 | 5.43 | 44.3% | 0.96 | 3.9 | 3.63 | TAM | 115 | 91 | 105 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 4.7 | 5.06 | 4.92 | 46.1% | 0.96 | 4.67 | 5.42 | PIT | 85 | 90 | 77 |
| Felix Jorge | MIN | 1.7 | 6.26 | 5. | 27.8% | 1.04 | 6.26 | BAL | 88 | 91 | 59 | |
| German Marquez | COL | -3.7 | 4.55 | 5.26 | 43.4% | 1.39 | 4.38 | 5.43 | CHW | 95 | 87 | 117 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -0.8 | 3.38 | 6.24 | 46.0% | 0.98 | 3.43 | 2.45 | STL | 100 | 97 | 97 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -1.3 | 4.26 | 5.61 | 35.2% | 0.96 | 4.36 | 4.88 | BOS | 100 | 95 | 120 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 7 | 3.71 | 5.67 | 46.3% | 0.89 | 3.5 | 4.29 | OAK | 88 | 79 | 86 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.8 | 4.35 | 5.3 | 39.4% | 0.89 | 4.95 | 4.78 | LOS | 122 | 108 | 136 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 2.4 | 4.22 | 5.8 | 41.3% | 1.01 | 4.17 | 3.67 | MIL | 100 | 96 | 107 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 2.5 | 4.48 | 5.78 | 40.0% | 1.09 | 4.94 | 4.55 | CLE | 102 | 104 | 117 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -0.6 | 4.8 | 5.76 | 42.2% | 1.01 | 4.8 | 5.58 | NYY | 122 | 119 | 96 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.2 | 3.77 | 5.4 | 42.0% | 0.89 | 3.78 | 4.08 | KAN | 87 | 85 | 127 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.5 | 4.11 | 5.73 | 43.4% | 1.04 | 4.35 | 3.69 | MIN | 100 | 99 | 101 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -1.8 | 4.61 | 5.76 | 38.2% | 0.93 | 4.48 | 6.05 | MIA | 100 | 98 | 119 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.2 | 2.86 | 6.75 | 35.2% | 1.01 | 3.01 | 2.5 | ATL | 91 | 89 | 68 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.1 | 4.76 | 5.2 | 38.5% | 0.96 | 2.72 | 7.06 | SDG | 73 | 84 | 66 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | -0.6 | 4.83 | 6.12 | 0.437 | 1.01 | 5.05 | 4.48 | WAS | 119 | 112 | 99 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 2.1 | 4.4 | 6. | 0.425 | 1.11 | 4.54 | 3.82 | TEX | 101 | 97 | 120 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -13.5 | 4.03 | 5.79 | 0.457 | 0.89 | 3.83 | 4.73 | SEA | 110 | 98 | 94 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 7.5 | 4.71 | 5.34 | 0.373 | 1.13 | 5.02 | 3.89 | ARI | 111 | 106 | 71 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -4 | 4.51 | 5.27 | 0.451 | 0.96 | 4.23 | 3.29 | CHC | 100 | 88 | 94 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -6.2 | 3.57 | 6.47 | 0.472 | 1.13 | 3.78 | 3.35 | CIN | 97 | 101 | 104 |
Carlos Carrasco has been pitching well, aside from one eight run beating where he still struck out seven of 18 batters. He’s allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts otherwise with at least seven Ks in four straight. His 19.9 K-BB% is 14th among qualifiers. The concern today is his 8.7% Barrels/BBE against an offense with a 26.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, though that hasn’t turned into a lot of HRs.
Dan Straily has one of the top overall matchups tonight from a run prevention standpoint and San Francisco is a great park for him to pitch in. While they don’t strike out a lot, they don’t walk and hit for no power in that park (6.1 HR/FB, 3.8 Hard-Soft%). They are also a bottom five offense vs fly ball pitchers (88 sOPS+). That matches up well with strong contact management skills (26.5% 95+ mph EV). The confusing thing is his strikeout rate. He’s had eight or more in four starts, but five or fewer in 11 of 17 too. In just his last six starts, he’s been below a 9% SwStr rate three times and above 13% three times.
Drew Pomeranz has seen a drop in strikeout rate over the last month, exceeding five in just one of his last five starts. However, he’s allowed more than two runs in just three of 16 starts this year. His 18.2 K-BB% is a top 20 mark among those with at least 80 innings pitched and while his marginal contact management skills could come back and bite him against an offense with a 38.2 Hard% and 16.2 HR/FB at home, they’ve posed less of a danger to LHPs, including a ridiculous 27 K% against them.
Jacob deGrom is well rested after a rain out followed by an off-day. In four starts since his beating in Texas, he’s gone at least seven innings in each with a 19.7 K-BB% and 51.3 GB%. It’s interesting that Fangraphs says he’s allowed a lot of hard contact (35.6%), but his Statcast rates are more optimistic (29.6% 95+ mph EV). Interestingly, it’s been an increase in changeups that’s led to the switch to longer outings, but fewer strikeouts. A decrease (9.9%) in his last outing ended with 12 Ks. Whichever version we see here should be acceptable. The Cardinals have been hitting the ball hard recently (41.7 Hard% last seven days), but are about as neutral as an offense can get.
