Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 8th
Tuesday night’s slate is double the size of Monday’s (14 games) with plenty of quality and high upside arms on the mound. It should be a fun board, so let’s get right to it in order to finish in a timely manner. Pitchers for the first game are listed. Apologies if I’m not finished by then.
I’m using an updated template for the first time today, so hopefully, it corrects all the shading errors. I’ll be seeing it for the first time just a few minutes before you do. Columns are sortable by clicking on the headers if there’s any confusion.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -5.3 | 3.62 | 5.9 | 52.1% | 0.97 | 3.03 | 3.24 | Giants | 86 | 98 | 131 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 5 | 3.69 | 4.7 | 32.2% | 1.33 | 4.83 | 3.41 | Rockies | 74 | 92 | 111 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | -5.5 | 4.49 | 5.2 | 40.9% | 0.92 | 3.97 | 3.32 | Braves | 121 | 129 | 122 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | -2.3 | 3.89 | 6.4 | 54.5% | 0.92 | 3.74 | 3.90 | Twins | 102 | 96 | 108 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -4.2 | 4.25 | 6.0 | 59.4% | 0.91 | 3.69 | 4.88 | Nationals | 108 | 88 | 132 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 16.4 | 3.08 | 6.9 | 43.7% | 1.02 | 3.01 | 3.12 | Brewers | 88 | 89 | 93 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | -0.8 | 3.99 | 6.1 | 37.2% | 0.99 | 4.66 | 4.71 | Orioles | 73 | 96 | 45 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -4.6 | 5.23 | 5.2 | 38.4% | 0.97 | 5.76 | 5.20 | Phillies | 107 | 94 | 108 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 3.3 | 4.10 | 5.5 | 44.2% | 1.03 | 4.33 | 5.10 | Yankees | 127 | 112 | 88 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 1.5 | 4.17 | 5.8 | 34.4% | 0.99 | 4.63 | 4.81 | Royals | 87 | 83 | 97 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | -1.3 | 4.12 | 5.9 | 48.6% | 0.98 | 4.11 | 3.50 | White Sox | 87 | 100 | 79 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | -4.9 | 4.59 | 5.4 | 33.1% | 0.92 | 5.31 | 4.90 | Cardinals | 94 | 99 | 96 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -4.3 | 3.44 | 5.8 | 44.5% | 1.04 | 3.22 | 1.60 | Blue Jays | 111 | 94 | 99 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -0.2 | 4.83 | 5.4 | 39.6% | 1.01 | 4.92 | 5.26 | Reds | 93 | 106 | 95 |
| Jen-Ho Tseng | Cubs | 8.1 | 3.25 | 3.0 | 33.3% | 1.01 | 2.94 | Marlins | 66 | 66 | 57 | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | -10.8 | 4.77 | 5.7 | 38.3% | 0.91 | 5.19 | 4.60 | Padres | 100 | 87 | 94 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 2.8 | 3.78 | 5.7 | 45.7% | 1.33 | 3.44 | 2.15 | Angels | 123 | 114 | 169 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | -2 | 4.96 | 5.5 | 45.4% | 1.01 | 5.10 | 3.76 | Cubs | 102 | 103 | 88 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 2.3 | 3.45 | 5.6 | 60.2% | 0.96 | 3.23 | 3.41 | Athletics | 105 | 108 | 65 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | -3.5 | 5.51 | 5.5 | 41.4% | 0.98 | 5.16 | 4.45 | Pirates | 88 | 98 | 101 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | -6.4 | 3.82 | 5.6 | 56.0% | 1.01 | 3.31 | 4.08 | Mets | 94 | 106 | 74 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 5 | 3.34 | 6.0 | 49.0% | 1.03 | 3.13 | 2.43 | Red Sox | 104 | 124 | 110 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | -4.5 | 3.74 | 6.0 | 61.2% | 1.04 | 3.42 | 3.97 | Mariners | 115 | 107 | 99 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 4.46 | 5.4 | 43.1% | 1.15 | 4.80 | 5.29 | Rangers | 76 | 83 | 95 | |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.9 | 3.49 | 5.5 | 40.8% | 1.15 | 3.86 | 4.49 | Tigers | 92 | 106 | 102 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.8 | 3.53 | 5.5 | 38.3% | 0.90 | 4.12 | Diamondbacks | 96 | 102 | 57 | |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | -2.2 | 4.18 | 5.8 | 43.8% | 0.96 | 4.01 | 3.49 | Astros | 128 | 112 | 104 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 9.6 | 4.43 | 5.4 | 45.1% | 0.92 | 3.55 | 3.28 | Rays | 106 | 122 | 88 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 1.2 | 4.69 | 5.1 | 49.2% | 1.02 | 4.75 | 5.03 | Indians | 72 | 95 | 131 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 8.7 | 3.84 | 5.9 | 54.8% | 0.90 | 3.24 | 4.78 | Dodgers | 99 | 108 | 97 |
Aaron Nola has one of the lower SwStr rates on the board, but it has been at least 9.9% in three straight starts. He’s gone at least seven in four of his last five and has allowed a season high three earned runs just once, while generating a 51.2 GB% and board lows .265 xwOBA and 2.4% Barrels/BBE. Quite the accomplishments on this loaded board. The Giants aren’t embarrassing themselves anymore, but still have a 15.6 K-BB% vs RHP.
Blake Snell has gone at least six innings with two runs or less in six straight starts. Move over Chris Archer, the Rays may have a new Ace. He’s reached nine strikeouts in half of those starts with a total of two walks over his last four. He’s throwing more pitches in the strike zone, many of which batters are missing, which also gets his chase rate up from ahead in the count. He’s one of eight pitchers below a .300 xwOBA with a 25.7% 95+ mph EV that’s best on the board. Swings and misses and weak contact is a hell of a combination. The issue tonight is a matchup with the Braves, who have the highest wRC+ split (129 vs LHP) and lowest strikeout split (16.6%) on the board. They have just a 15.7 K% and 29.3 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Aside from the Yankees/Red Sox and two extremely positive run environments, this can comfortably be called the worst matchup on the board.
