Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, July 19th
It looks like I picked a bad week to alter the writing process as one day after I’ve attempted to commit to focusing more intensely on fewer pitchers, baseball throws me three guys that aren’t even in my database in addition to a few more who haven’t pitched in the majors in a while. I’m not alone though. It appears DraftKings and FanDuel don’t know who these guys either as a full one-third (10) of tonight’s pitchers have a gap of at least $1.8K in cost between the sites. There’s certainly a lot of work ahead of us.
Jake Arrieta and Cody Reed are among the featured pitchers today. Let’s see how the format works.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 4.5 | 3.83 | 6.35 | 2.82 | 1.07 | 3.63 | 4.79 | ARI | 93 | 92 | 83 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | -8.4 | 4.14 | 5.84 | 1.07 | 1.01 | 4.55 | 4.27 | MIN | 93 | 90 | 35 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -6.6 | 5.02 | 5.2 | 1.27 | 1.37 | 4.5 | 3.03 | COL | 106 | 88 | 75 |
| Brian Flynn | KAN | 5.9 | 3.42 | 4. | 2.25 | 1.04 | 3.08 | 1.92 | CLE | 84 | 89 | 100 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -6.7 | 3.57 | 6.09 | 2.14 | 0.97 | 3.52 | 2.72 | SDG | 88 | 81 | 120 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | -1 | 3.81 | 4.84 | 1.77 | 1.02 | 3.23 | 4.34 | ATL | 73 | 74 | 84 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | -5.2 | 4.58 | 5.36 | 1.47 | 0.97 | 5.29 | 5.44 | STL | 105 | 117 | 129 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 8.1 | 3.17 | 6.82 | 2.98 | 0.95 | 3.59 | 3.41 | OAK | 87 | 98 | 140 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 9 | 3.48 | 6.08 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 3.72 | 3.69 | KAN | 110 | 90 | 89 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | -9.3 | 7.27 | 4.1 | 0.35 | 0.95 | 12.72 | HOU | 101 | 91 | 101 | |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 8.6 | 3.02 | 6.69 | 2.17 | 1.03 | 2.77 | 3.55 | NYM | 90 | 96 | 87 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 7.8 | 4.35 | 5.78 | 0.83 | 1.07 | 4.7 | 4.76 | BOS | 121 | 118 | 71 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -0.9 | 3.75 | 5.6 | 2.32 | 0.95 | 4.23 | MIL | 82 | 85 | 74 | |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 1.8 | 3.71 | 6.43 | 1.29 | 0.9 | 3.82 | 3.78 | SEA | 113 | 97 | 81 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 3.4 | 5.21 | 5.12 | 1.61 | 1.02 | 4.96 | PHI | 64 | 82 | 20 | |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -5.6 | 4.13 | 6.32 | 1.22 | 0.95 | 4.04 | 4.22 | PIT | 114 | 99 | 33 |
| Kyle Lohse | TEX | 8.7 | 4.51 | 5.72 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 4.22 | 6.07 | ANA | 102 | 100 | 112 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.9 | 4.03 | 5.7 | 1.82 | 1.02 | 3.81 | 5.74 | BAL | 102 | 114 | 58 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -4.9 | 2.83 | 6.2 | 1.59 | 1.03 | 3.04 | 4.77 | CHC | 101 | 103 | 52 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 2.6 | 3.72 | 6.24 | 1.45 | 1.07 | 3.71 | 4.06 | SFO | 96 | 104 | 79 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0 | 4.08 | 5.7 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 4.48 | 4.76 | WAS | 96 | 115 | 62 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 3.8 | 4.63 | 4.86 | 1.45 | 0.92 | 4.34 | 3.95 | TEX | 89 | 90 | 39 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | -5.5 | 4.54 | 5.17 | 1.31 | 1.01 | 4.31 | 5.06 | DET | 110 | 100 | 85 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 1.6 | 4.62 | 5.95 | 2.44 | 1.37 | 4.26 | 5.76 | TAM | 103 | 90 | 92 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | ATL | 0.7 | 5.19 | 4.2 | 2.25 | 1.02 | 4.22 | 3.99 | CIN | 82 | 79 | 85 |
| Vance Worley | BAL | -4.3 | 4 | 5.87 | 1.63 | 1.02 | 4.2 | 3.16 | NYY | 94 | 88 | 58 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | -3.8 | 3.58 | 5.28 | 0.78 | 1.02 | 3.41 | 4.14 | FLA | 103 | 97 | 72 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | -6.1 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 1.64 | 0.9 | 3.84 | 4.43 | CHW | 85 | 98 | 44 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -7 | 4.4 | 5.03 | 1.59 | 1.07 | 3.99 | 5.8 | TOR | 100 | 106 | 89 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.02 | LOS | 91 | 98 | 140 |
Anibal Sanchez is has allowed 12 ERs in 8.1 innings since returning to the rotation. He’s also struck out 12 of 43 batters and has a near league average strikeout rate on the season. He has a 10.5 BB% and 33.3 Hard%, but he’s not in a bad spot. The Twins have a 24.8 K% on the road and marginal power against RHP (11.5 HR/FB).
Brian Flynn missed all of 2015 to injury and has started just four of 23 appearances this year, none in the majors. He does have a 23.8 K% and 13.0 SwStr% out of the bullpen this year and has three outings for the Royals lasting three innings or more. Expect those numbers to suffer in a starting role and his hard contact rate is 34.7%, but Cleveland is a poor offense both on the road and vs LHP (7.9 HR/FB).
