Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, September 30th
Do daily fantasy baseball players and writers have enough things to concern themselves with this week? Early in the day, we have to guess at pitch counts and lineups, while the fall weather has begun to cause havoc. The Cubs are so enthusiastic about finishing the season they decided to just wait and see who’s available to start Friday’s game after they finish Thursday. Let’s call him Johnny Bullpen for now — turns out it’s going to be Jake Buchanan. Same thing. The safest route to go is to lean towards those still playing for something, whether that be team or individual goal related, though that shouldn’t be a hard and strict rule.
We’ll say good-bye tomorrow with a final regular season article.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 1.1 | 4.06 | 4.64 | 0.63 | 1.02 | 3.91 | 5.82 | FLA | 96 | 91 | 75 |
| Alec Asher | PHI | 1.9 | 5.35 | 4.56 | 0.83 | 1.02 | 5.54 | 4.48 | NYM | 93 | 96 | 153 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 2.8 | 4.28 | 5.48 | 1.54 | 1.02 | 4.8 | 4.63 | WAS | 95 | 94 | 99 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 4.2 | 4.48 | 5. | 0.88 | 0.92 | 5.51 | 4.24 | ANA | 102 | 100 | 126 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | -6.1 | 5.19 | 5.71 | 1.28 | 1.07 | 6.05 | 4.45 | SDG | 78 | 81 | 111 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | -7.2 | 4.41 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.37 | 4.94 | 5.14 | COL | 101 | 82 | 47 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -5.3 | 3.74 | 6.15 | 2.17 | 0.97 | 3.58 | 4.2 | PIT | 91 | 98 | 98 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 3.3 | 4.07 | 5.84 | 1.4 | 0.99 | 3.88 | 3.28 | MIN | 99 | 98 | 78 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -3.1 | 4.26 | 5.77 | 1.86 | 1.37 | 3.61 | 5.34 | MIL | 88 | 87 | 86 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | -5.1 | 4.21 | 4.85 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 4.27 | 3.66 | ATL | 88 | 82 | 120 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 6.5 | 5.34 | 4.83 | 1 | 0.92 | 6.21 | 5.41 | HOU | 103 | 100 | 101 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | -5.9 | 4.87 | 5.59 | 1.1 | 1.07 | 5.18 | 5.45 | ARI | 98 | 87 | 64 |
| Josh Smith | CIN | 0.4 | 4.63 | 4.14 | 1.16 | 1.02 | 4.6 | 4.31 | CHC | 105 | 102 | 112 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 4.8 | 3.17 | 6.73 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 3.1 | 2.64 | LOS | 92 | 75 | 139 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.2 | 4.48 | 6.09 | 0.65 | 1.07 | 4.77 | 4.04 | BOS | 123 | 114 | 71 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | -1.4 | 3.95 | 5.19 | 1.24 | 1.07 | 4.11 | 4.03 | TEX | 107 | 98 | 68 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | -0.9 | 4.8 | 5.86 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 4.93 | 4.18 | DET | 102 | 107 | 175 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.8 | 3.23 | 5.72 | 1.53 | 1.02 | 3.18 | 2.43 | BAL | 97 | 107 | 90 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | -8.3 | 4.66 | 5.03 | 0.93 | 0.9 | 4.74 | 4.01 | SEA | 112 | 107 | 119 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2.3 | 3.05 | 5.83 | 1.29 | 0.89 | 2.83 | 2.33 | SFO | 112 | 94 | 113 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.1 | 3.75 | 6.48 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 3.7 | 3.18 | TOR | 96 | 103 | 99 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 1.3 | 3.92 | 5.83 | 2.33 | 1.02 | 4.33 | 2.68 | PHI | 76 | 83 | 93 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 5.4 | 3.07 | 3.67 | 1.04 | 3.14 | KAN | 93 | 101 | 117 | ||
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -4.3 | 3.83 | 5.62 | 1.07 | 0.9 | 3.74 | 4.01 | OAK | 97 | 91 | 77 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | -5.8 | 3.97 | 5.4 | 1.65 | 0.99 | 3.68 | 3.47 | CHW | 98 | 92 | 113 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -2.8 | 4.16 | 3.7 | 1.35 | 0.97 | 3.54 | 3.17 | STL | 100 | 106 | 99 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.9 | 4.24 | 5.82 | 1.77 | 1.04 | 4.06 | 4 | CLE | 84 | 103 | 75 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -3.2 | 4.87 | 5.38 | 1.48 | 1.02 | 4.49 | 3.69 | NYY | 101 | 93 | 80 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 1.9 | 3.22 | 5.88 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 3.69 | 3.16 | TAM | 102 | 98 | 80 |
| Johnny Bullpen | CHC | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.02 | CIN | 94 | 116 |
Carlos Martinez should be a pitcher we can trust at least from a workload standpoint. The good news is he has the fifth best ground ball rate in baseball (56.5%). He also has just a league average 12.3 K-BB% and a 10.1 BB% over his last 14 starts, but should be able to keep the ball in the park at home against a banged up offense with below average power.