Corey Kluber is considered the elite arm on a slate with many high upside ones. He averages nearly seven innings per start over the last two calendar years and has missed that mark just one time by a single out this season. Unfortunately, that may be the high point. He’s allowed exactly three runs in each of his last three starts with six total home runs. He does have double digit strikeouts in two of his last six, but no more than six in any of the other four. His 10.9 SwStr% is his lowest mark since 2013 and not very impressive on today’s board. The whiff rate is still above 25% on every pitch except his sinker (4%), which has been cut in half, but it’s also been the pitch he’s throwing the most. The whiff rate is only up this year on the changeup (39%), the pitch he throws the least. I wouldn’t call it concern, he’s still a very good pitcher, but does not belong among the elite this year so far. That could change. He has a favorable matchup in Milwaukee against an offense that has actually declined despite off-season improvements. They have a 15.5 K-BB% vs RHP.
Dylan Bundy allowed homers on three different pitches last time out (fastball, slider, changeup) with both in the previous start coming on heat. While the two against the Rays were both on the edges of the plate, he hung all three pitches out over the middle in his last start. Honestly, the Tampa Bay start may have been a bit fluky, though there were a lot of pitches over the heart of the plate that were not hit out and he had just a 7.0 SwStr% (no lower than 13.8% in any other start). It happens. The Rays hit fastballs well. It has been their intention this year. The last start may have just been a poor outing against a quality offense (the Angels). Although, he was down a mile per hour in his most recent outing. The great news is that he’s in a quality spot in terms of run prevention (Royals 83 wRC+ vs RHP) against a team with no power (7.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but also one that is tied for the lowest strikeout split on the board (16.6 K% vs RHP).
James Paxton struck out 26 of his last 53 batters and has a reverse platoon split. That makes this a quality matchup for him in Toronto. We’ll leave simple as simple and discuss a bit more below.
Jose Urena has gone seven innings while allowing a single earned run in two straight starts and for the third time in seven this year. The others where all five innings or less with at least three runs and he’s only been outside Miami once this season, but he does at least have a double digit SwStr% this year and has been about a league average arm. The Cubs murdered it yesterday against a pitcher who was due a beating and his Opening Day outing against them was his worst of the season, but they’ve really been just okay this year.
Lance McCullers Jr. has gone seven innings in three of his last four starts and that’s an important take away, considering he’s struck out just 15 of his last 77 batters faced. Let’s hope the velocity drop in four straight starts has been intentional as the pitch count increases. It’s something to watch, but he good news is that he’s been above a 13 SwStr% in three of his last four. On the whole, who can complain about a 62.4 GB% and 29.2 K%. Nobody can match him for both. That gives him a .278 xwOBA that’s third best on the board. Twelve of his 15 walks have come in three of his seven starts. The A’s can mash. They have a Hard-Soft% that nearly matches their K% vs RHP. They’re both very high. That’s a blessing in terms of upside, but there’s also come concern as his curveball usage gives him a bit of a reverse platoon split against a team that has a few RHBs who can hit same-handed pitching with authority. The ground ball rate may be the savior in this case.
Luis Castillo had a 19.8 SwStr% against the Brewers last time out in his first start of the season with fewer than three runs allowed. He saw an increase in velocity near last season’s levels for only the second time this year. A 14.6 K% and 50.4 GB% is impossible to omit entirely, but consider how hard he has to get hit to sustain a .380 xwOBA with all that going on. The scary thing, is he’s pitched just two games at home (three HRs) and has thrown in power suppressing parks like St Louis, Pittsburgh and Minnesota, allowing four HRs on the road.
Luis Severino just seems to be an elite arm on a monster board in a rough spot every time I come across him this year. Boston was his worst start of the season (five ERs). His last two were against the Angels (three runs) and Astros (shutout with 10 Ks). We’ve already covered the two of the three times he’s allowed more than a single run this season. We have to start recognizing he can get it done in tough spots too. This certainly is that though. He’s facing a lineup with a higher Hard-Soft rate (22%) than strikeout rate (17.4%) vs RHP, but has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts and has the fourth best xwOBA on the board (.282).
Sean Newcomb pitched seven innings for the first time this season (eight strikeouts) last time out because he walked fewer than three for just the second time this year. He’s a strong in both the whiff and contact management departments with occasional lapses in control his biggest issue. In fact, his .271 xwOBA is second best on the board today. The problem is that the Rays have a 122 wRC+ vs LHP, though peripherals don’t exactly explain why, which makes you think it’s a small sample thing. The other problem is that the Rays have made a concentrated effort to improve their performance against fastballs his off-season and we’ve already seen a few instances where that’s burned players (”(player-popup #j-a-happ)J.A. Happ”:/players/j-a-happ-10941’s most recent start). He’s another pitcher who uses his fastball 66% of the time, generating 27.9% whiffs with it according to his Statcast page. Sound a bit like J.A. Happ?
Zack Godley may get lost a bit on this board. He pitched seven innings in each of his first two starts and only reached six innings for the first time since in his last outing. The ground ball rate remains at 55%, but he’s not missing as many bats. In fact, his SwStr rate has only been above 11.7% once despite his 11.5% season rate. His 92.7 Z-Contact% is highest on the board after being four points lower last season. A sinker and cutter make up 55% of his arsenal and the velocity is down a bit, which has led him to 40% curveballs as his other pitch. That’s the pitch the 44% whiff rate has been consistent on according to his Statcast page. It would probably be a good idea if he threw a lot of those to the Dodgers, at least for daily fantasy purposes as it’s generally a pretty strong platoon neutralizer too. The Dodger have remained formidable opponents for RHPs.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Sean Manaea (.167 – 89.7% – 10.4) does have an ERA much lower than his estimators and is coming off his worst start of the season, which is not even that bad (6 IP – 4 ER – 0 BB – 5 K), but doesn’t really belong here. He’s an arm we would strongly consider on most slates. The matchup against the Astros burns him on a board with great potential.
