Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, August 14th
This is not going to be the most lengthy article introduction I’ve written this year. Including my new sports betting article here on RotoGrinders (shameless plug), I’ll be setting a personal record for single day content today, so I’ll do everyone a favor and keep this short, moving right on to the 28 pitchers on tonight’s slate.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | -4.9 | 3.71 | 5.7 | 50.4% | 0.90 | 3.46 | 5.23 | Giants | 81 | 89 | 75 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -7.9 | 5.29 | 5.6 | 46.1% | 1.04 | 5.23 | 5.99 | Mets | 100 | 95 | 104 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | -4.7 | 3.81 | 5.5 | 50.3% | 0.90 | 3.78 | 4.02 | Dodgers | 107 | 90 | 103 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 2.7 | 4.05 | 5.3 | 38.9% | 0.99 | 3.78 | 2.43 | Marlins | 84 | 83 | 40 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 3.4 | 4.60 | 5.3 | 40.7% | 1.02 | 4.73 | 4.26 | White Sox | 90 | 88 | 69 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | -4.7 | 4.72 | 4.0 | 33.3% | 0.91 | 4.72 | Angels | 100 | 112 | 120 | |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 6.1 | 3.02 | 6.8 | 43.8% | 1.04 | 3.03 | 3.23 | Reds | 99 | 95 | 86 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.05 | 5.6 | 47.0% | 0.89 | 4.01 | 2.70 | Astros | 102 | 106 | 76 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -3.7 | 4.37 | 5.8 | 47.9% | 0.93 | 4.41 | 4.45 | Cardinals | 93 | 106 | 152 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 4.1 | 5.24 | 5.2 | 50.4% | 1.04 | 4.43 | 5.69 | Blue Jays | 97 | 102 | 92 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | -0.6 | 3.82 | 1.7 | 47.1% | 1.03 | 4.62 | 3.69 | Yankees | 124 | 108 | 112 |
| J.A. Happ | Yankees | 7.4 | 3.97 | 5.8 | 44.9% | 1.03 | 3.86 | 2.50 | Rays | 96 | 108 | 75 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.5 | 4.63 | 5.1 | 40.2% | 0.91 | 5.42 | 4.77 | Padres | 91 | 82 | 119 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | -0.1 | 4.65 | 5.1 | 30.6% | 1.04 | 4.75 | 6.30 | Pirates | 95 | 97 | 109 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -1.6 | 3.24 | 5.8 | 42.9% | 0.95 | 3.24 | 3.37 | Athletics | 93 | 104 | 112 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -0.1 | 4.03 | 5.6 | 48.4% | 1.04 | 4.09 | 5.36 | Twins | 101 | 96 | 73 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -6.1 | 4.79 | 5.1 | 38.8% | 1.04 | 5.09 | 3.91 | Orioles | 97 | 77 | 97 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.56 | 5.6 | 46.4% | 1.01 | 4.73 | 5.63 | Cubs | 108 | 104 | 54 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 4.75 | 4.8 | 47.0% | 0.93 | 4.67 | 3.79 | Nationals | 90 | 98 | 100 | |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 7.6 | 4.12 | 5.8 | 43.9% | 1.01 | 3.95 | 3.90 | Brewers | 94 | 94 | 112 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 3.40 | 6.3 | 31.5% | 0.89 | 3.86 | 2.11 | Rockies | 84 | 78 | 81 | |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -4.8 | 5.37 | 5.7 | 42.0% | 1.02 | 5.60 | 4.07 | Tigers | 90 | 76 | 91 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 1.7 | 4.38 | 5.5 | 41.5% | 0.95 | 4.55 | 2.18 | Mariners | 104 | 102 | 120 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -8 | 3.79 | 5.1 | 44.5% | 0.99 | 3.31 | 2.60 | Red Sox | 110 | 118 | 155 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.2 | 3.55 | 5.9 | 50.7% | 1.14 | 3.50 | 1.99 | Rangers | 108 | 101 | 136 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 7.9 | 3.99 | 6.3 | 41.1% | 0.99 | 4.24 | 3.29 | Phillies | 98 | 93 | 58 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | -5.2 | 4.72 | 6.0 | 46.5% | 1.04 | 5.10 | 5.60 | Royals | 80 | 81 | 69 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -2.2 | 4.79 | 5.4 | 46.9% | 1.04 | 4.42 | 4.70 | Indians | 99 | 108 | 99 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | -0.8 | 4.39 | 5.1 | 36.7% | 0.99 | 4.83 | 3.54 | Braves | 96 | 97 | 120 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 3.7 | 5.32 | 5.3 | 45.0% | 1.14 | 5.18 | 5.77 | Diamondbacks | 87 | 87 | 90 |
Anibal Sanchez left his last start after two innings with a calf issue. Prior to that, he set a season high with nine strikeouts. An altered pitch mix that features more cutters and fewer sinkers has his strikeout rate up to nearly a quarter of batters this year with the lowest aEV on the board (84.4 mph) by a not insignificant margin. One approach might be caution considering the calf issue, but he’s facing the Marlins tonight (84 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+, 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 40 wRC+, 2.2 HR/FB, -0.5 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Blaine Hardy allowed three of his nine HRs on the season last time out. He’s been otherwise competent in a starting role for the Tigers this year. He has just a 17.8 K%, but a .306 xwOBA on the season. His usage would be more about the matchup tonight than anything else though. The White Sox have an 18.5 K-BB% on the road and 18.8 K-BB% vs LHP.
