Advanced Stats – Pitching: Tuesday, July 25th
Tuesday night is one Chicago day game away from a full slate and a tough one on the mound at that. It’s not so much that there’s a shortage of usable arms, but more an absence of elite ones as you consider the highest strikeout rates on the board (Luis Castillo, Mike Clevinger, and Charlie Morton). Without any slam dunks or many obvious pitchers to attack for that matter either, this is one of the more difficult slates to navigate and likely one of the more difficult ones to write about as well.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.2 | 4.05 | 5.91 | 44.4% | 0.96 | 4.05 | 5.66 | CHC | 97 | 109 | 97 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | -2.8 | 4.79 | 4. | 39.1% | 1.03 | 3.54 | 2.12 | OAK | 87 | 104 | 108 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.8 | 3.75 | 5.41 | 53.9% | 0.96 | 3.66 | 3.68 | PHI | 94 | 86 | 138 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.5 | 4.04 | 6.49 | 48.4% | 1.11 | 4.23 | 5.16 | MIA | 100 | 97 | 75 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 4.1 | 4.54 | 5.79 | 33.1% | 1.11 | 4.7 | 5.03 | TEX | 102 | 94 | 73 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.8 | 3.95 | 6.04 | 37.8% | 0.98 | 4.07 | 4.31 | DET | 114 | 125 | 108 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 7 | 3.78 | 5.55 | 44.0% | 0.89 | 3.93 | 5.49 | SEA | 109 | 101 | 67 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.1 | 5.12 | 5.72 | 38.3% | 1.01 | 5.03 | 4.86 | MIL | 96 | 95 | 78 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 6.6 | 4.15 | 6.13 | 50.7% | 0.89 | 4.09 | 3.12 | BOS | 95 | 88 | 52 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | -0.7 | 4.26 | 6.25 | 40.1% | 0.96 | 5.01 | 5.67 | BAL | 91 | 97 | 145 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -3.2 | 3.71 | 5.71 | 52.3% | 0.93 | 3.48 | 2.77 | SFO | 74 | 79 | 76 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 1.2 | 4.3 | 5.38 | 42.6% | 1.09 | 4.9 | 3.59 | CLE | 109 | 104 | 119 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.8 | 4.36 | 5.5 | 50.1% | 0.91 | 4.07 | 5.01 | NYM | 111 | 101 | 91 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.2 | 3.95 | 6.3 | 43.0% | 0.96 | 4.07 | 6.84 | CHW | 94 | 87 | 74 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -4.2 | 3.85 | 5.34 | 43.7% | 0.98 | 4.08 | 5.29 | STL | 103 | 98 | 101 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 1.1 | 4.34 | 5.62 | 41.5% | 1.01 | 4.21 | 5.65 | CIN | 95 | 93 | 91 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 1.8 | 4.7 | 5.11 | 40.3% | 0.89 | 5.44 | 5.8 | LOS | 120 | 109 | 129 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.8 | 3.8 | 5.39 | 41.9% | 0.89 | 3.78 | 4.44 | MIN | 91 | 99 | 107 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -3.5 | 4.62 | 5.46 | 45.5% | 0.98 | 4.65 | 4.15 | COL | 80 | 79 | 142 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 7.4 | 3.71 | 5.83 | 55.7% | 1.01 | 3.69 | 4.01 | NYY | 120 | 116 | 103 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -0.9 | 3.22 | 6.81 | 41.2% | 0.93 | 3.52 | 4.59 | PIT | 91 | 95 | 122 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.8 | 4.18 | 6.34 | 49.3% | 0.98 | 4.17 | 4.89 | KAN | 84 | 89 | 136 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0 | 4.51 | 4.83 | 38.6% | 1.09 | 4.46 | 3.53 | ANA | 81 | 91 | 92 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -2.5 | 4.36 | 5.61 | 39.1% | 1.13 | 4.2 | 4.69 | ARI | 106 | 103 | 116 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.1 | 4.52 | 5.32 | 0.387 | 0.96 | 3.24 | 4.65 | HOU | 140 | 135 | 164 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -1.4 | 4.7 | 6.01 | 0.44 | 0.91 | 4.63 | 4.19 | SDG | 89 | 87 | 113 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -12.2 | 4.14 | 5.81 | 0.53 | 1.03 | 3.87 | 3.7 | TOR | 91 | 89 | 76 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -5.3 | 4.16 | 5.68 | 0.445 | 1.13 | 4.24 | 3.7 | ATL | 89 | 87 | 68 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -4.6 | 4.36 | 5.54 | 0.49 | 0.96 | 4.3 | 6.41 | TAM | 112 | 91 | 63 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -1.3 | 4.38 | 5.69 | 0.483 | 1.01 | 4.52 | 4.9 | WAS | 115 | 110 | 82 |
Charlie Morton has had mixed overall results since returning from the DL, but did strike out 10 in one of his three starts. The velocity has been down about a mile per hour, but he’s still throwing harder than he ever has with a career high 25.5 K% and a 51.2 GB% with just 4.4% Barrels/BBE. The Phillies are one of the hotter offenses in the league, but match up well with a 23.5 K% vs RHP.