Jeremy Hellickson (.258 – 78.1% – 10) has to be the guy facing the Padres (27.7 K% vs RHP) today? He has the third lowest K% on the board.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rich Hill faced 18 batters in high A to prep for his first major league start in over three weeks. The Diamondbacks have a 26.6 K% vs LHP, which I expect the Dodgers to exploit tonight, but he may only be the pitcher doing it for around five innings.
Mike Minor is a decent pitcher in a terrible park. He has the upside for a few more strikeouts in his 11.6 SwStr%, but can’t get away without managing contact better in Texas. His 44.1 Z-O-Swing% suggests he’s not fooling many people because he is getting ahead of batters with a F-Strike rate exceeding 60% in four straight starts. He should be getting more chases, but he’s not. That’s why he has a .364 xwOBA. The Tigers have little power (7.4 HR/FB), but have not been bad against LHP (106 wRC+, 18.5 K%). If you absolutely need to save salary on DraftKings, he’s not a terrible option at $6.3K.
Ivan Nova is a league average arm most ways you look at it today and that may even be an improvement. That’s not all that impressive today and the White Sox haven’t even been bad. Lefties pound him pretty regularly, but he’s not facing a team with very many threats from that side. He may be a bit under-priced on DraftKings, but is $1.8K more on FanDuel.
Jen-Ho Tseng has not even been confirmed as of this writing, but if he does get the start, he has league average peripherals at AAA and is near minimum priced against the Marlins.
Marcus Stroman was not lit up for the first time this season last time out. He allowed just two runs in seven innings and walked just a single batter for the second straight start. He did allow a HR in Minnesota and has not exceeded five strikeouts since his first start of the season. He may be finding it and while the ground ball rate is elite (60.8%), he’s never really been a good contact manager and the strikeout upside is only league average. That’s just not what we’re looking for combined with the risk, considering the amount of upside on this board. He’s not even in a nearly favorable spot.
Andrew Heaney is pitching at Coors and while that won’t automatically disqualify a visiting pitcher, this lineup is much tougher on lefties and his best pitch is a curveball, which is generally not a successful pitch in that park at high altitude (though Rich Hill has had some success there). Why would you need the risk on this board though?
Jon Gray may be able to keep the Angels grounded, as he likes to do at home, but that doesn’t provide DFS players with as much upside and the this offense doesn’t strike out much anyway. Going purely by wRC+ and park factors, this may be one of the worst matchups I’ve ever seen. Interesting how the hottest offense on the board will fare at Coors.
Danny Duffy has been getting lit up. Third highest xwOBA on the board (.401) and he’s not even missing bats at an above average rate. Which is a shame, considering the matchup (25.3 K% vs LHP).
Wade Miley looked good in his first start of the season in Cincinnati and that’s not an offense bereft of right-handed power in a power friendly park. The Indians lose their DH today in Milwaukee, but you’d still consider this a more difficult matchup despite what the numbers at this point say.
Drew Pomeranz is facing the Yankees, which pretty much automatically disqualifies him, but if you need more: 7.4 SwStr%, 92.2 Z-Contact%, 13.3% Barrels/BBE are just some hand-picked number that stand out in rough looking profile below today.
Lucas Giolito struck out more than he walked for just the second time this season and for the first time, the gap was greater than one. Three earned in 6.1 innings easily qualifies as his best start of the season in St Louis of all places. Why consider against an offense with one of the lowest strikeout rates on the board though, even at the minimum price?
Jason Vargas isn’t as bad as he’s shown in his first two starts, but a power friendly park is not where he should be right now.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 6.7% | Season | 20.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | -0.8% | Home | 28.6% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 3.0% | L14Days | 20.8% | 3.8% | 22.5% | |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 7.5% | 30.6% | 26.8% | Season | 27.6% | 5.8% | 15.8% | 13.8% | Road | 26.0% | 9.1% | 30.8% | 28.0% | L14Days | 25.0% | 4.6% | 29.0% | |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 11.6% | Season | 27.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | Home | 25.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 14.8% | L14Days | 25.0% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 13.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.9% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 10.6% | Season | 24.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 7.9% | Home | 23.3% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 5.9% | L14Days | 15.4% | 3.9% | -2.6% | |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.7% | 8.1% | 17.6% | 15.5% | Season | 18.5% | 11.6% | 20.7% | 21.7% | Home | 18.3% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 17.6% | L14Days | 18.9% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.2% | 5.7% | 13.2% | 7.0% | Season | 27.5% | 4.7% | 18.2% | 16.0% | Road | 29.0% | 4.4% | 17.3% | 15.0% | L14Days | 27.6% | 5.2% | 33.3% | 18.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 6.4% | 11.4% | 17.3% | Season | 19.9% | 8.8% | 16.4% | 27.1% | Road | 20.7% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 13.2% | L14Days | 16.7% | 3.7% | 21.7% | 25.6% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 16.9% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 18.6% | Season | 23.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 23.5% | Road | 16.2% | 10.1% | 18.6% | 22.6% | L14Days | 18.4% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 27.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 24.3% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 12.8% | Season | 21.5% | 9.2% | 17.6% | 33.3% | Road | 22.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.5% | L14Days | 15.2% | 8.7% | 21.4% | 28.5% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 13.5% | Season | 27.1% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 12.1% | Home | 22.2% | 6.1% | 10.8% | 13.8% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 25.0% | 24.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 4.3% | 16.0% | 17.4% | Season | 19.3% | 3.3% | 14.3% | 18.1% | Road | 18.2% | 4.6% | 18.6% | 20.9% | L14Days | 17.5% | 3.5% | 28.6% | 20.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.3% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 18.9% | Season | 21.9% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 16.9% | Road | 21.4% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 17.4% | L14Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 18.2% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 15.8% | Season | 35.7% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 16.5% | Road | 29.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 15.9% | L14Days | 49.1% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 26.1% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 15.8% | Season | 16.3% | 10.2% | 33.3% | 27.8% | Road | 18.8% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 15.0% | L14Days | 16.3% | 10.2% | 33.3% | 27.8% |
