Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, July 24th
Tuesday is one game off a full night slate. Day game pitchers will not be listed with a start time likely before publication. At first glance, this seems to be a well-balanced slate that should have a bit of something useful in most price ranges. Let’s see if that’s true.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -8.1 | 3.56 | 6.2 | 50.8% | 0.99 | 2.67 | 2.64 | Dodgers | 106 | 112 | 145 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | -6.4 | 3.59 | 5.6 | 52.4% | 0.91 | 3.41 | 3.99 | Mariners | 103 | 107 | 68 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | -0.9 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 1.04 | 8.31 | Reds | 98 | 107 | 49 | ||
| Burch Smith | Royals | 4.9 | 4.17 | 2.6 | 40.2% | 1.04 | 4.87 | 3.53 | Tigers | 78 | 80 | 47 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | -5.3 | 4.12 | 6.0 | 43.4% | 0.92 | 5.04 | 2.73 | Angels | 101 | 85 | 107 |
| Chih-Wei Hu | Rays | 2 | 4.34 | 29.4% | 0.94 | 6.45 | 4.07 | Yankees | 108 | 110 | 115 | |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 4.55 | 5.4 | 39.2% | 1.01 | 4.18 | Cubs | 113 | 107 | 116 | |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 6 | 4.29 | 5.3 | 43.0% | 1.04 | 4.19 | Orioles | 88 | 78 | 102 | |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -2.7 | 4.69 | 4.8 | 37.0% | 0.91 | 4.93 | 3.65 | Mets | 77 | 76 | 88 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 3.5 | 3.71 | 4.6 | 41.7% | 0.92 | 3.16 | 4.57 | White Sox | 88 | 93 | 61 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 2.3 | 4.73 | 6.0 | 40.6% | 1.14 | 4.94 | Rangers | 103 | 90 | 120 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.8 | 3.68 | 6.2 | 43.2% | 1.35 | 3.47 | 4.18 | Rockies | 91 | 81 | 88 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -2.4 | 5.01 | 4.9 | 43.3% | 1.04 | 5.75 | Cardinals | 100 | 96 | 127 | |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -1.4 | 3.24 | 5.9 | 42.5% | 0.91 | 3.08 | 4.11 | Giants | 81 | 88 | 67 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | -4.1 | 4.88 | 5.4 | 38.3% | 1.04 | 3.64 | 3.86 | Brewers | 91 | 95 | 75 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -3.1 | 4.03 | 5.5 | 44.4% | 1.10 | 4.00 | 3.97 | Indians | 120 | 107 | 154 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 2.7 | 4.90 | 5.2 | 32.6% | 1.04 | 4.49 | 4.51 | Royals | 83 | 81 | 98 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.5 | 4.21 | 5.7 | 39.4% | 1.01 | 4.95 | 5.06 | Blue Jays | 103 | 101 | 122 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.74 | 5.1 | 37.8% | 1.04 | 4.16 | 4.75 | Nationals | 89 | 94 | 108 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.66 | 5.2 | 40.1% | 0.99 | 3.24 | 1.68 | Phillies | 97 | 95 | 111 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.03 | 6.0 | 47.3% | 1.01 | 3.95 | 4.19 | Diamondbacks | 84 | 83 | 105 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 6.2 | 3.59 | 5.9 | 48.0% | 0.94 | 3.71 | 4.03 | Rays | 108 | 101 | 104 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 2.8 | 3.84 | 5.5 | 37.9% | 1.14 | 4.68 | 7.54 | Athletics | 118 | 102 | 142 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | -4 | 4.44 | 5.8 | 46.6% | 1.01 | 2.78 | 5.35 | Twins | 88 | 86 | 87 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 5.8 | 3.53 | 6.2 | 48.1% | 1.10 | 3.01 | 3.57 | Pirates | 95 | 99 | 182 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | -1.8 | 4.09 | 5.7 | 42.2% | 1.35 | 4.23 | 3.54 | Astros | 119 | 121 | 97 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | -8.8 | 3.93 | 4.5 | 46.7% | 1.04 | 3.96 | 3.68 | Red Sox | 104 | 118 | 69 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | -5.4 | 4.35 | 5.5 | 45.8% | 0.91 | 4.09 | 3.89 | Padres | 70 | 80 | 64 |
Aaron Nola has failed to complete six inning just once over his last 18 starts and has allowed more than two runs just four times this season with a high of four. With a 29.9 K% over the last 30 days, his strikeout rate for the season is up to 26.1%. His .260 xwOBA is best on the board by more than 20 points, .254 at home since last season. His 3.9% Barrels/BBE is best on the board behind a 51.7 GB% and 85.8 mph aEV. He is not in a good spot. The Dodgers are well-disciplined, with power and get a park upgrade tonight.
Andrew Suarez allowed four runs in his last start, snapping a streak of six starts with two runs or less. His strikeout rate has dropped to a league average rate, though his SwStr% is still well below average and may cause even more decline. He does generate a lot of ground balls (52.4% is best on the board), which along with a great park, generally keeps him out of trouble (6.6% Barrels/BBE despite an 88.6 mph aEV). He trades one favorable park for another, though Seattle does not suppress power as much. The Mariners have a 107 wRC+ and 21.3 K% vs LHP, but a surprising 9.9 HR/FB despite the majority of their power being right-handed.