Carlos Rodon struck out a season high 11 batters in Cleveland of all places through eight shutout innings. Strangely, he was coming off back to back worst starts of the season following his previous season high in strikeouts (nine) four starts back. After going at least 5.2 innings in 21 of his first 24 starts, he had two straight starts with fewer innings before his last. I used to like to call him incredibly consistent, but at least now we can say he might have a higher ceiling. The Twins strike out 24% of the time vs LHP and on the road. They have half a lineup that roasts LHP (and he still has his issues with RHBs), but the other half is toast.
Daniel Norris has struck out 30 of 95 batters in September. He’s shown strikeout potential in the minors and now that’s finally showing through in the majors with a 13.4 SwStr% this month. His 0.64 GB/FB with a 37.5 Hard% is a bit of a concern over this span though. Though the Braves are an improved offense, power is still probably something we don’t have to worry about much (7.5 HR/FB at home, 7.4 HR/FB vs LHP) and they even strike out at a league average rate vs LHP (20.8%).
Madison Bumgarner has a 4.81 ERA through his last eight starts, allowing at least three runs in six of them with eight HRs allowed. The scary thing is that he’s faced quite a few bad offenses (and a few good ones) against LHP during this stretch. However, his 23.4 K-BB% over this span has been an improvement on his season rate and he matches up with the Dodgers at home tonight. They have a 22.5 K% and 10.2 HR/FB vs LHP, but are a bit improved against southpaws since Puig returned. He’s actually faced the Dodgers twice in LA over this run and despite allowing five runs in the first start, he’s struck out 17 of 49 batters, going seven one-hit shutout innings two starts back against them.
Matt Andriese has struck out just 10 of his last 63 batters, but with at least an 8.8 SwStr% in each start and in double digits in two of three. He has a 19.0 K-BB% over 10 starts since being moved into the rotation two months ago. His fly ball profile with normal contact rates is not a big issue in Tampa Bay, but he’s in Texas tonight, where it could pose more of a problem, though the Rangers are really a neutral matchup against RHP until you bring the park into the equation. They don’t strike out a lot, but have the third lowest wRC+ on the board over the last week.
Michael Pineda has been a favorite in these pages all season and it’s not going to stop today. I guess I don’t pay enough attention to ERA as I read comments that the Yankees won this trade (after Montero’s latest suspension) even though he’s been a bust. A bust? Put this guy in a better park with a better defense and he’s an All-Star. I’m not absolving him of all blame for whatever issues he has, but there’s a lot of upside without all of it being self-inflicted. Since the beginning of June, he has a 3.66 ERA with a 22.2 K-BB% with a 32.8 Hard% just a bit higher than league average and a more acceptable 14.9 HR/FB with a .312 BABIP in a difficult park. Yup, that’s a bust. He does face a dangerous, high powered offense tonight (16.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but the Orioles will strike out a bit.
Rich Hill would be my top overall pitcher tonight if all things being equal. He has a 29.3 K-BB% in 29.1 innings since the trade. However, things are not equal. The Dodgers are trying to keep a thin pitching staff healthy going into next week. He’s thrown no more than 93 pitches in any of his five starts for them and just 77 in his last start. We have to consider a pitch count anywhere from 75-95 tonight. Perhaps they’ll want to stretch him out a bit further in his last start? Or maybe that’s wishful thinking. He’s in a great park against a low power offense that has been a bit below average and strikes out a bit more (18.5%) vs LHP.
Robert Gsellman struck out eight of 26 Phillies through seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in his best major league start last time out. While his ERA still over-states his performance so far, he generated a 75% ground ball rate and -12.5 Hard-Soft% in that game too. That’s about as dominant as a pitcher can be. He now has a 54.4 GB% with a reasonable 13.2 K-BB% through 38.2 innings. The Phillies may be a bit more prepared for him the second time around, but it’s still one of the top spots on the board (16.9 K-BB% at home, 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP).
Taijuan Walker has gone exactly 5.1 innings with three ERs in each of his last two starts after shutting out the Angels with 11 strikeouts. He has followed that up by striking out 13 of 51 batters though. Perhaps his foot injury is finally healed? There’s never been a question about this guy’s talent as the Mariners have refused to trade him for a big name several times. It would be nice to see him put it all together. He’s been a bit HR prone in a park that no longer squashes power, but the A’s don’t have much of that (10.1 HR/FB vs RHP) and strike out a bit more often away from Oakland and all it’s foul territory (19.5 K% on the road, 19% vs RHP).
Tyler Duffey is a guy with decent peripherals (13.6 K-BB%), but has allowed 24 HRs in 131 innings. We’ve tried to guess right on him because he has been an occasional source of low priced value, but has the ability to torpedo a lineup too. An encouraging aspect is that his hard contact rate is down to a more standard 30.9% this month. While he’s pitched better on the road, where he is tonight, that gap has closed a bit (not unexpected), but does have nice matchup against a below average offense vs RHP with below average power even in a reasonably friendly park.