| Jen-Ho Tseng | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 30.8% | 7.7% | 28.6% | 53.3% | Season | Home | 35.3% | 5.9% | 66.7% | 66.7% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 16.3% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 7.6% | Season | 16.1% | 4.9% | 10.0% | 1.6% | Road | 15.1% | 5.4% | 13.1% | 10.5% | L14Days | 12.8% | 2.6% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 9.7% | Season | 24.4% | 6.0% | 13.5% | 12.9% | Home | 22.7% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 4.4% | L14Days | 37.8% | 4.4% | 10.0% | 23.1% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 15.6% | Season | 18.7% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 29.3% | Road | 18.0% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 16.7% | L14Days | 19.6% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 28.5% |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.8% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 7.1% | Season | 29.2% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 9.9% | Road | 25.1% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 14.1% | L14Days | 23.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 14.8% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 16.6% | Season | 12.2% | 15.7% | 8.7% | 12.9% | Home | 19.3% | 10.5% | 15.6% | 14.8% | L14Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | 27.3% | 20.6% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 8.9% | 18.9% | 12.3% | Season | 19.6% | 8.9% | 22.6% | 22.1% | Home | 27.3% | 8.4% | 25.0% | 18.8% | L14Days | 18.4% | 7.9% | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 28.7% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 8.1% | Season | 29.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | Home | 29.0% | 6.5% | 17.0% | 8.4% | L14Days | 31.0% | 3.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 7.3% | 18.4% | 14.0% | Season | 20.0% | 10.7% | 20.0% | 31.7% | Home | 20.6% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 10.8% | L14Days | 17.0% | 3.8% | 20.0% | 30.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 7.7% | 16.3% | 13.8% | Season | 13.6% | 4.2% | 14.3% | 16.7% | Road | 21.4% | 9.5% | 20.6% | 9.6% | L14Days | 14.3% | 4.8% | 20.0% | 11.7% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 26.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 12.5% | Season | 20.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 27.3% | Home | 27.2% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 14.8% | L14Days | 14.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 31.0% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 29.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | Season | 24.2% | 10.6% | 17.6% | 34.8% | Home | 28.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 16.2% | L14Days | ||||
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 16.5% | Season | 23.0% | 3.8% | 10.4% | 13.7% | Home | 22.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 14.3% | L14Days | 22.6% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 7.8% | Season | 29.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 2.3% | Road | 30.3% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 0.7% | L14Days | 30.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 12.9% |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 10.5% | 18.1% | 18.2% | Season | 16.7% | 12.5% | 58.8% | Home | 19.4% | 13.8% | 18.6% | 10.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 12.5% | 58.8% | ||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 13.0% | Season | 22.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.0% | Road | 25.8% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 7.4% | L14Days | 17.7% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 8.3% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 25.0% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 19.1% | RH | 23.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 19.2% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 24.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 25.2% | 9.7% | 17.3% | 5.5% | LH | 26.9% | 10.2% | 19.8% | 15.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.7% | 25.0% | 13.6% |
| Braves | Road | 19.1% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 11.6% | LH | 16.6% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 18.1% | L7Days | 15.7% | 5.5% | 12.9% | 29.3% |
| Twins | Road | 22.8% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 15.9% | RH | 22.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 20.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 20.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.2% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 15.2% | LH | 23.2% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 14.7% | L7Days | 18.6% | 14.0% | 25.8% | 13.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.5% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 18.7% | RH | 24.0% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 13.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 7.7% | 17.1% | 23.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | LH | 25.3% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 14.8% | L7Days | 25.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 28.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 25.9% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 14.2% | LH | 23.2% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.6% | 17.3% | 15.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.0% | 12.9% | 18.1% | 20.8% | LH | 23.4% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 13.