Eric Lauer lasted two innings against the Cubs (5 ERs) one start after missing a complete game against the Dodgers (1 ER – 8 K) by a single out. He has otherwise been unimpressive with a below average strikeout rate (though the SwStr% is up recently). Both his estimators and xwOBA have improved over the last month as well. He’s in a great spot in one of the top parks on the board, facing an offense with a 77 wRC+ and split high 26.1 K% vs LHP. After a brief reappearance, it seems Cespedes is down again too.
Felix Pena is not getting deep into games (5.1 inning high), but has struck out 30 of 100 batters, while allowing seven ERs in 23.2 innings over five starts with two HRs and nine walks. The contact has been a major problem though. His 91.1 mph aEV is higher on the board by over a full mph. He is in a great spot though. The White Sox have an 18.7 K-BB% on the road and 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP.
James Paxton left his last start on almost two weeks ago after just five batters (two HRs) with a back issue. After a 40 pitch, pain free bullpen session, he’s proclaimed himself fit. There is certainly some danger in a re-injury or a cautionary workload, but his 32.2 K% is second highest on the board and the only guy above him is at Coors. He has had some hard contact problems this year (89.6 mph aEV), but is in a nice spot at home against the Giants (81 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB%, 10.8 HR/FB on the road, 88 wRC+ vs LHP, though with slightly better peripherals).
Jeremy Hellickson got smashed in his first start back from the DL, but has complied 11 innings of one run ball with nine strikeouts since. He’s completed six innings just twice this year, but has been about a league average pitcher by peripherals and contact. The Brewers may be a good team with power (16.5 HR/FB at home and vs RHP) in a dangerous park, but there’s also some upside here (25.2 K% at home and vs RHP).
Kenta Maeda has come an out away from completing six innings in each of his last two starts after seven innings in each of the two previous. The good or bad thing is that his pitch count has not differed much over any of those four starts (between 84 and 97). He has not started a game in nearly two weeks, but has struck out exactly nine in four straight. While Statcast believes he’s continuing to excel at contact management (86.6 mph aEV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE), Fangraphs has him at a 37.6 Hard% for the season and above 42% in four straight. I’ll side with Statcast for now because he’s certainly not having any issues preventing hits or runs. His 14.2 SwStr% is tops on the board as are both his 38.1 K% and 17.8 SwStr% over the last month (four starts). A park downgrade for him tonight, but in a high upside spot against an offense with a 25.8 K% and split low 8.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.
Kyle Hendricks has one great start over his last four (8 IP – 0 ER – 8 K @ SF), but has struck out a total of nine over 14.2 innings in the other three. The strikeout rate is a concern, while the ground ball rate is just average this year. He’s not beating his estimators despite the quality defense and 85.4 mph aEV (second best on the board). The Diamondbacks are healthier now, but still have an 83 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP.
Masahiro Tanaka has struck out just 10 of 47 batters since returning from the DL, but has also allowed, but with a 12.7 SwStr%. The upside (13.8 SwStr%) and risk (18 HRs in 15 starts) are both well known by now. It’s difficult to even fathom 9.1% Barrels/BBE with an 86.8 mph aEV, but the weak contact seems to be on balls that stay in the yard (17.3 LD%), affecting BABIP more than power. The good news is that he gets a significant park upgrade against a marginal offense without much power (10.5 HR/FB at home and vs RHP).
Ryan Borucki has made four starts for the Blue Jays, three against the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees, only really struggling against Boston. Of course, he’s going to allow a HR eventually and you’d like to see a SwStr rate a bit higher than 7.9%, but he’s not completely out of range for a 20% strikeout rate, while facing some very contact prone teams. His 89.8 mph aEV is not terribly encouraging either, but again, tough offenses. The Twins, however, have an 86 wRC+, 23.7 K%, and 6.7 HR/FB vs LHP.
Shane Bieber has exceptional control (odd considering his last name, right). His 18.6 K-BB% is the lowest at any level since being drafted and the first time he’s been below 20%. You do need to have a competent strikeout rate to accomplish this. The problem with some of these guys when they reach the majors is that they’re around the plate too much, making major league hitters comfortable. This can be seen in his 89.5 mph aEV, but not necessarily his 6.1% Barrels/BBE. He also pitches in a very positive run environment and while the opposing offense does not have much power, they do have just a 19.2 K% vs RHP and remove the pitcher’s slot from the lineup tonight.
Yefry Ramirez did not enter the season as much of a prospect, but after a 24 K% (7.3 BB%) through 14 AAA starts, he’s struck out 24 of his first 97 major league batters with a .283 xwOBA, 86.3 mph aEV and 4.8% Barrels/BBE. Perhaps it’s time to start paying attention. Unfortunately, the matchup is not in his favor. The Red Sox have a 118 wRC+ and 18.4 K% vs RHP.
Zack Wheeler has pitched into the seventh inning in four of five starts, failing to complete six innings in just one of the six before that by a single out. He has a 25.5 K% and 13.6 SwStr% over the last month along with the lowest aEV on the board for the season (85.1 mph). It may not be enough to be qualified as a breakout, but this is a pitcher who finally seems to be reaching his potential. On top of all that, he’s in a great park against a terrible offense (70 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% on the road, 80 wRC+, 18.1 K-BB% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Carlos Rodon (.225 – 79.2% – 12.3) is missing bats at a below average rate and is facing a predominantly right-handed, contact prone offense.