Corey Kluber did allow four runs to the Twins last time out, but has now gone at least seven innings in three straight starts and five of his last six starts. He’s still not striking out batters like he did last season, but has seven in each of his last two starts and still has some of the stronger numbers on the board for the season. Cincinnati is actually a slight park upgrade for him tonight in terms of overall run environment. The Reds are a disciplined bunch, but really a league average offense at best.
German Marquez does not have the best matchup (Astros 10.6 K-BB% vs RHP), but he gets the most massive park upgrade possible from Colorado to Houston and the Astros are still not at full health right now. He’s struck out at least eight in four of his last five starts and has a 30.6 K% since the break. This is a pitcher who’s been making moves recently. As for what he’s been doing to affect this strikeout rate spike, fewer fastballs and more curves and sliders. It almost sounds so obvious, right?
J.A. Happ has struck out nine in two of his last three starts, but in between, he struck out two and missed 10 days with a virus. He’s had some issues with the Rays this season, an offense that was designed to improve their performance against high fastballs, though there’s been some turnover in the lineup at this point. In two starts against them, he has the following line: 10.2 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 7 BB – 7 K. The Rays have a team 108 wRC+ vs LHP and his 9.2% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board, so it’s a good thing he has a 27 K% that’s fifth best on the board.
James Paxton struggled in his last start in Houston and has now allowed three or four runs in four of his last five starts. However, there was an injury thrown in there and in his two starts previous to Houston, he allowed three runs in 14 innings with 15 strikeouts. We can twist numbers any way we want them, right? The negative is that his hard contact rate is way up this year. His 40.3% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board, but he still has a .249 xwOBA over the last month and despite the five point strikeout rate drop over that span, his SwStr% hasn’t budged from a mark that’s allowed him to author a 31.4 K% on the season. The A’s are tough, but better against RHP despite being predominantly right-handed, while he’s actually better against RHBs. He’s only faced his division rivals once this season and it resulted in 16 strikeouts.
John Gant is coming off six strong innings in Miami and has generated a 13+ SwStr% in four of his 10 starts this year. He’s also been below 8.5% in four as well. We don’t know what we’re going to get from him start to start and a perfect example is an 88.3 mph aEV, but just a .313 xwOBA. There’s some danger against a difficult lineup (10.7 K-BB% vs RHP) despite them seeming an average offense by wRC+ in a negative run environment. There’s a tiny bit of upside as well.
Justin Verlander must have looked at Fangraphs and seen that the Mariners are one of the worst performing offenses against fastballs. He then proceeded to throw a bunch of them down the middle of the plate, allow three HRs and then get himself ejected after the second inning while arguing a balk. Hmm…maybe don’t try that again. It’s probably not a reason for any long term concern and his matchup is about as good as it gets with the Rockies coming to town (78 wRC+ vs RHP). Verlander is today’s triple crown winner with a 33.3 K%, 2.78 SIERA, and .249 xwOBA.
Nick Pivetta has a 37 K% over the last month that’s behind only Verlander on this board. His .247 xwOBA is best on the board over that span. He’s not always achieving optimal results, but has allowed just two runs over his last 12 innings. He has a terrible matchup against the Red Sox tonight (118 wRC+ and 18.7 K% vs RHP are both split bests), who are also the hottest offense in the league (155 wRC+, 2.7 K-BB%, 18.5 HR/FB vs RHP). We’re going to continue on with him below, but I still think there’s some value here, partially because he does get them at home without a DH and that may mean missing J.D. Martinez if Bradley isn’t the one to sit.
Trevor Richards had a 21.9 K-BB% in six AAA starts before being called up and struggled with control immediately, but now has a 20.4 K-BB% over his last five starts, in which he’s allowed a total of five runs. It’s not all great news though because he’s also generated a 29.6 Hard-Soft% with a 34.8 GB% over that span and faces a contact prone Atlanta offense (20.5 K% vs RHP) with a park downgrade tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Jaime Barria (.263 – 82.1% – 12.8) does actually have the SwStr% to improve his peripherals and has managed contact well enough to result in a .280 xwOBA over the last month despite the low strikeout rate, but he still has an 88.7 mph aEV on the season. The Padres strike out more than a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP. This is almost somewhat interesting except that he’s only completed six innings once over his last 10 starts. Maybe my favorite weird stat today is the Padres 19.6 HR/FB over the last week with a -2.1 Hard-Soft%. They’re one of three teams with a negative Hard-Soft% over that span and the only one above an 7.5 HR/FB.
Ryan Borucki (.319 – 69.7% – 1.9 – 28.6% unearned run rate) struggled last time out against the Red Sox and that can be forgiven, but he’s not struck out exactly two in three of his last four starts. The numbers are moving too far out of line. It is a great spot though and the Royals do strike out more (23.1%) vs LHP with just an 8.7 HR/FB.
Mike Fiers (.277 – 83.1% – 12.1) struck out eight Dodgers in his debut for the A’s, but faces a more contact prone offense (Mariners 19.9 K% vs RHP) that gets back Cano tonight.
Heath Fillmyer (.250 – 75.9% – 9.1) has just a 2.6 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Patrick Corbin is so borderline for me today and it’s exclusively about the park. He’s top three in strikeout rate (31%), SIERA (2.89) and xwOBA (.289) tonight. The Rangers have a 15.8 HR/FB at home, 14 HR/FB vs LHP and 19 HR/FB over the last week. This is an improved offense over last season and I feel comfortable calling it the worst park adjusted spot on the board tonght.
Rick Porcello has just a 7.3 SwStr% over the last month despite the increase in K%. The Phillies have a 25.6 K% vs RHP, but have added to the offense in the last month. His price tag is somewhat dependent on Wins at this point too. I don’t hate him in this spot, but still don’t like him for more than $9K.