Drew Pomeranz has gotten through at least six innings in six of his last seven starts after having struggled to get through more than five often through the first two months of the season or so. He’ll generally miss bats at a slightly higher than league average rate and gets a significant park upgrade against an offense that doesn’t strike out much against LHP (18.3%), but hasn’t hit for a lot of power either (10 HR/FB).
Felix Hernandez is coming off his best start of the season (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 9 K – 25 K) facing a slumping and possibly exhausted Yankees lineup. However, he now has a 22.4 K% for the season and 25.8% over the last month. His walks are down 50% from last season, enabling him to nearly double his K-BB to 16.4%. While his 10.2% Barrels/BBE are the highest of any pitcher with more than one start this season for tonight’s slate, the rest of his Statcast numbers haven’t been bad and he’s in a park that can hide some mistakes. He gets another slumping offense tonight. In fact, Boston’s 52 wRC+ over the last week is the lowest mark in the league (2.1 Hard-Soft%). They haven’t shown much power against RHP all season (10.4 HR/FB).
Jameson Taillon has failed to complete six innings in any of his last three starts, but it’s not due to workload limitations. He threw a season high 116 pitches last time out and has been above 100 in four of his last five starts. The good news is that strikeouts are up and while it’s questionable whether his SwStr% supports such a rise, he’s been above 11% in two of his last three starts. The Giants strike out less than the average offense, but not by much and that’s where the concern ends. He’s been an above average contact manager (52.2 GB%, 5.6 Hard-Soft%, 85.1 mph aEV, 29.7% 95+ mph EV) and is in the top contact management and overall run prevention spot on the board. The Giants have a 5.7 HR/FB and 4.0 Hard-Soft% at home with a 28.3 Hard-Soft% and 8.6 HR/FB vs RHP.
Kenta Maeda combines a 13.3 SwStr% with an 83.7 mph aEV (26.1% 95+ mph EV). He should be closer to a Cy Young than an ERA above four. Even crazier is that in five starts over the last month, he’s needed an 81.9% strand rate to generate a 3.05 ERA because his SwStr% has been below average in three of those starts and below his season average in all of them. Often held to below 90 pitches, he’s only surpassed even five innings three times, though he’s thrown at least seven innings in all three of those starts. He is in a favorable spot, facing a somewhat average Minnesota offense in a greatly negative run environment.
Luis Castillo is tied for the second highest SwStr% on the slate (13.3%) and has actually turned his swings and misses into the top strikeout rate on the slate (29.5%). While he’s allowed seven HRs in six starts, moving from one bandbox to another tonight, he’s actually only allowed barrels on 4.5% of batted balls. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts and struck out at least six in each of his last five. The Yankees got a much needed day off on the way back from the West Coast yesterday and are a dangerous matchup in a dangerous park (19.8 HR/FB at home), but they will strike out a bit (22.4% vs RHP).
Madison Bumgarner has been unimpressive, striking out just 10 of 52 batters on a 5.0 SwStr% with four HRs allowed in two starts since returning. Both of those starts were against the Padres too. The good news is that his velocity bumped back up above 90 mph in his last start, but that’s still around a mph below his season average. He’s in a decent spot hosting a Pittsburgh offense with strong plate discipline, but not a lot of power.
Mike Clevinger has the top swinging strike rate on the board (13.6%) and the second best strikeout rate (27.8%). He’s also gone six innings in four straight starts (three total runs) with two or fewer walks in three of them, while his strikeout rate is just below 30% over the last month. We’ll take this at home against the Angels, especially when you consider that RHBs have just a .257 wOBA against him this year.
Sonny Gray is getting his six innings in and missing bats at a higher than average rate with a 55.3 GB% and somewhat average contact authority. While he faces a park downgrade in Toronto tonight, the Blue Jays have been a below average offense. In fact, the biggest concern would be that he gets traded and pulled mid-start.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Michael Fulmer (.272 – 68% – 6.8) has managed contact well 85.7 mph aEV, 27.9% 95+ mph EV and is in a reasonable spot hosting Kansas City (though they’ve been hot), but the strikeout have just collapsed. He has a total of six over his last three starts and the Royals actually beat the crap out of him last time out. Prior to that, he’d at least gone seven inning or more in four of five starts. He’s also running a 27.8% unearned run rate over the last month.
Danny Duffy (.314 – 74.7% – 6.5) has struck out more than four in just one of four starts since returning from the DL with just a 5.3 SwStr% last time out. The Tigers destroy LHP at home and that was more than just J.D. Martinez.
Cole Hamels (.229 – 73% – 12.1) turned in a stinker (three HRs, three strikeouts) after two strong starts, fooling people into thinking he was back. The thing is, he might be back. Alternating strong starts and stinkers is what he did last year too, though it was masked by a high strand rate. For the year, he has just a 6.2 K-BB% with an 87.7 mph aEV and it’s unknown how much of that is due to injury. Paying more than $8K for him in Texas against an offense with some right-handed power seems too much of a risk for not enough reward at this point.
Lance Lynn (.225 – 82.4% – 16.8) has not exceeded five strikeouts in any of his last four starts. In fact, he has just six (of 20) starts with more than five strikeouts all season.
