Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, July 31st
One game away from a full night slate on Tuesday and while there are a number of solid pitchers on the board, it really only boasts one elite arm. Let’s just hope the listed pitchers late Monday night are all still starting by the time Tuesday night rolls around at the trade deadline. At least a couple of these guys have been mentioned as trade targets. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees pick up another pitcher today, especially with Severino now down for a bit. Things have been (edit: I read some wrong info. Severino is not on the DL.) HappLynn for that rotation this week.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 2.8 | 4.80 | 5.5 | 42.4% | 1.00 | 4.88 | 5.43 | Diamondbacks | 93 | 86 | 120 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.8 | 3.56 | 5.9 | 51.1% | 0.91 | 3.77 | 5.04 | Mariners | 100 | 101 | 96 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -2.7 | 4.25 | 6.1 | 59.2% | 0.91 | 3.52 | 6.43 | Giants | 81 | 90 | 88 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.5 | 4.55 | 5.5 | 33.3% | 0.99 | 4.77 | 5.16 | Braves | 88 | 95 | 57 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 4.9 | 4.37 | 6.1 | 37.2% | 0.96 | 4.67 | 4.79 | White Sox | 97 | 85 | 121 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | -6.4 | 4.26 | 5.8 | 40.6% | 0.91 | 4.53 | 4.04 | Padres | 93 | 79 | 66 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 6 | 4.32 | 5.3 | 42.6% | 1.12 | 4.24 | 4.69 | Phillies | 88 | 86 | 96 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -2.4 | 4.95 | 4.9 | 42.8% | 1.02 | 4.82 | 3.20 | Tigers | 89 | 77 | 64 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | -0.9 | 3.66 | 5.0 | 44.4% | 0.93 | 3.69 | 3.10 | Rockies | 85 | 80 | 91 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -8.1 | 4.34 | 5.7 | 49.3% | 1.12 | 4.16 | 5.00 | Red Sox | 120 | 116 | 99 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -5.3 | 4.98 | 5.7 | 36.9% | 0.96 | 5.07 | 4.04 | Royals | 83 | 83 | 114 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | -3.1 | 3.94 | 5.5 | 49.1% | 0.97 | 3.45 | 3.55 | Cubs | 100 | 106 | 83 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | -1.8 | 3.55 | 5.5 | 46.6% | 0.93 | 3.33 | 3.26 | Cardinals | 91 | 94 | 95 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.12 | 5.9 | 43.6% | 0.97 | 4.14 | 5.10 | Pirates | 101 | 94 | 96 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.5 | 4.56 | 5.8 | 48.0% | 1.04 | 4.18 | 4.07 | Indians | 98 | 106 | 125 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 6.2 | 3.55 | 6.0 | 48.5% | 1.03 | 3.15 | 1.35 | Orioles | 75 | 87 | 180 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 2.7 | 4.64 | 5.3 | 36.0% | 1.02 | 5.07 | 2.96 | Reds | 101 | 107 | 115 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | -1.4 | 4.31 | 5.9 | 52.3% | 0.91 | 4.08 | 4.41 | Astros | 114 | 108 | 50 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 2 | 4.15 | 4.6 | 38.7% | 0.94 | 4.21 | 6.39 | Angels | 103 | 81 | 157 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | -4 | 4.51 | 5.2 | 49.2% | 0.95 | 4.79 | 4.04 | Athletics | 91 | 107 | 132 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | -5.4 | 4.26 | 5.4 | 48.5% | 1.00 | 4.93 | 3.93 | Nationals | 99 | 94 | 100 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | -4.1 | 4.41 | 6.0 | 45.8% | 1.00 | 4.08 | 1.94 | Mets | 101 | 93 | 102 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 5.8 | 3.67 | 6.1 | 46.0% | 1.04 | 3.65 | 3.59 | Twins | 100 | 97 | 76 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 2.3 | 4.08 | 5.4 | 57.3% | 0.95 | 3.17 | 4.91 | Blue Jays | 96 | 102 | 113 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 3.5 | 4.05 | 5.4 | 44.4% | 0.94 | 3.73 | 4.18 | Rays | 104 | 104 | 86 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 6.2 | 4.71 | 4.9 | 50.5% | 0.90 | 4.64 | 5.60 | Dodgers | 107 | 92 | 77 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.53 | 5.5 | 51.0% | 0.90 | 3.12 | 3.67 | Brewers | 95 | 96 | 109 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | -8.8 | 3.83 | 4.6 | 41.1% | 1.03 | 5.07 | 4.01 | Yankees | 124 | 109 | 110 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.96 | 5.8 | 53.3% | 1.00 | 3.60 | 4.04 | Rangers | 87 | 92 | 126 |
| Kolby Allard | Braves | 4.2 | 0.99 | Marlins | 88 | 77 | 70 |
Charlie Morton has struck out just five in each of his last two starts. He doesn’t have a steadily high floor, but his 30.6 K% is second best on the board, as is his .288 xwOBA. His 3.39 SIERA is third. While he’s struck out five or less in seven starts, he’s reached double digits six times (though just twice since May). The Mariners have been an average offense in a negative run environment, but have just a 20 K% vs RHP.
Danny Duffy has struck out just 10 of his last 57 batters and allowed seven runs to the Tigers last time out, so perhaps his little run is over, but he still has seven innings with a single run or less in four of his last 12 starts and at least six innings in 10 of those with a great matchup tonight (White Sox 18.6 K-BB% at home, 85 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% vs LHP).