Junior Guerra (.284 – 81.9% – 10.1) has just an 8.0 SwStr% over the last month and is facing a healthy Washington offense whose peripherals are better than the results.
Frankie Montas (.321 – 74% – 4.3) is a contact prone pitcher (14.6 K%) in a terrible park. With a league average ground ball rate, his 5.7% Barrels/BBE with an 88.1 mph aEV seems a bit fluky.
Clay Buchholz (.236 – 80.3% – 8.7) returns from an oblique injury in a tough spot tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Gerrit Cole has now pushed his strikeout rate over the last month up above 30% again with 19 of his last 47 batters and while Coors is not a death blow to RHP (Rockies 81 wRC+, 15 K-BB%), it’s still a tough spot. His cost is reduced, but certainly not low, while he’s failed to go beyond six innings in each of his last five starts despite exceeding 100 pitches in each of them. If ownership is low enough though, he may be worth a few GPP shots.
Jordan Zimmermann has had a resurgence this year and has been a fine pitcher for the Tigers. In fact, his .230 xwOBA over the last month is actually second best on the board to go along with a 24 K%. The Royals are even a great run prevention matchup with very little power. There are a couple of problems here. He’s missed two weeks with a neck issue and could be limited against an offense that does not strike out much (19.8% vs RHP) for more than $8K.
Jose Berrios is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and might be broken again? He walked three Rays, allowing six runs last time out immediately after a great performance against the Royals (7 IP – 1 ER – 8 K), but also struck out just three Brewers and allowed six runs with four walks and two Ks against the Cubs in the two previous starts. It’s not even a favorable spot. The Blue Jays are a competent offense in a somewhat neutral run environment. He could pitch well here, but the thing is, he’s not really an elite strikeout guy, so it may not be worth the risk until we believe he’s figured it out.
Jose Musgrove is fine. The matchup in Cleveland most certainly is not.
Austin Gomber is the second consecutive Cardinals’ pitcher making his first start, but this is not his MLB debut. He’s made 15 relief appearances this year with a 3.4 K-BB%, 27 GB% and 35.9 Hard%. He has made 11 AAA starts with a 19.6 K-BB%, but the 24 year-old lefty does not seem to be a prospect of interest. He faces a Cincinnati offense that has been tough on LHP in a dangerous park for a fly ball pitcher with possible control issues.
Drew Pomeranz makes his first major league start in nearly two months. He has started four games at AAA this month (6.3 K-BB%), not exceeding 20 batters in any. He’s in a great spot, but add a workload limitation to what has been a terrible major league season to this point and he has some work to do.
Note on Rays pitchers. While this strategy may be a real baseball benefit for the team, it’s getting tiring spending every night scouring twitter and the internet in an attempt to figure out who’s going to throw the first couple of innings for them the next day. Seems it’s most likely to Yonny Chirinos tonight, who hasn’t been in the majors since April and though he’s been starting in the minors, hasn’t gone beyond five innings a single time.
Tyler Anderson has been really good, even if estimators are well above ERA recently. He just happens to be in perhaps the worst park adjusted spot of the season so far. The Houston offense does not need to be supercharged.
Burch Smith has totaled 5.1 innings in his two starts.
Home Bailey
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 26.2% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | Season | 26.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | Home | 29.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | -3.2% | L14Days | 20.8% | 4.2% | -5.5% | |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 22.7% | Season | 22.6% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 22.7% | Road | 21.9% | 6.2% | 15.6% | 18.1% | L14Days | 23.8% | 9.5% | 14.3% | |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 13.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | Season | 17.0% | 13.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | Road | 11.8% | 29.4% | 11.1% | L14Days | |||||
| Burch Smith | Royals | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 34.4% | Season | 23.2% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 34.4% | Home | 22.1% | 11.5% | 19.4% | 42.0% | L14Days | 23.1% | 3.9% | 16.7% | 10.5% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.0% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 15.2% | Season | 19.2% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 11.1% | Road | 20.6% | 11.8% | 17.9% | 17.7% | L14Days | 25.0% | 7.1% | -10.5% | |
| Chih-Wei Hu | Rays | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 17.7% | Season | 16.7% | 3.3% | 15.4% | 12.5% | Home | 16.7% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 22.2% | L14Days | 16.7% | 14.3% | 6.6% | |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 16.1% | Season | 20.3% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 24.7% | Road | 21.3% | 2.5% | 9.7% | 19.7% | L14Days | ||||
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 14.4% | Season | 20.8% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 18.1% | Road | 27.9% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 15.7% | L14Days | ||||
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 18.9% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 25.6% | Season | 18.9% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 25.6% | Road | 18.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 20.5% | L14Days | 25.0% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 31.1% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 22.3% | Season | 28.3% | 8.0% | 19.0% | 26.8% | Home | 29.0% | 6.6% | 18.8% | 20.9% | L14Days | 29.4% | 17.7% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 27.9% | Season | 14.6% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 34.8% | Road | 11.5% | 8.3% | 33.3% | L14Days | |||||