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| Royals | Road | 20.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 13.9% | RH | 16.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 19.9% | L7Days | 19.8% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 11.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.3% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 4.8% | RH | 23.7% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 12.7% | L7Days | 26.0% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 6.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.9% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 22.7% | RH | 23.4% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 19.4% | L7Days | 22.9% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 33.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.6% | 9.1% | 17.2% | 16.8% | LH | 20.5% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 19.3% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.6% | 16.9% | 27.8% |
| Reds | Home | 22.1% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 21.3% | LH | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 22.1% | L7Days | 16.4% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 29.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 26.3% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 7.9% | RH | 24.3% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 19.6% |
| Padres | Home | 26.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 20.0% | RH | 27.7% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 15.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 23.7% |
| Angels | Road | 17.8% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 16.5% | RH | 19.6% | 7.4% | 13.5% | 17.7% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.5% | 16.7% | 13.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.3% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 7.0% | RH | 20.7% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.2% | 6.1% | 17.2% | 22.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 25.1% | RH | 24.5% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 25.4% | L7Days | 28.6% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 20.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.1% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 12.1% | RH | 19.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 16.7% |
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 18.3% | RH | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 16.2% | L7Days | 26.2% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 17.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 21.2% | RH | 17.4% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 22.0% | L7Days | 17.4% | 5.4% | 21.5% | 22.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.8% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 23.5% | RH | 20.9% | 7.0% | 14.7% | 17.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 23.1% | RH | 26.0% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 23.6% | L7Days | 32.1% | 5.7% | 30.4% | 19.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 18.9% | LH | 18.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 23.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 26.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.0% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 15.5% | LH | 26.6% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 22.6% | L7Days | 29.7% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 16.9% |
| Astros | Road | 20.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 16.4% | LH | 22.9% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 14.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 21.3% |
| Rays | Home | 22.1% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 22.6% | LH | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 16.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 15.0% |
| Indians | Road | 25.9% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 14.5% | LH | 20.0% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 21.6% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.7% | 17.1% | 23.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 24.3% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 7.9% | RH | 21.8% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 15.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.06 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 2.17 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 27.6% | 12.0% | 2.30 | 27.6% | 12.0% | 2.30 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 27.8% | 13.7% | 2.03 | 30.7% | 14.2% | 2.16 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 24.3% | 9.7% | 2.51 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 2.53 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 18.5% | 9.0% | 2.06 | 18.0% | 8.5% | 2.12 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.5% | 10.9% | 2.52 | 28.1% | 10.4% | 2.70 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 19.9% | 9.3% | 2.14 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 2.06 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 23.0% | 7.6% | 3.03 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 3.22 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 21.5% | 7.4% | 2.91 | 21.5% | 7.4% | 2.91 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 27.1% | 15.6% | 1.74 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 1.72 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 19.3% | 10.0% | 1.93 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.86 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.01 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.09 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 35.7% | 14.6% | 2.45 | 39.8% | 16.5% | 2.41 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 16.3% | 11.0% | 1.48 | 16.3% | 11.0% | 1.48 |