Jack Flaherty has the third best strikeout rate on the board (29.7%) and is fourth best in SIERA (3.40) and xwOBA (.290). His 85.9 mph aEV tops the board among tonight’s starters. He hasn’t exceeded five innings in four straight starts, but has struck out 17 of his last 41 batters. Home runs have been a bit of a problem (17.6 HR/FB) despite the spacious home park and low exit velocity. He may be in the top park adjusted spot on the board, hosting the Rockies (80 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP).
Jameson Taillon started throwing his slider in earnest in his 11th start of the season with the following results: 3.09 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 18.2 K-BB%, 50.8 GB%. For some reason, he’s been below 20% on the pitch in each of his last three starts with an increase in curveballs. Perhaps those were matchup based against three teams heavy in left-handed power (Indians, Reds, Brewers), but what he’s basically done is added some upside to a strong contact management profile, while averaging over six innings per start over that span. The Cubs have just an 11.2 K-BB% with a 106 wRC+ vs RHP, so it’s not going to be easy, but it’s doable.
Jon Gray has struck out just 12 of 52 batters since returning from the minors, but has also allowed just two earned runs over 14.1 innings to the Astros and Mariners at Coors. He went back to his ground ball centric ways at home, sacrificing strikeouts for ground balls (65% or better in both starts). Last year, on the road, he generally attempted to generate more strikeouts. Let’s hope that trend continues. His 28.2 K% is fourth best on the board, his 3.23 SIERA is second. It’s a massive park upgrade in St Louis, where he’ll face a below average offense by wRC+, though nothing really stands out by peripherals.
Masahiro Tanaka threw a three hit shutout, striking out nine of 29 Rays in his first start after the break. His 13.9 SwStr% is tops on the board. This will amazingly be only his sixth Yankee Stadium start of the year and the Orioles have a 180 wRC+ over the last week with a 1.4 K-BB% and 23.5 HR/FB after dumping Machado. They have an 87 wRC+ and 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP.
Matt Boyd has been a bit streaky this year. Over the last month, he has a 27.4 K% and has allowed just three runs to Kansas City and Boston over his last 11 innings after allowing six HRs over his previous five starts, in which he didn’t allow fewer than three runs once. Statcast believes he’s one of the top contact managers on the board (86.3 mph aEV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE) with only 29.4% of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity, best among today’s starters. His HR rate has dropped every year in the league and is at a potentially unsustainable 8.8 HR/FB this year, despite that recent rough patch. The Reds are really tough on LHP (10.5 K-BB%, 13.5 HR/FB, 107 wRC+) because they have some LHBs who can hit same handed pitching. The other side of that is that they just traded one of their top RH power bats, but he was also responsible for a pretty high strikeout rate.
Trevor Bauer leads the board with a 31.6 K%, 3.14 SIERA and .273 xwOBA. He’s recorded a seventh inning out in 16 of 22 starts this season and has reached double digit strikeouts nine times, while greatly improving contact management this season (87.1 mph aEV, 4.5 Barrels/BBE, 30.1% 95+ mph EV). The Twins are a marginal opponent (97 wRC+, 12.2 K-BB% vs RHP). Minnesota is actually one of the more positive run environments on the board tonight, but still a park upgrade for him. The Twins have just a 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year and just traded one of their top LH bats.
Trevor Cahill needs to stay out of the state of Texas. In trips to Texas and Houston so far: 19.2 IP – 14 ER – 2 HR – 9 BB – 18 K – 86 BF). The rest on the league: 43.2 IP – 10 ER – 11 BB – 41 K – 165 BF). He’s also been below a 57 GB% just once outside that state, as opposed to below that all four times pitching in it. His 13.0 SwStr% is a top five mark on tonight’s board. He pitches against a decent Toronto offense, but in a favorable home park.
Tyler Skaggs has struck out one Houston batter and then nine Chicago (AL) batters over his last two starts, the latter a season high. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts and has allowed more than one ER just once over that span. Who had him as the Ace of this staff this year? He moves from one favorable park to another in Tampa Bay tonight. The Rays aren’t a bad offense, but do have a few strikeouts in that lineup (23.7% vs LHP).
Walker Buehler allowed five ERs in five innings in his first post-break start in Philadelphia and has now allowed five HRs to his last 51 batters going back to his last June start. He did reach 90 pitches in his last start and has a 25.3 K% on the season (not entirely supported by SwStr%). The Milwaukee offense is dangerous (16.3 HR/FB), but they have just a 96 wRC+ with a 25.1 K% vs RHP as well and will bat in the most negative run environment on the board.
Zack Godley has a 25.6 K% with a 15 SwStr% over the last month with a 3.91 SIERA over that span, due to a .378 BABIP and 62.2 LOB%. The hard contact rate is a bit higher than you’d like, but not outrageous and he still has an above average ground ball rate. He hasn’t been as good as last year, but he’s in a high upside matchup at home (Rangers 92 wRC+, 25.6 K% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Wade Miley (.261 – 81.3% – 0.0) is very cheap in the top park and has excelled at generating a lot of weak (86.4 mph aEV) ground balls (53.1%) in front of one of the top defenses. The Dodgers have just a 92 wRC+ vs LHP, but a split high 10.4 BB% and Miley has one more walk than strikeout, while Machado should improve their numbers vs LHP.
Yefry Ramirez (.257 – 82.1% – 14.7) is an interesting arm (25.6 K%, 13.4 SwStr%) in an uninteresting spot (Yankees 124 wRC+, 18.4 HR/FB at home) even without Judge.
