Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, April 22nd

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-04-22 17:52:25

Saturday’s are supposed to be easy. It’s the weekend! But we are doing some work today because this is some collection. Some liberties have been taken for teams who haven’t named starters (there are three as of Friday night). Let’s hope they’re correct, but only one of them (deGrom) appears to be of use and he’s a day-gamer. Two more are making not their major league debuts, but the initial major league starts of their career and I’ll have to admit to never having heard of either one of them before. As has been the pattern this year, all pitchers are listed with notes on the night slate.

We’re now up to date on all stats except for team defense, which I’m confident we’ll see next week.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher	Team	Team Def	SIERA L2Yrs	IP/GS L2Yrs	GB% L2Yrs	Park Run	Hm/Rd xFIP	SIERA L14	Opp	Opp Hm/Rd	Opp L/R wRC+	Opp L7 wRC+
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	-5.8	6.39	3.1	37.5%	1.04	5.01	6.21	DET	97	110	85
Antonio Senzatela	COL	-3.1	3.72	6.33	45.5%	1.39	3.27	3.77	SFO	91	85	47
Ariel Miranda	SEA	-4.3	4.55	5.55	34.4%	0.93	6.12	3.44	OAK	130	94	145
Blake Snell	TAM	-1.4	4.66	4.78	37.5%	0.96	4.63	4.9	HOU	132	98	126
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	5.4	3.1	6.13	49.4%	0.98	3.05	3.74	CHW	86	63	39
Casey Lawrence	TOR	2.2	9.53		66.7%	0.91	9.2	9.53	ANA	140	98	62
Charlie Morton	HOU	4.2	3.88	5.4	56.8%	0.96	3.44	3.86	TAM	137	114	122
Chase Anderson	MIL	-7.2	4.46	5.33	39.0%	1.02	4.7	3.24	STL	92	86	89
Cody Reed	CIN	0.4	4.15	4.72	53.8%	1.02	3.95	0.37	CHC	107	129	119
Dan Straily	FLA	2.8	4.71	5.73	33.4%	0.91	4.93	4.83	SDG	94	90	77
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	1.1	3.86	5.64	49.9%	0.91	4.16	4.64	NYM	76	133	65
Ian Kennedy	KAN	4.9	3.95	5.85	35.5%	1.11	4.6	3.32	TEX	92	98	45
Jacob deGrom	NYM	1.3	3.23	6.26	45.8%	0.91	3.23	2.4	WAS	112	108	99
Jaime Garcia	ATL	-0.9	3.82	5.89	57.1%	0.96	4.33	4.84	PHI	116	91	87
Jake Arrieta	CHC	9.1	3.31	6.63	54.1%	1.02	3.84	2.7	CIN	80	92	82
Jameson Taillon	PIT	-2.8	3.61	5.9	52.9%	0.97	3.44	3.73	NYY	108	132	129
Jayson Aquino	BAL	-3.2	2.32		0.0%	1.02	5.14		BOS	82	85	95
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	1.9	3.94	6.09	40.0%	0.96	4.15	4.27	ATL	89	92	87
Jered Weaver	SDG	-5.9	5.13	5.92	31.9%	0.91	5.27	3.01	FLA	94	101	103
Jharel Cotton	OAK	-8.3	4.32	5.75	35.8%	0.93	4.66	5.2	SEA	61	107	123
Kenta Maeda	LOS	2.3	3.69	5.41	42.9%	1.13	3.54	3.34	ARI	137	110	87
Lance Lynn	STL	-5.3	4.1	5.66	44.7%	1.02	6.24	4.61	MIL	94	98	121
Matt Boyd	DET	-5.1	4.57	4.92	36.1%	1.04	4.59	4.24	MIN	98	93	90
Matt Moore	SFO	4.8	4.45	5.84	39.1%	1.39	4.89	4.1	COL	66	86	83
Michael Pineda	NYY	0.8	3.22	5.7	0.467	0.97	3.1	2.07	PIT	99	88	97
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	3.3	4.86	5.34	0.511	0.98	4.79		CLE	109	126	149
Nick Martinez	TEX	1.9	5.09	5.43	0.456	1.11	5.71		KAN	69	81	62
Robbie Ray	ARI	-6.1	3.77	5.52	0.445	1.13	3.54	3.79	LOS	85	82	100
Steven Wright	BOS	4.1	4.53	6.19	0.43	1.02	4.19	4.64	BAL	79	111	88
Tyler Skaggs	ANA	6.5	4.2	5.15	0.393	0.91	4	3.24	TOR	73	103	92

Carlos Carrasco has, by far, the top matchup on the board (White Sox 19.3 K-BB%, 24.9 Hard% vs RHP). Let’s get that out of the way right now. There’d been some injury concern for him to start the season, but he’s come out of the gate strong. He did walk five last time out, but that appears to be an isolated incident (we hope). However, his velocity was down a bit in each of his last two starts, in which he manufactured just 8.4% and 7.8% swinging strike rates. Essentially, a .188 BABIP in each of those starts saved his can. He’s allowed a HR in each start, while his strong GB rate is gone (41.3% would be the lowest of his career by a touchdown). Though he is generating weaker contact that normal (2.2 Hard-Soft%), more contact in the air has resulted in the highest barrel rate per BBE (11.6%), not only on the slate, but the entire board all day.