Carlos Martinez has struck out 18 of his last 51 batters with a season high 11 in his last start, but before you get too excited, it was against the Brewers. It’s still hardly bad news for a pitcher who’s strikeout rate has dipped this year as he hung a lower ERA this year on a 79.9 LOB% and BABIP 46 points lower than last year. He does have the second highest GB rate in baseball though (58.7%), and is facing an offense that strikes out a quarter of the time on the road and vs RHP.
Cody Reed has been the pitching version of Adam Dunn, an actual three true outcomes pitcher as 40% of the batters he’s faced have either struck out walked or homered. Unfortunately, nine of his 22 fly balls have left the yard. Cincinnati is a tough park and he has a 42.5% hard contact rate, but that’s a number that’s primed for regression just by plain stupid luck. He has a 40.9 HR/FB!! He’s also missing a lot of bats, which he also did in the minors while not having much of a HR problem. Even better, he’s in a great spot tonight, against an offense with no power (7.5 HR/FB vs LHP).
Dallas Keuchel has been getting much better results over the last month. He had been trending back towards last year’s form for a while now even if not quite as dominant. His 57.4 GB% is fifth best in the majors, though they’ve been hit a bit hard this year and he continues to allow HRs at a much higher pace, but despite a small drop in strikeouts over the last month, his SwStr% is actually a bit higher. I’m expecting him to meet his estimators for the rest of the season, which aren’t nearly as good as last year, but still an above average pitcher. His strikeouts might take a hit tonight in Oakland, but the run prevention should be there and the park should even help him out with his little HR problem. The A’s have a 10.1 HR/FB at home.
Jake Arrieta has allowed 15 runs in 16.1 innings over his last three starts, striking out 14 of 78 batters (17.9%), walking eight and allowing four of his seven HRs. His ground ball rate is down to 41.8% with a 39.3 Hard% over that span. As a pitcher with a high strikeout rate, but also a high walk rate, whose dominance really came through being a league leader in weak ground balls, these are all significant problems. His velocity had dipped in his previous two starts, but was back up last time out in Pittsburgh in which his peripherals were best, so that’s a good sign. He had his biggest issue with control in the Mets game two starts back where he just wasn’t able to throw a strike at all, but batters are not only hitting balls harder, but the Pull% is way up with only 12.5% of batted balls going to the opposite field. His Z-Contact is up to 88.8%. This really might be all about his control. Batters are waiting and squaring him up. Whiffs on his slider are down over the last month because batters aren’t swinging at it because they realize they don’t have to. Have they figured him out? Probably not. The stuff is still too good, but adjustments are going to need to be made. He needs to throw more strikes. Maybe he already made them over the break. The Mets are a slightly below average offense with some power in their current state, but they will strike out a bit more than average.
Jameson Taillon has been held to under 100 pitches in each of his five starts, but did get 95 pitches last time out with his highest SwStr rate (8.4%). That’s still below average and doesn’t match up with his 18.8 K% so far, but he did miss bats at an above average rate in the minors and hasn’t walked many with a ground ball rate a bit above 50% so far. The kicker here is a great spot against a Milwaukee offense with a 26.2 K% vs RHP in a park that should punish their moderate power vs RHP.
Noah Syndergaard said he had a dead arm in his last start as his velocity just suddenly dropped. He missed the All Star game, but proclaims his arm feels like new now. He’s lied to the press before because that’s how the Mets direct him to treat those prying bastards. What choice do we have but to believe him today? In between struggling starts against the Nationals, he did dominate this Chicago lineup two starts back, striking out eight of 27 batters with one run in seven innings. Is a bit less favorable a spot in their home park, but not a lineup he can’t navigate if healthy.
Vincent Velasquez has a 28.6 K% with a 13.7 SwStr% in three starts since returning from the DL. Perhaps just as importantly, he’s walked just four allowing the same amount of runs in 17 innings with two of those starts coming in Arizona and Colorado. He obviously has upside, though expectations went through the roof after his domination of the Padres in April. Things have since settled down a bit and perhaps this is what we can expect from him when he’s throwing strikes with his walk rate now down to 8%, giving him a 20.5 K-BB%, which would be just above teammate Aaron Nola for ninth best in baseball if he hadn’t missed a few weeks. The Marlins are about as marginal a spot as you can get with surprisingly little power vs RHP (9.7 HR/FB).
Reynaldo Lopez is a highly rated prospect (fourth in the Washington system via fangraphs), who hadn’t even seen AA before this season, but had a 22.8 K-BB% in 76.1 innings there before a less impressive 6.4 K-BB% in just 11 AAA innings. The stuff is great, but like most young pitchers, command has been an issue and our biggest concern would be limitations placed on him as he’s averaged fewer than six innings this year, but has pitched seven innings in three of his last six. The Dodgers are a fairly neutral opponent here as their performance has improved recently to where their average peripherals already were.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Danny Salazar (.269 – 82.6% – 9.8) is a price tag casualty. He leads the AL with a 27.6 K%, but has gone less than six innings in half his starts with fewer than seven strikeouts in three of his last four. While his upside is immense, the risk is not covering his double digit price tag often enough.
Junior Guerra (.242 – 78.8% – 10.8) has been good from a bat missing perspective, but has a 36.0% hard hit rate, which should probably lead to more damage than has been done to him with. The Pirates don’t have a ton of power in a tough park, but are a well-disciplined offense that should make him work and could take advantage of his sometimes questionable control.