Yu Darvish has had some run prevention issues over the last month, but has pitched into the seventh inning with 1 run or less in two of his last three starts and has struck out 26 of his last 75 batters against two of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball (A’s, Angels). This is a high upside arm, facing one of the highest strikeout offenses (24.2 K%), but in a dangerous park. The Rays do have a bit of power and he will allow the occasional HR.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Rick Porcello (.265 – 74% – 9.4) has a tough matchup tonight, though the Jays do strike out a bit. The Win is basically implied in his price with 22 of them and while we can sometimes use the Vegas line to guide us on a site like FanDuel, we know better than to expect them. His BABIP is a career low by far and 40+ points below his career rate, but consider how many terrible defenses he played in front of in Detroit. He’s producing a strong profile this year with a career high 31 IFFBs.
Marco Estrada (.233 – 75.6% – 10.2) has a great BABIP profile and a career mark really not much higher (.256). While I want to be of the mind that he’s at a sustainable point with an ERA in the mid-threes at this point, it’s been done so drastically, with a .288 BABIP over his last 14 starts, though that’s mostly due to a 22.3 LD% that would be a career high. Most of this is moot anyway with a trip to Boston on the menu. The Red Sox are still playing for home field and contend with Coors for the title of worst park adjusted matchup tonight.
Brad Peacock (.167 – 94% – 14.7) faces the Angels (16.4 K% vs RHP).
Alec Asher (.233 – 65.2% – 0.0) has a 50% unearned run rate through four starts and has not allowed a HR yet. Outrunning estimators by three and a half runs generally doesn’t sustain for very long.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tyler Glasnow has not thrown more than 87 pitches in any of his three starts and that was in his first, while being held to three innings in each of his last two. You can safely forget about him against the Cardinals on DraftKings for more than $7K, but he costs just $4.4K on FanDuel and is a top pitching prospect with some enormous strikeout rates in the minors.
A.J. Cole has gone just 6.2 innings over his last two starts, walking five of 30 batters with six strikeouts. He is at a career high for innings, but just 160, so I’m not sure whether this is performance related or planned. He’s got some upside when right and is in a nice spot at home against the Marlins tonight, but poor recent performance and uncertainty about his workload or their post-season plans for him with Joe Ross easing back into the mix push me towards a pass here.
Yordano Ventura is wildly inconsistent at best and you can see it in his last three starts with two four inning outings sandwiched around a complete game, but he may be too cheap on DraftKings ($5.5K) against an offense with the biggest home/road split in baseball. The Tribe hits for less power on the road, this is a big park and they have a 5.4 HR/FB over the last week.
Josh Smith hasn’t been terrible and that’s probably great news for the Reds, who have run a lot of terrible pitchers out there the last couple of years, but really has a track record of being not much better than average in the minors and as a 29 year-old rookie, not terrible is probably the upside. It’ll be interesting to see what the Cubs send up against him at this point though.
Chad Bettis is almost in an interesting start. The Brewers are bad against RHP (25.7 K%), but with a 15.5 HR/FB. They are predominantly RH though and he has a pronounced reverse split. Despite the strikeout potential, it’s probably still the worst spot on the board from a run prevention standpoint.
Andrew Cashner may get a bump with the ugly lineups Washington has been putting out and is just above minimum cost, but he has a 12.7 BB% and 38.7 Hard%.
Brent Suter is a low strikeout arm, who has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen since debuting with a start on August 19th and also Colorado.
Ryan Merritt is a low strikeout arm with great control. He was ranked 28th in the system by Fangraphs before the season and has done little to change that. He also hasn’t pitched in three weeks.