Chase Anderson has looked good this season though his ERA sits well below his estimators (.250 BABIP, 84.3 LOB%, 5.3 HR/FB). That said, he’s had at least a 9.1 SwStr% in all three starts with every pitch except his signature change-up grading out positively via Pitchf/x this year. I’m not sure I’m seeing much of a difference long term, but the Cardinals are struggling, with the pitcher doing most of their offensive damage last night.

Ian Kennedy has the third best strikeout rate on the night slate. While his BABIP is deflated, his batted ball profile is pretty strong. Somehow, he’s allowed just a single HR so far, despite a 42.6 Hard%, though Statcast doesn’t view his generated contact as poorly. He’s allowed at least 25 HRs in five of seven full seasons, so we know they’re coming, but his strikeout rate has been above average every year too. There’s upside in this arm. After walking five in his first start, he’s settled down to a total of four over his last two. Texas may seem like a dangerous place for a pitcher of his skill set to pitch, but despite a 21.1 HF/FB at home so far, the Rangers are just an average offense and quite cold at the moment.

Robbie Ray looked like he was in trouble in his last start in Dodger Stadium before going on a strikeout spree and finishing with 10 through 25 batters. He’s walked at least three in every start and continues to display hard contact issues (47.5%), which are only exacerbated in Arizona. Fortunately, he’s kept that contact from being at optimal launch angles, explaining his low rate of barrels met so far. Despite this rematch taking place in an extremely high run scoring environment, we can’t ignore his upside on this slate.

Tyler Skaggs has only produced one quality start, but has generated a double digit SwStr% in all three despite a significant dip in velocity. In my experience, you don’t look at velocity first, but only in a supporting role if there are other underlying issues, which there don’t appear to be here. His 25.0 K% does not appear artificial and he’s actually induced more weak contact than hard (-4.1 Hard-Soft%), though a 28.6 GB% has led to three HRs already. The Blue Jays are still probably an above average offense talent-wise, even without Encarnacion and Donaldson at this point, though it’s probably not an offense to fear in a pitcher’s park. They’ve struck out 26.6% of the time vs LHP so far.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)

Jerad Eickhoff (.250 – 84.3% – 10.3) is an average arm in a decent spot because though Philadelphia is a ban box, it doesn’t play as a high run scoring environment overall. I’m just not sure he gives you much of anything beyond an $8K price tag. He’s most likely okay here, but has not struck out more than eight in a game in over a year.

Dan Straily (.194 – 67.9 – 11.8) was pulled from a no-hit bid in the sixth last time out because he had walked five batters. A 15.5 BB% is how you strand less than 70% of your runners with a BABIP below .200. His SwStr% does suggest a few more Ks, but his career strikeout rate is just 19.8% with that same 10.6 SwStr%. He does get the Padres in Petco, but a cost just below $8K is nothing special here.

Lance Lynn (.200 – 77.4% – 15.0) is missing fewer bats and having his normal issues with LHBs since returning from TJ surgery. The Brewers lean more right-handed and do strike out a ton (26.8%), so I’m sure there’ll be some supporters tonight, but his estimators foresee a great deal of punishment in his future.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Kenta Maeda has a 14.0 SwStr% and estimators that are about half his 7.07 ERA. He’s allowed three HRs and has a 54% strand rate despite just a 23.8 Hard% and pretty reasonable if not favorable Statcast data. This isn’t about the performance nearly so much as the leash. He’s not lasted more than five innings or 83 pitches in any of his three starts. If we consider him an $8-9K pitcher on this workload, does that mean he’s a $10-12K pitcher on a 100 pitch workload? That’s a bit questionable in Arizona.

Antonio Senzatela has looked good through three starts, but his first two were against the Brewers and Padres. Then he traveled to San Francisco and pitched seven innings, but struck out just three. While he started off throwing gas in his first two starts and then lost velocity around 60 pitches, he was down a couple mph in his last start, but steadier throughout. He was an afterthought on most Colorado prospect lists and considered a reliever. Maybe his stuff will play up in one of those multi-inning super-reliever roles becoming popular this year. This is just too tough a spot for him without enough upside. That said, he’s essentially minimum priced on DraftKings, but I don’t see where you’d need a pitcher that cheap too often today.

Jaime Garcia

Steven Wright – DRA REALLY hates knuckleballs!

Nick Martinez has a career 3.7 K-BB% in just over 300 innings.

Jayson Aquino was an “also mentioned”, just outside the Top 18 Baltimore prospects write-up by Fangraphs this season. The 25 year-old appears to be more of a junk baller than hard thrower with strong walk rates throughout the minors, but few strikeouts until last season where he posted a 17.7 K-BB% at AAA. In three relief appearances (eight batters), he’s failed to generate a ground ball in the majors yet. A low strikeout Boston offense has already seen him in two of his three short outings.