| Jen-Ho Tseng | Cubs | ||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 16.1% | 8.7% | 1.85 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 1.85 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 24.4% | 12.3% | 1.98 | 24.8% | 12.9% | 1.92 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 18.7% | 10.0% | 1.87 | 18.9% | 10.5% | 1.80 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 29.2% | 13.9% | 2.10 | 25.8% | 12.6% | 2.05 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 12.2% | 8.7% | 1.40 | 13.8% | 9.0% | 1.53 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 19.6% | 14.6% | 1.34 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 1.41 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 29.4% | 12.3% | 2.39 | 29.2% | 13.1% | 2.23 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.06 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 13.6% | 9.1% | 1.49 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 1.49 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.72 | 16.2% | 11.0% | 1.47 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 24.2% | 8.3% | 2.92 | 21.7% | 5.2% | 4.17 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 23.0% | 11.5% | 2.00 | 23.9% | 11.0% | 2.17 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 29.0% | 11.5% | 2.52 | 29.3% | 11.5% | 2.55 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.01 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.01 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 22.6% | 11.5% | 1.97 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.03 |
Two of 29 guys below an 8.3 SwStr%. Just six of 29 below 9%, 12 at least 11.5%.
Luis Castillo has to have more strikeouts coming. He has to!
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 2.17 | 3.93 | 1.76 | 2.17 | 1.52 | 2.99 | 0.82 | 2.58 | 0.41 | 2.04 | 3.61 | 1.57 | 3.36 | 1.32 | 2.46 | 0.42 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 5.31 | 3.29 | -2.02 | 5.31 | -2.27 | 3.46 | -1.85 | 5.01 | -0.30 | 5.31 | 3.29 | -2.02 | 3.04 | -2.27 | 3.46 | -1.85 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 2.55 | 3.48 | 0.93 | 2.55 | 1.12 | 3.12 | 0.57 | 2.55 | 0.00 | 1.89 | 2.96 | 1.07 | 3.05 | 1.16 | 2.30 | 0.41 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 1.40 | 3.91 | 2.51 | 1.40 | 2.60 | 3.26 | 1.86 | 5.35 | 3.95 | 0.84 | 3.68 | 2.84 | 3.78 | 2.94 | 3.29 | 2.45 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 6.21 | 4.73 | -1.48 | 6.21 | -1.84 | 5.21 | -1.00 | 6.66 | 0.45 | 7.01 | 5.06 | -1.95 | 4.75 | -2.26 | 6.48 | -0.53 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.41 | 3.13 | 0.72 | 2.41 | 0.59 | 3.65 | 1.24 | 2.96 | 0.55 | 2.41 | 3.04 | 0.63 | 2.89 | 0.48 | 3.65 | 1.24 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 5.63 | 4.63 | -1.00 | 5.63 | -0.77 | 5.62 | -0.01 | 7.20 | 1.57 | 5.02 | 4.40 | -0.62 | 4.58 | -0.44 | 5.12 | 0.10 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 5.70 | 4.31 | -1.39 | 5.70 | -1.13 | 4.60 | -1.10 | 5.79 | 0.09 | 5.76 | 4.07 | -1.69 | 4.3 | -1.46 | 4.85 | -0.91 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 6.14 | 4.37 | -1.77 | 6.14 | -1.80 | 5.14 | -1.00 | 5.60 | -0.54 | 6.14 | 4.38 | -1.76 | 4.34 | -1.80 | 5.14 | -1.00 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 3.76 | 3.45 | -0.31 | 3.76 | 0.09 | 3.68 | -0.08 | 2.94 | -0.82 | 5.20 | 3.59 | -1.61 | 4.12 | -1.08 | 4.69 | -0.51 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.01 | 3.73 | -0.28 | 4.01 | -0.34 | 3.92 | -0.09 | 3.06 | -0.95 | 3.34 | 3.25 | -0.09 | 3.19 | -0.15 | 3.82 | 0.48 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 4.10 | 4.85 | 0.75 | 4.10 | 0.95 | 5.52 | 1.42 | 5.85 | 1.75 | 4.67 | 4.90 | 0.23 | 5.12 | 0.45 | 6.06 | 1.39 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 4.19 | 2.95 | -1.24 | 4.19 | -1.07 | 3.06 | -1.13 | 2.98 | -1.21 | 3.10 | 2.46 | -0.64 | 2.35 | -0.75 | 1.93 | -1.17 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 16.20 | 5.25 | -10.95 | 16.20 | -10.27 | 10.85 | -5.35 | 10.33 | -5.87 | 16.20 | 5.26 | -10.94 | 5.93 | -10.27 | 10.85 | -5.35 |
| Jen-Ho Tseng | Cubs | ||||||||||||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 3.00 | 4.39 | 1.39 | 3.00 | 1.03 | 3.74 | 0.74 | 5.09 | 2.09 | 3.00 | 4.39 | 1.39 | 4.03 | 1.03 | 3.74 | 0.74 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 4.99 | 3.58 | -1.41 | 4.99 | -1.56 | 3.57 | -1.42 | 2.54 | -2.45 | 5.97 | 3.54 | -2.43 | 3.37 | -2.60 | 4.07 | -1.90 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 4.28 | 4.21 | -0.07 | 4.28 | 0.21 | 4.07 | -0.21 | 3.57 | -0.71 | 4.03 | 4.00 | -0.03 | 4.18 | 0.15 | 3.31 | -0.72 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 3.73 | 3.14 | -0.59 | 3.73 | -0.66 | 3.05 | -0.68 | 2.66 | -1.07 | 3.82 | 3.53 | -0.29 | 3.6 | -0.22 | 3.30 | -0.52 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 7.03 | 6.56 | -0.47 | 7.03 | -0.06 | 6.29 | -0.74 | 10.23 | 3.20 | 7.52 | 6.53 | -0.99 | 6.6 | -0.92 | 6.95 | -0.57 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 7.01 | 4.28 | -2.73 | 7.01 | -2.99 | 5.22 | -1.79 | 5.03 | -1.98 | 6.20 | 4.18 | -2.02 | 3.83 | -2.37 | 5.24 | -0.96 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 2.11 | 3.09 | 0.98 | 2.11 | 0.94 | 2.34 | 0.23 | 2.40 | 0.29 | 2.38 | 3.14 | 0.76 | 3.28 | 0.90 | 2.49 | 0.11 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 7.52 | 4.14 | -3.38 | 7.52 | -3.73 | 4.40 | -3.12 | 4.50 | -3.02 | 7.15 | 3.89 | -3.26 | 3.54 | -3.61 | 4.27 | -2.88 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 5.00 | 4.84 | -0.16 | 5.00 | 0.14 | 5.54 | 0.54 | 4.08 | -0.92 | 5.00 | 4.84 | -0.16 | 5.14 | 0.14 | 5.54 | 0.54 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 4.36 | 4.28 | -0.08 | 4.36 | 0.38 | 3.83 | -0.53 | 6.24 | 1.88 | 5.24 | 4.43 | -0.81 | 4.6 | -0.64 | 3.97 | -1.27 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 6.00 | 4.31 | -1.69 | 6.00 | -1.75 | 5.03 | -0.97 | 4.54 | -1.46 | 12.60 | 4.69 | -7.91 | 5.25 | -7.35 | 7.57 | -5.03 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 1.63 | 3.56 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 2.00 | 3.39 | 1.76 | 3.28 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 3.56 | 1.71 | 3.6 | 1.75 | 3.58 | 1.73 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 3.38 | 3.60 | 0.22 | 3.38 | 0.05 | 3.17 | -0.21 | 2.65 | -0.73 | 2.37 | 3.40 | 1.03 | 3.31 | 0.94 | 2.74 | 0.37 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 1.50 | 5.03 | 3.53 | 1.50 | 2.90 | 3.33 | 1.83 | 5.19 | 3.69 | 1.50 | 5.03 | 3.53 | 4.4 | 2.90 | 3.33 | 1.83 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 3.41 | 3.88 | 0.47 | 3.41 | 0.04 | 3.23 | -0.18 | 3.90 | 0.49 | 3.95 | 3.77 | -0.18 | 3.22 | -0.73 | 3.35 | -0.60 |
Aaron Nola has a .236 BABIP and 5.6 HR/FB that won’t sustain. The 79.6 LOB% is questionable as well.
Blake Snell has a .238 BABIP and 81.4 LOB%.
Corey Kluber has a .190 BABIP and 90.6 LOB%.
James Paxton has a .349 BABIP.
Luis Castillo has a .349 BABIP, 64.3 LOB%, and 22.6 HR/FB. We really can’t see much in the BABIP table below, but Statcast does a better job of explaining the type of contact he’s been allowing.