Jacob Faria (.261 – 82.1% – 7.3) had a 34.7 K% at AAA this season and a 27.6 K% through his first month of major league action in June. July has cut his strikeout rate in half (13.3%) through three starts. The Orioles still have a 15.6 K-BB% against RHP, but have been smoking the ball over the last week.
Mike Foltynewicz (.301 – 79% – 13.4) has been pummeled by LHBs (.373 wOBA). With nearly a 100 point difference in his platoon split, teams may want to consider starting every LHB on the roster, including pitchers. Arizona is a bit more balanced, but still has some LH pop in a highly positive run environment.
Seth Lugo (.308 – 70.7% – 8.3) has put up reasonable results in most starts, going more than six innings in four of seven, but with fewer than six strikeouts in six straight. He has the largest negative gap between ERA and DRA on the slate.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Taijuan Walker will occasionally pop off eight or more strikeouts, which will keep his season rates on track, but just as last year, he’ll have a lot of starts with four or fewer (three of his last four). While I thought and hoped a foot injury last season had a lot to do with his inconsistencies, he’s been just as chaotic this year (perhaps it’s still due to injuries). Whatever the case, he faces a below average Braves offense, who don’t strike out a lot, but without a lot of power. An extremely positive run environment comes close to neutralizing the matchup. I’ll admit to his cost being a surprise though, nearly low enough to reconsider after this write up.
Jordan Montgomery has only been able to turn his 13.2 SwStr% into a 21.7 K% and even less over the last month (19.2%). He’s walked only 14 over his last 11 starts, so that’s not the issue and while his hard hit rate is just 26%, Statcast likes rather than loves his contact management so far. I can’t figure out why he’s not striking out at least a quarter of the batters he faces, but the potential is still there. The Reds have a bit of power, but reside in one of the few other parks in the league (besides Yankee Stadium) that can turn a 28.3 Hard% into a 15.2 HR/FB. Their 21.1 K% against LHP is in line with his season rate too. HRs have turned into a major problem for him though with 10 allowed over his last eight starts and although he threw 104 pitches last time out, it was only the second time he’s been above 100 all season. Two of his last three starts didn’t even last five innings. Still, he may be too cheap on DraftKings ($5.9K), where I’d certainly consider him as an SP2 if using a $9K+ arm as well.
Dan Straily has an exceptional BABIP profile, for which I’ll grant him the low BABIP, but concern remains for his faltering strikeout rate. Before striking out seven of 27 Phillies in his last start, he had struck out just 12 of his last 94. He’s allowed just 28.2% of batted balls at an exit velocity above 95 mph and the Rangers have a 24 K% vs RHP, but this is a dangerous park for a fly ball pitcher (17.3 HR/FB vs RHP).
Jon Gray has the lowest exit velocity on the board (83.1 mph), but strikeouts are way down. Actually, they’ve been more erratic than down. He’s accumulated exactly one in three of his seven starts this year, but seven or more in three of the other four. His SwStr% has been bouncing all over the place too. It’s been below 6% in four starts, but above 11% in his other three.
Cesar Valdes
Jhoulys Chacin has a below average 10.6 K-BB% with an 84.8 LOB% over the last month, but with an exceptional -8.1 Hard-Soft%. His 27.5% 95+ mph EV is one of the lowest marks on the board for the season. While his home ERA is fiver runs below his road ERA, his FIP is separated by less than a run and a half and his xFIP is essentially the same, just above four. The Mets have average power with just an 18.8 K% vs RHP this year.
Jesse Chavez has an 80.7 LOB% over the last month.
Jose Berrios is striking out fewer batters and is in a tough spot in LA tonight.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.8% | Road | 23.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Cesar Valdez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.3% | 8.1% | Home | 22.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 23.8% | 8.7% | Road | 26.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 9.6% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.3% | Home | 21.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 5.5% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.1% | 8.4% | Road | 21.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.7% | Road | 26.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.1% | 8.7% | Road | 24.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 13.7% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.0% | 10.4% | Home | 17.5% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.0% | Home | 20.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 4.2% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 22.3% | 7.4% | Home | 18.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.5% | 5.6% | Road | 22.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 4.4% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.5% | Road | 18.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.6% | Home | 20.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.9% | Home | 22.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.6% | 8.3% | Road | 25.0% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 11.6% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.7% | 7.5% | Home | 25.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 8.5% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.2% | 9.6% | Road | 19.2% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 12.2% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.4% | 6.8% | Home | 25.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 9.5% | Home | 18.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 2.1% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.3% | Road | 28.4% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 10.4% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.7% | 5.3% | Home | 27.0% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.0% | Home | 17.9% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.8% | 12.5% | Home | 24.4% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 8.7% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.2% | Road | 20.8% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 9.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.7% | 10.7% | Home | 33.7% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 17.0% | 7.6% | Road | 16.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 5.6% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.9% | Road | 19.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.8% | Home | 20.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.0% | 8.5% | Road | 17.6% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 16.3% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.8% | 6.8% | Road | 14.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 11.1% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 20.5% | 9.8% | LH | 20.7% | 12.6% | L7Days | 16.1% | 5.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.6% | 8.9% | RH | 25.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 10.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.0% | 8.4% | RH | 23.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.2% | 6.4% | LH | 20.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.9% | 9.5% | RH | 24.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.4% | 9.2% | LH | 19.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 16.1% | 6.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 8.7% | LH | 18.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 4.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.8% | 8.7% | RH | 25.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 30.8% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 8.8% | RH | 19.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 6.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.8% | 6.1% | RH | 22.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.2% |