Johnny Bullpen is now Jake Buchanan. The Cubs have no interest in playing this weekend and did not even name a starter until last night. The likely method was all non-essential personnel throwing their names in a hat.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 7.7% | Home | 28.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Alec Asher | Phillies | L2 Years | 11.1% | 6.2% | Home | 13.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Marlins | L2 Years | 20.0% | 9.0% | Road | 16.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 15.4% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.5% | Road | 14.8% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 10.8% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 14.2% | 9.3% | Home | 6.8% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 9.3% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.4% | 7.3% | Road | 18.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 22.7% | 8.6% | Home | 21.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 14.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.9% | 9.4% | Home | 23.6% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 7.8% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.6% | Home | 18.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.4% | Road | 19.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 10.3% | 5.2% | Home | 9.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 7.5% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 16.7% | 10.4% | Road | 14.6% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 13.7% |
| Josh Smith | Reds | L2 Years | 19.2% | 11.4% | Home | 21.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 11.4% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.4% | 5.3% | Home | 29.0% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 2.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.5% | 8.3% | Road | 20.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 9.6% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 5.4% | Road | 18.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 2.3% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 16.4% | 7.7% | Home | 15.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 7.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.5% | 5.1% | Home | 26.0% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 40.9% | 9.1% |
| Raul Alcantara | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.6% | 3.4% | Road | 13.6% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 2.1% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 30.8% | 7.1% | Road | 33.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 4.9% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.8% | 4.3% | Home | 21.2% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 1.7% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 22.0% | 8.8% | Road | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Ryan Merritt | Indians | L2 Years | 10.0% | 0.0% | Road | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.7% | Home | 24.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 11.8% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.2% | Road | 21.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 23.3% | 10.5% | Road | 27.0% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 9.1% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 19.7% | 9.0% | Home | 21.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 5.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 15.7% | 9.7% | Road | 15.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.6% | 7.7% | Home | 27.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 10.0% |
| Johnny Bullpen | Cubs | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 7.1% | RH | 19.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.8% |
| Mets | Road | 21.7% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 13.9% | 13.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 8.9% | RH | 19.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Home | 16.2% | 7.7% | RH | 16.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 6.9% | RH | 24.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.7% | 9.1% | LH | 23.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 32.6% | 3.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.1% | 8.9% | RH | 20.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.5% |
| Twins | Road | 24.2% | 8.6% | LH | 24.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.1% | 8.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.7% | 9.7% | RH | 25.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.3% | 6.5% |
| Braves | Home | 19.4% | 8.3% | LH | 20.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.5% |
| Astros | Road | 22.4% | 8.9% | RH | 23.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.7% | 7.3% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.8% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.6% | 9.6% | RH | 21.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 11.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.3% | 8.6% | LH | 22.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.6% | 8.7% | RH | 18.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 11.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.7% | 8.1% | RH | 19.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.6% | 5.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.2% | 7.9% | RH | 20.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.1% | 7.1% | RH | 21.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.1% | 9.0% | RH | 20.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.6% |
| Giants | Home | 16.7% | 9.8% | LH | 18.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 12.2% | 9.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 9.7% | RH | 22.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 17.8% | 13.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.1% | 7.2% | RH | 23.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.5% |
| Royals | Home | 18.6% | 6.5% | LH | 20.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.5% | 7.7% | RH | 19.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.3% | 7.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.0% | 8.4% | RH | 21.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.8% |