Aaron Sanchez (.281 – 78.3% – 13.9) generates great contact (56.6 GB%, 6.4 Hard-Soft%), but has struck out no more than four in four straight starts. Although his SwStr% over that span projects for a few more, there may not be enough upside in his arm to cover $9K or more in marginal spots or worse, which this happens to be in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have a 16.7 HR/FB and 20.5 Hard-Soft% at home.
Tyler Chatwood (.276 – 73.8% – 8.6) also has four unearned runs, which is just a bit more than 10% of his total, but none of this really matters when pitching in Colorado with a strikeout rate below 15%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Vance Worley hasn’t started a game since April, but has gone at least three innings in several relief outings. He doesn’t miss any bats, but for $4.7K on DraftKings, maybe he can get a poor Yankees’ offense to look at enough strikes to cover his cost. A 27.4 Hard% and 13.0 HR/FB vs RHP just shows the ridiculousness of that RF porch.
Wade Miley is one of several pitchers on this list that you can take a chance on as a secondary option on DraftKings at a low price. He’s in a great spot against the White Sox on the road (10.2 HR/FB), who strike out more than 22% of the time against LHP as well. The issue here is that his strikeout rate has plummeted while he’s still giving up too many HRs with nine of his 15 at home because Safeco is now a power friendly park to RHBs somehow.
Tim Lincecum might make some sense for just $5.1K on DraftKings because his SwStr% is impressive and been at least 11.8% in each of his last four starts, while he takes on a struggling offense tonight. They did do some damage to a similar type pitcher last night though and he’s obviously not without major flaws, having allowed a HR in four straight starts, lasting less than five innings in three of them.
Jose Quintana has shown a small ability to suppress HRs throughout his career and then June happened. He has twice allowed three HRs in a start over his last six starts with 10 of his 12 HRs this season coming in that span, with a 22.4 Hard-Soft% over that span. It’s difficult to recommend a struggling pitcher at a high price against this Seattle team at home (16.8 HR/FB at home, 16.7 HR/FB vs LHP).
Rick Porcello has some questions regarding his strikeout rate, which has dipped as might have been expected recently and faces a very contact prone offense tonight.
Jose Urena has today’s best matchup, but also has a 1.3 K-BB% through 82 career innings and has a 12.4 BB% at AAA this season.
Scott Kazmir has been incredibly inconsistent with all of the three true outcomes. He’s been Cole Hamels without the bloated strand rate and faces one of the toughest offense vs LHP (35.3 Hard%, 16.7 HR/FB).
Tyrell Jenkins had been labelled a weak contact generator as the 19th best prospect via fangraphs prior to the season and put up just a 7.6 K-BB% in 65 AAA innings with a 2.91 ERA to prove it. He has just a 24.5 Hard% in his first 14 major league innings, but struck out just one Phillie in his first start with a 0.0 K-BB% so far. The Reds are the second worst offense vs RHP, which I’m having trouble understanding because their numbers aren’t that bad and they do have a 14.8 HR/FB at home.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.3% | 9.1% | Road | 21.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 6.0% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.0% | Home | 19.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 14.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 18.8% | 11.8% | Road | 18.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Brian Flynn | Royals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 7.9% | Home | 27.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 5.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.2% | Home | 21.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 9.8% |
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Years | 24.0% | 8.3% | Home | 23.9% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 18.4% | 9.2% | Road | 18.0% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.1% | Road | 19.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 26.2% | 7.9% | Road | 26.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Dillon Overton | Athletics | L2 Years | 8.7% | 10.9% | Home | 5.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.8% | 6.7% | Home | 29.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 3.6% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.2% | Road | 21.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 18.4% | 4.4% | Home | 11.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.4% | Road | 20.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 10.7% | 9.4% | Road | 12.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 21.7% | 7.8% | Road | 22.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Kyle Lohse | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.8% | Road | 17.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.0% | Home | 18.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.7% | 4.8% | Road | 27.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 15.8% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.7% | 4.6% | Home | 21.2% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.1% | 8.1% | Road | 19.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 16.7% |
| Tim Lincecum | Angels | L2 Years | 17.5% | 10.4% | Home | 19.4% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | L2 Years | 15.8% | 7.3% | Road | 17.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 14.9% | 9.1% | Home | 12.1% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 14.3% |
| Tyrell Jenkins | Braves | L2 Years | 11.1% | 11.1% | Road | 4.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Vance Worley | Orioles | L2 Years | 16.9% | 6.4% | Road | 16.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 27.1% | 8.4% | Home | 30.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 17.7% | 8.2% | Home | 19.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.2% | 11.0% | Home | 19.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 12.5% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | Nationals | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.0% | 6.9% | RH | 23.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.0% |
| Twins | Road | 24.8% | 8.4% | RH | 21.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.8% | 9.1% | LH | 23.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.6% | 11.3% |
| Indians | Road | 21.7% | 6.9% | LH | 21.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 14.6% | 8.9% |
| Padres | Road | 25.4% | 7.0% | RH | 24.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 7.1% | LH | 20.7% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.4% | 8.8% | RH | 19.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.9% | 6.5% | LH | 18.0% | 5.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.5% |
| Royals | Home | 17.5% | 6.7% | RH | 20.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.7% |
| Astros | Road | 23.3% | 9.3% | LH | 23.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 4.7% |