Jameson Taillon is coming off a complete game in Colorado, though he struck out just three with 10 hits. His strikeout rate is down to just 13.9% over the last month despite maintaining the same league average SwStr% he has on the season. The problem, even there, is that he had been increasing his strikeout rate to around a quarter of batters faced when he started throwing a slider frequently, but that no longer happens to be the case. He’s thrown it more than a quarter of the time in each of his last two starts with five combined strikeouts. He still has a league average strikeout rate for the season, which is exactly what the Twins have against RHP too.
Andrew Suarez has a .324 BABIP, but he also has a 90.1 Z-Contact% and an 89.1 mph aEV that’s tied for the worst mark on the board, along with just a 7.0 SwStr%. He has a .404 xwOBA over the last month and despite an extremely negative run environment, I can’t understand why the numbers always seem to like him so much. I’m calling an audible here because the Dodgers have team 90 wRC+ and 10.7 HR/FB vs LHP that’s probably misdirects considering how this lineup is currently constructed.
Alex Wood has missed going six innings in eight straight starts by a single out, reaching 100 pitches in three of his last four starts. However, over his last three starts, he’s walked 10 with just 13 strikeouts. The matchup is great from a run prevention standpoint in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, though the Giants have just a 21.2 K% vs LHP. However, this nasty rumor about Ross Stripling “piggybacking” Tuesday makes it seem like Wood is not going to reach six innings in this game after missing a start with a short DL stint.
Gio Gonzalez suddenly settled down in his last start, going seven one run innings against the Braves, but just as importantly, he’s walked just three of his last 48 batters, though he’s still not missing enough bats (15.8 K% last 11 starts). His xwOBA is still up to .393 over the last month. He does get a park upgrade tonight and may even be too cheap on DraftKings, but the Cardinals are dangerous against southpaws. They have a split high 16.5 HR/FB against them. They have a team 152 wRC+ over the last week that’s second best in the majors along with a 21 HR/FB over that span as well.
Hunter Wood will throw his inning or two and then something else will happen. Sometimes we know what that is. Sometimes that information isn’t even reliable. It’s Yankee Staidum though and probably doesn’t matter enough to get bothered about.
Jason Vargas lasted just one out in his last start, not because he immediately allowed three runs, but because it rained. He still hasn’t exceeded five innings this season, but has a career high 10.8 SwStr% with an 85.7 mph aEV that’s second best on the board among starters today (Wood doesn’t count). What a strange year it’s been. The Orioles have a 77 wRC+ vs LHP, but don’t strike out as much (22.2%).
Brett Kennedy allowed three HRs in his first major league inning to the Brewers, but recovered to not allow any more over the next three. Despite a K-BB above 15% at both AA last year and AAA this season, he’s not really a prospect of much interest and faces a contact prone offense tonight (20.4 K% vs RHP), though their 112 wRC+ against RHP certainly takes a hit without Trout, though they do have a league high 21.7 HR/FB over the last seven days.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 15.5% | Season | 20.9% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 24.5% | Home | 22.2% | 5.3% | 13.8% | 13.8% | L14Days | 15.4% | 11.5% | 17.7% | |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 14.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 12.9% | Season | 16.6% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 12.3% | Home | 14.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.6% | L14Days | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 5.6% | 18.5% | 23.3% | Season | 20.8% | 5.6% | 18.5% | 23.3% | Road | 19.7% | 6.6% | 17.8% | 20.2% | L14Days | 19.2% | 4.3% | 36.4% | 50.0% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 6.3% | 16.8% | 14.9% | Season | 24.4% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 3.9% | Home | 23.5% | 4.9% | 13.3% | 13.7% | L14Days | 34.5% | 6.9% | 17.6% | |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 16.3% | Season | 17.8% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 17.5% | Home | 18.1% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 19.2% | L14Days | 19.6% | 6.5% | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | L2 Yrs | 13.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% | Season | 13.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% | Home | L14Days | 13.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% | |||||||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 29.8% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 11.6% | Season | 24.7% | 3.2% | 13.9% | 19.5% | Road | 27.7% | 3.8% | 18.4% | 15.8% | L14Days | 23.7% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 18.6% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.4% | 16.6% | 16.7% | Season | 24.9% | 8.1% | 18.2% | 16.8% | Road | 22.5% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 16.4% | L14Days | 34.6% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | Season | 20.4% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 14.2% | Road | 21.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 6.3% | 33.3% | 27.0% |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | L2 Yrs | 13.6% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 16.5% | Season | 13.6% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 16.5% | Home | 13.6% | 9.9% | 19.4% | L14Days | 14.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | ||
| Hunter Wood | Rays | L2 Yrs | 26.6% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 8.5% | Season | 26.8% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 10.2% | Road | 23.8% | 14.3% | 20.0% | 11.6% | L14Days | 31.0% | 13.8% | 6.3% | |
| J.A. Happ | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 8.5% | Season | 27.0% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 9.3% | Home | 24.4% | 7.4% | 14.6% | 12.3% | L14Days | 36.0% | 4.0% | 14.3% | 23.0% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 22.7% | Season | 17.6% | 6.9% | 22.7% | Road | 15.8% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 12.4% | L14Days | 17.0% | 6.4% | 25.0% | ||