Matt Moore

Jered Weaver

Casey Lawrence is a little old (29) to be making his first major league start. He’s been in the Toronto system since 2010, cracking a 16% strikeout rate only once at High A or above since 2011 before this season, when he struck out seven of 19 batters prior to his call-up. In his two relief outings, he’s walked five of the 14 batters he’s faced.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher	Team	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Adalberto Mejia	Twins	L2 Years	9.3%	14.0%	Home	20.0%	15.0%	L14 Days	13.3%	16.7%
Antonio Senzatela	Rockies	L2 Years	18.9%	5.4%	Home	18.5%	3.7%	L14 Days	14.8%	1.9%
Ariel Miranda	Mariners	L2 Years	19.0%	7.5%	Road	12.4%	10.6%	L14 Days	20.0%	4.0%
Blake Snell	Rays	L2 Years	23.0%	12.9%	Home	24.6%	14.5%	L14 Days	13.6%	11.4%
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	L2 Years	27.2%	6.0%	Road	28.3%	4.5%	L14 Days	23.5%	9.8%
Casey Lawrence	Blue Jays	L2 Years	14.3%	35.7%	Road	14.3%	35.7%	L14 Days	14.3%	35.7%
Charlie Morton	Astros	L2 Years	18.1%	7.8%	Road	25.0%	8.3%	L14 Days	18.8%	8.3%
Chase Anderson	Brewers	L2 Years	18.0%	7.2%	Home	19.6%	7.7%	L14 Days	25.5%	6.4%
Cody Reed	Reds	L2 Years	20.0%	9.0%	Home	19.1%	8.2%	L14 Days	38.9%	0.0%
Dan Straily	Marlins	L2 Years	20.1%	9.7%	Road	20.0%	8.4%	L14 Days	24.4%	17.1%
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	L2 Years	22.2%	8.1%	Road	19.8%	7.3%	L14 Days	14.0%	5.3%
Ian Kennedy	Royals	L2 Years	23.5%	7.8%	Road	22.7%	8.9%	L14 Days	26.9%	7.7%
Jacob deGrom	Mets	L2 Years	26.2%	5.6%	Home	29.0%	7.3%	L14 Days	31.4%	5.9%
Jaime Garcia	Braves	L2 Years	19.2%	7.1%	Road	18.3%	8.0%	L14 Days	15.4%	9.6%
Jake Arrieta	Cubs	L2 Years	25.8%	7.5%	Road	20.6%	7.7%	L14 Days	31.3%	6.3%
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	L2 Years	20.3%	4.8%	Home	20.2%	4.3%	L14 Days	18.5%	7.4%
Jayson Aquino	Orioles	L2 Years	37.5%	0.0%	Home	33.3%	0.0%	L14 Days
Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	L2 Years	21.4%	5.6%	Home	22.3%	5.7%	L14 Days	22.2%	9.3%
Jered Weaver	Padres	L2 Years	13.5%	5.8%	Home	15.3%	5.5%	L14 Days	17.8%	0.0%
Jharel Cotton	Athletics	L2 Years	19.6%	7.1%	Home	18.8%	7.1%	L14 Days	18.0%	14.0%
Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	L2 Years	24.9%	7.0%	Road	24.2%	6.2%	L14 Days	25.6%	5.1%
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	L2 Years	21.4%	9.2%	Road	16.0%	16.0%	L14 Days	17.3%	9.6%
Matt Boyd	Tigers	L2 Years	18.7%	7.9%	Road	20.1%	6.4%	L14 Days	20.0%	8.9%
Matt Moore	Giants	L2 Years	19.7%	8.3%	Road	19.2%	10.3%	L14 Days	17.2%	5.2%
Michael Pineda	Yankees	L2 Years	25.8%	5.1%	Road	27.4%	6.7%	L14 Days	32.7%	1.9%
Mike Pelfrey	White Sox	L2 Years	11.4%	7.1%	Home	11.3%	4.5%	L14 Days
Nick Martinez	Rangers	L2 Years	12.7%	8.8%	Home	7.6%	9.1%	L14 Days
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	25.8%	9.5%	Home	26.1%	8.4%	L14 Days	33.3%	16.7%
Steven Wright	Red Sox	L2 Years	18.5%	8.4%	Road	20.7%	9.0%	L14 Days	13.4%	6.0%
Tyler Skaggs	Angels	L2 Years	23.4%	10.2%	Home	26.3%	12.1%	L14 Days	26.9%	7.7%