| Mets | Road | 22.9% | 7.6% | RH | 22.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 15.8% | 6.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 9.6% | RH | 18.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.8% | 9.4% | RH | 26.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.2% | 9.0% | LH | 21.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 28.8% | 12.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.0% | 6.7% | RH | 21.3% | 6.5% | L7Days | 28.8% | 5.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.8% | 9.3% | RH | 21.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.3% |
| Angels | Home | 15.7% | 8.1% | RH | 15.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 15.6% | 8.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.4% | 7.1% | RH | 22.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.6% | 11.5% | RH | 23.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.7% |
| Giants | Road | 17.4% | 8.5% | RH | 16.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.6% | 10.0% | LH | 19.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.9% | 6.0% | RH | 19.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 5.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.8% | 8.2% | LH | 21.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.1% |
| Rays | Road | 23.6% | 8.1% | RH | 24.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 12.5% |
| Reds | Home | 22.8% | 7.1% | RH | 22.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.5% | 8.8% | RH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 12.5% | 5.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 7.3% | RH | 18.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.2% | 7.0% | LH | 22.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 2.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.5% | 9.9% | RH | 21.9% | 10.0% | L7Days | 15.1% | 12.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 8.9% | RH | 20.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.9% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 2016 | 28.1% | 13.9% | 6.4% | Road | 22.8% | 10.1% | 1.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 9.1% | 12.8% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.2% | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2016 | 33.3% | 16.0% | 14.5% | Home | 28.7% | 14.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 30.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 2016 | 30.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | Road | 25.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Brian Flynn | Royals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 10.0% | 17.1% | 2016 | 34.7% | 11.8% | 20.8% | Home | 39.4% | 11.1% | 30.3% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 2016 | 28.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | Home | 26.1% | 11.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Years | 42.5% | 40.9% | 27.5% | 2016 | 42.5% | 40.9% | 27.5% | Home | 48.5% | 40.0% | 36.4% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 50.0% | 19.4% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 32.5% | 9.8% | 17.0% | 2016 | 31.0% | 10.7% | 13.1% | Road | 27.8% | 13.5% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 22.2% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 23.7% | 14.4% | 0.4% | 2016 | 30.4% | 18.1% | 8.2% | Road | 28.3% | 18.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | -2.8% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 31.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 2016 | 34.7% | 9.8% | 20.2% | Road | 31.1% | 11.4% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 27.3% | 23.7% |
| Dillon Overton | Athletics | L2 Years | 40.5% | 21.7% | 27.0% | 2016 | 40.5% | 21.7% | 27.0% | Home | 56.3% | 15.4% | 43.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.6% | 0.9% | 2016 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 2.3% | Home | 20.6% | 6.2% | -2.2% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 33.3% | 19.1% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 29.9% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 2016 | 36.2% | 7.4% | 20.9% | Road | 32.0% | 10.9% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 35.6% | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2016 | 35.6% | 21.1% | 17.2% | Home | 41.7% | 14.3% | 27.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.8% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 2016 | 33.1% | 9.0% | 16.8% | Road | 30.3% | 6.5% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 42.9% | 29.4% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 2016 | 29.0% | 10.5% | -2.6% | Road | 30.3% | 7.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 35.1% | 11.6% | 15.7% | 2016 | 36.0% | 10.8% | 16.7% | Road | 31.3% | 14.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 16.7% | 11.4% |
| Kyle Lohse | Rangers | L2 Years | 33.8% | 13.2% | 15.9% | 2016 | 42.9% | 16.7% | 33.4% | Road | 29.3% | 11.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 16.7% | 33.4% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.6% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 2016 | 33.9% | 20.4% | 17.9% | Home | 29.8% | 15.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 0.0% | 36.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 25.9% | 12.3% | 6.5% | 2016 | 27.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | Road | 28.3% | 12.9% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 2016 | 29.2% | 11.9% | 13.1% | Home | 31.8% | 10.6% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.1% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 2016 | 23.5% | 15.2% | 0.3% | Road | 26.9% | 16.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 25.0% | -20.0% |
| Tim Lincecum | Angels | L2 Years | 33.3% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 2016 | 33.7% | 18.2% | 12.0% | Home | 31.6% | 8.0% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 22.2% | 13.2% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | L2 Years | 27.7% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 2016 | 34.3% | 18.9% | 15.7% | Road | 31.9% | 14.4% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 11.1% | -2.9% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 2016 | 29.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | Home | 32.3% | 20.7% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 0.0% | 22.3% |
| Tyrell Jenkins | Braves | L2 Years | 24.5% | 16.7% | 6.1% | 2016 | 24.5% | 16.7% | 6.1% | Road | 15.0% | 0.0% | -15.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vance Worley | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.4% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 2016 | 32.9% | 9.5% | 16.8% | Road | 34.4% | 9.7% | 21.4% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 27.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 2016 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 7.3% | Home | 27.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 2016 | 32.5% | 15.3% | 14.0% | Home | 28.2% | 12.7% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 16.7% | 4.6% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 2016 | 29.4% | 14.3% | 11.7% | Home | 39.7% | 5.0% | 29.4% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 0.0% | 31.5% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | Nationals | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Home | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.9% | 16.7% | 20.5% | RH | 33.9% | 13.7% | 16.4% | L7Days | 37.5% | 15.0% | 28.7% |