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 19.1% | Season | 22.8% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 15.1% | Home | 21.9% | 8.4% | 15.6% | 23.4% | L14Days | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 29.4% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 14.3% | Season | 31.4% | 6.6% | 12.3% | 15.3% | Road | 28.8% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 18.1% | L14Days | 26.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | Season | 21.3% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | Road | 19.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 14.8% | L14Days | 7.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 16.6% | Season | 18.9% | 8.8% | 18.5% | 22.4% | Road | 17.8% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 18.9% | L14Days | 28.6% | 10.7% | 17.6% | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 12.0% | Season | 18.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 18.6% | Road | 17.7% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 12.5% | L14Days | 12.8% | 10.6% | 30.8% | 17.1% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 22.1% | Season | 20.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 27.0% | Home | 19.6% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 13.8% | L14Days | 21.4% | 4.8% | 25.8% | |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 15.2% | Season | 20.4% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 20.3% | Home | 25.2% | 8.6% | 18.8% | 8.8% | L14Days | 20.4% | 4.1% | 15.4% | 2.7% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 29.5% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 13.4% | Season | 33.3% | 4.5% | 11.2% | 7.9% | Home | 28.6% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 14.3% | L14Days | 39.0% | 2.4% | 30.8% | 12.5% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 16.1% | Season | 14.9% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 15.7% | Road | 12.8% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 22.2% | L14Days | 26.0% | 12.0% | 25.0% | 24.2% |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 14.9% | Season | 18.2% | 5.0% | 12.1% | 21.2% | Home | 20.6% | 6.9% | 13.3% | 19.8% | L14Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 61.1% | |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 26.4% | 8.3% | 16.8% | 18.2% | Season | 29.1% | 6.5% | 15.0% | 16.5% | Home | 29.6% | 6.4% | 17.6% | 14.0% | L14Days | 30.2% | 2.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 7.0% | 14.4% | 17.5% | Season | 31.0% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 24.2% | Road | 24.9% | 7.2% | 18.1% | 15.6% | L14Days | 34.7% | 9.4% | ||
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 5.1% | 12.6% | 16.5% | Season | 22.8% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 13.2% | Road | 21.1% | 5.9% | 13.3% | 20.5% | L14Days | 28.0% | 6.0% | 25.0% | 40.6% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 15.5% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 13.7% | Season | 15.5% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 13.7% | Road | 14.4% | 8.7% | 5.0% | L14Days | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | -2.1% | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 14.8% | Season | 16.3% | 8.4% | 15.9% | 17.3% | Home | 19.7% | 10.0% | 17.6% | 15.5% | L14Days | 16.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 25.0% |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 28.2% | Season | 23.1% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 28.2% | Road | 25.7% | 13.1% | 5.7% | 26.9% | L14Days | 32.6% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 40.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 13.2% | Season | 13.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 17.7% | Home | 15.7% | 9.5% | 17.1% | 16.6% | L14Days | 12.0% | 10.0% | 18.8% | 15.3% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 24.2% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 18.5% | LH | 21.2% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 20.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 19.5% |
| Mets | Road | 21.9% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 19.4% | RH | 21.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 16.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 26.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.4% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 18.2% | LH | 22.3% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 20.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.0% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 12.7% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 15.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.6% | 2.2% | -0.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.5% | 7.0% | 15.1% | 18.5% | LH | 26.5% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 34.2% | 5.7% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| Angels | Road | 19.9% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 17.3% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 20.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 24.1% |
| Reds | Home | 22.7% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 24.5% | RH | 21.2% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 19.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 22.0% |
| Astros | Home | 20.2% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 10.9% | RH | 19.9% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 15.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 11.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.3% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 24.4% | LH | 21.0% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 23.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 5.8% | 21.0% | 26.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 17.2% | RH | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 16.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 12.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.6% | 10.6% | 18.6% | 21.2% | RH | 22.6% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 18.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.7% | 21.1% | 13.3% |
| Rays | Road | 22.9% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 15.6% | LH | 23.7% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 18.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | -0.6% |