| Giants | Home | 19.4% | 6.9% | RH | 19.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.7% |
| Indians | Home | 18.7% | 9.8% | RH | 19.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.9% | 10.6% |
| Mets | Road | 20.2% | 8.8% | RH | 18.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 4.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 6.0% | RH | 22.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 4.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.2% | 9.7% | RH | 21.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.7% |
| Reds | Road | 20.1% | 7.4% | LH | 21.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.0% | 10.5% | RH | 22.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.5% | 9.1% | RH | 22.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 11.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.2% | 7.5% | RH | 22.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.6% | 10.8% | RH | 22.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.0% | 8.9% | LH | 18.8% | 10.9% | L7Days | 15.7% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Road | 21.8% | 6.1% | RH | 20.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.1% |
| Angels | Road | 21.4% | 8.8% | RH | 20.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.8% | 9.5% | RH | 22.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.6% | 12.4% |
| Astros | Road | 17.6% | 8.8% | RH | 17.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.5% |
| Padres | Home | 24.9% | 8.5% | RH | 25.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.4% | 8.5% | RH | 20.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 11.0% |
| Braves | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | RH | 19.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.2% |
| Rays | Home | 24.9% | 9.8% | LH | 26.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 9.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 9.5% | RH | 19.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 5.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.2% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 2017 | 29.8% | 25.0% | 21.0% | Road | 29.2% | 14.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 66.7% | 23.1% |
| Cesar Valdez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 50.0% | 20.0% | 34.4% | 2017 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 34.4% | Home | 66.7% | 0.0% | 41.7% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 35.7% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 30.9% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2017 | 32.8% | 17.9% | 12.7% | Road | 29.7% | 15.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 18.2% | -19.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.0% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 2017 | 38.3% | 12.1% | 25.0% | Home | 35.5% | 14.4% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 15.8% | 30.3% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 2017 | 34.2% | 11.1% | 13.8% | Road | 30.9% | 14.5% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 14.3% | 27.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 2017 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 11.7% | Road | 31.0% | 13.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 0.0% | 9.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 2017 | 31.6% | 12.2% | 9.0% | Road | 30.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.5% | 17.8% | 2017 | 30.2% | 21.1% | 4.6% | Home | 27.2% | 12.1% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 22.2% | 5.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.9% | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2017 | 29.4% | 24.1% | 8.5% | Home | 31.2% | 16.7% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 27.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2017 | 27.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | Home | 29.4% | 11.1% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.8% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 2017 | 29.7% | 10.2% | 5.6% | Road | 30.6% | 16.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 23.3% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 34.5% | 17.5% | 17.8% | 2017 | 36.2% | 17.7% | 20.6% | Road | 40.7% | 16.7% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 28.6% | 35.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.0% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 2017 | 28.4% | 15.6% | 5.9% | Home | 27.6% | 7.6% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 12.5% | -16.2% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 33.6% | 15.9% | 18.1% | 2017 | 36.4% | 20.8% | 21.3% | Home | 34.3% | 14.5% | 17.4% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 2017 | 29.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | Road | 32.5% | 11.4% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.5% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2017 | 26.5% | 11.5% | 11.3% | Home | 31.2% | 11.9% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 2017 | 25.5% | 10.3% | 4.5% | Road | 30.2% | 15.8% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 7.2% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 2017 | 27.3% | 13.3% | 6.3% | Home | 26.1% | 9.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 25.0% | 18.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.6% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 2017 | 30.7% | 16.8% | 10.9% | Home | 21.0% | 12.0% | -0.7% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 7.7% | 17.9% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 30.7% | 21.2% | 10.2% | 2017 | 30.7% | 21.2% | 10.2% | Road | 32.6% | 23.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 16.7% | 6.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 30.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 2017 | 36.4% | 12.8% | 17.8% | Home | 32.1% | 7.6% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 21.1% | 23.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 2017 | 28.2% | 6.8% | 10.5% | Home | 32.9% | 8.3% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 2017 | 31.6% | 11.5% | 16.8% | Home | 32.2% | 12.7% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 29.6% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 2017 | 28.0% | 13.4% | 12.3% | Road | 28.5% | 16.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 7.1% | 10.5% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 39.0% | 19.0% | 25.7% | 2017 | 39.0% | 19.0% | 25.7% | Home | 40.3% | 25.8% | 27.4% | L14 Days | 58.8% | 30.8% | 44.1% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 34.4% | 9.4% | 16.7% | 2017 | 29.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% | Road | 32.4% | 6.9% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 31.5% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 2017 | 28.9% | 13.3% | 12.7% | Road | 34.9% | 21.9% | 20.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.0% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 2017 | 33.6% | 9.4% | 18.7% | Home | 30.9% | 15.2% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.7% | -5.0% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.6% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 2017 | 32.8% | 20.5% | 14.6% | Road | 35.4% | 17.7% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 33.3% | 20.6% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 2017 | 29.8% | 15.7% | 9.0% | Road | 28.6% | 12.