| Twins | Road | 30.9% | 14.3% | 12.0% | RH | 31.2% | 11.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 29.7% | 6.1% | 9.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.4% | 14.8% | 18.8% | LH | 34.0% | 14.9% | 14.4% | L7Days | 29.4% | 5.7% | 10.1% |
| Indians | Road | 31.0% | 12.1% | 12.2% | LH | 29.7% | 7.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 31.4% | 12.2% | 12.4% |
| Padres | Road | 32.8% | 14.6% | 15.5% | RH | 31.2% | 12.8% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.4% | 24.2% | 10.9% |
| Braves | Road | 26.6% | 8.3% | 5.8% | LH | 29.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 30.4% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.2% | 13.1% | 15.7% | RH | 33.4% | 15.1% | 15.4% | L7Days | 31.7% | 20.5% | 11.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 28.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% | LH | 29.0% | 14.8% | 10.2% | L7Days | 38.8% | 22.9% | 27.6% |
| Royals | Home | 30.7% | 10.8% | 9.2% | RH | 29.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 30.7% | 3.2% | 12.9% |
| Astros | Road | 34.2% | 14.5% | 17.2% | LH | 31.9% | 14.5% | 13.9% | L7Days | 25.7% | 16.1% | 8.6% |
| Mets | Road | 33.0% | 13.9% | 17.3% | RH | 34.3% | 14.1% | 16.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 11.9% | 2.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.9% | 11.2% | 15.6% | RH | 34.4% | 13.2% | 15.7% | L7Days | 37.2% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.6% | 12.7% | 8.4% | RH | 32.1% | 14.1% | 12.3% | L7Days | 27.9% | 11.1% | 2.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 32.2% | 16.8% | 14.5% | LH | 30.5% | 16.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 32.5% | 4.8% | 11.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.9% | 10.6% | 0.0% | RH | 27.8% | 12.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 14.4% | 7.4% | -13.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.3% | 12.4% | 10.5% | RH | 28.9% | 10.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 27.2% | 2.9% | 16.3% |
| Angels | Home | 29.7% | 10.7% | 11.7% | RH | 30.9% | 9.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 32.0% | 13.3% | 23.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.3% | 14.5% | 13.3% | RH | 33.1% | 16.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 31.7% | 9.4% | 4.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 28.8% | 12.9% | 8.9% | RH | 31.8% | 13.8% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 3.1% | 8.7% |
| Giants | Road | 33.0% | 11.8% | 13.9% | RH | 31.1% | 9.2% | 11.6% | L7Days | 37.5% | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.7% | 13.3% | 13.6% | LH | 35.3% | 16.7% | 16.1% | L7Days | 35.6% | 11.1% | 14.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.5% | 15.0% | 10.8% | RH | 29.1% | 12.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.3% | 12.9% | 7.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 32.9% | 14.2% | 17.0% | LH | 33.0% | 12.5% | 14.0% | L7Days | 34.7% | 13.9% | 20.8% |
| Rays | Road | 33.3% | 15.3% | 14.6% | RH | 32.5% | 14.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.7% | -4.1% |
| Reds | Home | 31.0% | 14.8% | 13.7% | RH | 30.6% | 11.9% | 12.3% | L7Days | 33.7% | 9.7% | 14.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 27.9% | 12.8% | 7.4% | RH | 27.4% | 13.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.8% | -5.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.6% | 9.9% | 10.8% | RH | 29.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.0% | 3.1% | 11.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | LH | 30.2% | 12.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 4.8% | 11.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.6% | 14.9% | 12.0% | RH | 33.3% | 15.1% | 15.2% | L7Days | 28.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.3% | 11.1% | 17.3% | RH | 32.8% | 13.7% | 15.6% | L7Days | 29.2% | 11.5% | 15.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 21.2% | 8.3% | 2.55 | 13.1% | 8.0% | 1.64 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 19.0% | 9.1% | 2.09 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.18 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 18.8% | 7.1% | 2.65 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 2.22 |
| Brian Flynn | KAN | 23.8% | 13.0% | 1.83 | 25.3% | 13.5% | 1.87 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 20.8% | 9.0% | 2.31 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 2.44 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | 24.0% | 10.4% | 2.31 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 2.31 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 18.0% | 6.0% | 3.00 | 22.2% | 5.5% | 4.04 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 20.3% | 9.6% | 2.11 | 17.3% | 9.9% | 1.75 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 27.6% | 11.2% | 2.46 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 2.55 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | 8.7% | 10.5% | 0.83 | 8.7% | 10.5% | 0.83 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.1% | 10.9% | 2.39 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.18 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.6% | 10.6% | 1.66 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 1.59 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 18.4% | 6.7% | 2.75 | 20.6% | 6.8% | 3.03 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 22.5% | 8.1% | 2.78 | 17.7% | 5.6% | 3.16 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 12.1% | 10.7% | 1.13 | |||
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 22.0% | 11.1% | 1.98 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 2.25 |
| Kyle Lohse | TEX | 11.5% | 4.6% | 2.50 | 11.5% | 4.6% | 2.50 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 19.2% | 9.0% | 2.13 | 13.0% | 9.3% | 1.40 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 30.4% | 15.1% | 2.01 | 24.7% | 15.1% | 1.64 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 20.7% | 7.5% | 2.76 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 2.51 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 25.0% | 10.2% | 2.45 | 25.6% | 8.7% | 2.94 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.44 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.44 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 15.3% | 8.0% | 1.91 | 10.6% | 7.5% | 1.41 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 14.9% | 7.1% | 2.10 | 13.3% | 5.7% | 2.33 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | ATL | 11.1% | 4.9% | 2.27 | 11.1% | 4.9% | 2.27 |
| Vance Worley | BAL | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.77 | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.22 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 28.4% | 11.7% | 2.43 | 28.6% | 13.7% | 2.09 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 16.3% | 8.8% | 1.85 | 9.5% | 6.8% | 1.40 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 14.7% | 11.0% | 1.34 | 13.2% | 7.3% | 1.81 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS |
Jameson Taillon – We’re still dealing with a small sample of five starts, but his SwStr% has been very unimpressive in almost all of them, three times below 6%. He’s getting most of his swings and misses out of the strike zone, but even though he’s not walking batters, he’s falling behind a little too often with a first pitch strike rate a bit below average, putting batters in a great position to hit his strikes afterward (97.5 Z-Contact%). Strike one would benefit him greatly.