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 26.5% | 7.4% | 14.1% | 9.7% | Season | 35.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 15.6% | Road | 32.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 17.8% | L14Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 8.3% | |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.0% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 20.1% | Season | 13.0% | 8.2% | 29.2% | Home | 10.5% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 27.0% | L14Days | |||||
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 29.1% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 14.5% | Season | 32.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 17.4% | Home | 33.5% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 12.1% | L14Days | 20.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 6.3% | 13.2% | 10.0% | Season | 19.5% | 4.8% | 13.2% | 9.1% | Road | 22.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | L14Days | 22.5% | 7.5% | 3.7% | ||
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 6.3% | 13.7% | 12.5% | Season | 21.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 12.9% | Road | 19.6% | 3.6% | 17.5% | L14Days | 25.0% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 11.4% | |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 16.6% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 21.8% | Season | 23.6% | 4.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | Road | 19.4% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 10.4% | L14Days | 15.6% | 3.1% | 16.7% | 23.1% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 10.9% | Season | 24.9% | 5.7% | 12.9% | 14.2% | Road | 17.7% | 6.7% | 19.7% | 13.7% | L14Days | 18.5% | 11.1% | 22.2% | |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 19.2% | Season | 23.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 25.5% | Home | 25.4% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 17.6% | L14Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 26.3% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | Season | 29.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 21.3% | Road | 29.6% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 18.4% | L14Days | 43.5% | 4.4% | 36.4% | |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 6.4% | 14.4% | 8.3% | Season | 18.2% | 6.7% | 16.7% | 11.0% | Home | 19.8% | 5.8% | 16.4% | 15.6% | L14Days | 16.3% | 2.3% | 20.0% | 29.4% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 24.6% | 5.4% | 19.9% | 12.5% | Season | 24.3% | 6.5% | 20.9% | 16.3% | Road | 25.1% | 5.9% | 22.4% | 16.1% | L14Days | 21.3% | 6.4% | 18.2% | 17.6% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 16.4% | Season | 18.9% | 5.8% | 11.8% | 23.7% | Home | 19.8% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 29.4% | L14Days | 7.1% | 14.3% | 16.7% | -9.1% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 9.6% | 23.3% | Season | 20.2% | 9.6% | 23.3% | Home | 24.1% | 3.7% | 15.4% | L14Days | 21.7% | 17.4% | 42.9% | ||||
| Shane Bieber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 4.4% | 9.5% | 35.1% | Season | 23.0% | 4.4% | 9.5% | 35.1% | Home | 27.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 30.6% | L14Days | 22.2% | 7.4% | 21.0% | |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 22.4% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 6.9% | Season | 23.1% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 8.1% | Home | 23.7% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 7.7% | L14Days | 28.6% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | Season | 24.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | Home | 25.3% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 14.0% | L14Days | 36.8% | 15.8% | -22.2% | |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 7.8% | Season | 23.0% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | Home | 22.1% | 7.9% | 10.8% | L14Days | 21.9% | 6.3% | 16.7% | -8.7% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Road | 20.9% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 19.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 18.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.6% | 18.4% | 26.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.8% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 8.8% | LH | 21.3% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 14.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% |
| Reds | Home | 22.5% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 24.1% | LH | 20.9% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 22.0% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 12.0% | RH | 22.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 17.9% | L7Days | 25.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 22.9% |
| Angels | Home | 21.4% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 20.1% | LH | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 16.2% | L7Days | 26.3% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 16.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.6% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 17.3% | RH | 23.4% | 9.2% | 16.3% | 18.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 13.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.4% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | RH | 20.7% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 14.5% | L7Days | 18.5% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 21.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 9.6% | LH | 21.5% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 30.7% | 3.3% | 15.4% | 16.7% |