Jon Lester (.257 – 81.5% – 12.3 – 12.8% unearned run rate) is coming off his first strong start for the month of July. While the Cubs’ defense is so good, I’m not concerned about the .257 BABIP much (though why so many unearned runs?). However, he’s been below .260 twice with the Cubs now and above .300 the other two seasons. He’s never had a LD rate this high though (24.5%). He now has just a 19.1 K% and just a 6.2 SwStr% over the last month and is facing an offense that doesn’t strike out too much (21.9% vs LHP). His xwOBA (.360) is actually sixth highest on the board.
Steven Matz (.265 – 76.3% – 15.9 – 13.5% unearned run rate) struck out nine Pirates last time out, but has allowed four HRs over his last three starts, allowing at least three runs in each, one of those against Washington.
Dan Straily (.245 – 78.7% – 16.5) is a fly ball pitcher with a career .262 BABIP, so this is not that bad, but the strand rate is probably too high for the below average strikeout rate. The Braves aren’t a terribly powerful offense, but aren’t going to increase that strikeout rate (20.6% vs RHP).
Jake Arrieta (.279 – 65.3% – 12.1 – _28.3% unearned run rate) is in Boston tonight. How the hell does a qualified starting pitcher go through a season with over one-quarter of his runs unearned?
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Leake is never someone I’m paying $7.8K for on FanDuel, but the Astros are banged up and in a negative run environment. He still has the highest aEV on the board (89.8 mph), but has his Barrels/BBE rate down to 7% with a 53.1 GB% over his last 14 starts, pitching into the seventh inning in eight of those starts. I don’t mind him for $5.7K on DraftKings with the knowledge that there’s little upside and a lot of risk here.
Ryan Yarbrough is not starting, but hasn’t pitched in five days and is likely to throw more innings than Ryne Stanek today. How many innings? Who knows? He does have the lowest aEV on the board (85.4 mph) with a near league average strikeout rate and costs just $5.8K on FanDuel.
James Shields had everyone biting on a three game slate last time out in LA (AL) and failed to complete six innings for only the third time in 18 starts. He may be fine here, against a Kansas City offense (83 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP), who just traded their best hitter, but without much upside (20 K% vs RHP). I don’t absolutely hate him for $6K on DraftKings though, if you want to pay up for Bauer.
Kolby Allard has a 12.1 K-BB% in 18 AAA starts that’s not very impressive, but he’s just 20 years-old and does have a 50 Future Value grade on his Fangraphs page. He’s probably more interesting for the future than he is today and may not even be available on FanDuel, but he’s a reasonable $6.3K on DraftKings against the Marlins (77 wRC+, 7.8 HR/FB vs LHP).
Sam Gaviglio missed eight innings by a single out with eight strikeouts against Baltimore two starts back. The other three of his last four starts: 10 IP – 10 ER – 6 K – 50 BF). He may not be terrible at a low price (especially $5.6K on DraftKings) and may even have some upside in a nice park, but the A’s have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball in July (121 wRC+).
Tanner Roark costs $9.1K on DraftKings?? He’s coming off a great start in Milwaukee (8 IP – 0 R – 11 K), but had allowed at least four runs in five of his previous six starts with more than five strikeouts in just one of those starts.
Kyle Gibson faces the Indians and may be one of those pitchers on the trade block this afternoon. He has been above a 14 SwStr% in four straight starts and has thrown eight innings with one run and at least seven strikeouts in two of his last three starts (most recently against the Red Sox).
Home Bailey
Drew Pomeranz has some standout numbers (not in a good way) on the Statcast board.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.2% | 4.5% | 13.8% | 20.6% | Season | 13.7% | 4.0% | 16.5% | 26.3% | Road | 12.6% | 4.1% | 13.6% | 21.6% | L14Days | 11.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 27.3% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.3% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 7.2% | Season | 30.6% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 10.3% | Road | 27.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 11.4% | L14Days | 20.0% | 16.0% | 33.3% | |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 16.9% | Season | 17.1% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 20.0% | Home | 19.2% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 18.9% | L14Days | 10.3% | 15.4% | 25.0% | -10.3% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 19.1% | Season | 19.3% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 29.1% | Road | 20.0% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 16.6% | L14Days | 18.0% | 12.0% | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 18.5% | Season | 20.2% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 21.8% | Road | 21.6% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 15.9% | L14Days | 17.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 9.5% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 29.4% | Season | 19.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 29.4% | Road | 18.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 35.3% | L14Days | 20.4% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 48.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 14.7% | Season | 20.5% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 19.7% | Home | 23.0% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 16.4% | L14Days | 18.2% | 9.1% | 50.0% | 31.3% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 20.2% | Season | 14.5% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 29.0% | Road | 16.3% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 20.2% | L14Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 25.0% | |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 27.9% | 9.0% | 18.3% | 12.9% | Season | 29.7% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 12.1% | Home | 27.1% | 7.4% | 17.8% | 7.1% | L14Days | 41.5% | 14.6% | 42.9% | 25.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 7.4% | Season | 17.2% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 9.4% | Road | 20.4% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 11.8% | L14Days | 19.1% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 17.2% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 18.4% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 17.2% | Season | 17.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 18.6% | Home | 18.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 15.6% | L14Days | 24.5% | 8.2% | 25.0% | 21.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | Season | 23.1% | 6.5% | 11.7% | 11.6% | Home | 23.5% | 6.4% | 13.8% | 4.8% | L14Days | 21.6% | 3.9% | 15.8% | |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 26.4% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 11.9% | Season | 28.2% | 6.9% | 18.5% | Road | 26.7% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 14.8% | L14Days | 24.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | ||