| Padres | Home | 25.1% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 18.6% | RH | 25.7% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 16.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.9% | 19.6% | -2.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.0% | 7.0% | 13.5% | 19.5% | RH | 19.6% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 12.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.9% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 26.3% | LH | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 26.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 43.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 21.5% | RH | 21.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 21.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 20.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.3% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 9.9% | LH | 22.2% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 29.2% | 8.1% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | RH | 20.7% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 13.9% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 11.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.9% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 15.2% | RH | 20.3% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 13.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 24.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 13.9% | LH | 20.6% | 9.0% | 15.3% | 22.9% | L7Days | 23.2% | 5.6% | 15.1% | 31.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.1% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 17.4% | RH | 23.2% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 15.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 23.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 23.9% | RH | 22.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 17.9% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 27.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.4% | 7.1% | 12.5% | 18.5% | RH | 19.9% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 15.0% | L7Days | 16.2% | 4.9% | 13.6% | 16.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.4% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 19.4% | RH | 18.7% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 19.2% | L7Days | 15.6% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.4% | 10.3% | 15.8% | 23.4% | LH | 23.3% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 16.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.2% | 19.0% | 11.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.7% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 8.1% | RH | 25.6% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 14.4% |
| Royals | Home | 20.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 24.5% | LH | 23.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 16.8% |
| Indians | Road | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 19.8% | RH | 19.3% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 25.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 18.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.8% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 20.2% | RH | 20.5% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 18.4% | L7Days | 16.6% | 6.2% | 15.4% | 21.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 18.1% | RH | 23.6% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 20.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 4.3% | 13.2% | 25.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 20.9% | 10.8% | 1.94 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 2.13 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 16.6% | 6.9% | 2.41 | 7.9% | 5.8% | 1.36 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 20.8% | 7.0% | 2.97 | 16.0% | 5.7% | 2.81 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 24.4% | 9.7% | 2.52 | 26.5% | 10.2% | 2.60 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 17.8% | 8.6% | 2.07 | 16.7% | 9.9% | 1.69 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 13.0% | 14.9% | 0.87 | 13.0% | 14.9% | 0.87 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 24.7% | 10.8% | 2.29 | 19.4% | 10.2% | 1.90 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 24.9% | 10.9% | 2.28 | 30.6% | 15.0% | 2.04 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.22 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.20 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 13.6% | 6.6% | 2.06 | 15.9% | 7.1% | 2.24 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 26.8% | 15.6% | 1.72 | 32.8% | 17.3% | 1.90 |
| J.A. Happ | Yankees | 27.0% | 10.6% | 2.55 | 30.3% | 14.0% | 2.16 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 17.6% | 11.0% | 1.60 | 13.3% | 10.3% | 1.29 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 22.8% | 10.6% | 2.15 | 18.1% | 9.0% | 2.01 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 31.4% | 13.8% | 2.28 | 26.0% | 13.9% | 1.87 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 21.3% | 10.2% | 2.09 | 13.9% | 10.1% | 1.38 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 18.9% | 10.8% | 1.75 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 1.95 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 18.8% | 8.5% | 2.21 | 20.4% | 6.7% | 3.04 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.72 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 1.78 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 20.4% | 7.4% | 2.76 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 4.00 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 33.3% | 13.8% | 2.41 | 40.7% | 17.1% | 2.38 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 14.9% | 8.0% | 1.86 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 2.40 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 18.2% | 8.5% | 2.14 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 2.37 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 29.1% | 12.0% | 2.43 | 37.0% | 12.5% | 2.96 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 31.0% | 14.9% | 2.08 | 29.6% | 16.6% | 1.78 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.8% | 8.4% | 2.71 | 25.8% | 7.3% | 3.53 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 15.5% | 6.7% | 2.31 | 10.7% | 5.6% | 1.91 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 16.3% | 7.8% | 2.09 | 15.7% | 10.2% | 1.54 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 23.1% | 9.8% | 2.36 | 28.3% | 12.9% | 2.19 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 13.7% | 5.5% | 2.49 | 12.8% | 5.1% | 2.51 |