James Paxton had struck out 17 of 52 batters entering his last start in which he accumulated just three against the Angels. They don’t strike out a lot against LHP though and the overall results were fine. It was actually the first time he’d allowed fewer than three runs in six starts. He still has a strong 25.6 K% for the season and has managed contact well in a big park (2.5% Barrels/BBE, 27.5% 95+ mph EV). He also has one of the top matchups on the board as Oakland has been poor on the road (26.1 K%) and even worse vs LHP (25.7 K%, 9.9 HR/FB).
Jordan Montgomery has missed bats at a higher rate than anyone’s expected this year. His 13.5 SwStr% is higher than teammates Pineda and Severino. He just hasn’t been able to turn them into a ton of strikeouts. A 15.2 K-BB% for a rookie pitcher is nothing to scoff at though. Part of his charm was an ability to keep the ball in the park earlier in the season, but he’s allowed seven HRs over his last five starts. Overall contact management has been about league average though. He’s in a neutral spot at home against a high powered Milwaukee offense (18.8 HR/FB on the road, 16.6 HR/FB vs LHP, 20 HR/FB last seven days), but also one that strikes out a ton (26.1% vs LHP).
Kenta Maeda lasted just 3.2 innings in his last start, but that was performance related as he went seven shutout innings in the previous one with six strikeouts. We’ll have to treat him as a 90 pitch pitcher today with strong peripherals (17.4 K-BB%) and a 13.6 SwStr% that might even suggest better. His contact management has been excellent as well (83.8 mph aEV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE, 25.8% 95+ mph EV), which makes the high ERA difficult to explain and comforting that it’s been on the decline. He’s got a nice matchup hosting a Kansas City offense that has shown a bit more power recently (17.4 HR/FB last seven days), but loses a DH.
Max Scherzer is the top dog by far today. His 29.9 K-BB% and 16.2 SwStr% are first in the National League. He has more starts with double digit strikeouts than without this year, although Atlanta accounts for two of the seven without. He hasn’t struck out fewer than six in a start this year and fewer than six innings just once. That’s an enormous floor. The Braves are the second worst offense against fly ball pitchers (80 sOPS+).
Sean Manaea has the third highest SwStr% on the board and best among AL pitchers today. When you trail only Scherzer and deGrom, that’s pretty good. Contact management has been interesting as he’s allowed a high aEV (88.8 mph) and 40.2% 95+ mph EV, but just 4.8% Barrels/BBE, which is probably part launch angle and probably part park assisted. He’s in another favorable park tonight, though the Mariners have strong plate discipline against LHPs (9.2 K-BB%), lacking much power (10.1 HR/FB).
Zack Greinke struck out eight Rockies, but has seen his strikeout rate and more significantly, his SwStr% drop over the last month. The good news is that his slider is still getting whiffs because if that ability goes along with his reduced velocity, he could be in trouble. Despite a 35.7 Hard%, just 28% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity. The Reds are a neutral offense with some power that’s a difficult matchup in Arizona.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Carlos Martinez (.263 – 76.4% – 13.2) is one of a couple of very difficult omissions today, but the line needs to be drawn somewhere. Strikeouts (27%) are not the issue and neither are ground balls (50%). Walks (9.3%) might be. He’s had at least three of those in three of his last four, in which he hasn’t gone past six innings. The Mets don’t strike out much and have been a good road offense. The Mets are also a top seven team against ground ball pitchers (116 sOPS+). We should also mention that his BABIP is 39 points below his career rate and 34 below his team’s defense, perhaps assisting his ERA by nearly half a run. The 17.3 LD% is the lowest of his career, but he has generally run low line drive rates (19% career) without much BABIP benefit.
Cole Hamels (.229 – 69.4% – 11.6) is coming off his best start of the season (6.2 IP – 2 ER – 1 HR – 0 BB – 6 K – 23 BF), so perhaps there’s some component of health involved. He entered that game with 16 walks and strikeouts. His walk rate (8.9%) was actually higher last year (9.1%) when he was supposedly healthy. He has managed contact well (3.7% Barrels/BBE) and is in a nice spot against the Angels, even at home. He could be sneaky at a discounted cost on DraftKings, but regular readers may recall how little confidence I have in his consistency.
Jake Odorizzi (.245 – 75.2% – 17.8) is in a low strikeout spot against the Red Sox and has been incredibly reliant on a BABIP 30 points below his career rate. While he’s been an extreme fly ball pitcher, his BABIP profile has not been all that impressive.
Junior Guerra (.258 – 83.1% – 20)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kevin Gausman has struck out 22 of his last 70 batters and has not allowed a run in his last two starts. See what I mean about it being difficult to exclude pitchers today? He’s stopped throwing his slider and started throwing more splitters. A prominent reverse platoon for his career, RHBs have just a .131 wOBA over his last three starts (27.5 K-BB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%). I’m not sure what to do with him today. He’s sneaky, but he’s not all that cheap in a slightly worse than neutral spot in Minnesota.