Noah Syndergaard is missing bats at the same pace, so be unconcerned about his K% drop over the last month if healthy. He had a SwStr above 14% in six straight starts going into his last one and still managed to finish at 10.3% with a dead arm.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.36 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.32 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 2.97 | 3.73 | 0.76 | 3.42 | 0.45 | 3.5 | 0.53 | 2 | 4.36 | 2.36 | 4.07 | 2.07 | 3.86 | 1.86 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 6.75 | 4.82 | -1.93 | 5.07 | -1.68 | 5.6 | -1.15 | 8.69 | 4.52 | -4.17 | 4.4 | -4.29 | 4.68 | -4.01 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.69 | 5.01 | 1.32 | 4.8 | 1.11 | 3.47 | -0.22 | 4.24 | 5.31 | 1.07 | 5.07 | 0.83 | 3.84 | -0.4 |
| Brian Flynn | KAN | 2.39 | 3.26 | 0.87 | 3.25 | 0.86 | 3.16 | 0.77 | 1.42 | 2.85 | 1.43 | 2.93 | 1.51 | 3.16 | 1.74 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.85 | 3.92 | 1.07 | 3.82 | 0.97 | 3.48 | 0.63 | 1.41 | 3.51 | 2.1 | 3.46 | 2.05 | 2.88 | 1.47 |
| Cody Reed | CIN | 8.39 | 3.8 | -4.59 | 3.75 | -4.64 | 7.01 | -1.38 | 8.39 | 3.81 | -4.58 | 3.75 | -4.64 | 7.01 | -1.38 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 4.95 | 4.73 | -0.22 | 4.7 | -0.25 | 4.44 | -0.51 | 3.68 | 4.37 | 0.69 | 4.52 | 0.84 | 4.11 | 0.43 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.8 | 3.79 | -1.01 | 3.55 | -1.25 | 4.02 | -0.78 | 2.78 | 4.07 | 1.29 | 3.87 | 1.09 | 4.49 | 1.71 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 2.75 | 3.84 | 1.09 | 3.72 | 0.97 | 3.37 | 0.62 | 4.11 | 3.89 | -0.22 | 3.72 | -0.39 | 3.84 | -0.27 |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | 11.42 | 7.25 | -4.17 | 8.39 | -3.03 | 11.47 | 0.05 | 11.42 | 7.27 | -4.15 | 8.39 | -3.03 | 11.47 | 0.05 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.68 | 3.65 | 0.97 | 3.39 | 0.71 | 3.04 | 0.36 | 6.75 | 4.9 | -1.85 | 4.69 | -2.06 | 5.41 | -1.34 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 5.09 | 4.73 | -0.36 | 5.02 | -0.07 | 4 | -1.09 | 3.29 | 5.09 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 2.31 | 3.56 | 0.27 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.86 | 3.75 | -0.11 | 3.43 | -0.43 | 4.16 | 0.3 | 5.79 | 3.59 | -2.2 | 3.16 | -2.63 | 4.51 | -1.28 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.21 | 3.92 | 0.71 | 4.04 | 0.83 | 3.46 | 0.25 | 5.33 | 5.18 | -0.15 | 5.55 | 0.22 | 6.51 | 1.18 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 7.52 | 4.97 | -2.55 | 5.16 | -2.36 | 4.88 | -2.64 | |||||||
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 3.06 | 4.15 | 1.09 | 4.11 | 1.05 | 3.85 | 0.79 | 1.61 | 3.56 | 1.95 | 3.44 | 1.83 | 3.59 | 1.98 |
| Kyle Lohse | TEX | 10.8 | 6.07 | -4.73 | 7.16 | -3.64 | 8.36 | -2.44 | 10.8 | 6.07 | -4.73 | 7.16 | -3.64 | 8.36 | -2.44 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 5.11 | 4.22 | -0.89 | 4.09 | -1.02 | 5.02 | -0.09 | 5.79 | 5.67 | -0.12 | 5.36 | -0.43 | 7.61 | 1.82 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.56 | 2.65 | 0.09 | 2.42 | -0.14 | 2.04 | -0.52 | 5.23 | 3.53 | -1.7 | 3.34 | -1.89 | 3.3 | -1.93 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.66 | 3.86 | 0.2 | 3.98 | 0.32 | 3.85 | 0.19 | 3.26 | 3.92 | 0.66 | 3.93 | 0.67 | 3.03 | -0.23 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.52 | 3.98 | -0.54 | 4.09 | -0.43 | 4.4 | -0.12 | 4.05 | 3.86 | -0.19 | 3.79 | -0.26 | 4.16 | 0.11 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 6.85 | 4.66 | -2.19 | 4.58 | -2.27 | 5.23 | -1.62 | 6.85 | 4.66 | -2.19 | 4.58 | -2.27 | 5.23 | -1.62 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 5.23 | 4.64 | -0.59 | 4.38 | -0.85 | 5.09 | -0.14 | 4.5 | 5.22 | 0.72 | 4.97 | 0.47 | 4.94 | 0.44 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 3.29 | 4.62 | 1.33 | 4.34 | 1.05 | 3.93 | 0.64 | 6.17 | 6.07 | -0.1 | 5.5 | -0.67 | 4.36 | -1.81 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | ATL | 4.5 | 5.17 | 0.67 | 5.09 | 0.59 | 5.51 | 1.01 | 4.5 | 5.19 | 0.69 | 5.09 | 0.59 | 5.51 | 1.01 |
| Vance Worley | BAL | 2.87 | 4.21 | 1.34 | 4.29 | 1.42 | 3.9 | 1.03 | 4.26 | 5.58 | 1.32 | 5.37 | 1.11 | 5.84 | 1.58 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 3.32 | 3.49 | 0.17 | 3.58 | 0.26 | 3.31 | -0.01 | 2.12 | 3.15 | 1.03 | 2.79 | 0.67 | 2.28 | 0.16 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 5.44 | 4.63 | -0.81 | 4.52 | -0.92 | 4.86 | -0.58 | 6.19 | 4.85 | -1.34 | 4.58 | -1.61 | 4.85 | -1.34 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 5.28 | 4.91 | -0.37 | 4.75 | -0.53 | 4.92 | -0.36 | 8.22 | 4.97 | -3.25 | 4.94 | -3.28 | 5.11 | -3.11 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS |
Anibal Sanchez has a nice gap here, but his estimators are nowhere near good. The .328 BABIP is a bit curious considering a solid profile below though and he probably should still be stranding more than 62.2% of his runners, which would be the second lowest mark in the majors if he qualified.