Blaine Hardy has a double digit SwStr% in each of his last two starts.
John Gant has been above a 13 SwStr% in four of 10 starts and below 8.5% in four as well, as mentioned above.
Justin Verlander has a 40.7 K% and 17.1 SwStr% over the last month despite his last outing.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 3.58 | 3.91 | 0.33 | 3.58 | 0.14 | 3.54 | -0.04 | 3.21 | -0.37 | 2.28 | 4.66 | 2.38 | 4.55 | 2.27 | 3.58 | 1.30 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.83 | 5.01 | 0.18 | 4.83 | 0.01 | 4.87 | 0.04 | 6.41 | 1.58 | 6.20 | 5.87 | -0.33 | 5.65 | -0.55 | 4.58 | -1.62 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 4.64 | 3.80 | -0.84 | 4.64 | -1.12 | 4.15 | -0.49 | 3.35 | -1.29 | 7.43 | 4.49 | -2.94 | 4.13 | -3.30 | 5.93 | -1.50 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 2.83 | 3.86 | 1.03 | 2.83 | 1.05 | 3.73 | 0.90 | 2.93 | 0.10 | 3.54 | 3.64 | 0.10 | 3.32 | -0.22 | 3.94 | 0.40 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 3.63 | 4.46 | 0.83 | 3.63 | 0.94 | 4.13 | 0.50 | 4.38 | 0.75 | 4.22 | 4.51 | 0.29 | 4.4 | 0.18 | 4.38 | 0.16 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 13.50 | 4.72 | -8.78 | 13.50 | -8.55 | 11.41 | -2.09 | 4.66 | -8.84 | 13.50 | 4.72 | -8.78 | 4.95 | -8.55 | 11.41 | -2.09 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.74 | 3.32 | 0.58 | 2.74 | 0.47 | 3.36 | 0.62 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 2.63 | 3.89 | 1.26 | 3.87 | 1.24 | 3.01 | 0.38 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 4.69 | 3.75 | -0.94 | 4.69 | -1.14 | 4.16 | -0.53 | 3.76 | -0.93 | 4.21 | 2.95 | -1.26 | 2.48 | -1.73 | 3.04 | -1.17 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 3.89 | 4.61 | 0.72 | 3.89 | 0.37 | 4.17 | 0.28 | 4.02 | 0.13 | 4.63 | 5.17 | 0.54 | 4.65 | 0.02 | 4.91 | 0.28 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 3.13 | 5.24 | 2.11 | 3.13 | 1.80 | 4.52 | 1.39 | 6.51 | 3.38 | 2.91 | 5.02 | 2.11 | 4.62 | 1.71 | 3.85 | 0.94 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 3.91 | 3.79 | -0.12 | 3.91 | -0.35 | 3.87 | -0.04 | 1.91 | -2.00 | 5.02 | 3.52 | -1.50 | 2.78 | -2.24 | 3.78 | -1.24 |
| J.A. Happ | Yankees | 4.07 | 3.53 | -0.54 | 4.07 | -0.34 | 3.93 | -0.14 | 4.08 | 0.01 | 2.65 | 2.83 | 0.18 | 3.43 | 0.78 | 3.22 | 0.57 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 3.59 | 4.63 | 1.04 | 3.59 | 1.18 | 4.80 | 1.21 | 5.44 | 1.85 | 3.74 | 5.15 | 1.41 | 5.16 | 1.42 | 4.68 | 0.94 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.50 | 4.45 | -0.05 | 4.50 | 0.32 | 4.51 | 0.01 | 6.03 | 1.53 | 4.26 | 4.58 | 0.32 | 4.97 | 0.71 | 3.74 | -0.52 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 3.63 | 3.04 | -0.59 | 3.63 | -0.54 | 3.05 | -0.58 | 2.64 | -0.99 | 3.20 | 3.37 | 0.17 | 3.32 | 0.12 | 2.39 | -0.81 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 3.63 | 3.90 | 0.27 | 3.63 | 0.07 | 3.52 | -0.11 | 3.32 | -0.31 | 2.57 | 4.51 | 1.94 | 4.13 | 1.56 | 3.12 | 0.55 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 8.75 | 4.74 | -4.01 | 8.75 | -3.69 | 6.09 | -2.66 | 5.63 | -3.12 | 9.31 | 4.78 | -4.53 | 4.96 | -4.35 | 4.09 | -5.22 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 3.91 | 4.68 | 0.77 | 3.91 | 0.68 | 4.27 | 0.36 | 4.94 | 1.03 | 4.45 | 3.91 | -0.54 | 4.1 | -0.35 | 5.80 | 1.35 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 3.89 | 4.61 | 0.72 | 3.89 | 0.64 | 3.96 | 0.07 | 3.42 | -0.47 | 4.07 | 4.75 | 0.68 | 4.56 | 0.49 | 4.47 | 0.40 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 4.28 | 4.67 | 0.39 | 4.28 | 0.15 | 4.62 | 0.34 | 4.99 | 0.71 | 5.64 | 4.77 | -0.87 | 4.6 | -1.04 | 4.50 | -1.14 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 2.50 | 2.78 | 0.28 | 2.50 | 0.77 | 3.02 | 0.52 | 2.32 | -0.18 | 4.73 | 1.89 | -2.84 | 1.64 | -3.09 | 5.03 | 0.30 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 6.23 | 5.71 | -0.52 | 6.23 | -0.29 | 6.00 | -0.23 | 7.21 | 0.98 | 5.02 | 4.53 | -0.49 | 4.5 | -0.52 | 4.76 | -0.26 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 3.40 | 4.40 | 1.00 | 3.40 | 1.28 | 4.57 | 1.17 | 4.84 | 1.44 | 1.83 | 3.89 | 2.06 | 4 | 2.17 | 3.97 | 2.14 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 4.51 | 3.21 | -1.30 | 4.51 | -1.33 | 3.47 | -1.04 | 2.94 | -1.57 | 4.24 | 2.17 | -2.07 | 2.18 | -2.06 | 2.30 | -1.94 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 3.15 | 2.89 | -0.26 | 3.15 | -0.56 | 2.46 | -0.69 | 2.80 | -0.35 | 3.34 | 2.41 | -0.93 | 2.06 | -1.28 | 1.15 | -2.19 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 4.17 | 3.80 | -0.37 | 4.17 | -0.28 | 3.81 | -0.36 | 4.17 | 0.00 | 4.38 | 3.42 | -0.96 | 3.46 | -0.92 | 3.97 | -0.41 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 2.81 | 4.72 | 1.91 | 2.81 | 1.74 | 2.97 | 0.16 | 4.56 | 1.75 | 2.16 | 5.08 | 2.92 | 4.93 | 2.77 | 3.28 | 1.12 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 4.94 | 4.85 | -0.09 | 4.94 | -0.25 | 5.15 | 0.21 | 5.51 | 0.57 | 3.20 | 4.76 | 1.56 | 5.01 | 1.81 | 4.07 | 0.87 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 3.98 | 4.39 | 0.41 | 3.98 | 0.43 | 3.70 | -0.28 | 3.68 | -0.30 | 1.53 | 3.55 | 2.02 | 3.74 | 2.21 | 2.88 | 1.35 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 6.11 | 5.52 | -0.59 | 6.11 | -0.89 | 5.38 | -0.73 | 6.80 | 0.69 | 2.78 | 6.12 | 3.34 | 5.56 | 2.78 | 5.54 | 2.76 |
Anibal Sanchez has a .243 BABIP and 79.8 LOB%.
Blaine Hardy has a .273 BABIP and 9.9 HR/FB, neither of which is too egregious.
Corey Kluber has a .252 BABIP and a 10.9% unearned run rate.
German Marquez has a .319 BABIP and 18.2 HR/FB because Coors. He’s not even really removed much from his defense by BABIP (see below).
James Paxton doesn’t…have…anything wrong with BABIP, strand rate or HR/FB. I can’t immediately tell you why his ERA is a half run above his estimators, though I’m guessing it has something to do with all the hard contact.
John Gant has a .242 BABIP and 8.5 HR/FB, but has somehow turned that into a 63.1 LOB% and also has an 18.9% unearned run rate.
Justin Verlander has a .264 BABIP, which is completely fine considering the profile below. It’s the 86.5 LOB% we need to take some slight umbrage with, though he’s one of few pitchers I’m okay with above 80% considering the BABIP profile and K%.