Charlie Morton has been out since the end of May with a lat issue. He threw 10.1 innings in three rehab starts, maxing out at just 17 batters faced in his more recent at AA. A potential workload issue makes his omission a bit easier. Toronto is the fourth best offense with a 118 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers as well.
R.A. Dickey has managed contact well (85.1 mph aEV, 27% 95+ mph EV) and increased his strikeouts over the last month (24% with an 11.6 SwStr%). He’s allowed just two ERs over his last 20 IP, but is in a difficult spot in Washington tonight. Knuckleballs can be tricky in difficult weather too. This is the pitcher for whom weather and BvP data may be the most significant.
Ricky Nolasco has thrown 15.1 shutout innings, striking out 12 of 56 batters with two walks. He had allowed multiple HRs in 10 of his first 15 starts. There was really no significant change to his pitch mix over both starts. His 89.5 mph aEV and 10.0% Barrels/BBE are second worst on the board. Each of his last two starts were in pitchers’ parks. He’s facing a more neutral offense in Texas, but in a terrible park.
Felix Jorge was the 21st graded prospect (40 future value) by Fangraphs for this year. His strikeout rate had been above average throughout the low minors, but dropped to 10.7% at AA last season. He made some improvement to 17.2% in 14 starts this season and then skipped AAA to make his major league debut last week, striking out just two of 21 with a 27.8 GB%. The one thing he did do at AA was generate grounders at a 50% clip. It’s possible his velocity has ticked up from a pre-season report that had him at 88-92. He averaged 92.3 in his first start, but that could have been adrenaline too. Baltimore is up to an 18.4 K-BB% on the road, 16.5% vs RHP and 19.6% over the last week.
Derek Holland has 11 unearned runs against him, so it could be even worse. This is a rare case of it being more about the pitcher than the park at Coors. The Rockies just aren’t that good.
Tim Adleman has allowed 11 HRs over his last seven starts. A trip to Arizona is unlikely to help matters much, which is a shame because he has shown an ability to miss bats.
Matt Moore has a 3.77 ERA at home, but has allowed nine ERs over his last two home starts and has estimators above 4.5 in that park this year. He’s allowed the loudest contact on the board today and while a great park can mute some of that, there’s not a park on the planet where he can consistently get away with that.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.0% | 8.0% | Home | 19.5% | 8.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.2% | Home | 23.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 8.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.4% | Home | 22.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 12.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.7% | Road | 28.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.6% | 7.5% | Road | 13.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.3% | Home | 21.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.7% | Road | 22.0% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 4.4% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.9% | 8.1% | Road | 15.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.6% | 8.3% | Road | 24.7% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 4.7% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 14.7% | 9.3% | Home | 15.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Felix Jorge | Twins | L2 Years | 9.5% | 4.8% | Home | L14 Days | 9.5% | 4.8% | ||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.9% | Home | 17.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.1% | 6.7% | Road | 21.8% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 35.2% | 3.7% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.5% | Home | 22.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 6.5% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 24.3% | 6.7% | Home | 25.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 10.2% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.4% | Road | 18.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.6% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.9% | 7.7% | Home | 26.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 4.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.6% | 6.0% | Road | 16.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 9.1% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 10.1% | Road | 19.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 13.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.6% | 6.8% | Home | 25.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 2.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.3% | 7.1% | Road | 20.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 8.9% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.7% | 8.8% | Home | 21.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.3% | 5.6% | Home | 34.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 38.3% | 4.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.5% | 12.4% | Home | 33.8% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 20.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.9% | 7.7% | Road | 15.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.5% | 5.9% | Road | 18.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 3.6% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.5% | 7.4% | Road | 22.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 9.1% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.4% | Road | 16.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.2% | 6.4% | Road | 18.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 2.1% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 24.0% | 5.5% | Home | 23.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 6.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 17.8% | 8.8% | RH | 17.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.9% | 6.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.3% | 9.4% | RH | 22.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Mets | Road | 20.0% | 9.2% | RH | 19.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.9% | 9.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.6% | 8.1% | RH | 20.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 8.5% | LH | 21.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.4% |