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 11.5% | Season | 19.1% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 18.6% | Road | 22.1% | 8.5% | 15.7% | 14.2% | L14Days | 18.6% | 11.6% | 30.0% | 26.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 9.0% | 15.3% | 19.4% | Season | 23.6% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 18.6% | Home | 19.6% | 8.6% | 18.9% | 22.4% | L14Days | 22.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 16.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 24.8% | 5.3% | 19.9% | 12.9% | Season | 24.9% | 6.2% | 20.9% | 17.6% | Home | 28.1% | 5.0% | 18.5% | 10.9% | L14Days | 31.0% | 3.5% | 31.6% | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 14.6% | Season | 21.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 17.5% | Home | 18.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 17.9% | L14Days | 28.3% | 4.4% | 35.5% | |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 15.5% | 5.1% | 12.6% | 16.1% | Season | 14.3% | 5.4% | 12.7% | 20.6% | Home | 16.1% | 4.4% | 14.0% | 16.2% | L14Days | 8.3% | 9.1% | ||
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.9% | Season | 20.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.9% | Home | 21.3% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 2.0% | L14Days | 8.1% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 20.0% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 18.5% | 7.8% | 18.9% | 14.8% | Season | 21.5% | 7.3% | 16.4% | 13.7% | Road | 15.8% | 5.0% | 23.6% | 16.5% | L14Days | 21.8% | 7.3% | 16.7% | 13.2% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 7.5% | 16.8% | 10.7% | Season | 21.3% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 13.5% | Road | 17.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.6% | L14Days | 24.5% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 8.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 9.8% | Season | 20.7% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 9.9% | Home | 22.3% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 7.2% | L14Days | 39.3% | 3.6% | ||
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 16.8% | Season | 31.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 19.3% | Road | 28.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 16.4% | L14Days | 33.3% | 13.7% | 26.9% | |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 10.4% | 20.2% | 16.4% | Season | 23.5% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 29.8% | Home | 26.0% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 15.0% | L14Days | 19.6% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 26.7% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 17.2% | Season | 25.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 24.5% | Road | 25.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 14.3% | L14Days | 20.4% | 6.1% | 30.5% | |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 11.2% | 17.0% | 17.4% | Season | 12.6% | 13.7% | 20.3% | Road | 19.0% | 12.4% | 17.3% | 20.5% | L14Days | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | ||
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 12.7% | Season | 25.3% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 14.4% | Home | 25.5% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 14.6% | L14Days | 25.0% | 5.0% | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 25.6% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 9.3% | Season | 25.6% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 9.3% | Road | 22.2% | 11.1% | -25.0% | L14Days | 30.0% | 5.0% | 30.0% | 23.1% | |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 14.5% | Season | 22.9% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 14.7% | Home | 25.6% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 18.7% | L14Days | 23.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | |
| Kolby Allard | Braves | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.7% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 25.5% | RH | 24.1% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 19.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 18.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.6% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 8.4% | RH | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.6% | 14.6% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.4% | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| Giants | Road | 24.2% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 17.8% | LH | 21.1% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 19.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.8% |
| Braves | Home | 20.5% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 19.1% | RH | 20.6% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 18.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.4% | 6.8% | 11.6% | 5.2% | LH | 25.9% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 14.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.8% | 23.1% | 16.6% |
| Padres | Home | 25.2% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 21.0% | RH | 25.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 17.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 5.4% | 10.6% | 15.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.5% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 8.1% | LH | 22.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.4% | 18.7% | 8.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 23.7% | RH | 22.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 17.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 14.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 8.0% | 14.6% | 17.2% | RH | 23.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 14.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 7.7% | 16.3% | 4.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.6% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 16.2% | RH | 18.7% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 19.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 5.0% |