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Tigers	Road	23.7%	9.9%	LH	19.9%	6.4%	L7Days	26.1%	8.3%
Giants	Road	20.9%	8.0%	RH	17.8%	7.5%	L7Days	18.9%	5.0%
Athletics	Home	24.1%	9.5%	LH	22.7%	7.9%	L7Days	23.5%	10.3%
Astros	Road	18.0%	10.8%	LH	17.7%	10.0%	L7Days	22.1%	8.5%
White Sox	Home	22.2%	9.3%	RH	25.1%	5.8%	L7Days	23.8%	4.0%
Angels	Home	19.1%	8.3%	RH	22.1%	7.7%	L7Days	25.7%	7.8%
Rays	Home	23.3%	10.4%	RH	26.2%	7.8%	L7Days	27.9%	8.4%
Cardinals	Road	21.7%	5.9%	RH	21.7%	8.7%	L7Days	20.2%	5.4%
Cubs	Road	22.1%	9.4%	LH	19.7%	12.0%	L7Days	24.0%	8.3%
Padres	Home	19.9%	8.3%	RH	22.4%	7.6%	L7Days	24.3%	6.4%
Mets	Home	20.3%	9.6%	LH	17.6%	9.1%	L7Days	19.1%	10.7%
Rangers	Home	25.3%	8.8%	RH	20.9%	8.1%	L7Days	21.5%	9.8%
Nationals	Road	20.0%	11.1%	RH	18.8%	9.2%	L7Days	13.1%	9.3%
Phillies	Home	20.0%	8.7%	LH	22.4%	9.6%	L7Days	22.3%	5.2%
Reds	Home	20.9%	7.7%	RH	18.0%	8.2%	L7Days	21.4%	10.9%
Yankees	Road	19.0%	10.4%	RH	20.7%	10.2%	L7Days	23.1%	10.9%
Red Sox	Road	18.0%	8.3%	LH	18.0%	12.0%	L7Days	17.1%	7.4%
Braves	Road	21.3%	5.7%	RH	21.6%	7.4%	L7Days	21.3%	6.8%
Marlins	Road	21.2%	6.0%	RH	22.6%	6.0%	L7Days	23.1%	4.2%
Mariners	Road	23.2%	8.7%	RH	21.7%	9.0%	L7Days	19.0%	11.6%
Diamondbacks	Home	23.2%	9.2%	RH	25.6%	9.9%	L7Days	26.7%	10.3%
Brewers	Home	33.2%	8.2%	RH	26.8%	8.5%	L7Days	28.7%	9.1%
Twins	Home	21.4%	13.6%	LH	22.3%	12.2%	L7Days	23.1%	10.9%
Rockies	Home	22.7%	7.4%	LH	26.5%	4.6%	L7Days	24.9%	5.9%
Pirates	Home	18.6%	9.8%	RH	16.2%	7.4%	L7Days	16.9%	7.3%
Indians	Road	18.1%	9.3%	RH	21.1%	8.7%	L7Days	18.7%	8.7%
Royals	Road	22.6%	7.9%	RH	22.4%	7.5%	L7Days	22.9%	7.6%
Dodgers	Road	23.6%	9.5%	LH	21.5%	10.1%	L7Days	23.1%	8.4%
Orioles	Home	20.0%	6.7%	RH	21.6%	6.6%	L7Days	24.4%	5.9%
Blue Jays	Road	22.2%	9.9%	LH	26.6%	9.7%	L7Days	25.9%	7.0%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher	Team	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Adalberto Mejia	Twins	L2 Years	28.1%	0.0%	6.2%	2017	20.0%	0.0%	-10.0%	Home	15.4%	0.0%	-7.7%	L14 Days	20.0%	0.0%	-10.0%
Antonio Senzatela	Rockies	L2 Years	29.1%	6.3%	14.5%	2017	29.1%	6.3%	14.5%	Home	28.6%	16.7%	14.3%	L14 Days	26.7%	7.7%	8.9%
Ariel Miranda	Mariners	L2 Years	35.0%	14.2%	15.3%	2017	28.3%	15.8%	1.9%	Road	31.4%	12.2%	9.3%	L14 Days	29.0%	9.1%	0.0%
Blake Snell	Rays	L2 Years	31.0%	5.6%	9.2%	2017	29.4%	5.6%	9.8%	Home	30.8%	4.9%	4.5%	L14 Days	30.3%	0.0%	6.1%
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	L2 Years	31.3%	15.2%	14.2%	2017	25.5%	20.0%	4.2%	Road	32.4%	12.7%	13.6%	L14 Days	23.5%	18.2%	5.8%
Casey Lawrence	Blue Jays	L2 Years	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	2017	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	Road	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	L14 Days	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%
Charlie Morton	Astros	L2 Years	30.5%	13.8%	10.1%	2017	33.3%	6.7%	17.6%	Road	25.8%	12.5%	16.1%	L14 Days	37.5%	0.0%	25.0%
Chase Anderson	Brewers	L2 Years	31.6%	12.8%	16.1%	2017	30.6%	5.3%	16.3%	Home	36.8%	12.7%	17.8%	L14 Days	21.9%	0.0%	12.5%
Cody Reed	Reds	L2 Years	37.5%	26.7%	20.4%	2017	7.7%	0.0%	-23.1%	Home	38.0%	25.0%	17.7%	L14 Days	9.1%	0.0%	-27.3%
Dan Straily	Marlins	L2 Years	32.0%	11.9%	16.3%	2017	34.2%	11.8%	10.5%	Road	31.2%	14.8%	14.4%	L14 Days	34.8%	10.0%	8.7%
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	L2 Years	30.8%	9.3%	11.8%	2017	27.9%	9.1%	3.3%	Road	32.7%	11.0%	12.8%	L14 Days	24.4%	10.0%	0.0%
Ian Kennedy	Royals	L2 Years	36.3%	14.1%	19.5%	2017	42.6%	4.2%	23.4%	Road	33.6%	14.5%	13.2%	L14 Days	44.1%	5.9%	20.6%
Jacob deGrom	Mets	L2 Years	28.3%	11.0%	8.4%	2017	19.6%	15.4%	-10.8%	Home	26.6%	10.8%	4.6%	L14 Days	25.0%	20.0%	-6.3%
Jaime Garcia	Braves	L2 Years	29.8%	15.3%	9.9%	2017	35.5%	18.2%	11.3%	Road	30.7%	15.7%	8.8%	L14 Days	33.3%	25.0%	5.1%
Jake Arrieta	Cubs	L2 Years	24.0%	10.4%	1.3%	2017	28.3%	15.0%	2.2%	Road	28.3%	12.8%	5.1%	L14 Days	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%
Jameson Taillon	Pirates	L2 Years	32.5%	14.7%	14.9%	2017	28.6%	9.1%	9.0%	Home	33.3%	12.7%	16.2%	L14 Days	12.8%	11.1%	-5.2%
Jayson Aquino	Orioles	L2 Years	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2017				Home	0.0%	0.0%	-50.0%	L14 Days
Jerad Eickhoff	Phillies	L2 Years	31.5%	12.1%	11.9%	2017	27.3%	10.3%	14.6%	Home	28.1%	14.0%	7.2%	L14 Days	21.6%	9.1%	8.1%
Jered Weaver	Padres	L2 Years	32.3%	11.8%	12.3%	2017	34.6%	29.4%	14.6%	Home	33.7%	12.7%	14.2%	L14 Days	32.4%	30.0%	13.5%
Jharel Cotton	Athletics	L2 Years	27.4%	6.8%	4.4%	2017	26.0%	0.0%	2.0%	Home	28.9%	7.7%	3.6%	L14 Days	26.5%	0.0%	0.0%
Kenta Maeda	Dodgers	L2 Years	28.6%	12.2%	9.0%	2017	23.8%	15.8%	9.5%	Road	29.8%	13.6%	8.8%	L14 Days	29.6%	15.4%	22.2%
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	L2 Years	28.0%	9.0%	9.9%	2017	28.3%	15.0%	17.0%	Road	35.3%	37.5%	29.4%	L14 Days	30.6%	20.0%	16.7%
Matt Boyd	Tigers	L2 Years	32.4%	14.3%	14.4%	2017	41.9%	5.9%	21.0%	Road	30.4%	12.3%	11.6%	L14 Days	37.5%	0.0%	15.6%
Matt Moore	Giants	L2 Years	31.8%	10.4%	15.1%	2017	40.9%	7.7%	28.8%	Road	29.8%	10.6%	15.8%	L14 Days	50.0%	10.5%	38.6%
Michael Pineda	Yankees	L2 Years	31.2%	16.2%	13.6%	2017	28.3%	18.8%	15.3%	Road	30.5%	10.5%	12.2%	L14 Days	26.5%	15.4%	11.8%
Mike Pelfrey	White Sox	L2 Years	28.5%	9.6%	8.9%	2017				Home	34.6%	19.7%	15.0%	L14 Days
Nick Martinez	Rangers	L2 Years	31.0%	14.1%	16.7%	2017				Home	40.7%	35.3%	22.2%	L14 Days
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	36.4%	12.0%	20.8%	2017	47.5%	15.4%	32.5%	Home	38.8%	15.2%	23.1%	L14 Days	48.2%	12.5%	29.7%
Steven Wright	Red Sox	L2 Years	31.2%	10.1%	8.7%	2017	46.2%	27.8%	32.7%	Road	31.5%	5.1%	8.2%	L14 Days	46.2%	27.8%	32.7%
Tyler Skaggs	Angels	L2 Years	30.6%	11.6%	7.8%	2017	22.5%	14.3%	-4.0%	Home	30.5%	11.1%	5.1%	L14 Days	21.2%	16.7%	-9.1%