| Angels | Road | 21.3% | 8.8% | LH | 19.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.0% | 6.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.7% | 6.6% | RH | 19.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 6.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.2% | 7.1% | LH | 24.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 27.5% | 5.2% |
| Rays | Home | 24.8% | 9.7% | LH | 27.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 7.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.6% | 8.4% | RH | 18.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.6% | 6.2% | RH | 22.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.4% | 4.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.0% | 5.9% | RH | 22.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.4% | 9.8% | RH | 21.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 10.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.8% | 9.1% | RH | 18.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.1% | 12.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 26.1% | 8.7% | LH | 25.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.1% | 13.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.9% | 11.0% | RH | 23.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 26.4% | 12.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.7% | 9.0% | LH | 26.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.3% | 10.0% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.4% | RH | 19.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 8.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.1% | 10.7% | RH | 22.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 26.2% | 12.2% |
| Royals | Road | 21.5% | 6.3% | RH | 20.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.4% | RH | 22.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.9% | 6.3% | LH | 20.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.0% | 7.9% |
| Braves | Road | 19.7% | 7.3% | RH | 19.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.1% |
| Padres | Road | 26.9% | 7.2% | RH | 25.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 30.7% | 5.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.3% | 11.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.3% | 9.3% | RH | 24.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.4% | 10.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.6% | 9.3% | LH | 18.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 5.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.3% | 9.1% | RH | 22.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 29.5% | 7.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 10.2% | RH | 22.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.6% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 7.5% | RH | 20.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 10.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 28.5% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 2017 | 30.7% | 14.3% | 8.0% | Home | 33.3% | 15.1% | 16.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 31.2% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 2017 | 29.4% | 14.1% | 10.3% | Home | 37.4% | 22.3% | 23.3% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 2017 | 33.7% | 13.2% | 14.9% | Home | 28.3% | 13.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 22.2% | 31.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 33.6% | 15.9% | 16.3% | 2017 | 37.6% | 18.4% | 21.7% | Road | 34.5% | 16.7% | 17.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 29.0% | 15.9% | 9.3% | 2017 | 32.7% | 19.4% | 15.3% | Road | 28.1% | 21.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 30.0% | 37.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 2017 | 36.0% | 11.6% | 22.8% | Home | 34.9% | 15.0% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 9.1% | 25.0% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 2017 | 34.2% | 11.2% | 12.8% | Road | 31.6% | 15.1% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 16.7% | 11.4% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 35.1% | 13.7% | 17.5% | 2017 | 39.2% | 16.3% | 17.9% | Road | 36.5% | 15.0% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 11.1% | 13.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.2% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 2017 | 31.5% | 13.8% | 7.5% | Road | 29.8% | 10.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 36.1% | 15.7% | 20.7% | 2017 | 31.3% | 6.3% | 11.3% | Home | 35.4% | 16.7% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 3.4% |