| Royals | Road | 21.8% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 16.3% | RH | 20.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 22.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 5.6% | 18.8% | 11.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.4% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 16.5% | RH | 20.9% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 14.4% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.3% | 18.6% | 11.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.6% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 23.7% | RH | 22.2% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 21.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 15.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% | LH | 21.9% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 12.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 18.2% |
| Indians | Road | 20.1% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 20.2% | RH | 19.9% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 25.2% | L7Days | 13.5% | 7.8% | 18.6% | 19.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.6% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 12.2% | RH | 24.1% | 7.3% | 13.6% | 11.6% | L7Days | 13.5% | 12.1% | 23.5% | 9.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.2% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 17.3% | LH | 20.7% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 23.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 11.0% | 17.0% | 22.2% |
| Astros | Road | 19.6% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 21.5% | RH | 19.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 15.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 13.3% |
| Angels | Road | 19.4% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 18.0% | LH | 21.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 17.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.7% | 19.3% | 38.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 25.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 23.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 15.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.2% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 12.1% | LH | 22.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 14.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 19.2% |
| Mets | Road | 21.4% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 19.0% | RH | 21.5% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 15.8% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 20.3% | RH | 21.2% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 20.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 18.2% | RH | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 16.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 6.7% |
| Rays | Home | 22.6% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 16.1% | LH | 23.7% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 17.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 5.7% | 14.0% | 17.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.8% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 17.0% | LH | 22.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 19.7% | L7Days | 27.3% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 23.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 12.7% | RH | 25.1% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 17.5% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.5% | 17.3% | 21.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.2% | 10.9% | 18.4% | 22.2% | RH | 23.1% | 9.1% | 15.9% | 18.8% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 21.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.7% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 16.4% | RH | 25.6% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 21.5% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.8% | 23.3% | 19.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.2% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 13.8% | LH | 21.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 13.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 15.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 13.7% | 5.4% | 2.54 | 10.4% | 5.1% | 2.04 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 30.6% | 12.9% | 2.37 | 29.3% | 12.0% | 2.44 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 17.1% | 9.0% | 1.90 | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.10 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 19.3% | 10.3% | 1.87 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 20.2% | 9.9% | 2.04 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 2.35 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 19.0% | 8.8% | 2.16 | 17.3% | 6.7% | 2.58 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 20.5% | 7.4% | 2.77 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.72 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 14.5% | 8.3% | 1.75 | 30.8% | 14.8% | 2.08 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 29.7% | 12.7% | 2.34 | 31.3% | 13.2% | 2.37 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.42 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 2.74 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 17.8% | 10.2% | 1.75 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 1.76 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.26 | 25.2% | 12.0% | 2.10 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 28.2% | 13.2% | 2.14 | 23.1% | 11.6% | 1.99 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 19.1% | 8.3% | 2.30 | 18.2% | 6.4% | 2.84 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 23.6% | 12.2% | 1.93 | 24.4% | 15.3% | 1.59 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.9% | 13.9% | 1.79 | 25.0% | 13.7% | 1.82 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 21.8% | 10.1% | 2.16 | 27.4% | 11.7% | 2.34 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 14.3% | 7.7% | 1.86 | 11.6% | 6.8% | 1.71 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 20.7% | 8.3% | 2.49 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 2.76 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 21.5% | 8.9% | 2.42 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 2.21 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 