Nick Pivetta has a .339 BABIP. His 69.8 LOB% and 15 HR/FB are close enough to league average that we won’t further pursue. Let’s talk some more about that BABIP though.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.287 | 0.284 | -0.003 | 47.3% | 23.1% | 4.6% | 88.3% | 32.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.315 | 0.309 | -0.006 | 42.3% | 23.4% | 8.3% | 91.1% | 38.0% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.295 | 0.324 | 0.029 | 50.3% | 22.0% | 6.5% | 90.9% | 35.4% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.281 | 0.243 | -0.038 | 42.9% | 18.6% | 8.0% | 84.7% | 36.1% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.273 | -0.017 | 42.7% | 16.9% | 8.8% | 88.6% | 32.5% |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 0.305 | 0.471 | 0.166 | 33.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 82.4% | 42.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.293 | 0.252 | -0.041 | 44.8% | 20.9% | 9.9% | 89.8% | 31.9% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.301 | 0.319 | 0.018 | 47.8% | 22.0% | 7.3% | 87.4% | 36.9% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.291 | 0.310 | 0.019 | 49.2% | 21.2% | 8.3% | 86.3% | 35.4% |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 0.312 | 0.250 | -0.062 | 50.4% | 20.9% | 15.2% | 93.3% | 37.0% |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.276 | 0.364 | 0.088 | 47.8% | 23.9% | 10.5% | 76.6% | 35.4% |
| J.A. Happ | Yankees | 0.288 | 0.274 | -0.014 | 43.5% | 15.9% | 15.6% | 85.4% | 41.5% |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.291 | 0.263 | -0.028 | 40.2% | 18.8% | 11.9% | 83.9% | 35.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.308 | 0.306 | -0.002 | 28.6% | 23.3% | 15.2% | 84.6% | 40.3% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0.000 | 39.6% | 19.9% | 10.1% | 82.0% | 35.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 48.8% | 21.0% | 5.9% | 85.7% | 34.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.301 | 0.369 | 0.068 | 34.4% | 24.2% | 7.7% | 83.8% | 30.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.278 | 0.256 | -0.022 | 43.2% | 22.0% | 7.2% | 89.8% | 35.1% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.242 | -0.044 | 45.3% | 19.4% | 9.9% | 83.6% | 38.6% |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.280 | 0.278 | -0.002 | 42.9% | 22.3% | 7.5% | 89.5% | 35.1% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.280 | 0.264 | -0.016 | 29.9% | 17.4% | 13.7% | 79.7% | 36.1% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.259 | -0.031 | 41.5% | 17.6% | 10.6% | 88.4% | 39.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 0.275 | 0.277 | 0.002 | 38.3% | 17.3% | 12.6% | 87.9% | 36.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.294 | 0.339 | 0.045 | 45.3% | 18.3% | 9.7% | 84.1% | 34.7% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.297 | 0.013 | 49.0% | 24.1% | 6.1% | 83.4% | 28.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.289 | -0.002 | 45.0% | 19.7% | 8.7% | 89.5% | 35.6% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.308 | 0.319 | 0.011 | 46.5% | 19.5% | 14.8% | 92.9% | 28.7% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.297 | 0.274 | -0.023 | 44.6% | 21.7% | 11.4% | 91.7% | 36.6% |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.295 | 0.312 | 0.017 | 36.7% | 24.5% | 6.5% | 87.6% | 34.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.300 | 0.287 | -0.013 | 44.8% | 21.8% | 5.2% | 94.0% | 38.9% |
Anibal Sanchez has a strong defense, low line drive rate and overall fine profile. The best aEV on the board no doubt plays into this as well, but it may be a bit too low. I might not expect full regression though.
Corey Kluber has a fine BABIP profile, but nothing stands out that should supported a depressed rate.
John Gant has a low Z-Contact%, but not enough in his profile to support such a low BABIP.
Nick Pivetta has a fine profile. There is nothing that would suggest an elevated BABIP and he even has a low line drive rate. The defense is questionable, but still isn’t much worse than league average in terms of BABIP allowed. There’s absolutely no support for this, unless…
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.307 | -0.022 | 0.295 | -0.009 | 0.308 | -0.041 | -0.300 | 87.6 | 5.1 | 34.200 | 371 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.367 | -0.014 | 0.343 | -0.019 | 0.372 | -0.043 | -1.700 | 88.5 | 6.9 | 35.000 | 389 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.344 | -0.010 | 0.349 | 0.019 | 0.404 | -0.010 | -2.000 | 89.1 | 7.1 | 38.500 | 338 |
| Anibal Sanchez | Braves | 0.291 | -0.014 | 0.295 | 0.018 | 0.291 | -0.010 | 0.100 | 84.4 | 5.6 | 28.000 | 232 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.306 | -0.004 | 0.326 | 0.003 | 0.307 | -0.038 | -0.300 | 87.5 | 6.1 | 36.700 | 229 |
| Brett Kennedy | Padres | 0.471 | 0.155 | 0.471 | 0.155 | 0.400 | ||||||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.293 | -0.033 | 0.302 | -0.032 | 0.294 | -0.028 | -0.300 | 87.4 | 7.2 | 33.300 | 445 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.302 | 0.026 | 0.308 | 0.004 | 0.288 | 0.027 | -1.600 | 88.4 | 5.9 | 38.400 | 370 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.334 | -0.009 | 0.297 | -0.010 | 0.393 | -0.051 | -0.900 | 87.1 | 5.6 | 33.200 | 374 |
| Heath Fillmyer | Royals | 0.314 | -0.029 | 0.275 | -0.055 | 0.316 | -0.036 | -0.500 | 87.7 | 2.6 | 29.600 | 115 |
| Hunter Wood | Rays | 0.285 | 0.061 | 0.275 | 0.062 | 0.313 | 0.096 | -0.900 | 85.1 | 1.4 | 21.700 | 69 |
| J.A. Happ | Yankees | 0.309 | -0.015 | 0.314 | -0.003 | 0.329 | -0.079 | -0.700 | 88.2 | 9.2 | 35.100 | 336 |