| Felix Jorge | Twins | L2 Years | 33.3% | 10.0% | 27.7% | 2017 | 33.3% | 10.0% | 27.7% | Home | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.0% | 27.7% | |||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 35.0% | 9.7% | 20.7% | 2017 | 36.8% | 8.5% | 22.2% | Home | 30.6% | 10.8% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 6.7% | 25.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 14.2% | Road | 34.8% | 15.5% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 32.6% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 2017 | 36.1% | 17.8% | 21.4% | Home | 35.7% | 13.4% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 21.4% | 35.3% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.2% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 2017 | 31.0% | 7.6% | 14.5% | Home | 30.5% | 8.4% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.8% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 2017 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% | Road | 33.6% | 14.6% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 13.3% | 13.9% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.6% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.4% | 12.4% | Home | 31.8% | 11.8% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 18.8% | 5.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.2% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 2017 | 38.9% | 16.4% | 24.6% | Road | 27.9% | 12.9% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 23.1% | 20.7% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.5% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 2017 | 32.9% | 20.0% | 12.2% | Road | 32.3% | 12.9% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 48.3% | 35.7% | 31.1% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 2017 | 27.3% | 13.4% | 6.2% | Home | 26.5% | 10.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 8.3% | 19.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 2017 | 32.6% | 13.0% | 14.0% | Road | 33.0% | 16.6% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | -21.4% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 33.3% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 2017 | 39.4% | 10.8% | 22.7% | Home | 33.9% | 10.3% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 14.3% | 18.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 2017 | 26.5% | 9.8% | 5.3% | Home | 25.7% | 9.9% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 35.4% | 15.8% | 23.6% | 2017 | 35.4% | 15.8% | 23.6% | Home | 44.4% | 29.4% | 35.5% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 15.4% | 18.5% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.1% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 2017 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 3.8% | Road | 30.3% | 13.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 21.1% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.1% | 14.2% | 21.0% | 2017 | 37.5% | 18.9% | 23.6% | Road | 39.1% | 15.8% | 26.9% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 0.0% | 14.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 34.0% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 2017 | 34.9% | 10.8% | 18.7% | Road | 35.2% | 15.3% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 33.9% | 16.1% | 18.6% | 2017 | 32.6% | 18.4% | 16.1% | Road | 33.3% | 12.9% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 50.0% | 22.2% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 2017 | 30.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | Road | 27.6% | 21.1% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 13.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 2017 | 35.7% | 15.0% | 13.3% | Home | 37.7% | 13.5% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 10.0% | 6.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 33.4% | 15.1% | 15.1% | RH | 33.4% | 15.7% | 16.0% | L7Days | 36.6% | 14.3% | 15.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.4% | 12.5% | 18.9% | RH | 42.0% | 12.3% | 26.7% | L7Days | 38.4% | 10.2% | 23.2% |
| Mets | Road | 37.3% | 16.2% | 19.8% | RH | 35.6% | 13.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 36.0% | 12.5% | 20.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 13.7% | 10.0% | RH | 31.2% | 14.7% | 11.2% | L7Days | 29.7% | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.5% | 13.2% | 10.2% | LH | 29.3% | 14.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 32.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% |
| Angels | Road | 32.9% | 11.3% | 13.8% | LH | 31.1% | 8.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 34.8% | 13.0% | 18.0% |
| Giants | Home | 25.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | RH | 28.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 36.3% | 9.2% | 16.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.6% | 15.3% | 11.0% | LH | 31.1% | 14.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 32.5% | 13.5% | 15.6% |
| Rays | Home | 38.2% | 16.6% | 20.2% | LH | 34.9% | 12.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 31.3% | 18.9% | 14.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 12.0% | 10.0% | RH | 30.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 36.0% | 8.3% | 17.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.4% | 12.8% | 14.6% | RH | 31.0% | 14.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 30.9% | 10.8% | 6.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.0% | 14.6% | 15.0% | RH | 30.6% | 13.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.0% | 19.2% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% | RH | 31.9% | 13.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 41.5% | 12.5% | 27.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.9% | 11.6% | 13.0% | RH | 35.2% | 10.9% | 17.3% | L7Days | 30.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.0% | 12.8% | 16.9% | LH | 31.7% | 9.9% | 14.6% | L7Days | 28.3% | 13.7% | 14.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.9% | 17.7% | 20.4% | RH | 34.5% | 15.4% | 18.9% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.6% | 12.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.9% | 18.8% | 11.9% | LH | 35.9% | 16.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 40.8% | 20.0% | 26.0% |