| Mets | Home | 23.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | LH | 26.1% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 16.5% | RH | 25.5% | 6.6% | 12.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.1% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 24.1% | RH | 25.3% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 21.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 9.9% | 20.6% | 23.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.4% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 15.0% | RH | 23.2% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 15.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 24.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.7% | 9.3% | 16.6% | 19.3% | RH | 22.0% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 22.2% | L7Days | 13.9% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 17.7% |
| Giants | Road | 24.3% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 19.0% | LH | 21.4% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 20.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 20.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.2% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 25.2% | RH | 25.2% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 17.2% | L7Days | 24.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 19.1% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 27.4% | RH | 20.2% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 25.6% | L7Days | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 37.4% |
| Royals | Home | 20.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 25.0% | RH | 19.8% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 22.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 14.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.0% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 13.6% | RH | 23.1% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 17.3% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% | RH | 21.2% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 12.7% | L7Days | 26.7% | 6.9% | 19.2% | 7.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 7.5% | RH | 25.8% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.8% | 7.4% | 22.9% | 2.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.2% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 18.0% | RH | 24.4% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 20.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 23.3% |
| Rays | Home | 22.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 16.4% | RH | 22.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 15.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.4% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.9% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 23.2% | LH | 23.3% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 25.3% | L7Days | 15.9% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 33.1% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 16.7% | LH | 23.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 16.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.6% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 17.1% | RH | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 14.6% | 5.1% | 20.8% | 32.5% |
| Astros | Road | 19.3% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 22.0% | LH | 19.9% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 17.8% | L7Days | 13.3% | 15.0% | 7.4% | 16.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.0% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 20.0% | RH | 18.4% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 20.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 21.0% |
| Padres | Road | 26.4% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 15.3% | RH | 26.0% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 17.4% | L7Days | 28.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | -3.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 26.1% | 11.5% | 2.27 | 29.9% | 12.5% | 2.39 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 22.6% | 7.4% | 3.05 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 2.74 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 17.0% | 11.1% | 1.53 | 17.7% | 10.0% | 1.77 |
| Burch Smith | Royals | 23.2% | 10.0% | 2.32 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.94 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 19.2% | 8.8% | 2.18 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 2.18 |
| Chih-Wei Hu | Rays | 16.7% | 8.8% | 1.90 | 16.7% | 8.2% | 2.04 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.18 | 29.4% | 17.0% | 1.73 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 20.8% | 7.5% | 2.77 | |||
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.30 | 17.5% | 10.1% | 1.73 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 28.3% | 13.5% | 2.10 | 29.3% | 14.2% | 2.06 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 14.6% | 7.8% | 1.87 | 13.6% | 8.8% | 1.55 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 35.2% | 14.1% | 2.50 | 32.2% | 15.5% | 2.08 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 13.0% | 7.5% | 1.73 | |||
| James Paxton | Mariners | 32.2% | 13.8% | 2.33 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 2.13 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.17 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 2.15 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 21.5% | 10.8% | 1.99 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 1.85 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 23.6% | 10.3% | 2.29 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 2.20 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 24.9% | 11.3% | 2.20 | 23.3% | 10.1% | 2.31 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.42 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 2.84 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 29.7% | 14.2% | 2.09 | 38.1% | 17.8% | 2.14 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.2% | 8.8% | 2.07 | 15.9% | 9.3% | 1.71 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.3% | 13.8% | 1.76 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 1.68 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.95 | 16.3% | 9.3% | 1.75 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 20.2% | 7.9% | 2.56 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 2.56 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.02 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.70 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 23.1% | 11.9% | 1.94 | 30.1% | 10.8% | 2.79 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 24.7% | 14.0% | 1.76 | 23.4% | 15.2% | 1.54 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 23.0% | 11.0% | 2.09 | 25.5% | 13.6% | 1.88 |