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Tigers	Road	33.8%	13.6%	14.2%	LH	37.3%	16.0%	20.6%	L7Days	34.5%	10.6%	12.7%
Giants	Road	32.6%	11.6%	14.8%	RH	27.7%	5.3%	9.3%	L7Days	27.7%	2.6%	3.6%
Athletics	Home	29.5%	17.5%	11.3%	LH	30.7%	6.3%	8.6%	L7Days	31.4%	17.3%	15.0%
Astros	Road	32.2%	8.0%	13.2%	LH	25.0%	11.8%	5.1%	L7Days	40.0%	16.3%	25.5%
White Sox	Home	31.9%	8.8%	11.8%	RH	24.9%	10.9%	7.5%	L7Days	22.2%	8.3%	4.1%
Angels	Home	28.8%	16.7%	10.3%	RH	28.5%	13.0%	8.1%	L7Days	30.1%	7.7%	6.4%
Rays	Home	34.6%	15.6%	13.9%	RH	34.5%	17.6%	15.8%	L7Days	39.8%	14.1%	21.7%
Cardinals	Road	34.0%	13.9%	21.0%	RH	28.0%	13.6%	10.5%	L7Days	36.2%	15.8%	23.2%
Cubs	Road	27.9%	9.4%	6.6%	LH	26.9%	13.2%	-5.4%	L7Days	26.7%	15.5%	9.9%
Padres	Home	25.2%	14.0%	1.8%	RH	28.4%	16.5%	6.2%	L7Days	28.4%	18.0%	4.3%
Mets	Home	26.7%	9.8%	6.8%	LH	35.0%	16.9%	16.7%	L7Days	26.6%	8.1%	2.5%
Rangers	Home	34.9%	21.1%	17.2%	RH	32.3%	15.7%	13.7%	L7Days	27.4%	9.1%	5.7%
Nationals	Road	28.1%	13.3%	11.9%	RH	28.9%	12.6%	11.7%	L7Days	27.9%	11.8%	9.9%
Phillies	Home	24.9%	12.3%	1.6%	LH	28.2%	10.3%	3.5%	L7Days	29.9%	8.7%	3.1%
Reds	Home	29.3%	12.0%	8.8%	RH	26.4%	9.1%	3.7%	L7Days	30.7%	11.3%	7.2%
Yankees	Road	26.5%	8.3%	5.1%	RH	30.6%	14.6%	9.0%	L7Days	30.1%	14.5%	10.2%
Red Sox	Road	37.2%	2.5%	18.8%	LH	38.7%	4.0%	21.5%	L7Days	30.9%	4.9%	10.8%
Braves	Road	27.5%	12.1%	8.9%	RH	29.8%	11.6%	12.2%	L7Days	26.4%	15.7%	5.0%
Marlins	Road	30.0%	13.8%	10.6%	RH	33.2%	16.3%	14.5%	L7Days	32.7%	26.7%	12.4%
Mariners	Road	22.7%	7.6%	0.9%	RH	27.8%	9.8%	7.4%	L7Days	30.9%	10.6%	11.5%
Diamondbacks	Home	40.8%	13.2%	29.9%	RH	35.0%	11.6%	20.2%	L7Days	29.1%	10.9%	11.7%
Brewers	Home	41.3%	23.0%	20.7%	RH	33.6%	22.3%	13.8%	L7Days	36.6%	28.3%	14.6%
Twins	Home	31.1%	5.2%	11.7%	LH	32.0%	6.4%	13.1%	L7Days	32.0%	5.4%	11.3%
Rockies	Home	27.4%	18.2%	7.2%	LH	35.3%	18.5%	16.0%	L7Days	32.5%	18.9%	7.1%
Pirates	Home	28.1%	9.8%	4.3%	RH	27.4%	7.6%	4.8%	L7Days	23.5%	14.3%	0.0%
Indians	Road	39.9%	9.5%	22.9%	RH	37.5%	12.8%	21.4%	L7Days	35.7%	12.3%	13.5%
Royals	Road	29.3%	15.6%	4.3%	RH	28.4%	13.0%	4.9%	L7Days	28.1%	5.5%	7.2%
Dodgers	Road	30.6%	8.6%	10.4%	LH	32.1%	8.1%	16.6%	L7Days	34.2%	11.5%	20.1%
Orioles	Home	27.0%	10.5%	7.9%	RH	31.8%	16.3%	11.5%	L7Days	36.6%	13.2%	13.1%
Blue Jays	Road	31.5%	7.5%	9.7%	LH	28.9%	14.3%	11.4%	L7Days	31.1%	12.7%	7.5%