| Indians | Home | 30.7% | 12.2% | 13.3% | RH | 33.6% | 12.0% | 17.0% | L7Days | 36.5% | 13.8% | 14.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.9% | 19.9% | 10.0% | RH | 32.0% | 17.2% | 13.1% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% |
| Royals | Road | 32.1% | 15.3% | 12.1% | RH | 32.3% | 12.5% | 12.7% | L7Days | 29.7% | 17.4% | 7.9% |
| Twins | Home | 34.2% | 11.9% | 17.9% | RH | 33.0% | 13.4% | 16.6% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.7% | 14.3% | 9.5% | LH | 28.9% | 16.7% | 4.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 16.3% | 13.0% |
| Braves | Road | 31.6% | 11.7% | 13.3% | RH | 30.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 29.7% | 7.1% | 10.9% |
| Padres | Road | 29.4% | 14.7% | 7.4% | RH | 28.3% | 14.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.4% | 14.8% | 15.1% | RH | 31.7% | 14.5% | 14.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 9.3% | 18.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.3% | 17.1% | 16.3% | RH | 33.7% | 17.5% | 13.7% | L7Days | 33.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.0% | 12.6% | 9.5% | LH | 30.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.8% | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.2% | 16.1% | 25.7% | RH | 36.7% | 15.4% | 19.8% | L7Days | 33.1% | 12.7% | 15.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.9% | 16.0% | 13.6% | RH | 29.9% | 13.7% | 11.8% | L7Days | 32.2% | 14.9% | 14.7% |
| Reds | Road | 30.1% | 13.7% | 10.8% | RH | 29.8% | 14.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 27.3% | 13.2% | 4.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 17.5% | 7.7% | 2.27 | |||
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 26.6% | 12.5% | 2.13 | 29.7% | 14.0% | 2.12 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 27.5% | 10.9% | 2.52 | 27.7% | 10.8% | 2.56 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 25.8% | 10.2% | 2.53 | |||
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.06 | 15.4% | 6.5% | 2.37 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 12.3% | 7.1% | 1.73 | 14.6% | 5.9% | 2.47 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 24.5% | 12.1% | 2.02 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 1.78 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.7% | 8.3% | 2.37 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 2.45 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 25.8% | 10.5% | 2.46 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 2.04 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 13.8% | 7.4% | 1.86 | 10.0% | 5.8% | 1.72 |
| Felix Jorge | MIN | 9.5% | 8.2% | 1.16 | 9.5% | 8.2% | 1.16 |
| German Marquez | COL | 20.3% | 8.5% | 2.39 | 17.1% | 7.6% | 2.25 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 29.0% | 14.3% | 2.03 | 23.7% | 12.2% | 1.94 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.1% | 11.0% | 1.83 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 1.83 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 26.5% | 12.6% | 2.10 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 2.13 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 17.4% | 9.4% | 1.85 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 1.60 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.70 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 1.57 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 16.3% | 8.4% | 1.94 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 2.44 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 17.3% | 10.0% | 1.73 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 1.87 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 23.7% | 13.6% | 1.74 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 1.91 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 17.8% | 9.2% | 1.93 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 2.30 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 18.5% | 8.8% | 2.10 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.15 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.6% | 16.2% | 2.20 | 39.4% | 17.2% | 2.29 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 23.5% | 8.3% | 2.83 | 24.8% | 8.8% | 2.82 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 14.7% | 7.9% | 1.86 | 24.0% | 11.6% | 2.07 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 19.6% | 10.8% | 1.81 | 16.6% | 10.3% | 1.61 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 25.1% | 13.9% | 1.81 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 1.68 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 21.9% | 11.0% | 1.99 | 23.8% | 11.8% | 2.02 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.91 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 1.85 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 28.7% | 13.3% | 2.16 | 26.2% | 10.0% | 2.62 |
The top four Yankee starters all have a SwStr rate above 12% is something that I just noticed. Jordon Montgomery has a high chase rate (37%), but not an exceptional Z-Contact rate, which may be the reason his K% hasn’t caught up to the SwStr%. That’s just a guess though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 3.33 | 4.98 | 1.65 | 4.95 | 1.62 | 5.04 | 1.71 | 4.48 | 1.15 | |||||||
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.5 | 3.62 | 0.12 | 3.58 | 0.08 | 3.62 | 0.12 | 3.07 | -0.43 | 3.86 | 3.32 | -0.54 | 3.25 | -0.61 | 3.58 | -0.28 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.15 | 3.79 | 0.64 | 3.59 | 0.44 | 3.54 | 0.39 | 2.59 | -0.56 | 2.81 | 3.91 | 1.1 | 3.83 | 1.02 | 3.84 | 1.03 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.06 | 3.82 | -0.24 | 3.58 | -0.48 | 3.99 | -0.07 | 3.97 | -0.09 | |||||||