Carlos Martinez might look like the same pitcher as last year on the surface, but a few things are different. His strikeout rate is merely league average this year, while his 46 point BABIP drop is predicated purely on a four point drop in line drive rate although the contact he’s allowing is not any weaker overall this year. Additionally, he’s stranding 79.9% of his runners. He had a 78.8 LOB% last year, which is still a bit high, but he was also missing more bats. This is not a bad pitcher and maybe a bit better than league average in a big park in St Louis, but the peripherals don’t exactly agree with the ERA so far.
Cody Reed has a 40.9 HR/FB!! Did I mention that yet? Here’s probably why. He’s basically seemed very predictable, throwing his fastball when the batter is ahead and the slider when he gets ahead most of the time to both left and right-handed batters. It’s been the fastball, when batters are ahead and looking for it, that seems to have given up nearly all the HRs. The sinker has been particularly disastrous with four HRs on 70 pitches. It seems that he should understand that he needs to mix it up a bit more in the majors because the stuff seems to play. While a 42.5 Hard% is atrocious, it still shouldn’t lead to a .380 BABIP AND a 40.9 HR/FB.
Dallas Keuchel has a 68.3 LOB% that’s still a bit low and while his 18.1 HR/FB is a bit high, it’s not a tremendous concern due to his high GB rate. He’s still on pace to give up less than 30 HRs.
Jake Arrieta has a .259 BABIP in line with his defense and when he’s going right, batters are swinging at his pitches and weakly pounding them into the ground, but, as mentioned above, he needs to throw more strikes. If he can do that, at this point I’m willing to go more with his current ERA (not the one below two before all this started) rather than his current estimators.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.1 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.280 | 0.281 | 0.001 | 0.224 | 8.3% | 86.3% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.311 | 0.328 | 0.017 | 0.188 | 17.9% | 87.4% |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.305 | 0.323 | 0.018 | 0.227 | 6.1% | 88.4% |
| Brian Flynn | KAN | 0.292 | 0.243 | -0.049 | 0.217 | 17.6% | 85.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.292 | 0.272 | -0.02 | 0.16 | 2.6% | 88.0% |
| Cody Reed | CIN | 0.291 | 0.380 | 0.089 | 0.228 | 0.0% | 85.5% |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 0.303 | 0.297 | -0.006 | 0.228 | 11.9% | 91.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.309 | 0.316 | 0.007 | 0.198 | 12.0% | 88.5% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.280 | 0.269 | -0.011 | 0.162 | 10.9% | 83.5% |
| Dillon Overton | OAK | 0.308 | 0.313 | 0.005 | 0.162 | 4.3% | 82.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.256 | 0.259 | 0.003 | 0.197 | 7.7% | 85.7% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.288 | 0.327 | 0.039 | 0.188 | 11.1% | 87.3% |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.300 | 0.313 | 0.013 | 0.259 | 15.8% | 97.5% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.300 | 0.284 | -0.016 | 0.198 | 12.7% | 88.4% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.298 | 0.324 | 0.026 | 0.253 | 10.5% | 85.3% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.304 | 0.242 | -0.062 | 0.189 | 9.6% | 84.8% |
| Kyle Lohse | TEX | 0.290 | 0.368 | 0.078 | 0.143 | 8.3% | 92.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.298 | 0.295 | -0.003 | 0.188 | 6.5% | 88.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.302 | 0.337 | 0.035 | 0.207 | 4.2% | 82.6% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.299 | 0.296 | -0.003 | 0.188 | 11.0% | 88.2% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.278 | 0.292 | 0.014 | 0.218 | 15.2% | 82.5% |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 0.303 | 0.430 | 0.127 | 0.272 | 0.0% | 84.0% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 0.318 | 0.331 | 0.013 | 0.241 | 5.4% | 86.1% |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.317 | 0.276 | -0.041 | 0.183 | 5.7% | 90.8% |
| Tyrell Jenkins | ATL | 0.291 | 0.298 | 0.007 | 0.17 | 8.3% | 98.5% |
| Vance Worley | BAL | 0.303 | 0.308 | 0.005 | 0.242 | 14.3% | 91.2% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 0.304 | 0.328 | 0.024 | 0.232 | 16.9% | 80.8% |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.296 | 0.317 | 0.021 | 0.209 | 6.1% | 88.1% |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.314 | 0.286 | -0.028 | 0.18 | 7.1% | 90.2% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | WAS | 0.286 |
Noah Syndergaard – It’s hard to say this for any pitcher unless you watch all of their starts, so this is more an observation than any sabermetric analysis, but it seems to fit the numbers. He has a normal line drive rate with just a 27.8% rate of hard contact and a 52.6 GB%. The Mets defense has little range and it just seems that way too many weakly hit balls find grass.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