Andrew Suarez has seen his strikeout rate drop from around a quarter of batters faced to a closer to league average mark. The bad news is that it may still have more to go.
Kyle Hendricks has only been above a 9 SwStr% once over the last month, so this number is a bit misleading.
Shane Bieber has seen the strikeout rate drop, but not really the SwStr%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 2.30 | 3.43 | 1.13 | 2.30 | 0.92 | 2.62 | 0.32 | 2.33 | 0.03 | 1.30 | 2.96 | 1.66 | 2.9 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 0.30 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 3.94 | 3.59 | -0.35 | 3.94 | -0.60 | 3.52 | -0.42 | 3.30 | -0.64 | 2.63 | 3.73 | 1.10 | 3.43 | 0.80 | 2.95 | 0.32 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 3.77 | 5.24 | 1.47 | 3.77 | 1.45 | 4.76 | 0.99 | 5.77 | 2.00 | 2.45 | 4.33 | 1.88 | 4.94 | 2.49 | 3.16 | 0.71 |
| Burch Smith | Royals | 5.98 | 4.17 | -1.81 | 5.98 | -1.29 | 5.43 | -0.55 | 6.01 | 0.03 | 4.76 | 3.17 | -1.59 | 3.35 | -1.41 | 2.63 | -2.13 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 3.56 | 4.72 | 1.16 | 3.56 | 1.53 | 5.04 | 1.48 | 6.59 | 3.03 | 3.04 | 4.88 | 1.84 | 5 | 1.96 | 4.81 | 1.77 |
| Chih-Wei Hu | Rays | 5.87 | 4.68 | -1.19 | 5.87 | -0.86 | 5.64 | -0.23 | 3.81 | -2.06 | 3.60 | 4.07 | 0.47 | 4.24 | 0.64 | 4.56 | 0.96 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 2.56 | 4.03 | 1.47 | 2.56 | 1.56 | 3.52 | 0.96 | 3.55 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 2.14 | 2.14 | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 6.81 | 4.90 | -1.91 | 6.81 | -1.78 | 5.37 | -1.44 | 8.61 | 1.80 | |||||||
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 4.87 | 4.69 | -0.18 | 4.87 | -0.36 | 4.59 | -0.28 | 5.97 | 1.10 | 3.71 | 4.34 | 0.63 | 4.09 | 0.38 | 4.02 | 0.31 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 3.42 | 3.28 | -0.14 | 3.42 | -0.25 | 3.84 | 0.42 | 3.47 | 0.05 | 2.75 | 3.12 | 0.37 | 2.79 | 0.04 | 2.95 | 0.20 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 3.35 | 4.87 | 1.52 | 3.35 | 1.21 | 3.51 | 0.16 | 5.99 | 2.64 | 5.52 | 5.14 | -0.38 | 4.96 | -0.56 | 2.95 | -2.57 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 2.52 | 2.93 | 0.41 | 2.52 | 0.56 | 2.99 | 0.47 | 2.04 | -0.48 | 2.28 | 3.64 | 1.36 | 3.48 | 1.20 | 3.12 | 0.84 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.68 | 5.33 | -1.35 | 6.68 | -1.38 | 6.29 | -0.39 | 6.28 | -0.40 | |||||||
| James Paxton | Mariners | 3.70 | 2.97 | -0.73 | 3.70 | -0.66 | 3.16 | -0.54 | 2.63 | -1.07 | 3.57 | 2.41 | -1.16 | 2.39 | -1.18 | 3.25 | -0.32 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 3.29 | 3.94 | 0.65 | 3.29 | 0.45 | 3.81 | 0.52 | 3.77 | 0.48 | 5.49 | 4.54 | -0.95 | 4.51 | -0.98 | 4.84 | -0.65 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 4.08 | 4.07 | -0.01 | 4.08 | 0.17 | 3.69 | -0.39 | 4.04 | -0.04 | 3.20 | 4.13 | 0.93 | 4.26 | 1.06 | 3.92 | 0.72 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 3.71 | 3.77 | 0.06 | 3.71 | 0.29 | 3.40 | -0.31 | 3.30 | -0.41 | 2.03 | 3.51 | 1.48 | 3.83 | 1.80 | 2.97 | 0.94 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 3.68 | 3.61 | -0.07 | 3.68 | 0.07 | 3.79 | 0.11 | 3.94 | 0.26 | 4.60 | 4.12 | -0.48 | 4.35 | -0.25 | 4.66 | 0.06 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 3.23 | 4.24 | 1.01 | 3.23 | 1.10 | 3.98 | 0.75 | 5.13 | 1.90 | 4.71 | 4.32 | -0.39 | 4.45 | -0.26 | 4.21 | -0.50 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 3.12 | 3.42 | 0.30 | 3.12 | 0.17 | 2.78 | -0.34 | 2.39 | -0.73 | 1.40 | 2.31 | 0.91 | 2.17 | 0.77 | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.99 | 4.34 | 0.35 | 3.99 | 0.13 | 4.62 | 0.63 | 3.39 | -0.60 | 4.91 | 4.32 | -0.59 | 3.98 | -0.93 | 4.48 | -0.43 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.54 | 3.71 | -0.83 | 4.54 | -0.75 | 4.91 | 0.37 | 4.21 | -0.33 | 4.22 | 4.03 | -0.19 | 3.81 | -0.41 | 4.56 | 0.34 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 4.89 | 4.42 | -0.47 | 4.89 | -0.18 | 4.57 | -0.32 | 6.29 | 1.40 | 4.29 | 4.92 | 0.63 | 5.02 | 0.73 | 5.02 | 0.73 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 3.52 | 4.44 | 0.92 | 3.52 | 0.61 | 2.64 | -0.88 | 5.59 | 2.07 | 3.52 | 4.44 | 0.92 | 4.13 | 0.61 | 2.64 | -0.88 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 3.53 | 3.53 | 0.00 | 3.53 | -0.04 | 3.11 | -0.42 | 3.97 | 0.44 | 4.32 | 4.07 | -0.25 | 4.09 | -0.23 | 3.44 | -0.88 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 3.72 | 4.09 | 0.37 | 3.72 | 0.34 | 4.14 | 0.42 | 3.96 | 0.24 | 0.96 | 3.26 | 2.30 | 3.2 | 2.24 | 2.27 | 1.31 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 3.09 | 3.93 | 0.84 | 3.09 | 1.10 | 3.63 | 0.54 | 2.37 | 4.03 | 1.66 | 4.16 | 1.79 | 3.21 | 0.84 | ||
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 4.44 | 4.10 | -0.34 | 4.44 | -0.42 | 3.75 | -0.69 | 3.60 | -0.84 | 3.16 | 3.72 | 0.56 | 3.43 | 0.27 | 3.24 | 0.08 |
Aaron Nola has 6.3 HR/FB.
Masahiro Tanaka has a .252 BABIP, but 20.9 HR/FB.
Ryan Borucki has a .370 BABIP, 67.6 LOB% and 0.0 HR/FB through four starts. Regression all around.