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.85 | 4.24 | -0.61 | 3.91 | -0.94 | 4.38 | -0.47 | 5.35 | 0.50 | 6.07 | 4.77 | -1.3 | 4.54 | -1.53 | 5.41 | -0.66 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 4.12 | 5.45 | 1.33 | 5.34 | 1.22 | 5.08 | 0.96 | 4.72 | 0.60 | 7.36 | 4.87 | -2.49 | 5.02 | -2.34 | 4.43 | -2.93 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.51 | 4.07 | 0.56 | 4.39 | 0.88 | 4 | 0.49 | 3.23 | -0.28 | 3.29 | 3.75 | 0.46 | 3.89 | 0.6 | 3.78 | 0.49 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 4.52 | 4.8 | 0.28 | 4.93 | 0.41 | 5.34 | 0.82 | 5.80 | 1.28 | 7.3 | 4.62 | -2.68 | 4.44 | -2.86 | 5.87 | -1.43 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.64 | 3.82 | 0.18 | 3.62 | -0.02 | 3.63 | -0.01 | 3.36 | -0.28 | 2.73 | 4.28 | 1.55 | 3.98 | 1.25 | 3.55 | 0.82 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 4.18 | 5.75 | 1.57 | 5.36 | 1.18 | 4.38 | 0.2 | 7.16 | 2.98 | 4.63 | 6 | 1.37 | 5.77 | 1.14 | 4.82 | 0.19 |
| Felix Jorge | MIN | 5.4 | 6.26 | 0.86 | 6.51 | 1.11 | 5.55 | 0.15 | 6.21 | 0.81 | 5.4 | 6.26 | 0.86 | 6.51 | 1.11 | 5.55 | 0.15 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.41 | 4.62 | 0.21 | 4.81 | 0.4 | 4.02 | -0.39 | 5.72 | 1.31 | 4.18 | 5.37 | 1.19 | 5.86 | 1.68 | 4.08 | -0.1 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.55 | 3.6 | 0.05 | 3.31 | -0.24 | 3.62 | 0.07 | 2.67 | -0.88 | 2.75 | 3.81 | 1.06 | 3.5 | 0.75 | 3.51 | 0.76 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.08 | 4.69 | 0.61 | 4.83 | 0.75 | 5.51 | 1.43 | 5.51 | 1.43 | 5.08 | 4.82 | -0.26 | 5.14 | 0.06 | 5.84 | 0.76 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.27 | 3.87 | 0.6 | 3.62 | 0.35 | 2.91 | -0.36 | 2.89 | -0.38 | 6.03 | 4.7 | -1.33 | 4.3 | -1.73 | 4.78 | -1.25 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 5.08 | 4.9 | -0.18 | 5.29 | 0.21 | 4.52 | -0.56 | 5.31 | 0.23 | 3.48 | 4.62 | 1.14 | 4.89 | 1.41 | 3.8 | 0.32 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.62 | 4.22 | 0.6 | 4.39 | 0.77 | 4.04 | 0.42 | 3.73 | 0.11 | 3.52 | 3.66 | 0.14 | 3.64 | 0.12 | 4.75 | 1.23 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.58 | 5.09 | -0.49 | 5.29 | -0.29 | 5.78 | 0.2 | 5.73 | 0.15 | 4.75 | 4.51 | -0.24 | 4.64 | -0.11 | 4.67 | -0.08 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 4.93 | 5.72 | 0.79 | 6.02 | 1.09 | 7.1 | 2.17 | 8.35 | 3.42 | 7.27 | 6.18 | -1.09 | 6.74 | -0.53 | 8.58 | 1.31 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 4.56 | 3.96 | -0.6 | 4.12 | -0.44 | 4.09 | -0.47 | 4.69 | 0.13 | 3.05 | 3.45 | 0.4 | 3.62 | 0.57 | 3.15 | 0.1 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.61 | 5.08 | -0.53 | 5.04 | -0.57 | 4.93 | -0.68 | 5.97 | 0.36 | 5.08 | 4.58 | -0.5 | 4.46 | -0.62 | 4.1 | -0.98 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.78 | 4.99 | -0.79 | 5.27 | -0.51 | 4.75 | -1.03 | 7.75 | 1.97 | 7.27 | 5.06 | -2.21 | 5.33 | -1.94 | 4 | -3.27 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1.94 | 2.7 | 0.76 | 3.13 | 1.19 | 2.61 | 0.67 | 1.80 | -0.14 | 0.83 | 2.27 | 1.44 | 2.66 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 0.92 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.85 | 4.76 | -0.09 | 4.74 | -0.11 | 5.04 | 0.19 | 6.01 | 1.16 | 4.55 | 4.85 | 0.3 | 4.73 | 0.18 | 4.74 | 0.19 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.44 | 5.24 | 0.8 | 5.22 | 0.78 | 5.3 | 0.86 | 6.27 | 1.83 | 3.09 | 3.69 | 0.6 | 4.05 | 0.96 | 3.15 | 0.06 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.42 | 4.45 | 0.03 | 4.57 | 0.15 | 5.39 | 0.97 | 6.12 | 1.70 | 3.21 | 4.62 | 1.41 | 4.56 | 1.35 | 4.7 | 1.49 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.75 | 4.04 | 0.29 | 3.95 | 0.2 | 3.63 | -0.12 | 3.30 | -0.45 | 3.66 | 4.31 | 0.65 | 4.17 | 0.51 | 4.18 | 0.52 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4.67 | 4.58 | -0.09 | 4.88 | 0.21 | 5.63 | 0.96 | 6.64 | 1.97 | 4.36 | 4.62 | 0.26 | 5.05 | 0.69 | 6.67 | 2.31 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.67 | 4.55 | -0.12 | 4.52 | -0.15 | 3.92 | -0.75 | 4.21 | -0.46 | 4.82 | 3.85 | -0.97 | 3.55 | -1.27 | 3.08 | -1.74 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.05 | 3.21 | 0.16 | 3.12 | 0.07 | 3.27 | 0.22 | 2.40 | -0.65 | 3 | 3.31 | 0.31 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 3.35 | 0.35 |
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.304 | 0.254 | -0.05 | 40.0% | 0.227 | 14.3% | 85.4% | 88.8 | 8.00% | 5.80% | 75 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.304 | 0.271 | -0.033 | 44.6% | 0.213 | 10.6% | 86.6% | 86.5 | 8.70% | 5.70% | 252 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.297 | 0.263 | -0.034 | 50.0% | 0.173 | 11.0% | 85.9% | 86.9 | 6.00% | 3.80% | 282 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.297 | 0.325 | 0.028 | 51.3% | 0.244 | 5.3% | 84.2% | 86.9 | 4.50% | 2.80% | 157 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.304 | 0.347 | 0.043 | 57.9% | 0.218 | 6.0% | 89.9% | 85.5 | 4.70% | 3.60% | 339 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.290 | 0.229 | -0.061 | 49.6% | 0.185 | 9.3% | 91.2% | 86.9 | 3.70% | 2.80% | 136 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.291 | 0.254 | -0.037 | 37.9% | 0.162 | 16.4% | 84.5% | 86.1 | 6.60% | 4.40% | 257 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.284 | 0.302 | 0.018 | 39.2% | 0.215 | 9.6% | 87.6% | 88 | 8.60% | 6.00% | 268 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.307 | 0.322 | 0.015 | 43.2% | 0.226 | 11.3% | 85.3% | 87.7 | 7.10% | 4.80% | 238 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.289 | 0.272 | -0.017 | 45.3% | 0.223 | 12.5% | 91.1% | 86.4 | 4.70% | 3.40% | 150 |
| Felix Jorge | MIN | 0.293 | 0.353 | 0.06 | 27.8% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 87.9% | ||||