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 11.1% | 2.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 31.4% | 15.8% | 13.9% | LH | 29.7% | 18.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 35.1% | 14.5% | 21.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 35.0% | 12.8% | 16.0% | RH | 33.5% | 15.3% | 16.8% | L7Days | 27.7% | 14.3% | 10.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.7% | 14.7% | 10.8% | RH | 31.0% | 11.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 36.6% | 14.6% | 18.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.9% | 14.6% | 9.8% | LH | 27.3% | 15.5% | 3.6% | L7Days | 36.0% | 17.4% | 14.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 35.9% | 16.8% | 17.3% | RH | 33.8% | 17.3% | 14.4% | L7Days | 30.7% | 16.7% | 14.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 46.1% | 13.8% | 32.7% | LH | 40.8% | 17.3% | 25.8% | L7Days | 32.9% | 10.1% | 16.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 28.9% | 12.2% | 9.5% | LH | 30.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.3% | 1.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.3% | 17.9% | 11.5% | RH | 33.7% | 19.4% | 14.5% | L7Days | 28.8% | 13.2% | 10.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.3% | 11.4% | 12.2% | RH | 34.4% | 10.4% | 16.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.0% | 13.7% | 14.5% | RH | 31.5% | 15.6% | 10.8% | L7Days | 39.4% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Giants | Home | 25.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | RH | 28.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% |
| Indians | Home | 31.1% | 12.3% | 13.3% | RH | 33.7% | 11.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 31.3% | 9.8% | 12.0% |
| Mets | Road | 36.6% | 15.7% | 19.0% | RH | 34.9% | 13.2% | 17.6% | L7Days | 35.1% | 11.1% | 18.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 31.6% | 14.0% | 14.2% | RH | 31.2% | 13.4% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 10.3% | 14.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.5% | 12.9% | 13.3% | RH | 31.7% | 13.5% | 12.7% | L7Days | 28.7% | 12.7% | 10.5% |
| Reds | Road | 30.6% | 14.0% | 11.5% | LH | 28.3% | 15.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.3% | 10.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.6% | 17.9% | 21.4% | RH | 35.6% | 15.3% | 20.2% | L7Days | 37.0% | 20.0% | 22.6% |
| Twins | Road | 30.2% | 12.6% | 11.8% | RH | 33.1% | 12.7% | 16.3% | L7Days | 33.6% | 8.8% | 16.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.4% | 11.6% | 8.3% | RH | 30.2% | 13.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 43.0% | 26.5% | 29.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.8% | 19.8% | 9.9% | RH | 31.9% | 16.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.4% | 11.3% | 14.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.9% | 12.6% | 10.6% | LH | 30.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 16.7% | 8.8% |
| Royals | Road | 31.8% | 15.1% | 12.1% | RH | 31.9% | 12.2% | 12.6% | L7Days | 30.1% | 18.6% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Road | 33.0% | 11.1% | 13.8% | RH | 30.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | L7Days | 34.9% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.0% | 16.0% | 23.6% | RH | 35.9% | 15.1% | 18.6% | L7Days | 34.1% | 20.3% | 16.5% |
| Astros | Road | 33.8% | 16.6% | 15.6% | RH | 33.8% | 16.5% | 16.3% | L7Days | 37.9% | 18.8% | 22.0% |
| Padres | Home | 28.2% | 12.9% | 6.3% | RH | 28.5% | 14.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 30.4% | 13.9% | 14.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.6% | 13.7% | 9.1% | RH | 30.7% | 14.7% | 10.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Braves | Road | 31.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | RH | 30.6% | 11.6% | 11.8% | L7Days | 31.4% | 14.8% | 9.8% |
| Rays | Home | 37.6% | 15.9% | 19.6% | LH | 34.5% | 12.3% | 13.6% | L7Days | 28.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.9% | 14.0% | 15.2% | RH | 31.8% | 14.9% | 14.7% | L7Days | 32.8% | 13.0% | 13.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 21.7% | 10.9% | 1.99 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 1.99 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | 16.3% | 12.3% | 1.33 | 33.3% | 18.8% | 1.77 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 25.5% | 10.4% | 2.45 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 2.21 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 14.0% | 7.8% | 1.79 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.06 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.00 | 15.7% | 8.9% | 1.76 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 19.3% | 11.4% | 1.69 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 2.00 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 24.8% | 10.3% | 2.41 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 2.19 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 9.6% | 9.6% | 1.00 | 13.0% | 11.0% | 1.18 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 22.4% | 9.4% | 2.38 | 25.8% | 9.9% | 2.61 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 22.3% | 11.9% | 1.87 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 1.56 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 23.2% | 8.8% | 2.64 | 27.4% | 9.6% | 2.85 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 18.3% | 8.1% | 2.26 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 2.37 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 20.0% | 8.5% | 2.35 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 2.44 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 19.4% | 9.7% | 2.00 | 8.3% | 5.8% | 1.43 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 21.5% | 8.3% | 2.59 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 2.61 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 21.7% | 13.2% | 1.64 | 19.1% | 13.2% | 1.45 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.35 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 2.20 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 23.3% | 13.3% | 1.75 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 1.89 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 21.5% | 9.1% | 2.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.16 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 29.5% | 13.3% | 2.22 | 30.7% | 13.9% | 2.21 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.2% | 9.1% | 2.55 | 19.2% | 5.0% | 3.84 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.4% | 9.3% | 1.87 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 1.96 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 27.8% | 13.6% | 2.04 | 29.7% | 13.9% | 2.14 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.1% | 8.6% | 2.34 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 2.34 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 23.7% | 8.2% | 2.89 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.61 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.05 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 1.93 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.7% | 11.8% | 1.92 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 1.72 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 20.0% | 9.2% | 2.17 | 14.7% | 7.3% | 2.01 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.58 | 15.7% | 7.3% | 2.15 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.2% | 7.1% | 2.14 | 14.1% | 6.2% | 2.27 |
At least Danny Duffy has normalized over the last month, but why doesn’t Jordan Montgomery get more strikeouts?