21.3% | 8.3% | 2.57 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 2.15 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 20.7% | 9.0% | 2.30 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.47 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 31.6% | 13.2% | 2.39 | 31.4% | 13.1% | 2.40 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 23.5% | 13.0% | 1.81 | 19.1% | 12.9% | 1.48 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 25.5% | 11.4% | 2.24 | 22.6% | 11.5% | 1.97 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 12.6% | 7.6% | 1.66 | 11.8% | 7.9% | 1.49 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 25.3% | 8.8% | 2.88 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 3.35 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 25.6% | 13.4% | 1.91 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 1.80 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 22.9% | 11.9% | 1.92 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 1.71 |
| Kolby Allard | Braves |
Walker Buehler just is not missing bats like most thought he would at the major league level, though it hasn’t really hurt his strikeout rate. While this is a concern, he’s always had high minor league strikeout rates and I still believe he’ll eventually pull his SwStr% up. I could be wrong and he probably needs to start doing that soon though. He did have a nice stretch of four double digit marks in five starts in May, but none since and has only been above 11% once this season.
Zack Godley has been above an 11 SwStr% in six straight starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 5.02 | 4.67 | -0.35 | 5.02 | -0.49 | 5.12 | 0.10 | 6.52 | 1.50 | 5.87 | 5.25 | -0.62 | 5.18 | -0.69 | 4.73 | -1.14 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 2.89 | 3.39 | 0.50 | 2.89 | 0.31 | 3.45 | 0.56 | 3.41 | 0.52 | 4.37 | 3.56 | -0.81 | 3.28 | -1.09 | 2.77 | -1.60 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 5.05 | 4.45 | -0.60 | 5.05 | -0.86 | 4.40 | -0.65 | 5.31 | 0.26 | 8.28 | 6.60 | -1.68 | 5.96 | -2.32 | 6.40 | -1.88 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 4.07 | 4.98 | 0.91 | 4.07 | 0.80 | 5.41 | 1.34 | 4.87 | 0.80 | 2.84 | 5.09 | 2.25 | 4.83 | 1.99 | 4.30 | 1.46 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 4.70 | 4.79 | 0.09 | 4.70 | 0.28 | 4.88 | 0.18 | 5.54 | 0.84 | 3.98 | 4.25 | 0.27 | 4.16 | 0.18 | 3.32 | -0.66 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 2.75 | 4.26 | 1.51 | 2.75 | 1.48 | 3.47 | 0.72 | 4.87 | 2.12 | 1.59 | 4.52 | 2.93 | 4.27 | 2.68 | 3.34 | 1.75 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 6.91 | 4.89 | -2.02 | 6.91 | -1.96 | 5.71 | -1.20 | 8.49 | 1.58 | 7.71 | 4.69 | -3.02 | 4.14 | -3.57 | 8.31 | 0.60 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 6.29 | 5.14 | -1.15 | 6.29 | -1.25 | 5.84 | -0.45 | 6.13 | -0.16 | 2.70 | 3.20 | 0.50 | 2.4 | -0.30 | 1.66 | -1.04 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 3.28 | 3.40 | 0.12 | 3.28 | 0.21 | 4.05 | 0.77 | 2.72 | -0.56 | 4.24 | 3.70 | -0.54 | 3.7 | -0.54 | 4.66 | 0.42 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 3.45 | 4.44 | 0.99 | 3.45 | 0.72 | 4.11 | 0.66 | 4.43 | 0.98 | 3.18 | 4.51 | 1.33 | 3.95 | 0.77 | 3.76 | 0.58 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 4.53 | 4.92 | 0.39 | 4.53 | 0.52 | 4.62 | 0.09 | 3.94 | -0.59 | 5.40 | 4.38 | -1.02 | 4.69 | -0.71 | 5.10 | -0.30 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 3.73 | 3.73 | 0.00 | 3.73 | -0.17 | 3.44 | -0.29 | 3.16 | -0.57 | 3.03 | 3.38 | 0.35 | 2.95 | -0.08 | 2.66 | -0.37 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 5.16 | 3.23 | -1.93 | 5.16 | -2.29 | 3.00 | -2.16 | 2.87 | -2.29 | 1.26 | 3.04 | 1.78 | 2.92 | 1.66 | 2.12 | 0.86 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 3.06 | 4.71 | 1.65 | 3.06 | 1.58 | 4.59 | 1.53 | 4.19 | 1.13 | 6.31 | 5.14 | -1.17 | 5 | -1.31 | 6.24 | -0.07 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.42 | 4.09 | 0.67 | 3.42 | 0.45 | 3.78 | 0.36 | 3.72 | 0.30 | 3.24 | 3.84 | 0.60 | 3.75 | 0.51 | 3.34 | 0.10 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.09 | 3.60 | -0.49 | 4.09 | -0.51 | 4.58 | 0.49 | 4.04 | -0.05 | 2.29 | 3.16 | 0.87 | 2.76 | 0.47 | 3.16 | 0.87 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 4.53 | 4.36 | -0.17 | 4.53 | 0.10 | 4.00 | -0.53 | 5.56 | 1.03 | 5.67 | 3.21 | -2.46 | 3.36 | -2.31 | 3.46 | -2.21 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.15 | 4.56 | 0.41 | 4.15 | 0.18 | 4.34 | 0.19 | 4.33 | 0.18 | 4.87 | 4.71 | -0.16 | 4.44 | -0.43 | 3.46 | -1.41 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 3.67 | 4.15 | 0.48 | 3.67 | 0.77 | 4.24 | 0.57 | 4.02 | 0.35 | 3.32 | 4.39 | 1.07 | 4.54 | 1.22 | 3.59 | 0.27 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 4.65 | 4.04 | -0.61 | 4.65 | -0.51 | 4.66 | 0.01 | 5.47 | 0.82 | 5.59 | 4.45 | -1.14 | 4.6 | -0.99 | 5.47 | -0.12 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 3.79 | 4.28 | 0.49 | 3.79 | 0.55 | 4.76 | 0.97 | 4.39 | 0.60 | 4.03 | 4.31 | 0.28 | 4.54 | 0.51 | 4.23 | 0.20 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 4.55 | 4.36 | -0.19 | 4.55 | -0.19 | 4.27 | -0.28 | 4.95 | 0.40 | 6.38 | 3.94 | -2.44 | 3.84 | -2.54 | 3.41 | -2.97 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.32 | 3.14 | 0.82 | 2.32 | 0.74 | 2.25 | -0.07 | 2.24 | -0.08 | 1.87 | 3.33 | 1.46 | 3.16 | 1.29 | 2.27 | 0.40 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 3.43 | 3.63 | 0.20 | 3.43 | -0.03 | 3.42 | -0.01 | 2.99 | -0.44 | 5.65 | 5.23 | -0.42 | 4.96 | -0.69 | 4.49 | -1.16 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 2.62 | 3.59 | 0.97 | 2.62 | 0.85 | 2.95 | 0.33 | 3.28 | 0.66 | 2.35 | 3.64 | 1.29 | 3.42 | 1.07 | 1.99 | -0.36 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 2.01 | 5.71 | 3.70 | 2.01 | 3.06 | 3.97 | 1.96 | 5.97 | 3.96 | 2.25 | 5.65 | 3.40 | 5.07 | 2.82 | 4.04 | 1.79 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 3.92 | 3.42 | -0.50 | 3.92 | -0.56 | 3.34 | -0.58 | 3.52 | -0.40 | 6.52 | 3.94 | -2.58 | 4.27 | -2.25 | 7.10 | 0.58 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 3.49 | 3.83 | 0.34 | 3.49 | 0.80 | 4.61 | 1.12 | 4.95 | 1.46 | 3.79 | 4.04 | 0.25 | 4.54 | 0.75 | 5.11 | 1.32 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.73 | 4.30 | -0.43 | 4.73 | -0.66 | 4.10 | -0.63 | 5.14 | 0.41 | 5.20 | 3.91 | -1.29 | 3.6 | -1.60 | 2.30 | -2.90 |
| Kolby Allard | Braves |
Jon Gray has a .358 BABIP and 63.4 LOB%. Both are actually worse on the road this year (.366, 60.3%).
Trevor Bauer has a 5.0 HR/FB.