| Indians | Road | 21.7% | 7.3% | RH | 20.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.0% | 10.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 20.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.7% |
| Rays | Road | 23.3% | 7.3% | RH | 24.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 28.5% | 5.4% |
| Reds | Home | 21.8% | 8.3% | 20.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 5.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.3% | 11.8% | 6.0% | 2016 | 24.2% | 12.5% | 5.0% | Home | 28.6% | 14.8% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 10.0% | 21.1% |
| Alec Asher | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 2016 | 26.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% | Home | 29.3% | 16.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.0% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 2016 | 34.6% | 13.8% | 21.9% | Road | 30.2% | 13.9% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 27.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 2016 | 26.8% | 14.7% | 15.5% | Road | 31.7% | 15.8% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.2% | 4.2% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.2% | 18.1% | 26.5% | 2016 | 37.2% | 18.1% | 26.5% | Home | 36.8% | 13.8% | 29.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 18.2% | 10.0% |
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 35.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2016 | 35.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | Road | 28.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 57.1% | 0.0% | 42.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 2016 | 29.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | Home | 27.1% | 13.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 48.4% | 16.7% | 38.7% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.1% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 2016 | 27.9% | 14.1% | 11.5% | Home | 26.8% | 12.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 27.3% | 3.2% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.9% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 2016 | 30.4% | 13.9% | 12.9% | Home | 31.5% | 12.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 10.0% | 16.2% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 2016 | 32.8% | 12.2% | 20.8% | Road | 28.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 7.7% | 34.4% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 40.2% | 14.6% | 22.9% | 2016 | 40.2% | 14.6% | 22.9% | Home | 38.1% | 12.5% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 15.8% | 15.4% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 2016 | 32.9% | 12.8% | 19.0% | Road | 34.7% | 12.5% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 25.0% | 25.7% |
| Josh Smith | Reds | L2 Years | 30.0% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 2016 | 29.2% | 15.9% | 10.1% | Home | 24.6% | 18.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 10.0% | 17.4% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 2016 | 31.7% | 11.2% | 12.6% | Home | 27.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 23.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 2016 | 31.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | Road | 30.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 4.8% | -3.1% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 33.6% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 2016 | 34.0% | 10.8% | 18.2% | Road | 36.1% | 10.6% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 0.0% | 26.5% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 2016 | 37.1% | 12.6% | 19.7% | Home | 34.2% | 8.9% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.3% | 15.6% | 13.7% | 2016 | 32.4% | 16.6% | 15.1% | Home | 31.5% | 20.7% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Raul Alcantara | Athletics | L2 Years | 43.5% | 17.2% | 27.6% | 2016 | 43.5% | 17.2% | 27.6% | Road | 36.8% | 11.1% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2016 | 28.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | Road | 24.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 45.8% | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 2016 | 30.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | Home | 32.9% | 9.1% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 27.5% | 4.2% | 11.0% | 2016 | 27.5% | 4.2% | 11.0% | Road | 34.2% | 8.3% | 24.4% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Merritt | Indians | L2 Years | 11.1% | 0.0% | -11.1% | 2016 | 11.1% | 0.0% | -11.1% | Road | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.5% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2016 | 28.5% | 17.7% | 7.6% | Home | 29.4% | 16.0% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | -3.1% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 31.4% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 2016 | 33.3% | 19.4% | 16.1% | Road | 26.9% | 13.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 23.6% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 2016 | 23.6% | 5.9% | 1.8% | Road | 34.8% | 14.3% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 2016 | 30.6% | 13.3% | 13.5% | Home | 30.9% | 8.7% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 14.3% | 13.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2016 | 27.6% | 12.1% | 9.4% | Road | 25.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 7.1% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 2016 | 29.3% | 12.6% | 6.3% | Home | 34.8% | 14.3% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 16.7% | 21.4% |
| Johnny Bullpen | Cubs | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 29.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | RH | 29.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 32.6% | 7.7% | 16.7% |
| Mets | Road | 33.0% | 13.8% | 16.0% | RH | 33.7% | 13.4% | 15.3% | L7Days | 30.2% | 11.8% | 7.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.8% | 12.8% | 13.4% | RH | 32.6% | 12.0% | 14.6% | L7Days | 31.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% |
| Angels | Home | 29.6% | 11.2% | 10.8% | RH | 30.5% | 10.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.7% | 2.4% |
| Padres | Road | 30.7% | 14.2% | 11.5% | RH | 30.1% | 12.8% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.3% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.2% | 16.1% | 18.8% | LH | 32.5% | 12.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 31.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 31.2% | 11.9% | 11.4% | RH | 30.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 12.5% | 5.1% |