While we have a couple of elite talents at the top, neither one is currently pitching up to their potential, which maybe benefits DFS players today with slightly reduced prices because nobody on this board appears poised to compete with them on an overall performance level. It’s a great mix of high priced arms and very low priced upside (on DraftKings at least), but really nobody you can fully trust.
Value Tier One
Dallas Keuchel (3t) is not in a great spot for strikeouts, but is in a good one for run prevention. While the park may reduce his strikeouts by one or two, it may help keep the fly balls in the yard too. At a bit above $8K, he may not be the bargain we normally reserve the top spot for, but this isn’t an easy board to navigate. He’s gone at least six innings in 12 of his last 13 starts and that counts for something too.
Value Tier Two
Cody Reed might get my daily fantasy writer’s card revoked today, but this is a pitcher with swing and miss upside against an offense that can least take advantage of his biggest flaws. The Braves have no power! His issues seem like they can be easily corrected by not just flinging meatballs whenever he gets behind. He doesn’t have the kind of fastball that beats hitters. Or another solution might be to not get behind as much. Unfortunately, his $8.2K price tag on DraftKings would probably put him squarely in the tier below at best.
Noah Syndergaard (1t) is not in a great spot, but one he should be able to navigate if his arm is healthy. He’d be top tier today if we were sure of that because you’re getting a third best K-BB (26.1%) and 15th best GB rate (52.6%) in baseball with the 17th lowest hard hit rate (27.8%) for less than $12K.
Jake Arrieta (1t) is struggling and perhaps we’ve pinpointed why. If we have, then he definitely has the fix is to throw more strikes, which he did in his last start, though the results still weren’t what he wanted. With an extended period between starts, it’s possible he’s fixed these issues already. He’s costly and the Mets did beat him up last time out, but it’s really not a bad spot and they will strike out a bit.
Value Tier Three
Reynaldo Lopez may hold a bit of potential on single pitcher sites and will probably have low ownership as nobody really knows who he is, but he may be the perfect pitcher to plug into DraftKings if you have your eye on Arrieta or Syndergaard for just the minimum price tag. This is a site that has aggressively priced debuting prospects this year, so it’s strange to see them with their finger off the pulse here. You never know what a young pitcher is going to do in their debut, but he has upside and DraftKings may have initially missed on this one. Bump him up a full tier there and maybe more and stack Coors if you’d like.
Jameson Taillon has been unimpressive from a swinging strike perspective because he’s having issues getting strike one and his pitches in the strike zone are being hit hard. That should be less of an issue with the Brewers who swing and miss a ton. He is pitching well overall and has passed the 90 pitch mark in three of his five starts. His price tag on DraftKings is a bit aggressive though.
Brian Flynn was at one time a slight prospect with a little bit of upside and hasn’t done bad work out of the pen. He’s also in a great spot against an offense that struggles on the road and against LHP with a strong defense behind him. You could probably do worse for the price.
Carlos Martinez (3t) has been a ground ball machine, but it has cut into his strikeout upside, which has only been league average this year. That’s a big consideration for a $10K pitcher, but he’s struck out a few more in his most recent starts and a good matchup at home might increase his strikeout total again tonight.
Anibal Sanchez might have some value today as a minimally priced pitcher with a decent strikeout rate in a good spot. That’s really it because I don’t necessarily expect him to pitch well, but where the hell were these guys yesterday when Jose Fernandez needed you (on two pitcher sites)?
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Vincent Velasquez (5) has been impressive in both throwing strikes and missing bats since returning from the DL. Perhaps expectations are still a bit high for a pitcher who has struck out more than seven in just one of his last 13 starts, but he seems to be taking steps in the right direction and is in a pretty neutral spot tonight.
Also, see the top of the top of the “No Thank You” list for a few pitchers who may be able to be plugged into the number two spot on DraftKings at low prices.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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