Yefry Ramirez has an 8.3 HR/FB through four starts and one long relief appearance.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.297 | 0.260 | -0.037 | 51.7% | 18.6% | 14.6% | 83.5% | 31.5% |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.296 | 0.313 | 0.017 | 52.4% | 20.1% | 7.1% | 90.5% | 36.3% |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 0.290 | 0.263 | -0.027 | 27.0% | 40.5% | 16.7% | 85.0% | 39.2% |
| Burch Smith | Royals | 0.309 | 0.336 | 0.027 | 40.2% | 17.2% | 5.8% | 82.6% | 45.4% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 0.289 | 0.225 | -0.064 | 42.5% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 89.7% | 44.6% |
| Chih-Wei Hu | Rays | 0.273 | 0.136 | -0.137 | 20.8% | 25.0% | 15.4% | 83.3% | 46.9% |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.282 | 0.236 | -0.046 | 40.7% | 18.6% | 6.5% | 90.0% | 40.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.293 | 0.367 | 0.074 | 38.3% | 20.0% | 6.3% | 91.4% | 37.8% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.305 | 0.358 | 0.053 | 37.0% | 28.4% | 8.3% | 86.8% | 41.2% |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.293 | 0.328 | 0.035 | 52.1% | 18.3% | 14.3% | 83.6% | 30.8% |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.274 | 0.321 | 0.047 | 43.6% | 26.3% | 4.3% | 89.0% | 44.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.276 | 0.256 | -0.020 | 35.1% | 21.0% | 13.4% | 79.1% | 37.8% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.296 | 0.308 | 0.012 | 40.9% | 21.8% | 8.5% | 92.3% | 41.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.294 | 0.293 | -0.001 | 38.1% | 20.8% | 10.1% | 81.7% | 36.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.290 | 0.263 | -0.027 | 46.2% | 24.7% | 18.9% | 85.9% | 32.5% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.300 | 0.331 | 0.031 | 44.4% | 19.4% | 8.6% | 84.8% | 32.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.292 | 0.292 | 0.000 | 31.5% | 21.2% | 14.9% | 88.4% | 32.8% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.308 | 0.253 | -0.055 | 40.1% | 20.8% | 12.9% | 86.4% | 32.6% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.278 | 0.284 | 0.006 | 38.7% | 20.8% | 12.8% | 87.2% | 42.2% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.292 | 0.316 | 0.024 | 39.4% | 25.9% | 5.3% | 83.8% | 36.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.274 | 0.273 | -0.001 | 46.4% | 22.5% | 10.2% | 86.6% | 27.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.282 | 0.252 | -0.030 | 44.7% | 17.3% | 11.6% | 82.9% | 31.1% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.306 | 0.281 | -0.025 | 35.1% | 20.3% | 13.2% | 86.0% | 39.3% |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.306 | 0.370 | 0.064 | 46.6% | 24.7% | 14.3% | 91.8% | 31.2% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.295 | 0.362 | 0.067 | 48.1% | 19.8% | 4.8% | 84.8% | 30.3% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.307 | 0.273 | -0.034 | 38.2% | 22.9% | 9.0% | 84.3% | 40.7% |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 0.319 | 0.283 | -0.036 | 46.7% | 13.3% | 16.7% | 80.0% | 38.6% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.302 | 0.311 | 0.009 | 44.4% | 20.5% | 11.3% | 84.2% | 35.6% |
Aaron Nola has a BABIP well below his defense, which is a surprise being even league average considering they’re one of the worst defenses in the league otherwise. His own profile, however, is fantastic. Lots of weak ground balls, some popups and a low line drive rate with a strong Z-Contact%. You can’t ask for much more.
Eric Lauer has a 28.4 LD%, which is just not going to fly and will likely regress.
Felix Pena has a high ground ball rate and terrific BABIP profile, but the contact is just very hard.
Jeremy Hellickson does get some popups, but the line drive rate probably evens that out as far as BABIP goes. He does have a career .269 BABIP though. However, remember that a lot of those lower numbers were earlier in his career in front of an innovative Tampa Bay defense.
Masahiro Tanaka has a really nice BABIP profile and a .276 career BABIP. He’s the only pitcher with more than five starts to have both a great Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing%.
Shane Bieber has a high aEV, but that BABIP is outrageous.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.260 | -0.021 | 0.254 | 0.001 | 0.242 | -0.035 | 0.200 | 85.8 | 3.9 | 30.900 | 333 |
| Andrew Suarez | Giants | 0.320 | -0.013 | 0.323 | 0.019 | 0.284 | -0.003 | -1.900 | 88.6 | 6.6 | 36.700 | 259 |
| Austin Gomber | Cardinals | 0.434 | -0.109 | 0.465 | -0.005 | 0.421 | -0.011 | 0.500 | 83.4 | 12.8 | 33.300 | 39 |
| Burch Smith | Royals | 0.368 | 0.007 | 0.399 | 0.008 | 0.312 | -0.022 | 0.400 | 89 | 11.2 | 41.600 | 125 |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 0.318 | -0.022 | 0.310 | 0.012 | 0.296 | -0.012 | -0.800 | 87.1 | 5.5 | 33.100 | 127 |
| Chih-Wei Hu | Rays | 0.371 | -0.124 | 0.400 | -0.100 | 0.290 | -0.127 | -1.800 | ||||
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.340 | -0.074 | 0.321 | -0.057 | 0.234 | -0.109 | -0.100 | 88.8 | 9.7 | 38.900 | 113 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.360 | 0.037 | 0.316 | 0.006 | -2.600 | 89.7 | 11.2 | 33.600 | 116 | ||
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.350 | 0.016 | 0.350 | 0.015 | 0.311 | -0.004 | -0.700 | 86.8 | 5.9 | 31.900 | 254 |
| Felix Pena | Angels | 0.324 | -0.004 | 0.285 | 0.039 | 0.317 | -0.021 | -1.000 | 91.1 | 11.3 | 46.500 | 71 |
| Frankie Montas | Athletics | 0.338 | -0.010 | 0.360 | -0.009 | 0.377 | -0.026 | -1.000 | 88.1 | 5.7 | 38.600 | 158 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.297 | -0.041 | 0.330 | -0.024 | 0.351 | -0.064 | -0.700 | 88.2 | 8.0 | 42.000 | 276 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.413 | -0.029 | 0.389 | 0.012 | -0.200 | 88.8 | 9.6 | 45.900 | 229 | ||