| Twins | Road | 30.7% | 13.5% | 10.9% | LH | 31.3% | 13.4% | 12.5% | L7Days | 29.7% | 12.0% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.7% | 14.7% | 10.6% | RH | 32.3% | 15.5% | 13.0% | L7Days | 27.8% | 14.6% | 5.3% |
| Braves | Home | 31.1% | 7.5% | 13.7% | LH | 29.3% | 7.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 29.3% | 13.2% | 10.6% |
| Astros | Road | 33.5% | 14.1% | 16.3% | RH | 32.7% | 14.2% | 15.1% | L7Days | 29.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.1% | 17.6% | 20.0% | RH | 32.6% | 12.9% | 15.2% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.0% | 9.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.6% | 14.4% | 13.8% | RH | 31.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | L7Days | 29.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.1% | 12.7% | 17.9% | LH | 31.1% | 10.2% | 13.9% | L7Days | 32.3% | 16.4% | 14.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.7% | 13.1% | 14.8% | RH | 34.3% | 13.3% | 15.3% | L7Days | 26.6% | 9.3% | 4.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 31.3% | 13.8% | 12.0% | RH | 31.0% | 14.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 33.5% | 11.5% | 14.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.5% | 13.9% | 15.4% | RH | 32.2% | 14.0% | 15.2% | L7Days | 29.5% | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.3% | 14.6% | 13.0% | RH | 33.1% | 16.9% | 13.0% | L7Days | 37.9% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.4% | 15.9% | 12.6% | RH | 31.2% | 14.6% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 6.9% |
| Giants | Home | 26.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | LH | 28.4% | 9.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 33.2% | 14.9% | 13.1% | RH | 33.4% | 15.1% | 14.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 25.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | RH | 28.8% | 13.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.6% | 5.1% |
| Royals | Home | 31.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | LH | 31.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% | L7Days | 35.5% | 11.7% | 21.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.9% | 12.7% | 11.1% | RH | 29.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 35.6% | 7.0% | 22.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.0% | 12.3% | 8.4% | RH | 29.1% | 11.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 30.0% | 15.4% | 10.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.7% | 13.3% | 16.8% | RH | 34.4% | 15.0% | 17.5% | L7Days | 31.4% | 11.9% | 18.3% |
| Indians | Road | 30.6% | 11.0% | 11.3% | RH | 31.4% | 12.8% | 13.8% | L7Days | 30.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.7% | 14.7% | 10.8% | RH | 29.5% | 13.5% | 12.9% | L7Days | 31.1% | 10.9% | 14.1% |
| Rays | Road | 31.8% | 14.6% | 12.9% | RH | 32.5% | 14.4% | 13.0% | L7Days | 31.0% | 6.3% | 13.1% |
| Reds | Home | 30.7% | 12.9% | 13.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 14.5% | 3.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 24.3% | 10.2% | 2.38 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 2.58 |
| Alec Asher | PHI | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.92 | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.92 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 19.2% | 7.3% | 2.63 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 3.71 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.60 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 2.60 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 14.2% | 7.8% | 1.82 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 1.89 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 17.4% | 7.7% | 2.26 | 24.1% | 9.4% | 2.56 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 1.99 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.26 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 2.10 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 17.0% | 8.7% | 1.95 | 17.3% | 7.2% | 2.40 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 22.9% | 10.2% | 2.25 | 28.6% | 13.4% | 2.13 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 10.3% | 6.3% | 1.63 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 1.86 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 16.1% | 8.8% | 1.83 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 2.44 |
| Josh Smith | CIN | 19.5% | 10.9% | 1.79 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.15 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 27.9% | 11.5% | 2.43 | 30.7% | 12.4% | 2.48 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 23.0% | 11.0% | 2.09 | 26.3% | 12.3% | 2.14 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.97 | 19.1% | 11.4% | 1.68 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 17.3% | 8.9% | 1.94 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 2.08 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 27.5% | 14.2% | 1.94 | 33.7% | 15.2% | 2.22 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | 14.6% | 6.4% | 2.28 | 14.6% | 6.4% | 2.28 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 30.0% | 10.6% | 2.83 | 38.6% | 11.2% | 3.45 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.2% | 8.1% | 2.62 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.30 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 22.0% | 8.6% | 2.56 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 3.05 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 10.0% | 4.6% | 2.17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 21.1% | 10.2% | 2.07 | 24.4% | 12.2% | 2.00 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.22 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 2.00 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.16 | 27.7% | 12.3% | 2.25 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 17.2% | 9.0% | 1.91 | 14.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.51 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.00 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 30.6% | 12.3% | 2.49 | 30.9% | 12.5% | 2.47 |
| Johnny Bullpen | CHC |
Rich Hill should probably not be expected to sustain a strikeout rate above 30% over a full season, but something in the high 20’s is certainly viable.