| Jaime Barria | Angels | 0.347 | -0.031 | 0.362 | -0.021 | 0.280 | 0.020 | -1.200 | 88.7 | 7.5 | 34.300 | 268 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.350 | -0.009 | 0.340 | -0.001 | 0.353 | -0.019 | -1.000 | 88.1 | 9.1 | 38.700 | 351 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.294 | -0.013 | 0.293 | -0.009 | 0.249 | 0.027 | -0.400 | 89 | 8.4 | 40.300 | 345 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.294 | 0.004 | 0.298 | 0.002 | 0.323 | -0.016 | -0.100 | 87.3 | 4.0 | 33.000 | 400 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.374 | 0.043 | 0.357 | 0.001 | 0.382 | -0.006 | -0.800 | 85.7 | 8.7 | 29.800 | 161 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.331 | -0.034 | 0.331 | 0.004 | 0.297 | -0.014 | -1.400 | 87.2 | 5.9 | 36.300 | 408 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.313 | -0.037 | 0.308 | -0.037 | 0.324 | -0.023 | -0.300 | 88.3 | 4.4 | 38.700 | 204 |
| Jose Quintana | Cubs | 0.343 | -0.020 | 0.322 | 0.007 | 0.369 | -0.052 | 0.200 | 88.5 | 6.2 | 39.200 | 355 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.249 | 0.016 | 0.286 | -0.021 | 0.289 | 0.095 | -1.100 | 88.1 | 6.6 | 32.300 | 378 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.378 | -0.026 | 0.371 | -0.044 | 0.350 | -0.033 | -0.100 | 89.1 | 7.6 | 38.900 | 396 |
| Mike Fiers | Athletics | 0.348 | -0.029 | 0.357 | -0.031 | 0.387 | -0.083 | -0.800 | 88.9 | 9.8 | 37.100 | 396 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.303 | 0.016 | 0.300 | 0.020 | 0.247 | 0.053 | 0.200 | 87.7 | 8.4 | 35.300 | 320 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.289 | -0.029 | 0.318 | 0.004 | 0.257 | -0.014 | -0.400 | 88.1 | 5.7 | 36.400 | 368 |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 0.325 | -0.024 | 0.334 | -0.018 | 0.381 | -0.044 | -0.700 | 88.7 | 7.0 | 36.900 | 426 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.326 | -0.020 | 0.324 | -0.017 | 0.334 | -0.011 | -0.300 | 87.4 | 6.2 | 32.900 | 161 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.353 | -0.018 | 0.324 | 0.015 | 0.311 | -0.029 | -1.000 | 87.9 | 7.8 | 34.800 | 399 |
| Trevor Richards | Marlins | 0.336 | -0.018 | 0.332 | 0.008 | 0.304 | -0.057 | 0.100 | 87.9 | 6.2 | 38.600 | 241 |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 0.362 | -0.011 | 0.360 | -0.010 | 0.330 | -0.032 | -0.600 | 87.5 | 4.6 | 36.000 | 175 |
Anibal Sanchez has had a massive turnaround just by changing a few sinkers into cutters. Who had him for a better xwOBA and similar strikeout rate to Corey Kluber at this point in the season?
James Paxton illustrates that in order to keep an xwOBA below .300 with a high rate of hard contact, one needs a strikeout rate above 30%.
Nick Pivetta has a league average exit velocity. His rate of Barrels is a bit high, but that goes more with his HR rate. It shouldn’t really be affecting his BABIP negatively. He has a .303 xwOBA. Again, no support for the elevated BABIP.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Very different from yesterday, tonight we have several high strikeout pitchers, some at interesting prices. Even though I’m omitting Corbin due to the tough matchup, I still have him as a top five overall arm.
Value Tier One
German Marquez (4) is one fire (from a swing and miss standpoint at least) and goes from the most positive run environment to the most negative tonight. The matchup is not as scary as it looks with current lineup construction for the Astros.
Value Tier Two
Justin Verlander (1) is the most expensive pitcher on either site, but not ridiculously so. I completely expect him to bounce back from a freak outing in a tremendous spot at home tonight.
Value Tier Three
Nick Pivetta is in a horrendous spot today, but It’s $8K or less for a pitcher with a 37 K% and .247 xwOBA over the last month. He could get hammered, but that doesn’t mean he’s not undervalued here. There’s no support at all for his elevated BABIP and the matchup improves if it’s not Bradley that sits. I’m not the ownership guy, but I wouldn’t expect anyone to be on him tonight.
James Paxton (2) struck out 16 A’s the last time he faced them, and only time this season. Not that this should be expected again, but it’s really a matchup that favors him as a reverse platoon pitcher against a predominantly right-handed lineup that’s had more success against RHP. They’re certainly not bad against southpaws though. The top of this lineup is still dangerous.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
John Gant is cheap with some interesting numbers in a great park, but the Nationals aren’t really going to give him much.
Anibal Sanchez could be higher on this list, but I’ll leave him here for any concern about the calf issue that caused an early exit last time out.
Blaine Hardy has been somewhat competent and is in a great spot tonight at a reasonably low price.
Corey Kluber (3) is expensive and not nearly what he was last year, but he’s still a quality pitcher by any metric, going deep into games and in a reasonable spot.
Trevor Richards has had an impressive uptick in peripherals over the last month, though his contact management has declined. That’s not great news with a park downgrade against a contact prone team, but he’s still cheap enough ($7.5K or less) where I might be interested.
J.A. Happ has a high enough strikeout rate that he can’t be ignored in this spot at a reasonable price (around $9K), but there are some red flags here. He does allow some hard contact in the air, dangerous for this park, and his peripherals are not very good against the Rays this year, an offense designed to perform against his skill set.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.