Luis Severino has a .236 BABIP and 5.4 HR/FB.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.283 | 0.236 | -0.047 | 51.2% | 19.0% | 13.9% | 86.3% | 34.0% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.293 | 0.364 | 0.071 | 34.5% | 30.9% | 10.5% | 83.7% | 38.3% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.294 | 0.238 | -0.056 | 38.8% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 81.0% | 36.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.290 | 0.241 | -0.049 | 57.3% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 88.7% | 34.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.317 | 0.342 | 0.025 | 51.7% | 23.7% | 10.3% | 86.1% | 40.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.265 | 0.195 | -0.070 | 44.2% | 21.7% | 13.6% | 91.2% | 31.2% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.301 | 0.292 | -0.009 | 33.1% | 21.5% | 10.9% | 87.6% | 37.9% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.282 | 0.238 | -0.044 | 36.9% | 15.5% | 20.0% | 89.7% | 41.5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.381 | 0.090 | 37.8% | 24.4% | 0.0% | 92.2% | 39.6% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.320 | 0.345 | 0.025 | 35.7% | 18.3% | 15.1% | 80.3% | 29.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.290 | 0.303 | 0.013 | 49.3% | 19.9% | 9.5% | 86.4% | 35.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.305 | 0.263 | -0.042 | 26.2% | 21.4% | 16.7% | 84.2% | 44.6% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.307 | 0.349 | 0.042 | 28.1% | 24.7% | 7.1% | 79.2% | 41.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.297 | 0.484 | 0.187 | 32.4% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 87.8% | 35.6% |
| Jen-Ho Tseng | Cubs | 0.271 | |||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.278 | 0.258 | -0.020 | 45.2% | 22.6% | 25.0% | 87.2% | 30.3% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.288 | 0.333 | 0.045 | 43.0% | 24.6% | 13.5% | 84.9% | 39.2% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.292 | 0.303 | 0.011 | 50.4% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 84.3% | 38.1% |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 0.264 | 0.316 | 0.052 | 62.4% | 12.9% | 4.0% | 81.5% | 29.9% |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.296 | 0.237 | -0.059 | 37.6% | 16.8% | 19.6% | 85.4% | 42.0% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.294 | 0.349 | 0.055 | 50.4% | 22.1% | 3.2% | 80.3% | 34.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.283 | 0.236 | -0.047 | 51.8% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 83.8% | 33.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.330 | 0.021 | 60.8% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 88.3% | 30.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.286 | 0.278 | -0.008 | 42.1% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 85.8% | 32.1% |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.315 | 0.302 | -0.013 | 37.8% | 18.4% | 14.0% | 83.1% | 44.1% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.302 | 0.350 | 0.048 | 28.6% | 31.0% | 17.6% | 81.7% | 43.8% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.295 | 0.167 | -0.128 | 44.1% | 18.1% | 10.4% | 89.2% | 31.2% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.294 | 0.306 | 0.012 | 48.9% | 17.0% | 3.3% | 78.7% | 39.7% |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.269 | 0.176 | -0.093 | 52.9% | 23.5% | 25.0% | 88.5% | 38.4% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.274 | 0.330 | 0.056 | 55.7% | 22.7% | 14.3% | 92.7% | 30.6% |
Aaron Nola is generating lots of weak ground balls and a decent amount of popups, but there’s still some regression expected here.
Blake Snell has one of the stronger profiles on the board, but again, the BABIP is too low.
Corey Kluber has a career 85.9 Z-Contact%. Okay, now I may be concerned?
Dylan Bundy has the best BABIP profile on this board, but is at .345?? Fine, some of it’s on his defense, but also why I think he has a strong chance to bounce back tonight.
James Paxton has a high line drive rate, but the second lowest Z-Contact% on the board. That combination is not very common and in fact, you see it just three times, all with left-handed pitchers, two who are very curveball heavy. Not that that’s any correlation to immediately be made. The point is, it seems a bit fluky, though we do see below that he’s allowed more hard contact than expected and his xwOBA is surprisingly above .300.
Lance McCullers Jr. has a .325 career BABIP, but a pretty strong profile this year. Should be interesting to see how this goes. He and Dylan Bundy are the only two pitchers on the board who combine elite Z-Contact and Z-O-Swing rates, though both have BABIPs well above .300. How fluky does that seem?
Luis Severino has a nice profile, but as said about a few guys today, they’re still just too low.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.265 | -0.036 | 0.261 | -0.001 | 0.253 | -0.041 | 0.0 | 86.2 | 2.4 | 30.4 | 125 |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 0.318 | 0.016 | 0.435 | 0.039 | 0.318 | 0.016 | -1.4 | 83.6 | 10.3 | 34.5 | 58 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 0.294 | -0.041 | 0.281 | -0.018 | 0.275 | -0.040 | 0.3 | 85.7 | 6.7 | 25.7 | 105 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.292 | -0.037 | 0.280 | -0.001 | 0.289 | -0.037 | -1.8 | 84 | 2.7 | 25.7 | 113 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.357 | 0.018 | 0.319 | 0.021 | 0.395 | 0.008 | -2.0 | 89.7 | 6.7 | 36.7 | 120 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.297 | -0.066 | 0.301 | -0.039 | 0.287 | -0.057 | -0.5 | 88 | 9.9 | 34.4 | 131 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.401 | -0.040 | 0.327 | -0.005 | 0.385 | -0.030 | 0.4 | 89.5 | 9.0 | 42.6 | 122 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.355 | -0.040 | 0.396 | 0.007 | 0.365 | -0.041 | -0.9 | 91.2 | 10.6 | 45.9 | 85 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | 0.392 | 0.007 | 0.321 | -0.004 | 0.392 | 0.007 | -2.6 | 91.3 | 13.3 | 31.1 | 45 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.343 | -0.011 | 0.314 | -0.013 | 0.375 | 0.000 | -1.4 | 88.7 | 11.2 | 37.1 | 116 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.357 | -0.042 | 0.355 | -0.010 | 0.340 | -0.033 | -1.3 | 90.9 | 8.0 | 45.7 | 138 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.363 | -0.021 | 0.327 | -0.019 | 0.387 | -0.017 | -1.3 | 89 | 13.1 | 41.1 | 107 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.310 | -0.001 | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.295 | -0.003 | -0.4 | 88.4 | 11.0 | 40.7 | 91 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.501 | 0.073 | 0.354 | -0.015 | 0.501 | 0.073 | -0.9 | 86.7 | 13.9 | 33.3 | 36 |