| German Marquez | COL | 0.297 | 0.316 | 0.019 | 39.5% | 0.214 | 11.0% | 90.0% | 89.4 | 6.60% | 4.60% | 212 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.317 | 0.296 | -0.021 | 46.0% | 0.221 | 11.9% | 78.6% | 86.6 | 5.60% | 3.50% | 267 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.292 | 0.245 | -0.047 | 32.8% | 0.243 | 7.9% | 83.0% | 86.9 | 7.60% | 5.40% | 238 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.280 | 0.303 | 0.023 | 42.9% | 0.237 | 13.6% | 81.2% | 86.3 | 2.50% | 1.60% | 200 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.300 | 0.316 | 0.016 | 35.3% | 0.22 | 9.5% | 88.6% | 88.1 | 8.10% | 6.00% | 297 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.288 | 0.273 | -0.015 | 41.3% | 0.162 | 6.7% | 86.0% | 86.5 | 7.20% | 5.00% | 250 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.306 | 0.304 | -0.002 | 32.9% | 0.237 | 11.7% | 90.0% | 88.1 | 8.60% | 6.50% | 301 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.300 | 0.258 | -0.042 | 34.8% | 0.217 | 10.0% | 85.7% | 87.4 | 8.60% | 5.80% | 140 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.279 | 0.288 | 0.009 | 37.5% | 0.215 | 8.5% | 80.7% | 83.8 | 3.80% | 2.60% | 209 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.313 | 0.358 | 0.045 | 41.3% | 0.233 | 11.1% | 86.0% | 88.6 | 8.80% | 6.30% | 307 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.316 | 0.332 | 0.016 | 37.1% | 0.205 | 6.2% | 87.9% | 89.6 | 10.30% | 7.30% | 312 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.296 | 0.222 | -0.074 | 37.9% | 0.141 | 13.8% | 78.1% | 85.3 | 5.80% | 3.30% | 260 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.299 | 0.319 | 0.02 | 38.5% | 0.217 | 8.8% | 86.3% | 87.6 | 9.00% | 5.80% | 144 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.291 | 0.273 | -0.018 | 49.2% | 0.168 | 13.3% | 85.7% | 85.1 | 6.00% | 4.50% | 315 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.286 | 0.289 | 0.003 | 41.4% | 0.184 | 6.6% | 86.0% | 89.5 | 10.00% | 7.30% | 309 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.296 | 0.284 | -0.012 | 48.7% | 0.186 | 4.1% | 83.7% | 88.8 | 4.80% | 3.10% | 229 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.292 | 0.267 | -0.025 | 38.2% | 0.173 | 7.1% | 82.5% | 86.6 | 6.30% | 4.20% | 224 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.304 | 0.282 | -0.022 | 45.0% | 0.212 | 14.7% | 88.2% | 85.8 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 226 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.291 | 0.273 | -0.018 | 47.3% | 0.173 | 12.0% | 86.5% | 86.3 | 7.00% | 4.60% | 286 |
Carlos Carrasco has an average profile and a career .300 BABIP, similar to what his defense has allowed. It could push his ERA up slightly.
Dan Straily has a career .254 BABIP and an excellent profile. There’s really no issue here.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
James Paxton (2t) hasn’t been very consistent and has had recent issues with run prevention, but he’s managed contact well and is in a great spot hosting the A’s, who strike out a ton. There may be a wider range of potential outcomes than we’d like in the top value spot tonight, but a many of them should end with him putting up a lot of points.
Max Scherzer (1) costs a fortune and the Braves have been able to put bat to ball against him better than any other team this year (13 Ks, 46 BF), but that’s still a 28.2 K%. Your worst case scenario is likely 6 IP – 3 ER – 6 K. That’s the ceiling for a lot of guys.
Value Tier Two
Drew Pomeranz has had some issues striking out batters recently, but should get an assist from the Rays tonight. His run prevention has been better and more consistent than a lot of people probably realize this year. The Rays have struggled against LHP.
Jacob deGrom (2t) is in about as neutral a spot as you can get in St Louis. It seems like a lot of innings with few Ks has been the case when he relies more on his changeup, but facing a predominantly RH lineup could move him away from that, which may mean more strikeouts, although he has run into trouble a few times this year with that approach. He also costs $11K or more.
Kenta Maeda has been inconsistent from a workload standpoint more than anything else. Peripherals and contact management have both been strengths and he’s in a favorable spot at home, where he has a career 18.9 K-BB%. He’s probably a true talent $10K pitcher, so 90 to 95 pitches could cover $8K.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Carrasco has quietly just been pretty good this year. Strikeouts are up over the last month with one terrible outing marring his overall results. He is a bit expensive and could have a bit of an issue with hard contact here, but should be able to accumulate enough strikeouts to compensate.
Jordan Montgomery is in an interesting spot hosting Milwaukee. He has an elite SwStr% and the Brewers strike out a ton vs LHP. He’s also been allowing more HRs and the Brewers do a lot of that too.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Zack Greinke has seen his SwStr% drop over the last month, but had a nice bounce back with eight strikeouts last time out and there’s nothing too concerning underneath the hood yet. We want to exercise caution in a dangerous park at a high price against an offense with some power, but he still has enough upside to consider.
Dan Straily costs a bit more than $8K and is in a great run prevention spot in a park tailor suited to his skill set. Strikeouts are uncertain and will have to be a bonus. His standard five here could still get the job done.
Sean Manaea may be too risky on FanDuel at more than $8K. The Mariners have strong plate discipline against LHP and could make him work. Control hasn’t been a strong suit. His upside may be worth a shot on DraftKings for more than $2K less.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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