Tyler Skaggs has a 79.8 LOB% and 8.2 HR/FB.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.304 | 0.276 | -0.028 | 43.5% | 22.4% | 10.1% | 93.3% | 32.1% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.279 | 0.281 | 0.002 | 50.0% | 22.5% | 10.4% | 81.6% | 33.5% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.306 | 0.286 | -0.020 | 57.5% | 20.8% | 8.1% | 88.7% | 37.2% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.245 | -0.047 | 34.0% | 27.7% | 11.0% | 88.2% | 39.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.309 | 0.293 | -0.016 | 35.3% | 21.2% | 8.4% | 86.4% | 39.5% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.295 | 0.278 | -0.017 | 40.6% | 25.7% | 10.2% | 88.9% | 32.2% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.292 | 0.358 | 0.066 | 38.2% | 22.1% | 5.8% | 92.0% | 38.2% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.296 | 0.309 | 0.013 | 39.8% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 90.7% | 41.0% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.289 | 0.267 | -0.022 | 43.4% | 20.5% | 13.5% | 82.7% | 36.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.295 | 0.279 | -0.016 | 53.8% | 19.2% | 9.9% | 90.7% | 32.4% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.291 | 0.264 | -0.027 | 35.8% | 21.7% | 9.0% | 86.1% | 37.6% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.299 | 0.300 | 0.001 | 49.4% | 20.1% | 5.8% | 85.4% | 34.4% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.303 | 0.358 | 0.055 | 48.5% | 24.7% | 11.5% | 84.3% | 37.2% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.277 | 0.257 | -0.020 | 38.0% | 24.5% | 6.9% | 87.3% | 39.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.310 | 0.272 | -0.038 | 46.2% | 22.5% | 11.8% | 87.7% | 34.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.283 | 0.245 | -0.038 | 46.9% | 18.0% | 11.6% | 83.2% | 31.2% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.292 | 0.268 | -0.024 | 33.5% | 22.3% | 10.2% | 85.1% | 37.4% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.294 | -0.001 | 49.3% | 21.1% | 5.6% | 92.1% | 35.4% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.279 | 0.281 | 0.002 | 38.7% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 88.0% | 36.3% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.291 | -0.018 | 49.0% | 15.9% | 5.5% | 91.6% | 33.9% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.301 | 0.265 | -0.036 | 49.7% | 14.9% | 7.5% | 86.0% | 39.7% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.291 | 0.301 | 0.010 | 42.7% | 22.3% | 6.4% | 88.2% | 38.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.295 | 0.312 | 0.017 | 44.2% | 21.8% | 10.8% | 85.0% | 31.7% |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.276 | 0.268 | -0.008 | 58.3% | 17.8% | 5.1% | 83.1% | 32.3% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.292 | 0.313 | 0.021 | 47.0% | 20.1% | 11.2% | 82.2% | 32.6% |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.277 | 0.261 | -0.016 | 53.7% | 23.9% | 6.7% | 91.3% | 33.5% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.289 | 0.283 | -0.006 | 48.8% | 18.6% | 7.1% | 88.1% | 39.9% |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 0.317 | 0.257 | -0.060 | 41.1% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 81.7% | 40.8% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.283 | 0.329 | 0.046 | 51.2% | 21.0% | 15.1% | 89.3% | 31.7% |
| Kolby Allard | Braves | 0.278 |
Jon Gray has a career .336 BABIP with a 24.7 LD% this year and the team a bit above .300. It would be nice to be able to blame the park, but, as mentioned above, it’s actually been higher on the road this year. We should still expect some regression and about 20 points of that has already happened over his last two starts.
Masahiro Tanaka is the only pitcher to combine a Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing% both much better than average. The result is the lowest BABIP on the board. I’m not saying it stays there, but the defense has been good and he also has one of the lowest line drive rates. His career BABIP is just 30 points higher with worse defenses behind him for the most part.
Zack Godley has a .329 BABIP and doesn’t have a bad profile at all, but may allow too many hard ground balls.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.366 | -0.025 | 0.362 | -0.003 | 0.337 | 0.029 | -2.000 | 89.3 | 7.4 | 40.500 | 407 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.288 | -0.004 | 0.305 | -0.001 | 0.268 | 0.033 | -0.800 | 87.4 | 5.7 | 30.100 | 282 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.347 | -0.025 | 0.315 | 0.010 | 0.425 | -0.044 | -2.000 | 89 | 5.4 | 37.800 | 405 |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | 0.377 | -0.056 | 0.339 | -0.014 | 0.300 | -0.027 | -0.500 | 88.3 | 8.6 | 38.900 | 244 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.357 | -0.026 | 0.323 | -0.010 | 0.289 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 88.3 | 7.0 | 37.100 | 385 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.315 | -0.016 | 0.341 | -0.021 | 0.304 | -0.039 | 0.000 | 88.5 | 3.3 | 38.300 | 180 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.369 | 0.029 | 0.338 | -0.008 | 0.441 | -0.033 | -2.600 | 89.7 | 11.4 | 34.800 | 132 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.406 | -0.032 | 0.387 | -0.031 | 0.321 | -0.056 | -0.200 | 89.2 | 9.8 | 46.100 | 245 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.295 | -0.004 | 0.289 | 0.022 | 1.000 | 85.9 | 6.3 | 32.700 | 208 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.321 | -0.019 | 0.329 | -0.006 | 0.341 | -0.053 | -0.700 | 87.1 | 4.1 | 32.500 | 342 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.357 | -0.044 | 0.336 | -0.033 | 0.399 | -0.030 | 0.700 | 88.4 | 8.0 | 36.600 | 424 |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.028 | 0.304 | -0.021 | -0.200 | 87.5 | 4.1 | 34.200 | 345 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.293 | 0.028 | 0.310 | 0.018 | 0.231 | -0.072 | 0.400 | 88.2 | 4.4 | 34.200 | 298 |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 0.360 | -0.055 | 0.326 | -0.010 | 0.389 | 0.009 | -0.200 | 88.5 | 7.0 | 37.700 | 355 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.322 | -0.033 | 0.358 | -0.006 | 0.303 | -0.023 | 0.800 | 87.4 | 5.9 | 36.100 | 355 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.324 | -0.025 | 0.311 | -0.018 | 0.294 | -0.035 | -1.200 | 86.9 | 8.4 | 35.900 | 251 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.297 | -0.002 | 0.317 | -0.015 | 0.254 | 0.035 | -0.800 | 86.3 | 3.8 | 29.400 | 313 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.373 | -0.050 | 0.339 | -0.021 | 0.332 | 0.032 | -1.800 | 89.8 | 7.0 | 40.700 | 427 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 0.334 | -0.030 | 0.301 | -0.029 | 0.289 | 0.002 | -0.900 | 85.4 | 6.1 | 27.300 | 293 |