| Jen-Ho Tseng | Cubs | 0.404 | 0.088 | |||||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Nationals | 0.335 | -0.052 | 0.337 | -0.014 | 0.335 | -0.052 | -1.1 | 86.4 | 7.8 | 28.1 | 64 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.307 | 0.017 | 0.296 | 0.016 | 0.315 | 0.034 | 0.4 | 87.8 | 5.2 | 36.2 | 116 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.341 | -0.028 | 0.358 | -0.063 | 0.341 | -0.045 | -0.7 | 90.4 | 7.3 | 38.2 | 123 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 0.278 | 0.013 | 0.322 | -0.004 | 0.293 | -0.017 | -1.0 | 89.1 | 5.9 | 36.6 | 101 |
| Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 0.379 | -0.031 | 0.320 | -0.012 | 0.377 | -0.018 | 0.1 | 90.1 | 5.9 | 36.6 | 101 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.380 | -0.001 | 0.284 | 0.015 | 0.395 | -0.014 | -1.6 | 90.5 | 10.6 | 42.5 | 113 |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | 0.282 | -0.060 | 0.296 | -0.037 | 0.304 | -0.066 | -0.5 | 88 | 7.1 | 34.8 | 112 |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 0.399 | -0.056 | 0.317 | -0.020 | 0.415 | -0.061 | -1.1 | 92.7 | 11.5 | 57.7 | 104 |
| Mike Fiers | Tigers | 0.368 | -0.028 | 0.334 | 0.028 | 0.368 | -0.028 | -0.7 | 89.3 | 11.5 | 36.5 | 96 |
| Mike Minor | Rangers | 0.364 | -0.025 | 0.280 | 0.013 | 0.359 | -0.014 | -1.2 | 90.3 | 11.1 | 43.4 | 99 |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | 0.414 | -0.042 | 0.299 | -0.028 | 0.412 | 0.012 | -0.8 | 89 | 14.0 | 41.9 | 43 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 0.295 | -0.096 | 0.316 | -0.035 | 0.313 | -0.099 | 0.2 | 87.7 | 6.9 | 35.9 | 131 |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | 0.271 | 0.014 | 0.292 | -0.005 | 0.247 | 0.018 | -0.9 | 87.2 | 3.4 | 31.8 | 88 |
| Wade Miley | Brewers | 0.332 | -0.121 | 0.354 | -0.002 | 0.332 | -0.121 | -0.4 | ||||
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.335 | -0.035 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 0.323 | -0.001 | -1.2 | 88.8 | 7.1 | 38.4 | 99 |
More than a quarter of the board is below a .300 xwOBA.
Corey Kluber has just the eighth best xwOBA on the board. His aEV is up three miles per hour from last season. His launch angle is up two degrees. He’s already exactly half way to his entire barrels count from last year with a rate that’s nearly doubled per batted ball. His hard hit rate (via Statcast) is up five points.
Lance McCullers proves that you don’t have to do much else when combining an elite strikeout rate with an elite ground ball one.
Marcus Stroman finally has his xwOBA below .400 due to a league average strikeout rate and 60.8 GB%, but those EV numbers still stand way out.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
James Paxton (1) has suffered a bit when batters have put it in play, but the quick way to solve that is not to let them to. He’s struck out half the batters he’s faced last two times out and only used 105 pitches to get 16 with an extra day off until this start. The upside is obviously through the roof with him in a spot that may be better than perceived with his reverse split tendencies.
Value Tier Two
Aaron Nola (2t) is only the fourth (or fifth) highest priced pitcher and while his weakness appears to be swings and misses, at least relative to the rest of the board, that, too, has been increasing and he’s been just about the best at everything else.
Blake Snell (6) was going to be the guy today in a halfway decent spot for less than $9K. I feel confident is saying that he’s arrived. Imagine if Chris Archer generated weak contact. The Braves knock him down a peg, and yes, it still feels so strange to say that.
Value Tier Three
Lance McCullers Jr. (4t) is someone you certainly love the upside in tonight and especially that he’s going deeper in games. While strikeouts and velocity have been trending down the last few starts, the SwStr% gives us hope and the ground ball rate adds some insurance. There is some danger here as well as the A’s hit the ball hard and he occasionally loses control. Lean more towards the high side, but this can go boom or bust and he’s the second highest priced pitcher on DraftKings. I might consider bumping him up for $2.2K less on FanDuel, where he’s closer in price to the two above him.
Luis Severino (4t) costs $10K on either site. He struggles against the Red Sox in his lone start against him this season, but it’s the only start he’s struggled in and Yankee Stadium is actually a more neutral run environment than Fenway. This is a tough spot, no doubt, but he’s earned the right to be considered in almost any spot after what he’s done in two similarly tough ones last two times out.
Dylan Bundy (7) has the highest SwStr% on the board. He’s been pummeled in two straight starts, but I think they may have just been matchup problems. One concern is that his velocity was down last start, but we need at least two in a row before that’s a trend. The other concern may be that this is not a high strikeout upside spot, but it also plays against his weakness in an offense without power and he’s down below $9K on either site.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Sean Newcomb (8t) is a pitcher I really like if he can throw strikes consistently. I’m just really concerned about his ability to use his fastball effectively in this matchup. It’s not something that really shows in the numbers presented here, but you can read about how the Rays made a conscious effort to improve their performance against fastballs and that’s two-thirds of his game.
Corey Kluber (2t) is the highest priced pitcher on the board. Nobody else is even close. He has a quality matchup by the numbers this year despite the reputation of the names in the lineup and reputation of the park that plays more power than run friendly. You know you’ll get innings and it’s not that he’s been bad at all. It’s not even that his estimators are bad. He remains an option and one players should consider if ownership is low enough. However, if he seems to be trending a bit high, there are enough reasons to fade tonight.
Zack Godley (8t) is missing a few less bats than last season, but we’re still talking about a strong ground ball rate and above average strikeouts. The Dodgers are tough, but it’s a pitcher’s park and the cost is reasonable.
Luis Castillo costs too little for the amount of upside he has. It’s understandable given the results, but he doesn’t have to do too much to cover this low price. There are reasons, but I’ve never seen someone with such an ability to miss bats and generate ground balls get hit so hard. Without parallel bat missing skills, “(player-popup #marcus-stroman)Marcus Stroman”:/players/marcus-stroman-16408’s 2018 might be the closest comp.
Jose Urena isn’t a terrible arm at a low price. He misses some bats and can give you a seven inning start, which is way more than you can say for most arms at his current price in a reasonable spot. A bad wind report could kill this deal though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.