K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher	Team	K% Season	SwStr% Season	K%/SwStr%	K% L30 Days	SwStr% L30 Days	K%/SwStr%
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	13.3%	6.8%	1.96	13.3%	6.8%	1.96
Antonio Senzatela	COL	18.9%	6.8%	2.78	18.9%	6.8%	2.78
Ariel Miranda	SEA	19.2%	8.0%	2.40	19.2%	8.0%	2.40
Blake Snell	TAM	15.3%	8.9%	1.72	15.3%	8.9%	1.72
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	26.0%	10.2%	2.55	26.0%	10.2%	2.55
Casey Lawrence	TOR	14.3%	9.1%	1.57	14.3%	9.1%	1.57
Charlie Morton	HOU	17.8%	9.2%	1.93	17.8%	9.2%	1.93
Chase Anderson	MIL	22.9%	10.2%	2.25	22.9%	10.2%	2.25
Cody Reed	CIN	32.0%	17.1%	1.87	32.0%	17.1%	1.87
Dan Straily	FLA	17.2%	10.5%	1.64	17.2%	10.5%	1.64
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	18.3%	9.1%	2.01	18.3%	9.1%	2.01
Ian Kennedy	KAN	25.3%	11.8%	2.14	25.3%	11.8%	2.14
Jacob deGrom	NYM	30.6%	14.9%	2.05	30.6%	14.9%	2.05
Jaime Garcia	ATL	10.4%	8.9%	1.17	10.4%	8.9%	1.17
Jake Arrieta	CHC	28.8%	8.7%	3.31	28.8%	8.7%	3.31
Jameson Taillon	PIT	20.0%	8.8%	2.27	20.0%	8.8%	2.27
Jayson Aquino	BAL
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	22.8%	9.7%	2.35	22.8%	9.7%	2.35
Jered Weaver	SDG	14.5%	9.6%	1.51	14.5%	9.6%	1.51
Jharel Cotton	OAK	18.1%	10.2%	1.77	18.1%	10.2%	1.77
Kenta Maeda	LOS	23.3%	14.0%	1.66	23.3%	14.0%	1.66
Lance Lynn	STL	17.6%	8.2%	2.15	17.6%	8.2%	2.15
Matt Boyd	DET	17.7%	8.7%	2.03	17.7%	8.7%	2.03
Matt Moore	SFO	15.3%	7.7%	1.99	15.3%	7.7%	1.99
Michael Pineda	NYY	32.9%	13.5%	2.44	32.9%	13.5%	2.44
Mike Pelfrey	CHW
Nick Martinez	TEX
Robbie Ray	ARI	31.6%	12.9%	2.45	31.6%	12.9%	2.45
Steven Wright	BOS	13.4%	6.2%	2.16	13.4%	6.2%	2.16
Tyler Skaggs	ANA	25.0%	12.6%	1.98	25.0%	12.6%	1.98

We’re considering three of the four pitchers exceeding a 10.5 SwStr% tonight and only omitting the one due to a significant workload issue and one of the worst run scoring environments tonight.

ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher	Team	Season ERA	Season SIERA	DIFF	Season xFIP	DIFF	Season FIP	DIFF	Season DRA	DIFF	ERA L30	SIERA L30	DIFF	xFIP L30	DIFF	FIP L30	DIFF
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	4.05	6.18	2.13	6.55	2.5	4.41	0.36	4.12	0.07	4.05	6.21	2.16	6.55	2.5	4.41	0.36
Antonio Senzatela	COL	2.37	3.72	1.35	3.56	1.19	2.91	0.54	5.99	3.62	2.37	3.72	1.35	3.56	1.19	2.91	0.54
Ariel Miranda	SEA	3.06	3.97	0.91	4.05	0.99	4.56	1.5	6.69	3.63	3.06	3.98	0.92	4.05	0.99	4.56	1.5
Blake Snell	TAM	2.76	5.42	2.66	5.14	2.38	4.2	1.44	3.09	0.33	2.76	5.43	2.67	5.14	2.38	4.2	1.44
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	2.33	3.35	1.02	3.26	0.93	4.05	1.72	0.95	-1.38	2.33	3.36	1.03	3.26	0.93	4.05	1.72
Casey Lawrence	TOR	13.5	9.53	-3.97	9.2	-4.3	8.41	-5.09	1.23	-12.27	13.5	9.53	-3.97	9.2	-4.3	8.41	-5.09
Charlie Morton	HOU	2.81	4.18	1.37	4.27	1.46	3.6	0.79	3.12	0.31	2.81	4.18	1.37	4.27	1.46	3.6	0.79
Chase Anderson	MIL	1.5	3.65	2.15	3.64	2.14	2.69	1.19	5.85	4.35	1.5	3.65	2.15	3.64	2.14	2.69	1.19
Cody Reed	CIN	0	2.98	2.98	2.81	2.81	2.41	2.41	1.96	1.96	0	2.98	2.98	2.81	2.81	2.41	2.41
Dan Straily	FLA	4.61	5.49	0.88	5.61	1	5.55	0.94	5.65	1.04	4.61	5.5	0.89	5.61	1	5.55	0.94
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	1.33	3.91	2.58	4.03	2.7	3.6	2.27	5.31	3.98	1.33	3.91	2.58	4.03	2.7	3.6	2.27
Ian Kennedy	KAN	2.37	4.03	1.66	4.33	1.96	3.02	0.65	4.08	1.71	2.37	4.03	1.66	4.33	1.96	3.02	0.65
Jacob deGrom	NYM	1.89	2.32	0.43	2.31	0.42	2.6	0.71	0.93	-0.96	1.89	2.32	0.43	2.31	0.42	2.6	0.71
Jaime Garcia	ATL	4.67	5.47	0.8	5.21	0.54	6.2	1.53	8.42	3.75	4.67	5.47	0.8	5.21	0.54	6.2	1.53
Jake Arrieta	CHC	2.89	2.94	0.05	3.32	0.43	3.72	0.83	2.03	-0.86	2.89	2.95	0.06	3.32	0.43	3.72	0.83
Jameson Taillon	PIT	0.9	3.65	2.75	3.38	2.48	3.16	2.26	1.73	0.83	0.9	3.65	2.75	3.38	2.48	3.16	2.26
Jayson Aquino	BAL
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	2.75	3.82	1.07	4.33	1.58	3.98	1.23	6.36	3.61	2.75	3.83	1.08	4.33	1.58	3.98	1.23
Jered Weaver	SDG	4.24	4.11	-0.13	4.02	-0.22	6.27	2.03	9.84	5.60	4.24	4.11	-0.13	4.02	-0.22	6.27	2.03
Jharel Cotton	OAK	5.4	4.93	-0.47	4.68	-0.72	2.97	-2.43	5.34	-0.06	5.4	4.94	-0.46	4.68	-0.72	2.97	-2.43
Kenta Maeda	LOS	7.07	3.69	-3.38	3.91	-3.16	4.56	-2.51	3.18	-3.89	7.07	3.69	-3.38	3.91	-3.16	4.56	-2.51
Lance Lynn	STL	3.12	4.34	1.22	4.62	1.5	5.05	1.93	8.29	5.17	3.12	4.35	1.23	4.62	1.5	5.05	1.93
Matt Boyd	DET	3.77	5	1.23	4.93	1.16	3.96	0.19	6.86	3.09	3.77	5.01	1.24	4.93	1.16	3.96	0.19
Matt Moore	SFO	4.26	4.34	0.08	4.65	0.39	3.86	-0.4	12.01	7.75	4.26	4.34	0.08	4.65	0.39	3.86	-0.4
Michael Pineda	NYY	3.44	1.94	-1.5	1.95	-1.49	2.7	-0.74	0.76	-2.68	3.44	1.94	-1.5	1.95	-1.49	2.7	-0.74
Mike Pelfrey	CHW
Nick Martinez	TEX
Robbie Ray	ARI	1.96	3.82	1.86	3.38	1.42	3.68	1.72	1.22	-0.74	1.96	3.83	1.87	3.38	1.42	3.68	1.72
Steven Wright	BOS	8.36	4.64	-3.72	4.94	-3.42	7.56	-0.8	17.98	9.62	8.36	4.64	-3.72	4.94	-3.42	7.56	-0.8
Tyler Skaggs	ANA	5.19	3.73	-1.46	4.02	-1.17	4.36	-0.83	2.79	-2.40	5.19	3.73	-1.46	4.02	-1.17	4.36	-0.83