| Sam Gaviglio | Blue Jays | 0.326 | 0.001 | 0.349 | 0.032 | 0.352 | 0.003 | 0.200 | 87.4 | 6.6 | 37.400 | 211 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0.315 | 0.006 | 0.319 | -0.007 | 0.309 | 0.011 | 0.100 | 87.4 | 6.4 | 35.000 | 311 |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.343 | -0.021 | 0.331 | 0.004 | 0.345 | 0.003 | -1.200 | 87.1 | 6.0 | 34.900 | 364 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.273 | -0.010 | 0.293 | 0.016 | 0.262 | 0.004 | -0.600 | 87.1 | 4.5 | 30.100 | 359 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.321 | -0.037 | 0.274 | -0.025 | 0.325 | -0.001 | -0.400 | 88.7 | 6.0 | 41.100 | 168 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.300 | -0.014 | 0.302 | 0.001 | 0.262 | -0.030 | -0.500 | 88.7 | 6.0 | 38.100 | 302 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.330 | -0.047 | 0.362 | -0.003 | 0.323 | -0.030 | -0.800 | 86.4 | 1.4 | 34.800 | 69 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.288 | -0.011 | 0.297 | -0.022 | 0.363 | 0.013 | -0.300 | 88.5 | 6.4 | 30.600 | 173 |
| Yefry Ramirez | Orioles | 0.295 | 0.011 | 0.188 | -0.042 | 0.305 | 0.021 | -0.100 | 87.3 | 8.0 | 34.700 | 75 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.353 | -0.021 | 0.319 | -0.023 | 0.321 | -0.007 | -1.300 | 88.3 | 7.6 | 36.500 | 340 |
| Kolby Allard | Braves |
Masahiro Tanaka has the third highest rate of Barrels/BBE (8.4%), despite the fifth lowest aEV (86.9 mph). Sometimes his pitches don’t drop like he intends and they go a long way. There’s no in between.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is an interesting board because there are quite a few high upside pitchers (and a lot of solid ones), but most either come with a fair amount of risk and/or workload concerns.
Value Tier One
Trevor Cahill (9) hasn’t excelled since returning from the DL, but did pitch well in his one decent spot against the Giants (5.2 IP -1 ER – 5 K). He’s right around $7K in a decent spot with the top ground ball rate (58.3%) and a top five SwStr%. This is not a risk free play, but think he can get you 20 DK points (or the FD equivalent).
Value Tier Two
Walker Buehler (4t) is a bet on talent and upside in a great park, though in a dangerous matchup. He’s not cheap, but reasonably priced and did throw 90 pitches last time out with the thinking he can through six tonight.
Jon Gray (2) is one of the higher upside pitchers on this board and also one of the more expensive. The problem is in a BABIP above .350. Let’s hope he’s looking for strikeouts more than walks with the park upgrade, but if not, he did complete seven innings in each of his last two starts. The Cardinals have just traded away Tommy Pham too, as I type this.
Value Tier Three
Jack Flaherty (4t) doesn’t always hit his upside and has only recorded sixth inning outs six times this year, but might have the top matchup on the board from a run prevention standpoint with one of the highest strikeout rates. His FanDuel is the largest price reduction from his DraftKings price on the board ($1.7K). I’d still consider him usable on the latter site, but would certainly drop him a tier or maybe even two.
Jameson Taillon (7t) is not in the best spot, but is still reasonably priced for the performance he’s supplied recently, more so on DraftKings where he’s less than $8K and maybe even a top four of five value for me on that site.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Charlie Morton (3) is the third most expensive arm, though not terribly expensive in a decent spot, but will probably have to supply his own upside because the Mariners don’t strike out much.
Zack Godley is just $7.2K on DraftKings and has had an uptick in swinging strikes recently. Although not necessarily risk free, he’s in a high upside spot tonight.
Tyler Skaggs (4t) is the second most expensive pitcher on the board, but has really pitched well. The expectation should be at least six innings tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka (7t) has tremendous upside, but is one of the most expensive pitchers on the board in a dangerous park against an offense that has taken off since trading their most legitimate bat.
Trevor Bauer (1) is the top pitcher on the board. That’s the easy part. He’s also easily the most expensive with no other pitcher within $2K on either site. That’s the harder part. He doesn’t blow the rest of the board away by K% or SIERA, though he does lead it. He doesn’t have a much better matchup than those pitchers closest to him either. His larger advantages over them are in workload and a higher floor, which is something I never believed I’d be saying about this pitcher a year ago.
Danny Duffy has been getting expensive and his last start was a disaster, but the matchup is too favorable to ignore.
Matt Boyd has some underlying numbers that pop out, especially on his Statcast board in addition to the increase in strikeouts. He doesn’t always get the results and is in a sneaky bad spot tonight, but doesn’t cost much (especially on FanDuel).
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.