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.302 | -0.021 | 0.268 | -0.006 | 0.305 | 0.007 | -0.400 | 89.6 | 8.9 | 42.100 | 292 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.330 | -0.041 | 0.323 | -0.018 | 0.345 | -0.013 | -1.200 | 87.4 | 8.6 | 32.300 | 186 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.302 | 0.021 | 0.311 | 0.006 | 0.310 | 0.037 | -0.300 | 87.1 | 4.9 | 31.500 | 162 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | 0.300 | -0.007 | 0.349 | 0.010 | 0.230 | 0.044 | -0.500 | 87.5 | 8.1 | 34.400 | 186 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.304 | -0.024 | 0.342 | 0.004 | 0.329 | -0.020 | -0.400 | 86.7 | 5.8 | 33.600 | 345 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.335 | -0.027 | 0.320 | -0.007 | 0.334 | 0.022 | -0.300 | 89.4 | 6.9 | 42.000 | 274 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.294 | -0.008 | 0.303 | 0.018 | 0.274 | -0.033 | -0.800 | 86.6 | 5.9 | 32.100 | 221 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.341 | -0.038 | 0.321 | -0.028 | 0.356 | -0.036 | -0.900 | 85.4 | 7.4 | 32.000 | 337 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.332 | -0.018 | 0.333 | 0.014 | 0.333 | 0.008 | -1.200 | 86.8 | 9.1 | 35.800 | 232 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.365 | -0.030 | 0.311 | -0.015 | 0.338 | -0.049 | -0.900 | 88.7 | 12.3 | 38.300 | 308 |
| Ryan Borucki | Blue Jays | 0.357 | -0.031 | 0.315 | -0.071 | 0.357 | -0.031 | -0.400 | 89.8 | 9.6 | 37.000 | 73 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.314 | 0.017 | 0.271 | 0.028 | 0.299 | -0.001 | 0.100 | 89.5 | 6.1 | 35.900 | 131 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.290 | 0.014 | 0.296 | 0.025 | 0.213 | 0.003 | -0.300 | 86.1 | 4.1 | 28.100 | 320 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 0.283 | 0.007 | 0.305 | 0.018 | 0.284 | -0.008 | 0.000 | 86.3 | 4.8 | 30.600 | 62 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.318 | -0.015 | 0.336 | -0.002 | 0.295 | -0.010 | 0.900 | 85.1 | 6.1 | 29.400 | 310 |
One thing that’s striking today is the disconnect between aEV and Barrels/BBE on some of these guys. In some cases, this can be explained by a high ground ball rate, but that doesn’t seem to be the case for all these guys.
Among regular starters this year, Mike Minor is really the only guy above a .350 xwOBA. We’d expect regressed numbers the later into the season we get, but this board is definitely light on high xwOBA pitchers. The few hard contact prone guys there are seem to strike out enough batters to get away with it for the most part.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It does seem we have a little something from each price range tonight.
Value Tier One
Eric Lauer is a secondary pitcher DraftKings option and that is all, but he may end up being the most popular SP2 by a large margin because he costs the minimum. His $3.4K price differential is nearly twice any other pitcher tonight.
Zack Wheeler (4) may still have an ERA with a couple of estimators above four, but a lot of his runs have come near the end of outings and often even inherited runners allowed to score by the bullpen. He’s been much better than that for a while now. He combines an increasing strikeout rate with the weakest contact on the board (defense does him no favors either). He also may be in the top matchup tonight. The cost is up to $9K on FanDuel, where he may have to drop a tier, but he costs just $7.7K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Two
Felix Pena allows too much hard contact, but he also strikes out a ton of batters and a lot of that hard contact is on the ground, which has kept him out of trouble. He’s cheap in a high upside spot, but is a five-inning pitcher. Perhaps he’ll set a new high here.
James Paxton (1) is a risk tonight because of the recent back issues. However, his last outing has dragged his cost down to where his upside certainly makes it worth the risk in a nice spot. In fact, without injury concerns at this price, he’d be the day’s top value and easily the top overall pitcher.
Value Tier Three
Aaron Nola (2) is the most expensive pitcher on the board by at least $500 on either site and may be the most complete pitcher with more strikeouts over the last month. Players would not be out of line for expecting a floor of six innings, two runs with five plus strikeouts as a floor at this point, but this is a tough matchup and that floor is not going to get it done at this price.
Jeremy Hellickson costs around $6.5K in a matchup with some upside, but isn’t likely to go very deep into this game.
Masahiro Tanaka is a high upside pitcher for less than $9K with a nice park upgrade. Of course, you know the risk, but he’s facing a low power offense.
Andrew Suarez is probably not as good as his estimators if we expect more strikeout decline, but even if we push them up half a run and call him something close to a league average pitcher, he comes at a reasonable price in a great park tonight. Keeping the ball on the ground should limit the damage. There may still be some value here.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kenta Maeda (3) is tough to pay more than $11K for, even in a high upside spot, for a guy who rarely throws more than 95 pitches. However, efficiency can get him through seven innings and he misses tons of bats while costing much less on FanDuel, where I’d certainly bump him up at least a tier.
Shane Bieber is a competent arm at a reasonable price, but he’s not in a high upside matchup in a difficult park.
Ryan Borucki is interesting today because he’s competently made his way through the top offenses in the league and is very reasonably priced in a favorable matchup tonight.
Kyle Hendricks hasn’t met expectations, but still generates a lot of weak contact and hasn’t been terrible. He’s in a favorable spot at a reasonable price, but probably has limited upside. He’s not likely to win you a GPP, but shouldn’t hurt you too much.
Yefry Ramirez is in a tough spot and has only exceed 20 batters once so far, but I wouldn’t mind a small bet on the profile at a great price. He’s only backed up his quality AAA work this year once reaching the majors.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.