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 5.75 | 5.51 | -0.24 | 5.15 | -0.6 | 6.59 | 0.84 | 7.78 | 2.03 | 5.75 | 5.52 | -0.23 | 5.15 | -0.6 | 6.59 | 0.84 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | 6.05 | 4.79 | -1.26 | 5.25 | -0.8 | 6.3 | 0.25 | 5.56 | -0.49 | 1.59 | 2.12 | 0.53 | 2.57 | 0.98 | 0.68 | -0.91 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.18 | 3.91 | -0.27 | 3.75 | -0.43 | 4.14 | -0.04 | 4.11 | -0.07 | 4.58 | 4.16 | -0.42 | 4.29 | -0.29 | 4.68 | 0.1 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.78 | 5.16 | 1.38 | 5.07 | 1.29 | 4.86 | 1.08 | 4.68 | 0.90 | 4.55 | 4.68 | 0.13 | 4.69 | 0.14 | 4.41 | -0.14 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 3.49 | 4.22 | 0.73 | 4.52 | 1.03 | 4.08 | 0.59 | 3.54 | 0.05 | 3.68 | 4.99 | 1.31 | 5.16 | 1.48 | 5.02 | 1.34 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.71 | 4.55 | 0.84 | 4.56 | 0.85 | 3.51 | -0.2 | 4.39 | 0.68 | 4.15 | 3.84 | -0.31 | 3.8 | -0.35 | 3.38 | -0.77 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.51 | 4.11 | 0.6 | 3.89 | 0.38 | 3.7 | 0.19 | 3.68 | 0.17 | 2.12 | 4.83 | 2.71 | 4.44 | 2.32 | 3.25 | 1.13 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 4.5 | 6.01 | 1.51 | 6.14 | 1.64 | 7.65 | 3.15 | 6.52 | 2.02 | 2.57 | 4.86 | 2.29 | 4.59 | 2.02 | 6.01 | 3.44 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.88 | 3.92 | 0.04 | 3.73 | -0.15 | 4.89 | 1.01 | 3.31 | -0.57 | 3 | 4.08 | 1.08 | 3.96 | 0.96 | 4.58 | 1.58 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 2.52 | 4.26 | 1.74 | 4.45 | 1.93 | 3.53 | 1.01 | 4.56 | 2.04 | 3.26 | 4.96 | 1.7 | 5.47 | 2.21 | 4.83 | 1.57 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 3.08 | 3.87 | 0.79 | 3.48 | 0.4 | 3.18 | 0.1 | 3.71 | 0.63 | 2.49 | 3.25 | 0.76 | 2.79 | 0.3 | 1.72 | -0.77 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.88 | 4.72 | -0.16 | 4.68 | -0.2 | 5.28 | 0.4 | 5.28 | 0.40 | 3.8 | 4.59 | 0.79 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 4.32 | 0.52 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.26 | 4.35 | 0.09 | 4.18 | -0.08 | 4.39 | 0.13 | 4.49 | 0.23 | 2.37 | 4.48 | 2.11 | 4.15 | 1.78 | 3.71 | 1.34 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.04 | 4.53 | -0.51 | 4.64 | -0.4 | 5.71 | 0.67 | 6.50 | 1.46 | 6.61 | 5.91 | -0.7 | 5.96 | -0.65 | 6.52 | -0.09 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 6.19 | 4.43 | -1.76 | 4.08 | -2.11 | 3.68 | -2.51 | 5.08 | -1.11 | 7.32 | 4.05 | -3.27 | 4.06 | -3.26 | 3.2 | -4.12 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 4.09 | 4.34 | 0.25 | 4.58 | 0.49 | 4.22 | 0.13 | 4.59 | 0.50 | 5.06 | 4.44 | -0.62 | 4.92 | -0.14 | 5.1 | 0.04 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.5 | 4.18 | 0.68 | 4.46 | 0.96 | 3.98 | 0.48 | 3.74 | 0.24 | 5.26 | 4.72 | -0.54 | 4.85 | -0.41 | 5.37 | 0.11 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 4.23 | 4.02 | -0.21 | 4.1 | -0.13 | 4.04 | -0.19 | 4.66 | 0.43 | 3.05 | 4.27 | 1.22 | 3.98 | 0.93 | 3.68 | 0.63 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.3 | 4.43 | 1.13 | 4.54 | 1.24 | 4.97 | 1.67 | 4.78 | 1.48 | 3.22 | 4.48 | 1.26 | 4.4 | 1.18 | 4.22 | 1 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.86 | 3.71 | -0.15 | 3.66 | -0.2 | 4.58 | 0.72 | 4.34 | 0.48 | 3.9 | 3.35 | -0.55 | 3.4 | -0.5 | 3.78 | -0.12 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.57 | 3.8 | 0.23 | 3.94 | 0.37 | 3.79 | 0.22 | 3.59 | 0.02 | 4.73 | 4.59 | -0.14 | 4.87 | 0.14 | 6.22 | 1.49 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.35 | 4.36 | 1.01 | 4.18 | 0.83 | 3.35 | 0 | 3.04 | -0.31 | 3.51 | 4.6 | 1.09 | 4.45 | 0.94 | 4.08 | 0.57 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 2.73 | 4.28 | 1.55 | 4.18 | 1.45 | 3.91 | 1.18 | 3.14 | 0.41 | 0.75 | 4.02 | 3.27 | 3.76 | 3.01 | 2.82 | 2.07 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.87 | 4.56 | 0.69 | 4.57 | 0.7 | 4.53 | 0.66 | 5.56 | 1.69 | 3.16 | 4.57 | 1.41 | 4.67 | 1.51 | 3.97 | 0.81 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.58 | 4.52 | -1.06 | 4.73 | -0.85 | 5.57 | -0.01 | 6.13 | 0.55 | 7.33 | 4.9 | -2.43 | 5.5 | -1.83 | 7.19 | -0.14 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 4.05 | 4.73 | 0.68 | 4.6 | 0.55 | 