There are five night slate pitchers with a DRA exceeding eight. Of those, Jered Weaver actually has the best remaining non-FIP estimators.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher	Team	Team BABIP	Pitcher BABIP	Diff	GB%	Pitcher LD%	Pitcher IFFB%	Pitcher Zcontact	Exit Velocity	Barrels BBE	Barrels PA	BBE
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	0.244	0.300	0.056	40.0%	0.15	11.1%	87.2%	88.3	5.00%	3.30%	20
Antonio Senzatela	COL	0.286	0.241	-0.045	45.5%	0.255	6.3%	94.1%	90	10.90%	8.10%	55
Ariel Miranda	SEA	0.306	0.260	-0.046	45.1%	0.176	21.1%	87.9%	89.3	7.80%	5.50%	51
Blake Snell	TAM	0.281	0.220	-0.061	42.0%	0.22	22.2%	83.3%	84.9	2.00%	1.40%	49
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	0.320	0.205	-0.115	41.3%	0.261	20.0%	93.4%	87.5	11.60%	6.80%	43
Casey Lawrence	TOR	0.297	0.429	0.132	66.7%	0.167	0.0%	84.6%
Charlie Morton	HOU	0.263	0.314	0.051	48.0%	0.22	0.0%	87.4%	87.1	6.00%	4.10%	50
Chase Anderson	MIL	0.308	0.250	-0.058	40.0%	0.178	10.5%	89.0%	87.8	4.40%	2.90%	45
Cody Reed	CIN	0.261	0.000	-0.261	76.9%	0.077	0.0%	76.5%	78.9	0.00%	0.00%	13
Dan Straily	FLA	0.256	0.194	-0.062	41.7%	0.111	17.6%	86.1%	87.5	5.70%	3.40%	35
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	0.284	0.271	-0.013	41.4%	0.207	9.1%	87.8%	87.5	3.50%	2.40%	57
Ian Kennedy	KAN	0.259	0.217	-0.042	38.3%	0.106	8.3%	77.1%	90.4	6.50%	4.00%	46
Jacob deGrom	NYM	0.293	0.227	-0.066	60.9%	0.109	7.7%	73.8%	84.2	2.20%	1.40%	46
Jaime Garcia	ATL	0.280	0.241	-0.039	36.1%	0.279	9.1%	90.9%	87.5	8.30%	6.50%	60
Jake Arrieta	CHC	0.261	0.209	-0.052	43.5%	0.13	15.0%	81.4%	84	4.40%	2.70%	45
Jameson Taillon	PIT	0.294	0.273	-0.021	55.4%	0.25	9.1%	88.8%	88.1	5.50%	3.80%	55
Jayson Aquino	BAL	0.305
Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	0.277	0.250	-0.027	38.2%	0.091	3.4%	92.3%	90	1.80%	1.30%	55
Jered Weaver	SDG	0.255	0.200	-0.055	47.3%	0.218	11.8%	88.3%	87.4	11.10%	8.70%	54
Jharel Cotton	OAK	0.251	0.300	0.049	32.7%	0.306	16.7%	82.7%	86.5	0.00%	0.00%	49
Kenta Maeda	LOS	0.284	0.308	0.024	30.8%	0.205	5.3%	80.5%	88.8	5.30%	3.30%	38
Lance Lynn	STL	0.317	0.200	-0.117	43.4%	0.189	0.0%	85.1%	88.1	5.90%	4.10%	51
Matt Boyd	DET	0.308	0.286	-0.022	40.5%	0.19	5.9%	83.7%
Matt Moore	SFO	0.300	0.297	-0.003	47.0%	0.136	0.0%	88.0%	91.7	10.60%	8.20%	66
Michael Pineda	NYY	0.272	0.302	0.03	48.9%	0.156	0.0%	86.1%	87.3	2.30%	1.40%	44
Mike Pelfrey	CHW	0.256
Nick Martinez	TEX	0.276
Robbie Ray	ARI	0.290	0.211	-0.079	41.0%	0.256	15.4%	82.8%	89.7	5.30%	2.60%	38
Steven Wright	BOS	0.289	0.404	0.115	38.5%	0.269	5.6%	89.9%	91.4	11.50%	9.00%	52
Tyler Skaggs	ANA	0.275	0.304	0.029	28.6%	0.286	4.8%	81.3%	87.2	8.30%	5.30%	48

I’m starting to wonder if it’s more of a function of a league wide focus on an intention of generating fly balls that has all of these team BABIPs so much lower rather than improved defense or more shifting. It’s going to be something to watch, but perhaps singles are going away.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Carlos Carrasco (1) – I spent the good part of a large paragraph laying out a number of reasons that would justify caution here and then place him atop the shopping list tonight. The reality is that tonight’s slate is not packed with enviable arms and he’s facing the White Sox, who are this year’s Phillies/Braves/Padres from the last few seasons. He’s already done his best work against this offense (7 IP – 1 ER – 0 BB – 7 K). He’s the only pitcher to crack $10K on either site.

Value Tier Two

Robbie Ray costs too little for his upside, at least on this slate. This section is filled with high risk, high reward arms rather than potentially safer, lower upside ones tonight and perhaps none exemplify this more so than him. The Dodgers stink against LHP with several of their new RH bats to thwart that reputation already injured.

Value Tier Three

Tyler Skaggs is down velocity-wise, but his swinging strike and hard contact rates have actually improved significantly. The Blue Jays are still a good offense, but are down an MVP candidate at the moment and in a great park for a fly ball pitcher tonight.

Ian Kennedy appears on this list in Texas while Dan Straily is over-looked in San Diego at the same cost? I’m opting for upside. The risk of a blowup is bigger here, but so is the potential for 10 strikeouts.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Chase Anderson is probably too cheap on DraftKings ($5.7K), while sitting at $2K more on FanDuel. Players are likely going to have to step out of their comfort zones on this slate and he has looked better, even if it’s not immediately apparent why.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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