Robert Gsellman at least had an 11.2 SwStr% in his last start.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 5.09 | 4.32 | -0.77 | 5.06 | -0.03 | 4.98 | -0.11 | 5.16 | 4.07 | -1.09 | 4.7 | -0.46 | 4.55 | -0.61 |
| Alec Asher | PHI | 1.66 | 5.38 | 3.72 | 5.31 | 3.65 | 3.14 | 1.48 | 1.66 | 5.39 | 3.73 | 5.31 | 3.65 | 3.14 | 1.48 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 5.13 | 4.68 | -0.45 | 4.57 | -0.56 | 4.69 | -0.44 | 7.17 | 4.83 | -2.34 | 4.15 | -3.02 | 4.27 | -2.9 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 2.67 | 4.33 | 1.66 | 4.66 | 1.99 | 4.96 | 2.29 | 2.25 | 4.47 | 2.22 | 4.6 | 2.35 | 4.54 | 2.29 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 5.26 | 5.19 | -0.07 | 4.97 | -0.29 | 5.71 | 0.45 | 6.17 | 4.41 | -1.76 | 4.36 | -1.81 | 5.5 | -0.67 |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 2.16 | 4.41 | 2.25 | 4.79 | 2.63 | 4.34 | 2.18 | 0 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.99 | 3.99 | 2.18 | 2.18 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.15 | 4.04 | 0.89 | 3.87 | 0.72 | 3.7 | 0.55 | 3.6 | 4.18 | 0.58 | 4.11 | 0.51 | 4.51 | 0.91 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.08 | 3.97 | -0.11 | 3.95 | -0.13 | 4.11 | 0.03 | 4.8 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 3.75 | -1.05 | 4.24 | -0.56 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.92 | 4.37 | -0.55 | 4.12 | -0.8 | 4.24 | -0.68 | 3.46 | 4.26 | 0.8 | 4.05 | 0.59 | 3.07 | -0.39 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 3.59 | 4.01 | 0.42 | 4.07 | 0.48 | 3.96 | 0.37 | 3.54 | 3.5 | -0.04 | 3.77 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.46 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 6.95 | 5.33 | -1.62 | 5.65 | -1.3 | 5.96 | -0.99 | 6.53 | 5.47 | -1.06 | 5.89 | -0.64 | 6.77 | 0.24 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 5.77 | 5.28 | -0.49 | 5.26 | -0.51 | 5.24 | -0.53 | 5.88 | 4.75 | -1.13 | 4.6 | -1.28 | 4.8 | -1.08 |
| Josh Smith | CIN | 4.77 | 4.41 | -0.36 | 4.78 | 0.01 | 5.23 | 0.46 | 3.18 | 4.59 | 1.41 | 4.86 | 1.68 | 4.38 | 1.2 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.71 | 3.33 | 0.62 | 3.5 | 0.79 | 3.27 | 0.56 | 3.98 | 2.76 | -1.22 | 3.3 | -0.68 | 3.39 | -0.59 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.53 | 4.34 | 0.81 | 4.64 | 1.11 | 4.18 | 0.65 | 4.39 | 4.47 | 0.08 | 4.93 | 0.54 | 3.33 | -1.06 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 4.34 | 3.91 | -0.43 | 3.97 | -0.37 | 3.67 | -0.67 | 5.06 | 3.99 | -1.07 | 4.03 | -1.03 | 3.05 | -2.01 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 4.86 | 4.68 | -0.18 | 4.69 | -0.17 | 4.64 | -0.22 | 4.5 | 4.35 | -0.15 | 3.6 | -0.9 | 3.28 | -1.22 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 4.68 | 3.36 | -1.32 | 3.24 | -1.44 | 3.66 | -1.02 | 1.9 | 3.12 | 1.22 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 3.31 | 1.41 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | 5.75 | 4.66 | -1.09 | 5.28 | -0.47 | 6.09 | 0.34 | 5.75 | 4.66 | -1.09 | 5.28 | -0.47 | 6.09 | 0.34 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2.05 | 3.25 | 1.2 | 3.34 | 1.29 | 2.4 | 0.35 | 1.93 | 2.22 | 0.29 | 2.35 | 0.42 | 2.03 | 0.1 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.11 | 3.76 | 0.65 | 3.86 | 0.75 | 3.37 | 0.26 | 2.41 | 3.61 | 1.2 | 3.91 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.09 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 2.56 | 3.92 | 1.36 | 3.53 | 0.97 | 2.83 | 0.27 | 2.17 | 3.56 | 1.39 | 3.17 | 1 | 2.69 | 0.52 |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 1.5 | 3.07 | 1.57 | 3.31 | 1.81 | 2.48 | 0.98 | 13.5 | 3.65 | -9.85 | 3.14 | -10.36 | 3.14 | -10.36 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.35 | 4.01 | -0.34 | 4.19 | -0.16 | 4.9 | 0.55 | 4.97 | 3.5 | -1.47 | 3.64 | -1.33 | 5.19 | 0.22 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 6.18 | 4.03 | -2.15 | 3.89 | -2.29 | 4.69 | -1.49 | 5.74 | 3.63 | -2.11 | 3.64 | -2.1 | 3.59 | -2.15 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 4.91 | 4.16 | -0.75 | 4.31 | -0.6 | 3.47 | -1.44 | 4.5 | 3.32 | -1.18 | 3.08 | -1.42 | 1.74 | -2.76 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.4 | 4.74 | 0.34 | 4.61 | 0.21 | 4.66 | 0.26 | 4.75 | 5.15 | 0.4 | 5.05 | 0.3 | 4.2 | -0.55 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 5.63 | 5.29 | -0.34 | 5.2 | -0.43 | 5.09 | -0.54 | 5.31 | 4.01 | -1.3 | 3.77 | -1.54 | 4.77 | -0.54 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.53 | 3.22 | -0.31 | 3.33 | -0.2 | 3.3 | -0.23 | 5.16 | 3.31 | -1.85 | 3.37 | -1.79 | 3.54 | -1.62 |
| Johnny Bullpen | CHC |
Carlos Martinez has maintained a nearly 79% strand rate from last season despite a drop in strikeout rate with a 33 point drop in BABIP to .285 despite a poor defense to maintain an ERA just above three even though his estimators increased half a run.
Madison Bumgarner has a .262 BABIP that’s not the lowest of his career, but over 20 points lower than his career rate and a bit worse than what his defense normally allows. His profile is decent with more fly balls than grounders for the first time in his career this year. He still has a career high 79.7 LOB% (full season) despite a 67% strand rate over his last eight starts.
Michael Pineda still has a .339 BABIP and 70.6 LOB% with a 16.6 HR/FB. The start was so bad that expected regression was not able to save his season numbers, but it has occurred if you look at the numbers over the last two-thirds of the season.
Rich Hill has just a 4.4 HR/FB. He’s allowed just four all season, but as we’ve been expecting major regression all season, he happens to have allowed one in each of his last two starts. One was in Arizona, which should surprise nobody. One was against these Giants at home in his last start. The good news is that there’s a great chance he keeps it in the park tonight.
Robert Gsellman has an 80.3 LOB% and has allowed just one HR. He hasn’t been bad, but he’s not nearly this good. He’s Jacob deGrom in hair only, although deGrom wasn’t supposed to be nearly this good either.