3.88 | -0.17 | 6.41 | 2.36 | 4.28 | 4.43 | 0.15 | 4.33 | 0.05 | 3.52 | -0.76 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 3.66 | 3.81 | 0.15 | 3.41 | -0.25 | 3.38 | -0.28 | 3.19 | -0.47 | 1.62 | 3.54 | 1.92 | 3.23 | 1.61 | 2.94 | 1.32 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.61 | 4.5 | 0.89 | 4.42 | 0.81 | 3.87 | 0.26 | 4.10 | 0.49 | 4.07 | 5.19 | 1.12 | 5.22 | 1.15 | 4.92 | 0.85 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5.58 | 5.08 | -0.5 | 4.66 | -0.92 | 5.36 | -0.22 | 5.68 | 0.10 | 9.41 | 5.81 | -3.6 | 5.43 | -3.98 | 7.51 | -1.9 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.76 | 4.83 | 0.07 | 4.65 | -0.11 | 4.89 | 0.13 | 5.41 | 0.65 | 3.16 | 4.83 | 1.67 | 4.48 | 1.32 | 3.88 | 0.72 |
Felix Hernandez has a high line drive rate, which has led to an elevated BABIP and a high rate of barrels has led to an elevated HR rate. This has mostly been tempered by an unsustainable 83.3 LOB%, but just as we’d expect that to regress, the BABIP and HR rate may too. Overall contact hasn’t been that bad according to Statcast. In fact, he’s the only pitcher with a DRA below five with a positive gap of at least a half a run between ERA and DRA.
Mike Clevinger has just a .230 BABIP (.186 in July) with an 83.1 LOB% (88.2% in July).
Sonny Gray has a .184 BABIP and 81.1 LOB% over the last month.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.288 | 0.250 | -0.038 | 42.1% | 0.228 | 0.0% | 80.0% | 89.7 | 10.50% | 43.90% | 57 |
| Cesar Valdez | TOR | 0.307 | 0.305 | -0.002 | 39.1% | 0.219 | 0.0% | 78.9% | 90.5 | 10.90% | 48.40% | 64 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.295 | 0.303 | 0.008 | 51.2% | 0.212 | 10.7% | 84.1% | 86 | 4.40% | 35.30% | 204 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.229 | -0.06 | 47.2% | 0.19 | 7.6% | 89.8% | 87.7 | 4.60% | 35.20% | 196 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | 0.293 | 0.264 | -0.029 | 35.7% | 0.185 | 15.3% | 86.3% | 86.4 | 6.90% | 28.20% | 319 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.315 | 0.016 | 40.4% | 0.207 | 10.3% | 86.4% | 86.3 | 4.60% | 29.70% | 283 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.305 | 0.315 | 0.01 | 42.0% | 0.233 | 10.2% | 85.1% | 87.5 | 6.90% | 33.70% | 288 |
| Edwin Jackson | WAS | 0.293 | 0.256 | -0.037 | 31.0% | 0.238 | 21.1% | 86.4% | 88.6 | 14.00% | 34.90% | 43 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.320 | 0.041 | 45.9% | 0.249 | 11.1% | 90.4% | 86.7 | 10.20% | 32.10% | 187 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.284 | 0.261 | -0.023 | 40.1% | 0.197 | 18.2% | 86.4% | 86.4 | 5.80% | 33.30% | 138 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.308 | 0.343 | 0.035 | 52.2% | 0.242 | 8.2% | 88.3% | 85.1 | 4.70% | 29.70% | 212 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.288 | 0.003 | 40.4% | 0.225 | 5.6% | 87.2% | 88.8 | 9.30% | 41.30% | 334 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.285 | -0.022 | 52.9% | 0.183 | 14.6% | 89.5% | 85.8 | 5.90% | 27.50% | 338 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.283 | 0.271 | -0.012 | 42.9% | 0.19 | 8.3% | 87.0% | 87.2 | 7.70% | 37.00% | 324 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.302 | 0.390 | 0.088 | 46.1% | 0.255 | 10.3% | 93.5% | 83.1 | 4.90% | 29.10% | 103 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.290 | 0.286 | -0.004 | 41.5% | 0.151 | 7.7% | 85.3% | 86.5 | 7.30% | 30.50% | 302 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.298 | 0.274 | -0.024 | 42.3% | 0.185 | 11.5% | 85.0% | 85.8 | 5.40% | 28.10% | 224 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.280 | 0.288 | 0.008 | 37.9% | 0.225 | 10.0% | 81.4% | 83.7 | 3.40% | 26.10% | 238 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.294 | 0.225 | -0.069 | 42.9% | 0.179 | 10.4% | 81.8% | 86.6 | 7.10% | 30.00% | 323 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.293 | 0.272 | -0.021 | 55.7% | 0.068 | 9.1% | 82.5% | 87.1 | 4.50% | 34.10% | 88 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.317 | 0.259 | -0.058 | 43.5% | 0.157 | 8.5% | 88.8% | 86.8 | 5.90% | 35.60% | 118 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.272 | -0.037 | 49.6% | 0.202 | 11.1% | 88.1% | 85.7 | 4.60% | 27.90% | 390 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.303 | 0.230 | -0.073 | 39.0% | 0.214 | 8.2% | 79.3% | 88 | 7.10% | 32.30% | 155 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.301 | 0.009 | 38.3% | 0.241 | 7.6% | 85.7% | 86.7 | 6.20% | 32.30% | 325 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.297 | 0.296 | -0.001 | 38.7% | 0.18 | 8.3% | 87.6% | 88.6 | 9.20% | 40.00% | 195 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.320 | 0.308 | -0.012 | 45.6% | 0.218 | 6.3% | 88.2% | 86.2 | 4.70% | 35.30% | 150 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.292 | 0.282 | -0.01 | 55.3% | 0.212 | 3.3% | 86.1% | 86.7 | 5.80% | 40.00% | 260 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.294 | 0.288 | -0.006 | 47.9% | 0.198 | 7.1% | 85.8% | 87.7 | 5.20% | 34.70% | 268 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.315 | 0.349 | 0.034 | 52.1% | 0.227 | 7.7% | 91.1% | 87.3 | 6.70% | 35.70% | 314 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.317 | 0.017 | 49.7% | 0.219 | 10.8% | 89.3% | 86.1 | 5.70% | 32.80% | 366 |
Jameson Taillon having a .343 BABIP seems a bit fluky. The line drive rate is high, but he hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact. Regression there would probably even out with regression in his 80% strand rate.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Luis Castillo has one of the more difficult matchups on the slate against what may finally be a rested Yankee lineup, but he has exhibited one of the top upsides on the board for just $7K. While I’d consider him the top value on DraftKings, I’d move Taillon ahead of him for just $1.1K more on FanDuel.
Jameson Taillon (1) has shown an inability to get deep into games, but he’s been consistently above 100 pitches over the last month with an increase in strikeouts and swinging strikes recently. He’s been a strong contact manager in the best contact management spot. At $2.6K more on DraftKings, the highest priced pitcher on that site, he drops in line with just about every other pitcher on this list in terms of value. I’m seeing very little separation among most of these pitchers in terms of point per dollar expectations there.
Value Tier Two
Felix Hernandez (2) is coming off his best start of the season and is in another strong spot at home, even if it’s not a high strikeout one. He now has at least eight Ks in two of his last three starts. We may never see the King again, but for less than $9K in a nice spot, I’d settle for a Prince.
Value Tier Three
Charlie Morton has as much upside as any pitcher on this board, but is probably nearing the limit of where we can expect him to generate excess value at close to $9K. The Phillies have been improving, but should still be a favorable matchup.
Drew Pomeranz may have a little less upside in his strikeout rate than Morton, but has a park advantage (if not a matchup advantage) and is probably a better overall pitcher, costing $1K less on DraftKings. I’d really just toss a coin on these two though.
Kenta Maeda has reduced his SwStr% and strikeout over the last month with the other issue being an inability to throw more than five innings most times. The compensation comes in the form of excellent contact management in a great park. You might be able to squeeze a bit more than $8K of value out of that in a favorable matchup.
Sonny Gray has been good, but not great with a very high price tag now. In fact, he’s the second most expensive pitcher on either site.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Clevinger may be pitching a bit above his head right now and I’m not sure I trust him not to fall back into old habits for $9K, but we can’t deny that he’s always been able to miss bats and may be pitching better than he ever has at this level.
Madison Bumgarner is not all the way back yet, maybe not even close. He’s also expensive, one of the few high priced arms who actually costs more on FanDuel. That said, he’s not in a bad spot and we’re not ready to completely ignore the track record in a decent spot on this slate without any real stand out arms.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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