Tyler Duffey has a .333 BABIP behind a terrible defense and a 19.4 HR/FB. The good news is that hard contact is down to league average this month, while it’s not even all that hard this season (33.3%) and his 60.8 LOB% is ridiculous. Pitchers rarely ever run estimators two runs below their ERA.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.287 | 0.261 | -0.026 | 0.121 | 16.1% | 87.5% |
| Alec Asher | PHI | 0.303 | 0.233 | -0.07 | 0.243 | 3.6% | 92.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 0.303 | 0.313 | 0.01 | 0.199 | 4.9% | 91.4% |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.308 | 0.167 | -0.141 | 0.099 | 2.9% | 89.6% |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 0.320 | 0.297 | -0.023 | 0.223 | 2.8% | 89.7% |
| Brent Suter | MIL | 0.299 | 0.265 | -0.034 | 0.184 | 30.0% | 89.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.304 | 0.285 | -0.019 | 0.176 | 4.4% | 87.9% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.299 | 0.330 | 0.031 | 0.207 | 9.8% | 86.6% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.317 | 0.309 | -0.008 | 0.22 | 4.6% | 88.7% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.300 | 0.333 | 0.033 | 0.229 | 5.4% | 85.6% |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 0.301 | 0.367 | 0.066 | 0.232 | 8.3% | 88.6% |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 0.296 | 0.308 | 0.012 | 0.213 | 8.5% | 87.5% |
| Josh Smith | CIN | 0.290 | 0.278 | -0.012 | 0.174 | 6.3% | 81.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.288 | 0.262 | -0.026 | 0.19 | 11.2% | 84.3% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.284 | 0.233 | -0.051 | 0.185 | 16.4% | 82.2% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.297 | 0.303 | 0.006 | 0.191 | 10.8% | 89.0% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.293 | 0.276 | -0.017 | 0.215 | 6.6% | 90.8% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.293 | 0.339 | 0.046 | 0.22 | 3.3% | 86.0% |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | 0.300 | 0.297 | -0.003 | 0.188 | 10.3% | 91.5% |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.285 | 0.270 | -0.015 | 0.177 | 13.3% | 78.8% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.293 | 0.265 | -0.028 | 0.188 | 13.2% | 88.3% |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.308 | 0.315 | 0.007 | 0.223 | 12.5% | 90.5% |
| Ryan Merritt | CLE | 0.290 | 0.167 | -0.123 | 0.222 | 0.0% | 90.9% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.292 | 0.275 | -0.017 | 0.175 | 12.2% | 85.8% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.319 | 0.333 | 0.014 | 0.227 | 10.5% | 89.5% |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.306 | 0.370 | 0.064 | 0.245 | 11.8% | 84.1% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.299 | 0.293 | -0.006 | 0.187 | 9.8% | 89.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.299 | 0.312 | 0.013 | 0.196 | 6.8% | 90.7% |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.293 | 0.291 | -0.002 | 0.192 | 9.5% | 82.1% |
| Johnny Bullpen | CHC | 0.255 |
Carlos Rodon has a high BABIP with a standard profile and reasonable defense. Nothing seems off here. He had a slightly lower BABIP with a higher line drive rate and fewer popups last year.
Daniel Norris is a fly ball pitcher, but allows a lot of hard contact (especially this month) and does not induce a lot of popups. Oddly, his lowest BABIP (.291) coincides with his highest hard hit rate (37.5%) in September.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
There is a fairly impressive and potentially pitcher value friendly slate if we can count on all of these arms to assume normal workloads. Unfortunately, that’s not the case, but we still may be able to do well here.
Value Tier One
Madison Bumgarner (1) has struggled from a run prevention standpoint for nearly two months now, but his peripherals are actually improved and he’s in a great spot against the Dodgers at home, an offense he just one hit with 10 strikeouts over seven innings two starts back. Recent troubles have his DraftKings cost below $12K now too.
Michael Pineda (2) is in a dangerous spot against a powerful offense. Hopefully, that will scare players off him because we still love the upside and recognize the solid pitcher with elite peripherals that he’s been since June and still for less than $10K.
Value Tier Two
Rich Hill (4) would top this list if you told me he has no workload limits. He struck out seven of 20 Giants in his last start and are the only team he’s faced twice since the trade (11 IP – 1 ER) and now gets them a third time. We don’t yet know what limitations will be imposed. If it’s more lenient, he can still cover this price tag. If we hear something much below 85-90, we should probably drop him a tier or two.
Robert Gsellman dominated the Phillies in his last start. We shouldn’t expect that again, but he’s been decent, keeps the ball on the ground and costs less than $7K.
Yu Darvish (3) has had some strand rate issues this month (64.5%), but remains dominant from a strikeout perspective and is projected for the highest rate on the board against the Rays tonight. The highly positive run environment does pose a bit of a concern with the highest price tag on the board though, nearing $13K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Three
Tyler Duffey is a high risk, moderate upside pitcher, who, even though I hate to use the word without definitive proof, appears to have been a bit unlucky this season. He costs less than $6K in a favorable matchup.
Taijuan Walker has been pitching better than his ERA suggests over the last month. He’s been missing bats at a much higher rate and may be in the top park adjusted spot on the board at home against the A’s for a reasonable cost, although his FanDuel price ($7.5K) is obviously much more appealing.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Rodon now exceeds $10K on DraftKings, where I probably would hesitate to use him. We now have to consider him a little more unstable, but possibly with a higher ceiling as well after how he’s pitched the last month. He does have his issues with RHBs though and the Twins can stack four or five hitters who bomb LHP. The remainder of the lineup are outs though.
Matt Andriese is not in a great spot, but not a terrible one either against the Rangers, though his fly ball profile might be a bit more concerning in this park, though it hasn’t been that power friendly the last few years. He’s running a 19.0 K-BB% over 10 starts, mark that would tie him with Price for 11th best in baseball over a full season and costs less than $6.5K.
Carlos Martinez has been flawed this season with an inconsistent strikeout rate, but is in a nice spot at home in a game the Cardinals need, so we should have no workload concerns and expect him to at least keep the ball in the park.
Daniel Norris has allowed a ton of hard contact in September, but is striking out so many batters that we might be willing to look it in a decent spot tonight. The numbers are still a bit skeptical, but I’m doing a bit of an over-ride here because they don’t consider his impressive minor league track record. Hopefully, this is him breaking out. The Tigers could use that for their post-season push.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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